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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2800 on: July 06, 2019, 01:10:25 AM »
Quote
Steve Jobs Commentary (@tesla_truth) 7/5/19, 3:17 PM
Why are Tesla shorts so angry?
Take a look at the green screenshot. A Tesla short sent me this less than a month ago on June 11. They were up $18,779.
Right now that same position is down $28,125. In less than a month!
he lost the $18k he thought he made + another $10k

https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1147222919572967424
- And he knows it’s just getting started.
That’s why they’re so angry. That’s why they’re calling my office and threatening me. That’s why people think they might have hit @teslaownersSV car on purpose.
Violence is not the answer. Just close your position.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2801 on: July 06, 2019, 01:18:01 AM »
Seasonal Adjustment

Quote
James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) 7/5/19, 12:19 PM
...since car sales can be pretty volatile from one month to the next, I seasonally-adjusted these charts using 12-trailing month averages (Premium brands’ U.S. unit sales trend since Jan 2018).
Remarkable how Tesla is growing so rapidly with only 3 models!

https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1147178320167092224
Source: goodcarbadcar.net
Microchart template by: flourish.studio
Live link: public.flourish.studio/visualisation/…
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2802 on: July 06, 2019, 01:30:12 AM »
Quote
Able Lawrence|ഏബിൾ ലോറെൻസ് |ایبل لورنس|एबिल लॉरेंस (@abledoc) 7/3/19, 2:32 PM
Tesla surprisingly maintains its market share despite scorching growth in EV markets.
a) Tesla is growing at gravity defying rates
b) Competition is slow to respond.
https://twitter.com/abledoc/status/1146486775835025408
Blue & green bar chart below. Additional links at the link.


———
By Model
Quote
Mase Goslin (@masegoslin) 7/4/19, 12:05 PM
Updated for June 2019 US Plugin EV Sales!
youtu.be/hn_-EcghNvE
https://twitter.com/masegoslin/status/1146812354111275008
Image below. Amazing Gif at the link!

By Brand
Quote
Mase Goslin (@masegoslin) 7/4/19, 12:05 PM
Updated for June 2019 US Plugin EV Sales by Brand!
youtu.be/NOcN-ARXKK8
https://twitter.com/masegoslin/status/1146812356254507009
Image below. Amazing Gif at the link!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2803 on: July 06, 2019, 02:00:23 AM »
During this time of transition, Elon Musk is the most experienced auto CEO.

List below from:
https://twitter.com/alpsoy66/status/1147194565843128320

Several recent departures:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=2686.msg211204#msg211204
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2804 on: July 06, 2019, 03:27:14 AM »
Quote
During this time of transition, Elon Musk is the most experienced auto CEO.

The irony is hilarious.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2805 on: July 06, 2019, 01:27:59 PM »
Wait, what?

I've seen a lot of charging graphs but no car i've seen has ever done that.

Well if you will not believe me, perhaps you will believe someone else.

As, apparently, I have no clue what I am talking about.


Tesla YouTuber Bjørn Nyland breaks 24-hour electric car distance record — 2,781km
 Jul. 5th 2019 4:29 pm ET
Quote


Nyland focused on driving quickly and charging only up to 50% or so, in order to keep charge rates as fast as possible.  Most EV quick chargers “taper” at high state-of-charge, such that charging rates slow down as the battery gets more full.  For faster road tripping, it’s better to leave before your battery gets completely full. …
https://electrek.co/2019/07/05/tesla-youtuber-breaks-24-hour-electric-car-distance-record/

As I stated before and backed up by numerous studies, the fastest way to kill your Lion cells is to deep discharge them and then partially recharge them then deep discharge them again.

Sadly it is also the fastest way to get extra mileage into your EV.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2806 on: July 06, 2019, 01:42:54 PM »
That's awfully similar to what i said, no?

I don't think this applies to Li-ion cells, but let's assume you are right. There is a BMS managing this stuff.

The fact is, if you plug it in with 0% it will have a charging curve, ramping up slowly, charge at high speed for some time and will temper down towards the end (depending on factors like battery temperature for example).

So if you do a long trip, you would not charge from 0 to 100%. You would arrive at the next SC with 10% and stop charging at 70%. That way you have max charging speed. You don't have to go through the ramping up/tempering down phase because you can avoid the 0-10 and 70-100 per cent phase.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2807 on: July 06, 2019, 04:35:21 PM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 5/26/18, 3:19 PM
A Tesla has a usable reserve of 5 to 15 miles range even after the battery reads “empty”. This will not hurt the pack.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1000456410944061440
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2808 on: July 06, 2019, 05:05:02 PM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 5/26/18, 3:19 PM
A Tesla has a usable reserve of 5 to 15 miles range even after the battery reads “empty”. This will not hurt the pack.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1000456410944061440

That is missing the qualifying statement. "any more than you already have done by driving it down to 0%".

I shall give up for now, carry on telling everyone that EV's are now exactly the same as FF vehicles if you want, not my problem.

At lunch on Wednesday I brought up the positive side of EV with my family. Every one of them, technicians all, said the same thing.  "The 2 or 3 journeys I make a year,. which cannot be fuelled with the current range, means we can't buy one".

But don't let that stop you.  Be my guest.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2809 on: July 06, 2019, 06:01:47 PM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 5/26/18, 3:19 PM
A Tesla has a usable reserve of 5 to 15 miles range even after the battery reads “empty”. This will not hurt the pack.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1000456410944061440
That is missing the qualifying statement. "any more than you already have done by driving it down to 0%".
And which is:  not optimal, but not significant.

Quote
At lunch on Wednesday I brought up the positive side of EV with my family. Every one of them, technicians all, said the same thing.  "The 2 or 3 journeys I make a year,. which cannot be fuelled with the current range, means we can't buy one".
After they discover restrictions preventing them from driving their ICE cars where they want, and they’ve made several Emergency Room visits for their children’s asthma attacks, let’s see which EV they choose in order to make long trips possible with only minimal sacrifice.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2810 on: July 06, 2019, 06:38:00 PM »
I don't even understand Neils argument honestly.

If the statement is, that batteries are empty when they are empty, i have to agree. I don't see another point made.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2811 on: July 06, 2019, 09:00:24 PM »
I get Neil's two points perfectly:
* Discharging to 10% or less and then supercharging to 50%-70% several times on a long road trip will shorten battery life.
* A long road trip will be less convenient with an EV than with an ICE car.

I agree with both points, yet disagree with the resulting conclusion. I think having such road trip 2-3 times a year will not shorten battery life significantly. And the inconvenience of an EV is not so serious when you can charge as quickly as in the examples given upthread.
OTOH, the advantages of a good EV for the other 362 days of the year are very significant- quieter, cleaner, more powerful, much cheaper to operate and maintain, charge at home, and you do your part to avoid polluting our home planet.
« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 12:37:00 AM by oren »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2812 on: July 06, 2019, 09:29:05 PM »
Thanks, Oren for the translation.

If you do only a few supercharges a year, i doubt degradation is even measurable. The Tesla batteries have shown to work for a very long time. And when after 200 k miles the battery is bad, you can renew it. I mean, even internal combustion engines break after that kind of mileage. it has happened. So yeah, using it will cause degradation. Seriously, i don't see the argument.

The 'A long road trip will be less convenient with an EV than with an ICE car.' argument is wrong. People think it's like that, but it's not grounded in reality! People have driven ICE cars for so long and are fed up with anti EV propaganda. This perception will change dramatically when people see the reality.

And the reality is:

very significant- quieter, cleaner, more powerful, much cheaper to operate and maintain, charge at home, and you do your part to avoid polluting our home planet.




Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2813 on: July 07, 2019, 03:02:07 PM »
Some of the least-degraded Tesla batteries have been supercharged almost every day!  The Tesla’s Battery Management Software is smarter than its owners, and takes great care of the battery.  It controls charging and discharging to minimize risk to the pack.  It warns of the danger when selecting Ludicrous mode;  pre-heats the battery to condition it before supercharging on your selected route; and heats and cools it as needed even when the car is “turned off.”

In a Tesla, “Empty” does not mean “empty.” ;)  Tesla takes human factors into account by keeping reserve energy (and will drive only at reduced power) even when the display says 0% — and if you try to push it, the car quietly shuts itself down before a dangerous state is reached.

Not only is the car acutely aware of the state of the battery, it even diagnoses potential problems, orders a replacement part, and notifies the driver to arrange for service!

[Mind those pod bay doors, Dave! ]

Quote
Tesla (@Tesla) 5/6/19, 2:16 PM
Yep, our cars can keep tabs on certain components to let you know if they need replacing and order parts ahead of your next service visit.
Like skipping the doctor and going right to the pharmacy.
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1125464350754471936

Tesla Vehicles Can Now Diagnose Problems and Order Replacement Parts Autonomously
Quote
Tesla vehicles not only have the ability to drive themselves in select situations, but they can also apparently order replacement parts for problems you may not even know exist. Much like a T-1000 Terminator can fix problems on the fly, Tesla's EV lineup may now be able to self-identify maintenance needs and order parts to fix them. 

Reddit user houston_wehaveaprblm posted a photo, apparently taken from the infotainment screen of a Model 3, that shows a notification of a problem with the car's power conversion system. The car has not only self-diagnosed this problem but has also ordered replacement parts for installation at a Tesla service center. Other users in the thread chimed in to confirm that their vehicles have recently notified them of service issues as well. …
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/27826/tesla-vehicles-can-now-diagnose-problems-and-order-replacement-parts-autonomously
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2814 on: July 07, 2019, 06:11:03 PM »
NeilT I think you are applying general purpose rules to a specific use case.

Li+ batteries degrade most when fully charged, when fully discharged, when charged too fast, when charged too slow, and when it reaches temperatures outside their normal operating range. Damage to Li+batteries is accumulative and so far, irreversible.

To maximize battery life the Battery Management System (BMS) actively avoids situations where batteries are damaged.

First and foremost, Battery temperatures are highly managed. If temperatures exceed the optimal operating temperature the BMS limits the charge and discharge rates to avoid battery damage.

Charge and discharge  only happen it rates that are safe for the battery. The car will not charge faster than it is safe to do so according to temperature and state of charge. The same for discharge. If the battery is too low, hot, or cold the BMS will discharge only what it is safe to discharge.

This leaves max and minimum charge degradation. One must assume that the BMS reserves true max capacity and true min capacity. User can't charge to the true max or discharge to the true min. So the worst degradation is immediately eliminated.

Max charge takes a long time to reach ( hours for the last few percentage points) so most of the degradation that comes from charging to max is eliminated by charging very slowly. It is inconvenient and it is warned against, so 100% charging is kept to a minimal

Min charge will likely be used more often, however, not many people will let the car discharge below 5%, so this happens rarely. Further more, the BMS limits the discharge rate when the state of charge is very low, further limiting the damage.

To finish, because the BMS is there to prevent the user from harming the battery, most battery failures will be factory defects at the cell levels, but because Teslas have thousands of cells, if a cell has a defect it can be simply cut off from the system. One battery out of thousands is insignificant. Several batteries in the lifetime of the vehicle is significant but the battery remains fully functional.

NealT you are mostly correct about battery degradation but you underestimate the BMS and slight changes to battery chemistry that optimizes the life of the battery for Automotive use.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2815 on: July 07, 2019, 06:34:23 PM »
NealT you are mostly correct about battery degradation but you underestimate the BMS and slight changes to battery chemistry that optimizes the life of the battery for Automotive use.

This, and using the word 'cell' and 'battery' (with BMS) interchangeable, which you can't.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2816 on: July 08, 2019, 01:58:33 AM »
I get what you are saying.  I understand it fully.

But the two scenarios I was pointing out are extremes which are being put forward as reasons why people will be able to use EV's for everything, including extreme situations.

Above has just reiterated what I said about 350kw supercharging.  The BMS restricts the charge when the charge power causes too much heat.

So what is happening when an entire pack of cells charges from 2% to 90% 10 to 15 minutes faster than the manufacturer says the cells can be charged.  At 2% you do not have enough cells already at 100% to allow other cells to charge only to 70%

Unless, of course, the BMS is only allowing 70% usage of each cells power in the first place?

Li+ are, so I read, most damaged by going below 20% and the damage increases the lower you go. As has been said, this damage is physical and irreversible.

So claiming that you can drive long and fast by charging the pack to 50% repeatedly, as a solution to more range for endurance driving, only works if you see your pack as a disposable resource.

Never mind the fact that driving at 100+ mph for long distances means you are close to charging the car every hour. On a long journey this is exceedingly irksome.

Nothing but time and experience will close these questions.  However, in my experience, if we want to put this to bed forever, standard range will need to extend ro 450 miles. It is within our grasp, but whilst we focus on how "smart" people can "make it work", we are not going to make that 450 miles.

Let's face it, being smart requires effort, planning and using the braincells we were born with. Very few of the general consomers want to put this kind of effort into their commuting and driving life.

Let us recognese that and move on.

Let us, instead, look forward to 2020 when Tesla will manufacture and sell, more cars than JLR and All Tesla cars will be EV,  making the iPace exactly what it is.  An afterthought to try and get into Tesla's market.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2817 on: July 08, 2019, 02:41:15 AM »
Here’s a retelling of a recent “unplanned” 540-mile (869 km) trip in a Tesla.  Desert temperatures and traffic jams — but no deep discharge or 100% charge needed.  Was it exactly the same as an ICE car trip would be?  No.  It was, in many respects, better.

Vegas, Baby! Los Angeles To Vegas & Back In A Tesla Model 3 — 8 Hours Of Driving & 70 Minutes Of Charging
Quote
Road trips rarely consist of scripted fueling stops, nicely packed sack lunches, and firm itineraries, so when EV enthusiast Dennis Pascual and I decided to make the 540-mile run from Los Angeles to Las Vegas and back, we intentionally shot from the hip. The quintessential road trip from LA to Vegas is a staple coming-of-age trip that thousands of youngsters embark on every week.

This Demands A Response
The trip was necessary to respond to the sensationalist headline from the EV road trip undertaken by one New York Times journalist claiming that the 8-hour drive required 5 hours of EV charging. In the real world, the majority of EVs sold can do the trip in much less time, with far less time spent charging. So we met up at the predetermined starting point of our journey in downtown Los Angeles, jumped into our trusty Tesla Model 3 with just 333 kilometers of range (525 kilometers is what’s available on a full charge), and hit the road. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/07/vegas-baby-vegas-8-hours-of-driving-70-minutes-of-charging/
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2818 on: July 08, 2019, 08:28:02 AM »
The margins and sales mix, H2 18 vs H2 19, prove how BK Tesla is. SUPER. It is all over but the crying. Morons, who thing demand is independent of price will think things are great. LOL.

Watching this thread is like looking at kids discuss "is the moon is made off swiss or cheddar?
" AND GO INTO GREAT DETAIL DISCUSSING THE VARIABLES. OMFG.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 09:09:40 AM by GoSouthYoungins »
big time oops

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2819 on: July 08, 2019, 08:52:12 AM »
If you hate this thread so much just stop reading and commenting.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2820 on: July 08, 2019, 09:08:59 AM »
If you hate this thread so much just stop reading and commenting.

When did I ever say I hated watching self-righteous-idiots prove their stupidity? NEVER!!!
big time oops

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2821 on: July 08, 2019, 09:09:24 AM »
So what is happening when an entire pack of cells charges from 2% to 90% 10 to 15 minutes faster than the manufacturer says the cells can be charged.  At 2% you do not have enough cells already at 100% to allow other cells to charge only to 70%

You don't understand what the BMS does.

Once again: You don't charge cells. You charge a battery. The BMS knows something about the cells and is charging them accordingly.

You plug in, come back later and it's charged. You don't need to care about cells.




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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2822 on: July 08, 2019, 09:13:21 AM »
so many graphs...so little thought.
big time oops

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2823 on: July 08, 2019, 09:14:19 AM »
self-righteous-idiots prove their stupidity?

So we are in the insulting people phase again?

I reported your post to Neven. I hope he is putting you on moderation again or even better kill your account.

You are only here for trolling. There can't be any doubt about that anymore.

Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2824 on: July 08, 2019, 09:35:26 AM »
Quote
I reported your post to Neven. I hope he is putting you on moderation again or even better kill your account.

I'm always slow with putting people on moderation, but I draw the line at repeated insults (especially if they are indirect, and thus cowardly). Knock it off, GSY. Save the insults for when you are proven right.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2825 on: July 08, 2019, 10:35:03 AM »
Quote
So what is happening when an entire pack of cells charges from 2% to 90% 10 to 15 minutes faster than the manufacturer says the cells can be charged.

As others have pointed out the BMS set by the manufacturer controls the charge profile at the cell level. You can not exceed the specs the manufactures had programmed into the BMS no matter how hard you try short of recodeing the BMS in which case you void your warranty.
After 8 years and millions of data points dont ya think that the worlds experts at automotive traction battery tech at Tesla inc know what they are doing?
They have increased both the speed the cars can change at and their supercharges ratings after over two billion miles  of real world testing by actual end users not just some boffins playing around in a lab. Tesla gets batteries from Panasonic for the cars that are to their own formula  and unless it was testing a Tesla battery whatever you are reading  does not apply.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 11:06:09 AM by KiwiGriff »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2826 on: July 08, 2019, 11:21:30 AM »
I pointed out yesterday that a degraded battery can be replaced.

I forgot to mention, this degraded, down to 70% capacity battery will still have market value. You can still use it for a variety of use cases.

The 'the battery will degrade' argument is absolutely negligible.



KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2827 on: July 08, 2019, 11:29:38 AM »
The Tesla architecture is in modules so if you need to rejuvenate your Tesla's battery you only need to replace the under preforming  modules not the entire battery set.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2828 on: July 08, 2019, 11:36:20 AM »
Is that right, KiwiGriff? I didn't know that.

Isn't the pack horribly glued together? That was my takeaway from the Munro videos.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2829 on: July 08, 2019, 12:31:52 PM »
Quote
USED Modules from 85 kwatt Tesla Model S battery packs.  The modules consist of 444 Panasonic 18650NCR cells  3400 mAh nominal capacity. Dismantled from Tesla model S with less then 60.000 km

    dimensions: 685 x 300 (280) x 75 mm (l x w x h).
    Weight: 25 kg
    Voltage range: 24,9 vdc to 18,6 VDC
    Capacity: 5,3 kwhr
    Wiring and original BMS PCB board still included.

https://eveurope.eu/en/product/tesla-model-s-module-53-kwhr-24/

I understand that Tesla replaces the entire battery under warranty but only guarantees to supply a  unit with pro rata performance so is probably replacing the modules as needed to make up the replacement battery's.

I do not think the modules them self's are able to have individual cells replaced.

The model three has a different architecture but still modular in design.
Model 3 modules seen in this vid .
https://evannex.com/blogs/news/tesla-s-battery-pack-is-both-mysterious-and-alluring-work-in-progress.

Hopefully when my present storage system expires in five or so years Tesla or similar battery systems  packaged with suitable inverters will be an affordable alternative to replace lead acid off grid .
 





 
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 01:22:05 PM by KiwiGriff »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2830 on: July 08, 2019, 12:33:22 PM »
Thanks for the links KiwiGriff! :)

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2831 on: July 08, 2019, 01:09:03 PM »
Thank you for making me look for them.
I was aware they were modular but do not know any more .

edit I found this discussion of the monitoring hardware in the pack fascinating.
http://evtv.me/2018/05/tesla-model-3-gone-battshit/


Quote
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Clarke's First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 01:43:23 PM by KiwiGriff »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2832 on: July 08, 2019, 01:43:41 PM »
Elon twittered about battery module replacement a few months ago.  :)

Tesla Model 3 battery module replacements to cost $5k to $7k, says Elon Musk
Quote
The Tesla Model 3 is a car that is built to last. This is something that was highlighted by Elon Musk this Saturday when he discussed some aspects of the Model 3, including its drive unit, body, and battery modules on Twitter.

Quite interesting in Musk’s post was his mention of battery module replacements. The CEO stated that current Model 3 battery modules should last 300,000 to 500,000 miles, which is the equivalent of 1,500 cycles. After this, the battery modules could be replaced, and it will cost roughly $5,000 to $7,000.

Replacing battery modules instead of the whole pack is a pretty clever strategy for Tesla, considering that it saves electric car owners from having to purchase a completely different battery pack once some modules lose their capability to perform optimally. With this system in place, the costs associated with battery replacements will get significantly reduced. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-battery-module-replacements-elon-musk/
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2833 on: July 08, 2019, 01:56:54 PM »
Wanna talk real life? Listen to the people driving EVs.

Wanna be fooled? Listen to the mainstream media brainwashing.

How Tesla won over Porsche in an 800 km race


Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2834 on: July 08, 2019, 02:00:54 PM »
Imagine how much less desirable “dumb” ICE cars will be when Teslas have full self driving capability.  It will be like trying to sell a car today with a manual crank start, one gear, and no windows. New and re-sale prices will plummet.

Quote
Lex Fridman (@lexfridman) 7/7/19, 11:01 AM
Over 528,000 Tesla vehicles with Autopilot HW2+ delivered to-date. The possibilities for Autopilot at such a large scale are exciting, esp for driver safety. Good luck to @elonmusk and @Tesla team in tackling this important engineering challenge. Details: hcai.mit.edu/tesla-autopilo… pic.twitter.com/WhI1G4i6O6
https://twitter.com/lexfridman/status/1147883392412917760

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 7/7/19, 11:18 PM
All HW2+ cars are upgradable to full self-driving capability with Tesla FSD computer & all production in past few months has FSD computer
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1148068888522842113
< Any way to tell if you already got HW3 installed if you bought the car in the past few months?
EM: Production fully switched over ~3 months ago. Functionality won’t diverge until Q4, as it’s limited by software validation. Will be later for Europe compared to rest of world due to regulatory constraints that were put in place years ago by big ICE companies.
Disruption Research (@DisruptResearch) 7/7/19, 11:35 PM
Do consumers have limited time left to buy a Tesla car, since prices would have to go up severalfold to balance supply & demand once you solve FSD?
EM: Yes

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 7/8/19, 1:49 AM
To be clear, consumers will still be able to buy a Tesla, but the clearing price will rise significantly, as a fully autonomous car that can function as a robotaxi is several times more valuable than a non-autonomous car
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1148106891270115328
DR: Totally. Otherwise, profits will end up going to scalpers and there will be a multi-year waitlist. The right clearing price will help Tesla accelerate growth & mission by massively expanding capacity.
EM: Exactly

< My only concern is that when Tesla, wall street and investors get addicted to huge profits, then it will become very difficult for Tesla to roll down the prices. I would hate Tesla car to be affordable only to rich people and fleet owners.
< Please don’t forget the mission. Stay cash neutral, until mass adoption takes place.
If the EV costs go up, Customers will continue to buy from ICE companies. Tesla now has the know-how to build new factories in record time. Its time to walk the talk.
Disruption Research (@DisruptResearch)7/8/19, 12:32 AM
Balancing supply & demand with the right (and higher) price is actually on-mission, because it would give Tesla more cash to expand capacity. There’s billions of ICE cars that need to go.
https://twitter.com/disruptresearch/status/1148087401585283072
<< If you follow the theory, they would expand capacity to meet the higher demand and this the prices would eventually come back down….


< This stands in stark contrast to Tesla's goal to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy, as it makes Teslas unaffordable for most people and just allows for the rich to have an additional income source... That is very disappointing
DR: To the contrary, balancing supply & demand with the right (and higher) price supports the mission, because it would give Tesla more cash to dramatically expand capacity. There’s billions of ICE cars that need to go. And robotaxis will be very affordable for the masses to use.
https://twitter.com/disruptresearch/status/1148105293496225793

< Are you saying you may stop producing Tesla's for the public so you can ramp the robotaxis?
DR:  Even if it's technically still available for the public to purchase, I think prices would have to go up VERY materially. The alternative is a multi-year waitlist and excess profits going to scalpers. No choice for Tesla but to balance supply & demand.
https://twitter.com/disruptresearch/status/1148074447141834753
< The FSD option in the future might cost $20k+ but the base car price will likely be the same $35k
<< This is how I see it happening in the beginning. Will change as self driving cars become legal and adopted throughout different markets.

Disruption Research (@DisruptResearch)
Please consider creating an institutional investment product for Tesla FSD. Could allow the co to collect E[NPV/car] (eg $200K) upfront. Dramatically pulls cashflows forward with no debt & equity raised, which should free up more room for capex, accelerating growth & mission.
https://twitter.com/disruptresearch/status/1148086907773104128
< What does this mean, @DisruptResearch an institutional investment product for FSD alone
Quote
Disruption Research (@DisruptResearch) 4/23/19, 1:14 AM
     This will be a fascinating corporate finance problem of UNPRECEDENTED SCALE. Best way is probably to open up car purchases to institutional investors (who would rent the car out 100% of the time) and set a revenue share ratio that targets ~10% IRR for the investor
     - This way, 1) most of value accretes to Tesla 2) fleet utilization is maximized, along with NPV and climate impact 3) removes need for debt financing since investor pays to buy car upfront 4) minimizes $TSLA equity dilution 5) 10% is a fine return for an asset-backed investment
      - In ~3 years, Tesla will reach 2M annual production/year. If all of it went into fulltime robotaxis, the pretax “value created” that year would be ( $200K NPV - $35K car cost) * 2M = $330B. In one year.
      < It's like a convertible on a distant preferred stock (based on a very high stock price) with the bond residing on the buyer's balance sheet. Don't think that's gonna sell, otherwise stock price would be much higher already.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2835 on: July 08, 2019, 02:01:04 PM »
self-righteous-idiots prove their stupidity?

So we are in the insulting people phase again?

I reported your post to Neven. I hope he is putting you on moderation again or even better kill your account.

You are only here for trolling. There can't be any doubt about that anymore.

Yep it really annoys me because we're both trying to get our points across and this does NOT help...

I'll reply to your reply to me.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2836 on: July 08, 2019, 03:46:35 PM »
Wanna talk real life? Listen to the people driving EVs.
...

From the video:  “It’s the people who don’t own an EV, or a Tesla, who are most worried about range and charging speed.”
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2837 on: July 08, 2019, 05:10:00 PM »
Review of a Tesla Model 3 for “those of a certain generation.”
Quentin Wilson

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Ken Feldman

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2838 on: July 08, 2019, 06:43:55 PM »
Interesting article that shows how quickly the Tesla supercharging network has grown:

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/06/tesla-supercharger-networks-evolution/

In 2013, there were 8 in the US.



Now there are more than 13,000 around the world.






Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2839 on: July 08, 2019, 07:37:05 PM »
Re the question about opening a Tesla battery.  This video of taking a Tesla Model S battery apart was posted a year or so ago (I knew to internet search for "congressman" ...:
https://blog.hackster.io/kentucky-congressman-converts-a-tesla-model-s-into-a-home-powerwall-72604188c286
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2840 on: July 09, 2019, 04:14:17 AM »
It is quite the feat to reduce the ASP by (guessing) $5k per model, and still sell less cars. Anyone with the slightest understanding of a demand curve will understanding that this means that the demand for Tesla's is super thin and was filled within 2 quarters of sub 5k/wk production.

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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2841 on: July 09, 2019, 04:19:52 AM »
Lets guess at the loss Tesla will post in Q2!

I'm going with $350-$400M.

I'm not using any math from figures specific to the quarter, just following the long term trend of mini profits with a new model, followed by ebb back to flamethrower-to-cash land.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2842 on: July 09, 2019, 04:23:57 AM »
So we are in the insulting people phase again?

You literally made a post that suggested I stop posting, and nothing else. I'm sure you were trying to get a response of sunshine and rainbows...
big time oops

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2843 on: July 09, 2019, 08:08:43 AM »
(I knew to internet search for "congressman" ...:

"You don't find things on the internet, you stumble upon them."

But remembering such a special detail is a game changer!! ;)

Thanks for the link, Tor.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2844 on: July 09, 2019, 08:45:37 AM »
Lets guess at the loss Tesla will post in Q2!

I'm going with $350-$400M.

I'm not using any math from figures specific to the quarter, just following the long term trend of mini profits with a new model, followed by ebb back to flamethrower-to-cash land.

135k in 26 weeks is 5.2k/week, isn't it? ;)

Q1 4.8k/week on average
Q2 5.6k/week on average

I think they have demand issues with model S/X, for Model 3 it's more difficult to say.
I think they'll see a surge in demand in the Netherlands, because fiscal rules change again and most electric cars have too long delivery times; It shows how strange the market is, demand is mostly driven by fiscal rules...

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2845 on: July 09, 2019, 12:27:18 PM »
Wait for the SEC filing and their own blah blah.
But I don't think Qu 2 will be so bad.

Sill be looking at ex-SolarCity stuff to see if the promised up-tick in activity is there.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2846 on: July 09, 2019, 01:10:52 PM »
Lets guess at the loss Tesla will post in Q2!

I'm going with $350-$400M.

I'm not using any math from figures specific to the quarter, just following the long term trend of mini profits with a new model, followed by ebb back to flamethrower-to-cash land.

If you were just following the graph, you would be more likely to project $700 million loss (as in after a couple of good quarters the next two are bad and similar or all similar except for 2 exceptions). So it appears to me you know it isn't going to be that bad from the delivery numbers and are putting in a more sensible estimate.

Do you work hard at making your posts appear disingenuous in order to try to wind us up? Is it a tactic that works to provoke silly responses that you can laugh at? If so, is it not a problem if your posts look the silliest?

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2847 on: July 09, 2019, 01:31:40 PM »

Q1 4.8k/week on average
Q2 5.6k/week on average

I think they have demand issues with model S/X, for Model 3 it's more difficult to say.
I think they'll see a surge in demand in the Netherlands, because fiscal rules change again and most electric cars have too long delivery times; It shows how strange the market is, demand is mostly driven by fiscal rules...

Production
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 28,578 24,761 53,339
Q3 2018 53,239 26,903 80,142 
Q4 2018 61,394 25,161 86,555
Q1 2019 62,950 14,150 77,100
Q2 2019 72,531 14,517 87,048

Deliveries
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 18,440 22,300 40,740
Q3 2018 55,840 27,660 83,500
Q4 2018 63,150 27,550 90,700
Q1 2019 50,900 12,100 63,000
Q2 2019 77,550 17,650 95,200

Model 3 production is trending clearly upwards and guidance is for further increases. Q1 showed a step down in deliveries but this is when international distribution started. You need to have stock in these locations in order to start selling in new locations so this stutter in the growth shouldn't be any surprise - you have to fill the delivery pipelines. I think this completely explains that there isn't a demand problem with model 3.

S/X yes the US subsidy ending brought some sales earlier into Q4 and slow sales in Q1. Q2 did not recover much. If there is soon to be a refresh, perhaps people are holding back til this is available.  but your "have demand issues with model S/X" does seem a pretty reasonable conclusion.

.

Average price per vehicle sale
Q2 2018 76.5k
Q3 2018 70.4k
Q4 2018 67.0k
Q1 2019 55.7k
A large majority of this is going to be lower spec models. 5k lower selling price for identical spec cars? hmm. not too sure, need to think about how to estimate that a little more.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2848 on: July 09, 2019, 02:25:53 PM »
Code: [Select]
total |Auto sales|Avg Price|Auto cos|Avg cos|Margin|SX %
vehicles
40740 3117865 76.53 2529739 62.09 0.18863 0.54737
83500 5878305 70.40 4405919 52.77 0.25048 0.33126
90700 6073871 66.97 4658517 51.36 0.23302 0.30375
63000 3508741 55.69 2856208 45.34 0.18597 0.19206
95200 0.18540

Was margin surprisingly low in first row (Q2 2018) when S & X made up 54% of vehicles? Or maybe was it surprisingly high in Q3 and Q4? Or were changes adequately explained?

4th quarter update letter includes
Quote
As we improve the production rate of Model 3, the cost per vehicle continues to decline. It is critical that we continue this trend so that
we can keep increasing the affordability of Model 3 while retaining a sustainable level of profitability. The labor hours per Model 3
vehicle declined yet again by roughly 20% compared to Q3 and by about 65% in the second half of 2018 alone. Despite introducing a
lower-priced mid-range variant and other headwinds, Model 3’s gross margin remained stable in Q4 at over 20%.

Q2 update letter included
Quote
Model 3 gross margin turned slightly positive in Q2, expecting roughly 15% in Q3
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 02:34:29 PM by crandles »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2849 on: July 09, 2019, 03:50:40 PM »
If you were just following the graph, you would be more likely to project $700 million loss (as in after a couple of good quarters the next two are bad and similar or all similar except for 2 exceptions).

Well ya, but I think there were some one off issues in Q1 which shifted about $300M of losses from Q2 into Q1. The natural progression would be something like:

Q1: -$400M
Q2: -$700M
Q3: -$800M
Q4: -$850M

until the Model Y arrives, and then Tesla will make about a dollar and a half for one Q and the bulls will rejoice.
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