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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5000 on: January 11, 2020, 07:38:22 PM »
This is correct.

If it was to nature, 95% of German forest population would be beech.
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nanning

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5001 on: January 11, 2020, 08:03:24 PM »
I ask myself, why do I keep posting here?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5002 on: January 11, 2020, 08:49:24 PM »
Quote
K10 ✨ (@Kristennetten) 1/10/20, 1:55 PM
@Tesla Berlin Giga4 is hiring!
https://twitter.com/kristennetten/status/1215708694408597504
Video at the link scrolls through a list of 39 jobs at Tesla Berlin.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/11/20, 1:32 PM
Tesla did not list this many positions for Giga Shanghai until Nov’18, so this development supports my view that Giga Berlin trial production will start in Q1’21
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1216065458933248001
   
Will Fealey (@WillFealey) 1/10/20, 2:32 PM
Quick searchable list for anyone interested: Fancy a job with Tesla in Berlin? All these available Berlin Gigafactory positions are live:

Structural Engineering Lead
Technical Program Manager, Paint.
Structural Design Engineering Internship
Manufacturing Engineering Manager

Technical Program Manager
Construction Project Manager
Mechanical Engineering Lead
Document Control Lead
Senior Buyer - Mechanical & Pipe
Cost Controls Specialist.
Senior Buyer - Structural & Civil.
Senior Buyer - Electrical.
Senior Buyer MEP Equipment

Body Shop Staff Manufacturing Engineer.
Senior Construction Operations Manager.
Construction QA/QC Manager
Maintenance & Equipment Engineering Mgr Paint
Body Shop Operations Senior Manager
Body Shop Staff Manufacturing Engineer
Factory Security Manager

Electrical Design Engineering Lead
Planning & Schedule Lead
Civil Engineering Lead
Body Shop Manufacturing Engineer
Construction Project Management Internship
Senior Counsel Compliance
Body Shop Manufacturing Engineer
Senior Manager Paint Engineering
Architectural Internship

Recruitment Operations Coordinator (German, Polish & English)
Recruitment Operations Coordinator (German & English)
https://twitter.com/willfealey/status/1215717980841168897
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5003 on: January 11, 2020, 10:38:11 PM »
If it was to nature, 95% of German forest population would be beech.

are you accounting for climate change in that calculation?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5004 on: January 12, 2020, 12:14:03 AM »
If it was to nature, 95% of German forest population would be beech.

are you accounting for climate change in that calculation?
95% ? The Oak?
Quote
Where it grows
The pedunculate oak is commonly found arcross most of Europe, except for its coldest and hottest zones. It grows at sea level in the northern range and up to 1 300 m above sea level in the Alps. This oak is typically one of the dominant tree species in temperate deciduous mixed forests in Europe.
Did you know?
The oak was a sacred tree to the Greeks, Germans, Slavs and Celts, and this is why the oak frequently features in place names, and as part of national or regional symbols; e.g. it has appeared on German, Croatian and British coins, and in Bulgaria’s coat of arms.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fagus_sylvatica
Fagus sylvatica, the European beech or common beech, is a deciduous tree belonging to the beech family Fagaceae.

Distribution and habitat

Quote
The natural range extends from southern Sweden to northern Sicily,[4] west to France, southern England, northern Portugal, central Spain, and east to northwest Turkey, where it intergrades with the oriental beech (Fagus orientalis), which replaces it further east. In the Balkans, it shows some hybridisation with oriental beech; these hybrid trees are named Fagus × taurica Popl. [Fagus moesiaca (Domin, Maly) Czecz.]. In the southern part of its range around the Mediterranean, it grows only in mountain forests, at 600–1,800 m (1,969–5,906 ft) altitude.

Although often regarded as native in southern England, recent evidence suggests that F. sylvatica did not arrive in England until about 4000 BC, or 2,000 years after the English Channel formed after the ice ages; it could have been an early introduction by Stone age humans, who used the nuts for food.[5] The beech is classified as a native in the south of England and as a non-native in the north where it is often removed from 'native' woods.[6] Localised pollen records have been recorded in the North of England from the Iron Age by Sir Harry Godwin. Changing climatic conditions may put beech populations in southern England under increased stress and while it may not be possible to maintain the current levels of beech in some sites it is thought that conditions for beech in north-west England will remain favourable or even improve. It is often planted in Britain. Similarly, the nature of Norwegian beech populations is subject to debate. If native, they would represent the northern range of the species. However, molecular genetic analyses support the hypothesis that these populations represent intentional introduction from Denmark before and during the Viking Age.[7] However, the beech in Vestfold and at Seim north of Bergen in Norway is now spreading naturally and regarded as native.[8]

Though not demanding of its soil type, the European beech has several significant requirements: a humid atmosphere (precipitation well distributed throughout the year and frequent fogs) and well-drained soil (it cannot handle excessive stagnant water). It prefers moderately fertile ground, calcified or lightly acidic, therefore it is found more often on the side of a hill than at the bottom of a clayey basin. It tolerates rigorous winter cold, but is sensitive to spring frost. In Norway's oceanic climate planted trees grow well as far north as Trondheim. In Sweden, beech trees do not grow as far north as in Norway.

https://www.bmel.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/Publications/ForestsInGermany-BWI.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
Quote
German forests are diverse and provide habitats for many animal and plant species. The spruce, pine, beech and oak are the most frequent tree species in Germany. Deciduous trees, mixed forests and the structure of the crown canopy have increased in size. The forests contain approximately 93 million trees with ecologically significant tree attributes
« Last Edit: January 12, 2020, 12:25:58 AM by gerontocrat »
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5005 on: January 12, 2020, 07:29:15 AM »
German forests are diverse and provide habitats for many animal and plant species. The spruce, pine, beech and oak are the most frequent tree species in Germany.

This stuff is planted by humans. Again, if you leave it to nature, Germany will be majority beech. This article sais two thirds. I've heard the 95% figure before which seems and overstatement.

Link >> https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.unesco.de%2Fkultur-und-natur%2Fwelterbe%2Fwelterbe-deutschland%2Falte-buchenwaelder-der-karpaten

And no, this is not accounting for climate change. This is not a topic which is scientifically researched.

PS: Oh right, the article sais thirds of area would be covered by forest! And this forrest would be beech then. This makes sense.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2020, 07:42:35 AM by blumenkraft »
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5006 on: January 12, 2020, 07:41:26 AM »
BTW here is an awesome podcast talking about this exact topic. (in German though)

OmegaTau Podcast 325 – Der Wald im Nationalpark Hainich
Link >> https://omegataupodcast.net/325-der-wald-im-nationalpark-hainich/
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5007 on: January 12, 2020, 07:46:13 AM »
Back on topic.

Quote
For context, with 60 units, @Tesla sold more cars to @MercedesBenz & @BMW, than the 55 EQC @MercedesBenz sold in total in Germany 🇩🇪 in 2019 🤣

Link >> https://twitter.com/teslastars/status/1216108965437812736?s=21
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5008 on: January 12, 2020, 08:26:47 AM »
Those who aren't borrowing on Tesla shares have nothing to fear when the bubble bursts.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5009 on: January 12, 2020, 04:09:11 PM »
Those who aren't borrowing on Tesla shares have nothing to fear when the bubble bursts.
Terry

Yet even those who haven’t invested in $TSLA or Tesla products benefit from cleaner air, cleaner energy, safer vehicles on the roads, and more stable power grids. 
You’re welcome!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5010 on: January 12, 2020, 04:27:20 PM »
Quote
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) 1/10/20, 4:38 PM
$TSLA short interest for 12/31/19 published.

Short interest declined by 1.2M shares (-5%) from 12/13 to 12/31; stock price rose from $358.39 to $418.33 (+17%). Next update 01/27/20 for 01/15/20 date.

12/31: 26.3M
12/13: 27.5M
11/29: 28.7M
11/15: 30.6M
10/31: 31.8M
10/15: 37.2M
https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1215749862098198529

——
How many cars does Tesla anticipate Giga Shanghai will produce in Q1?
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/11/20, 2:26 PM
Riddle me this: How is @Tesla still estimating delivery dates for new MIC orders to Q1'20? The backlog must be in the tens of thousands since preorders started in May'19
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1216078924679086080
Image below.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5011 on: January 12, 2020, 05:28:38 PM »
Did you base this on something factual or just opinions and prejudice?

Is it so impossible that I can be Native British but know something about Germany?

The smallest part is that I passed all of my driving tests there.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5012 on: January 12, 2020, 05:36:21 PM »

How many cars does Tesla anticipate Giga Shanghai will produce in Q1?

In order to have an accurate forecast, you have to hlfactor in Chenese New Year.  Although those vehicles manufactured in Q4 2019 will help.

BTW I saw an update video for Giga3.  The most notable thing, for me, was the huge queue of busses ready to take the staff home from a shift.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5013 on: January 12, 2020, 06:20:34 PM »
Did you base this on something factual or just opinions and prejudice?

Is it so impossible that I can be Native British but know something about Germany?

The smallest part is that I passed all of my driving tests there.

Tesla began selling the Model S in Europe in 2013.  The company has stores and service centers all over.  To suggest that they are not extremely well versed in work rules and norms, including the Sunday truck ban, makes absolutely no sense.

On Sundays they may ship from GF4 by rail, and load up car carriers in their huge logistics lot, ready to roll at 22:00.
Light trucks with a gross weight of under 7.5 tons are allowed on the roads on Sunday — Tesla uses vehicles such as this to deliver cars directly to new owners near Fremont, and to delivery centers in Beijing.


The work shift information I posted above is public information.  Yet people are not protesting in the streets, and unions are not making headlines refusing to even consider such plans.  Tesla spent years checking out different possible work sites, and months drawing up the contract with Grünheide officials.  Everybody knows!
Quote
Officials in Brandenburg described the negotiations with Musk as an emotional roller-coaster ride, with the politicians struggling to read the billionaire’s intentions. But by last week, things were looking up. After Musk arrived in Berlin, he toured the location where the factory would sit, and he took a local train back to central Berlin to try for himself how long the commute might take.

Fresh from his experience building a factory in China, Musk had a demand that was as clear as it was hard to execute for notoriously bureaucratic Germans: to build the site as swiftly as the one in Shanghai, according to Brandenburg’s economy minister, Joerg Steinbach. That caused considerable consternation among officials still chafing from the new-airport debacle.

“There was very intense competition in recent months among different European nations,” Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told reporters on Wednesday in Berlin. “It’s an important and positive development that Germany was chosen.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-11-13/elon-musk-s-german-factory-started-with-love-letter-from-berlin

Quote
Olivier Höbel, head of the IG Metall union that represents autoworkers in Berlin, Brandenburg, and Saxony, says, “The labor laws are distinctly different here.” But he was quick to add the union will work with Tesla “to create the perfect climate that the project becomes a full success.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/28/teslas-long-winding-road-from-palo-alto-to-grunheide/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5014 on: January 12, 2020, 06:49:17 PM »
Certainly things are changing in Germany. For instance they lost a case in the CJEU when trying to block cross EU trade on a Sunday because German trucks were not allowed on the roads.

But it comes down to culture and regions and states.  For instance, when our friends 70th birthday party was over we stayed to help clean up.  The problem being that putting bottles in the bottle bank was banned from Saturday  10pm to Monday morning.  The hall had to be cleared by mid day Sunday...

It is not the big things that trip you up, it is the 1,000 and 1 little things.

You say that Tesla has been selling these cars since 2013, yes it has.  It has been shipping from its Netherlands final assembly plant with Netherlands trucks, to other places in the EU. Exactly the case both Germany and France lost.

It is all very good saying that what they have been doing, to date, is relative to having a manufacturing location in another EU country.  But it is not a direct correlation. The Netherlands has Sunday shopping with Supermarkets open for extended hours.  France and Germany do NOT.

In Reading up on this I found that Berlin is leading the liberalisation of these things.  So it perhaps goes a long way to explaining the location chosen.

We shall see.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5015 on: January 12, 2020, 07:21:34 PM »
A shitton of people are living in Berlin. A huge pool with well-educated people are there to find. If you want to attract talent from the whole of Germany or even Europe, you chose Berlin because it is the biggest, hippest, most dynamic city in Germany. It is more likely people would move to Berlin, then say Bremen (even though there you would have a harbour around the corner - huge logistical advantage). The logistical advantage for Berlin is that it's in the heart of Europe and ancillary industries are in reach.

I think those arguments had more influence on the choice of the location than the Sunday truck ban. You can easily work around that, even with a 24/7 production running.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5016 on: January 12, 2020, 08:37:55 PM »
Their reasons for protesting are unknown, but:
Quote
#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 1/12/20, 5:25 AM
⚡⚡First resistance stirs⚡⚡
Today on Jan 12th about 40 protesters gathered at the station Fangschleuse to protest against #Gigafactory4.
Picture source: @gigafactory_4. Thanks for the info, Albrecht.
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1216305156142387200
Photo below.

My favorite Twitter comment:
Quote
Kay Glüse (@GluseKay) 1/12/20, 6:04 AM
Wollen den Umstieg auf eine saubere Technologie verhindern und nennen sich Umweltschützer...genau mein Humor.
https://twitter.com/glusekay/status/1216315055563771904
‘Want to prevent the switch to clean technology and call themselves environmentalists... exactly my humour.”
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5017 on: January 12, 2020, 09:00:29 PM »
Did you base this on something factual or just opinions and prejudice?

Is it so impossible that I can be Native British but know something about Germany?

The smallest part is that I passed all of my driving tests there.
I’m not judging your nationality. I honestly don’t care where you’re from.

Your idea that it’s difficult to run a car factory in Germany just doesn’t make sense.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5018 on: January 12, 2020, 11:43:05 PM »

Your idea that it’s difficult to run a car factory in Germany just doesn’t make sense.

No you were making a judgement about what I know about it.

I have made a career of running projects, mainly in mainland Europe, for most of the last 20 years. I live, mostly, in France.

I'm telling you that US company expectations for employment and workforce are more likely to be a match in China than in the EU.  With the probable exception of the UK as we have had to put up with over 40 years of whinging about our "poor" working conditions for our factory workers.

Whilst I expect Tesla will work very hard at it, the differences between Grohman and a Tesla car plant are not small.

You might wish to study the movements in the Automotive manufacturing industry in Germany.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/21/news/companies/volkswagen-germany-workers-salary-wages-rise/index.html

Or the working time study done.  Check the German (D),  plants against the rest. For monthly working hours.

https://www.iat.eu/aktuell/veroeff/am/lehndorff00de.pdf

Granted the thousands of workers currently losing their jobs will help Tesla, but you can clearly see that weekend working is less of a DE norm.

The places which run extended shifts and longer hours and weekend working are Poland and Spain.

Again, you need to know the differences between EU countries.

I am happy to see it work; God knows Germany is going to need the Automotive jobs as the billions run like water in the attempt to avoid EU CO2 fines.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5019 on: January 12, 2020, 11:47:32 PM »

I think those arguments had more influence on the choice of the location than the Sunday truck ban. You can easily work around that, even with a 24/7 production running.

I don't disagree.  But consider that Fremont is working hard, 24x7, to make 360k vehicles a year.

If Berlin is going to make 500k, then things are going to have to go smoothly.  Workarounds do not fall into the "smooth category"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5020 on: January 12, 2020, 11:49:44 PM »
Did you base this on something factual or just opinions and prejudice?

Is it so impossible that I can be Native British but know something about Germany?

The smallest part is that I passed all of my driving tests there.
I’m not judging your nationality. I honestly don’t care where you’re from.

Your idea that it’s difficult to run a car factory in Germany just doesn’t make sense.
The technical competence of all grades of the German workforce is very high, which is a huge strength.

On the other hand....

- Musk has had many a punchup back in the USA with employees who wanted to increase the role of trade unions. The Trade Unions in Germany have to be treated with respect.
- US employers have more rights and powers and employees much less than is the case in Germany.
- The US Supreme Court is much less liable to rule in favour of workers complaints against employers than the European Court of Justice.

It is a very different culture. That may cause some problems. However, at the moment Tesla seems to have done a good job of dong their homework as can be seen from their filings about the factory.

And while the Tesla Bears will shout and scream about any delays in progressing the project, who really gives a damn if production starts one or two quarters late in 2021? Just means a few more  shiploads from the USA (& China?) to feed the EU market (to maximise all that freebie loot coming from EU automotive laggard EV manufacturers. Talk about money for nothing.)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5021 on: January 12, 2020, 11:59:09 PM »
Giga 4 has to be able to produce cars sat a price and volume that makes sense.  Giga4 will be an engine for growth and will help fund more factories.

I predict, this early, that future Tesla EU manufacturing facilities won't be in Germany...

It doesn't matter if Giga4 is late by a quarter or two.  However those original predictions of 2-3 years were made with a real basis in fact. The fact that China is nothing like those other builds those estimates were made from is a very important point.  Because Germany is like that.

I would love to see Tesla complete in 1 year and ramp up to 500k run rate 6 months after.

If it happens I will be more than impressed with Tesla.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5022 on: January 13, 2020, 12:51:21 AM »
Their reasons for protesting are unknown, but:
Quote
#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 1/12/20, 5:25 AM
⚡⚡First resistance stirs⚡⚡
Today on Jan 12th about 40 protesters gathered at the station Fangschleuse to protest against #Gigafactory4. ...

Update:
Quote
#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 1/12/20, 11:14 AM
About 50 people protested against Tesla on Sunday. They gathered them at noon near the planned factory site.
They criticized too little citizen participation .... There are fears that the drinking water supply could be endangered. ...
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1216392980724101124
Photo and video (in German) at the link.

Seeing that Tesla enthusiasts were able to attend local government meetings and obtain detailed information about the factory’s environmental impact studies... it would seem that these folks are not terribly motivated — or, that they are simply foot soldiers for anti-Tesla groups.  No surprise, if so.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5023 on: January 13, 2020, 01:08:37 AM »
Germany does rely on groundwater for a lot of the drinking supply and Germany is covered with warnings for vehicles carrying hazardous materials.



https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wasserschutzgebiet

A concern is OK, they have a right, but the first port of call should be the planning and environmental impact assessment. But it is all too easy just to say No, then there will not be a problem.

I don't know if there are any elections locally any time soon but I would expect the Greens to do better at the next one.

Perhaps my comments about protests about noise pollution for the local wildlife sound a bit more viable? If they haven't read the environmental impact assessment, you can be sure they are unaware that the plant intends to operate 24x7.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5024 on: January 13, 2020, 01:18:16 AM »
Giga 4 has to be able to produce cars sat a price and volume that makes sense.  Giga4 will be an engine for growth and will help fund more factories.

I predict, this early, that future Tesla EU manufacturing facilities won't be in Germany...

It doesn't matter if Giga4 is late by a quarter or two.  However those original predictions of 2-3 years were made with a real basis in fact. The fact that China is nothing like those other builds those estimates were made from is a very important point.  Because Germany is like that.

I would love to see Tesla complete in 1 year and ramp up to 500k run rate 6 months after.

If it happens I will be more than impressed with Tesla.

Tesla now has a template for gigafactories: Giga Shanghai.  Many first-time construction problems will have been addressed, so this building Giga Berlin should be easier.  Just as China wanted to prove their prowess at building a factory for the country’s first-ever wholly owned foreign car company, Germany seems to be working hard to bring Tesla into the German circle of industry.

Musk has said he expects Giga Berlin to be operating by the end of 2021, but he may be sandbagging that date, the way he did for Model Y production to begin “fall of 2020.”  Germany wants to impress, so  they will likely put forth extra effort to assure the project meets or beats expectations.

Quote
The government in Brandenburg, one of five federal states in the former communist east, also lobbied hard to win over Musk, offering at least 100 million euros in aid. The state’s negotiators kept up the pressure in the past months, touting Brandenburg’s proximity to Berlin, its skilled labor force and an abundance of clean-energy plants, Premier Dietmar Woidke said.

“Berlin can do a lot that we aren’t able to, and we can do a lot that Berlin can’t,” Woidke told reporters in Potsdam. “Together, that’s an unbeatable mix.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-11-13/elon-musk-s-german-factory-started-with-love-letter-from-berlin
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5025 on: January 13, 2020, 01:44:19 AM »
Germany does rely on groundwater for a lot of the drinking supply and Germany is covered with warnings for vehicles carrying hazardous materials.

...
A concern is OK, they have a right, but the first port of call should be the planning and environmental impact assessment. But it is all too easy just to say No, then there will not be a problem.

I don't know if there are any elections locally any time soon but I would expect the Greens to do better at the next one.

Perhaps my comments about protests about noise pollution for the local wildlife sound a bit more viable? If they haven't read the environmental impact assessment, you can be sure they are unaware that the plant intends to operate 24x7.

A) The Giga4 location is on the edge of an existing industrial area.  I haven’t seen any complaints or comparisons raised about any other nearby factory, so Tesla could just follow the others’ lead — but I would not be surprised if Tesla’s on-site water treatment plant will surpass whatever others have done.
B) What noise burden? ? ?  Even if noise weren’t projected to be a Low Impact, there’s no residential areas nearby to be bothered.
C) People should read the environmental impact statement before complaining about imaginary problems.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5026 on: January 13, 2020, 02:28:20 AM »
Ready, set...
Quote
Tobias Lindh (@tobilindh) 1/12/20, 12:02 PM
Es ist viel passiert seit ich das letzte Mal im #Teslaforest war.
Die neue Zufahrt ich größer geworden als ich dachte.
Die Munitionsräumdienste haben den Wald regelrecht durchgekämmt und zum Teil gleicht es schon einer Kraterlandschaft....
https://twitter.com/tobilindh/status/1216405019328684032
Photos below; more at the link.

Translation:
A lot has happened since I was last in the #Teslaforest.
The new driveway grew bigger than I thought.
The ammunition clearance services have literally combed through the forest and in some cases it already resembles a crater landscape.

Edit:  GF4 Drone footage!   “TeslaForest” is the new ‘muddy field.’ ;D
Quote
Gigafactory4 (@gigafactory_4) 1/12/20, 11:05 AM
New drone footage online.
youtu.be/7g34gmpOb4k
https://twitter.com/gigafactory_4/status/1216390845974417408
« Last Edit: January 13, 2020, 02:39:13 AM by Sigmetnow »
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5027 on: January 13, 2020, 09:11:20 AM »
I agree that on the face of it building GF4 in one year is impossible. I thought the same about GF3 though, and was pleasantly surprised with the result. My gut feeling, GF4 will take longer than GF3 but much shorter than similar factories in Germany. As often with Tesla, I recommend a wait-and-see attitude.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5028 on: January 13, 2020, 09:41:54 AM »
Those who aren't borrowing on Tesla shares have nothing to fear when the bubble bursts.
Terry

I remember when Amazon was worth 90 Billion. Just 8 years ago.
That bubble is still not bursting, and Amazon does not even have a product.
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5029 on: January 13, 2020, 09:49:55 AM »
Or take Apple. 12 years ago, they had a real good product, just like Tesla has now.
Their product costs customers about $25/month.
Tesla's product (a car) is at least $250/month.

So I would be severely disappointed if Tesla is not a $1 trillion company 10 years from now, and not surprised if they will be worth much more than that.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2020, 09:55:53 AM by Rob Dekker »
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5030 on: January 13, 2020, 12:37:03 PM »
I guess the drones will tell us the working hours and frequency of the site as time goes on.

I guess there are plenty of Eastern European construction labourers willing to work extended hours to get the thing done.

We shall see.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5031 on: January 13, 2020, 01:24:47 PM »

I guess there are plenty of Eastern European construction labourers willing to work extended hours to get the thing done.

We shall see.
From Sigmetnow's post #5002 on advertised job vacancies

Recruitment Operations Coordinator (German, Polish & English)

With Brexit a reality, one can expect a flow of Poles leaving the UK for mainland Europe with obviously good English skills and at least some looking for work. Perhaps Gig4 will end up as a German / Polish operation. And we are not just talking about labourers.
______________________________________________________
As of 2013, the largest group of modern Polonia can be found in the United Kingdom (550,000),[17] followed by that in Germany (425,608),
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5032 on: January 13, 2020, 01:37:31 PM »
Yep, Poland supplies a lot of labour all over the EU.

I do wonder how many complaints there will be about peaceful communing with nature being shattered by Sunday construction activities?

After all, there are only 24 hours in the day and boosting a workforce can only speed things up so much. Losing every Sunday is 52 days of the year lost, which were not lost on Giga3.  Although the end 2021 date may have accounted for that.

At least the Grohman kit won't have to travel far...  :D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5033 on: January 13, 2020, 04:06:40 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

bluice

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5034 on: January 13, 2020, 04:23:16 PM »
No you were making a judgement about what I know about it.
You wrote it would make more sense for Tesla to build cars in Japan and ship them to Europe than build GF4 in Germany. I questioned if you have any facts to back up this rather outlandish idea.

Let's not spread baseless disinformation.

I have made a career of running projects, mainly in mainland Europe, for most of the last 20 years. I live, mostly, in France.
Ok, so as expected your opinions are just that, opinions. You have no factual basis to claim building GF4 in Germany is a bad idea.

You might wish to study the movements in the Automotive manufacturing industry in Germany.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/21/news/companies/volkswagen-germany-workers-salary-wages-rise/index.html
So one year ago German auto workers got more money and more days off. I suppose Tesla was aware of local labour costs when they made the decision to invest in Germany.

They probably also know which unions they need to negotiate with.
Or the working time study done.  Check the German (D),  plants against the rest. For monthly working hours.

https://www.iat.eu/aktuell/veroeff/am/lehndorff00de.pdf
Your study has data from 1998.  That's 22 years ago.

One could hope Tesla did find out how many hours they can expect their workers to work in 2020. Maybe it's more, maybe less but I'm sure Tesla knows it.

The places which run extended shifts and longer hours and weekend working are Poland and Spain.

Again, you need to know the differences between EU countries.
Neil, everybody knows there are differences between EU countries. Spain has something like 20 public holidays per year, Sweden grants one year paid paternity leave and France is on strike every second month. You really think Tesla decided to make a multimillion dollar investment before finding all this out? They could have built in Spain, Czech Republic, The Netherlands or Romania, or somewhere else. Yet they went for Germany.

Maybe labour costs are not the most important issue to Tesla, a company making top-market cars in highly automated factories? After all their NA factories are in the US, not in Mexico.

The way I see it that Tesla is becoming a global company and want to be present in the major markets. Maybe they want to get advantage of the German automotive know-how which until recently has been considered world class.

There are more things at play than a Sunday trucking ban.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5035 on: January 13, 2020, 04:41:09 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5036 on: January 13, 2020, 05:06:38 PM »
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/12/20, 3:15 PM
The average estimate of 32 sell-side analysts for [Tesla] 2020 revenue is $30B.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1216453684315467777
Data image at the link.


< That implies ~450k deliveries. Seems like the 2020 forecast will be a surprise to those analysts.
VA:  Yes

—-
Quote
Third Row Podcast (@thirdrowtesla) 1/12/20, 4:46 PM
Your kids will grow up with Autopilot the way we grew up with smartphones. They’ll witness the very beginnings & will take it for granted soon.
Buying a car without Autopilot or similar tech will be like buying a Blackberry in 2020
https://twitter.com/thirdrowtesla/status/1216476528126513152

——
I forget: are we still obsessing over panel gaps, or not?
Quote
Alexandre J. Tourville (@ajtourville) 1/12/20, 5:20 PM
Porsche Taycan spotted at a charging station: the panel gaps are horrendous. If Porsche, with its 89 years of body manufacturing & assembly experience, can't get this right, I don't want to know how they performed on the batteries and powertrain with zero years of experience  :'(
https://twitter.com/ajtourville/status/1216485195127365632
Photo below.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5037 on: January 13, 2020, 05:48:27 PM »
No you were making a judgement about what I know about it.
You wrote it would make more sense for Tesla to build cars in Japan and ship them to Europe than build GF4 in Germany. I questioned if you have any facts to back up this rather outlandish idea.

Let's not spread baseless disinformation.

You are quite right, I did. I run a business, I have done business in Germany. Lived there, worked there.

It is, in the end, all opinion.

Do I think Tesla made a multi Billion dollar investment in the EU without knowing all of this? Well I don't know but I can tell you that of the 12 factories VAG have opened since 2000, 3 are in Germany.  Two were opened for high luxury and low volume.  The Bentley plant converted to Phaeton and the other two are manufacturing Porsche Cayenne.

The remainder are in eastern Europe or other continents.

VW's latest new plant was to be in Turkey.  Existing VW plants are running as low as 60%.

If Tesla had opened a plant in Japan, they would have opened the entire Japanese market and had Japanese cost vehicles available to sell into the EU with no tariffs.

Hence my suggestion that Tesla might have killed two birds with one stone.

In case you are not aware, there was intense lobbying in the EU commission by German and French Auto companies to exclude cars from the Japan trade deal.  They were ignored.

But you are right, I really do know nothing about it.  It is all just opinion.

That being said, if the German Automotive sector does collapse, Tesla will be very well placed to buy up spare manufacturing space.

As Oren says, it will be wait and see.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5038 on: January 13, 2020, 06:23:17 PM »
Sig, I was in a Cayenne at the weekend.  They are an extremly lovely vehicle, pity my head was inside the sunroof space in the back...

I'm sure this gap issue will be resolved. After all they do have the experience. But it does mean they are focusing on other things doesn't it.

Personally I don't want my backside sitting on top of an 800v feed when things go badly.

Time will tell.

On another note, looking at the ID.3 charge options, you need a 3 phase connection to get 11kw with the VW. This is OK in Germany where homes get 3 phase power.  In the UK they do not.

Tesla offer up to 11kw on UK home mains (100A 230v ac was the standard connection).

Just another way that VW is focusing on their home market rather than looking at a global model.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5039 on: January 13, 2020, 06:23:32 PM »
Quote
In case you are not aware, there was intense lobbying in the EU commission by German and French Auto companies to exclude cars from the Japan trade deal.  They were ignored.

It will make it a lot harder to pass legislation that prejudices Tesla cars if they are make in the power house of the EU. A German plant means Germany will be more inclined lo be lobbying for Tesla's benefit  in any EU negotiation.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5040 on: January 13, 2020, 06:52:39 PM »
Is Tesla the new Apple?
They share the same kind of devoted 'consumers' in my observation.
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Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5041 on: January 13, 2020, 07:06:45 PM »
$518!

Sorry, not sorry:
Quote
Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) 1/13/20, 10:16 AM
What's the best gif of shorts expressions today as @Tesla passes 500?
https://twitter.com/teslaownerssv/status/1216740898572124161
   
=======

Tesla’s rise in Germany is only the beginning of Elon Musk’s plan in Europe
https://www.teslarati.com/teslas-strong-2019-sales-in-germany-foretell-what-elon-musk-plans-to-do-in-europe/
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5042 on: January 13, 2020, 07:11:20 PM »
Currently the market has the temerity to ignore the opinions expressed on this thread.
How dare they ?!

519.63 USD +41.48 (8.68%)

Volume 16.6 million, vs 65 day average 10.3 million, and only half-way through the trading day

As an aside, 1 million passenger EVs  on the road in the USA reduces demand for gasoline*** by about 0.03 million barrels per day, compared with 2018 gasoline consumption of a bit above 8 million barrels per day by autos and light vans (source: EIA + guess about HGVs & Buses).

It will be some years before Musk saves the planet.
___________________________________________________-
ps *** 1 barrel (42 US gallons) of crude produces about 45 US gallons of products, of which only 19 gallons is gasoline. As EVs grow, this may give refiners a big problem.

pps: The growth of gas-guzzler SUV sales in the USA and collapse of the sedan market has probably decreased average mpg, perhaps increasing fossil fuel consumption by more than gasoline savings from current EV sales.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5043 on: January 13, 2020, 07:40:59 PM »
Tesla peaked just under 520.  Although I guess it is not over yet.

I do wonder what those private investors think?  Those who didn't go with Musk.

Earnings call on Feb 18th, just over half way through the quarter.

Lots of things could happen in between.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5044 on: January 13, 2020, 07:45:47 PM »
Quote
As an aside, 1 million passenger EVs  on the road in the USA reduces demand for gasoline*** by about 0.03 million barrels per day, compared with 2018 gasoline consumption of a bit above 8 million barrels per day by autos and light vans (source: EIA + guess about HGVs & Buses).

It will be some years before Musk saves the planet.

Helpful info, gerontocrat; thanks.

Model Y should quickly double the number of EVs in the U.S. (and start hitting ICE SUV sales).  And I’m waiting for the Tesla Semi truck’s ‘Hulk smash’! 
(Nikola One, anyone?)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5045 on: January 13, 2020, 07:47:12 PM »
The Planet will be fine.
It is us homostultus that musk is trying to save. 
The idea is selling compelling electric cars that are better than dino burners to make legacy industry stop holding back electrification by  pushing compliance weird mobiles that only appeal to a small niche market. In that respect the master plan seems to be working. Every auto motive comments section now has comparisons to what Tesla offers.

Like.
Quote
And for just $10k more, you can get a Model 3 with double the range, faster charging, liquid cooled batteries, more features and far better performance. An e-Golf just isn't a good financial decision in 2019
https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/road-tests/118542258/road-test-review-volkswagen-egolf#comments

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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5046 on: January 13, 2020, 10:03:06 PM »
524.86USDPrice increase46.71 (9.77%)
Closed: Jan 13, 16:00 EST - Disclaimer
After-hours: 524.860.00 (0.00%)

I haven't seen #420 for a while.....
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5047 on: January 13, 2020, 10:13:59 PM »
Seeing that Tesla enthusiasts were able to attend local government meetings and obtain detailed information about the factory’s environmental impact studies... it would seem that these folks are not terribly motivated — or, that they are simply foot soldiers for anti-Tesla groups.  No surprise, if so.

There does seem to be one real concern.

Quote
Another member of the group voiced their concerns about the already difficult task of providing enough clean drinking water to the town. “If a huge consumer is now added by Tesla, it will be even more difficult,” Steffen Schorcht stated. Tesla has been looking for numerous providers of clean drinking water for the site as the company has recognized the local sources will simply not be enough

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-4-protests-tree-cutting/amp/
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5048 on: January 13, 2020, 10:20:19 PM »
Close 524.86 USD +46.71 (9.77%)

Capitalisation USD 94.6 billion


Tesla revenue for the twelve months ending September 30, 2019 was $24.420B,

i.e. Capitalisation = 4 x 12 months revenue (excluding Qu4 2019).

Even at 40% compound sales growth per annum it would take 3 to 4 years without any hiccups for annual sales to reach market cap, with net profit at 4 % giving a P/E ratio of 25.

Qu4 financials had better be good.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5049 on: January 13, 2020, 10:27:35 PM »
There does seem to be one real concern.

Quote
Another member of the group voiced their concerns about the already difficult task of providing enough clean drinking water to the town. “If a huge consumer is now added by Tesla, it will be even more difficult,” Steffen Schorcht stated. Tesla has been looking for numerous providers of clean drinking water for the site as the company has recognized the local sources will simply not be enough

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-4-protests-tree-cutting/amp/
The town will begetting a lot of tax and fee income from the Tesla operation, and I am sure Tesla will find the money upfront for the necessary water facilities. Even a 100 million bucks would not screw the budget up too badly. The town water supply will likely end up in better shape after Tesla is operating than it is now.

Every large project has a number of things like that to deal with.
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