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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3600 on: September 17, 2019, 08:49:59 PM »
Beats Taycan .
Epic.
The interwebs are going off over Porsche vrs Tesla.
  :D
...

And it gets better:
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 9/17/19, 12:09 PM
@Teslarati It’s a start. We expect these track times to be beaten by the actual production 7 seat Model S Plaid variant that goes into production around Oct/Nov next year.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1173992505672519680

< Will the 7 seat layout be a new layout?
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 9/17/19, 12:12 PM
 No, original 5 forward facing seats plus 2 rear-facing smaller seats. The new rear seats will accommodate larger passengers than before. [They were child seats.]
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1173993213234798592

< Will the other Models also be available on plaid variants soon?
EM: New Roadster and X will come later
< I guess new Roadster will easily beat the all time record of 6:44.97s?
EM: Absolutely


< Do you think the model 3 performance could beat the Taycan
EM: No, but very close
< Very close at fraction of a cost? I’ll take Model 3 please.
EM:  Actually, Model 3 would beat the Taycan on Nürburgring over multiple laps, as it has more range

Edit: Twitter “poll” ;) of sorts, below:
« Last Edit: September 17, 2019, 09:11:06 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3601 on: September 17, 2019, 09:21:05 PM »
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 9/17/19, 2:02 PM
Why can’t the biggest auto companies in the world beat Tesla?
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1174020780939628544
Some thoughtful (and less than thoughtful) replies at the link.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3602 on: September 18, 2019, 06:27:41 PM »
Apparently the Nurburgring was shortened by ~1 mile when Tesla's Plaid was being tested. This apparently is why track officials instruct manufacturers not to use these times. :-\


Good news however, Tesla has rented the track for 1/2 hour on the 21st & we may have an official lap time for the customised car. :)


Wiki explains the whole short track thing. (B2G = Bridge to Gantry)


Why anyone concerned with AGW is also concerned with high speed laps is a mystery to me.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3603 on: September 18, 2019, 08:24:53 PM »
Apparently the Nurburgring was shortened by ~1 mile when Tesla's Plaid was being tested. This apparently is why track officials instruct manufacturers not to use these times. :-\

Good news however, Tesla has rented the track for 1/2 hour on the 21st & we may have an official lap time for the customised car. :)

Wiki explains the whole short track thing. (B2G = Bridge to Gantry)

Why anyone concerned with AGW is also concerned with high speed laps is a mystery to me.
Terry

Terry, there are videos of each car’s run.  Pretty hard to cut a mile out and nobody notices!  ::)
« Last Edit: September 18, 2019, 08:57:55 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3604 on: September 18, 2019, 10:21:43 PM »
Quote
Tesla (@Tesla) 9/18/19, 2:00 PM
We installed a Supercharger at Nürburgring. Makes it feel like home, you know?
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1174382659058962432
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3605 on: September 18, 2019, 10:44:42 PM »
Apparently the Nurburgring was shortened by ~1 mile when Tesla's Plaid was being tested. This apparently is why track officials instruct manufacturers not to use these times. :-\

Good news however, Tesla has rented the track for 1/2 hour on the 21st & we may have an official lap time for the customised car. :)

Wiki explains the whole short track thing. (B2G = Bridge to Gantry)

Why anyone concerned with AGW is also concerned with high speed laps is a mystery to me.
Terry

Terry, there are videos of each car’s run.  Pretty hard to cut a mile out and nobody notices!  ::)


Normal ticket buyers on tourist days cannot quite complete a full lap of the 20.8 km (12.9 mi) Nordschleife, which bypasses the modern GP-Strecke, as they are required to slow down and pass through a 200-metre (220 yd) "pit lane" section where toll gates are installed. On busier days, a mobile ticket barrier is installed on the main straight in order to reduce the length of queues at the fixed barriers.
Wiki is the source - with my bolding.

The track record ...
was surpassed by Timo Bernhard in the Porsche 919 Hybrid Evo, which ran the slightly longer version of the circuit in 5:19.546 on June 29, 2018.

The record for the " Fastest street-legal electric car." is held by the Porsche Taycan on the full 20,600 meter track.
If Tesla enters a street legal car this Saturday, we'll all know what they are capable of, though I do think it's a terrible distraction from Elon's avowed mission.
Terry

philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3606 on: September 18, 2019, 11:48:40 PM »
For everyone with some knowledge about racing and track-times it's obvious that turn-speeds, or in other words, lateral grip and traction, count way more than straight line speed as long as the difference is not as high that one would speak about different classes.

IMO there is no way that a Tesla will ever beat a Porsche of the same class on a race track because to make a car faster than others on a race track takes decades of experience in many fields of expertise and fine tuning.

A Tesla would about 1/3 more horse-power to beat a Porsche on his kind of home ground.

We shall see, that's my take on it.


Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3607 on: September 19, 2019, 06:21:45 AM »
OKidoki.

Now, do you have the same "cult-leading fraudulent liar" feelings about other successful guys like, I don't know, Jeff Bezos for example ?

If not, why not ?

Whataboutism!  ;D

Neven, I know you don't like me on your forum, but this was just a question.
That cannot, almost by definition, be designated as "whataboutism".

What would be "whataboutism" would be if I would have made a statement. Something like this :

GoSouthYoungins, you forgot that Jeff Bezos is much more a "cult-leading fraudulent liar" than Musk has ever been, having his own personal "Amazon troll factory", a cult group of paid trolls that consistently sends out messages about how great Amazon is as an employer.

That would be a correct statement, since it is true.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/americas/2019/08/15/amazons-online-bezos-brigade-unleashed-on-twitter/

However, it would be "whataboutism" since I made a statement, rather than asking a question.

Sorry for going OT a bit, but in this war-of-words (pro- and against Musk/Tesla) it is important to differentiate.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2019, 07:43:05 AM by Rob Dekker »
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3608 on: September 19, 2019, 06:23:41 AM »
Quote
IMO there is no way that a Tesla will ever beat a Porsche of the same class on a race track
Isn't it sad when reality gets in the way of your delusions.
A pre production Tesla has lapped the green hell 20 seconds faster than a pre production Porsche.
We have been told for years this is the ultimate test of a performance car.

Quote
Nurburgring organizers forbid automakers from timing their own laps during Industry Pool sessions, and drivers are required to enter and exit the track from the pit area at Turn 13, making a complete flying lap impossible. So, given the traffic and the restrictions of Industry Pool testing, we feel certain that the highly-modified Tesla could be capable of an even faster lap time on an empty track during an official timed session. Our eyewitness did note that weather conditions were ideal during the lapping session, with temperatures around 64 degrees F and heavy cloud cover.

Still, that's mighty fast. Our eyewitness described the Tesla prototypes popping out to overtake 500- and 600-horsepower supercars during the Industry Pool lapping sessions. And the prototypes seemed able to complete full laps of the 12.9-mile course without any noticeable degradation in performance—previous Teslas had gone into limp-home mode after just a few corners of the 'Ring, likely due to battery overheating.

Our Nurburgring experts suspect that this isn't the last we've heard from Tesla at the 'Ring. There's an official lap-timing session scheduled for Wednesday night, where multiple manufacturers will get a chance to set a flying lap on an empty course, and Tesla is almost certainly signed up to run during this session. In addition, another timing session could be scheduled for Saturday evening (after the three-hour endurance race set for early Saturday)—rumor has it this will be a private session reserved by Tesla. We will be sure to keep you posted on any new developments in this ongoing battle for EV sedan supremacy at the 'Ring.
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/a29086205/modified-tesla-model-s-beats-porsche-taycan-nurburgring/

Tesla make better performance electric cars than Porsche.



blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3609 on: September 19, 2019, 06:33:39 AM »
Philopek, don't forget, both are serial sedans, not super sportscars modified for a race track.

Of course, Tesla can beat Porsche because Tesla is doing this EV thing for a long time now. Porsche has just started. And i assume they are still thinking in ICE terms.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3610 on: September 19, 2019, 10:53:26 AM »
With another wave of deliveries in the Netherlands, Tesla Model 3 has become the best-selling car in the country for the year as it now surpasses 10,000 units.
Quote
According to registration data (via kentekenradar), 2,261 new Model 3 vehicles were registered in the Netherlands so far this month — bringing the total sales of the Model 3 in the country in 2019 to over 10,000 units.

That’s more the 9,529 Volkswagen Polo vehicles and 8,265 Ford Focus cars delivered in the country so far this year.

Tesla already delivered over 4,000 cars in the country during the current quarter, and deliveries could reach close to 5,000 by the end of September.
https://electrek.co/2019/09/18/tesla-model-3-best-selling-car-netherlands/

nukefix

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3611 on: September 19, 2019, 11:31:30 AM »
Beats Taycan .
Epic.
The interwebs are going off over Porsche vrs Tesla.
That's indeed epic performance-wise. So far according to reviews the Model S has been described to drive like a muscle-sedan, not a sports-car. Traditionally Porsche has really excelled in the sportscar driving experience. I would imagin Taycan scoring high in this regard.

Regarding Tesla, where are the profits? The margins are going down as Model 3 cannibalises Model S sales, plus there are new viable competitors in the higher-end segment. This does NOT look good for Tesla.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3612 on: September 19, 2019, 01:36:23 PM »
Quote
Robb Holland (@robbholland3)9/18/19, 2:39 PM
Today they ran a 7:23 again. Full lap across the line
https://twitter.com/robbholland3/status/1174392436895801344

 ;)
Quote
Earl of Frunkpuppy (@28delayslater) 9/18/19, 9:14 AM
Rumor is that Porsche is having these installed at Nürburgring to slow down Tesla. twitter.com/eyeofastronomy…
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1174310792071647233
< SpaceX Package will hover just above the bumps. #ActiveSuspension

——
Tesla's Leadership At Nürburgring Is A Win For Everyone | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/18/teslas-leadership-at-nurburgring-is-a-win-for-everyone/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3613 on: September 19, 2019, 01:42:39 PM »
Quote
Tesla (@Tesla) 9/19/19, 12:03 AM
Model 3 has earned the IIHS 2019 Top Safety Pick+ Award, earning top scores across all eight tests covering crashworthiness, occupant protection, crash avoidance, and headlight systems.
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1174534412010217472
1-min of Tesla crash test vid clips at the link.

Tesla Model 3 receives Top Safety Pick+ award from the IIHS
Quote
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) has released the results of its crash tests for the Tesla Model 3, and just like other safety agencies in the US and abroad, the organization has granted the all-electric sedan its highest rating available. In a recent announcement, the IIHS has revealed that the Tesla Model 3 qualifies for its Top Safety Pick+ award.

The IIHS notes that to earn the Top Safety Pick+ award, a vehicle must get good ratings in the driver-side small overlap front, moderate overlap front, side, roof strength, and head restraint tests. Good ratings are also required in the passenger-side small overlap test and the headlight evaluation, the latter proving to be a tricky metric that is rarely aced by carmakers.

The Model 3 earned good ratings across the board for crashworthiness, with the vehicle’s front crash prevention system getting a superior rating after successfully avoiding collisions in both the 12 mph and 25 mph track tests. The Model 3’s strong frame also allowed the vehicle to perform well in challenging tests such as the driver-side small overlap front test. Additionally, the Model 3’s headlights received a good rating for being bright enough without causing glare to other drivers.

With its results, the Tesla Model 3 joins the all-electric Audi e-tron and the hydrogen-powered Hyundai Nexo as the IIHS’ Top Safety Pick+ vehicles for 2019. Speaking about these results, IIHS Chief Research Officer David Zuby remarked that the stellar safety performance of these vehicles proves that cars with alternative powertrains do not compromise in terms of safety. “Vehicles with alternative powertrains have come into their own. There’s no need to trade away safety for a lower carbon footprint when choosing a vehicle,” he said. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-iihs-top-safety-pick-plus-award/
2 minute IIHS video on alternative-fuel cars they tested at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3614 on: September 19, 2019, 07:52:13 PM »
Your move, Porsche!  ;)

Quote
Tesla (@Tesla)9/19/19, 1:41 PM
Data from our track tests indicates that Model S Plaid can achieve 7:20 at the Nürburgring.
With some improvements, 7:05 may be possible when Model S returns next month.

https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1174740201421377537
Until then, auf Wiedersehen Germany...
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1174740593542651904
< You forgot your charger. Who will use that charger?!
At the second link, images reflecting Mechanical Power and Longitudinal Acceleration along the (entire! ::)) lap.
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philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3615 on: September 19, 2019, 09:56:38 PM »
Either way the record, even if achieved, does not hold if the Tesla does not meat the requirement to be "purchasable"  model/variation and this means it needs to have passed the necessary procedures, not announced again and then will never happen. A 5-seater without backseats and carpets to make it less heavy won't do.

To tune the car beyond stock by stripping it of any unnecessary weight and the likes won't do for an official record in the category of standard vehicles with street legal registration.

Street legal alone won't do, it has to be standard equipped in a way that you can currently order from the shelf and Elon's typical: "it will be in two years" won't help to make any lap time being officially recognized.

The Taycan that was tested and against the time that the Tesla will run was full standard AND street legal "stock" version of a Taycan that can be order the way it run.

Only exception to above rules are eventual safety equipment needed to get permission to run.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2019, 10:14:00 PM by philopek »

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3616 on: September 19, 2019, 10:26:19 PM »
It is worth looking at the price of a Taycan.

I was saying that it was competing with a model S.  That is incorrect, it is competing with a Ferari 488.

The fact that a model S is coming even close to a Taycan in power, longevity under power and speed round the track is a major win for Tesla in marketing terms.

The Taycan is competing for an entirely different crown and is close to being dusted by the equivalent of a street racer.

Forget on ramp to off ramp with the Taycan, it does adaptive cruise control.  My best man was working on that at the end of the 1980's.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3617 on: September 19, 2019, 11:26:41 PM »
Easy my fellow zealots. The track in question has been rented by the company in question just two days from today.
A factory modified Tesla Plaid wrapped in the skin of a Tesla Model S will either complete a standard lap or it won't. It will either come close to the lap time of a street legal Porsche or it won't.

Until the results are in why get into such a tizzy?
This isn't another case of Elon Time, we'll all know the results on Saturday.
Terry

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3618 on: September 19, 2019, 11:32:12 PM »
It is worth looking at the price of a Taycan.

I was saying that it was competing with a model S.  That is incorrect, it is competing with a Ferari 488.

The fact that a model S is coming even close to a Taycan in power, longevity under power and speed round the track is a major win for Tesla in marketing terms.

The Taycan is competing for an entirely different crown and is close to being dusted by the equivalent of a street racer.

Forget on ramp to off ramp with the Taycan, it does adaptive cruise control.  My best man was working on that at the end of the 1980's.
In the end, there is a limit to the power that can be put into an Internal Combustion Engine under the hood of an automobile.

There is a limit on electric engines, but my guess is that it is a lot higher with marginal weight / size increase.

Controlling that power - a different story. Tesla is ahead of the game from having a totally integrated computer control system? Maybe it will be a totally autopiloted EV that will own the ring?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3619 on: September 20, 2019, 02:37:56 AM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 9/12/19, 2:12 AM
Model S at Nürburgring has 7 seats
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1172030269756305408
Perhaps this is the blue Model S, that turned in the achingly slow time of 7:40 (still two seconds faster than the Taycan ;)).  See the update in this article:
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/a29086205/modified-tesla-model-s-beats-porsche-taycan-nurburgring/

—-
And here’s a fun little video: ;)
Quote
TeslaChartz (@ChartzTesla) 9/19/19, 1:30 PM
Bob Lutz on @CNBC talking about the #Porsche #Taycan #Nürburgring times versus @Tesla. The video is clearly not edited. ...
https://twitter.com/chartztesla/status/1174737548930899974
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philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3620 on: September 20, 2019, 04:44:42 PM »
https://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/tesla-abrechnung-mit-elon-musk-die-firma-ist-nicht-mehr-zu-retten_id_10416319.html?obref=outbrain-fol-web&cm_ven=focus_outbrain

Translated by google, link above goes to original article:

"The company is beyond saving"

Thursday, 07.03.2019, 18:34
US investor Mark B. Spiegel is considered one of the toughest Tesla critics. In the interview, he accuses Elon Musk of lying and doubts that Tesla can keep his predictions. And he raves about the German car makers.

FOCUS-MONEY: They have long been on falling courses at Tesla and say so publicly. Some find this immoral, not least Tesla boss Elon Musk himself.

Mark B. Spiegel: I would like to give you two answers. First, Musk is probably the most immoral CEO I've ever seen. He throws dangerous cars with in my view untested "autopilot" on the road, he manipulates stock prices for me; and this "environmentalist" keeps using his private jet, even for short distances. So much for morality. But moral is not a relevant category when buying or selling stocks. You place a bet on how the stock will move. If I were convinced that Tesla was the best company in the world, but at the same time would believe that it went bankrupt, I would also bet on falling prices.

"Tesla shares extremely overvalued"
MONEY: You claim that you are serving the public.

Mirror: Yes. On the one hand, I warn against problems with this stock. It has been clear to me for years that she is extremely overrated. Even if one disregards the lies and frauds, the price is only justified if one assumes that the production figures are in the millions. I think that is completely out of the question. Second, we try to alert the regulators to the safety issues of the cars, especially the autopilot. Third, we warn potential buyers. They can take note or not, at least everyone knows what he's getting into.

To person
Mark Spiegel, 57, heads the hedge fund Stanphyl Capital. He first recorded a small short position on Tesla in 2013, which has since grown to "several million dollars". Spiegel criticizes Elon Musk for years publicly, among other things on the short message service Twitter. The passionate Porsche driver lives in New York.

MONEY: You accuse Elon Musk of misleading the markets. But he too can not look to the future, right?

Spiegel: As CEO, one can predict forecasts of certain market movements that fall into the category of "Safe Harbor". You must not be sued if they do not occur, provided the statements were made in good faith. But Musk not only pushes these boundaries, he simply transgresses them in my view.

MONEY: Where, for example?

Spiegel: The assertion in the summer of 2018 that Tesla could be withdrawn for $ 420 a share was probably the most glaring incident. A smooth lie. He did not get away with it, but he got a very light sentence for the CEO of a publicly traded company. Everyone else would have been fired.

FOCUS Online recommends:
"Extremely strange": Profiler puzzles why Rebecca's father defends his son-in-law
15-year-old is still missing: This is the chief mediator, who should find Rebecca
Bayern: Hoeneß avoids attack on Löw, but announces comment
MONEY: That would be the task of the Supervisory Board.

Spiegel: The supervisory board is scared stiff of Musk, he does not dare to fire him, and so he ultimately got away with a small penalty by the Securities and Exchange Commission SEC and some conditions. For example, Tesla was supposed to appoint an independent boss - and appointed a woman who was already on the board, which in principle does not take place at all and tells Musk that he controls her and she does what he wants. On top of that, he has publicly said on television that he does not respect the Securities and Exchange Commission SEC ...

Elon Musk: Does the purpose sanctify the means?
MONEY: Why is he getting away with it?

Spiegel: Some journalists and politicians say: well, it's not lies, just exaggerations, and in the end, everything that he prophesies happens. Others say, "Yes, he is a liar, but he is 'our' liar." These people - I dare to compare them to certain supporters of Donald Trump - are, unfortunately, convinced that the end justifies the means. But we are not dealing here with a religious community or sect, but with a company. And if a CEO always says the untruth, then that questions the company as a whole.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3621 on: September 20, 2019, 05:07:58 PM »
...
To person
Mark Spiegel, 57, heads the hedge fund Stanphyl Capital. He first recorded a small short position on Tesla in 2013, which has since grown to "several million dollars". 
...

So Spiegel has a direct, personal interest in seeing Tesla stock prices fall.  He gives a press interview so that investors can be swayed in a direction that personally benefits him.

This is like citing a coal company CEO about why coal extraction is good for humanity.

Tesla *might* be a terrible investment, but words from such a person cannot rationally be used to support any such conclusion.

philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3622 on: September 20, 2019, 05:52:58 PM »
...
To person
Mark Spiegel, 57, heads the hedge fund Stanphyl Capital. He first recorded a small short position on Tesla in 2013, which has since grown to "several million dollars". 
...

So Spiegel has a direct, personal interest in seeing Tesla stock prices fall.  He gives a press interview so that investors can be swayed in a direction that personally benefits him.

This is like citing a coal company CEO about why coal extraction is good for humanity.

Tesla *might* be a terrible investment, but words from such a person cannot rationally be used to support any such conclusion.

Many people who see and tell the truth started with personal interests in the first place.

This is a common excuse to nullify the inconvenient.

I don't know the guy but i know me and i know my education and level of knowledge when it comes to corporate governance.

What i KNOW and what i suspect and see evidence for is in almost 100% agreement with what this man says which is why i posted it.

Further the question is, is he short because he believes it won't work or does he claim it won't work because he is short?

Think about it. Only an idiot would first take a postition  without reason and later defend it against all odds.

More probable is that people go LONG without reason but due to hypes and later regret it.

Don't forget that long position are kind of natural human behavior and often are based on hearsay and fanboyism and natural thinking patterns while short positions are mostly taken with good reason, based on skepticism and insight into economics.

My opinion about Tesla products is based on personal preference which is why i like Tesla Cars.

My opinion about Tesla Enterprises is based on education and 50 years of experience as board advisor and CEO of various Investment and later Industrial Enterprises.

My Opinion about Elon Musk is based on education, experience and studies in philosophy, psychology and other fields that allow to analyze human behavior and characteristics, originally
mostly motivated by the above mentioned fields of works in management and counseling.

Currently I'm still active in as a board advisor for a startup in the field of sustainable and natural food production and provision with a >10B population in mind. I'm mainly responsible for corporate governance as well as ethical management practices.

As you can see my opinions for different parts of the tesla story are not only different but based on different sources and most certainly are not based on this man's opinion and his eventual interests but it's the other way around. I share his opinion about the company's future an the man's ethics based on my very own assessments.

cognitivebias2

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3623 on: September 20, 2019, 07:12:20 PM »
It should suffice to say that there exists a short mentality on Tesla that is very robust.  The veracity of that mentality will play out over time.  No one reading this board is unaware that it exists.  Some, myself included, would even acknowledge that it exists with some measure of good reason.

That said, rarely is there a Philopek comment on this thread that does not spend a fair amount of virtual ink extolling the intelligence, education, background, and general awesomeness of one Philopek himself.

I find much of this writing tedious and mildly offensive.  Upon careful parsing, which I am driven by my own personal demons to do, I find it relatively lacking in many of the above self proclaimed traits.

The glory that is Tesla is playing out in real time.  Its ultimate downfall and failure remains to be seen. 

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3624 on: September 20, 2019, 08:30:58 PM »
Quote
but with a company. And if a CEO always says the untruth, then that questions the company as a whole.
This alone is enough to tell you the value of Spiegel  opinion.
As to  philopek
He repeats FUD like "Tesla killers coming".
Is not aware that he is doing so despite his claims of a superior and highly  trained intellect .
A simple perusal of the specifications of all these so called Tesla killers tells you legacy industry can not as yet compete with Tesla's technology.

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3625 on: September 20, 2019, 08:34:19 PM »
cognitivebias 2


The internet bulges with ad-hominem responses to fact based posts. Perhaps any anonymous  platform will devolve until a snappy vicious retort counts for more than well researched articles.
Why attack a person's writing style, rather than the content of his post?


Were his points so unassailable, and was your need to respond so overpowering that the only option was an attack against him personally?


It's a damn shame, and tells us far more about you than about philopek.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3626 on: September 20, 2019, 09:03:56 PM »
Tesla’s Navigate on Autopilot wins Germany’s Connected Car Innovation Award
Quote
Tesla has won Germany’s prestigious Connected Car Innovation (CCI) award for 2019, with the electric car maker’s Navigate on Autopilot feature being dubbed as the best innovative automotive solution at this year’s carIT Congress at Frankfurt.

To win this year’s CCI award, Tesla’s Navigate on Autopilot had to outdo other advanced driver-assist capabilities from more experienced car manufacturers. According to carIT’s official website, other nominees for the CCI award this year included BMW’s back-up assistant, Lexus’ digital side-view monitors, Audi’s bottleneck assistant, and Mercedes-Benz’s AR-Navigation and Energizing Coach. Each feature was then evaluated by a jury of specialists.

The CCI award is granted based on the results of the Connected Car Innovation Study, an annual analysis that assesses the “performance and innovation strength” of carmakers in the field of vehicle connectivity and mobility services. The study also takes the market strength of OEMs into account, as well as each company’s relevant service innovations. These metrics make Tesla’s win particularly impressive, considering the company’s young age compared to its rivals.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-navigate-on-autopilot-wins-germany-cci-award-2019/

—-
The fledgling market for used EVs in China is all about Tesla — Quartz
Quote
It’s a win again.

China loves a used Tesla as much as it loves a brand-new one.

Five years after the market for new electric vehicles took off in China, a fledgling used-car market is forming around the close to 3.5 million EV cars already sold, and Tesla looks set to rule it.

A Tesla’s residual value—basically the future value of a car after a certain amount of use—at one year is more than 70% of its original price, far higher than the value of any Chinese EV model at the same mark, according to an August report from a Chinese automobile industry group studying leasing and resales.

“Except for a Tesla, we won’t take any other pure battery car,” a Beijing-based second-hand dealer told auto blog gasgoo in August.
https://qz.com/1710285/the-fledgling-market-for-used-evs-in-china-is-all-about-tesla/

——
Quote
Morten Grove (@mortenlund89)9/19/19, 4:01 PM
13:48 CEST - GLOVIS Courage arrived in Zeebrugge.
The 7th Q3 EU-ship with Teslas onboard.

https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1174775590139977728
< More than one Glovis has actually landed at the Port of Zeebrugge ;)
[Photo below.]
MG:  Glovis Sunlight?
<< More like Glovis Floodlight  ;D
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3627 on: September 20, 2019, 09:15:48 PM »
Quote
Don't forget that long position are kind of natural human behavior and often are based on hearsay and fanboyism and natural thinking patterns while short positions are mostly taken with good reason, based on skepticism and insight into economics. 
My direct experience is that the above is simply not true. I have seen both long and short positions taken with care and taken with hype. Many times it's luck more than anything else that decides the success or failure of the position.
I personally do not trust anyone talking his position (short or long), or worse taking active steps to affect the result. (Such as smearing the company to scare off potential buyers).
If an investor has a great investment idea, short or long, the best strategy is to take the position and keep quiet about it, hoping to increase the position when the price becomes better.

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3628 on: September 20, 2019, 09:41:24 PM »
My very small pension makes learned(?) discussions about shorts & longs more of a question about approaching winter and what to wear.

So I wait for data - real data, on
- European sales,
- powerwalls, big batteries and solar power sales.
- progress on starting EV production in China,
- when do we see the Y.

ps: How many foreign companies in China have had such practical support at the highest level to start up? The path has been smoothed for Tesla at every step of the way. The usual story is of delay, endless negotiation, and the lubrication of numerous petty and not so petty Government officials.

The US may be just a branch office of Tesla in 5 or 10 years, production mostly in China & perhaps Europe.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3629 on: September 20, 2019, 10:01:17 PM »
Quote
Don't forget that long position are kind of natural human behavior and often are based on hearsay and fanboyism and natural thinking patterns while short positions are mostly taken with good reason, based on skepticism and insight into economics.
My direct experience is that the above is simply not true. I have seen both long and short positions taken with care and taken with hype. Many times it's luck more than anything else that decides the success or failure of the position.
I personally do not trust anyone talking his position (short or long), or worse taking active steps to affect the result. (Such as smearing the company to scare off potential buyers).
If an investor has a great investment idea, short or long, the best strategy is to take the position and keep quiet about it, hoping to increase the position when the price becomes better.
I'm at least in partial agreement.
On many investment sites each author discloses what position he or she has WRT the subject at hand, allowing the readers to take this into account when evaluating the article.
For a number of years two of the funds I hold were invested in Tesla (long), both have since dropped their pro Tesla positions and to the best of my knowledge never went short.


When advertising copy is repeatedly posted as news it can be difficult not to assume that the poster is simply "talking up his book", but WRT Tesla, on this forum, I don't believe this to be the case.


Terry

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3630 on: September 21, 2019, 02:12:34 AM »
The glory that is Tesla is playing out in real time...

If they hit $1B in quarterly losses then I'll agree that it is glory. Personally, I don't think they will get there til 2020.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3631 on: September 21, 2019, 02:17:55 AM »
A friend of mine is a real genius and he has recently started ascending into gloriousness. Last weekend I got a photo of him in action (see below). The first half of this year he burnt approx $100M. Pretty impressive. But obviously not in the same tier as glory-king Musk since fElon burnt over $1B.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3632 on: September 21, 2019, 02:20:15 AM »
https://electrek.co/2019/09/20/tesla-model-s-prototype-breaks-down-porsche-taycan-tsla-short/

Pretty funny that the tesla broke down trying to set a fast lap time. I would blame it on the fact that Tesla modified the Model S, but in reality a Tesla breaking down is pretty much the standard.
big time oops

cognitivebias2

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3633 on: September 21, 2019, 02:56:04 AM »
https://electrek.co/2019/09/20/tesla-model-s-prototype-breaks-down-porsche-taycan-tsla-short/

Pretty funny that the tesla broke down trying to set a fast lap time. I would blame it on the fact that Tesla modified the Model S, but in reality a Tesla breaking down is pretty much the standard.

2nd paragraph:
"You know you’re doing pretty well when your detractors have to grasp at irrelevant events like these to justify their views."


Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3634 on: September 21, 2019, 03:28:06 AM »
Shorties got nothing.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3635 on: September 21, 2019, 06:56:31 AM »
https://electrek.co/2019/09/20/tesla-model-s-prototype-breaks-down-porsche-taycan-tsla-short/

Pretty funny that the tesla broke down trying to set a fast lap time. I would blame it on the fact that Tesla modified the Model S, but in reality a Tesla breaking down is pretty much the standard.

2nd paragraph:
"You know you’re doing pretty well when your detractors have to grasp at irrelevant events like these to justify their views."

Tesla breaks down while trying to go fast on a track. Irrelevant.

Tesla bleeds cash. Irrelevant.

Tesla launches products that never materialize. Irrelevant.

Tesla bails out failing company for pure nepotism. Irrelevant.

Tesla structurally insolvent. Irrelevant.


Is the ONLY thing that you think matters is # of cars sold and how fast they are? How incredibly stupid.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3636 on: September 21, 2019, 07:16:11 AM »
Shorties got nothing.

You must be dyslexic. No worries, I am too. Legit.

Anyways, the share price is $240, not $420.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3637 on: September 21, 2019, 07:21:04 AM »
I hope it was a solar powered crane. And I hope the pall (noun: cloth spread over dead thing) was not made of some sorta fossil fuel derivative. Maybe it is a hemp, wool, and cotton blend. Or at least the nylon/polyester is made from a plant based polyethylene.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3638 on: September 21, 2019, 07:24:42 AM »
I think nothing sums up the Bulltards hype vs reality as well as the following:

(courtesy of twitters's Bubble Boy)
big time oops

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3639 on: September 21, 2019, 07:46:24 AM »
Quote
If they hit $1B in quarterly losses
Tesla make a profit on every car sold.
They actually make a larger margin than most other manufactures do on making cars. 
Tesla  are investing in expending their product range and manufacturing capacity to meet demand.
If you think it is a "loss" to invest in expansion when you are a car manufacturer who is the  clear leader in the fasted growing automobile market  sector  you are an idiot......


oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3640 on: September 21, 2019, 08:24:30 AM »
In general, feeding trolls is not a useful pastime. Neither is tracking every piece of short-term news coming out.

OTOH, Tesla's upcoming quarterly results will be very interesting, as usual. What is the flow of orders? How many cars were produced and delivered? Are losses shrinking or getting worse? Might there even be a profit? Deliveries will be announced in a couple of weeks, results in about 6 weeks.
I used to have (bad) guesses to some of these questions, but now I dare not even make predictions. Visibility is too low. I will say this - if quarterly sales shrink and losses increase, this will be a very bad sign and a sure predictor of failure. If sales increase QoQ and losses shrink to $100M-$200M, a good sign that might hint at possible success. If sales jump and losses become profits, a very good sign, but I doubt it will happen.
The big questions - will Tesla survive until GF3 starts paying off (answer is yes). How high will the internal demand be in China (to be found in 2020)? Will Tesla survive until Model Y starts shipping in mass (to be found by end of 2020)? Will Y be a strong seller and moneymaker? (2021, I actually think yes). Will the Semi ever ship in bulk (end of 2020? 2021?). Will the unveiled Pickup be a hit? (2020, but I think not). Will Model S ever become a hit again? (2021? but I think not).

Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3641 on: September 21, 2019, 10:49:04 AM »
Today, Climate Strike. A quarter of a million people in New York City alone.
3 Million in Europe and Asia, and a similar amount in the Americas, took to the street.

All inspired by Greta Thunberg

Elon re-tweeted this from Scientific American :

https://twitter.com/sciam/status/1175179567776043009

Quote
“We are a wave of change. Together and united, we are unstoppable. This is what people power looks like. We will rise to the challenge," said 16-year-old climate activist @GretaThunberg who led global protests today demanding action on climate change. #ClimateStrike

Does anyone here disagree with that ?

If so, you may like the response Elon got, and not what he said in return :
« Last Edit: September 21, 2019, 10:57:40 AM by Rob Dekker »
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3642 on: September 21, 2019, 02:21:24 PM »
Background on Mark Spiegel, the Tesla bear quoted above.  You decide.

The Washington Post, from last fall:
“His $8 million, seven-year-old hedge fund is down about 15 percent so far this year, mostly because of the bet against Tesla.”

Short sellers are struggling. Their massive bet against Elon Musk isn’t helping.
“It’s carnage.” Why the business of betting on gloom has gone downhill.
Quote
NEW YORK — Mark Spiegel begins some mornings contemplating Tesla’s fate from the bathroom of his high-rise apartment, where two computer screens are perched near the bathtub for instant updates on his Twitter feed and stock prices.

The hedge fund manager spends much of his day at his dining room table, where he fires off tweets explaining his high-stakes bet that Tesla, a darling of Silicon Valley and a $60 billion behemoth, will eventually fail, sending its stock price tumbling.

So far, the bet has been mostly a loser, but Spiegel isn’t ready to relent. “I just don’t want it to kill me in the short term,” he says as his eyes toggle between computer screens and a Pomeranian pleading for attention around his ankles.

Spiegel’s small hedge fund, Stanphyl Capital, is part of one of Wall Street’s most aggressive bets against a single company in history. The $10 billion wager has set up a marathon battle between one of Silicon Valley’s most outspoken leaders, Tesla chief executive Elon Musk, and some of Wall Street’s most notorious doomsayers. ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/business/2018/11/20/short-sellers-are-struggling-their-massive-bet-against-elon-musk-isnt-helping/


5 Years Of Incorrect Claims & Forecasts About Tesla From TSLA Bear Mark Spiegel
Quote
There have been a handful of particularly loud Tesla bears or critics over the past several years. One of those people, [Andrew Left of Citron Research, recently made a U-turn in his position on Tesla (citing 4 CleanTechnica charts of Tesla sales along the way).

Another one is Jim Chanos, who we’ll probably address again before long, and another is Mark Spiegel. Like Chanos, Spiegel gets put on major TV shows rather frequently for his “expertise” on Tesla and is routinely quoted in major financial news outlets. But if you look at Spiegel’s historical record on Tesla, it’s really bad — really, really bad. ...

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/04/5-years-of-incorrect-claims-forecasts-about-tesla-from-tsla-bear-mark-spiegel/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3643 on: September 21, 2019, 04:04:29 PM »
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk dubbed ‘most inspiring’ leader in tech
September 21, 2019
Quote
A recent survey involving over 3,600 workers in the tech sector has revealed that SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk is the “most inspiring” leader in the industry for 2019. Following Musk were other tech titans from some of the world’s largest companies, including Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, and Alibaba’s Jack Ma.

The survey was conducted by job search marketplace Hired, which describes itself as a company that matches the world’s most innovative talents with the most innovative companies in the market. For its 2019 Global Brand Health Report, the company asked its respondents to rank the tech leaders they consider the most inspiring. Musk came out on top.

There are several reasons why the SpaceX and Tesla CEO was considered the most inspiring among the study’s respondents. Among these is the fact that Musk is unafraid to think big. With each of his projects, whether that be SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, and even side projects such as The Boring Company, Musk’s endgame is never small scale or short-sighted.

There was once a time, after all, when the idea of private spaceflight was considered farfetched, or the idea of an all-electric car beating a Porsche’s time around the Nurburgring was considered implausible; yet with Musk’s determination, these things are now a reality. Musk does have a tendency to perennially miss his deadlines due to his optimism, but he delivers, albeit late.

Another plausible reason behind Musk’s inspiring qualities is his lack of hesitation to place himself in the front lines. During the early days of SpaceX, Musk bet it all on the Falcon 1’s success, and it allowed the startup space firm to reach orbit practically by the skin of its teeth. Musk also took Tesla’s reins during the financial crisis to help it navigate an unforgiving period that even auto juggernaut GM was not able to survive. ... 
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-spacex-elon-musk-most-inspiring-leader/
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3644 on: September 21, 2019, 07:32:14 PM »
Sig
I'm sure you had not noticed, but the articles pointing out how badly the shorts were doing were from Last Year.
A more up to date article would show a very different conclusion.
Shorting Tesla apparently is a long term investment.
Terry

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3645 on: September 21, 2019, 07:39:58 PM »
Quote
If they hit $1B in quarterly losses
Tesla make a profit on every car sold.
They actually make a larger margin than most other manufactures do on making cars. 
Tesla  are investing in expending their product range and manufacturing capacity to meet demand.
If you think it is a "loss" to invest in expansion when you are a car manufacturer who is the  clear leader in the fasted growing automobile market  sector  you are an idiot......

That is a nice idea but the numbers dont back it up, AT ALL. Their capex and R&D are small and have been shrinking.


And the idea that they don't have the capacity to meet demand is nonsense. They clearly have surplus inventory. The whole "we only build for orders" story is dead. And they keep dropping prices to find more demand.

And sales continue to decline from H2 2018. I mean honestly, what do you expect Q3 deliveries to be. I think 90k is optimistic. And the only way they are keeping numbers fairly flat is by continually reducing prices.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3646 on: September 21, 2019, 08:26:21 PM »
Background on Mark Spiegel, the Tesla bear quoted above.  You decide.

The Washington Post, from last fall:
“His $8 million, seven-year-old hedge fund is down about 15 percent so far this year, mostly because of the bet against Tesla.”

CONSTANT NON STOP TOTAL NONSENSE from the bulls. Yall probably couldn't count to 10 correctly or hit the broad sit of a barn,

The quote from the wash poo poo was when TSLA was at $340. Now SP is $240. Get a clue.

big time oops

cognitivebias2

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3647 on: September 21, 2019, 09:22:33 PM »
If you opened a short position between 2Q17 and 1Q19 you have some healthly profits.  Longer term support, since roughly 2014, has held over 200. 

"In his third July 2013 article on Seeking Alpha, Spiegel claimed that the best-case scenario for Tesla’s stock price 5 years from then (which meant in 2018) was $98."  From:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/04/5-years-of-incorrect-claims-forecasts-about-tesla-from-tsla-bear-mark-spiegel/


Over time there is room to be both right and wrong.  If yours was the money shorting TSLA in 2013 you probably wish it was long the S&P 500 instead.

What will happen next?  I wish I knew,  but if you are short TSLA at 240 that looks like a risky bet to me.    You should have covered in June when you had the chance.

CapEx dropping is not a concern if the necessary investments have been made.  R&D does not seem to be dropping, although I do not have 2019 numbers.  Thru 2018 R&D looks strong. $1.46B in 2018 R&D alone.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/314863/research-and-development-expenses-of-tesla/


It will be exciting to watch.  Maybe better without the short side histrionics.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3648 on: September 22, 2019, 02:48:33 AM »
 ;D :P

2021 Porsche 911 GT3 Prototype Breaks Down on Nurburgring
Quote
The prototype was approaching the Hatzenbach section of the infamous German track when an issue determined the engineer behind the wheel to pull over on the grass. And while the vehicle didn't show any signs of damage, the test car wasn't able to leave the circuit under its own power. Oh, and yes, that happens to be a Mid-Engined Corvette passing by.
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/2021-porsche-911-gt3-prototype-breaks-down-on-nurburgring-spied-up-close-135717.html

======
Edit: a surprisingly well-written article from Jalopnik:

Here's What Happened With Tesla's Ambitious First Attempt At The Nürburgring
Quote
Tesla’s ability to get this effort flying straight out of the box, thousands of miles away from its home base and on very short notice, is nothing short of phenomenal. And the team’s efforts should be applauded. They have clearly hired a very smart, motivated group of engineers that are at the top of their game, and despite my earlier skepticism and that breakdown, I’m happy to eat a little humble pie over what I’ve seen so far. ...
https://jalopnik.com/heres-what-happened-with-teslas-ambitious-first-attempt-1838221405/
« Last Edit: September 22, 2019, 03:33:56 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3649 on: September 22, 2019, 01:58:40 PM »
Honda Accord & Toyota Camry Buyers — What The Heck Are You Doing?
Quote
Honda and Toyota cars have been smart, logical choices for American car buyers for decades. Once upon a time, Honda and Toyota were the new kids on the block and had to prove themselves with strong “performance for the money” or “value for the money” propositions. They did so, repeatedly, and they grew their market share gradually as a result. The Japanese car companies are benefiting from that history today.

Honda Accord, Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, and Toyota Corolla models, in particular, have long been known for their competitive mixture of quality, fuel economy, and “middle class pricing.” Like the look of a Honda more? Get the Accord or Civic. Like the brand and design of a Toyota more? Get a Camry or Corolla.

Nowadays, while many buyers see these automakers and models in the same way as they did a decade or three ago, a growing number of others see Toyota and Honda as far behind the times, well behind the curve on the core automobile tech transition of this decade and even this century.

In actuality, there are not that many cases today where buying an Accord or Camry is an objectively logical choice over buying a Model 3. There are certainly not 50,000+ such cases each month. If you want greater safety for the money, a Model 3 makes more sense. If you want greater performance for the money, a Model 3 makes more sense. If you want more advanced tech for the money, a Model 3 makes more sense. If you want better infotainment for the money, a Model 3 makes more sense.

For many new car buyers, Tesla driving range is well beyond what they need. If they can charge at home, or even at work, they benefit from much more convenience and time savings compared to life with a  gasoline car. Time spent personally refueling or recharging on a road trip is similar except in extreme edge cases. In net, a Tesla Model 3 ownership probably provides more convenience and some degree of time savings each year compared to Accord or Camry ownership.

When you have a car that beats a BMW on performance, beats a Volvo on safety, and competes with a Camry or Accord (or even Corolla or Civic) on cost of ownership, the choice should be clear.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/22/honda-accord-toyota-camry-buyers-what-the-heck-are-you-doing/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.