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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4700 on: December 12, 2019, 05:50:22 PM »
Profit....

Tesla to increase imported Model 3 prices in China: report
Quote
Tesla will reportedly up the prices of imported Model 3 vehicles in China starting in January 2020.
The move affects imported Model 3 Performance and Model 3 Long Range that is currently priced in China at roughly $72,400 and $62,500, respectively, according to a report by Reuters quoting unnamed sources.

The price increase comes amid news that Made-in-China (MIC) Model 3 first customer deliveries are imminent and this strategy can be seen as a way to encourage the greater Chinese electric vehicle market to purchase the more affordable and locally-assembled Model 3 units.

Tesla’s entry into China, the biggest automotive market in the world, serves as an acid test to CEO Elon Musk who wants to prove that the brand can sustain profitability in the global market.

In 2017, Chinese consumers bought 777,000 electric vehicles and these numbers jumped to  1.1 million in 2018, or roughly more than 55 percent of EVs sold across the globe. While the sales of electric cars in China dropped earlier this year, the sales of automobiles will rebound come 2020 as automakers including, Tesla, roll out new products and as more supportive government policies come into play. Local manufacturers see the entry of China as a catalyst to lure in more consumers to the electric vehicle segment.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-imported-china-price/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4701 on: December 12, 2019, 05:58:23 PM »
Here’s what the Bloomberg survey of Model 3 owners found:
Quote
Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 11/3/19, 2:23 PM
Tesla's Model 3 sets a new standard for battery degradation. We surveyed thousands of owners and found that range declines less than 1% for every 10,000 miles driven
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1191073538490417156
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4702 on: December 12, 2019, 06:27:27 PM »
Or could it be that if you can steer the choppy waters of Tesla every startup on the planet will want you..
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4703 on: December 12, 2019, 06:35:56 PM »
Here’s what the Bloomberg survey of Model 3 owners found:

The median line looks good and the series tapers the longer it goes on, but that is Way too many with 10% or more loss in under 10k miles.

The problem is that this chart doesn't show the age of the responses or whether any of the responses were on a trajectory to warranty replacement.
So we don't know if these were failing batteries, early adopter stats which were not repeated or what.

It is a graphic designed to look good but does not give us sufficient information to make a determination.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4704 on: December 12, 2019, 06:41:00 PM »
Seven cars and six battery changes though?  Granted quality is way up so this should not recur in anything like the frequency.

However, that being said, my wife drove her 806 diesel to 300,000 miles before I insisted that she changed it due to developing mechanical issues.  So a Tesla at 300k miles with relatively few issues is not bad.  The loss of 60 miles is a bigger issue. But, again, at 300k miles..
The real scam, in common with all vehicles and automakers , is the price charged for a computer chip.

"A flash memory chip is a common weak point, and costs $1,800 to replace."
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-electric-cars-surpass-300000-miles-in-shuttle-service/

You can buy a lot of computer hardware & software with eighteen hundred bucks. I wish I had it to spare.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4705 on: December 12, 2019, 06:58:17 PM »
Gigafactory 1 is only about 30% completed, but it is already one of the biggest buildings and production facilities in the world.

Berlin
Tesla Gigafactory 4 leaked plans reveal room for expansion
Quote
Musk said that Tesla will build “batteries, powertrains, and vehicles, starting with Model Y” at Gigafactory 4 in Germany.

Now new plans for Tesla Gigafactpry 4 have leaked showing a more detailed look at the planned production facility (via Bild):

Here are all the different sections (translated from German):
   1   Battery and drive manufacturing
   2   Manufacture of the seats
   3   Final assembly
   4   Paint shop
   5   Central supply building
   6   High-bay warehouse
   7   Wastewater treatment
   8   Body construction
   9   Plastics production, press shop, and foundry
   10   New railway station
   11   Test track
   12   Delivery and collection — a separate railway facility is being built for the transport
   13   Workplace parking
https://electrek.co/2019/12/12/tesla-gigafactory-4-leaked-plans-reveal-room-for-expansions/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4706 on: December 12, 2019, 07:14:13 PM »
Here’s what the Bloomberg survey of Model 3 owners found:

The median line looks good and the series tapers the longer it goes on, but that is Way too many with 10% or more loss in under 10k miles.

The problem is that this chart doesn't show the age of the responses or whether any of the responses were on a trajectory to warranty replacement.
So we don't know if these were failing batteries, early adopter stats which were not repeated or what.

It is a graphic designed to look good but does not give us sufficient information to make a determination.

A handful of extreme cases out of 5,000 survey respondents is no big deal.  They could have been abused, flooded, or involved in accidents.  Far more reported better than industry standard performance.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4707 on: December 12, 2019, 07:39:02 PM »
There is this German guy who drove 1mio km with a Tesla. He's on his third (some sources say second) battery now with almost 500k km and still has over 80% capacity.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4708 on: December 12, 2019, 08:45:39 PM »
I know, the problem is a lack of stats.

I want this to be a success. However a handful of serious problems can poison a relationship when you get to millions sold.

Tha Samsung note 7 sold and shipped 2.5 million. Less than 80 burst into flames.

I'm just concerned and will remain so until we get stats which show that these were early adopter issues which have mainly been fixed in later hardware and software fixes.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4709 on: December 12, 2019, 08:59:59 PM »
Well, the Note 7 had an actual construction flaw which caused it to blow up and more would have blown up if they hadn't recalled it.

On the other hand, battery technology is well understood. We use them since like forever.

Your scepticism is not justified IMHO, Neil.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4710 on: December 13, 2019, 10:18:35 AM »
I'm talking perceptions, not hard facts. Perceptions are far more subtle.

There were Note 7 users who were furious that their devices were removed and did not believe them dangerous.

Equally a perception that you run a 5% chance of getting a battery that loses power too fast can have a major impact.

We either need clear tracking of hundreds of thousands of owners which shows that the early degradation was due to evolving tech, or we need a warranty which is commensurate with accepted vehicle degradation over time.  Say 10% loss over 100,000 miles.

The problem will come down to owners and how they charge. Hence the 30% figure.

It is not a big thing right now. But the more that is made of these "average" charts where the error bars are so large, the more risk we run of setting perceptions which can be shattered. Which is always followed with a backlash.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4711 on: December 13, 2019, 01:43:25 PM »
I’d rather have a car with a million-mile powertrain, rather than a million-mile warranty.  Which seems to be the direction Tesla is headed.  Many crappy cars have great warranties, because, as Consumer Reports has noted, “You’ll need it.”
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4712 on: December 13, 2019, 02:40:45 PM »
It will bear watching.  I think the Model3 100k/120k warranty is sensible and in line with the market.

But the implications for people who regularly drive their vehicles over 100k miles have to be factored in.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4713 on: December 13, 2019, 05:40:37 PM »
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4714 on: December 13, 2019, 08:30:43 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4715 on: December 13, 2019, 09:26:53 PM »
Live discussion between Gali Russell, Rob Maurer and Matt Joyce, which took place the day after they attended the cybertruck reveal (and the LA Auto Show).  They bring up some good points, such as if Tesla sold only 100,000 of these a year, that would make the cybertruck the sixth or seventh most-sold pickup truck in the U.S.  No other vehicle maker would have dared come out with such a design.  And no other vehicle maker will, at least for a while.  Did Elon make this truck because he wants it on Mars?

Video:  Talking Tesla Cybertruck w/ Rob Maurer & Matt Joyce
#https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wmNI6vhSvM8

Podcast: Cybertruck Review With HyperChange Galli Russell and Matt Joyce (11.22.19) - TechCast Daily
https://techcastdaily.com/2019/11/23/cybertruck-review-with-hyperchange-and-matt-joyce-11-22-19/
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4716 on: December 13, 2019, 10:26:33 PM »
Tesla have changed the automobile design language.
Big screens and a lack of knobs, dials and buttons is already noticeable on new cars from legacy industry. 
Tesla or latest ford?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4717 on: December 14, 2019, 12:37:36 AM »
...
Tesla or latest ford?

Ford.  It has a Start/Stop button.  ;)  And a weird knob on the screen. ???  But you are right; a dash full of buttons and knobs is quickly becoming old-fashioned.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4718 on: December 14, 2019, 02:13:04 AM »
The Equus ferus caballus in the center of the wheel really gives it away.
 :P
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4719 on: December 14, 2019, 12:49:48 PM »
The Equus ferus caballus in the center of the wheel really gives it away.
 :P

That was my immediate thought too.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4720 on: December 14, 2019, 02:40:03 PM »
The Equus ferus caballus in the center of the wheel really gives it away.
 :P

Of course.  But what challenge is that? ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4721 on: December 14, 2019, 05:04:08 PM »
Tesla resumes solar panel installations on roof of Gigafactory 1
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-resumes-gigafactory-1-solar-panel-installations

——
Tesla adjusts Model 3 pricing in final 2019 push as EV tax credits come to an end
Quote
Tesla quietly updated the price of the Model 3 in its online design studio, increasing the price of the non-Performance variants by $500.

Price for the Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive Standard Range Plus now costs $39,990, from $39,490, while the Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive Long Range version now goes for $48,990, from $48490. The price of the Performance variant remains unchanged at $56,990.

The Model 3 price adjustment comes in the final weeks of Q4 and the full year. With expectations of setting record deliveries this quarter, making a price increase this late in the game could imply that the company is on track on meeting its 2019 full-year guidance of 360,000 units delivered.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-price-update-q4-2019-deliveries/

—-
Tesla Model 3 Deliveries May Double This Year
Annualized deliveries of Tesla's most affordable vehicle are approaching 300,000.
Quote
Musk told investors in an earnings call in July that he believes annualized demand for the Model 3 will rise to around 750,000 units per year. The Model Y crossover, which is slated for a 2020 launch and will be priced below the Model X SUV, could see demand in the order of 1.25 million units a year, he forecasts. 
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/14/tesla-model-3-deliveries-may-double-this-year.aspx

—-
Tesla Model Y production on track for 1,000 per week in mid-2020, analyst says after factory tour
https://electrek.co/2019/12/12/tesla-model-y-production-on-track-mid-2020-analyst-factory-tour/

Tesla (TSLA) shows strength amid analyst's 1k Model Y weekly production update
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-model-y-weekly-production-rate/

—-
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 12/12/19, 11:16 AM
Long waiting line again in China DMV with a lot of Tesla
pic: @xiaoteshushu
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1205159542864007168
Photo below.

—-
Giga 3 Shanghai ready to rock & roll. 
From:  https://twitter.com/jayinshanghai/status/1204908439513600000
Photo below.

—-
Rumor: SEC is investigating UBS.  Fact: UBS has suspended its (years-long always-bearish) rating on $TSLA.
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/ubs-reevaluates-bearish-tsla-stance-sec-investigation-rumors-spread

—-
Quote
Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) 12/12/19, 9:52 AM
Tesla short sellers are covering in mass taking big losses. In the past 30 days millions of shares have covered. Now only 28 mil shares shorted from 41 mil this summer. $tsla
https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1205138467887312896
Data below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4722 on: December 14, 2019, 07:52:34 PM »
Dec 13, 2019
Video below:  Alex Potter, analyst at Piper Jaffray, and Rob Maurer discuss Tesla's valuation, China potential, competition, risks, and investor theses.

Timestamps
 1:16 - Introduction
 3:43 - How long has Alex been bullish?
 5:22 - Product diligence
 6:17 - Why has Alex become more bullish?
10:15 - How high can market share go?
11:08 - Bear/bull theses
14:25 - Tesla in China
43:02 - Tesla's competition
52:48 - EV profitability
53:55 - EV credits/regulations
1:02:11 - Tesla’s upside
1:03:40 - Demand
1:07:20 - Price target
1:10:05 - Tesla Energy
1:11:54 - Autonomy
1:17:15 - Talent




In the podcast linked below, Rob goes into detail why the “China wants 25% NEVs by 2025”-type headlines are misleading.  The deep-dive on China New Energy Vehicle policies starts at 12:41
China's New Energy Vehicle Policies, Giga-Shanghai Rumors, Premium Connectivity - TechCast Daily
http://techcastdaily.com/2019/12/10/chinas-new-energy-vehicle-policies-giga-shanghai-rumors-premium-connectivity/
« Last Edit: December 14, 2019, 07:58:21 PM by Sigmetnow »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4723 on: December 15, 2019, 01:45:36 AM »
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4724 on: December 15, 2019, 01:48:04 AM »
Did Elon make this truck because he wants it on Mars?

You are so smart. It doesn't make sense for earth. But on Mars the cybertruck will dominate. Brilliant. Congrats.
big time oops

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4725 on: December 15, 2019, 12:26:25 PM »
Apart from people who need the load capacity of a truck, no truck makes sense. But middle class suburban dwellers like them. So there is a market.

Of course the EU is transitioning to electric so rapidly that they could sweep the entire US truck market away with them.

But it does not seem very patriotic to want that when you could support a home grown product.

It is not as if they are asking you to crowd fund it...
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4726 on: December 15, 2019, 04:13:48 PM »
Looking at the December 12 update from Jason Yang, it is clear that at least half of the parked cars have been shipped.  This is fairly easy as the mix was very predoinently dark vehicles, whereas the mix is almost 50% white now.

He even captures the loading of vehicles on the transporters.

Note that the Tesla trim is already going on the phase 2 building and far more concrete hard standing is going up at a fantastic rate.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4727 on: December 16, 2019, 03:38:09 AM »
Mercedes Delays U.S. Debut of Electric EQC After Jaguar and Audi SUVs Flop
December 15, 2019
      U.S. launch of EQC crossover gets pushed back a year to 2021
      Jaguar’s I-Pace, Audi’s e-tron trail Tesla’s years-old models

Quote
Mercedes-Benz is putting off the U.S. debut of its first electric vehicle by a year in the latest sign of just how difficult a time automakers are having replicating Tesla Inc.’s success.

Daimler AG’s luxury brand will start sales of the EQC crossover in 2021 rather than early next year. The German carmaker said in an emailed statement that it’s made the strategic decision to first support growing demand for the model in Europe, where deliveries began earlier this year.

The world’s top-seller of premium autos has touted the EQC and the series of battery-powered models it has planned under the EQ sub-brand as an answer both to Tesla and its traditional rivals. But the initial electric vehicles Jaguar and Audi introduced in the U.S. market this year have underwhelmed on the sales charts, failing to keep up even with Tesla’s years-old Model S and X.

Daimler has at least 10 purely battery-powered cars planned through 2022 to help meet tougher emissions rules around the globe. But while regulatory pressure is picking up, U.S. demand has been tepid for models other than Tesla’s lower-priced Model 3. Consumers continue to harbor concerns about limited driving range, long charging times and high sticker prices.

Jaguar has sold 2,418 I-Pace SUVs in the U.S. this year through November, while Audi has delivered 4,623 e-tron crossovers, according to InsideEVs. By contrast, the website estimates that Tesla has sold about 111,650 Model 3 sedans.


Luxury-car makers’ biggest retailers are divided over the outlook for electric cars in the U.S. In February, the president of Sonic Automotive Inc., the fifth-largest U.S. dealership group in the country, wondered aloud on an earnings call whether Tesla had built a cult following for its cars and said the brand needed to be taken seriously by BMW and others.

But in October, Roger Penske, the chief executive officer of Penske Automotive Group Inc., said the I-Pace hasn’t sold as expected and that consumers have been canceling orders for the e-tron.

“They’re expensive, and everyone has range anxiety, and to me, what’s going to be the residual value at the end?” Penske said during an earnings call. “The growth is going to be slow.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-12-13/mercedes-delays-electric-debut-after-jaguar-and-audi-suvs-flop
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4728 on: December 16, 2019, 06:51:13 AM »
Any second now we will get the usual Musk haters commenting on the frauds at Porsche, Mercedes and Audi for promising so much and failing to deliver on time or to spec.
Any second........

 
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4729 on: December 16, 2019, 09:55:46 AM »
Don't hold your breath..
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4730 on: December 16, 2019, 02:20:53 PM »
Any second now we will get the usual Musk haters commenting on the frauds at Porsche, Mercedes and Audi for promising so much and failing to deliver on time or to spec.
Any second........

And TSLAQ were adamant that OEMs, with all their existing factories and decades of mass manufacturing and sales expertise, would simply crush Tesla overnight with massive volumes of quality EVs (no panel gaps!) — whenever they wanted!  ::)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4731 on: December 16, 2019, 03:23:57 PM »
They can do it anytime they want: they just don't want to do it yet. ("We want to give Tesla 5 more years of [pseudo-]dominance - just for fun's sake - then we'll blow them out of the water.") [\sarc]
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4732 on: December 16, 2019, 04:49:16 PM »
Made-In-China Model 3 Reservation Holders Receive Delivery Notices


https://insideevs.com/news/388061/made-in-china-model-3-delivery-notices/amp/

Slowly but surely, progress continues.

Mud field to actual deliveries inside 1 year.

Or have they been sneaking USA made M3's into the factory in these containers?

I'm sure some conspiracy or other will give us that one.

Interesting point.  Tesla potential capacity just hit 1M per year.  Actual may differ, but the difference is ramping, not building.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4733 on: December 16, 2019, 05:16:31 PM »
Something changed. Tesla stock is bumping along just under 380 having rocketed up after opening.

I can't see it being the Credit Suisse commendation on battery tech.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4734 on: December 16, 2019, 05:22:27 PM »
Tesla shares are trading higher on reports the U.S. Congress is in talks to reinstate tax extenders that will benefit electric car manufacturers.


Dec 16, 2019 10:09a ETBenzinga Stock Analysis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4735 on: December 16, 2019, 05:39:51 PM »
Everyone please take a moment and have a little empathy with GSY. Bad day for them. Very bad day.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4736 on: December 16, 2019, 06:05:02 PM »
I just saw the report from electret.

GSY's day just got worse as the stock has broken 382, it peaked at .82 but is bumping around again

I expect it will close lower with profits taken.  But it is fun watching and we haven't even got to Q4 results.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4737 on: December 16, 2019, 06:32:49 PM »
Wall Street bear Dan Levy concedes Tesla is way ahead of others in one key area of electric vehicles
Quote
"Tesla is likely ahead of others on batteries – the core of the electric powertrain," Levy said.
Levy noted that last year Tesla had a total 44 gigawatt hours (GWh) of battery capacity, with 35 GWh from its Nevada Gigafactory and 9 GWh imported from Panasonic. According to Levy, that's so far ahead of the industry that it is just shy of the 46 GWh of all other automakers in the world combined.   GWh is a unit that measures energy output and represents 1 billion watt hours.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/16/credit-suisse-tesla-way-ahead-in-batteries-for-electric-vehicles.html

——
Referring to a German article: a local water supplier for Giga 4 Berlin cites 3 phases for the factory build-out: 250K cars per year;  500K; and 750K.

Tesla Gigafactory 4 Output to Reach as High as 750K Vehicles a Year: Report
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-gigafactory-4-output-to-reach-as-high-as-750k-vehicles-a-year

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4738 on: December 16, 2019, 06:43:54 PM »
Made-In-China Model 3 Reservation Holders Receive Delivery Notices

https://insideevs.com/news/388061/made-in-china-model-3-delivery-notices/amp/
...

I read a comment somewhere that delivering a small number of MIC cars in Q4 would look bad because of what the ‘expense per car’ amount would look like on the balance sheet.  Is that just TSLAQ talking?
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4739 on: December 16, 2019, 07:07:40 PM »
Crandles could answer this better but my take is that it depends on how it is presented financially.

The factory has been funded out of debt, the batteries were partially funded out of Q3 shipments and the more cars they make, the more goes on inventory.  So it is not as if making the cars, but not shipping the cars, will cost the finances the total cost of the vehicle.  It will hit cash flow though as the cash will be locked up in stock which has not been delivered.

The more they make in 2019, the better the situation in Q1 2020, but the worse the cash flow in Q4 2019.

In the end it depends how well they are doing overall as to how it reflects in profits and cash flow.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4740 on: December 16, 2019, 07:11:41 PM »
Made-In-China Model 3 Reservation Holders Receive Delivery Notices

https://insideevs.com/news/388061/made-in-china-model-3-delivery-notices/amp/
...

I read a comment somewhere that delivering a small number of MIC cars in Q4 would look bad because of what the ‘expense per car’ amount would look like on the balance sheet.  Is that just TSLAQ talking?

That wouldn't be on the balance sheet so a little confused.

Now that the factory is up and running, the expenses will hit the P&L account regardless of how many cars are sold. When the factory is brought into use depreciation will start on the capitalised costs.

So it is possible results will look poor, but it wouldn't be better by not selling any MIC cars.

I am not sure how significant the extra expenses will be. I guess wait til late Jan to see.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4741 on: December 16, 2019, 09:04:24 PM »
Quote
Mud field to actual deliveries inside 1 year. 
Hats off to Tesla for this achievement. I would never have imagined that this could happen. When dates were thrown around I was certain this was another case of "Elon time".

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4742 on: December 16, 2019, 10:12:33 PM »
$TSLA closed at $381.50   +23.11   +6.45%

Tesla’s stock zooms toward two-year high on China factory optimism
Quote
Tesla Inc. shares rallied more than 6% on Monday, on track for their best close since September 2017 and hovering at their best-ever finish. The stock TSLA, +6.45% was the best performer Monday on the Nasdaq, and was among the top 10 most active.

Monday’s gains, the largest one-day percentage increase since late October, put the stock at a 15% advance for the year, about half the gains for the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.71% but an impressive finish after a losing first half of the year.

Tesla hit a record closing high of $385 on Sept. 18, 2017.

Analysts at Oppenheimer on Monday highlighted photos of Tesla vehicles produced in the under-construction China factory and said that “expectations for a relatively smooth ramp” for the Shanghai facility are increasing.

See also: Tesla Model 3 named ‘best electric car’ by Edmunds

Tesla has learned ”important lessons” from the production ramps for its Model S, Model X and Model 3 and “is implementing best practices in the new factory,” the analysts said in a note. In the near term “it appears [Tesla] is tracking toward being able to achieve its target for delivering 360k vehicles” for the year, they said. “We note that [Tesla’s] deliveries are highly concentrated toward the end of the quarter and execution over the next two weeks will be critical for 4Q19 results.”

Tesla is expected to report fourth-quarter deliveries in early January and fourth-quarter results likely in February.

Related: Jim Chanos on Tesla: ‘We are still bears’

The company surprised markets in October when it reported a surprise GAAP and adjusted profit for the third quarter, kicking off the late-year gains for the shares, which include a 31% advance for October.

Tesla is fresh from showing off its “Cybertruck,” and Chief Executive Elon Musk has said the pickup truck already had drawn about 250,000 preorders, which entail a $100 refundable deposit.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-zooms-to-best-in-two-years-on-china-factory-optimism-2019-12-16
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4743 on: December 16, 2019, 11:51:56 PM »
Spacex uses Imperial components, while Tesla EV's use metric Si components.


https://www.quora.com/Do-Tesla-and-SpaceX-engineers-use-US-Customary-units-or-Metric-units


Any thoughts on why Spacex is using Imperial parts while NASA went full Si back in 2007?


https://www.space.com/3332-nasa-finally-metric.html


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Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4744 on: December 17, 2019, 09:32:03 AM »
Spacex uses Imperial components, while Tesla EV's use metric Si components.


https://www.quora.com/Do-Tesla-and-SpaceX-engineers-use-US-Customary-units-or-Metric-units


Any thoughts on why Spacex is using Imperial parts while NASA went full Si back in 2007?


https://www.space.com/3332-nasa-finally-metric.html


Saving money by purchasing over the counter parts isn't acceptable if human lives are put at risk.
Terry

Maybe your post belongs in the SpaceX thread ?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2582.msg240839.html#msg240839
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4745 on: December 17, 2019, 01:54:55 PM »
In the automotive space, metric is pervasive although some things are still measured in inches (witness the bemused Swede's when we tried to match my UK galaxy wheels).

NASA is Imperial. Which, no doubt, drives the Spacex use of these dimensions as Spacex cooperate with NASA a lot.

Given that Musk will have grown up with metric and doesn't use more expensive equivalents, you can be sure that the Spacex decision is rooted in NASA.

This is relevant to this thread in that it highlights the decisions made in Tesla to be an international manufacturer.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4746 on: December 17, 2019, 02:05:44 PM »
Giga 4 Berlin  “Gigafabrik”

Quote
#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 12/16/19, 1:49 PM
Currently from the "rbb Abendschau" Tesla can already start building before the end of the approval procedure, as there is "great public interest".
The forest is probably no longer a problem, as it is designated as a commercial forest in the development plan.

Credit: rbb
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1206647501526380544
Aerial photo at the link.

Quote
#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 12/14/19, 5:00 AM
a brief summary of the planning phase for #gigafactory4:
- The 300 hectare site was sold to @Tesla for an unknown amount.
- The country's finance committee still has to agree on Dec. 18.
- Water supply is secured for the first stage (250,000 cars per year).
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1205789672552710145
- Statement from the mayor, Arne Christiani, from Grünheide: "the forest is a pine forest ready for harvesting, of inferior quality". So there should be no major actions to be expected from the environmentalists...
- District Administrator, Rolf Lindemann is confident, he had invited to a press conference. "We wanted to send a signal that we're still on the right track." Tesla was a stroke of luck, a compliment to the region. "We do not want to disappoint the trust in us.

Auto – Furstenwalde / Spree – Tesla: District Administrator expects planning documents shortly – Economy
December 16, 2019
Quote
In connection with the district reform in 2012, population forecasts were pointed downwards, the district administrator explained. With the Tesla settlement project, an effective counter-accent was set to give this region and especially the next generation a future, said Lindemann. The district's clear mandate now is to ensure that the basic infrastructure is designed in such a way that the employees concerned can live close to the production site.

The results of the steering group are to be forwarded to the Tesla task force of the state government. This meets for the second time this Tuesday.

When asked whether the district could manage Tesla's ambitious schedule, Lindemann said that the pressure was on. On the other hand, the region has been facing constant need for adjustment for 30 years and coped well: "If we all pull together, we can also achieve good results
https://www.en24.news/2019/12/auto-furstenwalde-spree-tesla-district-administrator-expects-planning-documents-shortly-economy.html

Tesla Gigafactory 4 Third Phase — 750,000 Car Capacity
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/14/tesla-gigafactory-4-third-phase-750000-car-capacity/
About those trees and the water supply.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4747 on: December 17, 2019, 02:12:06 PM »
In the automotive space, metric is pervasive although some things are still measured in inches (witness the bemused Swede's when we tried to match my UK galaxy wheels).

NASA is Imperial. Which, no doubt, drives the Spacex use of these dimensions as Spacex cooperate with NASA a lot.

Given that Musk will have grown up with metric and doesn't use more expensive equivalents, you can be sure that the Spacex decision is rooted in NASA.
Note that the article is dated from 2007
NASA Finally goes Metric!
https://www.space.com/3332-nasa-finally-metric.html
Quote
This is relevant to this thread in that it highlights the decisions made in Tesla to be an international manufacturer.


So it seems unlikely that NASA pulled SPACEX in that direction.
The fact that Musk confirmed that CyberTruck & SPACEX could share parts to bring down costs make this a relevant discussion for this thread.
Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4748 on: December 17, 2019, 02:48:32 PM »
And NASA's own publication from 2014 states.

Quote
Although use of SI in the U.S. is increasing, aerospace is recognized as one area where adoption will be difficult, due to the long-standing use of the U.S.-based "inch-pound" system for aircraft.

Nevertheless, space programs do make significant use of SI, particularly for science measurement, and increasingly for hardware and operations, particularly as international cooperation in space increases.

https://www.nasa.gov/offices/oce/functions/standards/isu.html

Which is quite different from NASA changing to SI.

I remember when the UK scientists returned calculations to NASA and the lander bounced off. When challenged, the Scientists said "they were correct, what did you do?".  It turned out that NASA assumed that because the UK is now SI, we returned metric calculations and "converted" them before use.

It was at this point that the Scientists reminded NASA that Imperial is a British measurement from the British Empire and that they were well aware NASA used Imperial measurements.

As NASA has previously stated, changing to SI is extremely expensive and half the Space station is measured on Imperial sizes.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4749 on: December 17, 2019, 02:55:54 PM »
Now back to tesla.

Interesting analysis on the stock peak.

Quote
Let me list some reasons why Tesla may have gone up today:

Price momentum in Tesla stock has been building for months. Tesla stock has more than doubled since the low prices it was at in June. Many times, upward price momentum leads to more price momentum as speculators pile in. Vicious moves down lead to equally vicious moves up afterwards in a “bear trap.”


The general market is trending higher. As a sign, that’s a good environment for individual stocks to move higher.


Tesla Gigafactory 3 (GF3) is complete and now producing cars for the Chinese market. There must be some investors still in shock that Tesla pulled off the impossible and built a working factory in a year, and others who are just starting to process it and work this into their models or expectations.


The Porsche Taycan came in with an EPA range of 201 miles. This Porsche was presumed to be major competition to the Tesla Model S. With the much lower range and higher price, many are re-evaluating that narrative. There are no potential “Tesla Killers” coming until 2021, and likely none at all. Markets like it when companies don’t have competition.


Tesla Model 3 demand is steady and rising. There was the fear that once the initial backlog was finished sales would tank. Nope.


The market is realizing Model Y has more potential than Model 3. We are getting closer to the Y launching. It will be a big hit.


The Tesla Cybertruck, for all its zaniness, pulled down a quarter of a million known reservations/pre-orders. That’s a big deal, again shocking the market on what the company is worth.


Tesla said GF3 would be finished in less than a year, and it was. When companies do what they say they will, trust between investors and the company grows. Tesla met its ambitious — and many claimed impossible — goal.


Solar Roof V3 and Tesla Energy are poised for major growth. It’s simple math to show a smaller base will grow faster than a larger base for the same amount of growth. Now that the company is on steadier footing, Tesla can devote more resources to growing the smaller Energy division.


The Q3 earnings call and positive cash flow show Tesla bears are rapidly running out of excuses.
Investors are buying before release of Q4 delivery numbers in two weeks. There is definitely a “buy the rumor, sell the news” cycle to Tesla delivery numbers. Informal sampling shows Q4 will have very good production and delivery numbers, heightening this trend.


The profits and cashflow in Q4 ensure Tesla is added to the S&P500. This should serve to broaden the investor base and decrease volatility.


The market believed the EV credit would be expanded for Tesla and some others. After-hours results show it wasn’t and Tesla stock has given up some gains.

http://investrecords.com/2019/12/17/tesla-stock-tsla-closes-at-new-52-week-high-what-caused-this-does-it-matter/

That is quite a long list.
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