Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Tesla glory/failure  (Read 186103 times)

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2850 on: July 09, 2019, 03:55:53 PM »
Was margin surprisingly low in first row (Q2 2018) when S & X made up 54% of vehicles? Or maybe was it surprisingly high in Q3 and Q4? Or were changes adequately explained?

I'll explain the changes. When Tesla drops a new model, they can sell about 100,000 deluxe and stupidly expensive versions of the new model to the richy fanbois. These have huge margins. Mystery solved.
big time oops

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2545
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 105
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2851 on: July 09, 2019, 06:03:38 PM »

I'll explain the changes. When Tesla drops a new model, they can sell about 100,000 deluxe and stupidly expensive versions of the new model to the richy fanbois. These have huge margins. Mystery solved.

Agree there is certainly some effect of expensive higher margin versions being sold first.

But it isn't the only effect going on.

Quote
Model 3 gross margin turned slightly positive in Q2, expecting roughly 15% in Q3
seems a big contradiction to what you are saying.

You just don't like and omit the additional stories of

* Tesla becoming more efficient over time

* Demand for EVs growing over time particularly as cheaper versions become available but also in other ways like as charger network becomes more developed. Yes, demand curve has a negative slope, that doesn't stop the demand curve moving up to higher levels in later periods.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2545
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 105
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2852 on: July 09, 2019, 06:23:23 PM »

I'm not using any math from figures specific to the quarter, just following the long term trend of mini profits with a new model, followed by ebb back to flamethrower-to-cash land.


Well ya, but I think there were some one off issues in Q1 which shifted about $300M of losses from Q2 into Q1.

So your own words show and admit you are using "figures specific to the quarter" not just the graph. Sigh!

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2853 on: July 09, 2019, 06:35:55 PM »
* Tesla becoming more efficient over time

I know of absolutely ZERO evidence of Tesla becoming more efficient over time. If anything, things seem to get more chaotic with sudden severe changes (think closing all stores despite long term lease agreements).

* Demand for EVs growing over time particularly as cheaper versions become available but also in other ways like as charger network becomes more developed. Yes, demand curve has a negative slope, that doesn't stop the demand curve moving up to higher levels in later periods.

100% agree. EV demand will continue to rise, and very quickly. (Although not as quickly as maybe like to think..."ICE vehicles are obsolete, blah blah blah.")


The problem for Tesla is 2 fold:

1) The business model sucks and their chief executive is a terrible manager (and a con-man). Building cars in the bay area?!? Tearing out the railhead?!? Promising patently impossible things: 300,000 lb towing pick up, WTF, 24 hr service turn around, WTF,  Doubling superchargers in 1 year, WTF, Solar roof, WTF, Long-haul semi, WTF, Hovercraft WTF!!!

2) The competition is showing up. This is why the S and X sales have been crushed. There are now good alternatives now. Presently, the model 3 alternatives are arriving. Tesla couldn't even make money when there was no competition.

Musk is now throwing hail marys based on FSD and robotaxis to keep the dream alive. It will die
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2854 on: July 09, 2019, 06:37:21 PM »

I'm not using any math from figures specific to the quarter, just following the long term trend of mini profits with a new model, followed by ebb back to flamethrower-to-cash land.


Well ya, but I think there were some one off issues in Q1 which shifted about $300M of losses from Q2 into Q1.

So your own words show and admit you are using "figures specific to the quarter" not just the graph. Sigh!

Hey genius, I mean I'm not trying to estimate margins and deliveries and costs. So sorry that subtracting 300M is "math".
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2855 on: July 09, 2019, 06:48:13 PM »
As the Tesla AP team disintegrates, the self-driving companies with lidar are going full speed ahead...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-09/mass-exodus-11-members-teslas-autopilot-team-have-left-past-few-months-0

"Over the last few months, at least 11 members of the Autopilot software team have left. This represents close to 10% of the total group. Several of the remaining managers are now working directly with Musk. These departures followed the removal of the Autopilot group’s leader Stuart Bowers in May...this exodus marks a new type of departure - one where a chunk of an entire team has left at the same time. If Teska continues to see mass employee exodus of this nature, Musk is going to find out the hard way that human capital can be just as valuable as actual capital.

Regardless, we think there may come a day in the near future where Musk doesn't have either."


https://www.reuters.com/article/valeo-lidar/update-1-car-parts-group-valeo-announces-500-mln-euros-of-orders-for-its-lidar-sensors-idUSL8N24515C

"French car parts company Valeo has won 500 million euros ($564 million) worth of orders for its ‘Lidar’ car sensor products, Valeo executive Marc Vrecko told Reuters in an interview, highlighting the potential growth of Lidar."
big time oops

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2545
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 105
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2856 on: July 09, 2019, 06:49:10 PM »
* Tesla becoming more efficient over time

I know of absolutely ZERO evidence of Tesla becoming more efficient over time.

I just quoted from Q4 update letter:

Quote
As we improve the production rate of Model 3, the cost per vehicle continues to decline. It is critical that we continue this trend so that
we can keep increasing the affordability of Model 3 while retaining a sustainable level of profitability. The labor hours per Model 3
vehicle declined yet again by roughly 20% compared to Q3 and by about 65% in the second half of 2018 alone.

but you don't see that as evidence. Ho hum.

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2857 on: July 09, 2019, 06:59:32 PM »
this thread is a total eye-opener to confirm some thoughts and impression about certain personalities and REAL MOTIVES why some users are on this forum in the first place.

no objective and balance discussion is possible and the only few users who have a chance to proof their point (which the future will do for them) lose it by never ever admitting that the other side has a point or two from time to time, while of course "the other side" would do/lack the same but being wrong all along.

sometimes i think people forget what this thread is about, it's about whether tesla will survive, be successful and make profits or whether it's going broke.

anyone with common sense knows the answer and always denying it is sheds a bad light at credibility and motivation also in other threads.

the question is not whether we have to be thankful that tesla made beautiful fast BEVs and helped to bring BEVs to a point of market acceptance that helps the CO2 problem.

The answer to that is YES and OF COURSE, no doubt, i'm a fan of tesla cars from day one i saw the roadster and it's specifications and thought: FINALLY

but that does not change the fact or have anything to do with the fact that tesla won't be profitable ever (as an independent car maker) and that the reasons are high debts, bad management and many more, all based on a questionable character of Elon Musk who's motivation has nothing to do with environment, CO2 reduction or global warming. those are only welcome tools/vehicles to con investors with a "good heart" into losing their money and in return feel good for a while.

why can 2 parties who have both their good points not join forces and learn from the other, but insist infinitely on their narrow minded point of view that will make both parties losers over time?

so much potential is lost here and in similar cases, it's a shame.

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2858 on: July 09, 2019, 07:29:50 PM »
i bet i've heard

Quote
but that does not change the fact or have anything to do with the fact that Apple won't be profitable ever (as an independent Computer maker) and that the reasons are high debts, bad management and many more, all based on a questionable character of Steve Jobs

before! ;)

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3105
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 400
  • Likes Given: 198
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2859 on: July 09, 2019, 08:06:53 PM »
Curious use of the terms “evidence” and “fact” in recent posts.

Evidence:  information indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid.
The example "The study finds little evidence of overt discrimination," suggests there is some evidence, but perhaps not convincing evidence.  That there is evidence does not make, in this example, ‘overt discrimination’ a fact.  To declare that a formally published statement isn’t evidence of what the statement declares is ignoring the basic definition of the word “evidence”.

Fact:  a thing that is known or proved to be true. 
Many things expected in the future are not facts as they are not provable until later.  I cannot factually claim, “It’s a fact I will go to work tomorrow,” regardless of intention, as ‘life sometimes intervenes’; ‘tomorrow’ hasn’t happened yet.

Yes, there are other definitions of these two words, but in an intellectually honest forum, those who claim definitions that stray too far from these will stretch the user’s credibility.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2860 on: July 09, 2019, 08:49:18 PM »
Quote
...but that does not change the fact or have anything to do with the fact that tesla won't be profitable ever (as an independent car maker)...

Q3 2018 and Q4 2018 were profitable quarters for Tesla — this even during “production hell” and “delivery hell” of the Model 3 ramp.  I await the typical bear goalpost move of, “I meant annual profit....”  ::)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2545
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 105
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2861 on: July 09, 2019, 09:28:04 PM »
Quote
...but that does not change the fact or have anything to do with the fact that tesla won't be profitable ever (as an independent car maker)...

Q3 2018 and Q4 2018 were profitable quarters for Tesla — this even during “production hell” and “delivery hell” of the Model 3 ramp.  I await the typical bear goalpost move of, “I meant annual profit....”  ::)

Where is the quote from? (Edit: Missed that, thanks.)

Anyway why "await the typical bear goalpost move"?

Mr. Bob,

I will name call forevermore.

Tesla won't make a profit because it isn't part of their business model. They only ever make a quarterly profit or two when they first release a new model. The surrounding Qs have about a 5-10x greater loss than any temporary profit. This is because Tesla is a cult company and sell to the cultists first for the best prices.

The models with the highest margins (S & X) are aging and their sales are slowing. The Model 3 hasn't seen production increases in the last year and the prices have been dropping quite rapidly since the cultist backlog orders have been filled, and thus margins have been dropping.

(Also, there are tons of expenses Tesla has been putting off like Service and Supercharging infrastructure. The Capex in recent Qs has been pathetic for a "growth" company.)

New models are years away. Tesla will go BK first. No Musk company ever makes an annual profit...never will.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 09:36:39 PM by crandles »

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest

Tunnelforce9

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2863 on: July 09, 2019, 09:44:02 PM »
It seems some of you REALLY hate Elon Musk and would rather see a grey mouse as CEO of Tesla... 


Why don 't you mention Maxwell ?
Why no mention about the ~20% lower construction cost of model 3 in China ?

about servicing model3 you know they can change your whole drivetrain/accu within 15 minutes ??  Try that with an ICE car.


KiwiGriff

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 307
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2864 on: July 09, 2019, 09:52:22 PM »
Quote
The competition is showing up. This is why the S and X sales have been crushed. There are now good alternatives now. Presently, the model 3 alternatives are arriving.


The X and S have competition from  the 3.
No one has produced a car that can compete with any of Tesla offerings.
Feel free to point out one other manufactures product that can beat even one of these metrics let alone all of them.
Range.
Efficiency.
Acceleration.
Charging rate.
Charging infrastructure.

Outside of the USA the S and X are to large for most markets.
The large sedan market is contracting In the USA.
The S is a niche product that had been selling well outside of it true market position because there was no alternative. The 3 has changed that market not the products from Jag, Hyundai and VW group.

Consider.

Sourced from inside ev's.





GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2865 on: July 09, 2019, 11:48:41 PM »
Quote
...but that does not change the fact or have anything to do with the fact that tesla won't be profitable ever (as an independent car maker)...

Q3 2018 and Q4 2018 were profitable quarters for Tesla — this even during “production hell” and “delivery hell” of the Model 3 ramp.  I await the typical bear goalpost move of, “I meant annual profit....”  ::)

So all Tesla needs to do is come out with a new model every 6 months and sell deluxe versions to the same 100,000 rich fanbois, AND poof they are profitable. Tweet this to Elon, he might make you VP of Ideas.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2866 on: July 09, 2019, 11:55:22 PM »
about servicing model3 you know they can change your whole drivetrain/accu within 15 minutes ??  Try that with an ICE car.

Cool idea. The reality is that Tesla owners have the longest wait times of any car brand.

Oh, and they break down the most too. BY FAR!

https://www.whatcar.com/news/2018-what-car-reliability-survey/n17826

big time oops

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2867 on: July 10, 2019, 02:43:22 PM »
Tesla shares climb about 2% premarket on report of plan to boost production capacity in Fremont
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-shares-climb-about-2-premarket-on-report-of-plan-to-boost-production-capacity-in-fremont-2019-07-10

Tesla is preparing a mysterious production capacity increase
https://electrek.co/2019/07/09/tesla-mysterious-production-capacity-increase/

From Electrek commenter Paretooptimum:
Quote
Jerome Guillen discussed the "giant machine" elsewhere (in a CT interview):

"We then slid into a chat about Tesla’s lessons from scaling up production of a truly mass-market, high-production vehicle. He noted that the Model 3 body was still super complex, “like origami,” something we’ve heard Elon Musk discuss more specifically in a recent interview with Ryan McCaffrey for his “Ride the Lighting” podcast. Kyle summarized Elon’s comments like this: “The current manufacturing process requires a mix of 70 aluminum and steel parts being pieced together into the rear frame for the Model 3. Tesla is swapping all of these parts out for a cast part from a small casting machine that will allow the company to initially go down to just 4 parts. Tesla is already looking at a larger casting machine that would allow it to consolidate this down to just one part.”

That captures the essence of Tesla quite well, something Jerome conveyed to us in various ways in our 45 minute interview. Tesla is never stagnant, is continuously pushing itself to take both little and big steps forward, is constantly innovating and evolving its processes and products.

"Jerome added a note, with great emphasis, that the Tesla Grohmann equipment has created much better machines, dramatically improving the overall manufacturing efficiency of the Model 3. He also said they are building a giant machine using Tesla’s Grohmann sub-division, something he was clearly eager to share but couldn’t yet talk much about. Hmm. He basically just emphasized that it was a “giant, giant, giant machine” that duplicates everything, is modular, is simple on the modular level, and … is gigantic. We’ll all have to wait a bit longer for more information on that."

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2868 on: July 11, 2019, 02:05:11 AM »
Rumor has it Fremont is shutting down for 2 weeks. Bullish! lol
big time oops

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2869 on: July 11, 2019, 02:28:20 AM »
U.K.:  Tesla Model 3 wins, not only as Auto Express Premium Electric Car of The Year, but also as the overall Car of The Year.

Tesla Model 3 Wins 2019 Auto Express Car Of The Year Award
https://insideevs.com/news/359154/tesla-model-3-autoexpress-2019coty/amp/



U.S.:  Motor Trend:  2013 Model S is Best Car of the 2010 Decade, and the Ultimate Car of Motor Trend’s 70-year history.

Tesla Model S beats 70 years of motoring legends to win MotorTrend’s Ultimate Car of the Year award
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-wins-motortrend-ultimate-car-of-the-year-award/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1296
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 111
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2870 on: July 11, 2019, 12:55:30 PM »
You don't understand what the BMS does.

Once again: You don't charge cells. You charge a battery. The BMS knows something about the cells and is charging them accordingly.

You plug in, come back later and it's charged. You don't need to care about cells.

Here was me thinking that I'd replied to this.  Must have been in preview when my PC crashed.  It's been doing that a lot in the heat here.

In very brief.

When you drain a pack to 2%, the BMS has no option, almost all of the cells are discharged and almost all the cells have to be re-charged.  At this point there is no BMS wizardry to be had, it dumps massive power into the pack to 50% then starts to taper the power off.  This is how the cells charge.

Where a BMS comes in is around the cooling system, how it keeps the pack balanced when charging and when it is charging/discharging cells where the BMS can keep higher power cells at lower charge rates (say 70%), whilst pushing the more discharged cells to charge more rapidly.

At 2% this doesn't happen.
When racing around the country charging to 50% (fastest charge time), then discharging to around 2%, then keeping on doing this, the BMS is only managing the parallel charge at high rates and keeping the heat down.

This is not magic.  The BMS, when used in this way, does not protect from pack degradation.  It can't.

Push this forward and you get a situation which has been long known with people who are at the limit of their spending.  At the beginning of the month, they fill their vehicle fully and keep it full.  At the end of the month they use that fuel and keep the level low whilst topping it up with small amounts.

In an ICE that doesn't matter, in an EV that does.

Perhaps charging contracts will help level the cost, balance payments and allow people always to keep the vehicle charged.  But, initially, they will be expensive so don't be on it.

EV is emerging technology.  We have been living with the ICE for over 100 years and we know it's faults and issues well.  Time will tell with EV's, but simply blowing off concerns because less than a million Tesla vehicles haven't shown more than a few % of battery pack issues is not the way to go.

At the turn of the last century the "horseless carriage" owners were enthusiasts.  They would have told you very little ever went wrong but they drove with a full toolbox, lubricants and spare parts to ensure they made their journey.

Wind forward 100 years to the EV world and little has changed.  The early adopters want to know about their technology, how to drive it to eke out the very best and how to ensure the best longevity.

The rest of the people who will buy them, in the decades to come?  They're just going to be drivers or, as we Army mechanics called them, "sophisticated aiming devices".  They won't care about the technology or the best way to use it, just as people, today, don't get the very best out of their ICE.  Because they don't care.

I passed all my driving tests in Germany, drove the first 5 years of my driving life on the Autobahns and am not what you call a "slow" driver.  Yet when my work had an awareness day for fuel conservation, I won the simulation MPG drive by a mile.

That kind of knowledge is not going to be there for the later EV take up and all that this kind of attitude is going to do is build up bad press at a critical point in EV transition.  NO, the BMS is not the god of pack protection, it is a tool and it needs someone to use it wisely.  Saying that it has a BMS and that is all you need to know is not a winner in my experience.

On the ++ side, Tesla has the best technology on the market, the best systems, the best range and the best record on pack life.

Why avoid just a little bit of caution and be adamant that you can just do what they hell you like with the car and it will all be OK because it has a BMS?  Because it won't.  That pack is full of Li+ cells and they have two usage patterns.  One which leads to destruction and one which leads to a long and healthy life.  Whilst the BMS will reduce the abuse and maximise the life, no matter how it is used, it is not omnipotent.  It has to work within the restrictions of the technology it manages.

This is all I'm saying.  Nothing more.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1296
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 111
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2871 on: July 11, 2019, 01:27:53 PM »
U.K.:  Tesla Model 3 wins, not only as Auto Express Premium Electric Car of The Year, but also as the overall Car of The Year.

It is not an overly high bar when the "new" Electric Mini sets such a low standard.

Built on old i3 tech with a rang of 146 miles.....

Even Electrek had a go and they are seriously disappointed.

Quote
Electrek’s take:

This is painful to say because I love the Mini form factor and I’m glad BMW has finally introduced this car.

But is this car from 2016? Let’s compare it to the similarly sized Chevy Bolt which was released in 2016.  The 2016 Bolt has 50% more range, is way quicker/more HP, 4 doors and even charges faster at 54kW on CCS. This vehicle doesn’t match up very well with a 4 year old car. How is it going to compete with vehicles released since then?

The truth is that this is a 1st generation EV, hopefully the last BMW tries to roll out on its i3 platform. In fact, the i3 at least had RWD and better acceleration than this.

BMW will probably sell a disappointing number of these because, hey, even the Nissan LEAF has significantly more range and better acceleration, and it is hard to sell a sporty EV that gets smoked by an old Nissan. As far as new EVs go, the electric Mini may be best compared to the Honda e.

BMW’s board members will say things like “no one wants electric” when in fact people do want electric — just not an outdated, half-assed attempt. They’ve got a long way to go if they want Mini to be an all-electric brand, which it can excel at, if given the proper chance.

https://electrek.co/2019/07/09/all-electric-mini-cooper-se/

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4530
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 903
  • Likes Given: 1300
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2872 on: July 11, 2019, 04:43:42 PM »
This is all I'm saying.  Nothing more.
Well said.
No technology is perfect, and neither are Tesla cars perfect. I also remind the audience that most of the experience with the low degradation of Tesla packs comes from the Model S, where the battery was over-engineered compared to the Model 3. How do I know? I am guessing, but the lower warranty on the Model 3 pack should give the hint.
So it is quite possible that the Model 3 packs will show greater degradation. But I still don't expect this to be a major issue for most drivers under most scenarios, though it might be a problem for a Model 3 taxi supercharging every day. Bear in mind battery technology is constantly improving, so until such time as the mainstream buyers get massively into EVs, such problems as might exist today will be smaller and cheaper to solve.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6755
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1668
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2873 on: July 11, 2019, 05:23:30 PM »
U.K.:  Tesla Model 3 wins, not only as Auto Express Premium Electric Car of The Year, but also as the overall Car of The Year.

It is not an overly high bar when the "new" BMW Electric Mini sets such a low standard.

Built on old i3 tech with a rang of 146 miles.....

Even Electrek had a go and they are seriously disappointed.

The BMW mini...
Sounds just the right vehicle for Brexit Britain.
Redundant before it's made.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 05:29:32 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2874 on: July 11, 2019, 05:35:08 PM »
The BMS, when used in this way, does not protect from pack degradation.  It can't.

In an ICE that doesn't matter, in an EV that does.

Again, Neil, you are telling me a thing degrades while using. That's correct and i never opposed this argument.

Please, tell me, why the degradation with an EV is a dealbreaker for you. Last time i checked ICE cars also degrade and it wasn't ever a dealbreaker for people who bought them (of which there where many).

Quote
EV is emerging technology.

Well, ICE technology never managed to solve the degradation problem. After 100 years of engineering, they still produce IC engines that will eventually break.

Quote
Time will tell with EV's

No, time already told us. EVs cause less maintenance cost then ICE cars do. That's a fact and given there are way fewer parts that make an EV it's not really surprising.

Quote
On the ++ side, Tesla has the best technology on the market, the best systems, the best range and the best record on pack life.

To be honest, i only consider Teslas as EVs. Other companies are trying and failing to build a good one so far. None has the building capacity nor the technology Tesla has.

KiwiGriff

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 307
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 28
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2875 on: July 11, 2019, 10:31:26 PM »

Quote
At 2% this doesn't happen.
When racing around the country charging to 50% (fastest charge time), then discharging to around 2%, then keeping on doing this, the BMS is only managing the parallel charge at high rates and keeping the heat down.

This is not magic.  The BMS, when used in this way, does not protect from pack degradation.  It can't.
Edge case....
The bms the circuit board connected to each individual cell does not limit the rate of charge at low voltage.
It is the charger that is able to be ramped up slowly. This ramping is controlled by another piece of hardware/ software in the car and charger. Tesla is able to control the bulk charge rate at a low state of charge if they see a need.

If you run a Tesla down to 2 % you hit the cars limiting software and your acceleration and speed will be reduced .
Few will ever hit this limit more than a few times almost none will be doing so on a regular basis.

I can think of plenty of edge cases that will kill an ICE car quickly.
Our beach house has a very steep drive for 400 meters. If I purchased any new ICE car and drove it quickly up that drive, cold, eight times a day  on short trips it would be totally stuffed by the time the warranty expired.  Does that mean all ICE cars are not fit for purpose? No it just means their are limits on any technology and edge cases that push those limits.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1296
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 111
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2876 on: July 13, 2019, 01:23:46 AM »

Again, Neil, you are telling me a thing degrades while using. That's correct and i never opposed this argument.


Not quite what I said. I said that certain usage patterns would degrade the pack faster than what is currently expected as the norm.  I also said that the current stats are from early adopters who are working with the BMS to protect the pack.

As Tesla's go mass market that will change.

Even Tesla has acknowledged this by putting a mileage limit on the M3 8 year warranty.

After all, if a full SR cycle is 240 miles, then 100,000 miles is 416 cycles.

Continuously half charging the pack, from empty, takes that 100,000 miles to 832 cycles.

As the very cells that make up the battery are guaranteed for around 800 to 1,500 cycles, this Tesla warranty makes total sense.

What it does not make sense of is the general assertion that EV's, especially Tesla EV's, are good for 500k to 1m mile's.

This started out of my assertion that the only way you would see 100 Mile's in a few minutes was if your pack was empty and you only charged up to less than 50%.  That degrades the pack faster than anything other than poor cooling whilst charging.

If you want to protect your pack long term, you will have to charge your car at mid way and accept at least 25 minutes of charging.  Regardless of whether your supercharger is a 2 or a 3. Assuming, of course, that you are going to drive more than 40 miles...

Whilst digging around about historical numbers for vehicle ownership and usage patterns at fuel stations, I came across a guy who stated that he drove 145km per day and filled his car up every 5-6 days.

That is the litmus test for universal acceptance and we are far from it today.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2877 on: July 13, 2019, 01:59:58 AM »
To be honest, i only consider Teslas as EVs. Other companies are trying and failing to build a good one so far. None has the building capacity nor the technology Tesla has.

Please do tell! What is this tech you speak of?
big time oops

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2878 on: July 13, 2019, 03:10:09 AM »
Tesla Announces Date for Second Quarter 2019 Financial Results and Webcast
Quote
PALO ALTO, Calif., July 11, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla will post its financial results for the second quarter of 2019 after market close on Wednesday, July 24, 2019. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q2 2019 Update Letter, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company’s financial and business results and outlook.

What:        Date of Tesla Q2 2019 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When:       Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Time:        2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
Shareholder Letter:       http://ir.tesla.com
Webcast:        http://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)
Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company’s website.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2879 on: July 13, 2019, 08:24:23 AM »
Please do tell! What is this tech you speak of?

You wouldn't understand. :)

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2880 on: July 13, 2019, 08:33:21 AM »
I said that certain usage patterns would degrade the pack faster c

You mean like there are usage patterns with ICE cars that would degrade the engine faster than what is currently expected as the norm?

You are again saying, with way too many words and false assumptions, that things degrade when you use them. What's the news?

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2881 on: July 13, 2019, 01:47:19 PM »
...
When racing around the country charging to 50% (fastest charge time), then discharging to around 2%, then keeping on doing this, the BMS is only managing the parallel charge at high rates and keeping the heat down.

This is not magic.  The BMS, when used in this way, does not protect from pack degradation.  It can't. ...

First, the “race” was a special test; EV owners do not take the risk of running out of charge by constantly draining their battery to “2%” on a daily basis.  So any “constantly discharging to 2%” argument is moot.  As I quoted above, Musk confirms this will not hurt the pack. 

Second, you massively underestimate the capabilities and sophistication of Tesla’s Battery Management System; it is doing much more than simply “managing the parallel charge at high rates and keeping the heat down.”

For example, Tesla recently updated the software on the various models to give them more range and more performance — while still maintaining their battery warranty guarantee!  And updates for Supercharging that radically changed charging abilities.  Tesla has years of data and billions of miles from its fleet to know what their cars can safely handle, and Tesla BMS is quite able to control the entire drive system so as to give the maximum performance possible for driving and charging while still protecting it against damage.

More On Tesla Model 3 Update That Improves Range And Power
https://insideevs.com/news/343826/more-on-tesla-model-3-update-that-improves-range-and-power/

Tesla updates Model S, X: 370-mi range, faster charging, adaptive suspension
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-x-370-mi-long-range-adaptive-suspension/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3105
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 400
  • Likes Given: 198
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2882 on: July 13, 2019, 03:59:54 PM »
I remember hearing the story of a teen with his new-to-him gift-from-his-father car.   The engine was 'hot' and he liked to show off to his friends with skid marks here and there and (nearly) everywhere.  When the tires wore out prematurely (or 'as expected' considering) he asked his dad for the $200 to replace them.  His dad said, "No, proper maintenance and upkeep are your responsibility, remember?  And that means new tires will replace the now-tredless ones"  The car sat there in the driveway for several months until money was earned to replace the tires, and there were no new skid marks in the neighborhood thereafter.

Yes, some will systematically drive Teslas into the ground 'as fast as they can' - I'm certain it has already happened (certain reported crashes suggest it) - not realizing what they are/were doing.  Some will learn from their experience.  (Some died; some like to burn cash; some are 'slow'.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2883 on: July 13, 2019, 09:14:23 PM »
Please do tell! What is this tech you speak of?

You wouldn't understand. :)

Since when is smugness considered technology?

You are like a 5-year-old who claims to know what something is, but when asked responds, "I don't wanna say." Pathetic.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2884 on: July 13, 2019, 10:07:51 PM »
Quote
ReflexResearch (@ReflexFunds) 7/11/19, 6:12 AM
CFTC to double Tesla Model 3 relay supply from around 20k to around 40k per month from August. It suggests to me that Tesla is ready to hit 7k per week at Fremont sustainably while GF3 looks on track for a quick ramp up to 3k per week.
https://twitter.com/reflexfunds/status/1149260069969809408

CFTC to hike components shipments to Tesla
Quote
Precision stamping service provider China FineBlanking Technology (CFTC) will increase monthly shipments for components of relays used in Tesla Model 3 electric vehicles from about 20,000 units currently to 40,000 units beginning August 2019, according to industry sources.

CFTC has also landed orders for other components used in Model 3, with shipments to begin in October 2019, the sources said. As Tesla is hiking Model 3 output and its Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, eastern China, will kick off production of the electric vehicle by year-end 2019, CFTC's shipments to Tesla are expected to rise, the sources noted.

CFTC's China-based subsidiary is expanding production capacity by constructing its fifth factory, with the construction slated for completion by year-end 2019, the sources said. CFTC will set up smart production lines at the new factory to hike efficiency in production by 40%, the sources indicated.
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20190710PD214.html


———-
Tesla is pushing for its own >1 MW high-power charging standard for electric trucks
https://electrek.co/2019/07/10/tesla-high-power-charging-standard-electric-trucks/

—-
Automakers Paid Me To Show They Lag Tesla | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/13/automakers-paid-me-to-show-they-lag-tesla/

—-
Quote
Sofiaan Fraval (@Sofiaan) 7/11/19, 8:19 PM
True story @elonmusk - I was buying donuts for @Tesla, and I saw a lady in the parking lot looking at my 3. I walked over to her and gave her the full tour. Two days later, I saw her at the showroom, by chance!
Two days ago, they took delivery!!!  :o
https://twitter.com/sofiaan/status/1149473315343331330
- I just spoke to them and they are so grateful and love their 3.
< Buy donuts, sell cars. Nice work!  8)
- Thanks man. The cars really do sell themselves. People just need to know about them. She’d never seen a Tesla before mine! Oh, and the guys at the showroom loved the donuts.  ;D

—-
Quote
Bonnie Norman (@bonnienorman) 7/11/19, 2:12 PM
This morning: Stopped at local feed store, big burly guy driving a tricked out Ram truck w extended cab (turns out he owns a local fruit biz) wants to see my X: 'The wife wants one, I'm waiting on the pickup ... you like it?'
They're coming over this afternoon to fully check out.
https://twitter.com/bonnienorman/status/1149380921457438722
- I found it interesting how much the potential owner group is expanding - this guy was inside when I got there having coffee with some other ranchers/farmers. And he knew all about Tesla.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2885 on: July 14, 2019, 12:05:31 AM »
Quote
ReflexResearch (@ReflexFunds) 7/11/19, 6:12 AM
CFTC to double Tesla Model 3 relay supply from around 20k to around 40k per month from August. It suggests to me that Tesla is ready to hit 7k per week at Fremont sustainably while GF3 looks on track for a quick ramp up to 3k per week.
https://twitter.com/reflexfunds/status/1149260069969809408

Demand constrained company about to double production! Sounds legit. Giggles.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2886 on: July 14, 2019, 12:30:08 AM »
Quote
Sofiaan Fraval (@Sofiaan) 7/11/19, 8:19 PM
True story @elonmusk - I was buying donuts for @Tesla, and I saw a lady in the parking lot looking at my 3. I walked over to her and gave her the full tour. Two days later, I saw her at the showroom, by chance!
Two days ago, they took delivery!!!  :o
https://twitter.com/sofiaan/status/1149473315343331330
- I just spoke to them and they are so grateful and love their 3.
< Buy donuts, sell cars. Nice work!  8)
- Thanks man. The cars really do sell themselves. People just need to know about them. She’d never seen a Tesla before mine! Oh, and the guys at the showroom loved the donuts.  ;D


Why are Tesla Bulls like flies on shit? Y'all just love the BS. True story.

It is beyond belief that a woman living in Santa Barbara would have never seen a Tesla until July 2019.

Have all Tesla Bulls lived such cushioned and detached lives that they totally lack Bullshit Detectors?!?

Don't worry, Elon will have Neuralink ready to make you into a cyborg a few months ago. Then you can just get smarter with each software update. And every iteration will just get better and better. You will be 10x smarter in 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely.

I would suggest going out into the world and interacting with it a bit. But since that seems antithetical to y'all's existence, maybe just try a book...

https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/how-to-become-a-human-bullshit-detector-david-craig/1126443460
big time oops

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2887 on: July 14, 2019, 04:44:25 PM »
Sofiaan Fraval (@Sofiaan) 4/26/19, 9:17 AM
I gave 67 rides to strangers in my #Tesla #Model3. About 70% had never been in Tesla. 90% had never had an autopilot demo. 100% enjoyed it! Thank you @elonmusk @Tesla for an amazing car! My passengers and I love it!
< Just helped three fellas out of darkness this afternoon. They test drove and went bananas. All three want to order a Tesla as soon as they can
<< Myself, my girlfriend, and two friends of mine, have all signed up with Uber/Lyft in San Diego. Adding a dozen hours each week just driving around and chatting with people. Even here, where there are thousands of 3's, many people don't know about Tesla.
< I swapped cars with a buddy so I could borrow his truck. “They just gotta get people in these cars! You don’t know what you don’t know! I want one so fucking bad!” And he works for Chrysler!

Wonderful Stories From Sofiaan Fraval About Promoting Tesla Via Lyft & Uber
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/08/sofiaan-fraval-has-found-a-new-way-to-promote-tesla-elon-noticed/

———-
Bo Hi-C (@DBoHi_C) 7/3/19, 8:27 PM
just walked into a mall gallery and hung out for an hour in San Antonio. 2 model X orders in to people who never knew about Tesla. One trading in a Yukon, one trading in an Escalade. Crazy!! Just watched and smirked as they were blown away.
https://twitter.com/dbohi_c/status/1146576336644915200

—-
Christopher Dungeon (@ChrisDungeon) 7/5/19, 9:02 AM
Gave multiple rides in my @Tesla #Model3 Performance yesterday and was asked multiple times if it's 100% electric...
"So it doesn't take any gas?"
It's interesting to see what the general public knows about #TSLA
https://twitter.com/chrisdungeon/status/1147128557350588417

—-
Eleanor (@EleanorLetsRide) 6/4/19, 6:46 PM
Guy in an F150 pulled up next to me at a supercharger, and spent the next 20 minutes talking to me about my car. He’s sick of buying gas, and already has solar panels on his house to fuel his future electric car. #Tesla #ElectricFuture #NoMoreGas
https://twitter.com/eleanorletsride/status/1136041638994894851

Earl of Frunkpuppy (@28delayslater) 6/5/19, 7:23 AM
 Had similar experience last week. Guy in red Ford parked next to me when I was getting in car. He said he really wants a Tesla some day and can’t afford it. He’s in market for a new truck and spending 42k. We was shocked to learn the model 3 starting price
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1136232133570285568
- I’m leaving out parts of the story. Like the guy saying “hey can I talk to you about your Tesla” and my wife saying “oh god, you will be here all day”
< I’ve had a few similar experiences. I just converted a self described gear head to TM3 after one test drive in a friends car. He admitted he was afraid to give up his man card before the test drive. They picked up AWD last Friday.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2888 on: July 14, 2019, 06:27:14 PM »
900,000 km (559,000 miles)

Quote
Hansjörg Gemmingen (@gem8mingen)
7/14/19, 8:03 AM
Now I did it  :D
https://twitter.com/gem8mingen/status/1150375291421888512
Image below.

“F” = 2015 model year.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2019, 06:32:56 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tunnelforce9

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2889 on: July 14, 2019, 06:45:57 PM »
Quote
Demand constrained company about to double production! Sounds legit. Giggles

Demand is huge why do did you think the model 3 is one of the best selling vehicle in Europe and America ? 

Take a look at this video so you can shit your pants  ;)

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2890 on: July 14, 2019, 10:00:09 PM »
Quote
Demand constrained company about to double production! Sounds legit. Giggles
Demand is huge why do did you think the model 3 is one of the best selling vehicle in Europe and America ? 

Tesla hasn't increased their model 3 production rate in over about a year, yet the ASP has reduced over $10,000. The first day of Econ 101 says this means they are demand constrained. Go back to your tunnel.

<edit Neven: Snip. I happened to be in the neighbourhood and saw you go and take up your old habit of accusing people of being stupid and morons and whatnot. I've told you before not to do that. Everything was going so well, with the funny sarcasm and all, and there you lose your composure again. Do try to keep it.>
« Last Edit: July 14, 2019, 10:49:55 PM by Neven »
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2891 on: July 14, 2019, 10:31:42 PM »
Reality is starting to sink in.

Tesla Motors Tumbles In Key Trust Measure

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jacknerad2/2019/07/12/tesla-motors-tumbles-in-key-trust-measure/#5fd342019f3c

"Tesla has fallen off its previously lofty perch in the study to land at third from the bottom..."
big time oops

Tunnelforce9

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2892 on: July 14, 2019, 10:38:52 PM »
They stabilized the production it's why bloomberg isn't even tracking new CID anymore.

Tesla says they had more orders then deliveries in q2

Maybe come with some facts first before you go on a childish rampage.


TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5418
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2893 on: July 14, 2019, 10:51:19 PM »
Sofiaan Fraval (@Sofiaan) 4/26/19, 9:17 AM
I gave 67 rides to strangers in my #Tesla #Model3. About 70% had never been in Tesla. 90% had never had an autopilot demo. 100% enjoyed it! Thank you @elonmusk @Tesla for an amazing car! My passengers and I love it!
< Just helped three fellas out of darkness this afternoon. They test drove and went bananas. All three want to order a Tesla as soon as they can
<< Myself, my girlfriend, and two friends of mine, have all signed up with Uber/Lyft in San Diego. Adding a dozen hours each week just driving around and chatting with people. Even here, where there are thousands of 3's, many people don't know about Tesla.
< I swapped cars with a buddy so I could borrow his truck. “They just gotta get people in these cars! You don’t know what you don’t know! I want one so fucking bad!” And he works for Chrysler!

Wonderful Stories From Sofiaan Fraval About Promoting Tesla Via Lyft & Uber
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/08/sofiaan-fraval-has-found-a-new-way-to-promote-tesla-elon-noticed/

———-
Bo Hi-C (@DBoHi_C) 7/3/19, 8:27 PM
just walked into a mall gallery and hung out for an hour in San Antonio. 2 model X orders in to people who never knew about Tesla. One trading in a Yukon, one trading in an Escalade. Crazy!! Just watched and smirked as they were blown away.
https://twitter.com/dbohi_c/status/1146576336644915200

—-
Christopher Dungeon (@ChrisDungeon) 7/5/19, 9:02 AM
Gave multiple rides in my @Tesla #Model3 Performance yesterday and was asked multiple times if it's 100% electric...
"So it doesn't take any gas?"
It's interesting to see what the general public knows about #TSLA
https://twitter.com/chrisdungeon/status/1147128557350588417

—-
Eleanor (@EleanorLetsRide) 6/4/19, 6:46 PM
Guy in an F150 pulled up next to me at a supercharger, and spent the next 20 minutes talking to me about my car. He’s sick of buying gas, and already has solar panels on his house to fuel his future electric car. #Tesla #ElectricFuture #NoMoreGas
https://twitter.com/eleanorletsride/status/1136041638994894851

Earl of Frunkpuppy (@28delayslater) 6/5/19, 7:23 AM
 Had similar experience last week. Guy in red Ford parked next to me when I was getting in car. He said he really wants a Tesla some day and can’t afford it. He’s in market for a new truck and spending 42k. We was shocked to learn the model 3 starting price
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1136232133570285568
- I’m leaving out parts of the story. Like the guy saying “hey can I talk to you about your Tesla” and my wife saying “oh god, you will be here all day”
< I’ve had a few similar experiences. I just converted a self described gear head to TM3 after one test drive in a friends car. He admitted he was afraid to give up his man card before the test drive. They picked up AWD last Friday.
JEEZ
To a person they all sound like new converts that have found Christ, Krishna - or Amway.
Terry

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2894 on: July 14, 2019, 11:03:04 PM »
GSY is just a troll — and a rude one, at that.  I, for one, rarely bother attempting to explain things to him any more.  Not worth the trouble.

Edit: For example, it’s easy for most people to understand the meaning of “haven’t seen a Model 3 before” — particularly in the context of telling a story within the character limit of a Tweet.  But GSY will fixate on that phrase, and claim (extensively and rudely) that the entire story must therefore be the worst form of false.

——-

Quote
To a person they all sound like new converts that have found Christ, Krishna - or Amway.
Terry

Terry,
When you’ve taken a test drive, you’ll understand.  :) ;) 8)
« Last Edit: July 14, 2019, 11:38:45 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tunnelforce9

  • New ice
  • Posts: 71
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 11
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2895 on: July 14, 2019, 11:42:06 PM »
Tesla Model 3 was the best selling car in the Netherlands last month, ICE cars included.
It's crazy to think demand is lacking.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2896 on: July 14, 2019, 11:47:55 PM »
Tesla Model 3 was the best selling car in the Netherlands last month, ICE cars included.
It's crazy to think demand is lacking.

You are correct on both counts.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5418
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 525
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2897 on: July 15, 2019, 12:06:34 AM »

Quote
To a person they all sound like new converts that have found Christ, Krishna - or Amway.
Terry

Terry,
When you’ve taken a test drive, you’ll understand.  :) ;) 8)


When you've listened to a poor relative trying to sell a bar of Amway Body Series G&H Complexion Soap, then you'll understand. :-\
Terry

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4530
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 903
  • Likes Given: 1300
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2898 on: July 15, 2019, 12:11:04 AM »
The truth is somewhere in the middle. Demand is there, many people want a Tesla EV, many people want an EV in general and could choose a Tesla, and many people will want the above once they know more or once their current car is let go. I want a Tesla too, but my demand is currently invisible for several reasons and will only be converted to an order sometime in 2022 or 2023.
However, demand is not infinite and depends on the pricing and on governmental incentives. Please understand that if people place an order and get delivery within two weeks, that means Tesla doesn't have an orders backlog, and is therefore demand constrained. There is no way around this fact. Demand as in the rate of actual orders paid for delivery coming in each quarter. Are these orders simply going to stop? No, but can they shrink Q over Q? Sure they can. They did in Q1, in part because of US federal incentive halving. What did Tesla do? Cut prices, several times, to stimulate orders. Econ 101 indeed. And still Q1 demand wasn't enough.
Can orders grow Q over Q? Sure they can, even if prices are kept the same. This happened in Q2. It depends on many factors; neither Sig nor GSY know the future.
Is GSY making the most damned effort to troll this thread? Sure he is. DNFTT is the best approach. But does it mean all his points are invalid? No. Some are spot on, but no fruitful discussion is possible.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15872
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2899 on: July 15, 2019, 12:24:01 AM »
...
Please understand that if people place an order and get delivery within two weeks, that means Tesla doesn't have an orders backlog, and is therefore demand constrained. There is no way around this fact.
...

Yes, there is:  Tesla no longer produces its cars to order.  This now applies to Model S, X and 3.  That’s part of the reason behind the streamlining of the order page, with fewer options.  Tesla now decides what types of cars are likely to sell in a particular location, makes up some batches (no doubt with guidance from past and current orders), and ships hundreds of cars to its distribution points.  Order a Tesla, it’s in stock nearby, get it within days.  Logistics!  What Elon spent his birthday working on!  :)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.