Tesla glory/failure

[NeilT]

Today I fell over electric car faq's article entitled Are There Any Automakers That Can Rival Tesla?.

After a rather long dissertation, the final. Conclusion was.

a lot of the companies talk a big game but have yet to deliver a compelling product, and so at this time, there are no real rivals to Tesla.

I agree.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla Giga Shanghai Model 3 Production Surpassed 4,000 Per Week With Two Shifts
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-giga-shanghai-production-rate-battery-supply

Tesla China Model 3 Achieves New Sales Record Of 14,954 Units, 23% Of total electric car sales in China
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-sold-14-954-mic-model-3-in-china-in-june-up-35-month-on-month

——-
Claim #1:  Tesla will fail!  There’s too much competition for it to succeed.
Claim #2:  Tesla is too big and powerful!  It’s forcing other companies out of business.

Tesla Gaining Ground Pushes China's EV Bubble Closer to Bursting

Tesla Inc.’s new Shanghai plant has churned out super-popular Model 3 electric sedans for the past six months, catapulting the company atop the sales chart and piling the pressure on cash-strapped local rivals. There was another casualty last week.

Byton Ltd. is at least the third sizable electric-vehicle upstart to throw in the towel since Elon Musk started his made-in-China offensive, after Bordrin Motors and Jiangsu Saleen Automotive Technology Co. wound their operations down earlier this year. They fell victim to plummeting demand amid the trade war and coronavirus pandemic, and as the government scaled back the subsidies that turned China into the world’s biggest EV market with hundreds of producers.

Yet Tesla, in just half a year, grabbed a hefty slice of that shrinking pie — and its portion keeps getting bigger. The market leader’s sales now approach a quarter of the total tally for EVs, the China Passenger Car Association said Wednesday, as wealthier buyers are drawn to Tesla’s brand cachet. That’s making life difficult for the slew of local contenders and risks exposing the multibillion-dollar Chinese EV push as a bubble.

“It is more and more difficult for EV startups to raise funds,” said Cui Dongshu, secretary general of PCA. “New-energy vehicles have not yet been popularized on a large scale — so it is like the situation where there is not enough food in the temple, and some of the monks are forced out.”
…
The Chinese government infused massive amounts of money into the alternative-energy vehicle sector over the past two decades, persuading foreign carmakers such as Tesla and Volkswagen AG to start manufacturing EVs in the country. A market that was initially dominated by local companies became more competitive, turning investors increasingly cautious on the fledging local startups. At one point last year, there were almost 500 EV manufacturers registered in China.
…
Byton, one of the highest-profile startups that never sold a car, suspended domestic operations this month and furloughed staff. The company invited employees to resign and said it is making efforts to obtain funding to pay salaries owed.

The company, which plotted a U.S. entry for years, struggled to meet announced deadlines to start producing and delivering its first model even before Tesla made its China push and the virus broke out. Its website still accepts reservations for cars.
…
Faraday Future, the electric-vehicle upstart that was on the brink of insolvency in 2018, last year hired the former head of Byton to lead efforts to finally bring its debut car to market. The new leader, Carsten Breitfeld, took over from founder Jia Yueting, who a few years ago left China for the U.S. amid a cash crunch at his domestic businesses. The FF 91 vehicle Faraday is developing is set to boast more than 1,000 horsepower and cost upward of $150,000.
…
Miao Wei, the minister for industry and information technology, said five years ago that the government wanted to add a few “catfish” into the EV market, referring to newcomers and foreign rivals that would help spur innovation and bring in advanced technology. The end result would be a more robust and healthier market for the ones that survive.

The startups already selling — companies such as NIO, WM Motor and Xpeng — are in a relatively better position than those that aren’t as far along with product development, Cui said. Indeed, NIO, which secured $1 billion in additional funds from a regional government this year, sold a record 3,740 vehicles in June.

In contrast, startups that have yet to offer a product are at the biggest risk of suffering, said PCA’s Cui. They still require significant funding to get their business off the ground, and the challenges in obtaining that could speed up mergers and asset sales.

“There are too many EV companies chasing too few customers with constraints on capital,” Russo said. “Consolidation is inevitable.”

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/falling-china-car-sales-show-economic-rebound-still-shaky

[Yuha]

Panasonic CEO's characterization of Elon Musk as reported by Reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-panasonic-tesla/panasonic-ceo-says-teslas-elon-musk-a-genius-who-can-be-overly-optimistic-idUSKBN2482BF

Tesla’s Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk is “a genius who defies common sense and can be overly optimistic”

“I believe only geniuses can hold onto big visions, and a genius I know is Elon Musk”

With excessive optimism, a genius like Musk can ignore what is inconvenient and run straight ahead towards his vision, Tsuga said at the event. “Compared to that vision, most things don’t really matter.”

[GoSouthYoungins]

2016: all cars capable of SAE level 5 autonomy with HW 2.0

2017: need HW 2.5, now it’s ready

2018: need HW 3.0 now it’s ready

2019: it’s ready & wii have 1 million Robotaxis next year

2020: it’s ready soon & hey SEC, suck my c*ck

from @FalconWingFail on Twitter

[GoSouthYoungins]

Seth Weintraub
@llsethj
Quote Tweet

The annual “we’re almost there, probably by the end of the year”.

Meanwhile my 3 year lease of Model X with FSD is up next month.

[Sigmetnow]

Big day tomorrow (Friday)?  A 3.6 million dollar bet (stock call) has been placed that $TSLA closes over 1500 tomorrow.
No big news I am aware of;  Musk reiterated at the China AI conference that Tesla FSD will be available Real Soon Now.  And Giga Berlin construction is proceeding even faster than Giga Shanghai did….

Could it be that institutional managers are simply starting to “get it” — to understand where Tesla, and TSLA, is going?  And that S&P 500 inclusion is essentially inevitable at this point (if not after Q2, then certainly after Q3).

“I estimate the amount of $$$ that will have to buy $TSLA once added to the S&P 500 or will try to front-run the inclusion in the next few weeks at ~$100B; still, this is not why the stock price is surging.”
“Index funds can’t front-run purchases, can they?”
“No, but active managers can and will.”
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1281221810831405057

Tesla 'Very Close' to Making Autonomous Vehicles, Musk Says

Musk said Tesla could work out the basics of autonomous-vehicle technology as soon as this year, Bloomberg reported, citing a prerecorded video of the executive that was played during the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai.

Tesla has solved most of the essential challenges of creating a fully self-driven automobile, or Level 5 autonomy, Musk said, reiterating a goal he first expressed last year.

“I’m confident that we will have the basic functionality of L5 autonomous driving this year,” Musk said. “There are no fundamental challenges.” ...

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tesla-very-close-to-making-autonomous-vehicles-musk-says

Tesla Giga Berlin Construction Speed May Be Faster Than We Expected
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/giga-berlin-1
Timeline comparison below.

—-

Crescendo Cap (@crescendo_cap) 7/9/20, 3:31 PM
Someone bought 2000 calls at ~$2.75 each with a strike of $1500 expiring tmrw. This represents a 200k share equivalent (2000x100 shares) and a bet that Tesla will trade higher than the 1502.75 cost by eod tmrw for the trade to be profitable.

https://twitter.com/crescendo_cap/status/1281310148137349120

CentralScrutinizer (@Central27178711) 7/9/20, 4:58 PM
on another note.. 18,000 July 1500 Calls that expire TOMORROW traded today..closed at $2 bucks with 24 hours on the clock.. 3.6 million dollar bet the stock closes over 1500 tomorrow  $TSLA
https://twitter.com/central27178711/status/1281332029632720896

< If the stock tomorrow closes at $1504 this guy makes $3.6M.
If it closes at $1514 he makes $21.6M.
If it closes at $1600 he makes $176.4M.
If it closes below $1502 he loses $3.6M though...
afaik

[oren]

Note to Sig: Not every piece of twitter is interesting or accurate, even if it is Tesla bullish. Some twitterers are bullish but bullshitting. "Value Analyst" is anything but, and is a great example of the BS type. It's better to stick to actual Tesla news than to the ramblings of the cheerleaders. Just my humble opinion.

Big day tomorrow (Friday)?  A 3.6 million dollar bet (stock call) has been placed that $TSLA closes over 1500 tomorrow.
No big news I am aware of;  Musk reiterated at the China AI conference that Tesla FSD will be available Real Soon Now.  And Giga Berlin construction is proceeding even faster than Giga Shanghai did….

Could it be that institutional managers are simply starting to “get it” — to understand where Tesla, and TSLA, is going?  And that S&P 500 inclusion is essentially inevitable at this point (if not after Q2, then certainly after Q3).

“I estimate the amount of $$$ that will have to buy $TSLA once added to the S&P 500 or will try to front-run the inclusion in the next few weeks at ~$100B; still, this is not why the stock price is surging.”
“Index funds can’t front-run purchases, can they?”
“No, but active managers can and will.”

CentralScrutinizer (@Central27178711) 7/9/20, 4:58 PM
on another note.. 18,000 July 1500 Calls that expire TOMORROW traded today..closed at $2 bucks with 24 hours on the clock.. 3.6 million dollar bet the stock closes over 1500 tomorrow  $TSLA
https://twitter.com/central27178711/status/1281332029632720896

< If the stock tomorrow closes at $1504 this guy makes $3.6M.
If it closes at $1514 he makes $21.6M.
If it closes at $1600 he makes $176.4M.
If it closes below $1502 he loses $3.6M though...
afaik

Volume (amount traded - 18000) is NOT open interest (amount outstanding - 6000).
So "the guy" does not exist, in any case it's not "a guy" it's the whole market.
Besides, options are often a part of portfolio, hedged against other options or the stock itself.
Volume of C1400 was 29000 (open interest 6000). Volume of C1450 was 12500 (open interest 2300).
Chances of TSLA closing above $1500 tomorrow are slim to non-existent.
One could buy C1450 for $5.70, and sell C1500 for $2.1, a cheap trade with much better payout profile than straight C1500.
One could buy C1400 for $16.70 and sell C 1450 for $5.70, maybe this is even better.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/options?p=TSLA
It could very well be that the C1500 volume was due to holders of the options taking their losses, realizing it's expiring worthless so cashing out at $2.
Or holders of the stock that use a "write covered call" strategy, making money off call premiums while keeping the stock and hoping for a slow but steady rise, deciding to close the position for cheap and open a new one for next month.
Or traders needing the small option for margin while selling bigger options they think will expire worthless as well.

As for the addition to the S&P 500, I estimate that hedge funds and active managers have been front-running this for a while already. This story is getting old, and the crowded trade is often the losing trade, as evidenced by the shorts killing themselves over the past year. The longs don't always have it right either, that's just how the game works.

[Sigmetnow]

Oren, thank you for the additional details.  I posted the tweets as conversation starters, not gospel, the same as many comments that appear in this thread.

And VaueAnalyst has recently turned to the dark side, so expect to see considerably fewer of their tweets now.

For those who care, TSLA is currently trading up about 13, at 1407.

[sedziobs]

I'm out at 1495. This feels like repeated short covering rallies. At some point it should all come crashing down, maybe even back to the 6-700 range.

[Sigmetnow]

I'm out at 1495. This feels like repeated short covering rallies. At some point it should all come crashing down, maybe even back to the 6-700 range.

Forgive me for thinking you were joking!

——
Tesla short sellers are down $18 billion this year, including another $4 billion in July

Normally when a short seller moves to cover their position by buying back the equity, the sums are so small that it has little to no upward impact on the price of the equity. But when that happens en masse, when scores of short sellers cover at the same time, the trade can drive the share price even higher and exacerbate short losses.

That can lead to cascading waves of covering and, as a result, higher and higher stock prices.

"The reason behind Tesla's short squeeze is obvious and straight forward, large mark-to-market losses are forcing out some short sellers as they hit their loss limit thresholds," Dusaniwsky wrote. "If Tesla's stock price continues to trend upward, we expect even more short covering as mark-to-market losses accumulate.” ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/tesla-short-sellers-are-down-18-billion-this-year-including-another-4-billion-in-july.html

[sedziobs]

I think those 1500 calls were probably based on charts. My 1495 exit point was from the rising triangle pattern of the the last two days (1315>1405>1495). From here it could consolidate and gather new short entries, only to see those burned in another rally. It's all speculation at this point. I'd rather invest elsewhere. I don't feel like much has fundamentally changed about Tesla over the past month.

[oren]

One could buy C1450 for $5.70, and sell C1500 for $2.1, a cheap trade with much better payout profile than straight C1500.

10x or more on the money in a day. Damn... maybe I should follow this roller coaster more closely again.
In investment terms this is complete craziness, I agree sedziobs, all speculation here.

[gerontocrat]

One could buy C1450 for $5.70, and sell C1500 for $2.1, a cheap trade with much better payout profile than straight C1500.

10x or more on the money in a day. Damn... maybe I should follow this roller coaster more closely again.
In investment terms this is complete craziness, I agree sedziobs, all speculation here.

The NASDAQ is 29% above a year ago. The markets are piling into stocks that might do OK out of Covid - i.e. tech, online retail, even renewable energy stuff.

So Tesla is out in the front of all this Wall Street huff and puff. I suppose one day the markets will have to look at earnings and money in Jane & Joe's pocket book rather than the Fed's current largesse.

One of the adverts to attract daytraders to their platform has the disclaimer "70% of day traders on our site lose money". Tears before bedtme?

[Sigmetnow]

OMG  +120 to $1515 at 3:20pm.

[Sigmetnow]

gerontocrat wrote:

The markets are piling into stocks that might do OK out of Covid - i.e. tech, online retail, even renewable energy stuff.

^^ This.  If one is looking for a company doing well now, and likely to do even better for Q3, TSLA is the place to be. 
Of course, the buy-in for that choice is quite steep right now.  I think most of the rise today is short selling, and FOMO.

[Sigmetnow]

Friday July 10.  TSLA closed up 150 to 1545.  Up further in aftermarket trades.

This should about cover the gamut:

zerohedge (@zerohedge) 7/10/20, 1:31 PM
TSLA just added $16BN in market cap on no news in minutes.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281642203173974017

—-

IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) 7/10/20, 2:27 PM
Tesla market cap now $275bn- just shy of JP Morgan ($278bn)
$TSLA
$JPM
#tslaq

https://twitter.com/igsquawk/status/1281656288582279172
TSLA Price graph at the link.

—-

Dan Tapiero (@DTAPCAP) 7/10/20, 2:18 PM
Not looking like a top in #TSLA. In fact, just broke out 7 days ago.
At this rate, @elonmusk becomes world's richest person in a few months.
The market is always right. What is it telling us about the future?
Net worth now equal to 25% of all #Bitcoin. Maybe he buys a few?

https://twitter.com/dtapcap/status/1281654059481669648

——

if $Tslaq Didn't Exist Whom Would We Buy From (@ItalyReferendum) 7/10/20, 2:16 PM
The Thing That Most $TslaQ Don't Realize Is That The More $TSLA Rises Upfront, The More Institutional Money Will Be Forced To Come In Once S&P500 Will Welcome It In, As % Weight Grows Materially
Game Over Soon !

https://twitter.com/italyreferendum/status/1281653636985229312
Price graph of MegaCaps and TSLA at the link.

—-

Stonks (@Progressiveinv2) 7/8/20, 4:58 PM
this is @CathieDWood this week. #TSLA

https://twitter.com/progressiveinv2/status/1280969527828918272
Image below.

[Sigmetnow]

fool.com just published an article attributing today’s stock rise to Elon’s suggestion of a small European Tesla hatchback.

Eva Fox  (@EvaFoxU) 7/10/20, 12:45 PM
Volvo Registered A Tesla Model Y In Sweden For Reverse Engineer?
Model Y should become a wake-up call for all automakers, no matter what they produce❗️…
https://twitter.com/evafoxu/status/1281630571228205060

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 7/10/20, 12:47 PM
Berlin Model Y is the one to watch. That is a revolution in automotive body engineering (finally).
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1281631025366355969

<  Model Y is still too big for some cities in Europe. What about smaller European style hatchback?
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 7/10/20, 12:53 PM
Probably a good one to design & engineer in Germany
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1281632660075319298

Volvo Registered A Tesla Model Y In Sweden For Reverse Engineer?

Model Y will not enter the European market before Giga Berlin is built. Therefore, Volvo imported the car from the Tesla plant in California. We strongly doubt that the Swedish automaker purchased the car so that someone would just drive it, so reverse engineering is the most likely reason. In 2018, Volvo already bought a Model 3, which at that time was not available in Europe, for this purpose. …

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/volvo-registered-a-tesla-model-y-in-sweden-for-reverse-engineer

”The growth stock's move follows speculation that the company may be considering building a small hatchback for the European market.”
Why Shares of Tesla Jumped Friday Afternoon
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/10/why-shares-of-tesla-jumped-friday-afternoon.aspx

[oren]

Chances of TSLA closing above $1500 tomorrow are slim to non-existent.

I LOL at myself. And I pity those sucked into the stock at such prices.

[NeilT]

Chances of TSLA closing above $1500 tomorrow are slim to non-existent.

I LOL at myself. And I pity those sucked into the stock at such prices.

Chances of Tesla breaking over $1,500 on positive earnings results in August are quite good. The market is pricing in entry to S&P500 and prices are reflecting that.

Year end results over 500k deliveries and completion of the Y section of Giga Shanghai will drive the shares further.  As will Giga Berlin and the new US factory.

Let's face facts, Tesla is in a period of exponential growth in a 3 year cycle.  Their demand is strong and their business model is working.

That is just the cars.  The potential of FSD, insurance, Semi, Cybertruck and energy is going to continue to drive higher valuations.

This is a long, long, way from. Over.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Their demand is strong...

Basic economics disagrees. The price-demand equation isn't just a silly idea.  It's a simple concept that illuminates a great deal. Alas, you're in the dark.

Let's face facts, Tesla is in a period of exponential growth in a 3 year cycle...

Neil doesn't know what a fact is. Tough concept to be fair. (From the scientific literature I have read, children usually pick up the ability to discern fact from opinion around age 10.)

The potential of FSD, insurance, Semi, Cybertruck and energy is going to continue to drive higher valuations.

That may be true, sorta. The perceived potential may drive the SP up. But the products themselves aren't real...

-FSD has been a few months away for a few years.

-The Semi has been "spotted making deliveries" for years.

-The Cybertruck is an absurdity and quite naturally there is no working model or factory approved to make it (just like the Semi and Roadster).

-Insurance. Lol. Insurance. Tesla is such a joke the board of directors can't even get insured as directors. So Elon is "insuring them". But sure, they'll start their own insurance company. Like the boring company it will be 10x better than the industry standard. Why? Cuz Elon is a genius man! Hyperloop through the tunnel in your Tesla on your way to Mars!!!!!!

-Energy is the fakest of all. I guess the batteries panasonic make work, but as far as energy generation Tesla is a nothing. They don't even manufacture there own solar panels in their fake Giga in NY. They just ship them in from China. And they can't install them for shit. Tesla is rated as THE WORST solar company BY FAR. Which explains why they do a tiny fraction of the business they did when Tesla bought Solar City (in a clear and obvious case of fraud).


All that being said: the SP will probably keep going up. TSLA = $10,000 in 2021? Sure. The problem is that a hamburger is going to cost $1000 in 2025. Capitalism has been ruined. The fed buys Junk Bonds (like Tesla's) providing them with capital. It is ridiculous. When companies that lose money and destroy value are given more capital, rather than cut off from it, a society is doomed.

[Sigmetnow]

Chances of TSLA closing above $1500 tomorrow are slim to non-existent.

I LOL at myself. And I pity those sucked into the stock at such prices.

ARK Invest projects TSLA will be worth $4,000 by 2024 — and that’s the base case.  That would be a lot of LOLs, even if purchased today.

[Sigmetnow]

Eva Fox  (@EvaFoxU) 7/10/20, 12:45 PM
Volvo Registered A Tesla Model Y In Sweden For Reverse Engineer?
Model Y should become a wake-up call for all automakers, no matter what they produce❗️…
https://twitter.com/evafoxu/status/1281630571228205060

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 7/10/20, 12:47 PM
Berlin Model Y is the one to watch. That is a revolution in automotive body engineering (finally).
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1281631025366355969

Update below.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Chances of TSLA closing above $1500 tomorrow are slim to non-existent.

I LOL at myself. And I pity those sucked into the stock at such prices.

ARK Invest projects TSLA will be worth $4,000 by 2024 — and that’s the base case.  That would be a lot of LOLs, even if purchased today.

4 hamburgers per share.

[GoSouthYoungins]

TSLA is "worth" $750,000 per car sold last year. Those cars sold for $60,000 (and Tesla LOST $6,000 per car). Nice.


Elon is probably just buying $2500 TSLA options for pennies per contract that add up to a huge portion of the shares outstanding. This moves the SP way up. Legit.

[NeilT]

TSLA is "worth" $750,000 per car sold last year. Those cars sold for $60,000 (and Tesla LOST $6,000 per car). Nice.


Elon is probably just buying $2500 TSLA options for pennies per contract that add up to a huge portion of the shares outstanding. This moves the SP way up. Legit.

The Amazon market cap, today, is $1.6T on net revenues of $280bn.

If you don't understand how the stock market works then it would be best to not air that ignorance.

[gerontocrat]

With a market cap of 250 billion, a p/e ratio of 25 requires a net profit (NOT EBITDA) of 10 billion per annum. 

That's a few gigafactories down the track. Maybe Musk will be on Mars by then.

I remember the Japanese NIKKEI back in the late 80's when a p/e ratio of 100 was quite normal. Didn't last.

Mind you, I still think that Tesla has a really good chance of being a very successful company.  It's just that my view is that the US economy is heading for a rough time by the fall (when the bills come in and the Fed cash spigot starts to run dry) and for some time after. An out of control Covid-19 virus won't help. The financial markets may well take a beating. (Same applies elsewhere in the world).

[KiwiGriff]

Growth.
Not profit is what is driving the share price .
We are transitioning to electric cars.
This is not conjecture it is a fact. The number of country's that will outright ban or severely curtail the use of ICE engines in the future is growing.
Tesla has a lead in the technology of at lest a generation. The model S is still the benchmark for range, acceleration and maybe most importantly the  integration of its software architecture.
The three is  one generation the y even further ahead again.
The market potential for electric cars is huge. Approximately 100,000,000 cars are sold each year.
Within a couple of decades they will all be electric. Some legacy will make the transition some will not . The value of legacy industry's factory's and IP is worthless in this transition. 
Tesla has a very good chance of being a major car manufacturing in the next decade .  The share is priced on this growth potential not the present low profits it makes as it grows exponentially.
Tesla sells all it can make at a profit margin per car estimated at around 30%.  Plenty of room to bring price down to keep the competition at bay as and when they can build competitive cars .
Now they are over the early growth phase the market no longer sees them as having a high risk of failure.  The price is not as unreasonable as many try to claim by ignoring the future potential for Tesla and the risks  of  obsolescence for legacy industry .

[gerontocrat]

Tesla sells all it can make at a profit margin per car estimated at around 30%.  Plenty of room to bring price down to keep the competition at bay as and when they can build competitive cars .

That 30% is not net profit.  I don't think it is even the con known as EBITDA. And it relates to the China factory.

I can agree the rest of your post except that if ICE cars are simply replaced by EVs it will be because the world is still in thrall to the God of infinite GDP growth.  Say goodbye to most of what remains of life on earth. 

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla is currently #15 in market capitalization.

[Sigmetnow]

>> Tesla S&P 500 inclusion purchases
Tesla appears poised to electrify the S&P 500

Funds that attempt to identically track the S&P 500 have at least $4.4 trillion of assets, according to S&P Dow Jones, and those funds would need to buy Tesla shares quickly to avoid errors tracking the index’s performance.

Ivan Cajic, head of index & ETF research at Virtu Financial estimates index managers would need to own roughly 25 million shares of Tesla stock, currently worth $34 billion. …

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/tesla-appears-poised-to-electrify-the-sp-500.html


>> Large institutions are buying shares of Tesla, and brokerage firms want to free up shares to sell these large institutions.  So they issued margin calls.
Why Tesla Margin Requirement Changes Could Be A Buying Opportunity

E*TRADE Financial Corp increased margin requirements for Tesla shares from 55% to 70%.

“A lot of people that got this message yesterday had to sell shares,” he said. “Multiple people I talked to overnight were forced to liquidate Tesla shares. Multiple people. And these are people who were positive, up on Tesla, and they had to sell by the close yesterday."

Raznick said brokerages are attempting to free up shares of Tesla to sell to institutional investors.
“This is happening because large institutions are buying shares of Tesla, and brokerage firms want to free up shares to sell these large institutions,” he said.

Forced Selling
On Thursday, E*TRADE and Fidelity all reportedly increased margin maintenance on Tesla to 70%.
A spokesperson from Charles Schwab Corporation told Benzinga in an email the brokerage hasn't "moved our margin requirements on TSLA in quite some time...our requirement has been higher than most firms – we’re at 75% now." …

https://m.benzinga.com/article/16588999


Tesla Short Interest Declines as Stock Hits All-Time High
Shares sold short hit 9-year low
Jul 10, 2020

The 14.0M shares-sold-short as of June 30 represent the lowest short interest by share count on TSLA stock since March 31, 2011. Of course, Tesla had far fewer outstanding shares at that time, so the percentage of shares-sold-short of total outstanding shares is now at an all-time low at around 7.5% of total shares, or 9.5% of float.

Still, as TSLA's share price has risen, so has the market value of the short interest. Despite the 8% decline in shares-sold-short from June 15 to June 30, the valuation of the total short position increased from $15.0B to $15.1B. This is due to TSLA stock increasing from $991 on June 15 to $1,080 on June 30, a 9% increase. …

https://www.thestreet.com/.amp-tesladaily/tesla/articles/tesla-short-interest-declines-as-stock-hits-all-time-high

—
Rob Mauer, Tesla Daily
Tesla Stock Hits All Time High as S&P 500 Expectations Rise + Elon Musk Tweets (TSLA) - YouTube
➡️https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0KdZJJY4yTM

—-
Shareholder meeting and Battery Day now scheduled for September 22. $TSLA

Update on Tesla’s 2020 Annual Meeting of Stockholders; Battery Day
New Date and Location

Stockholders who have previously sent in proxies, or voted by telephone or by Internet, will be asked to submit new proxies or vote by telephone or Internet in advance of the 2020 Annual Meeting by one of the methods described in the additional proxy materials to be distributed, and such previously sent proxies or votes will not be counted. 

https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/update-teslas-2020-annual-meeting-stockholders-battery-day


—-
“The results are shocking. There’s a big, giant difference between the cost of the Model 3 [in 2018] and this Model Y in 2020, and the cost went down significantly!” - Sandy Munro
Munro: Tesla Model Y Costs "Are Shocking"
Jul 9, 2020
https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/articles/sandy-munro-tesla-model-y-costs-are-shocking

[KiwiGriff]

gerontocrat
To my eternal shame i exposed my ignorance by using the wrong term.
Not profit should have used Gross margin.
I suggest googling gross margin model 3 sr+ china and then reading the last link in Sigs latest.
The key is the cost of battery's  something we expect to see interesting developments in on battery day.

[KiwiGriff]

1544.65 
Shorts burning brightly.

[Sigmetnow]

ARK Invest projects TSLA will be worth $4,000 by 2024 — and that’s the base case.  That would be a lot of LOLs, even if purchased today.

Oops, sorry, that was from an older estimate!  As of January 2020, ARK’s base case for Tesla in 2024 is a price target of $7,000.  That case assumes Tesla is not able to develop a robotaxi network.  Their bull case for 2024 is $15,000.

Tesla’s Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years
January 31, 2020

In August 2018, ARK published an open letter with an extract of our TSLA valuation model communicating why we believed taking Tesla private at $420 per share would deprive shareholders of significant returns. Since then ARK has updated its TSLA valuation regularly. Based on new research, we are sharing our latest model to clarify what we believe is TSLA’s potential.

Based on our updated expectations for electric vehicle (EV) cost declines and demand, as well as our estimates for the potential profitability of robotaxis, our 2024 expected value per share for TSLA is $7,000. To arrive at that base case, ARK has developed a probability analysis with bear and bull price estimates, as detailed below:  ...

https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-price-target

[Sigmetnow]

TeslaJess (@TeslaJess) 7/10/20, 5:20 PM
There's a lot of $TSLA investors that paid for another @Tesla or two this week.
Expect Q3 demand to soar based on this one factor alone.
#StuckInTheLoop

https://twitter.com/teslajess/status/1281699794570764288

—-

Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 7/11/20, 3:41 PM
Tesla isn’t Toyota, it’s true. Toyota mastered manufacturing and distribution long ago. But Tesla is still very good.
The operative question is this:
Can Toyota learn do what Tesla does well faster than Tesla can learn to do what Toyota does well?

https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1282037204424912896

—- “insanity”

zerohedge (@zerohedge) 7/10/20, 2:35 PM
TSLA $2500 7/17 Call volume

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281658398271045632
Graph below.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla cuts Model Y price by $3,000 as wide-scale efficiencies get realized
July 11, 2020

Tesla has reduced the price of its Model Y crossover by $3,000 in North America. The price reduction comes roughly three months after the company began delivering its first production Model Y cars to customers in March, and one month after the company cut prices across its entire Model S, Model X, and Model 3 lineup.

Tesla Model Y Long Range is now listed at a base price of $49,990, a $3,000 savings from the previous $52,990 pricing. Model Y Performance also saw a price reduction of $1,000, from $60,990 to, now, $59,990.
...
Back in May, Tesla discontinued its long-running Free Unlimited Supercharging Program that benefited buyers of its flagship Model S and Model X vehicles. By taking the cost of utilities off its books, Tesla was able to pass that back to Model Y consumers and beyond.

Combined with wide-scale efficiencies being realized across its supply chain, production lines, and macro-level economics in its manufacturing, Tesla is on the cusp of reaching price parity with combustion engine vehicles. ...

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y-price-reduction/

[KiwiGriff]

Tesla updates Model S and Model X Supercharging rate to 250 kW.
https://electrek.co/2020/07/12/tesla-updates-model-s-x-supercharging-rate-250-kw/

Last month, Tesla increased the Model S and X Supercharging rate to 225 kW through a software update for some of the most recent vehicles delivered.Now, Tesla has increased the top Supercharging rate for new Model S and Model X vehicles, according to an update of the specs on its website:

This updated charge rate seems to apply to new Model S and Model X vehicles and not something available via a software update like the previous increases – at least for now.

It’s not clear what is enabling the new charge rate that has now caught up to Model 3 and Model Y’s charge rate, but Tesla has been incrementally improving Model S and Model X vehicles over the last few years, and it is rumored to lead to a bigger update by the end of the year.

Update: Musk has now confirmed that Tesla had to “increase some wire thicknesses in S/X to reduce resistive heating” in order to achieve the 250 kW charge rate..

Legacy up dates its cars on a four yearly cycle.
Tesla is always improving.

[Sigmetnow]

“every Tesla is a limited edition
the product lineup is subject to change at any time. what you order one day may not be available the next”
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1279366799704768514

[GoSouthYoungins]

“every Tesla is a limited edition
the product lineup is subject to change at any time. what you order one day may not be available the next”

Handcrafted and made-with-love, you never know which nuts are bolts your Tesla will or won't have. You vehicle will leak in areas unique to you, which can only be discovered through genuine use. Tesla, there is no substitute sometimes we use a zip-tie to substitute.


The product is the stock. As I've said. It is a fraud.

[GoSouthYoungins]

TSLA is "worth" $750,000 per car sold last year. Those cars sold for $60,000 (and Tesla LOST $6,000 per car). Nice.


Elon is probably just buying $2500 TSLA options for pennies per contract that add up to a huge portion of the shares outstanding. This moves the SP way up. Legit.

The Amazon market cap, today, is $1.6T on net revenues of $280bn.

If you don't understand how the stock market works then it would be best to not air that ignorance.

OH WISE ONE, please tell me how it works. PLEASE!

[NeilT]

I'm not the one trying to make a case that Tesla stock should value out at 1 years revenue.

You have shown a clear case of refusing to be educated, so why bother.

1765 at time of writing, up 220 or so.  Clearly it is goung to fall off the peak either before the earnings release or shortly after.

It might fall catastrophically, down to, say, 1,000.

What was your price again?  Zero wasn't it? Based on your facts that the M3 is a fake and will never sell more than S/X, that Giga Shanghai is a fake that the Model Y is a fake and will never make it to production.  As for the Cybertruck and the Semi, you have them as fakes too.

EVERY time your facts hit an impossible barrier of truth, you just move onto the next "fake" statement to make your case.

You never go back and answer the question as to why you were wrong.  Oh, no, always onwards, spewing new "facts" to prove why Tesla doesn't produce anything.

Why would I bother explaining anything to you?

[Sigmetnow]

—— TSLA Stock price
TSLA is trading in the $1,745 range this morning, after jumping to $1,795 shortly after the open. 
Will it skip the 1600’s like it did the 1,400’s?

A few days ago: “Analysts surveyed by FactSet [were] expecting the company to report a GAAP loss of $1.34 a share, or an adjusted loss of 58 cents a share, on revenue of $4.81 billion.“

“Investors now believe that the company could report a fourth straight quarter of GAAP profits when it posts second quarter results on July 22, meaning it could be considered for inclusion in the S&P 500.”

Tesla jumps 14% on S&P 500 inclusion speculation — Now the 10th biggest U.S. stock by market value

Shares of Tesla hit a new all-time high on Monday, extending the stock's record run, as investors continue to pile into the Elon Musk-led company. And as the company's valuation climbs ever higher, speculation is growing that the company will soon join the S&P 500.

After Monday's open, Tesla's market value increased to $321 billion, according to FactSet. That makes it the 10th largest U.S. stock by market value, leapfrogging Procter & Gamble, according to FactSet.

After closing at an all-time high on Friday, shares were another 14% higher on Monday. For the year, the stock is up more than 300%. Earlier in July Tesla topped Toyota to become the largest automaker in the world by market value.

The stock is up more than 55% in July alone after the company handily beat delivery estimates in the second quarter, delivering about 90,650 vehicles. Analysts polled by FactSet had been expecting 72,000. ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/tesla-jumps-11percent-on-sp-500-inclusion-speculation---now-the-10th-biggest-us-stock-by-market-value.html

—- Opinions

Teslaconomics (@Teslaconomics) 7/11/20, 11:54 PM
DO NOT be surprised to see $TSLA at $2000 before Q2 earnings.
This is not a “sell the news” strategy folks.
This is a “if-added-to-S&P-then-funds-required-to-buy” and “decimate-remaining-shorts” strategy.
#Tesla
https://twitter.com/teslaconomics/status/1282161270288838656

[Thread:]
FT₿ (@FullTimeBitcoin) 7/11/20, 9:04 AM
1/6 Just FYI - not financial advice - pretty sure TSLA is going to more than double in the next 4-6 weeks. Not for any fundamental or TA reason. Just a unique market dynamic going on.
https://twitter.com/fulltimebitcoin/status/1281937407873634304
FT₿ (@FullTimeBitcoin) 7/11/20, 3:55 PM
7/ one more quick point, most companies that get added to the S&P500 were in the S&P400 midcap index 1st. So the companies running these funds already have shares. Tesla has grown so quickly but is only recently profitable so they’re skipping the 400, further exacerbating things.
https://twitter.com/fulltimebitcoin/status/1282040722452107264

—- Why the Model Y price decrease is not about demand

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 7/13/20, 5:50 AM
$TSLA Model Y price cut reduces profits per unit by 10% but boosts orders by 20% ...
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1282613481926283264
~ My estimate based on industry norms for demand by price level. I’m confident that my 20% estimate is conservative.
~ Tesla, as any other company on Earth, uses price and other levers to balance supply and demand for all models.

< [Bottom line:]  Pricing strategy is not one-dimensional.
<< And the Model Y might (over time) be cheaper to build versus the 3 because of improved design and simpler manufacturing. So margin will be better than Model 3 due to slightly higher price.

Jakob (@Aureliius) 7/13/20, 6:00 AM
[The graph below] sums up the balance between ASP, gross margin, gross profit and volume pretty well
Mayur Thaker, DFFF (@freshjiva) 7/12/20, 1:11 PM
$TSLA [Average Sale Price] (ex FSD, ZEVs & leasing revenue) has fallen by nearly 50%, yet gross margins have remained stable at 22-24%:
https://twitter.com/freshjiva/status/1282361871761387521
Graph below.

> Everyone on my block is talking about the Y due to this.
<>  [“Tesla Model Y” in Google Trends is ] Number 15 yesterday/today

[KiwiGriff]

GSY = troll
DNFTT
Take away the attention and he has no reason to continue to post his trolls.
I simply blocked him as he has nothing of value to offer he just rants against Musk.

[oren]

—— TSLA Stock price
TSLA is trading in the $1,745 range this morning, after jumping to $1,795 shortly after the open. 
Will it skip the 1600’s like it did the 1,400’s?

Well it skipped both the 1600s and 1500s, and closed at $1497...
Blow off the top?
The volatility is unbelievable.

[Sigmetnow]

...   The volatility is unbelievable.

Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) 7/13/20, 3:46 PM
Today's been an insane day for $TSLA. Was up over 14% at one point. Now flat.
And as @SarahPonczek points out, 10,000 day traders every hour were pouring into the stock   bloomberg.com/news/articles/…   

https://twitter.com/thestalwart/status/1282763275294384129

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla TSLA Price Target Raised To $2,322 By Piper Sandler

On July 13th, Piper Sandler raises Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) price target to $2,322 per share from $939. In the recent release note, the analyst highlighted "It's hard to see how competitors can catch up; Tesla's own capacity is the biggest constraint to share gains" Also inside the same note, "Software, the reason why mid-20s operation margin is possible."

Piper Sandler analyst thinks Tesla's original 2020 delivery guidance of 500K+ units might still be in play.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-tsla-price-target-raised-to-2-322-by-piper-sandler


—- Giga Texas Rumor [“Everyone” expects an announcement in the Q2 Report on July 22]

Matt Smith (@MatchasmMatt) 7/13/20, 8:47 AM
I'm hearing on good authority that Austin will get the next Gigafactory. Model Y capacity actually planned to be higher than Cybertruck, and they are targeting first vehicles to roll off the line in June of '21.
https://twitter.com/matchasmmatt/status/1282657935391436800
< So, first CT less than a year away?!
Matt Smith:  That's what I'm hearing.

[Sigmetnow]

More on the Piper Sandler announcement.

Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 7/13/20, 7:13 PM
Piper Sandler sees FSD price rising to $40,000 over time. @Gfilche
I finally understand the appreciating asset thing @elonmusk was talking about.
If FSD costs more than the car, it’s bound to appreciate even if the car loses almost all its value.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1282815354431926273
[Images from the report]

Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 7/13/20, 7:13 PM
this software based strategy will allow tesla to sell its vehicles at or even below cost
Huh, would you look at that. they’re starting to figure it out.

WMC: reason why I tagged gali is that he just did a great video on this: youtu.be/JbMkaqDcV5A

—-
Piper Sandler Raises TSLA Price Target to $2,322
https://www.thestreet.com/.amp-tesladaily/tesla/news/piper-sandler-raises-tsla-price-target-to-2322
Graph below: Elon has stated he expects a 50% CAGR through 2030

[bluice]

I tried to sell some stock at 1789 yesterday, but it was already 1740'sh and later dropped a lot more. Should have been less greedy

[NeilT]

Interesting seekingalpha article on the Tesla stock price, what is driving it and the 2025 prognosis.

Tesla: Laser-Focused On Disruptive Innovation, $1,750+ Next

The author goes into a significant amount of detail, but constantly worries about over estimating.

Looking at the vehicle numbers, the multiplier applied to vehicle revenue but virtually zero multiplier applied to ride sharing revenue, I believe the author is being cautious in the extreme.  Especially as it is clear that Tesla is on a 3 year cycle of exponential assembly production facilities.  Even starting new facilities before the full revenue is in place for existing builds.

Nice to see the analysis though.

Another two major disruptors are the delivery of HW4 in the 2021-2022 time frame with up to 420 Tops and solid state lidar sensors running at around $500 a go.

Whilst Musk was violently opposed to Lidar at $5,000 a go, he might find a way to accept them at $500, or less.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Tesla shutting down their one factory that makes stuff. Not cuz of corona outbreak! Can we get another $100 Billion in Market Cap please?!?

[kassy]

You forgot a link?