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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3350 on: August 21, 2019, 06:54:07 PM »

... and bringing the sites back up to code ...


Tesla solar is often installed by third parties.   
The installation was signed off by the city, so at the very least it was up to code.


< Here's the question... why only Walmart... it's also possible that they were tampered with?  A trend would indicate something... but not when it's only with one company...
<< How did a fire happen after panels were disconnected?
<<< Arson

Quote
Financial analysts - We don’t include #Tesla’s solar / battery business in valuation because it’s insignificant. Tesla is just a car company

Also Financial analysts - These Walmart claims will destroy Tesla’s solar business. It’s a huge deal and will lower $TSLA
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1164113709960237057
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3351 on: August 21, 2019, 07:16:32 PM »
In truth, Tesla battery business is significant, but the solar business is negligible and a cause of losses and should be cut off at the first opportunity. If not for Elon's tall arguments during the Solar City acquisition, and for the commitments taken in regards to the Buffalo factory, I am sure this would have happened already.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2019, 07:32:40 PM by oren »

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3352 on: August 21, 2019, 07:29:19 PM »
In truth, Tesla battery business is significant, but the solat business is negligible and a cause of losses and should be cut off at the first opportunity. If not for Elon's tall arguments during the Solar City acquisition, and for the commitments taken in regards to the Buffalo factory, I am sure this would have happened already.
From what I've been reading Elon's pumping the solar side of the business now - as in this week.
Terry

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3353 on: August 21, 2019, 07:32:49 PM »
In truth, Tesla battery business is significant, but the solat business is negligible and a cause of losses and should be cut off at the first opportunity. If not for Elon's tall arguments during the Solar City acquisition, and for the commitments taken in regards to the Buffalo factory, I am sure this would have happened already.

That goes completely against Tesla’s Master Plan. If that were to happen my support for Tesla would decrease.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3354 on: August 21, 2019, 08:04:13 PM »
Solar City was, and is, a loss making business that should have been closed rather than using Tesla shareholders wealth to rescue it (and Elon's cousins) from assured bankruptcy. Its been declining ever since the Tesla rescue.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4265411-tesla-afford-abandon-solar-roof-fantasy

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/walmart-shines-light-on-elon-musks-solarcity-deal-in-tesla-suit.html
« Last Edit: August 21, 2019, 09:25:47 PM by rboyd »

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3355 on: August 21, 2019, 08:13:20 PM »
Cars and solar cells work well together, not from a business but from a technological standpoint. Solar cars will be a thing not too far in the future.

When a car company is investing in solar cell technology it's to have a headstart. It's the smart thing to do.
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rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3356 on: August 21, 2019, 08:23:02 PM »
So the power companies should also own kettle manufacturers given this kind of synergy? Solar panels are simply a provider of electricity just like any other (wind turbines, hydro, nuclear, coal, gas etc.). Tesla should be focused on making its cars rather than defocusing its attention on phoney synergies in unrelated areas.

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3357 on: August 21, 2019, 08:27:47 PM »
Dat analogy...  :D

How would you build a solar car without solar cells, rboyd?
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3358 on: August 21, 2019, 09:16:39 PM »
Dat analogy...  :D

How would you build a solar car without solar cells, rboyd?


Stanley Solar Steam Cars? :)
Terry

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3359 on: August 21, 2019, 09:20:03 PM »
Terry, it's a thing. And then there is another thing. It's already happening.


“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.”

cognitivebias2

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3360 on: August 21, 2019, 09:31:56 PM »
Terry, it's a thing. And then there is another thing. It's already happening.

Pretty cool, but a bit gimicky.  Why not just install the solar panels at home and charge overnight.  I know I prefer to park my car inside anyway.

rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3361 on: August 21, 2019, 09:44:36 PM »
Dat analogy...  :D
How would you build a solar car without solar cells, rboyd?

You can't so you buy them from a supplier who specializes in the production of solar cells, and has much bigger scale because they provide cells to many different customers. Actually, I think thats exactly what Solar City does to some degree, doesn't it, partnered with Panasonic? Its factory still seems to be having major issues:

Inside Tesla's troubled New York solar factory

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-solar-insight/inside-teslas-troubled-new-york-solar-factory-idUSKBN1KT0DU

How can you build a self-driving car without microprocessors, blumenkraft? Same answer (and ad nauseum for many, many other car components).

Ford tried the route of 100% vertical integration many decades ago (had their own iron foundries on site for example) and then found it better to have specialist firms provide such things. The Toyota Production System does very much the same thing, and was taken on by the rest of the automobile industry (the book The Machine that Changed The World is a very good take on Toyota), shame they can't seem to get their head around EV's.



rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3362 on: August 21, 2019, 09:49:46 PM »
Terry, it's a thing. And then there is another thing. It's already happening.

Pretty cool, but a bit gimicky.  Why not just install the solar panels at home and charge overnight.  I know I prefer to park my car inside anyway.

In the Snowy North those panels would get covered with snow an awful lot too. In the rainy/cloudy/misty Northern Europe they also would not work very well. Probably better in areas nearer the equator with lots of sunshine and good solar insolation - like Southern California?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3363 on: August 21, 2019, 10:31:49 PM »
200 of the 240 solar panel systems were installed from 2010 - 2014. Tesla acquired SolarCity in 2016
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 8/21/19, 9:36 AM
SolarCity began installing solar panels for Walmart in 2010 (Belfore Model S, Model X, and 3)
They installed 200 systems between 2010 - 2014, and 40 more systems after that
This was equipment purchased from third parties, not made by SolarCity. Installed by local contractors
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1164169512859635712
Quote
  Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 8/21/19, 10:05 AM
Our story starts in 2010 — before the Model 3, before the Model X, before the Model S. When the Model Y wasn’t even a twinkle in Franz and Elon’s eyes
That a year, a little company called SolarCity did it’s first Solar installation on a Walmart store. ir.tesla.com/news-releases/…
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1164176735170170885
- Four years later in 2014, SolarCity had installed more than 200 solar projects at Walmart locations. Walmart was so happy with their work they signed another contract for 40 new solar projects in 36 states for the next 4 years.
In 2016, Tesla acquired a struggling SolarCity.
- Tesla didn’t do solar at all until the 2016 acquisition
- Now let’s dig into the lawsuit. Out of 240 stores, 7 had fire issues. Wow, that’s a lot, right?
Well, if you do so simple division you’ll notice that after 10 years 97% of the stores had no fires.
It doesn’t seem like SolarCity was massively and recklessly unsafe

- Instead of screaming and losing our heads, let’s look at the facts:
Nobody got hurt. The stores didn’t burn down. And 97% of the installations had no issues in almost 10 years since the installations began.
WalMart claims SolarCity was negligent, saying:
- That many of the Tesla panels had defects that could be seen “by the naked eye” or were “easily identifiable”
Okay. If these problems were so obvious now, why did nobody at Walmart ever notice them? Have they been maintaining their stores properly to ensure customer safety?
- We have this idea in America: “innocent until proven guilty”
The courts will decide who is really at fault here. This system prevents companies like WalMart from making fake complaints that generate bad PR because they want out of their solar lease contract.
Judges are smart.
- If the courts determine that SolarCity was negligent in installing these panels, it’s not going to bankrupt Tesla. They will cancel Walmart’s lease and take the panels back, or settle
The courts will find the truth. These are third party panels installed by contractors
- SolarCity was a financial services company essentially. They didn’t make panels themselves. This doesn’t have anything to do with the Tesla panels being produced today.
So on one hand here you have an accusation against a company Tesla acquired... but nobody is talking about VW
- Hmmmm an unproven accusation against a company Tesla acquired... or the fact that VW has been proven GUILTY of continuing to use emissions cheating devices and countries like South Korea are beginning to BAN their cars.
Guess which story everyone is covering frantically?
- the same “financial news” outlets accusing Tesla of negligence over a project it didn’t even do just don’t think emissions that destroy our health, harm mothers and babies and destroy the Earth are a big deal
Instead of mobilizing the public against VW cars, they go aftert Solar
- They know that if they write about what VW did people would be shocked and not buy their cars. Countries would ban them. So they don’t do it. There’s a lot of money on the line
They’d rather send the message to people: SOLAR WILL BURN YOUR HOUSE DOWN
97% of Walmart had 0 issue
- So as the $TSLAQ douchebags run to their keyboards to spread fake outrage and try and make a buck, go buy some stock.
This bullshit doesn’t matter. People are fed up with fucking emissions!!! They’re fed up with destroying the Earth and peoples health.
Everyone will drive EVs
- Think about the big picture and the long term, and think critically. People are lying to you because these leaps in technology are going to destroy them.
When a story creates more F, U, & D than it warrants, it’s FUD!
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 8/21/19, 10:19 AM
Trust me — if Tesla solar was burning houses down, you would have heard about it.
Every single issue with any Tesla product is amplified on social media and retweeted to the fucking moon until it becomes an international news story.
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1164180185706618880
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 8/21/19, 12:42 PM
so now you might ask, why are they suing Tesla?
Probably because they want out of the 20 - 30 year contract for solar power they agreed to with SolarCity.
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1164216332675682304
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3364 on: August 21, 2019, 11:08:50 PM »
When running a business the business point of view is the one that's calling the shots. The synergy between Tesla and solar technology sounds good in principle, but financially it's a disaster. That's all there is to it. If a part of your business loses money with no prospects of improvement, and you lack some strategic advantage to turn this around, you must cut it off.
The new scheme of renting solar is the worst. It hits cash flow hard, Tesla stays with a fast-depreciating asset, and the customer is risk free and can cancel any time. This for a product/service where upfront installation costs are the real bitch, and where falling prices mean someone in a few years will offer the same for cheaper, and the customer will switch without looking back. Terrible idea, and this for a company ridden by major debt, that only recently had to raise more capital to allay fears of bankruptcy. Stupid.
As opposed to some of the posters here, I do want Tesla to survive and succeed. So this makes me worried. If such stupid decisions are being taken, this increases the risk of failure significantly.

sedziobs

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3365 on: August 21, 2019, 11:54:19 PM »
The new scheme of renting solar is the worst. It hits cash flow hard, Tesla stays with a fast-depreciating asset, and the customer is risk free and can cancel any time.
I agree. It seems like there must be some limitations on the new monthly no-contract solar. Otherwise, especially in northern areas, customers could simply cancel each fall and then re-up again in the spring. There would be no reason to pay a monthly fee that is more than what the solar system will save. And that means a much longer payback period for Tesla. An annual pricing scheme might make sense, but that still doesn't avoid the risk that something better/cheaper will come along leaving Tesla with a stranded asset.

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3366 on: August 22, 2019, 12:16:01 AM »
Quote
That's all there is to it. If a part of your business loses money with no prospects of improvement, and you lack some strategic advantage to turn this around...

Tesla has huge plans for solar and together with batteries and EV’s  solar power does provide a strategic advantage to Tesla.

I think the synergy between solar, batteries and EVs will be more obvious soon.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3367 on: August 22, 2019, 03:53:13 AM »
^^
YeaBut


When you need to borrow money to pay the bills, that's not a sign of fiscal health. ::)
When your bank account looks healthy because you borrowed the cash from Visa. Master Charge may begin to worry.
Terry

Very true.  However we're not talking about 100 year old car companies which can no longer produce cars at a profit because they can't get rid of enough staff or enough production facilities when demand drops.  As was the case in the other bankruptcies.

We are talking about a company which is still building out it's product portfolio, still producing technologies to enable their vehicles to compete and win, producing software to extend their lead into new areas (FSD/ride hailing), going into totally new markets (Semi's).  Building their own computers for their vehicles and doing such a good job of it that they take a 4 year lead on their competitors.

Let us also not forget their new battery tech and the potential to go into Lithium mining in some way or another.

At the same time building out a totally new manufacturing facility in China to be able to meet pent up latent demand which they simply can't deliver from the USA factories.

This is a whole different world from a company which makes a widget but simply can't make it cheap enough to make a profit and, eventually, goes under.

It is worth repeating.  The US has not had a new major vehicle manufacturer enter the market in 100 years.  Why?  Because the market is highly competitive, the manufacturing is very complicated and expensive to do and customers are fickle and have little brand loyalty.

To even get close to half a million vehicles in a year, let alone with enough money in the bank to keep on operating and growing for the  next year or two, is an incredible achievement.  Yet we keep on hearing that it's not good enough.  Before Musk and Tesla did this it was considered impossible.  Now they have done the impossible all we hear is "that's not good enough" or "you are not doing it the way we expect".

Hell no, of course they are not doing it the way the market expects.  If they did that, they would have failed, it would have been impossible.  They have achieved the impossible by doing things a different way.

Just ask yourself, how much profit does Google make and when do they pay a dividend?  Then think that Google manufactures very little.  Most of it is software.

Even if Tesla does make a constant profit, it will never be a big profit because they will simply increase R&D and Capex to complement as they continue to grow.  Because they won't have a big profit by design, every time there is a dip in a quarter they will run the risk of running a loss.

That's Tesla.  It doesn't mean it's going to fail.  It just means it is different.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3368 on: August 22, 2019, 04:55:50 AM »
Quote
When you need to borrow money to pay the bills, that's not a sign of fiscal health
Yess Terry still talking bullshite.
Tesla is borrowing to expand manufacturing capacity and develop new products .
The cars them self's make a margin that is one of the highest in the industry.
As this has been pointed out many many times one must ask.
Is Terry suffering from a disability? or is he just in denial?
If Tesla just concentrated on building the S and did not expand into the X and the 3 with the y and B (truck) to come as well as the roadster2 and semi it would be a small bouquet car company making  money.
Instead of a rapidly expending disrupter of the car industry.
Being a rapidly expending disputer has been widely published as the entire point of Tesla.
From 2006
Quote
As you know, the initial product of Tesla Motors is a high performance electric sports car called the Tesla Roadster. However, some readers may not be aware of the fact that our long term plan is to build a wide range of models, including affordably priced family cars. This is because the overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution.
snip
Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options

part 2 2016
Integrate Energy Generation and Storage
Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works, empowering the individual as their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world. One ordering experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app.
Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport
Today, Tesla addresses two relatively small segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below
.Autonomy
As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability, meaning that any given system in the car could break and your car will still drive itself safely. It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.
Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators. We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day.
So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:
Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it.
https://www.tesla.com/en_NZ/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me
August 2, 2006
https://www.tesla.com/en_NZ/blog/master-plan-part-deux
 July 20, 2016

Plans can change over time.
However Tesla have exceeded expectations so far and are leading the charge towards electric cars
by at lest a generation as the lack of competition from the "Tesla killers" Audi e tron and jag i pace demonstrate.

 American cars are viewed as backward, unreliable, illhandling crap in most of the world .
They simply can not compete on the world stage and are only brought by a few idiots who do not know any better.
Tesla is the only US auto manufacturer that has managed to change that paradigm in decades.
The model 3 is being benchmarked against the best there is world wide and found to be as good as or better than the legacy industry's halo cars.

We also have the Tesla power pack which has altered the energy industry landscape with solar or wind plus battery storage  making gas peaker plants uneconomic to build or run. Tesla did not stop there they have already introduced a larger format solution that promises to be even more disruptive in the megapack.

I find it mind boggling  we have Americans attacking their success or making claims of losses based on  ignoring the obvious investment into their  expansion in future capacity and product range .

Ps I was saving comment #100 for a good rant.
 ;D
PPS NeilT is a true skeptic unlike some. He can see the value in what they have done even though he has doubts about electric cars.

« Last Edit: August 22, 2019, 05:02:51 AM by KiwiGriff »

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3369 on: August 22, 2019, 06:42:49 AM »
The new scheme of renting solar is the worst. It hits cash flow hard, Tesla stays with a fast-depreciating asset, and the customer is risk free and can cancel any time.
I agree. It seems like there must be some limitations on the new monthly no-contract solar. Otherwise, especially in northern areas, customers could simply cancel each fall and then re-up again in the spring. There would be no reason to pay a monthly fee that is more than what the solar system will save. And that means a much longer payback period for Tesla. An annual pricing scheme might make sense, but that still doesn't avoid the risk that something better/cheaper will come along leaving Tesla with a stranded asset.

There is a removal fee of 1500 if you cancel. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1124625_tesla-offers-new-solar-rental-program

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3370 on: August 22, 2019, 06:47:30 AM »
The something better would have to be a lot better to justify removal.

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3371 on: August 22, 2019, 07:19:27 AM »
sig
You posted a piece that claims that causing fires in "only 3%" of their installations is acceptable.
Would you put one on the roof over your nursery?


oren
Right On!
When Elon bailed out himself and two cousins using Tesla stockholders money he was playing with fire - and it could well be the straw that causes everything to unravel.


sedz
Exactly!
More than "stranded assets" Tesla is gambling a bunch on a scheme that even his very reckless cousins were loath to risk. Kimbal needed to borrow a million from his new bride just weeks ago. That has to be an embarrassing way to begin a marriage! Why couldn't he go to his brother?


Archi
What synergies are you expecting from the buy out? It's been ~3 years since the acquisition and Solarcity's installations have dropped every year. Tesla has spent billions that could have gone into R&D, pissed off New York State and pissed off a large % of prospective Tesla EV buyers who are very upset about the service that the solar division provided.
Now he's going to war with Walmart, & Walmart has deep pockets.


Neil
You're looking at the 16 year old tesla as a growth company. I agree that Tesla is facing a growing debt load, but:


Sig told us of a new motor that's better than anything Tesla has.
GF1 isn't completed and Panasonic isn't interested in further investment.
GF2 is facing a >$40mm yearly fine for not complying with promised growth.
GF3 is being built on land rented from the Chinese Government, was financed by Chinese financiers who's note comes due ~when the factory opens. Is re-financing secured? And Tesla has guaranteed the Chinese Government >$300mm annually in taxes.
2 of the European companies are far ahead of Tesla re. self driving tech. I don't think it's a biggy, but some Tesla investors do.


If Tesla "never turns a profit" even more investors will leave for brighter prospects. You or I might choose to invest in a company that doesn't care about making large profits, but investment funds have a fiduciary responsibility to their clients, not the businesses they invest in/or against.
I've only been able to sign off as "not financially involved" since Fidelity pulled their funds.


I try to refrain from responding to posters that simply regurgitate talking posts.
So I'll sign off now. ::)
Terry


[edit Sorry about the cross post inters

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3372 on: August 22, 2019, 11:09:00 AM »
Quote
Archi
What synergies are you expecting from the buy out? It's been ~3 years since the acquisition and Solarcity's installations have dropped every year. Tesla has spent billions that could have gone into R&D, pissed off New York State and pissed off a large % of prospective Tesla EV buyers who are very upset about the service that the solar division provided.
Now he's going to war with Walmart, & Walmart has deep pockets.

From Tesla's 2006 Master Plan:

Quote
I should mention that Tesla Motors will be co-marketing sustainable energy products from other companies along with the car. For example, among other choices, we will be offering a modestly sized and priced solar panel from SolarCity, a photovoltaics company (where I am also the principal financier). This system can be installed on your roof in an out of the way location, because of its small size, or set up as a carport and will generate about 50 miles per day of electricity.

If you travel less than 350 miles per week, you will therefore be “energy positive” with respect to your personal transportation. This is a step beyond conserving or even nullifying your use of energy for transport – you will actually be putting more energy back into the system than you consume in transportation!

From Tesla Master plan part deux this was further refined to:

Quote
Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works, empowering the individual as their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world. One ordering experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app.

We can't do this well if Tesla and SolarCity are different companies, which is why we need to combine and break down the barriers inherent to being separate companies. That they are separate at all, despite similar origins and pursuit of the same overarching goal of sustainable energy, is largely an accident of history. Now that Tesla is ready to scale Powerwall and SolarCity is ready to provide highly differentiated solar, the time has come to bring them together.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3373 on: August 22, 2019, 01:55:11 PM »

Spectacular.  This is the most prolific vomiting up of TSLAQ talking points I’ve seen in quite a while.  You really should get out more to other sites.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3374 on: August 22, 2019, 02:01:25 PM »
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth)8/20/19, 11:17 AM
“Tesla will probably sell a billion dollars in regulatory credits this year. That’s a billion dollars for free” — Ron Baron
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1163832516295499777

Moody’s upgrades Tesla (TSLA) to ‘Stable’ over Model 3 efficiencies, adequate liquidity
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-moodys-upgrade-model-3-efficiencies/
   
Tesla is poised to take a big chunk out of the Japanese car market, just as it has done with the “impenetrable” German market.
Tesla Model 3 gets Japanese car critic’s approval: ‘The excitement alone must be worth getting this car’
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-japan-car-critic-approval/
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sedziobs

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3375 on: August 22, 2019, 03:27:03 PM »
There is a removal fee of 1500 if you cancel. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1124625_tesla-offers-new-solar-rental-program
Tesla says "If you want your system removed to restore your roof to its previous condition, it will be $1,500 to cover Tesla’s cost". What I am talking about is simply skipping the monthly payments through late fall and winter. It's not clear what the outcome of that would be. "Monthly payment can be cancelled anytime" and "no long term contract" point toward no penalty. But maybe there is a "short term" contract that means automatic removal if you skip a payment.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3376 on: August 22, 2019, 04:15:09 PM »
Apparently VW is considering a TSLA acquisition. I kinda doubt it, but it does make sense from a fraud synergy standpoint. Acquisition is the only way that the equity equals = anything other than 0.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3377 on: August 22, 2019, 04:19:30 PM »

Spectacular.  This is the most prolific vomiting up of TSLAQ talking points I’ve seen in quite a while.  You really should get out more to other sites.

Terry takes the effort to explicate his points. Your reply is pathetic.

This reminds me the effort to discredit the whistleblower who recently pointed out how structurally bankrupt GE is. The guy goes into great detail about tons of specific points. The GE simply say that he is wrong and just talking his book.

I my life I have never seen situation play out where the side unwilling to get into the weeds in a discussion turned out to be correct. Never.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3378 on: August 22, 2019, 05:03:21 PM »
Tesla lawyer’s response to the Walmart lawsuit.  You really need to read the whole thing.  Walmart wants the solar (and continues to claim solar energy is generated at its sites) — but demands to break the contracts they originally signed.

https://www.wholemars.com/TeslaResponse.pdf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3379 on: August 22, 2019, 05:48:27 PM »

Spectacular.  This is the most prolific vomiting up of TSLAQ talking points I’ve seen in quite a while.  You really should get out more to other sites.

Terry takes the effort to explicate his points. Your reply is pathetic.

This reminds me the effort to discredit the whistleblower who recently pointed out how structurally bankrupt GE is. The guy goes into great detail about tons of specific points. The GE simply say that he is wrong and just talking his book.

I my life I have never seen situation play out where the side unwilling to get into the weeds in a discussion turned out to be correct. Never.

Did I say what he said was wrong?  No.  I said it was TSLAQ. 
Simply a point of reference, since he gave no links.  Readers may choose to believe TSLAQ claims, or not.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3380 on: August 23, 2019, 03:48:15 AM »
Neil
You're looking at the 16 year old tesla as a growth company. I agree that Tesla is facing a growing debt load, but:

Actually I was comparing a 16 year old company, a leader in its market and with a product well ahead of the competition, with 80 year old companies (at the time), which were incumbents who should have known better.  But still ran themselves into bankruptcy.

Tesla is doing well for a company which is doing the impossible.  Don't you think?  After all, doing the impossible is not supposed to be profitable at all, yet they have managed to do that a few times.

I can't think of many things which would be more difficult than starting a new international car manufacturing company from the ground up, as a start up, then reaching nearly half a million cars sold per year.  Granted they have not quite got there yet but it is likely for 2020.

Perhaps starting a completely new space launch system and making it the leading company for price, cadence and lift capacity.  Now that would be a real achievement wouldn't it?  After all it was only Governments that could do it wasn't it?

To go back to the top of this reply of mine, the biggest killer in the Auto business is oversupply.  Where car companies spend billions making and shipping cars to dealers that people have not ordered and do not want.  Then having to sell those cars at below manufacturing cost to get them off inventory and into positive cash flow.  A problem Tesla does not have.  Yet.

Tesla has the money to operate for the next two years at current profit rates.  If profit increases, they will have even more.

To touch on another point about Tesla making money for shareholders.  Tesla is making money for investors.  Actually quite a lot of money.  The lions share of the funds raised this year were convertible bonds.  As Tesla goes at the moment, those bonds will be paid back, rather than converted, at quite a handsome profit.  This has been going on for quite a while now and ensuring that investors will buy more if Tesla goes back to the markets again.

It is easy to ignore the fact that Tesla will have paid back more than $1.5bn in convertible bonds between the end of Q2 2018 and the end of Q4 2019.  Being able to pay this kind of funding means that when the costs for Gigafactory3 come due it is quite likely that Tesla will have the money to pay it.

As for the "tax" situation, it would be interesting to see what they are talking about.  If they are talking about the $600m in value added tax they would be paying on 150,000 vehicles sold, or the taxes paid for their workers or whether it is tax on profit for the year.  As the specific tax is not clarified, it is hard to determine what Tesla is expected to pay.

At the moment Tesla has a profit margin on their vehicles above 0%.  The fact that the vehicles are funding solar roof, servicing, supercharging and a whole host of other things like Semi development, Model Y development, computer development (don't even begin to think that is over, they are working on HW 4.0 right now), plus AP enhancements leading to FSD and the development of a ride hailing product, means that Tesla is not falling over.  It means they are growing and expanding.

Tesla is hardly producing the next Edsel.
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rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3381 on: August 23, 2019, 04:14:16 AM »
Tesla doesn't have a "profit rate", it runs at a loss (US$408 million in the second quarter, US$702 million in the previous quarter). Its cash position stems from an offering of equity (US$750 million) and convertible bonds (US$ 1.6 billion) added to the US$2.2 billion that they had left, so paying off the debt is really a flow through from new debt to old debt.

Quote
Tesla tapped the markets again after Elon Musk overestimated the ability of the Model 3 sedan to generate enough cash for the company to be self-sustaining. The chief executive officer said on several occasions last year that Tesla would no longer need to raise capital as its first mass-manufactured car ramped up. Musk changed his tune after the first quarter, when a record decline in vehicle deliveries and the company’s biggest-ever debt payment depleted its cash balance to a three-year low of $2.2 billion.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-03/tesla-raises-2-35-billion-in-boosted-debt-stock-offerings-jv82k0mf

He has also stated after the cash raise:

Quote
“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!” Musk wrote Thursday. “This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.”

So, at the Q2 burn rate and taking into account elapsed time maybe a year at best to be cash positive - otherwise another money raise will be required. If we are in a recession (highly likely) the Tesla burn rate will be higher and the debt and equity markets a lot less open to providing the required cash. Lets remember that at the moment the markets are in "ludicrous mode" with valuations for companies such as WeWork, Uber, Shopify etc. at 2000 dot com bubble levels. That never lasts.

Tesla also relies heavily on credit provided to it by suppliers, it had US$3.4bn of accounts payable as of June 2019. This puts a limit on how far its cash position can drop before suppliers start causing serious issues as they worry about lack of payment. There does seem to be some pushback starting, as the average days outstanding for AP has been falling recently - i.e. suppliers are extending less credit to the company.

A couple of more quarterly disappointments and a less favourable market environment and things could go down the tubes very, very quickly. Then probably a rescue takeover from another manufacturer on terms that will drive a lot of losses for equity and bond holders. I am not saying that this is a certainty, but it is a definite possibility given the very high debt gearing of this company.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/17/18629166/elon-musk-tesla-money-changes-cfo-employee-expenses

The company also has to pay off convertible debt in 2021 (when it has to pay back US$1.3 billion) and 2022 (another US$977 million), unless the share price is a lot higher.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 04:51:56 AM by rboyd »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3382 on: August 23, 2019, 06:56:48 AM »
So Tesla knew that their solar shit sucked and started fires. They didn't tell anyone, but instead initiated a stealth program to replace them with a tiny team of ppl.

fElon Musk really is just the shittiest person. A flaming turd. I think we should send him to Mars. And then nuke it like he wants.
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GrauerMausling

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3383 on: August 23, 2019, 07:24:49 AM »
I have done what I can for the 'Tesla glory' part and ordered a Model 3 - but then again, if they loose money on each car they deliver, as some members of this forum claim, is it more for the 'Tesla failure' part? In this case I hope that they survive at least until I get it, which should be mid of September 8)

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3384 on: August 23, 2019, 12:42:38 PM »

He has also stated after the cash raise:

Quote
“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!” Musk wrote Thursday. “This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.”

So, at the Q2 burn rate and taking into account elapsed time maybe a year at best to be cash positive - otherwise another money raise will be required. If we are in a recession (highly likely) the Tesla burn rate will be higher and the debt and equity markets a lot less open to providing the required cash. Lets remember that at the moment the markets are in "ludicrous mode" with valuations for companies such as WeWork, Uber, Shopify etc. at 2000 dot com bubble levels. That never lasts.

Tesla also relies heavily on credit provided to it by suppliers, it had US$3.4bn of accounts payable as of June 2019. This puts a limit on how far its cash position can drop before suppliers start causing serious issues as they worry about lack of payment. There does seem to be some pushback starting, as the average days outstanding for AP has been falling recently - i.e. suppliers are extending less credit to the company.


Some corrections:

The cash raise was early May so q2 results weren't out then.

This 'gives us about 10 months' was in a employee email so intended to be motivational.

If you looked at result you can see this is based on Q1 results:

Q1: Cash & equivalents $2198m GAAP loss 708 so about 3.1 quarters cash at that loss rate so about 10 months.

Q2 Cash and equivalents is nearly $5bn. GAAP loss was $408m. So that gives 12 quarters or 36 months not 10.

Cash flow might be better or worse than losses usually depending whether you are investing more than depreciation. If in trouble, you stop investing so much and there is no sign of that.

Accounts payable is down to 3.1bn from 3.4bn at December 2018. You say 'the average days outstanding for AP has been falling recently' and I am not disagreeing but a different interpretation is possible: if needed average days could be pushed up a little if further finance was needed.

36 months cash available and probably more if pushed does not sound like 'very very quickly' to me. They have done the expensive learning parts, new plants like Shanghai will be more capital efficient.

A drop off in demand due to recession could be painful but I don't think we are seeing that for electric cars or Tesla. Recession for ICE cars, yes, electric no. Maybe that will change, or maybe more people will see what is already showing as indicating the way forward.


NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3385 on: August 23, 2019, 01:33:14 PM »
Thanks Crandles.  I was trying to be Conservative with the cash available for operations.  There is a very real problem emerging in the EU economy and this is going to hit demand for new, expensive, EV's.  I see some more bumps along the road. The US is still growing well, unemployment is down and jobs continue to grow. That is not the same in the EU.

There was a reason why I posted the average wage differential between Norway and the UK. It is even bigger in France where the median wage is around $20,000 per year.  Trying to sell cars at 3 times the median wage is a niche market and certainly not the preferred sales model of a M3.

I don't think it will kill Tesla, but it may provide a speed bump.  Hence I carved a year off the operating projections in case they continue to make loses because of the economic problems in the world.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3386 on: August 23, 2019, 01:52:41 PM »
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 8/23/19, 2:01 AM
A joint statement from Tesla & Walmart. Looking forward to see some positive outcome.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1164779793771945986
< I'm glad this happened. Kudos to Walmart for backing down, and to Tesla for supporting legacy customers acquired from another company.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3387 on: August 23, 2019, 04:00:28 PM »
I have done what I can for the 'Tesla glory' part and ordered a Model 3 - but then again, if they loose money on each car they deliver, as some members of this forum claim, is it more for the 'Tesla failure' part? In this case I hope that they survive at least until I get it, which should be mid of September 8)

Your car will be very fast and very fun. Enjoy. But don't trust the Auto Pilot or the Summon...just drive it yourself.

Also, make sure you have back up transportation lined up. The likelihood of a mechanical failure and delayed repair is very high.

Finally, don't park it in your garage unless it is detached from your house. Practice fire drills. And maybe buy an enormous fire extinguisher. The one I have linked to below is quite expensive (and still may not be able to stop a Tesla fire) but it may come in handy.

https://www.grainger.com/product/13J013?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI6rGkv5KZ5AIVDtRkCh2qeAsjEAQYAiABEgI32vD_BwE&cm_mmc=PPC:+Google+PLA&ef_id=EAIaIQobChMI6rGkv5KZ5AIVDtRkCh2qeAsjEAQYAiABEgI32vD_BwE:G:s&s_kwcid=AL!2966!3!50916688677!!!g!82166702877!?cm_mmc=PPC:+Google+PLA
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sedziobs

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3388 on: August 23, 2019, 04:27:13 PM »
Have an electrician install a 14-30 or 14-50 outlet wherever you park overnight. You can buy an adapter to plug the included charging cable into that. Will save a bit of money compared to buying Tesla's wall charger, and you can also plug other EV charging cables into it. Don't be paranoid about fires. Enjoy having less fumes in your garage.

I've had mine for a year and the only time it's been in a shop was when I purchased a set of winter tires. I don't have Autopilot so can't comment on that.

Get insurance quotes from around 5 different companies. They will vary considerably. I got a good rate with Erie.


rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3389 on: August 23, 2019, 06:17:01 PM »
[Some corrections:

The cash raise was early May so q2 results weren't out then.

This 'gives us about 10 months' was in a employee email so intended to be motivational.

If you looked at result you can see this is based on Q1 results:

Q1: Cash & equivalents $2198m GAAP loss 708 so about 3.1 quarters cash at that loss rate so about 10 months.

Q2 Cash and equivalents is nearly $5bn. GAAP loss was $408m. So that gives 12 quarters or 36 months not 10.

Cash flow might be better or worse than losses usually depending whether you are investing more than depreciation. If in trouble, you stop investing so much and there is no sign of that.

Accounts payable is down to 3.1bn from 3.4bn at December 2018. You say 'the average days outstanding for AP has been falling recently' and I am not disagreeing but a different interpretation is possible: if needed average days could be pushed up a little if further finance was needed.

36 months cash available and probably more if pushed does not sound like 'very very quickly' to me. They have done the expensive learning parts, new plants like Shanghai will be more capital efficient.

A drop off in demand due to recession could be painful but I don't think we are seeing that for electric cars or Tesla. Recession for ICE cars, yes, electric no. Maybe that will change, or maybe more people will see what is already showing as indicating the way forward.

The average days payable went up a lot previously and is now going down, i.e. the suppliers are now resisting any possibility of further extensions - the possibility is now for further reductions if the suppliers see any bad quarters from Tesla. Its not Tesla that is calling the shots on this one anymore.

Tesla cannot go below about $2 billion cash and equivalents, as thats the basic working capital requirement (accepted that they do have some of a line of credit available, but if they start drawing on that it will send alarm bells to investors and suppliers).

The company is now basically in a "non-linear" setup given the gearing - success will rapidly drive up the share price etc., failure will collapse things very fast (buying a call and a put option at the same strike price and exercise date may be a very good trade here, perhaps closer to the next results?). The state of the general financial markets will also have an impact as to the possibilities/affect on current equity/debt holders of any new cash raise.

Tesla's are expensive relative to the average car, therefore they may be quite impacted by recession (plus increasing competition in the segment).

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3390 on: August 24, 2019, 02:00:42 AM »
Re. Tesla's suppliers.


Even before Tesla's announcement that the Chinese M3 will be running on South Korean LG batteries (sure to impress GF3's Chinese landlord), comes the buried news that Panasonic's Thomas Gebhardt " CEO - Regional head for North America - Chairman & CEO Panasonic Corporation of North America" will leave has left his position July 31 2019.


Just what effect this will have on the long standing relationship between Tesla & Panasonic, and their shared facilities at GF1 & GF2 can't be known.
How well Model 3's run using LG batteries will be learned when they hit the Chinese market.
Who will supply batteries to Tesla Power Walls may be up in the air - the widely heralded Australian Mega Battery project used LG batteries.


Announcing his departure in a footnote may be unusual in status conscious Japanese business culture.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAzTiQuXsAA52f2.jpg
bottom of the page - footnote


Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3391 on: August 24, 2019, 03:01:00 AM »
Panasonic said they’d be interested in making batteries for Giga3.  That no deal has been announced could be significant.  Or not. ;)  We do know that multiple suppliers were expected to be involved.

Tesla is tapping LG Chem as battery supplier for Gigafactory 3, claims report
Quote
LG Chem’s 2170 battery cells will reportedly be produced at the company’s Nanjing factory, which is located about 200 miles west of Shanghai. This relatively short distance benefits both LG Chem and Tesla, as cells produced from the Nanjing plant could be transported to Gigafactory 3 in a relatively short period of time.

It should be noted that LG Chem will not be the sole battery supplier for Gigafactory 3. According to Bloomberg‘s sources, Tesla is also in talks with Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd (CATL) about a potential supply deal.
...
The rapid progress of Gigafactory 3’s buildout has exceeded expectations, even those of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who already has a reputation for being very optimistic with his estimates. Musk noted during the facility’s groundbreaking ceremony last January that Gigafactory 3 will start trial production runs of the Model 3 at the end of December. Recent reports from China have suggested that Musk’s timetable could actually be conservative.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-lg-chem-battery-supplier-report/
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3392 on: August 24, 2019, 04:54:49 AM »
^^
I've heard that the factory could be up and powered by the end of next month.
Terry

BenB

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3393 on: August 24, 2019, 08:38:13 AM »
in spite of public transport being the quickest and most effective route to lower emissions,
I see that promoted a lot so let me throw some realities yor way.

London has the earliest underground network in the world…….London breaches its clean air commitment every year.  It used to be in the Autumn, now it is in the spring.  The reason is the sheer volume of FF vehicles coming into the city due to the sheer cost and congestion of public transport.

Neil, I'm totally in favour of EVs as well, and as I've said, I hope Tesla succeed. But all of the things you say about London don't change the fact that almost all forms of public transport have far lower emissions per person than cars and that even in Norway you only have under 10% of all cars on the road being electric at the moment. Because people hold on to their cars for 10-15 years, it takes a long time to replace all of them. Getting more people out of their cars and into buses/trains, and replacing diesel buses with electric buses (buses have a shorter lifespan than cars generally), is the quickest way to reduce emissions. Imagine London without any PT - it would be far worse. The reason that London has bad pollution is not that it has PT, it's that in spite of having an extensive PT network, people still use their cars far too much.

philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3394 on: August 24, 2019, 01:11:17 PM »
Mindlesness &Twitter insanity: Tesla's top investor wants to throw Elon Musk

Elon Musk is often criticized without consequences. But when the biggest Tesla shareholder calls for his replacement, the situation for Mr. Musk is getting serious.

James Anderson, one of the largest investor of the American automaker Tesla, has advised Elon Musk to step down. Anderson is a partner in investment firm Baillie Gifford and holds up to 7.5 percent of Tesla shares.

"We do not think Elon needs to be the CEO," Anderson told Manager Magazine. Tesla would also cope well without Musk, which is mainly due to its idiosyncratic communication style in the criticism.

Elon Musk should take as Amazon boss Bezos
His micromanagement also includes the desire to talk to the stock market and the world in a way that is not necessarily helpful" not to be entangled in the small and the small.

"I'm not sure that he (Musk) likes to hear that: But we can not remember when Jeff Bezos has the last time, or when Jeff Bezos has ever, participated in an analyst call, Anderson says.

Background to the criticism is therefore a number of tweets its, with the Musk specific production goals. This has been put on a mock-up for this social media posts on a. Musk uses his Twitter account, which quickly has 28 million followers, also to share his personal preferences and opinions, some humorously.

Criticism of Musk's management style
However, the top investor also had words of praise for Musk. Anderson is a clearer orientation for Tesla. "We do not want to stop Elon from being Elon. The advantages massively outweigh the disadvantages. However, we believe it is important to have more consistent messages, "says Anderson. "If you have an idea, for example, to give up all Tesla stores, then discuss this with your colleagues and the supervisory board instead of directly addressing the public. There we see clear weaknesses. "

Tesla shares on a downtrend
In general, shareholders are likely to have an ambiguous opinion about Elon Musk. After all, Musk is responsible for much of the hype surrounding Tesla and attracts large sums of money from investors. Nevertheless, the negative news pile up and the stock price is far from the former high of around 343 euros. Currently, the Tesla share is quoted at around 200 euros, more than 30 percent less than nine months ago.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3395 on: August 24, 2019, 01:38:50 PM »
^^
I've heard that the factory could be up and powered by the end of next month.
Terry


That is correct!!!  :o 8) :P :) ;) ;D

Tesla Gigafactory 3 reportedly on track for initial activation by end of September
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-operational-september/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3396 on: August 24, 2019, 02:06:45 PM »
What’s Tesla’s Role In EV Expansion? Cox Shows It Is Massive
https://insideevs.com/news/366190/tesla-role-ev-adoption-massive/

Great discussion of the study in this (13 minute) episode of the Tesla Daily unofficial podcast:
https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/tesla-daily-tesla-news-analysis/e/63335588

Here’s a link to the slides for the Cox Automotive presentation (pdf):
Cox Automotive:  EV Adoption Study
https://d2n8sg27e5659d.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/2019-COX-AUTOMOTIVE-EVOLUTION-OF-MOBILITY-THE-PATH-TO-ELECTRIC-VEHICLE-ADOPTION-STUDY.pdf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3397 on: August 25, 2019, 04:50:20 PM »
Porsche has a long, storied history of fast cars — but the 4-door Model S family sedan is quicker than the Taycan.  And it seems Elon was right about 250kW being the max rate to charge today’s battery packs without damage:  Porsche announced early on that the Taycan would have 350kW charging… but has now backed down to 250kW.  Where is the outrage about their unfulfilled promise? 

Teslas are better in so many ways.

Tesla Model S vs Porsche Taycan:


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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3398 on: August 25, 2019, 05:44:39 PM »
Where is the outrage about their unfulfilled promise? 

... crickets ... (obviously)
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.”

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3399 on: August 25, 2019, 05:54:08 PM »
 Range Taycan.
 EPA  451 km
NEDC 500km
0 to 60 3.4 sec

Model 3
EPA 500km
NEDC 600km
0 to 60 3.3 sec

Model S
EPA 600km.
0 to 60 2.4 sec

Another still born Tesla killer.....