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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3850 on: October 06, 2019, 03:47:33 PM »
Tesla is changing the world, one EV at a time.

Let's run the numbers, shall we ? :

As of Q2 2019, there were some 611,000 Teslas delivered :
https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/
with the 97,000 Q3 2019 numbers that makes 708,000 vehicles on the road today.

Let's look at carbon emissions saved for that fleet :

US Department of Energy numbers :
https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html
show that if you charge an EV from the US average grid electricity, you emit about 1/3rd the CO2 of a gasoline vehicle. And if you charge from the California grid, that reduces to 1/5th the CO2 emissions. And each of these numbers get better as we add more and more renewables to the grid.

Average fuel economy of a US car is about 24 miles/gallon. For average 12,000 miles/year that is 500 gallons/year/car. Driving a Tesla, on average US electric grid, thus saves about 2/3 or 333 gallons/year/car compared to a ICE vehicle.

For the 708,000 Teslas on the road, that means saving 236,000,000/365/42 = 15,395 barrels/day in gasoline saved.

Now in the bigger picture (100 million Bpd global oil consumption), 15,395 barrels/day is not much yet.

But it's a start. And it will be growing as electric cars become more widespread and electricity portfolios become more renewable.

Can you name ANY other company that saved that much in fossil fuels ?

And if you want to get personal, it seems to me that Elon's own carbon footprint had a very good ROI.

You are assuming that every Tesla owner is such a twit that they would drive a ICE car 100% as much as they would an EV even though these Tesla owners theoretically care about their emission.

Instilling an ethos of "no need to sacrifice, going green can be sexy and shiny and faster!" is the worst thing I can imagine for the "environmental movement".

Musk flew 150,000 miles last year. On a private jet. Mostly short hops which are extra fuel guzzling. It epitomizes the extend to which the "tesla movement" is not actually about reducing emissions but instead virtue signalling and status seeking.

I mean Musk is planning for SpaceX to make earth to earth "hops" on a spaceship. That is probably the least fuel efficient transportation ever thought up. If you think that guy is about reducing emission, you are a fool.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3851 on: October 06, 2019, 07:36:00 PM »
Earth-to-earth hops using fuel sustainably sourced from atmospheric carbon dioxide and that generates no soot when burned could well involve less emissions than hours-long flights of a plane burning kerosene jet fuel.

P.S.: Starship uses Tesla batteries.

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-tesla-battery-packs-spotted/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3852 on: October 06, 2019, 08:08:40 PM »
Tesla now gets European vehicles as trade-ins 22.2% of the time—more than double the industry average of 10.9%. Because of this uptick, the market is becoming flooded with more affordable cars from Mercedes, Audi, BMW and the like—without a corresponding increase in demand.
We’re calling this The Tesla Effect. It’s strong enough to cause prices to plummet, because the market has an excess supply of used luxury cars

The Tesla Effect: How Tesla Is Changing the Used Car Game
Quote
Tesla’s sales successes are wreaking havoc on the pre-owned luxury car market

Automotive luxury, as it exists today, is rapidly becoming the escape of driving in and of itself. The decisions car-buyers make are increasingly on the side of technology—or more specifically, Tesla’s version of it—than the traditional luxury cars that have long been industry benchmarks. What does that mean? Tesla’s sales successes are wreaking havoc on the pre-owned luxury car market. Once-strong demand for European luxury brands like Mercedes, Audi, and BMW is evaporating as buyers that used to spring for premium luxury sedans now want a Tesla. Any Tesla.

In particular, Tesla’s Model 3 went from zero to over 140,000 units faster than any other luxury vehicle had before, and the demand for new Teslas is, in a very real sense, driving the used car market. With buyer after buyer trading in a still new-ish luxury vehicle for a brand-new Tesla, traditional luxury brands appear to be traded-in more frequently than all American and Korean manufacturers combined. ...
https://www.capitalone.com/cars/learn/finding-the-right-car/the-tesla-effect-how-tesla-is-changing-the-used-car-game/1096

—-
Tesla quietly acquires battery production expert in push to make its own cells
Tesla has quietly acquired a battery manufacturing and engineering company based in Canada called ‘Hibar Systems’ in a push to start making its own battery cells.
https://electrek.co/2019/10/05/tesla-quietly-acquires-battery-manufacturer/

—-
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost  (@tesla_truth) 10/4/19, 5:54 PM
Don’t believe there’s long term demand for Tesla?
Go talk to a 10 year old.
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1180239822515916801
< I drop my kid off at school and EVERY day the 10 year olds helping the young kids walk in say “whoa... it’s a Tesla, I love Tesla’s”. Every day.
< Ask an 88 year old too. I showed my Model X to my 88 year old uncle this past weekend and now he's getting one.
< Kids at my daughter’s elementary school cheer when they see my dirty ass model 3 every morning in the drop off lane. ...
< I was pulling my Model 3 out of the car wash the other day. A little boy about six years old was tapping his dads arm and telling him “Look! It’s a Tesla!” ❤️
< There’s a group of 10ish boys in my neighborhood that wave & yell “Tesla! We love your car!” every time I drive past them
< Every time I park close to kids. EVERY time. They go “Wow. Look! A tesla!”

—-
I invest in Tesla because I believe in Elon Musk, and what he and Tesla are doing for our world.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/05/i-invest-in-tesla-because-i-believe-in-elon-musk/
« Last Edit: October 06, 2019, 08:15:12 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3853 on: October 07, 2019, 12:59:09 AM »
Cleantechnica re the above Capital One article:  we told you so!

Capital One: Value of Luxury Gas Cars Getting Slammed by Tesla Model 3
Quote
... The night the Tesla Model 3 was first shown to the public... I was picturing elite auto giants in the board room of BMW and Audi sobbing. This was a disruptor, a truly disruptive product that would transform the auto industry, starting with the luxury car market.

A couple of weeks later, at our first Cleantech Revolution Tour conference, in Berlin, we discussed a matter that seemed absolutely imminent: a crash in luxury gas and diesel car resale values. The ramifications of a disruptive new electric luxury car that genuinely embarrasses the Audi A4, Mercedes C-Class, and BMW 3 Series are manifold, but perhaps one of the biggest is that strong depreciation of these previous industry leaders could be disastrous for their parent companies and further accelerate the switch to electric transport.

Notably, a crash in resale values means leasing companies have to increase what they charge customers — otherwise, they’ll lose money on the cars over time. Raising leasing prices means that those vehicles become less competitive, which means fewer people leasing.

An employee of one of the largest auto leasing companies in Europe told me a couple years ago that the CEO of the company had already committed to a quick transition to 100% electric vehicles as a result. It would simply be bad business management to walk into a collapsing market and financial crisis. All he had to do was look the superiority of the Tesla Model 3 and reflect on where the market was headed.

Normal new car buyers may be slower to pick up on the market trends. If they didn’t put down money for a Model 3 reservation or at least jump into the crowd once production ramped up, there’s a good chance they’re simply out of touch. So, it should come as a surprise when they bring their 2018, 2019, and 2020 BMW 320i, Audi A4, or Mercedes C300 “luxury automobiles” to auto dealers or the private used car market and find they lost far more value than the consumers anticipated. Nonetheless, that is what’s going to happen, and that is what’s starting to happen.

No, this is no longer just CleanTechnica saying so. It is not simply Teslarati and Teslamondo saying so. It is Capital One saying so. As the non-analyst tweeting above highlights, Capital One now says that the Tesla Model 3 is “wreaking havoc” on the used luxury car market — that is, the used luxury gas and diesel car market. To Tesla owners, the most confusing part of that some people still consider those cars luxury cars. They have horrible, non-luxury drive quality compared to a Model 3. They have horrible, non-luxury tech compared to a Model 3. The don’t meet the safety level or performance of a Model 3. The interiors or cluttered with old technology, knobs, buttons, and an antiquated interior design. Perhaps we’re Tesla fanboys and fangirls, but there are many reasons for that, and the fan population is growing fast.

Nonetheless, it’s both surprising and exciting that such a mainstream, establishment company like Capital One is publishing the news. It does not mince words. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/06/just-as-expected-luxury-gas-car-depreciation-getting-slammed-by-tesla-model-3/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3854 on: October 07, 2019, 01:51:33 PM »
Quote
Tesla_saves_lives (@SavedTesla) 10/6/19, 1:18 PM
On March 15,2019 @elonmusk revealed what Shanghai Gigafactory will look like "at the end of the year". Look at what it looks like on October 4th, 2019. Still worried about Elon's timing to deliver ?
https://twitter.com/savedtesla/status/1180895117395320832
First image below.

(Oct 04 2019)Tesla Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai Construction Update 4K 上海特斯拉超级工厂3 建造进度更新
- Giga 3 Phase 2 going up fast!
= I’m guessing that the bigger, angled truck entry doors are for quick trailer-truck access, for fast-loading of cars leaving the factory, whereas the 70+ perpendicular loading-door spaces are for parking of box trailers loaded with supplies coming into the factory, which will sit there until they are emptied.  (The GA “tent” line in Fremont used box trailers that way, and Musk liked its efficiency.)  This would be one step closer to Musk’s vision of ‘bringing in raw materials at one end of the factory and rolling out cars at the other end.’  ;)

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3855 on: October 07, 2019, 01:59:29 PM »
Trust Elon to take a dreaded regulation: required pedestrian warning sound at low speeds… and make it into a fun feature that causes jealousy in owners of older cars that don’t have it. :) 
I am a bit puzzled in that the regs I’ve seen have specified a single noise for all cars of the same model (although they would consider more) — no doubt Tesla has been working with NHTSA to loosen them up a bit and make the reg more palatable.

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)10/6/19, 12:06 PM
Customized horn & movement sounds (coconuts being one, of course) coming to Teslas soon
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1180877114226008064

Elon Musk (@elonmusk)10/6/19, 12:12 PM
[fart] & [goat] sounds too (also, of course)
< May we can just upload our own sounds clips?
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/6/19, 12:09 PM
Will consider
< Goose honk?
< What about an Easter egg that gets activated if you name your car Darth Vader & plays Imperial March if you use Smart Summon!?

< Can we have jungle and rainforest sounds
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/6/19, 12:08 PM
Sure
< And suddenly I’m so jelly of everyone who has the newer car with pedestrian warning.

The “coconuts” sound builds on the Monty Python theme...
Tesla owner finds Monty Python Easter egg in V10 software update
https://electrek.co/2019/10/06/tesla-monty-python-easter-egg-v10-software-update/


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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3856 on: October 07, 2019, 02:46:03 PM »
Quote
Instilling an ethos of "no need to sacrifice, going green can be sexy and shiny and faster!" is the worst thing I can imagine for the "environmental movement".

I'll give you irrefutable proof that you are wrong.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3857 on: October 07, 2019, 03:03:31 PM »
Quote
Tesla_saves_lives (@SavedTesla) 10/6/19, 1:18 PM
On March 15,2019 @elonmusk revealed what Shanghai Gigafactory will look like "at the end of the year". Look at what it looks like on October 4th, 2019. Still worried about Elon's timing to deliver ?
https://twitter.com/savedtesla/status/1180895117395320832
First image below.

(Oct 04 2019)Tesla Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai Construction Update 4K 上海特斯拉超级工厂3 建造进度更新
- Giga 3 Phase 2 going up fast!
= I’m guessing that the bigger, angled truck entry doors are for quick trailer-truck access, for fast-loading of cars leaving the factory, whereas the 70+ perpendicular loading-door spaces are for parking of box trailers loaded with supplies coming into the factory, which will sit there until they are emptied.  (The GA “tent” line in Fremont used box trailers that way, and Musk liked its efficiency.)  This would be one step closer to Musk’s vision of ‘bringing in raw materials at one end of the factory and rolling out cars at the other end.’  ;)

<snipped>

Is Elon again eschewing rail transportation?
In China it seems particularly short sighted.


Terry

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3858 on: October 07, 2019, 04:01:37 PM »
Looks like the first M3 to roll of the production line has been spotted on the test track.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-made-in-china-gigafactory-3-test-track-sighting/

Things continue to move.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3859 on: October 07, 2019, 06:06:06 PM »
On the Q3 results, regardless of how well they do, or don't do, unless they post a profit close to Q3 2018, then this is the graph the bears will be focusing on.




With Tesla making rollercoaster profits, this is bound to happen for a while.  Even if they break even or make a modest profit, that dot on the bottom is going to stay close to there.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3860 on: October 07, 2019, 08:33:57 PM »
Quote
Tesla_saves_lives (@SavedTesla) 10/6/19, 1:18 PM
On March 15,2019 @elonmusk revealed what Shanghai Gigafactory will look like "at the end of the year". Look at what it looks like on October 4th, 2019. Still worried about Elon's timing to deliver ?
https://twitter.com/savedtesla/status/1180895117395320832
First image below.

(Oct 04 2019)Tesla Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai Construction Update 4K 上海特斯拉超级工厂3 建造进度更新
- Giga 3 Phase 2 going up fast!
= I’m guessing that the bigger, angled truck entry doors are for quick trailer-truck access, for fast-loading of cars leaving the factory, whereas the 70+ perpendicular loading-door spaces are for parking of box trailers loaded with supplies coming into the factory, which will sit there until they are emptied.  (The GA “tent” line in Fremont used box trailers that way, and Musk liked its efficiency.)  This would be one step closer to Musk’s vision of ‘bringing in raw materials at one end of the factory and rolling out cars at the other end.’  ;)

<snipped>

Is Elon again eschewing rail transportation?
In China it seems particularly short sighted.


Terry

• So you think I’m right about the truck access?
• I haven’t seen anything one way or the other about rail from Giga3.
• What makes you think Tesla is not using rail in China?  Their “muddy field” does not have a rail connection. Today.  Unknown if rail can or will be a part of the planned Lingang industrial complex.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3861 on: October 07, 2019, 09:35:02 PM »
As Capital One noted above, people are trading in their luxury cars for a Tesla.  On the lower end of the price scale, they are trading in their Prius.

As The Tesla Model 3 Surges, Something’s Gotta Give (Like The Toyota Prius)
Quote
You could say my Los Angeles neighborhood is a microcosm of the Netherlands.
The Model 3 is the most popular new car. So popular, it’s crowding out other cars. Something’s gotta give.

Maybe that something is the Prius. As of October 2019, there are now more Model 3s in my immediate neighborhood than Toyota Priuses. That’s a milestone, considering the enduring popularity and affordability of the erstwhile default car buy of the eco-conscious.  As I wrote before, my neighbors are snapping up Model 3s (four immediate neighbors). And in the larger community there’s a veritable plague of new Model 3s.

It’s amazing to me that the Model 3 has become this popular this fast considering its price. After all, the Model 3 isn’t a $25,000 Prius.

The demise of the Prius as the darling of the green car movement
Prius sales have been falling off pretty steeply since 2013. Going from a peak of 236,655 sold in the U.S. in 2012 to 87,591 in 2018. (See the decline of Prius sales in this chart via InsideEVs.)
Coincidentally, Tesla has already sold more Model 3s in the U.S. as of the end of August (roughly 94,000) than total Prius sales in 2018.

I don’t know for a fact that my neighbors are trading in a Prius for the Model 3. I just know that I’m seeing more and more Model 3s every month (the California temporary license plate is a giveaway) and not any new Prius. ...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2019/10/06/as-the-tesla-model-3-surges-somethings-gotta-give-like-the-toyota-prius/

——
Tesla noted this in 2018:
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-cars-trade-in-honda-bmw-prius-leaf-2018-8
Tesla revealed the five cars most commonly traded in for the Model 3. They include the Honda Accord, Honda Civic, Nissan Leaf, Toyota Prius, and the BMW 3 Series.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3862 on: October 08, 2019, 12:09:56 AM »
Sig
You could well be right about the "angled doors", but it was the "70 + perpendicular loading door spaces" that leads me to believe that there are no plans for rail.


Our local Toyota factory, which has for the 4th time won the "Best Automotive Assembly Facility in the World" Award from J D Powers, ;D uses rail to both bring in the parts required, and to ship the vehicles they produce. It's a large facility capable of producing 600K vehicles/an, yet this has little effect on local traffic. A level crossing caused problems for a few years, but the road was elevated and their heavy reliance on rail is no longer a concern.


GF1 was originally sited in part because of easy rail access, and according to Wiki the battery packs produced were to be shipped to the Fremont plant by rail. Elon's decision to rip up his existing rail sidings brought those plans to an end.


Some of Tesla's subsequent bottlenecks can be attributed directly to that decision. Remember back when he was going to need to build his own car carriers, or the two, possibly three truckloads of Teslas that burned up on I-80 this year? Rail delivery would have solved these before they became problems. Some of Tesla's deepest wounds are self inflicted.


GF3 appears to be designed to accommodate lots of trucks even though China is widely praised for her rail system. When the factory begins production we'll see whether Musk is going to take advantage of rail in this location.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3863 on: October 08, 2019, 02:46:04 AM »
US Plug-In EV Sales Dec 2010 - September 2019

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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3864 on: October 08, 2019, 10:12:52 AM »
As The Tesla Model 3 Surges, Something’s Gotta Give (Like The Toyota Prius)

Sig, it has been pretty clear for the whole of this year and reported several times, that BEV is growing faster than 100% and in some cases faster than 200%, whilst hybrid is dropping like a stone.

Obviously the Prius is going to take a hit.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3865 on: October 08, 2019, 03:36:11 PM »
Earth-to-earth hops using fuel sustainably sourced from atmospheric carbon dioxide and that generates no soot when burned could well involve less emissions than hours-long flights of a plane burning kerosene jet fuel.

P.S.: Starship uses Tesla batteries.

DING DING DING

We Have A Winner For Tesla Bull Comment of the Decade!



"Because everything Musk does is magic will one day be magic, SpaceX rockets will take off om unicorn kicks and the rocket will refuel from Pegasus' farts. Hooray.

Rocket travel to any point on earth will take 30 minutes, and use no fuel. Thus it will be green and cheap. Green rocket travel for the peasants!"
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3866 on: October 08, 2019, 03:38:33 PM »
With Tesla making rollercoaster profits...

"Stop losing money son!"

"I'm not losing money dad, I'm making rollercoaster profits."
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3867 on: October 08, 2019, 04:51:11 PM »
As The Tesla Model 3 Surges, Something’s Gotta Give (Like The Toyota Prius)

Sig, it has been pretty clear for the whole of this year and reported several times, that BEV is growing faster than 100% and in some cases faster than 200%, whilst hybrid is dropping like a stone.

Obviously the Prius is going to take a hit.

I didn’t say this was Breaking News.  ;)

But Tesla has definitely surplanted the Prius as the green car of choice in the U.S.  The article is more of a psychological study than a sales chart.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3868 on: October 08, 2019, 04:54:04 PM »
Porsche will have 1000km vehicle in 10 years while Tesla Roadster is to be released next year with the same range.
Porsche CEO gives credit to Elon Musk, predicts 1000-km electric car in 10 years
https://www.teslarati.com/porsche-taycan-tesla-elon-musk-1k-km-ev-10-years/

——-
Norway.  EVs pulling identical trailers — and they switched drivers around, too.
Tesla Model X beats Mercedes-Benz EQC and Audi e-tron in camper trailer towing test
https://electrek.co/2019/10/08/tesla-model-x-mercedes-benz-eqc-audi-e-tron-camper-trailer-towing-test/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3869 on: October 08, 2019, 04:59:38 PM »
We Have A Winner For Tesla Bull Comment of the Decade![/b]

Actually you don't.  You need to read this op ed on Seekingalpha which talks about the potential path to FSD for Tesla and the implications of it in terms of ToboTaxi.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4295418-tesla-autonomy-possibility-fast-progress

It is a very well researched and written article by someone who actually knows what they are talking about.

There are some key points that people need to grab hold of and understand.

1. Dataset size
2. The speed of computer learning as opposed to the speed of building the learning engine
3. The hardware in the vehicles required to manage all of this.


So what does the article say about these things.

Dataset size.

Quote
Tesla has approximately 600,000 vehicles with “full self-driving hardware”. These vehicles drive something in the ballpark of 20 million miles per day. A competitor like Waymo with roughly 0.1% as many vehicles can’t create a dataset of the same size.

and

Quote
Since Tesla is pulling from approximately 20 million miles of driving per day, it can rapidly build up very large datasets of different driving behaviours and collect new demonstrations to correct neural network errors. For a competitor like Waymo which might take two years to drive 20 million miles, this approach at this scale just isn’t possible.

The speed of the differing activities which will lead to a computer driven "product" which can replace humans for the same job (in this case playing computer games)

Quote
DeepMind spent about three years in research and development on StarCraft and then used imitation learning to train its agent to human-level performance in three days.

Playing a computer game requires incredible levels of interaction and skill/off the wall knowledge.

Three days, hold that thought.

Then we have the hardware in the vehicle.  Now there is a point here which is not mentioned in the article because the author wants to make specific points.  But I, from my own experience, am going to make another point.

Nvidia hardware was an evolutionary development in order to keep incrementally making car driving easier.  But it was, in no way, fast enough or viable enough to take the leap from assisting to actually driving.

The Tesla hardware was a Revolutionary step which skipped several levels (years/decades), of evolution to get to the ability to actually drive in one single hop. Whilst using a fraction of the power of current systems (critical for EV's).

So

Quote
1.Deploy a new computer vision neural network that uses the new hardware’s 21x increase in video processing capability. We know Karpathy’s team is working on such a network, but we don’t know when it will be deployed.

Because to get quality data you need the compute power to decide when to get it.

So where does it lead the author?

Quote
The central idea here is: if Tesla’s approach is right, and if most of the manual work has already been done, then the steps to implementing it can be executed quickly, some of them at computer speed. Training the imitation learning networks, for instance, might take only a matter of days.

So why do I call the author the biggest bull?

On Investment opportunities, the author says

Quote
From an investment perspective, this creates an unusual and possibly unique (at least for a large-cap company) situation where the valuation logic for Tesla depends on a somewhat unknowable scientific/engineering factor that could rapidly change, causing the company’s rational valuation to jump 10x or more.

But finishes with

Quote
However, the underlying uncertainty is the feasibility of the technology: in particular, the near-to-medium-term potential for deep learning to match human competence in vision, behaviour prediction, and driving behaviour. While I can’t resolve that uncertainty, I will make two claims. First, if deep learning can master these problems in the near-to-medium term, Tesla will be the one to prove it. Second, if Tesla solves full autonomy, there is a realistic possibility that, from the outside, progress will appear blazingly fast, catching many people by surprise. We should think about technical progress on this problem as a combination of subproblems solved at human coding speed or human R&D speed and subproblems solved at data uploading speed or neural network training speed. A neural network that takes years to develop might take only a few days to train. If we expect progress to be steady, smooth, and incremental, then, from the outside, we might miss this process. We don't want to miss it!

Read it all.  It is worth reading.  It is worth reflecting on.  Especially the robotaxi implications.

Also, you might want to consider the entire article in the light of the decision to deliver A/S before more advanced on road A/P.

In terms of A/P, the amount of miles is key, as it takes so many miles to generate so many anomalies and situations.  Advanced Summon only needs "journeys" to create data.  By putting the vehicle in the most demanding environment it is possible to think of, every single journey elicits extremely valid data.  Half a million A/S journeys are worth hundreds of millions of miles in training data.  The data contains pedestrian hazards, vehicle hazards, loose shopping cart hazards, high volumes of children out of control, vehicles in the most demanding visibility, backing out of spaces where they may not see other vehicles.

I expect extremely rapid development of A/S and FSD as a result of this single delivery of a feature.

Add to this the Agile delivery of the software (where you test, fail, fix and test again in a continuous loop) and you have the potential for Tesla to overtake all competitors in 6 months.

Advanced Summon, alone, will leapfrog the entire database of knowledge of all competitors, combined, in half a year.  The learning software will consume it in hours.  So long as owners continue to use it.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3870 on: October 08, 2019, 05:03:20 PM »
I didn’t say this was Breaking News.  ;)

But Tesla has definitely surplanted the Prius as the green car of choice in the U.S.  The article is more of a psychological study than a sales chart.

True but I wanted to make the point.  It is not clarified enough.  Many articles talk about the demand for "renewable" vehicles dropping drastically due to the reduction in subsidies.

However that is not true.  Or, perhaps, a misrepresentation of the situation.

BEV is killing ALL fossil fuelled vehicles but it is killing the hybrids faster. Demand for BEV is not shrinking, it is growing dramatically.  The problem is supply constraint, not a lack of demand.

Hence the point about Tesla killing off the Prius.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3871 on: October 09, 2019, 09:52:54 AM »
Quote
Driving a mile in a Model 3 uses 240Wh, or ~100 grams of CO2/mile with current US grid. Biking a mile uses 53kcal. Fruit or dairy emits ~5g of CO2/kcal (beef is 3 times that), so 150g of CO2/mile. So driving in a single-occupancy Tesla is lower emission than a fruitarian biking.


Quote
Addendum: e-bikes are way lower emissions per mile than conventional bikes. Among vegan diets, rule is the less healthy, the lower the emissions. Fresh fruits & veggies have logistical challenges & low yield/acre. Oils, carbs, & especially sugar are the lowest emitters per Cal!

https://twitter.com/Robotbeat/status/1102249291568029696
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3872 on: October 09, 2019, 06:58:10 PM »
Quote
Driving a mile in a Model 3 uses 240Wh, or ~100 grams of CO2/mile with current US grid. Biking a mile uses 53kcal. Fruit or dairy emits ~5g of CO2/kcal (beef is 3 times that), so 150g of CO2/mile. So driving in a single-occupancy Tesla is lower emission than a fruitarian biking.


Quote
Addendum: e-bikes are way lower emissions per mile than conventional bikes. Among vegan diets, rule is the less healthy, the lower the emissions. Fresh fruits & veggies have logistical challenges & low yield/acre. Oils, carbs, & especially sugar are the lowest emitters per Cal!

https://twitter.com/Robotbeat/status/1102249291568029696

For the Twitter-adverse: I’d posted more of that thread earlier here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg191132.html#msg191132

(Warning: certain people got upset. ;) ;D )
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3873 on: October 09, 2019, 07:03:01 PM »
Moody’s upgrades Tesla Auto Lease Notes because Teslas depreciate less than other cars, gas or electric.
Quote
"Moody's upgrades Tesla Auto Lease Trust 2018-A Notes". Is this a financial post? No. I want to instead point out the reason *why* Tesla got this upgrade:

"The upgrades were prompted by strong residual value performance of the underlying lease contracts"

Put in plain terms: @Tesla cars (Model S/X in this case) simply aren't depreciating much, so leaseholders end up holding a more valuable asset when the lease expires.

Teslas have famously low depreciation. ISeeCars calculated Model S depreciation at a third that of other EVs and half that of equivalent gas vehicles....
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1181687993360359425.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3874 on: October 09, 2019, 07:10:46 PM »
Big TSLAQ names on Twitter are going dark.
Quote
Elonymous (@ElonymousDolos) 10/8/19, 1:58 PM
Uh.. what happened to @BloodsportCap?
$tslaq
https://twitter.com/elonymousdolos/status/1181629889444794368
< He said he was out the last tweet.

Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost  (@tesla_truth) 10/8/19, 4:43 PM
RIP $TSLAQ
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1181671357399977985
Image below.

Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost  (@tesla_truth) 10/8/19, 3:32 PM
Huh, what happened here?
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1181653490893897729
[Image below.]
SJG: trying to destroy evidence most likely

Groggy T. Bear (@GroggyTBear) 10/8/19, 4:04 PM
 It's not what happened. It's what didn't happen.
$TSLAQ didn't happen.
Jan 2020 100/200 puts are all but dead. And they all held them.
And then they all blocked everyone, because they knew better.
For reference - Spiegel bought the 200s at $26...
https://twitter.com/groggytbear/status/1181661716645580805
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3875 on: October 09, 2019, 07:19:10 PM »
Tesla Reached 7,000 Cars Per Week In 3rd Quarter & Nobody Noticed
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/08/tesla-reached-7000-cars-per-week-in-3rd-quarter-nobody-noticed/
Please see their reasoning in the article.

Tesla Model 3 Sales = 2× Ford Mustang Sales or BMW 3 Series Sales (USA)
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/06/tesla-model-3-sales-2x-ford-mustang-sales-bmw-3-series-sales-usa/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3876 on: October 09, 2019, 09:53:14 PM »
Tesla prepares EV owners, Powerwall customers for CA’s historic power outages
October 9, 2019
Quote
As California faces a historic power outage in several Bay Area counties, American electric car maker Tesla appears to have begun making preparations for its customers who are residing in affected areas. Reports from the Tesla community reveal that the company is sending charging reminders to electric car owners, while Powerwall 2 customers are starting to see their home battery units charging up to full power in preparation for the mass outages.
...
Apart from announcements sent to its electric car owners, Tesla Powerwall 2 customers residing in areas affected by the massive PG&E power shutdown have reported that their home battery units have activated their Storm Watch feature. Storm Watch allows Powerwall 2 batteries to charge to their maximum capacity to prepare for potential outages, allowing owners to keep the lights on in their homes even when the grid goes down.

Paired with solar panels, Powerwall 2 batteries have the potential support the power needs of residential homes for an extended period of time. Last year, for example, a Northern California man in PG&E’s electrical service territory ended up having his electricity cut off during a 42-hour period due to fire risks in his area. The man’s Powerwall 2 battery was able to keep the lights on for the entire duration of the outage. By the time PG&E resumed service almost two days later, the Powerwall 2 battery still had 9% charge remaining.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-ev-owners-powerwall-customers-ca-power-outage
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3877 on: October 10, 2019, 02:52:04 AM »
Tesla Announces Date for Third Quarter 2019 Financial Results and Webcast
Quote
Tesla will post its financial results for the third quarter of 2019 after market close on Wednesday, October 23, 2019.
https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-announces-date-third-quarter-2019-financial-results-and

3:30 pm Pacific Time, 6:30 pm Eastern Time, 10:30pm UTC

< Isn’t this early ?
Quote
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) 10/9/19, 6:12 PM
Same timing as last year. A few quarters ago Tesla began reporting a week earlier than previous years’ cadence.
https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1182056155469811714
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 03:01:26 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3878 on: October 10, 2019, 03:53:25 AM »
Quote
TeslaOwnersofMA (@TeslaOwnersofMA) 10/9/19, 8:16 PM
Check out @Tesla #Model Y. These mules looks a lot more complete than prior #Model3. @MotorTrend
https://twitter.com/teslaownersofma/status/1182087588322168832
Photo below.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3879 on: October 10, 2019, 02:29:43 PM »
I was revisiting the announcements about the full body stamping press and the network style wiring with a hub spoke technology which reduces the cabling from 1.5km to 100m.

The stamping was supposed to reduce the body from 70 parts down to nearly single digit parts.

The wiring is designed to allow machines to fit both cable runs and assemblies like doors, where doors could be Pre assembled then mounted.  Something which is, today, almost impossible because of the way the cables have to be fitted.

I suspect it is these changes which are holding up the Y from production.

If both are achieved, it will reduce assembly line time and complexity.  Easing new launches, reducing staff and equipment and boosting profits.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3880 on: October 10, 2019, 02:43:23 PM »
Tesla Superchargers will have Powerpacks to help with outages, says Elon Musk
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-superchargers-will-have-powerpacks-to-help-with-outages-says-elon-musk/
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3881 on: October 10, 2019, 03:42:50 PM »
It is almost as if despite claiming that everything is going to run on solar and wind and unicorn farts, Tesla has instead installed chargers that run on...fossil fuels. How evil they must be! Are they confused into thinking that fossil fuel power generation works better?!?
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3882 on: October 10, 2019, 03:45:15 PM »
Tesla Superchargers will have Powerpacks to help with outages, says Elon Musk

"within the next few weeks..."

Planning supercharger upgrades for 7 years, but now it is just days away. Like magic.


Is this the new:

"3 months maybe, 6 months definitely"
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3883 on: October 10, 2019, 03:50:12 PM »
Advanced Summon, alone, will leapfrog the entire database of knowledge of all competitors, combined, in half a year.  The learning software will consume it in hours.  So long as owners continue to use it.

Ya. All those Waymo cars out there driving around by themselves without ever having a problem, those guys are dumb. What they really need is a Retard Summon feature to lurk through parking lots like a meth-head slipping in and out of consciousness. That data is priceless. Creme de le creme of autonomy data.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3884 on: October 10, 2019, 04:09:11 PM »
Re California:  It’s almost as if Tesla is pulling another Puerto Rico:  nimbly turning its attention to a crisis that has suddenly developed — and taking responsibility on itself to invest the money, resources and time to help.

——

Meanwhile, Tesla is also “making waves” (in the news) off the U.S. east coast.  October 9, 2019:

Biggest Battery In New England Is Unveiled In Nantucket
https://www.wbur.org/earthwhile/2019/10/08/nantucket-energy-storage-lithium-ion-giant-battery

Tesla's grid-scalable battery is supporting this popular East Coast island destination with power
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-powerpack-nantucket-massachusetts-backup-power/
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 04:21:30 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3885 on: October 10, 2019, 08:00:53 PM »
It is almost as if despite claiming that everything is going to run on solar and wind and unicorn farts, Tesla has instead installed chargers that run on...fossil fuels. How evil they must be! Are they confused into thinking that fossil fuel power generation works better?!?

gsy is just not doing as well as usual. California has a goal of 100% renewables, and they have got quite a way along the path - but still a long way to go. The current problem is that not many people (in the USA)  thought the utility company supplying the electricity has such a crap transmission & distribution system that they are likely to burn the place down. In the UK they don't call electricians "Sparky" for nothing.

I worked in Liberia for a time over 30 years ago (US built infrastructure) - when it rained the sound & sight of pot transformers clinging to a pole in a forest of wires exploding when it rained provided our cabaret as we sat at the outside bar looking over the main drag. We non-Americans never understood why they used that rubbish.

So let's hope Tesla's local supercharger networks don't spit sparks all over the place. There's a lot of KvAs in those little beasties.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3886 on: October 10, 2019, 09:18:37 PM »
Where are the profits? Tesla shold be a business, not a religion.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3887 on: October 10, 2019, 11:19:17 PM »
Does anyone have a figure for how many Powerwalls it would take to power up say 25 model 3 LR's?


How about the acreage of solar panels needed to fuel a fleet of 100 E-Taxi's running 2 shifts/day?
Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3888 on: October 11, 2019, 12:12:39 AM »
A Powerwall has 13.5 kWh of usable energy, and the Model 3 LR has a 75kWh battery. So charging from 0 to 100% with no additional energy input would require about 5 and a half Powerwalls. 25 cars would require 140 Powerwalls. Alternatively, about 9 Powerpacks could be used.

If an e-taxi shift uses 80% of the battery capacity, that's 60 kWh per shift or 120 kWh per day. for 100 cars, it's 12000 kWh or 12 MWh. A 1 MW plant is about 2.5 acres. In Nevada, with 8 peak sun hours, 1.5 MW would be needed to produce 12 MWh in a day. That's about 4 acres. In Ohio, with only 3 peak sun hours, 4 MW or 10 acres are needed.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3889 on: October 11, 2019, 12:34:29 AM »
Thanks sedziobs!


While we've a number of EV owners, I believe you're the only one here with their own Tesla. Your perspective provides a touchstone that the rest of us are grateful for.


Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3890 on: October 11, 2019, 08:13:59 AM »
Where are the profits? Tesla shold be a business, not a religion.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1182327145793634304

"Fundamental metric of good of Tesla is how many years sooner it brings the advent of a sustainable energy future"

Musk knows what the bull clowns on this thread don't: Tesla is (structurally) bankwupt. Thus he wants to frame the conversation in such a way that he still has succeeded even when they have to file chapter 11 (which will become chapter 7).
big time oops

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3891 on: October 11, 2019, 01:23:12 PM »
While we've a number of EV owners, I believe you're the only one here with their own Tesla.

A Tesla of unknown ownership recently followed our humble LEAF all the way across country from Bodmin via Helland almost as far as Camelford.

Fortunately in all the circumstances we have lots of wind turbines and solar panels nearby:
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3892 on: October 11, 2019, 01:46:48 PM »
Where are the profits? Tesla shold be a business, not a religion.

Where we're the profits when GM went into chapter 11?  Right, they had given them out to shareholders and when they needed them they were gone.

Let me say this one more time because I'm pretty sick of whacking this mole.

Tesla made a loss of $2bn in 2017 in 2018 Tesla produced close to 3 times as many vehicles and made a loss of $1bn.  That means Tesla is not making a loss on each vehicle sold, otherwise the Tesla loss in 2018 would have been closer to $4bn.

So far, in 2019, Tesla has produced more vehicles than it did in 2018.

In 2018 H1 Tesla losses were greater than H1 losses in 2019.  We know this because Tesla made a profit in both quarters of H2 2018, yet finished with a loss close to that of H1 2019.

This is not an indication of a company that is forced to make a loss.  This is an indication of a company that has better things to do than make artificial profits to please analysts or the stock market.  Tesla has close to $5bn in funds, enough to operate 2018 level losses for 3 years, whilst continuing with a very aggressive roll out program of new technology and models.

Asking where the Tesla profit is has the same answerr as asking where the Google dividend is. They choose not to.

Think of it this way.  Tesla only has to break even in Q3 and make a modest profit in Q3 to equal 2018 losses whilst producing close to 50% more vehicles.

Bleating about profits serves only one thing.  It reduces Tesla's ability to draw down finance to grow and compete with companies many times its size. Those companies are finding it impossible to compete on a level playing field.

What is the quickest way for the incumbents to defeat Tesla? Starve them of money.  Then they can slow down EV adoption to align with the 2030 and 2040 goals of EU bans on FF vehicles.

So every time you bleat "where are the profits", you are making it possible for the major manufacturers to slow down EV Adoption to a pace they are happy with.

If you were interested, you would know that VAG admitted that they found themselves unable to compete in the diesel market at a price point and timescale that made them competitive.  So they decided to lie and cheat their way to the top.

If you have been following my thoughts about the challenges to Tesla success, you will know what I think about the current shorting of Tesla stock. And it is not honesty and integrity.

Think about that when you throw out the "where are the profits".  Because they are there, just not in figures the markets like.  They are in hundreds of thousands of vehicles, the largest car manufacturing building in the world, the best vehicle optimised computer in the world, the best electric drive train in the world, the best Li battery management system in the world and a host of other firsts.

Where are the visible profits?  The profits that make the stock market rich? They are in FF vehicles which have been around for over 100 years and continue to ramp up CO2 ppm in the atmosphere.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3893 on: October 11, 2019, 01:59:23 PM »
A Powerwall has 13.5 kWh of usable energy, and the Model 3 LR has a 75kWh battery. So charging from 0 to 100% with no additional energy input would require about 5 and a half Powerwalls. 25 cars would require 140 Powerwalls. Alternatively, about 9 Powerpacks could be used.

Conversely the average journey is 29 miles which is 8kwh.  Well within the range of the power wall to deliver. For 25 cars, this would equate to around 15 powerwalls.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3894 on: October 11, 2019, 04:03:43 PM »
The Powerwall home battery system is irrelevant, the original news item said Powerpack, the integrated commercial-scale battery system, with a capacity of 210 kwh per pack and full scalability. It was just Terry mixing up nouns.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3895 on: October 11, 2019, 04:34:51 PM »
Where we're the profits when GM went into chapter 11?  Right, they had given them out to shareholders and when they needed them they were gone.

Oh my, a company that made money for 100 years and distributed the money to shareholders via a dividend. WOW. How could they do such a thing!?!

You are kind onto something though...without profits a company goes bankrupt. Tesla will do so without ever distributing a single red cent to shareholders.

Tesla has close to $5bn in funds, enough to operate 2018 level losses for 3 years, whilst continuing with a very aggressive roll out program of new technology and models.

Asking where the Tesla profit is has the same answerr as asking where the Google dividend is. They choose not to.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
LIES LIES LIES LIES LIES LIES LIES LIES LIES LIES
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


Neil continues to tell the same lie over and over. He might even think it is true at this point. But it is a total lie.

The lie: "Tesla could be profitable, but chooses to grow fast instead."

Tesla's own numbers prove this to be a pure fiction...

In the first 2 quarters of the year, Tesla's capex was about the same as its depreciation. So they are spending literally just enough money to maintain operations.

The truth: Tesla’s capex last quarter($250M) represented less than half of its depreciation, amortization, and impairment of $579M. DAMN!!!!! (The opposite of the tale neil tells.)

Can Neil point to where in the financials there would be a shift to profitability if Tesla wanted to slow the growth? OF COURSE NOT. IT IS JUST A STORY THAT BOUNCES AROUND BULLS' HEADS. IT"S A LIE.
big time oops

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3896 on: October 11, 2019, 07:11:24 PM »
Keep yelling GSY, but everyone can see you avoid the elephant in the room.

It is a simple numbers game.

The more cars Tesla sells, the less loss it makes on each vehicle, year on year.

If Tesla was not able to make a profit on the vehicles it manufactured, this would not be so. The losses would track the sales growth and, possibly, outrun them

In fact it is the opposite. The more cars Tesla sells, the less the overhead weighs on the profits.

This is fact.

Now go scream it is a lie, please do..

I was going to say more, but why give you the opportunity to cherry pick once more.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3897 on: October 11, 2019, 08:10:43 PM »
No Neil, I am not cherry picking.

Your argument is that Tesla is only not profitable because of their growth. The truth is that capex has been declining and is not lower than depreciation. That is corporate shrinkage not growth.

Pretend I cherry pick, fine. Or you could man up and actually respond to the point I'm making. (Obviously that won't happen cuz their is no response that makes any sense.)


Here, I'll show you how to genuinely respond and create discussion that does more than obfuscate...

Yes, Tesla does on every car. BUT that margin has been shrinking consistently and shows no sign of slowing. Tesla's margin is now the same as GM despite selling cars with a price that typically lends itself to higher margins.  As a flood of new models from the major automakers give Tesla new competition, it makes sense that downward price pressure will continue.

The real ELEPHANT is this: Tesla is demand constrained. This is the reason they have been lowering prices to keep sales flat. This is the most basic concept in economics. Supply and demand. In order to increase sales, Tesla would have to further lower prices.

Let's do some math...

-Tesla lost $1.1B in the first half of the year. (Nothing to do with capex and r&d is really quite low. So it isn't about growth, the numbers are very clear.)

-Tesla made a gross profit of almost $1.5B in the first half of the year.

So, for Tesla to break even they would have had to sell about 75% more vehicles. That is a lot. In order to sell what they did, they cut prices severely. So how much would they have to cut prices to sell 75% more? Probably enough that the damage to the margin would mean that gross profit wouldn't increase AT ALL.

(I am actually being too nice. Obviously SG&A would increase substantially with a near doubling of production and sales.)

[Neil, please read this entire post in a mental yell. That is the intended tone.]
big time oops

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3898 on: October 11, 2019, 09:30:28 PM »
The Powerwall home battery system is irrelevant, the original news item said Powerpack, the integrated commercial-scale battery system, with a capacity of 210 kwh per pack and full scalability. It was just Terry mixing up nouns.
Actually it was Terry contemplating a response to Sig's post #3875, which begins with

"Tesla prepares EV owners, Powerwall customers for CA’s historic power outagesOctober 9, 2019"

You might have noted that the units I used - 25 Model 3 LR, 100 E-Taxis, PowerWalls, and acreage of solar panels have nothing at all to do with any (recent) news item, or at least any news item being discussed here.
The reason it appeared irrelevant is simply because it was never intended to be relevant.
Terry

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3899 on: October 11, 2019, 10:09:24 PM »
To address oren's news item.


When, and to what agencies has Tesla applied for the permits to install PowerPacks, "in regions affected by California's power outages"? Two weeks is an unusual time frame, but perhaps his permits have been held up for months. Who is sitting on these permits and why?
Had Tesla applied for permits through the whole state, or is it simply in the affected regions?


Most permits are issued at the county level, & the power outages are occurring in multiple counties. Are all of the counties expected to approve the work in two weeks? Have none of the involved counties given their approval?


Is adding PowerPacks a recent idea? Why weren't they installed when the Superchargers were installed? Will installations be coming on line in two weeks?


Could it be that Elon just made up the whole story & that no permits had been applied for prior to the date of this "news item".
Terry