Tesla glory/failure

[NeilT]

Well if they are better than 50% of Pre covid expectations they are well ahead of the pack.

A while ago I mentioned that the 55k deliveries were way too low and why.  I have seen an analyst report estimating 75k to 85k deliveries.

However if it is true that M3 MIC profits are up in the high 30's, P&L figures could be a Huge surprise.

My range is 70k to 90k delivered depending on just how things have played out.

I expect either a small loss or a very small technical profit.

Even if it is a larger loss on less vehicles, they will have done extraordinarily well.

I remember the time when Google had a major outage due to their single network provider losing comms.  It was the last time Google relied on one network provider.

Tesla havbeen extremely hampered by the California lock down and I guess it is the last year we will see Tesla operate vehicle assembly in a single state.

A week to the end of the month, a few days more till we find out the delivery numbers.

Time to speculate.

[GoSouthYoungins]

NielT is in the house! How are those solar rooooofs coming? Have they become unfake yet?

Wasn't this the year the fake product was turning real!?!

[NeilT]

I know you live in a nice comfy deep hole GSY, but even you will be aware of the economic impact of the virus and the impossibility of doing a house re-roof in a lock down.

Yet I still expect good performance once things get back towards normal.

[gerontocrat]

GSY needs some new stuff - endless repetition gets so predictable and....boring.

[BeeKnees]

Tesla last in recent auto quality survey.

Averaging 2.5 faults per car in the first 90 days of ownership.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/tesla-ranks-dead-last-latest-auto-quality-survey-n1232055?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

[BeeKnees]

Tesla are so desperate for deliveries to be made within this quarter they are selling cars already allocated to a buyer to someone else, leaving the original buyer with no idea when they will get a car.

https://twitter.com/agusnox/status/1276016295604076545?s=20

Elon says sorry,

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1275986119872573448?s=20

[NeilT]

Well, the person buying the Tesla could just cancel the order and get an equivalent car from someone else.

Erm, but, wait, they can't because there is no other.

Tesla is still in a shooting gallery for deliveries and revenue in the worst global  ldownturn since the Great Depression.  I'm assuming that customers, should they think about it, would want a strong and vibrant Tesla rather than one constantly on the back foot for raising finances to grow.

After all this shuffling is only going to delay by one to three weeks max.

It may cause some pain if the purchaser is selling and can't delay the sale, in which case they might want to approach Tesla to get a short term vehicle.

It is very easy to condemn Tesla for this but it is the people condemning Tesla who are making this necessary.

Give it 18 months and this will all go away.  Nobody predicted the pandemic and nobody was prepared for it.

[BeeKnees]

Well, the person buying the Tesla could just cancel the order and get an equivalent car from someone else.

I'm not sure what you think defending this sharp practice achieves.

Sometimes we just have to be honest and say something is wrong.  Even when a large corporation is in a position to ride roughshod over a customer. 

[cognitivebias2]

Personally I think that's just part of buying a Tesla.  You buy it without driving it, and get it when it arrives.  And you line up to do this so because the product is compelling and you don't have to go thru the broken process at the legacy dealership.

[Sigmetnow]

Musk followed up his apology with:

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 6/24/20, 10:57 PM
Special thanks to Tesla trucking & rail partners for figuratively & literally going the extra mile

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1275986553060220929

Expecting perfection, in the midst of a pandemic, may be asking a bit much of any company.  Also, every new model car has problems in the first year or so, Tesla included. (See Consumer Reports. )  Add in the zombie-like arising of Tesla FUD that happens before every quarter end, and these reports are nothing new.  (The memory wear-out that kills the screen affects only early Model S/X and has been known for years — why bring it up now?)

JD Power is not like Consumer Reports.  JDP will give an award to any car, if they’re paid for it…  they refuse to reveal their source data unless paid huge fees… and you’ll note in the article that Tesla did not cooperate with them.  How did they obtain their information?  Did they count as “problems” the post-sale adjustments that Tesla service does for free on a normal basis?

Earl of Frunkpuppy (@28delayslater) 6/24/20, 1:32 PM
Who funds this FUD parade?
-11 complaints / 2012-15 Model S investigation
-2012 battery FUD trumpeted by more than one internet blogger
-JD Power rankings nonsense
-Don’t buy Model Y FUD
All dropping today as $TSLA is on the cusp of S and P inclusion.

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1275844197573156870
From the replies:  “journalist” and long-time Tesla-denigrator Linette Lopez is a speaker at ‘FraudFest2020’ this month. Russ Mitchell is attending.  Tesla hate reaching max intensity!

TSLA stock shrugs it off as many gladly see a buying opportunity after yesterday’s dip.

Whole Mars (@WholeMarsBlog) 6/24/20, 7:55 PM
JD Power and Associates will give you an award if you pay them. Look it up, it’s true.

https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1275940631798362114

[GoSouthYoungins]

GSY needs some new stuff - endless repetition gets so predictable and....boring.

Actually, there is no need for new stuff. I'm laughing at the fake products/services that Tesla markets and even sells.

Every day it is a bigger joke. My "old stuff" becomes more relevant every day...


-FSD is 3 years late from its "definitely done" date. (600% late, and counting, lol).

-Battery swaps: nobody even pretends it is a thing. Memory hole that shit!

-Solar Roof! "unveiled" almost 4 years ago. The 4 year old buffalo-giga is a joke. It produces NOTHING!

-Semi "unveiled" 2.5 years ago. Still not real.

-Hovercraft roadster! lol

-24 hr turnaround car service "operational" by last year. lol

-Model Y is a model 3 with a tweak and there is tiny demand and horrible quality issues.

-Cybertruck is fake and ridiculous.

-China Giga is fake. Fremont can make 10,000 a week. Tesla never sells that many cars, so why more giga capacity. Texas giga? WHY! Berlin giga? WHY! TO MAKE WHAT!?!?!?


It is all a joke. And the punchline: the look on y'allz faces when the dreams never materialize but instead just vanish into the ether. Poof.

[igs]

I've been in Georgia's (Caucasus Region) Capital Tbilisi and have never ever seen that many EVs in one place.

One of the results was that i have had the opportunity to drive all kinds of EVs and PHEVs over a period of 2 weeks and the result was clear.

- Zero Tesla's didn't show any error messages on the dashboard, some minor some relevant like
  airbag warnings.

- Another observation was that the suspension of the model 3 is rock-hard and feels like that of a tuned and lowered Volkswagen Golf, not comfortable at all.

This tells me that Teslas one day will face a similar situation like that of US-built cars in the 70ies.
Way ahead of all others as far as power and technical details were concerned but ultimately overtaken by Japan and Germany built vehicles of high quality and with safe suspensions.

However that will be, no that Elon Musk is the man who helps the US to keep face, being the only US-Entitiy that can shoot US-Astronauts to space, he became kind of system-relevant and that explains many of the past, actual and probably future get-aways for things and stunts for which everyone else would land as a refugée in Switzerland (referring to the now deceased Marc Rich)

[Sigmetnow]

I've been in Georgia's (Caucasus Region) Capital Tbilisi and have never ever seen that many EVs in one place.

Great!

One of the results was that i have had the opportunity to drive all kinds of EVs and PHEVs over a period of 2 weeks and the result was clear.

- Zero Tesla's didn't show any error messages on the dashboard, some minor some relevant like
  airbag warnings.

Note:  Tesla does not have stores or service centers in Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, or Russia.  Or Turkey or Ukraine. 
So I don’t know how the Teslas got to Georgia , but the odds are they have not been legitimately serviced or maintained.

Edit:

- Another observation was that the suspension of the model 3 is rock-hard and feels like that of a tuned and lowered Volkswagen Golf, not comfortable at all.

Did the car have the fancy wheels?  The bigger wheels cause a harsher ride — the same as with most cars — because the tire itself is less deep and thus offers less cushioning.

Cool that you had the chance to try out so many EVs, though!

[KiwiGriff]

Zero Tesla's didn't show any error messages on the dashboard, some minor some relevant like  airbag warnings.

On a model 3 there are no "warning lights on the dash".

Another observation was that the suspension of the model 3 is rock-hard and feels like that of a tuned and lowered Volkswagen Golf, not comfortable at all.

The hottest Golf the r has a  harsh ride with lowered sports suspension.
0 to 60 in 4.6 seconds.
Model 3 long range.
0 to 60 in 4.4.
Model 3 performance.
0 to 60 in 3.2.
I wounder why the 3 performance  has a sports car like feeling?
FWIW its probably the tyres not the suspension that was responsible for the harsh ride.
The UK spec long range has 18's with 19 an option the performance has 20's standard.

This tells me that Teslas one day will face a similar situation like that of US-built cars in the 70ies.
Way ahead of all others as far as power and technical details were concerned but ultimately overtaken by Japan and Germany built vehicles of high quality and with safe suspensions.

!973 Chev Caprice had a massive 112kw out of its huge 6.6l v8 and weighed in at 2,000kg
The 1973 Toyota corona as sold in the USA had 80kw from its 2.4l six and weighed just over 1,000kg.
Work out the power to weight ratio for each....
There is even a recognized term for the gutless rubbish built by Detroit during that time .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaise_era
Malaise Era is a term describing American cars from roughly 1973 to 1983[1] during which American cars suffered from very poor performance.[2]

[Sigmetnow]

“What do you think is more difficult: fixing these customer complaints, maybe some manufacturing defects, or building an all-electric platform with amazing performance and scaling an autonomous ride-hailing service?”  — Tasha Keeney

Tesla’s industry lead is growing as legacy automakers ‘flail’ on driverless cars, Ark Invest analyst says

“Overall, this seems sort of like a short-term event in sort of Tesla’s long-term trajectory in being a leader in electric vehicles and autonomous transportation,” said Keeney.

She added that that dynamic is crystallizing for Tesla as legacy automakers are forced to shelve ongoing electric and autonomous car projects so they can focus on stemming Covid-related losses.  For instance, the first three months of the pandemic cost General Motors $1.4 billion before taxes. The losses led GM to cut nearly 8% of the workforce in Cruise, its self-driving car unit.
…
“We’re seeing a lot of the traditional automakers sort of flail, particularly in the autonomous technology space,” Keeney said. “They’ll maybe acquire a start-up, and many of them haven’t really done that that successfully — maybe GM is the most successful case — or they’ll partner with another traditional auto. But then they change plans a year later, and we haven’t really seen a lot of development effort come out of them.”

“Tesla’s really the only automaker that’s successfully enabled over-the-air updates. That’s crazy,” she said. “They have an amazing software advantage over everyone else. So, I think it would do well for the industry if another automaker were to succeed. But right now, we think Tesla still has a three- to four-year lead over the rest of these companies.” …

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/tesla-bull-case-growing-as-legacy-automakers-flail-on-autonomous-cars.html

——-

Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) 6/25/20, 6:05 PM
First thoughts driving my new Tesla model Y. Review and discussion of what I learned at Tesla today and outlook for the stock. #tesla $tsla #teslamodelY #StockMarket #stock

https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1276275302713266176
30 min periscope vid from inside his car, with his kids, and answering his live chat...
Tesla salesfolk there told him they are as busy as they were pre-COVID.

—-

Giga Berlin / Gigafactory 4 (@gigafactory_4) 6/25/20, 5:06 PM
Today at the community representatives meeting in #Gruenheide, where Mr. Steinbach @joergstb (Minister of Economics of Brandenburg) was present as well, the street south of #GigaBerlin got a new name: Tesla Straße

https://twitter.com/gigafactory_4/status/1276260494865727489
Image below.

[NeilT]

It appears that someone else thinks Tesla is going to do well on deliveries for Q2

[Sigmetnow]

Unique factors regarding Tesla’s potential S&P 500 membership

Tesla Facts (@truth_tesla) 6/28/20, 3:23 PM
1/
There's a little known aspect of Tesla's potential S&P 500 membership: currently TSLA is not part of the S&P 400, the midcap index.
Why is this relevant? Most index funds already own S&P 400 names, and joining the S&P 500 is a simple matter of transferring shares internally.
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1277321864101138433
2/
But it's very rare for a company to not be part of the S&P 400 when it joins the S&P 500.
In this special case funds benchmarked to the S&P 500 will have to buy tens of millions of TSLA shares from the open market and hold the shares - reducing the float significantly.
3/
So TSLA "jumping" on the S&P 500 without the interim step of the S&P 400 creates huge buying pressure that is underappreciated by the market.
TSLA will join the S&P 500 if it posts a marginal profit in Q2, but this is highly uncertain, so funds cannot buy in advance.
4/
Can funds buy options instead? This arbitrage opportunity is closing as well, because options premiums past the Q2 earnings report are already over $100 for near the money options, higher than 10% of the underlying.
5/
For example September $950 call options are currently trading at around $125, which represents a 13% premium. Any fund buying such options risks losing that hefty 13% price on a speculative bet to front-run TSLA S&P 500 inclusion.
6/
Of the global ~10 trillion dollars of investment assets benchmarked to the S&P 500, about 0.6% or ~$60b would have to purchase TSLA on inclusion, to simply become benchmark-neutral.
7/
I believe only a fraction have done this so far, which sets up a potentially huge self-reinforcing event once TSLA's S&P 500 inclusion probability reaches 100% on Q2 or Q3 profitability.
8/
All the funds that "missed out" will have to scramble to acquire the required shares - and if TSLA rises rapidly as a resulting buying pressure, the urgency to buy TSLA will increase in a positive feedback loop.
9/
The comparatively still very high short interest in TSLA (12% of the float compared to ~2% for similar high-tech firms) might further add rocket fuel to this phenomenon, in form of short covering.
10/
In particular long-short funds that are dominantly benchmarked to the S&P 500 will have significant incentives to close their equity short TSLA positions.
11/11
TL;DR: the "jump" to the S&P 500, combined with short covering, combined with very high options premiums might set up a gigantic buy event that could eclipse even the big short squeeze of TSLA earlier this year, when it catapulted by +$700 from ~$250 to ~$950.

[oren]

There's a little known aspect

I bet speculators and hedge funds are filled to the brim with TSLA shares, waiting for the promised buyers. This can cut both ways.

[NeilT]

True Oren, but the speculated high 30% profit margin for MIC M3, will play a very large part with over 30k sold this quarter.

In terms of sales and profits it could be the very largest surprise of all.

Equally it might not be, but if you are forced into buying premium Tesla shares on S&P 500 inclusion it has to go on the risk register.

It will be an interesting month or so between the sales figures and the earnings report.  Whichever way the figures go.

[Sigmetnow]

CNBC: 
June 29, 2010: Tesla goes public.  Take a look back at Tesla’s ride over the last decade.
https://twitter.com/cnbc/status/1277582679656071170
[~2 min vid]

Elon: “We’re going to change the world”
Impatient Fans: “Dude weren’t you supposed to change the world yesterday?”
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1274492014378156032

—-

Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) 6/27/20, 11:50 AM
Here is the article about @elonmusk from @barronsonline today. 50% annualized ROR from the IPO. What an amazing investment. Elon is the definition of resilience and determination. He keeps me motivated! #tesla $tsla
https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1276905706092806144
Text image below; click to embiggen.

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 6/27/20, 3:25 PM
@GerberKawasaki @barronsonline
Physics favors electric transport, batteries for stationary storage & solar/wind for energy generation
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1276959792876011520

——
Tesla Semi spotted delivering Model 3 fleet in Q2 push
 June 27, 2020

Tesla is using its Semi to increase delivery numbers before the end of 2020’s second quarter on Tuesday. The commercial vehicle was loaded with Model 3 sedans outside of the Fremont production plant on Friday afternoon.

The Semi was spotted in Tesla’s South Logistics Lot outside of the Fremont Facility loaded with the company’s mass-market sedan, the Model 3. The Semi has seemingly joined the company’s efforts to reduce vehicle delivery times and increase delivery figures to offset a halt in production at Fremont during the beginning of the quarter.
…
Tesla stated during the Q1 2020 Earnings Call that the Semi was set to begin deliveries in 2021. The automaker contacted reservation holders for the commercial vehicle in January, indicating that the Semi would be ready for a production push in the second half of the year.

Earlier this month, Musk indicated that Tesla would begin a “volume production” push of the Semi ahead of schedule in an email to company employees. …

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-model-3-q2-deliveries/

[Sigmetnow]

Unofficial, but an interesting video review of AP data.
Here's What Tesla Autopilot Sees And How The System Works
https://insideevs.com/news/430233/tesla-autopilot-what-it-sees/



=====
Perhaps related to stories about salvaged Tesla computers containing personal data:  recent OTA updates indicate data is being encrypted.

“Software Updating to 2020.24.6.1
Encrypting data...”

Tesla Model X Performance Ludicrous Raven (@tesla_performax) 6/28/20, 6:55 AM
Yes.. also in Europe! And confirmed by @greentheonly since [version] 2020.16. Seems to be a new feature to prevent privacy leaks in replaced MCUs

https://twitter.com/tesla_performax/status/1277193868379918336

====
Tesla Giga Berlin Applies For Early Shell Construction

Tesla is continuing active construction at its Giga Berlin and has now filed another application for approval of the early start of measures for shell parts.

At the moment, the process of approving the project is incomplete, and Tesla builds at its own risk. Now, In addition to earlier construction work, the company wants to build shell parts. If everything goes according to plan, then there is no doubt that Tesla will begin production of Model Y in Giga Berlin earlier than mid-2021.
…
Tesla recently refined its factory plan, as detailed planning revealed that some factory buildings would need to be built on piles. The new plan also contains information on the forecast of water consumption at the plant. According to the documents, the volume of water supply and the wastewater was reduced by a third. …

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-plans-to-build-a-shell-before-approval-is-completed

Tesla Giga Berlin’s building structure is about to begin construction
June 26, 2020

Construction on the main building at Tesla Giga Berlin has begun, as validated by the recent sightings of the pillar and beams that have arrived by train. Giga Berlin production facility will begin construction soon as pillars and beams for the building have arrived on the site via train.
Tesla has been ramping the project since January, but recently the building foundations and preparations to begin the construction of the facility itself have started to take shape.
Photos from Tobias Lindh show a series of construction-grade pillars and beams being transported into the Giga Berlin property by a series of cargo trains that Tesla has been using since mid-May. …

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-construction-building-framework/

=====
—- California is acting to halt its renewed COVID community spread.  No sign yet that offices and factories, which can enforce COVID safety measures and minimize employee contact on site, will be forced to close.
Fremont, CA,  COVID update

Scott Haggerty (@scott_haggerty) 6/29/20, 5:13 PM
The Alameda County Public Health Dept. announces that it will take a pause on its reopening plans. As COVID-19 cases increase in the region.
@DublinPIO
@Fremont_CA
@CityofLivermore
@Dare2BWell
#AlamedaCounty

https://twitter.com/scott_haggerty/status/1277711759093067776
Text image of the announcement, at the link.

[blumenkraft]

Tesla Giga Berlin Applies For Early Shell Construction

One does not simply apply early for a construction project in Germany. It's not done. This is going all way more smoothly than i expected. How are there no problems by now?

Quite remarkable.

[NeilT]

If you take a step back, this is a politically acceptable project where the manufacturer has gone to very great lengths to address all environmental concerns.  The product is also environmentally beneficial.

It is bringing long term jobs into the area and is also helping the local economy during a pandemic.

The whole operation is receiving both federal and EU funding, meaning state funding goes further.

On top of that, those environmentalists who are NIMBY's and hate all the evidence of the infrastructure that they use to live their lives have been hoist by their own petard.

It is by no means over, but it has gone very smoothly so far.

[blumenkraft]

The right incentives in the right groups who hold power ... Yeah, makes sense, Neil.

[Sigmetnow]

July 1, $TSLA closed @ 1,119.63, up 39.82,  +3.69%.

Tesla tops Toyota to become largest automaker by market value
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/tesla-tops-toyota-to-become-largest-automaker-by-market-value.html

July 2:  this morning, $TSLA is up 100 @ 1220 in pre-market trading....

[Sigmetnow]

Here’s why:

Q2 2020 Production: 82,272    Deliveries:  90,650
https://ir.tesla.com/node/20836/pdf

Click to embiggen.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla’s result significantly beats street estimates.

”Analysts on average expect the company to deliver roughly 74,000 vehicles in the months from April to June, according to Refinitiv data.”
Tesla's Musk calls on workers to help company break even in second quarter
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results-idUSKBN2402SW

Q2 2019
Production was 87,048    Deliveries 95,200

Edit:  Also:
Q1 2020   
Prod: 102,672        Deliv: 88,400

[NeilT]

I guess we will have to wait for the numbers but a larger proportion of the number was Shanghai based, rather than Fremont.

As MIC M3 has a much larger profit margin than Fremont manufactured cars, we should expect that to weigh on the balance sheet.

One down, now it is a wait to see just what the financials say.

There should be some net boost in credits from FCA in the mix too.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Tesla is currently "valued" higher than Toyota. In the past decade:

-Toyota made 85 million cars and made $150 billion PROFIT.

-Tesla made 1 million cars and LOST $6 billion.


A world gone mad. Too much centralized political and media power. The masses are detached. The money is fake. The center cannot hold.

[blumenkraft]

Tesla will be a thing 10 years out, that's pretty sure. Toyota maybe not so much.

This is what the stock market is telling you here, GSY. If you have the opposite opinion, you are the fringe.

[GoSouthYoungins]

I know I'm the fringe. I also happen to be right.

The mainstream may love WireCar, but it is a fraud.


The stock market told you that Enron was the future of energy, Worldcom was the future of communication, Lehman Bros was the future of banking, and Crazy Eddies was the future of electronics retail. So sure, Tesla is the future of cars.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla Gets Back Into COVID-19 Fight With Production Of RNA 'Microfactories'

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) will divert its attention from vehicle production to the construction of mobile molecule printers for a prospective COVID-19 vaccine, CEO Elon Musk announced Wednesday.

“Tesla, as a side project, is building RNA microfactories for CureVac & possibly others,” Musk tweeted.
“In principle, I think synthetic RNA (and DNA) has amazing potential,” he added in response to questions. “This basically makes the solution to many diseases a software problem.”
The new project will supplement the development efforts of CureVac, a German company backed by the Gates Foundation.

CureVac is crafting portable messenger RNA printers for local production of its vaccine candidate and therapies with similar mRNA-based mechanisms.
Tesla Grohmann Automation, a Tesla branch that produces automated manufacturing systems for fuel cells and batteries, will spearhead the production.

The CureVac partnership is the automaker’s second foray into the pandemic fight. In March, its engineers used Model 3 parts to create ventilators for coronavirus patients.

https://m.benzinga.com/article/16487443

Musk says Tesla is building 'RNA microfactories' for CureVac

Tesla Inc is building "RNA microfactories" for coronavirus vaccine developer CureVac in Germany, the electric carmaker's chief executive officer, Elon Musk, tweeted on Wednesday.
CureVac, an unlisted German company, has said it is developing transportable, automated mRNA production units that it calls printers. They will be designed to be shipped to remote locations, where they can churn out its vaccine candidate and other mRNA-based therapies depending on the recipe fed into the machine.

But for the immediate pandemic use - should its vaccine candidate win market approval – it has production sites with regulatory approval in Germany with a capacity to produce hundreds of millions of doses.

It is also building a new stationary site that could increase its output tenfold to billions of doses.
Musk did not elaborate on his plans. Tesla and CureVac were not immediately available to comment.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/musk-says-tesla-is-building-rna-microfactories-for-curevac/ar-BB16fkr1

[bluice]

I remember when Facebook went public. I thought only idiots would buy their stock.

They had plenty of users but made no profit. They hadn’t even figured out a way how to make money out of that user base! Service was awful in many ways. Nobody understood the constantly changing user settings that were used for pricacy violations. All the early adaptors I knew had plans to switch to something better. The cherry on top was the dishonest and unlikeable CEO.

I still think I was right, but it doesn’t pay to be right against the rest of the world.

[GoSouthYoungins]

I remember when Facebook went public. I thought only idiots would buy their stock.

They had plenty of users but made no profit. They hadn’t even figured out a way how to make money out of that user base! Service was awful in many ways. Nobody understood the constantly changing user settings that were used for pricacy violations. All the early adaptors I knew had plans to switch to something better. The cherry on top was the dishonest and unlikeable CEO.

I still think I was right, but it doesn’t pay to be right against the rest of the world.

I think the idea here is that Tesla is somehow like Facebook. This is absurd.


FB went public in 2012. In 2013 they posted a profit and have every year since. Retained earnings: $60 billion.

TSLA went public in 2010. In 2011 fElon Musk said Tesla was going to be profitable the following year. He has said this every year since. Every year they posted a loss. Retained earnings: NEGATIVE $6 billion.

[blumenkraft]

A social media company can scale as it grows. You start with one server and once the network effect kicks in, you scale up but by then you already have revenue.

Building cars is different, you need tooling, build up know-how, etc even before you can have your first revenue. Scaling here works very differently, you have to invest hugely beforehand.

Which might explain Tesla not to be solidly in the black numbers yet, wouldn't you agree, GSY?

[bluice]

Exactly, BK. Different industries, nothing absurd there.

Maybe Tesla started out as an eccentric billionaire’s hyped up pet project. Nobody cares anymore.

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla (TSLA) crushes Wall Street’s Q2 estimates with over 90k deliveries

By posting over 90,000 vehicles delivered, Tesla has completely crushed Wall Street’s estimates, which stood at 72,000 deliveries as of July 1, 2020 according to FactSet. Estimates from analysts regarding Tesla’s Q2 results varied, and there were even off-field estimates from firms like Credit Suisse, which recently published an estimate of 90,000-100,000 vehicle deliveries despite its traditionally bearish stance on TSLA. 

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-crushes-q2-estimates-90k-deliveries/

< “Tsunami of hurt”
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 7/2/20, 1:08 PM
 I tried to warn them …   
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1278737385052942336

Elon Musk:  Who wears short shorts? 
~ Tesla will make fabulous short shorts in radiant red satin with gold trim
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1278760548188983296
Elon Musk:  Will send some to the Shortseller Enrichment Commission to comfort them through these difficult times
< Can they PLEASE HAVE FLAMES on them!???!!!   I beseech you!
Elon Musk:  I worried we won’t be taken seriously if our short shorts have flames 

=====

Tesla Gets Back Into COVID-19 Fight With Production Of RNA 'Microfactories'

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) will divert its attention from vehicle production to the construction of mobile molecule printers for a prospective COVID-19 vaccine, CEO Elon Musk announced Wednesday. ...

Next:  Tesla joins Big Pharma?  Doubles its worth… and/or shames Big Pharma by helping provide vaccines globally at no cost....

Preparing for the next pandemic:
RNA microfactories pre-positioned around the world, with an initial supply of dose containers and chemical feed stock (climate-control maintained via Tesla solar and batteries).  OTA vaccine software updates transmitted via SpaceX Starlink.  And tons of follow-on supplies when needed, delivered quickly via Starship Earth-to-Earth....

[NeilT]

I know I'm the fringe. I also happen to be right.

Model 3 a fake, Model Y a fake.  Shanghai a muddy field and Tesla to go bust Q4 2018 or Q1 2019.

You keep harping on about how Tesla has never made a profit.  Except in 2020 Tesla is going to make a full year profit, without a doubt.

In 17 years Tesla has managed to accumulate $34bn in assets and currently holds $6.6bn in equity.  Ford, at 117 years old, has assets of $258bn and equity of $33bn.  Plus Ford sells 11 times as many vehicles per year (based on 2020 500k vehicle target).

In Q1 of 2020 Tesla shipped 88,496 vehicles and overall business reported revenue of $5.985bn.  An average of $67,630 per vehicle.  This was up from the $66,879 per vehicle value in 2019.

In 2019 Ford shipped 5.5 million vehicles and reported revenue of $155.9bn.  An average of $28,345 per vehicle.

At this price point and rate, Tesla would overtake Ford at 2.4 million vehicles.  Tesla will have a capacity of 1.5m vehicles per year by end 2021 with the current facilities in development. Should Tesla decide to include two more factories within the next 6 months, that could be expanded by another 1m by Q1 2022.

At 4.1m vehicles, Tesla overtakes Toyota.

This ignores significant revenue hikes with cybertruck and the semi business, self drive, ride hailing, taxi services and a whole host of other things Tesla is currently developing.

So, GSY, no, you are wrong and wrong and wrong and wrong.

There is a really good reason why Tesla is currently getting a market cap larger than Toyota.  It is because Toyota and all the other incumbents have been doing the wrong thing on EV and Tesla has not.

It becomes clearer, every year, that FF vehicles are unwelcome in more and more economies.  The Covid disaster and the EU response in terms of the 95g/km CO2 was a very clear bellwether. 

All you have to do is open your eyes and stop considering Musk as a fraud.

Is Paypal a fraud?
Is SpaceX a fraud?

No and No.

Time to get over your dislike of Musk and see the world as it really is.

[Archimid]

Tesla is not a fraud. Tesla was the future.

But I'm very worried that during a vital time of the world Elon Musk has chosen to lie about coronavirus to sell cars.


At best, he has chosen to downplay the disease to stimulate short term growth at the cost of life. Good for the present of Tesla undoubtedly, but the price is too high. The lives Elon Musk is ending with the power of misinformation is completely unnecessary. The death he is creating is not necessary to save tesla.

At worst, Elon Musk truly joined Trump in the same ways many corporate interests joined Hitler.

Trump promised him a token trip to Mars and a dystopia where he has almost unlimited privilege, and he took it. Elon Musk, seeing the grasp Trump has over the Judiciary and the assortment of criminals he has dispersed over government agencies, picked a side.

My Superhero is turning into Supervillain. Fucking pandemic.

[kassy]

Or more likely the truth is somewhere in the middle and less dramatic.

[NeilT]

Archimid, there are several responses to the pandemic and no one response has the seal of proof that it works.

Yes Musk has strong opinions on this, but I read, just two days ago, that the UK was below normal weekly deaths for this time of year at a little over 1,000.  With covid providing most of them at this time.

I guess you would have to know how many workers in Tesla factories have contracted the virus and, of those, how many have died from it.

To date it appears to be 0 for 0, but I don't know.

Most of the lock downs have been based on the need to protect the medical services from being overwhelmed, but they are walking all over the rights of people to determine their own lives.  Time will tell as to whether this is a faustian bargain or not.

So, I guess, the position of Musk depends on your views.

It would all be a lot simpler if Sweden had locked down, but they didn't and the apocalypse didn't occur. Leaving people to wonder about the lock downs.

[GoSouthYoungins]

But I'm very worried that during a vital time of the world Elon Musk has chosen to lie about coronavirus to sell cars.

Dude. Take a minute and meditate on this. Let a sense of calm wash over you.

Now, look at all of Musk's previous actions through this new "Supervillian" (aka: selfish asshole psychopath) framework.

Could that outlook explain his previous actions and well as his current ones? Yes.

Could the outlook of him as a "Superhero" explain his previous actions and well as his current ones? No.

Musk is and has always been the villain. You just didn't realize it before. A successful villain can use peoples good intentions to do selfish evil.  A successful villain champions a cause that gets normal/good people to aid them.

I too once thought Musk was doing brilliant things. But now, why not just realize that obvious truth like I have. He is a self serving fraud.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Model 3 a fake, Model Y a fake.  Shanghai a muddy field and Tesla to go bust Q4 2018 or Q1 2019.

It really takes a jerk to keep making strawman arguments when they have been pointed out to be vacuous in the past. Please dont be a jerk.

Tesla has managed to accumulate $34bn in assets

Enron had about twice that in assets when their fraud was uncovered. Congrats.

Is Paypal a fraud?
Is SpaceX a fraud?

Musk never ran PayPal.
Yes.

There is a really good reason why Tesla is currently getting a market cap larger than Toyota.

This part is true. (Your explanation was of course, not.)

TSLA SP has gone crazy high was a few good reasons.

1) The Fed created more money currency US Dollars in the last 6 months, than existed in the year 2000. This is crazy inflation and the currency will flow into whatever assets offer the path of least resistance. The Fed also has used this money to backstop the bond market so the bankrupt companies don't go bankrupt. I won't even get into the short squeeze this causes.
2) Gaming the price though the options market.

[BeeKnees]

The level of delusion that defends Musk at every turn is being matched by a view that he is the devil incarnate.

Tesla being about to go pop, and Musk's dismissal of the virus are both wrong.

Sweden isn't a model to follow based on recent data and Tesla isn't another Enron.  There really needs some balance here instead of this retreat to extremism.

[Archimid]

Tesla hasn't failed at all. They are open and taking precautions. That is good. C19 will be with us for a while longer, so must learn how to live with it and Tesla is doing it right.

However, Elon Musk's personal twitter account is a C19 misinformation source. He has heavily downplayed the pandemic using bad data.

Look at this March 19 post:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960

Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April

On that date, I made this post

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg254955.html#msg254955

I can totally see that happening. All we have to is hold the wave until that point. To do that we need testing, tracing, isolation, massive mask-wearing, and cleanliness campaigns. However, if we let the infection get out of hand, we must quarantine most of society to gain control over the infection, as they did in Wuhan like they are trying in Italy.

And I wasn't alone by a long shot with the conviction that this virus would keep advancing.  At the time, Elon's statement was as ridiculous as it seems now. 

How can someone so smart be so incredibly wrong? This eats my insides. At the time, I decided to give him the benefit of the doubt. The guy panicked, I thought. That's ok, he will realize his mistake soon enough.

But he hasn't. He shares coronavirus misinformation and downplays the disease as a daily exercise. If someone has to lie to do what is right, it is unlikely they are doing the right thing.

It could be that this is just a panic reaction. The guy is so emotional about it that he can't see how wrong he is.

But he is too smart for that.

I think that like Trump he wants to increase the speed of the epidemic because 500k lives lost is acceptable to them.

I think that he is doing it by using his pulpit to encourage people to not comply with safety standards, as that is a surefire way to increase infection.

I think the coronavirus is appealing to him, as is trump racist dystopia.

[NeilT]

Sweden isn't a model to follow based on recent data and Tesla isn't another Enron.  There really needs some balance here instead of this retreat to extremism.

The only extremism here is the extreme attempt to control the virus.

I'm not deluded, I also follow the figures.  Sweden has better numbers than the UK.  Also the UK is recovering, slowly and coming out of lockdown, against the howls of "it's going to happen again".

I don't think what Musk says is wise.  Then again, I won't condemn him as a complete maniac.

Anyway.  GSY has delusions of the state of Tesla.  Musk is just very, very annoyed.  Especially at the way they were treated given their experience and the provisions they took.

Musk is Musk and he chooses to vent in the way he does.

There is little point in trying to analyse the whole covid mess right now.  Nobody has any comprehensive data and nobody will have that until years after the outbreak and all the leads have been followed up.

Roll on the vaccine's.

[Sigmetnow]

LG Chem to produce Tesla batteries in South Korea this year as demand grows: source

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd plans to start producing batteries for Tesla Inc vehicles at a domestic factory this year after the U.S. electric carmaker raised orders to cope with demand, a person familiar with the matter said on Friday.

“Tesla is asking not only LG Chem but other suppliers to increase supplies, as its cars are selling well,” the person told Reuters.

A second person with knowledge of the situation also said LG Chem is converting some of its production in South Korea to produce batteries for Tesla. An LG Chem factory in Nanjing, China, already makes batteries for Tesla. …

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lg-chem-tesla-batteries-idUSKBN2440QU

——
Tesla could deliver 10 million electric cars annually by 2030: Gene Munster
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/07/03/tesla-could-deliver-ten-million-electric-cars-annually-by-2030-gene-munster.html
2 min CNBC interview. “I think four million is conservative.  Elon Musk believes it could be as high as 15 million.”

[Archimid]

His C19 risk denial extends the pandemic. He should know this.  Why is he personally taking actions that extend the pandemic and places people at risk, while the company takes action to keep their employees safe?

He must know. I no longer accept the explanation that he doesn't know. Then why? Why is Elon Musk personally attempting to increase the rate of infection by spreading the same type of misinformation as Trump?

One would think that his vested interest is to end the epidemic as quick as possible. Why is he attempting to extend it? Some Trump thing involving the election? I don't know.

I wish I knew.

[oren]

Archimid, no need to assume conspiracy when you can blame misinformation. Many usually smart people have fallen into the Covid denial trap. Why? The explanations are in the field of psychology or neuroscience, not cryospehre or AGW related. Stop looking for explanations, and surely this is not related to Tesla, same as Elon being a purported superhero (as appears from the tweets often brought by Sig) is not related to Tesla.
And what BeeKnees said, balance is better than going to extremes on both sides of the argument.
As for Q2, the numbers are quite astounding considering the pandemic. The stock at $1200, wow. Is it overvalued in the traditional sense? Sure. Will it drop? Very hard to say. The long run could see an adjustment in valuation metrics, but the long run could also see serious profits that might support a higher share price eben while valuation becomes more rational.

[GoSouthYoungins]

The balanced perspective always seems the wisest. But in time, being right is all that matters.

In 2003 the balanced position was that Saddam probably had some weapons of mass destruction but that going to war wasn't smart. Balance said No Brexit and President Hillary. Balance and truth have nothing to do with each other for any specific instance. It only appears that way if you balance out the aggregate of possible outcomes. Worship balance and you will see the virtues and logic of balance.

WireCar is riddled with obvious instances of selling shit that doesn't exist and numerous other dubious accounting practices. (These things are frequently referred to as fraud...AFTER the dam breaks and the gimmick becomes understood by the mainstream.) Til then, 'balance on' if it makes you feel wise.