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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2900 on: July 15, 2019, 12:32:23 AM »
.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2901 on: July 15, 2019, 12:32:43 AM »
1. Demand for Model 3 is being created as we speak. The more Model 3s on the road, the more demand will be created.

2. Tesla latest ramp, where they are simplifying and speeding up body production means lower cost, which means they can further lower the prices, further increasing demand.

3.  As FSD evolves, you won't have to buy an EV to ride on one. So it may be that most of us will never own a Tesla but end up riding on them anyway. That's a dream future that won't happen without insane effort and dedication.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2902 on: July 15, 2019, 12:42:31 AM »
Quote
The truth is somewhere in the middle

Is the Earth round or flat? What if I start saying to anyone that would listen that the earth was flat, would the truth be in the middle?

I agree that between two honorable parties trying to get to the truth, the truth is generally in the middle or nowhere at all. But if a malicious party creates arguments to create a middle where there is none the belief that "The truth is somewhere in the middle" will make you a victim of lies.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tunnelforce9

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2903 on: July 15, 2019, 12:47:51 AM »
@Oren
Have you heard about tesla contractors are doubling production of parts ?
And what about the Shanghai factory which will begin production in oktober?

I think Tesla will build more then 500k cars this year. that's amazing!!

Quote
"the whole demand issue was created out of nothing and should be put to rest right now."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-10/tesla-tells-staff-it-s-preparing-to-lift-output-at-fremont-plant


Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2904 on: July 15, 2019, 12:56:40 AM »
Motor Trend’s own words.

2013 Tesla Model S Beats Chevy, Toyota, and Cadillac for Ultimate Car of the Year Honors
Quote
With the Model S, Tesla rethought many of the basic relationships between driver and vehicle. Seven years later, there still isn't another car that doesn't require a start button or key. The idea that a car would recognize your phone as you approached, unlock, boot up its computers, and be ready to operate and drive the moment you sat down and closed the door is still cutting-edge today.

The notion of replacing a vehicle's nearly every physical control with a digital one then updating the underlying software with patches and imaginative new features—all while you sleep and free of charge—is still just being emulated now.

And still, the better part of a decade later, there isn't an electric car that can travel as far as a Model S, nor is there a street-legal production car of any motivation that can beat a Ludicrous Model S to 60 mph, not even a Ferrari LaFerrari or Porsche 918. Meanwhile, Tesla remains among the front-runners of advanced driver assistance technology; Autopilot and Autosteer were both unveiled on the Model S. ...
https://www.motortrend.com/news/2013-tesla-model-s-beats-chevy-toyota-cadillac-ultimate-car-of-the-year/

——-
Speaking of Tesla’s digital control, check out the video at the tweet below that compares Tesla’s AWD driving ability in slippery surfaces with the best — analog control — that German cars can offer.  Cars are placed on three “rollers” (one wheel is on dry ground), and try to move forward.  Tesla  has no problem, even when engaging “slip start” (which is similar to disabling traction control, but with two motors, quite different than an AWD ICE car with a center differential).  Note the video insets and the diagrams to see which wheel is free.  The Germans sit and spin….

Quote
T☰SLA Mania (@Tesla__Mania) 7/14/19, 11:01 AM
These 3 German companies @Audi @BMW @MercedesBenz have a combined history of more than 300 years (109+103+93 = 305). @Tesla was only founded 16 years ago. Yet the Tesla Model 3 put them to COMPLETE SHAME in this roller test, without breaking a sweat. Simply graceful. /1
https://twitter.com/tesla__mania/status/1150420156700487680
- Just look at the way the Model 3 beat the best the Germans can offer. The Germans each come with a fancy marketing name: QUATTRO, 4MATIC, xDrive. But it turns out they are pure marketing gimmicks in comparison with Tesla’s plain simple naming: AWD for All-Wheel-Drive. /2
Image below; Video at the tweet.
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Tunnelforce9

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2905 on: July 15, 2019, 01:06:37 AM »
Quote
Tesla Model 3 supplier to double parts shipments in Q3, says sources

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-supplier-to-double-model-3-parts-shipment-in-q3/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2906 on: July 15, 2019, 01:07:56 AM »
Quote
To a person they all sound like new converts that have found Christ, Krishna - or Amway.
Terry
Terry,
When you’ve taken a test drive, you’ll understand.  :) ;) 8)

When you've listened to a poor relative trying to sell a bar of Amway Body Series G&H Complexion Soap, then you'll understand. :-\
Terry

 :o But curious folks ask for it! ;D

(Last meme from me for a while, honest. And no, I don’t have a Tesla. Yet!)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2907 on: July 15, 2019, 01:16:30 AM »
...
Please understand that if people place an order and get delivery within two weeks, that means Tesla doesn't have an orders backlog, and is therefore demand constrained. There is no way around this fact.
...
Yes, there is:  Tesla no longer produces its cars to order.  This now applies to Model S, X and 3.  That’s part of the reason behind the streamlining of the order page, with fewer options.  Tesla now decides what types of cars are likely to sell in a particular location, makes up some batches (no doubt with guidance from past and current orders), and ships hundreds of cars to its distribution points.  Order a Tesla, it’s in stock nearby, get it within days.  Logistics!  What Elon spent his birthday working on!  :)

Reference:
Tesla Q2 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries
Quote
July 2, 2019
...
Orders generated during the quarter exceeded our deliveries, thus we are entering Q3 with an increase in our order backlog. We believe we are well positioned to continue growing total production and deliveries in Q3.

Customer vehicles in transit at the end of the quarter were over 7,400. Due to the order-to-VIN matching process we described in our Q1 2019 Shareholder Letter, which we extended to Model S and Model X in Q2 to improve process efficiency, this metric has become less relevant. As a result, we do not plan to disclose the customer vehicles in transit metric going forward.
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Tunnelforce9

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2908 on: July 15, 2019, 01:40:01 AM »
I think this video settles it  ;D



TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2909 on: July 15, 2019, 01:56:30 AM »

I think Tesla will build more then 500k cars this year. that's amazing!!



I think that you believing that Tesla will build >500k cars this year is amazing!!


Tesla built 164,148 cars in the 1st half of the year.
You now "believe" that they will produce >335,852 cars in the same time frame.
Terry
https://www.statista.com/statistics/715421/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-production/




Tunnelforce9

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2910 on: July 15, 2019, 02:26:23 AM »
Okay i agree it is a bit optimistic but we don't really know how many tesla's they will be building this year in Shanghai gigafactory 3.

What does Elon say about it ?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2911 on: July 15, 2019, 05:58:27 AM »
I think this video settles it  ;D
...
Hmmm, I've never had a 'mentos' or whatever that was, and haven't had a (Coco-Cola) Coke since 1982 (and that one as it was offered after getting a tour of a cargo ship's engine room by a crew member).  I'm so glad!
[You have to watch the video to know what I'm talking about.]
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2912 on: July 15, 2019, 08:06:10 AM »
Quote
The truth is somewhere in the middle

Is the Earth round or flat?

Neither! Without knowing it, you proved oren right.  ;D
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2913 on: July 15, 2019, 08:34:27 AM »
...
Please understand that if people place an order and get delivery within two weeks, that means Tesla doesn't have an orders backlog, and is therefore demand constrained. There is no way around this fact.
...

Yes, there is:  Tesla no longer produces its cars to order.  This now applies to Model S, X and 3.  That’s part of the reason behind the streamlining of the order page, with fewer options.  Tesla now decides what types of cars are likely to sell in a particular location, makes up some batches (no doubt with guidance from past and current orders), and ships hundreds of cars to its distribution points.  Order a Tesla, it’s in stock nearby, get it within days.  Logistics!  What Elon spent his birthday working on!  :)
I don't want to go too much back and forth on this, as I have no wish of derailing the thread. So I will make an effort to summarize this once and for all:
Demand constrained - would sell more cars if more orders came in.
Production consrrained - would sell more cars if managed to produce them.
When you have an inventory, and/or when you deliver cars in two weeks, that means you are demand constrained. If production doubled tomorrow, would more orders come in? No (unless prices were dropped, massive advertising, or some other costly lever used). Inventory would rise, cash would drop, until production was throttled back. If orders for the 3rd quarter halved, inventory would rise as well, and problems ensue. BTW, all carmakers are like that. Tesla used to be different, but now it's not. A sign of maturity.
If demand (order flow) doubled tomorrow, inventory would run out, delivery times would lengthen, prices might possibly rise, and Tesla would become proudction constrained. This is what happened in most of 2018, and in each international market in the beginning. The situation is easy to recognize - Tesla is not in it right now.

So on the margin, Tesla is demand constrained. Dependent on the rate of delivery orders coming in. Should orders slow (recession, war, amazing new car from the competition, Elon pissing off the potential buying public, etc.), trouble would follow. For now, I don't expect them to slow, but I am aware of Tesla's dependence on them. This is undisputed fact and I will not argue it further.
A bit behind, it is also production constrained - for example, prices have been dropped in anticipation of Shanghai factory completion, because in China Tesla's cost basis is high, and will become much lower when the new production comes online.
In addition, Fremont capacity is limited, so a doubled order flow could not be met easily even in the mediium term. But the leading marginal constraint is order flow rate

May I remind the forum, you can love Tesla and wish it well, but still keep on being objective about its challenges, weaknesses and failures. They do exist.

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2914 on: July 15, 2019, 11:50:38 AM »
Quote
The truth is somewhere in the middle

Is the Earth round or flat?

Neither! Without knowing it, you proved oren right.  ;D

Ha. I guess spheroid is somewhere between round and flat.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2915 on: July 15, 2019, 12:19:27 PM »
You are again saying, with way too many words and false assumptions, that things degrade when you use them. What's the news?

Very few words.

Deep discharge -> 100%, one charge, 240 miles -> Deep discharge == once cycle
Deep discharge -> 50%, one charge, 120 miles -> Deep discharge == one cycle

The cells are constrained to charge cycles.
Cycles are defined by the depth of the discharge, not the amount you fully charge it.

The only way this can be mitigated is if only some cells are being charged when others are not being charged.  In a fully discharged pack this is not so.

What is not to understand???
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2916 on: July 15, 2019, 12:24:21 PM »
To be honest, i only consider Teslas as EVs.

Which is a mistake.  Tesla are an EV manufacturer, sure, but look at everyone else and they are desperately trying to treat their EV's like their current ICE's.  i.e. getting someone else to create their packs.  Not working very well for them so far.

Tesla manufactures most of the vehicle, the packs, the software and even the computers in the vehicle.  Over that they are an energy company which produces energy capture and energy storage products.

Pretty soon Tesla is about to go into the service business with ride hailing and Taxi's.

Hard to nail Tesla down as only EV. EV may be paying the bill right now, but it will not always be so unless Tesla fails.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2917 on: July 15, 2019, 01:13:43 PM »
Okay i agree it is a bit optimistic but we don't really know how many tesla's they will be building this year in Shanghai gigafactory 3.

What does Elon say about it ?

That is an embarrassing tweet to use as he had to correct it to:
"Meant to say annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week. Deliveries for year still estimated to be about 400k."

Your best defence seems to be to claim that by 'this year' you meant year ending 30 June 2020.

Production
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 28,578 24,761 53,339
Q3 2018 53,239 26,903 80,142 
Q4 2018 61,394 25,161 86,555
Q1 2019 62,950 14,150 77,100
Q2 2019 72,531 14,517 87,048

Deliveries
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 18,440 22,300 40,740
Q3 2018 55,840 27,660 83,500
Q4 2018 63,150 27,550 90,700
Q1 2019 50,900 12,100 63,000
Q2 2019 77,550 17,650 95,200

Latest is
Quote
We believe we are well positioned to continue growing total production and deliveries in Q3.

Is that reaffirming 360,000 to 400,000? Or, is it more like a silent admission that it is likely to be nearer 360,000 than 400,000. Might be able to get to 360k without China and I would be impressed if China does more than 10k in 2019. Roof going on is a long way from building being complete and then there is all the plant to install and then begin a ramp up in production.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2918 on: July 15, 2019, 01:57:37 PM »
Since 2013, Tesla sales in the second half of the year have been much larger than the first half.
On average over the last three years, Q1 and Q2 only accounted for 37% of the yearly sales total.
Q1 2018 accounted for 12% of total #Tesla sales for the year.

Given the new China factory (which is already hiring production workers), the new “giant” production machine that will greatly simplify the manufacturing process, and news of at least one supplier doubling their deliveries starting in August, a bountiful second half to 2019 is all but assured.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2919 on: July 15, 2019, 02:37:40 PM »
...
Please understand that if people place an order and get delivery within two weeks, that means Tesla doesn't have an orders backlog, and is therefore demand constrained. There is no way around this fact.
...

Yes, there is:  Tesla no longer produces its cars to order.  This now applies to Model S, X and 3.  That’s part of the reason behind the streamlining of the order page, with fewer options.  Tesla now decides what types of cars are likely to sell in a particular location, makes up some batches (no doubt with guidance from past and current orders), and ships hundreds of cars to its distribution points.  Order a Tesla, it’s in stock nearby, get it within days.  Logistics!  What Elon spent his birthday working on!  :)
I don't want to go too much back and forth on this, as I have no wish of derailing the thread. So I will make an effort to summarize this once and for all:
Demand constrained - would sell more cars if more orders came in.
Production consrrained - would sell more cars if managed to produce them.
When you have an inventory, and/or when you deliver cars in two weeks, that means you are demand constrained. If production doubled tomorrow, would more orders come in? No (unless prices were dropped, massive advertising, or some other costly lever used). ...
...
May I remind the forum, you can love Tesla and wish it well, but still keep on being objective about its challenges, weaknesses and failures. They do exist.

I believe you are mistaking ‘demand’ with ‘logistics.’  Tesla can sell every car it makes, and could do so even if it made twice as many — the difficulty is getting those cars to the people who want them, which is magnified now by the complications of getting much higher volumes to international locations. 

Inventory went to ~zero in the U.S. at the end of Q2; test-drive cars were being sold before other folks could get the chance for their scheduled test drive... that’s production and logistics constraint, not demand constraint.  That’s why Tesla can, and does, sell its cars sight-unseen, while offering a 7-day full-purchase-price return policy if you don’t love the car, even after taking a long trip.


Nothing is perfect, not even Tesla. ;)  I appreciate your polite disagreement.  Tesla is a surprisingly polarizing topic, which is why Neven made this thread and requested articles and links, rather than back-and-forth arguments.

So here’s one (pretty much at random):  https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/27/teslas-moats-tesla-can-do-what-other-car-companies-only-dream-about-and-why/

Edit:  Here’s a more appropriate one :) :
Tesla Takes 28% Share Of Western Europe BEV Market In H1 2019
https://insideevs.com/news/359636/tesla-28-western-europe-bev-market-h1-2019/
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 03:50:37 PM by Sigmetnow »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2920 on: July 15, 2019, 06:27:42 PM »
They stabilized the production it's why bloomberg isn't even tracking new CID anymore.

Tesla says they had more orders then deliveries in q2

Maybe come with some facts first before you go on a childish rampage.

Tesla sold less cars in H1 19 than H2 18, despite drastically lowering the ASP on all models. How is that for a fact? But ya, I'm sure production is set to double.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2921 on: July 15, 2019, 06:33:36 PM »
Some are spot on, but no fruitful discussion is possible.

The reason no fruitful discussion is possible: I make simple point. Bulls don't have an genuine response, so they claim I'm a troll and not worth responding to. This is stupid and shows their intellectual dishonesty, which I call them out on. Then they claim me calling them out on this is the rude and thus the real reason they don't respond. In reality, they do not respond because there is no reasonable response which aligns with their pre-determined view on Tesla as Savior.

I was a big Tesla fan 6 years ago. Took a test drive, cuz my parents had a desposit for a S (due to my convincing). But over time Musk exposed himself as a fraud. The S is still a great car. Amazing car really. But Musk is a con man, and has ruined Tesla. It is so obvious that it is maddening to watch people turn a blind eye.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2922 on: July 15, 2019, 07:12:25 PM »
U.K.:
Quote
theaaroncush (@theaaroncush) 7/14/19, 5:15 AM
looks like the UK can now buy a Model 3 on PCP which means you have the option to keep the car at the end of the contract — significantly cheaper per month than hire purchase too.
https://twitter.com/theaaroncush/status/1150333104449564674
[Textpic and more info at the link; this type of purchase is more expensive overall, but about £200 less per month, which may be the most important factor for some buyers.]
< This is a fairly standard vehicle purchase scheme in the UK. It's financed as a loan rather than a lease.

——-
Groggy T. Bear (@GroggyTBear) 7/7/19, 11:40 AM
Quote
In 2018, the Model S failed some of Euro NCAP's driver assistance tests.
In 2019 the Model 3 set the record for the HIGHEST safety assist score NCAP has ever recorded.
The hardware on both those vehicles is IDENTICAL.
The difference is software.    W / fleet learning and OTAs.
https://twitter.com/groggytbear/status/1147893091153731585
Fleet hardware chart shown below.

     —- EURO NCAP testing vid
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 7/13/19, 5:23 PM
Quote
Clearly shows who is the technology leader in here. Emergency braking system. Tesla vs Bmw
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1150153817553399808
Brief video at the link shows TM3 stopping; audio includes sound of BMW’s smash into the dummy pedestrian as parts go flying!


——- Q2 customers -> Q3 ambassadors
Steve Tesla (@tesla_truths) 7/3/19, 1:26 PM
Quote
In Q2 Tesla expanded its sales force by 95,200.
Every person that checks out that new Tesla their friend got?
Well, it won’t be long before they buy one too. This is the secret behind Tesla’s continued growth, and why it’s just the beginning.
https://twitter.com/tesla_truths/status/1146470240043167745


——-
Daniel Bear (@DanielToeller) 7/3/19, 11:49 PM
Quote
When 5 year olds are walking past my model 3 saying “look mom a Tesla!” I start buying more shares. Already deposited the cash...
https://twitter.com/danieltoeller/status/1146626964150804480

Tesla to make Tomorrowland electric in new partnership with Disney, sources say
Quote
Tesla is reportedly in discussions with Disney to sponsor and make the Tomorrowland Speedway electric in a new partnership to promote electric transport.

The Tomorrowland Speedway is a ride at Disney’s Magic Kingdom Park in Orlando, Florida where kids can take the wheel of a gas-powered go-kart to drive along a scenic track.

According to a report from Just Disney, a news site about all things Disney, Tesla is talking with the entertainment company to sponsor the racing attraction and make it electric:

‘Our sources inside the company are giving us whispers of Elon Musk meeting with top execs on how Tesla would truly put visitors behind the wheel of all electric vehicles. Tesla would sponsor the speedway and surrounding stadium and give guests the true vision of “driving in the future”.’...
https://electrek.co/2019/07/14/tesla-disney-tomorrowland-electric/
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 07:19:45 PM by Sigmetnow »
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2923 on: July 15, 2019, 08:01:55 PM »
Tesla hasn't increased their model 3 production rate in over about a year

They stabilized the production it's why bloomberg isn't even tracking new CID anymore.

Production
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 28,578 24,761 53,339
Q3 2018 53,239 26,903 80,142 
Q4 2018 61,394 25,161 86,555
Q1 2019 62,950 14,150 77,100
Q2 2019 72,531 14,517 87,048

Deliveries
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 18,440 22,300 40,740
Q3 2018 55,840 27,660 83,500
Q4 2018 63,150 27,550 90,700
Q1 2019 50,900 12,100 63,000
Q2 2019 77,550 17,650 95,200


Model 3 production rate: 29 53 61 63 72
'stabilized' huh?

As for deliveries, when you start delivering further afield there is a longer pipeline that has to be filled before sales start coming out the other end. Single quarter fall when international deliveries started makes sense.




Tunnelforce9

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2924 on: July 16, 2019, 01:13:45 AM »
Quote from: crandles
Your best defence seems to be to claim that by 'this year' you meant year ending 30 June 2020

no my best proof is that subcontracters are doubling their production.
Quote
[CFTC has also landed orders for other components used in Model 3, with shipments to begin in October 2019, the sources said. As Tesla is hiking Model 3 output and its Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, eastern China, will kick off production of the electric vehicle by year-end 2019, CFTC's shipments to Tesla are expected to rise, the sources noted."
https://insideevs.com/news/359426/tesla-supplier-doubling-parts-production-model-3/

Quote
While Musk cautioned “we don’t have a crystal ball," here’s his full quote about how he arrived at the latest calculation:

“350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s, is what I said in the earnings call. And then we would expect to make somewhere between 70,000 to 100,000 of the S and X. So the lower bound would be 350,000 plus 70,000, and the upper bound would be 500,000 plus 100,000."
https://www.livemint.com/companies/people/elon-musk-s-new-forecast-for-2019-up-to-600-000-cars-1551413855883.html
« Last Edit: July 16, 2019, 01:19:24 AM by Tunnelforce9 »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2925 on: July 16, 2019, 02:11:58 AM »
Single quarter fall when international deliveries started makes sense.

So why did Tesla sell less cars in H1 19 vs H2 18 (and at much lower prices)? Increasing demand? Get a clue.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2926 on: July 16, 2019, 02:20:24 AM »
no my best proof is that subcontracters are doubling their production.

One subcontractor is apparently selling Tesla an extra 20k of relays (doubling the amount from before). Are you sure Tesla wasn't getting relays from someone else who is no longer selling to Tesla (likely due to failure to pay)? Do you actually know ANYTHING about China FineBlanking Technology? Are you aware that 20k relays probably does even cost $10k?!?

You are claiming Tesla is doubling production cuz they bought and extra $10k a month of a specific component. How absurd.

Tesla's biggest supplier, Panasonic, has actually cancelled plans for further investment into capacity for Tesla.

All bulls are blinded by hope.


Yesterday I had one roll of pennies. Today I have 10 rolls of pennies. I am 10 times richer today! (Please ignore that my house was foreclosed on this morning, and I think my car might have been reposed last night. Concentrate on the pennies.)
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Tunnelforce9

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2927 on: July 16, 2019, 02:21:03 AM »
Quote from: crandles
Model 3 production rate: 29 53 61 63 72
'stabilized' huh?

Correct they don't have any problems upping the production again.
I don't know if heard but they are busy with some amazing things right now at Tesla they are building the biggest machine of its kind that can make the car frame in one piece. which saves about 75% in number of parts for assembly, it's crazy

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2928 on: July 16, 2019, 02:25:48 AM »
I believe you are mistaking ‘demand’ with ‘logistics.’ 

Says someone who clearly knows NOTHING about logistics. No car company has a problem getting their cars to their customers. You are just willing to gulp down any excuse Tesla gives.  The demand has fallen drastically. SOLD LESS CARS, AT MUCH LOWER PRICES. THERE IS ONLY ONE EXPLANATION. FALL IN DEMAND.
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Tunnelforce9

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2929 on: July 16, 2019, 02:37:46 AM »
Quote from: GoSouthYoungins
Tesla's biggest supplier, Panasonic, has actually cancelled plans for further investment into capacity for Tesla

Fake news !
They shouldn't believe analysts who get paid by ancient car companies via advertisement.
Battery production capacity of 54 Gwh is planned for 2020.
In March this year it was 35 Gwh.

that means Growth

I think next year we will also see the introduction of a new Maxwell battery for Tesla's


GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2930 on: July 16, 2019, 02:44:37 AM »
Quote from: GoSouthYoungins
Tesla's biggest supplier, Panasonic, has actually cancelled plans for further investment into capacity for Tesla

Fake news !
They shouldn't believe analysts who get paid by ancient car companies via advertisement.
Battery production capacity of 54 Gwh is planned for 2020.
In March this year it was 35 Gwh.

that means Growth

I think next year we will also see the introduction of a new Maxwell battery for Tesla's

Ya, total BS.
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Tunnelforce9

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2931 on: July 16, 2019, 02:47:11 AM »
Lets take a look at the latest charts for the US so you can point me to the enormous dropoff you keep mentioning  8)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2932 on: July 16, 2019, 01:44:20 PM »
Planned obsolescence?  Not so much!

This Record-Setting Tesla Model S Has 900,000 Kilometers On Odometer
July 15, 2019
And the 1,000,000 km mark will likely be reached later this year.
Quote
Hansjörg Gemmingen, known in the EV world for setting the mileage record for the first-generation Tesla Roadster (620,000 km / 385,251 miles), just set another milestone, but this time in a Tesla Model S.

Gemmingen has already covered 900,000 km (559,350 miles) according to two images shared on July 14. The Model S P85 (one of the oldest versions) is reportedly running on its second battery pack. That’s a remarkable amount of miles for any car and few gasoline-engined cars would go that far without an engine replacement. What’s even more impressive is that someone actually drives this much and choose a Tesla to do so.

The Tesla High Mileage Leaderboard lists the top mileage Teslas and, as it turns out, Hansjörg Gemmingen holds two out of the top three spots, while Tesloop holds three in top five. There may be other high-mileage Teslas out there, but their mileage has not been reported on the leaderboard, so we can’t officially include them in this highest milage list.

Top known mileage:
   •   Tesla Model S P85 – 559,350 miles (900,000 km)
   •   Tesla Roadster (2010 R80) – 385,251 miles (620,000 km)
   •   Tesla Model X 90D – 371,756 miles (598,282 km)
   •   Tesla Model 3 LR RWD – 71,817 miles (115,578 km)
https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2019/07/15/tesla-model-s-900000-kilometers-odometer/

———
Tesla V3 Superchargers Are Getting “250 kW” Signage
July 15, 2019
Quote
One of the first Tesla V3 Supercharging station in Hawthorne, California recently was retrofitted with red “250 kW” sign according to the Steve Jobs’ Ghost.
It’s most likely that Tesla is now experimenting with labeling the power output, probably to help drivers at least in the transition period where there will be both V2 and V3 Superchargers.
The new V3 Superchargers at the Tesla Factory in Fremont reportedly didn’t get labels yet.
The power output is also displayed on the Tesla car navigation map.

About Supercharging V3:
   •   New architecture of chargers
   •   1 MW power cabinet, which can support up to 250 kW per car (four stalls per power cabinet)
   •   no power sharing between the Superchargers (previously two stalls shared 120 kW of power, 150 kW after upgrade)
   •   cuts charging time by up to 50% (when the battery is warmed up)
   •   expected typical charging time to drop to around 15 minutes
   •   expected to serve more than twice the number of customers per hour (than V2)

Tesla charging capabilities (latest and/or top versions):
   •   Model 3 – up to 250 kW
   •   Model S/Model X – up to 200 kW
https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2019/07/15/tesla-v3-superchargers-250-kw-sign/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2933 on: July 16, 2019, 01:49:01 PM »
Quote
Ming Zhao (@mingcalls) 7/15/19, 3:30 PM
Local news says $tsla China GF3 will start training new workers on July 29 to prepare for test production in as early as September. Formal production may begin in December, aiming for weekly 3000 Model 3s next year.
https://twitter.com/mingcalls/status/1150850209712263168
Textpics (Chinese) at the link.

—-
Tesla Gigafactory 3 buildout continues at rapid pace amid ongoing hiring ramp
Quote
Much of the work in the site is currently being done inside the main factory, but some operations is still ongoing in the facility’s exterior, which is now being refined. Images from the flyover show workers paving the roof with concrete, while finishings in other sections of the facility are being done.

Reports from local media have also mentioned that Tesla is continuing its hiring efforts for Gigafactory 3, which is expected to be operational by the end of this year. Over the course of several job fairs, Tesla has reportedly hired a notable number of workers, including those from other automakers such as Volvo and General Motors. With these efforts, Tesla is building up a workforce that is skilled and experienced in China’s auto industry.

The multiple job fairs that Tesla has been holding for Gigafactory 3 suggest that the electric car maker is expecting the facility to start operations sooner rather than later. Elon Musk has stated that he expects the facility to start manufacturing the Model 3 sometime before the end of the year, though local reports from China have pointed to the possibility of production activities beginning as early as September.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-enters-phase-2-buildout-video/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2934 on: July 16, 2019, 01:55:03 PM »
The Tesla Model 3 Has Invaded My Neighborhood: Yours May Be Next
Quote
My community in Los Angeles is under assault.
By a vanguard of new Model 3 owners: my neighbors have been snapping up Model 3s like, well, there’s no tomorrow.


I live in an area northwest of downtown Los Angeles which, for reasons I’ve never quite understood*, has become a hotbed of EVs. That includes lots of Model X, Model S, Chevy Volt, and a smaller, yet growing, population of Chevy Bolts.

But the Model 3 is in another league. By my estimate, it’s the most popular new car in my community.
Zoom in on my immediate neighborhood, three of my neighbors have new Model 3s (all purchased within the last 4 months or so). Zoom out to the entire community (several hundred homes), we’re probably talking about at least a dozen purchased in the same time period.
And there is practically a plague of Model 3s if I include nearby communities.

The Bolt began production (October 2016) before the Model 3 (July 2017) and is a lot less than the Model 3. The Chevy, with an EPA rated range of 238 miles, got almost universally good reviews. And it falls roughly into the popular crossover category (technically it’s a hatchback).

Still, Chevy sold only 1,659 Bolts in the U.S. in June 2019, while Tesla sold a whopping 21,225 Model 3s, according to InsideEVs. And the overall totals are even more lopsided.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2019/07/14/the-tesla-model-3-has-invaded-my-neighborhood-yours-may-be-next/
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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2935 on: July 16, 2019, 02:31:41 PM »
Single quarter fall when international deliveries started makes sense.

So why did Tesla sell less cars in H1 19 vs H2 18 (and at much lower prices)? Increasing demand? Get a clue.

I'm not really sure why you are hanging onto this.  Q1 19 clearly skews the half year figure, as does the reduction of the US tax credit at the end of Q4 2018. 

If production in Q2 2019 hadn't picked up or if the number of unsold cars had significantly increased as a result of increased production then you might have a valid argument.  Instead all I see is a man with an agenda desperately looking at the figures for justification. 

What I see is a company that delivered significantly more cars than it produced in the last quarter  and produced more cars in the quarter than it has ever done in a previous quarter.  That does not speak to me of being constrained by demand.

The downside of this is that Tesla appear to be pushing beyond safe limits to meet this demand.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/16/20695986/tesla-electric-tape-missing-nuts-bolts-production-targets-model-3

 

 


NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2936 on: July 16, 2019, 06:13:37 PM »

The downside of this is that Tesla appear to be pushing beyond safe limits to meet this demand.


Perhaps but the indications coming out of China are that Tesla new hires for Gigafactory 3 are going to start work around the end of July.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-employees-starts-july-2019-report/

With a whole new factory to work with, the stress on the current facilities will reduce a bit.

Remembering that the output of Fremont is, so far, servicing the debt taken on to delivery Gigafactory 3.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2937 on: July 17, 2019, 11:13:20 AM »
I don't usually take notice of Tesla's share price, driven as it is more by rumour of glory and failure.

But it has been going up steadily recently. When something is happening steadily with/at Tesla, perhaps its time to take note.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2938 on: July 17, 2019, 02:13:47 PM »
I guess shareholders are waiting for Q2 numbers

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2939 on: July 17, 2019, 03:20:11 PM »
I guess shareholders are waiting for Q2 numbers

They are waiting for their cyborg update.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2940 on: July 21, 2019, 07:35:32 PM »
Tesla Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai China (July 19 2019)
4K Update 上海特斯拉超级工厂3建造进度更新 - YouTube


Tesla Gigafactory 3 Ahead Of Schedule — July 17th Update
Quote
Tesla's global VP Tao Lin said that Model 3 model produced in the first phase of the Shanghai plant will adopt a global supply chain, but the supply chain is constantly being optimized and will find suitable partners on a global scale to upgrade the Shanghai plant effectiveness.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/17/tesla-gf3-ahead-of-schedule-july-17th-update/

Quote
Chao Zhou (@realChaoZhou) 7/18/19, 1:06 AM
Source from GF3 security that the [electrical] substation will be completely operated by November 15th.
https://twitter.com/realchaozhou/status/1151719956087619585
[Photo at the link.]
- The substation is 220KV, the total investment is $10,497,177.00. The entire substation project is civil construction and power construction.
- It will take about 6 months to complete, it will probably be built in September (the substation starts construction on April 8).
- Construction of the main building in September will be completed, the substation will be also completed during this period, they are put together.

< what is the purpose of the building next to substation?
- Part of the substation.
< Odd that it is on south side but power lines are on north.
- The cables are buried underground.

Quote
Chao Zhou (@realChaoZhou) 7/19/19, 9:13 PM
Tesla contracting workers dormitory.
https://twitter.com/realchaozhou/status/1152385917216161792
Brief video at the link.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2941 on: July 21, 2019, 07:50:56 PM »
Giga3 ready to increase production!!!!

Meanwhile Tesla has insufficient demand at their current prices, and have lowered prices again.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/07/20/tesla-cuts-prices-again-its-not-good-news.aspx
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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2942 on: July 21, 2019, 11:18:33 PM »
Giga3 ready to increase production!!!!

Meanwhile Tesla has insufficient demand at their current prices, and have lowered prices again.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/07/20/tesla-cuts-prices-again-its-not-good-news.aspx
How does increasing the base price by 4-5000 increase demand?
Even if the new base is higher spec, you are still moving the car out of the affordability level of some buyers.

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2943 on: July 22, 2019, 01:43:02 AM »
Within a few days we'll all know whether Tesla has been dumping inventory to pay the bills, or has been selling cars at a profit.
Wed. July 4th after the bell will tell the tale.


Dumping inventory isn't a sign of genius, it's a sign of desperation. A profitable quarter, especially a strong enough quarter to indicate the possibility of a profitable year, will leave Tesla in a strong position for sustainable profitability going forward - even in the face of lower governmental subsidies.


Charismatic CEOs have been an interesting feature of global capitalism at least since Ivar Kreuger lit up the world with his safety matches and his unsafe investment schemes.
 
In America Walter E. Scott, also known as Death Valley Scotty had a long career selling worthless mining claims and capturing headlines by traveling across America by commercial rail at "neckbreak" speed. (His)? Death Valley Castle is now a museum of sorts, although it was eventually revealed that Scotty was merely the caretaker of the estate, working for an eccentric millionaire who eschewed publicity and preferred that Scotty be seen as the owner.


A.G. Bell, Thomas Edison, Jeff Skilling, Elisabeth Holmes, and even our MAGA president all fit the bill along with Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Ted Turner and Mark Zuckerberg.
Some were crooks, most were blowhards, a few actually changed the world.


How will Elon Musk be viewed a generation or two in the future?
Wednesday's reveal will offer a hint.
Terry


Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2944 on: July 22, 2019, 02:09:47 AM »
The financial results of Q2 are almost meaningless in the great scheme of things. The EV revolution is here.

Everyday EVs are replacing ICE’s at a faster pace. Batteries and solar are becoming competitive in most markets. Things are about to pick up speed.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2945 on: July 22, 2019, 02:16:50 AM »
Within a few days we will know whether Tesla has been losing a large amount of money ($400M-$500M), a smaller amount ($300M), or a much smaller amount ($100M-$200M). I don't think there is any serious expectation of a quarterly profit.
$300M and smaller will be a good result IMHO.
Much will be made of the outlook for Q3 and the full year. If Q3 is expected to turn a profit, things will be considered good.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2946 on: July 22, 2019, 02:42:50 AM »
How will Elon Musk be viewed a generation or two in the future?

Terry, I guess that depends on whether he finally succeeds or whether it all falls flat on its face.

I think there are some things to look at though when trying to look into the future.

The Jaguar iPace is being held up as a Tesla killer.  A quick look at Jaguar sales v Tesla sales tells an interesting story.  Tesla has sold over 160,000 vehicles so far this year.  Jaguar sells less than 200,000 vehcles each year.  Jaguar and Land Rover sell less than 700,000 vehicles per year and Tesla is likely to come close to exceeding that next year, if not actually exceed it.

The possibility that JLR will kill Tesla with ONE model is, on the face of it, unlikely.  The very real competitors who are emerging are the Japanese manufacturers and, if they can ever get their act together, the European manufacturers.

A lot is being said about JLR getting GBP1bn from the UK government and they are adding another billion themselves to build an EV factory in the UK.  Tesla are spending around $5bn on Gigafactory3 at Chinese build and labour costs.

The scale is not comparable.  But the echo chamber just won't quit.


As for SpaceX?  The incumbents in the Space business have allowed SpaceX to race so far ahead of them that the SpaceX cost of launch is, essentially, unassailable and SpaceX keep on pushing profits into R&D and products which reduce the launch costs even more. Whilst also creating ever larger and more re-useable launch vehicles.

The legacy Musk leaves behind will be fairly large.  Whether it is, in the end, positive or negative, will take a decade or two to play out.

However the next set of financial results will be telling.

When we do get these financial results, we have to remember that, regardless of how good or bad they are, Tesla has enough money and committed finance to operate to the end of the year and fully complete the build out and ramp up of Gigafactory 3.
The operational profit will be critical in H2 of 2019 as it will pave the way to funding the 2020 agenda and the releases of all the new models in the pipeline.  Or at least providing the solid foundation for going back to the market and funding it.

We should also see functional ride hailing in 2020 and the first FSD with Robotaxi around 2021.

By which time the only close scrutiny of Tesla manufacturing numbers will be to see how much more R&D they can fund.

All of which completely ignores solar roofs and energy generation and supply.

Well that is how I see it being played out.  I doubt whether anything really significant will happen in the next 6 months but the stock will continue to roller coaster as the bears and bulls play with it for their own ends.

As Archimid says, EV's are here to stay and are the target everyone is aiming at.

If you think back, what was the last truly ground breaking innovation in the ICE world??  Personally I think it was the integration of electronics into the engine itself and the self tuning features that went with it.  i.e. physical timing adjustment during runtime and the ability of valve followers to change the profile of the valve lift and dwell dynamically within the rev range.

Since then?  Small incremental changes.  All the R&D money is heading for EV.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2947 on: July 22, 2019, 05:13:22 PM »
Model 3 price cuts have basically assured that margins have improved, as Tesla predicted in their outlook letter, and they are advancing their mission “to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.”
It’s difficult to see that, when you look at Tesla through Bear glasses, but price cuts pressure other automakers.

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 7/16/19, 8:58 AM
In one year, @Tesla dropped the price of Model 3 Performance by $25,000.
Imagine what this does to the resale values of @BMW & @MercedesBenz
Both @BMWGroup & @Daimler’s balance sheets are *heavily* dependent on resale values due to tens of billions in leased vehicle portfolios.

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1151113852395896832
- Neither @BMWGroup nor @Daimler will be profitable in 2019, and I expect yet another round of “profit warnings” in August... and September... and October, etc.
< Tesla is following the Amazon path. Sell as many units as possible at break even, then make a boatload of money when you have market dominance and sell services on the platform.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2948 on: July 22, 2019, 05:35:49 PM »
With the new reduction in the federal credit from $3750 to $1875,  Tesla had to reduce prices to avoid a big demand cliff, which may yet still happen.
This doesn't prove margins are better - Tesla could choose to lower the margin to preserve order rate.

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2949 on: July 22, 2019, 05:57:26 PM »
This doesn't prove margins are better - Tesla could choose to lower the margin to preserve order rate.

Or it could do so to increase order rates.
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