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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4000 on: October 21, 2019, 06:01:15 PM »
hi, large
largest?
[size=100pt]too large[/size]
Don't know how to get such large sizes other than by editing the numbers. 3 digit numbers don't seem to be recognised. But I hope these large sizes don't become too common.

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4001 on: October 21, 2019, 06:11:48 PM »
Don't know how to get such large sizes other than by editing the numbers. 3 digit numbers don't seem to be recognised. But I hope these large sizes don't become too common.
Have I let the genie out of the bottle?
Will DungeonMaster have to hack the writing program?
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4002 on: October 21, 2019, 07:31:27 PM »
...
I think I will wait to post here again until the BK happens. So goodbye for the next few months.
...
Until the biggest "I told you so" ever, so long.

Proving once again the value of your words here.  Less than zero.

How much less than zero?

My account must have been hacked. I would never bid good riddance to my favor circus of a thread. ;D ;) ;D
big time oops

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4003 on: October 21, 2019, 10:17:23 PM »
In case you did not follow the link GSY

Quote
Leaving and never coming back (commonly LANCB) is an internet euphemism whereby a frustrated participant in a forum, or blog, or whatever, takes away their ball and refuses to play. Sometimes this occurs after grandly declaring "victory," but more often when they are simply unable to get their own way. Often times, the LANCBer cannot get his or her way because the forum is riddled with sycophants who gang up on them, even though the LANCBer is clearly correct.

It is usually publicly announced, done with great fanfare, and followed by a quiet return within a week or even within a few minutes. A statement of LANCB virtually guarantees a return, thus destroying any ultimata or idealism involved in their "leaving."

A particularly grandiose LANCB is often referred to as a flounce. The word can also be a verb, as in "user Tyranny_of_Evil_Women flounced out of the forum, but he was back three days later posting as AgentLemon." If accompanied by a particularly emotional farewell speech, this is also known as a grand staircase exit. A particularly acrimonious LANCB is called a ragequit.

It is a common affliction with internet users who are in urgent need of the wahmbulance.
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/RationalWiki:Leaving_and_never_coming_back
 Your LANCB was predictably followed by a return within days .
Such behavior  is just a cry for attention from poor lonely trolls who are not getting the notice they crave.
You have made an arse of your self....I am sure you will feel free to continue doing so.

Neil's point was well made
Billions of data points give Tesla an advantage no one is going to duplicate for decades. This data advantage is not just for self drive it includes all facets of  electric car engineering.

Your point not so.
Have a look at the deprecation of models that compete with the model s.
The reason such cars crash in price is as they age they become unreliable and are extremely expensive to fix .
A small issue with overloaded  memory on one board is nothing when you look at the multiple problems with BMW 7 series or Merc S once they get old.
I have seen older road legal running BMW 7xx's and merc S's go at auction for less than the value of their wheels and tires  here in NZ because of the issues with reliability they are known to have.
As my mechanic says the purchase price of older premium sedans is just the deposit.
A google search will find plenty of data illustrating  this fact .
This web site will soon give you an idea of the deprecation and costs of running large premium sedans https://usedfirst.com/
Note they don't allow for the effect of the tax rebate on purchase price of Tesla making the result skewed . Even then Tesla still come out far ahead in retained value and cost of repairs.

« Last Edit: October 21, 2019, 10:38:50 PM by KiwiGriff »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4004 on: October 22, 2019, 12:38:36 AM »
Hyperchange video: Tesla Q3 '19 Earnings Preview w/ Rob Maurer (Tesla Daily)
Includes a discussion of why revenue down from Q3 2018 would not be unexpected, given that Q3 last year was a big ramp for the Model 3, and sales then were limited to the U.S., which is much more efficient than the first year of global distribution in 2019.  Also that any Osborning of Model S Plaid will be offset by people who were considering a Taycan and will now wait for the MS — plus, the benefit of simply having more Teslas on the road, even if they are Model 3/Y, will mean even more organic growth from word of mouth, as well as additional valuable Autopilot data.



—- the “Tesla Stretch” continues:
Quote
James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) 10/19/19, 12:02 PM
Answer poll question *only if you own a Tesla* ...
2-part question:
1- Did you buy in the U.S. or elsewhere?
2- Have you ever spent more money? (on a non-Tesla vehicle)
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1185587144422805505
Results image below.

—- Competitive Advertising ;D :
Quote
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost  (@tesla_truth) 10/20/19, 12:33 PM
Porsche: We spent millions to put a Porsche EV in Star Wars!

Tesla: We spent $0 to put a Tesla in actual space
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1185957272314236928
- joke stolen from @ByeonChansoo

Reference:
Porsche and ‘Star Wars’ announce partnership with Taycan-Space Pod ad
https://www.teslarati.com/porsche-taycan-star-wars-ad-video/

—- Teslacams catching on:
Caught on Tesla Sentry Mode cameras, Tesla vandal turns himself in after keying news editor’s Model 3: ‘I wasn’t thinking’
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-vandal-surrenders-sentry-mode-model-3-video/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4005 on: October 22, 2019, 01:35:42 AM »
Tesla Model 3 wins ‘Car of the Year’ award from prestigious UK auto magazine
Quote
The Tesla Model 3 was given four separate awards, including “Car of the Year,” by a prestigious automotive magazine in the United Kingdom.

Among its recognition as “Car of the Year” by Parker’s Car Guides, the Model 3 was also named “Best Electric Car”, “Best Company Car”, and won the “Best Safety” Award for any vehicle on the market. Experts say they were impressed with the Model 3, stating it is “capable, likable, and extremely good to drive.” ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-car-of-the-year-parkers-guide/

—- California:
PG&E Head Says To Expect Rolling Blackouts For The Next 10 Years
Quote
The CEO of Pacific Gas & Electric, Bill Johnson, appeared before the California Public Utilities Commission last week and told the regulators the state will likely see blackouts for another 10 years, according to a report by NPR. He told the commissioners the company is trying to reduce the chances of wildfires by trimming more trees and using technology to target smaller areas of the grid when fire dangers require power outages. But it could take 10 years before such outages are “really ratcheted down significantly.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/21/pge-head-says-to-expect-rolling-blackouts-for-the-next-10-years/

Referring to the above, Elon Musk tweeted:
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/21/19, 3:50 PM
Order Tesla Solar + Powerwall battery for 24/7 clean power & no blackouts! Tesla.com/solar
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1186369158335750144
EM:  Very likely that a home with clean power that’s lower cost than utility, plus blackout protection via Powerwall, will have a positive effect on value
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4006 on: October 22, 2019, 03:32:34 AM »
Neil's point was well made
Billions of data points give Tesla an advantage no one is going to duplicate for decades. This data advantage is not just for self drive it includes all facets of  electric car engineering.

Tesla has billions of miles of data...and their self-driving system is still the industry laggard according to every objective and thorough analysis I have seen. (If there is information to the contrary, please do share.)

So if the first billion miles yields nothing (or next to nothing), why would any impartial person think that the 2nd or 3rd billion would yield greatness? It just doesn't make any sense.

Your point not so.
Have a look at the deprecation of models that compete with the model s.
The reason such cars crash in price is as they age they become unreliable and are extremely expensive to fix .
A small issue with overloaded  memory on one board is nothing when you look at the multiple problems with BMW 7 series or Merc S once they get old.

You seem to have totally missed my point actually.

I was not saying that Telsa computers age worse than the competition. I was asking Neil how it made sense that Tesla's computing was THE BEST when there are significant problems manifesting in the real world and no notable benefits.
big time oops

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4007 on: October 22, 2019, 04:47:44 AM »
 
Lets ask some experts about Tesla autopilot .
From one of Sigmetnow links just above.
TESLA MODEL 3
Parkers Awards 2020 - Safety Award of the Year Winner

Quote
Whenever you climb into your vehicle, you want to be confident that it will keep you, your friends and your family safe. Tesla's Model 3 makes sure you and your precious cargo remain in one piece while on the road, using the latest technological advances to avoid potential hazards ahead - that's why it's won our 2020 Safety Award of the Year.
Much has been written about Tesla’s Autopilot driver-assistance systems in recent years, but the American firm’s newest car, the Model 3, proves the benefits of such packages by achieving a deeply impressive 94% score when assessed by the experts at Euro NCAP. Not only that, the Model 3 has become the overall new benchmark for overall crash-test safety courtesy of its strong architecture and effective restraint systems. Both adults and children are well-protected in Tesla’s smallest electric car with ratings of 96% and 86%, respectively. Rivals have some catching-up to do.
NCAP's evaluation.
https://www.euroncap.com/en/ratings-rewards/driver-assistance-systems/
They give Tesla 94% for safety assistance systems "Autopilot"  the nearest score from any other car manufacturer is 82%.
You know actual world recognized  experts on car safety saying Tesla’s Autopilot driver-assistance system is the world leading benchmark.
Not the opinion of some interweb troll who can not even decide if he is coming or going .

You don't understand enough about computing  to grok the issue with  flash memory and why it is a none issue going forward.
It has already been resolved probably by limiting the number of logs for specific unimportant events in an over the air update.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2019, 05:24:39 AM by KiwiGriff »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4008 on: October 22, 2019, 06:20:33 AM »
Kiwi, you are a bit ridiculous.

I ask for some analysis of the self driving competition, and you don't even pretend to respond.

Waymo is WAY ahead of Tesla in self driving capability. And so is EVERYONE else.

Tesla's billion miles don't yield a thing.


(Don't obfuscate via babble nonsense about driver assisted tech.)


Do you actually think Tesla has better FSD than Waymo? If so, your an idiot.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4009 on: October 22, 2019, 06:41:56 AM »
More depreciation than capex.

Shrinking Y/Y revenue.

Shrinking gross margins.

Increasing competition.

Upside down balance sheet.

Mounting legal liabilities.

Not a single adult in the room. Every one who has entered has immediately turn around and left. (Must be a great room!)

Solar business imploding (and catching fire).


The Semi is fake. The hovercraft roadster is fake. The 7-seater model 3 is fake. FSD is fake. Solar tile is fake. Neural net is fake. Tesla pick-up is fake. Model Y is probably fake. fElon's promise of same day service is fake. Battery swap is fake. fElon's promise to double # of superchargers in 2019 was fake. $35k model 3 is fake. Tesla "record" track lap is fake. Gigafactory is basically fake since is mostly empty. Giga2 is almost entirely fake as it is almost entirely empty. $420 buyout was fake. Giga3 is probably fake. ARK's $4000 price target is fake. Tesla's profitability is fake. Tesla's solvency is fake. fElon is a fake billionaire who just claimed in a legal filing to be "financially illiquid".

Every Tesla bull is fake above average intelligence.
big time oops

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4010 on: October 22, 2019, 08:38:37 AM »
Five characteristics common to movements that deny.
1) Cherry picking;
2) Fake experts;
3) Misrepresentation and logical fallacies;
4) Impossible expectations of what research can deliver; and
5) Conspiracy theories;.

Who the hell is  Navigant Research the source of your graph?
I googled to have a look.
Their automotive expert is biased as smeg against Tesla. He writes garbage for Forbes not someone who has any authority on cars let alone self drive technology.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/#4335979a1470
 
Ten different areas Navigant make value judgments to rate self drive capability on.
 vision; go-to market strategy; partners; production strategy; technology; sales, marketing, and distribution; product capability; product quality and reliability; product portfolio; and staying power.
You would have to be extremely biased  to not know Tesla lead in most of them .
Go buy a single product from anyone else in that graph that can compete with the capability that every single Tesla sold today has. Opps you cant they are not out of the lab yet . As NCAP found  Tesla is already leading self drive tech in the market place by a large margin.
That fact alone makes the  Navigant  matrix demonstrably blatant nonsense .
  Fake expert and cherry picking one biased study.
 
The rest of the denial matrix is easily discerned in  your comments from conspiracy gibbering to down right lies .

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4011 on: October 22, 2019, 02:51:33 PM »
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 10/21/19, 2:14 PM
TeslaCharts has now prophesied an imminent Tesla bankruptcy for the last 627 days
He’s wrong at every turn, spread rumors like “can’t raise can’t leave” that are textbook examples of fraud, and has caused millions in losses.
At what point do you log off out of embarrassment?
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1186345120817303552

——- Sarcasm alert:
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 10/21/19, 1:43 PM
Yes, that’s exactly what’s happening. I’d advise you to short as much as physically possible
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1186337263468199936
Quote
Alex the Great (@RenatoD14713839) 10/21/19, 1:00 PM
$tsla $tslaq
Could it be that Elon and $tsla are out of communication because a chapter 11 is being prepared?
Could be the bomb of the market this week!
https://twitter.com/renatod14713839/status/1186326445867569152

—-
If the bold predictions of Tesla’s imminent failure by the biggest shorts on Twitter had been correct, there would no longer be a Tesla to write about. 

Chevy Bolt & Hyundai Kona EV Crushing Tesla Model 3 In US Sales — Or Not
October 21st, 2019
Quote
There are a handful of hilarious and informative pro-Tesla Twitter accounts. Elon Musk’s may be the most famous (either his or Earl’s), and he’s got a pretty good handle on humor (dad jokes and such), but another tweeter who makes me laugh on a routine basis and who I think more people should follow is The Short Shorts Historian/(@TeslaHistorian). This history professor is quite adept at picking LOL-funny tweets from yesteryear and bringing them to the harsh neon lights of modern-day Twitter.

In recent days, The Short Shorts Historian has been highlighting tweets from 1–4 years ago that predicted what has clearly come to pass: the Chevy Bolt has embarrassed the Tesla Model 3, destroyed Tesla, and laid the sad Silicon Valley upstart to rest. The Hyundai Kona EV and Toyota Prius Prime also put the Model 3 in its place. Alas, if only the Model 3 had had a real dashboard and more buttons and knobs. For the record, I love the Kona EV and also like and respect the Bolt EV. They are good electric vehicles, and I fully condone buying them if they fit the class that serves your needs and desires.

Let’s first look at the predictions. …
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/21/chevy-bolt-hyundai-kona-ev-crushing-tesla-model-3-in-us-sales-model-3-no-mass-market-car/
« Last Edit: October 22, 2019, 02:57:54 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4012 on: October 22, 2019, 03:31:28 PM »
Five characteristics common to movements that deny.
1) Cherry picking;
2) Fake experts;
3) Misrepresentation and logical fallacies;
4) Impossible expectations of what research can deliver; and
5) Conspiracy theories;.

Who the hell is  Navigant Research the source of your graph?
I googled to have a look.
Their automotive expert is biased as smeg against Tesla. He writes garbage for Forbes not someone who has any authority on cars let alone self drive technology.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/#4335979a1470
 
Ten different areas Navigant make value judgments to rate self drive capability on.
 vision; go-to market strategy; partners; production strategy; technology; sales, marketing, and distribution; product capability; product quality and reliability; product portfolio; and staying power.
You would have to be extremely biased  to not know Tesla lead in most of them .
Go buy a single product from anyone else in that graph that can compete with the capability that every single Tesla sold today has. Opps you cant they are not out of the lab yet . As NCAP found  Tesla is already leading self drive tech in the market place by a large margin.
That fact alone makes the  Navigant  matrix demonstrably blatant nonsense .
  Fake expert and cherry picking one biased study.
 
The rest of the denial matrix is easily discerned in  your comments from conspiracy gibbering to down right lies .


Blah blah blah blah blah.

Do you think Tesla FSD is ahead of Waymo?

« Last Edit: October 22, 2019, 03:47:06 PM by GoSouthYoungins »
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4013 on: October 22, 2019, 03:44:38 PM »
ARK has the highest price target for TSLA of any significant investor: $4000.

Why do they think TSLA is worth that much? FSD robotaxis!

Are they really that stupid? Nope. Pump and dump. Just a scam.

Their real price target used to be around $300. Now it is around $250. But they still publicly say $4000.
big time oops

cognitivebias2

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4014 on: October 22, 2019, 04:54:31 PM »
GSY, that would be cherry-picking.

How about the discussion of their trading strategy, or how much TSLA they still hold?  Nah.  Pick them cherries.



PS... didn't you promise to go away?

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4015 on: October 22, 2019, 05:01:48 PM »
Do you think Tesla FSD is ahead of Waymo?

Well, if I read this article correctly

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/money/business/tech/2018/08/21/waymo-expands-arizona-footprint-chandler-before-ride-service-start/1046805002/

Then yes.  Because Waymo software is only able to work in areas which have been intensively mapped previously and that mapping data uploaded into the vehicles.

Even then Waymo vehicles still have a team of people to monitor the vehicles just in case they go off the rails. That is of course for those vehicles which don't still have a safety driver.

Tesla FSD is expected to read road signs, respond to new situations on roads it has never seen before and to act much more like a human.

The Waymo software is a smart chimp.  It is never going to get that much smarter. The Tesla software is a human child......

But feel free to ignore me and carry on digging Tesla's grave.  I will cheer on every drop of sweat.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4016 on: October 22, 2019, 05:51:56 PM »
Folks I beg you all - will you stop feeding the troll please? Ignoring is the best strategy.
Not because Tesla is a 100% success (sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't). Not because Elon Musk is god (sometimes he is smart, sometimes stupid). But because there is a certain posting style and a one-way duscussion channel, that cannot be reasoned with and only grows with resistance.
If I were the moderator, I would have banned such trolling from this thread a long time ago. But I am not, and banning users from specific threads is not technically feasible. So ignore. The thread will be much better, I guarantee it. I volunteer to post bad news and the negative view from time to time, as I once did during a blessedly untrolled period.
If you find it hard to ignore, put on you ignore list.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4017 on: October 22, 2019, 05:59:50 PM »
oren, I am not a troll. You just don't like that I point out that this company is a total fraud.

I mean, is there ANY other company that sells ANY products that DO NOT EXIST? No. But Tesla, they have dozens of fake products that they are happy to take gullible virtue-signalers money for.

What would be nice is an ACTUAL responds to my questions. Then maybe my behavior would seem less trolly. But when I point out things, the responses are usually at best obfuscating or misinformed and at worst trolling.

Thats right. I am not a troll. Yall are the trolls!  ;D
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4018 on: October 22, 2019, 06:04:15 PM »
GSY, that would be cherry-picking.

How about the discussion of their trading strategy, or how much TSLA they still hold?  Nah.  Pick them cherries.



PS... didn't you promise to go away?

Cherry picking?!? WTF. How is that cherry picking? It doesn't make any sense. Why is every bull mentally inept?

PS... :P
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4019 on: October 22, 2019, 06:06:16 PM »
Not a fool asks, "Do you think Tesla FSD is ahead of Waymo?"

You answer, "Tesla FSD is expected to read road signs, respond to new situations on roads it has never seen before and to act much more like a human."




Are you familiar with the difference between reality and expectations?
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4020 on: October 22, 2019, 06:09:54 PM »
Now, to your larger point.

I do understand that Tesla's strategy could be a more long term one. Your argument makes sense.  But it is far from a certainty. And considering that a billion miles have yielded nothing, it doesn't really seem very likely. Hope. Tesla hopes it will work.

3 months maybe, 6 months definitely. 3 years ago.
big time oops

Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4021 on: October 22, 2019, 06:45:42 PM »
Maybe the best solution would be for GSY to drop by once every quarter, after the results are published. During that day he can post whatever he likes, say whatever he likes (even that people are morons), troll, be trolled, and so on.

A bit like that movie, The Purge (haven't seen it, as I don't enjoy watching violence, but the premise is interesting).

How about it, GSY?
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4022 on: October 22, 2019, 07:03:54 PM »
ARK is buying TSLA.
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 10/21/19, 7:29 PM
Some shorts are saying “Hey Cathie wood is selling!!!”
According to this she added over 400,000 shares since the last report
...
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1186424297130098693
< Institutional holdings report came out today.  ARK is the last line in these screenshots....
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4023 on: October 22, 2019, 07:09:57 PM »
Maybe the best solution would be for GSY to drop by once every quarter, after the results are published. During that day he can post whatever he likes, say whatever he likes (even that people are morons), troll, be trolled, and so on.

A bit like that movie, The Purge (haven't seen it, as I don't enjoy watching violence, but the premise is interesting).

How about it, GSY?

His statements are very precise and his questions as well, hence why should he be the one who has to make changes to his postings while the rest is simply copy pasting links and images from biased sources and mostly post in a manner with a lot of this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non_sequitur_(literary_device)

Probably someone wrote a PM and complained and it does not matter much who is usually right and who is not. Names count a lot (who is who) like in the rest of the world which BTW none of the really evil things change, cumulated wealth for one or a meaningful price tag on pollution and CO2 emission etc.

As long as the guys with a benefit for the rulers vote for or against something the rulers follow suit or in other terms KTA.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4024 on: October 22, 2019, 07:38:06 PM »
I will Purge all.

Starting tomorrow.


Quick question: What is the largest auto manufacturing building in the world? Neil claims that Tesla owns it. I am unfamiliar with it. Is it on Mars?


Fun earnings report questions:

-Will Tesla have Y/Y revenue decline?

-Will depreciation continue to outpace capex?

-How long can gross margin go?

-How much FSD revenue will Tesla recognize?


Fun earnings call questions:

-Will there be a surprise resignation at the end of the call?

-What will fElons main distraction from reality and the numbers be? Model Y or Giga3?

-Will fElon be rolling on something spicy? Maybe a little 420, or the earnings call powder? (LSD micro-dose is a given.)

-Will any real reporters get to ask questions? (If so, will fElon call them "boring" or "boneheads"?)

-Will the youtube clown who drew windmills on a sailboat get to ask a question?
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4025 on: October 22, 2019, 09:39:18 PM »
Every answer but the relevant one.

Yeear on year, the per unit loss reduces as volume increases.

I asked before, several times.  Explain how this makes Tesla a fraud and a failure.

You cannot answer so you rant and rave and insult and denigrate.

So I don't care what you say, I will continue watching progress and results and continue to talk about what I see that mean.

As for expectations? Both Autopilot and Advanced summon have proven those expectations to be correct. Tesla do not need to spend months doing high res imaging and creating rooms of custodians to watch over their AI drivers. Instead they teach them to drive and keep them updated on best practises.

Just as a smart chimp looks much smarter than a 2 year old, Waymo "looks" better than Tesla FSD software today. But the Tesla child can age years in days.  The Waymo smart chimp can learn to read pictures and recognise when it sees them, but as soon as it goes into new ground it is in trouble.  As it is, today, it can't get smarter.

This is my world I am talking about and my analogy. Not some link to a hack who didn't understand the content.

Why does Waymo have to use a smart chimp? Their computers are not advanced enough to learn like a child!

To predict how this is going to play out, that is all you need to know.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4026 on: October 22, 2019, 10:21:49 PM »
If you had invested in just about any major auto manufacturer 5 years ago and held onto the shares you would have made no money as at today.

The Auto Industry is a crap investment. Maybe Tesla will be the exception to the rule, or maybe not.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4027 on: October 22, 2019, 11:16:14 PM »
The Auto Industry is a crap investment. Maybe Tesla will be the exception to the rule, or maybe not.

Not without some of the non Auto lines Tesla is developing.  To call the Automotive market cutthroat is being nice.

In the end, I guess, it will come down to rights issues, profits and earnings per share related to the share price.   I did a dive into Ford and GM for comparison....  Interesting the outstanding shares and the profits and the earnings per share.  Ford is in a world of pain.   Tesla has the potential to beat them both on a per share basis.

I would say, in the next 5 years, the largest possible game changers are Insurance and FSD ride hailing.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4028 on: October 23, 2019, 01:44:15 AM »
What can Powerwall do for you?  :) 8)

Quote
Now You Know (@NYKChannel) 10/21/19, 5:14 PM
Not even Mother Nature can stop an episode of Tesla Time News from happening! #tesla #powerwall #teslatimenews #nowyouknow #NYK
https://twitter.com/nykchannel/status/1186390214786330631
1min “live”/edited video at the link;  I assume related to the recent wind storm in the NE U.S..  (Massachusetts)
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4029 on: October 23, 2019, 04:59:20 PM »
Yeear on year, the per unit loss reduces as volume increases.

Strange wording choice, but I am quite sure you mean that as Tesla makes more cars they lose less money per car made. Which is pure nonsense; (your specialty it would appear).

For starters, as volume has increased, gross margin has drastically decreased. But lets look at the bigger "yeear on year" picture.

-In 2018 Tesla produced 350,000 cars and lost $975M. So they lost about $2750 per car.

-In H1 2019 Tesla produced 180,000 cars and lost $1.1B. So they lost about $6000 per car.

So to sum up: the point you made is 100% the opposite of reality.

Also, what is the largest car manufacturing building?
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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4030 on: October 23, 2019, 05:08:09 PM »
Yeear on year, the per unit loss reduces as volume increases.

Strange wording choice, but I am quite sure you mean that as Tesla makes more cars they lose less money per car made. Which is pure nonsense; (your specialty it would appear).

For starters, as volume has increased, gross margin has drastically decreased. But lets look at the bigger "yeear on year" picture.

-In 2018 Tesla produced 350,000 cars and lost $975M. So they lost about $2750 per car.

-In H1 2019 Tesla produced 180,000 cars and lost $1.1B. So they lost about $6000 per car.

So to sum up: the point you made is 100% the opposite of reality.

Also, what is the largest car manufacturing building?

What about H1 2018 to H1 2019?

Is there a reason you chose not to compare like with like?
 

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4031 on: October 23, 2019, 05:27:26 PM »
Yeear on year, the per unit loss reduces as volume increases.

Strange wording choice, but I am quite sure you mean that as Tesla makes more cars they lose less money per car made. Which is pure nonsense; (your specialty it would appear).

For starters, as volume has increased, gross margin has drastically decreased. But lets look at the bigger "yeear on year" picture.

-In 2018 Tesla produced 350,000 cars and lost $975M. So they lost about $2750 per car.

-In H1 2019 Tesla produced 180,000 cars and lost $1.1B. So they lost about $6000 per car.

So to sum up: the point you made is 100% the opposite of reality.

Also, what is the largest car manufacturing building?

What about H1 2018 to H1 2019?

Is there a reason you chose not to compare like with like?

GSY is right. I know this because he told me so and I am a dumbass troll if I think otherwise.

ps: I also believe everything that Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and the Koch Brothers tell me.

and that's all I'm going to say about that.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4032 on: October 23, 2019, 05:34:39 PM »
Is there a reason you chose not to compare like with like?


Yes, because Tesla made a bigger loss for less units delivered in H1 2018.  God forbid that we should see that.

It might actually prove that Tesla is doing something right.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4033 on: October 23, 2019, 05:40:54 PM »
Electrek is now reporting that Reuters has reported start of trial production at GF3.

https://electrek.co/2019/10/23/tesla-trial-production-model-3-sell-gigafactory-3-workers/amp/

I'm not so sure reading the Op by Reuters.

That being said, I find it curious that the investors meeting has been pulled forward into October and pushed back half an hour to 06:30 in Shanghai.

Not long to wait.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4034 on: October 23, 2019, 07:06:44 PM »
What about H1 2018 to H1 2019?
Is there a reason you chose not to compare like with like?

They hadn't really started mass producing yet. And the auto business does not see huge swings through the course of the year. So it doesn't really matter. But...

I guess we should go Q by Q, year over year...

Tesla is about to announce that they lost at least $2k per car Q3. And they made money per car Q3 2018.


Anyways, the evidence for what Neil is claiming.....crickets.

GSY is right...I am a dumbass troll...

 8)
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4035 on: October 23, 2019, 07:14:51 PM »
Lets take the Big View if the lil brains going to claim I'm cherry picking...


In 2018 Tesla lost $2750 per car.

In 2019 Tesla losses per car will be between $5400 and $3000 per car.

(The above 2019 losses are based on 370k-430k cars produced, losses between $1.3B and $2B. I believe those are safe estimates.)


For the 70 IQs reading this: 2750 is less than 3000, and much less than 5400. (So what Neil is saying is nonsense. At least he is consistent.)
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4036 on: October 23, 2019, 08:48:21 PM »
IMHO none of the quarters are really comparable. 1H2018 saw production hell, while 2H2018 saw gross margin paradise in NA. 1H2019 had the European gross margin paradise, but also had logistics hell, sharply cut prices, and crash of S/X sales.
Changes should be smaller from now on, except for the unknown China/G3 effect, until Model Y comes along. If Tesla goes on a path of improving results (increased deliveries, reduced losses) it will be a good sign, if it continues to hemorrhage it will be a bad sign, despite various excuses.

In the investor call I will also be looking for signs of Model Y timing, and any sign of the Semi.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4037 on: October 23, 2019, 10:11:56 PM »

-In 2018 Tesla produced 350,000 cars and lost $975M. So they lost about $2750 per car.

-In H1 2019 Tesla produced 180,000 cars and lost $1.1B. So they lost about $6000 per car.



This is getting boring.

At the end of Q2 2018 Tesla had shipped 70,720 cars of a mix of Model3 and Models S/X

At the end of Q2 2018 Tesla had made non GAAP losses of 1.08Billion.

That, at the time, was a loss of $15,000 per car.

At that time the industry was quite correct to worry about whether Tesla could make it. Whether the ramp up really was the ramp up.  Or if Tesla simply could not make cars at a profit.

So, please, do, stop cherry picking.  Only the profits in Q3 and Q4 2018 saved Tesla from a total disaster.

We are at the same point Tesla were at in 2018, until we get the call this evening.  At this point Tesla have delivered more than twice as many vehicles, for H1 2019 as they did in H1 2018.  The loss is slightly higher.  Giving us a per unit loss of  $6,000.

So I will be waiting till the end of 2019 to compare 2018 with.  Already, per unit, Tesla is ahead.  Even if they make a small loss in Q3, they will still be ahead.  It was not till both the profits of Q3 AND Q4 2018 had been factored in that the losses, in relation to production, dropped to the levels we now talk about.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4038 on: October 23, 2019, 10:15:29 PM »
... I find it curious that the investors meeting has been pulled forward into October and pushed back half an hour to 06:30 in Shanghai.

Results have been moved forward for a few quarters now.


Tesla Announces Date for Third Quarter 2019 Financial Results and Webcast
Quote
Tesla will post its financial results for the third quarter of 2019 after market close on Wednesday, October 23, 2019.
https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-announces-date-third-quarter-2019-financial-results-and

3:30 pm Pacific Time, 6:30 pm Eastern Time, 10:30pm UTC

< Isn’t this early?
Quote
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) 10/9/19, 6:12 PM
Same timing as last year. A few quarters ago Tesla began reporting a week earlier than previous years’ cadence.
https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1182056155469811714
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4039 on: October 23, 2019, 11:53:37 PM »
So, the earnings letter is out before the call.

CASH
•$383M increase in our cash and cash equivalents balance to $5.3B
•$371M operating cash flow less capex (free cash flow)

PROFITABILITY
•$261M GAAP operating income; 4.1% operating margin
•$143M GAAP net income; $342M non-GAAP net income ex-SBC
22.8% GAAP Automotive Gross Margin

OTHER HIGHLIGHTS
•Gigafactory Shanghai ahead of schedule, trial production started
•Model Y ahead of schedule, production expected by summer 2020
•Record vehicle production of 96k and deliveries of 97k
•Record storage deployment of 477 MWh and 48% solar growth QoQ


https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-q3-2019-earnings-results-profitable/
On Tesla: https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/47313d21-3cac-4f69-9497-d161bce15da4

That'll do!

When I said that there is a difference between "choosing" to make a loss and having a loss forced on you by unprofitable product, I was not just talking to myself.

Note "22.8% GAAP Automotive Gross Margin".

So, I guess it will take at least another few quarters before we put to bed the whole "Tesla is going to crash and burn"  rhetoric.

But we are on the way.  It will take a few years to see the full story.  However any form of immediate crash and burn is out of the question.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4040 on: October 24, 2019, 12:09:57 AM »
It is also having a positive impact on the share price too.

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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4041 on: October 24, 2019, 12:46:13 AM »
Lets take the Big View if the lil brains going to claim I'm cherry picking...


In 2018 Tesla lost $2750 per car.

In 2019 Tesla losses per car will be between $5400 and $3000 per car.

(The above 2019 losses are based on 370k-430k cars produced, losses between $1.3B and $2B. I believe those are safe estimates.)


For the 70 IQs reading this: 2750 is less than 3000, and much less than 5400. (So what Neil is saying is nonsense. At least he is consistent.)

What was the loss per car in the last quarter compared to Q3 2018 ?

Do you still stand by your loss estimate of $1.3B+ for 2019?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4042 on: October 24, 2019, 01:44:54 AM »
Bankrupt Tesla is not bankrupt yet    ;)  ;D

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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4043 on: October 24, 2019, 02:08:54 AM »
Thats  Bankwupt.
Coming 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 for sure.

Tesla Model Y production to begin sooner than expected at Fremont factory
Quote
Tesla announced in its third-quarter Update Letter that Model Y production would begin sooner than expected in its Fremont, California factory. According to the electric car maker, the crossover SUV is now expected to enter production sometime in Summer 2020.

The Silicon Valley-based electric car maker states that Model Y equipment is being installed ahead of the vehicle’s planned production launch in 2020. Tesla stated in the Q3 update the company’s plans for Model Y production in its flagship factory in Fremont are moving along much faster than anticipated thanks to information learned from the initial fabrications of Tesla’s yet-to-be-released crossover at Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, China.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y-production-date-summer-2020/
« Last Edit: October 24, 2019, 06:07:40 AM by KiwiGriff »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4044 on: October 24, 2019, 02:23:11 AM »
Quote
Fremont
Model Y equipment installation is underway in advance of the planned launch next year. We are moving faster than initially planned, using learnings and efficiencies gained from our Gigafactory Shanghai factory design.
Capex per unit of capacity is forecasted to be about 50% lower than our current Model 3 production system in the United States.

Shanghai
We are already producing full vehicles on a trial basis, from body, to paint and to general assembly, at Gigafactory Shanghai. We have cleared initial milestones toward our manufacturing license and are working towards finalizing the license and meeting other governmental requirements before we begin ramping production and delivery of vehicles from Shanghai.
China is by far the largest market for mid-sized premium sedans. With Model 3 priced on par with gasoline powered mid-sized sedans (even before gas savings and other benefits), we believe China could become the biggest market for Model 3.

Europe
We are in the final stages of our site selection process. Our European Gigafactory is expected to produce both Model 3 and Model Y.

Autopilot & Full Self Driving
In September, we launched Smart Summon in the US which has been used more than one million times to date. This functionality allows car owners to summon their cars from up to 200 feet in a parking lot or driveway. Our neural network learning approach enables us to continue to iterate and improve functionality over time.
...
Vehicle Deliveries
Deliveries should increase sequentially and annually, with some expected fluctuations from seasonality. We are highly confident in exceeding 360,000 deliveries this year.
...
Energy
Energy storage deployment reached an all-time high of 477 MWh in Q3. Additionally, we have recently introduced Tesla Megapack, a 3 MWh battery pack, pre- assembled at the Gigafactory as a single unit. Such packaging allows for faster deployment and lower overall installation cost. First deliveries are planned to begin in Q4 2019.
We also launched a commercial solar configurator for small and medium enterprises, with standardized and transparent pricing. Solar deployments have started to grow sequentially once again. In Q3, we deployed 43 MW of solar, 48% more than in the prior quarter.
- Tesla Q3 2019 Update
Also, the image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4045 on: October 24, 2019, 02:50:36 AM »
Tesla Semi to enter limited production run in 2020 according to Q3 2019 Update
Quote
... Tesla has begun developing the liquid-cooled Megachargers responsible for supplying the Semi with power. The chargers are designed to give the Semi around 400 miles of range in about 30 minutes, making them an efficient and safe way to charge the massive, eco-friendly semi truck.

Tesla unveiled the Semi in November 2017 at a press conference, along with the soon-to-be-unveiled Tesla Pickup Truck. Musk had envisioned an electric Semi since the 2016 revision of the Master Plan. The Silicon Valley-based electric car maker announced in June 2019 the Semi would begin production by the end of 2020. After the Q1 earnings call, Musk stated there were a total of 2,000 pre-orders. The truck will come with Autopilot as a standard feature, allowing for semi-autonomous driving on highway roads.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-to-enter-limited-production-run-in-2020-according-to-q3-2019-update/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4046 on: October 24, 2019, 02:57:04 AM »
All this outlay and making a profit too.

Doomed.  Simply Doomed.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4047 on: October 24, 2019, 02:59:50 AM »
For those (like me) wondering how this surprise profitability was reached, comparing Q3 with Q2:
* For a similar automotive revenue (and without raising prices), automotive gross profit was greater by $205M.
* For a similar non-automotive revenue, non-automotive gross loss was lower by $65M.
* For a similar level of production and deliveries, operating expenses were lower by $160M.

Those are very impressive numbers. It means that stabilization of the business allowed a much higher efficiency in production and operation. Should revenue growth resume in Q4 or in 2020 and assuming costs remain under control, profits could rise substantially.

All in all, this Q moves the needle strongly towards Tesla success.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4048 on: October 24, 2019, 03:05:13 AM »
Tesla Q3 results are much better than analysts’ forecasts:
Quote
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) 10/22/19, 3:45 PM
Current FactSet consensus estimates for $TSLA Q3 ‘19:

Revenue: $6.425B
GAAP EPS: -$1.61
Non-GAAP EPS: -$0.46
Free Cash Flow: +$32M
Gross Margin: 15.83%
...
https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1186730250442592257
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4049 on: October 24, 2019, 03:57:11 AM »
Some more details from the Q3 summary:
* Highly confident in delivering more than 360,000 vehicles this year = greater than 104.5k in Q4.
* We are planning to produce limited volumes of Tesla Semi in 2020 = actual product in 2020, but real launch in 2021.
* We have recently introduced Tesla Megapack a 3 MWh battery pack, preassembled at the Gigafactory as a single unit. First deliveries are planned to begin in Q4 2019. (I was under the mistaken assumption that this was an already existing product).
* Margin was impacted in part due to fundamental improvements in our operating efficiency, including higher fixed cost absorption, reductions in manufacturing and material costs and continued improvements in vehicle quality and in part due to Smart Summon-related deferred revenue recognition, FX and other non-recurring items. (Meaning next Q could see somewhat lower margins).
* Energy generation and storage revenue increased Q over Q while cost of revenue decreased = $88M instead of $43M gross profit.
* Selling, general and administrative expenses were reduced by $51M Q over Q. R&D expenses increased by $10M.
* Restructuring and other expenses dropped from $117M to zero, this was a one-time drag on Q2, so a lot of operating improvement is a one-time correction.
* Accounts payable grew by $334M, explaining most of the growth in cash ($383M).