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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5850 on: July 15, 2020, 07:21:12 PM »
No. I assume that most people of this forum have internet access.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5851 on: July 15, 2020, 07:56:54 PM »
No. I assume that most people of this forum have internet access.
You also assume (or do you?) that people will feel the need to rush to search the internet  for validation of your comment.

Me, I'm not feeling needy at the moment. I guess it's about Musk moving the US operation main base to Austin, Texas. I can wait to July 22.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5852 on: July 15, 2020, 08:21:20 PM »
gsy doesn't want to link Electrek ;)

https://electrek.co/2020/07/15/tesla-fremont-factory-shutdown-upgrades-new-assembly-line/

Quote
Tesla is currently undergoing major upgrades at Fremont factory and now we’ve learned that it is soon planning a shutdown as it is opening a new assembly line.
...
Since March, Tesla’s GA4 line has been focused on building Model Y vehicles instead of Model 3.

The new structures have now been completed around the first massive tent based on pictures obtained by Electrek:
...
It’s not clear exactly when the factory shutdown will happen, but apparently it’s going to be around the end of the month.

My understanding is that some of the upgrades are disruptive enough that it will require shutting down production at large parts of the plant.

It might just take a few days or a week, it’s not clear at this time.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5853 on: July 15, 2020, 08:47:05 PM »
It was not worth responding to as GSY claimed, in the usual way, that Tesla only have one manufacturing plant. Completely ignoring the fact that Tesla has a plant in China producing the MIC Model 3 at a run rate of 200k per year and a gross margin just short of 40%.

For those who do not have a sliding window on Tesla activities, Fremont had several 1 week shutdowns in the M3 ramp up especially with the prefab building general assembly line.

The current run rate for Model Y, as per the electrek article, is around 260k per year.  As the M3 lines do not have to slow for the Y, they will continue at around 300k, making current production rate of all vehicles around 630k per year.

Tesla expects to increase the Y production rate as it did the 3, per each successive upgrade.  Parity with 3 would bring Fremont capacity up to around 670k with, I would expect, a nudge up to 750k or more in in 2021.

But, naturally, GSY sees this as bad news and catastrophe for Tesla.

As ever, time will tell.  Anyone other than GSY want to bet that they will fail?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5854 on: July 15, 2020, 09:35:05 PM »
—- Giga Berlin
Quote
@GF4Tesla…build #GigaBerlin. (@Gf4Tesla) 7/14/20, 10:23 AM
“The fourth provisional building permit was granted and TESLA is allowed to complete 90% of GIGABERLIN [Phase 1] (except for the foundry and press).
And already the first false ceilings are being used in the paint shop.
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1283044470037131266
< why not the foundry and press ?
~ Pile foundations have not yet been permitted.

Tesla Giga Berlin Gets Another Early Approval For Plant Construction
Quote
Tesla Giga Berlin received early approval to continue foundation work—including above the aquifier, earthworks, and structural works—and establish private traffic areas on site. The early approval came from the State Environment Agency and was in accordance with Section 8a of the Federal Immersion Control Act.

The latest early approval does not permit Tesla to build on top of planned pile foundations or place components and pipes below the aquifier. Tesla must also follow the noise protection, dust emissions, water protection, and monument protection requirements of the recent approval on top of the provisions required in the other early approvals granted before.

Giga Berlin has started placing concrete beams and the first walls of presumably the Model Y production plant. Construction on Giga Berlin’s advanced paint shop has started as well. …
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-giga-berlin-model-y-gigafactory


—- Tesla China
Could be a second China factory.  Might simply be delivery and service centers.
Tesla China VP Meets With Chongqing Liangjiang New District Committee
Quote
Tesla China’s Global Vice President Grace Tao met with officials from the Chongqing Liangjiang District to talk about a new project concerning Tesla. Tao met with a member of the Standing Committee of the Chongqing Municipal Party, the Secretary of the Party Working Committee of Liangjiang New District, and the Director of the Management Committee. …
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-china-grace-tao-chongqing-liangjiang


—- Tesla Texas (Austin)
Local unions pushed for a delay, but others worried the risk of losing the Tesla factory was too great.
Tesla wins with FOMO card in Texas as county rushes through tax incentive plan
July 14, 2020
Quote
It appears that Austin, Texas has started feeling a little bit of Tesla FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), with Travis County recently approving tax breaks that the electric car maker requested. The tax breaks are worth a minimum of about $14 million over 10 years, and will be awarded to Tesla provided that the company invests $1.1 billion into the state.

The terms of the deal indicate that Tesla could receive higher tax incentives if the company invests more than $1.1 billion in its upcoming facility, or if the agreement is eventually extended for an additional decade. The plant, which is widely believed to be the Cybertruck Gigafactory, is expected to employ 5,000 people. According to the company, the average annual salary for workers at the plant will be $47,147, while the median salary would be $68,303. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fomo-austin-texas-cybertruck-gigafactory/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5855 on: July 16, 2020, 04:13:41 AM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 7/15/20, 1:39 AM
Giga Berlin 
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1283275066805911552
Image below.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5856 on: July 16, 2020, 07:22:48 AM »
Completely ignoring the fact that Tesla has a plant in China producing the MIC Model 3 at a run rate of 200k per year and a gross margin just short of 40%.

<removed gibberish. kassy>

Get a grip. Or a link, for kassy.

<Do both GSY. kassy>
« Last Edit: July 16, 2020, 02:18:02 PM by kassy »
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5857 on: July 16, 2020, 07:24:48 AM »
Show me a product that Tesla makes anywhere other than Fremont.


Anyone?


What does GigaBuffalo make? I mean its a GIGA factory. I'm sure it makes something.  :-[ ;) :-[
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5858 on: July 16, 2020, 07:29:19 AM »
Anyone other than GSY want to bet that they will fail?

Nobody big can fail anymore, genius. The "Fed" hit the money button. And hard.

But in the same way that the USSR's economic bread-for-all policy never "failed", it also never succeeded.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5859 on: July 16, 2020, 10:30:42 AM »
No. I assume that most people of this forum have internet access.

I also assume you have Internet access so I'm going to assume that you don't want to look up the production figures from Shanghai.

Therefore everything you say about it is blahblahblah.

The only reason I don't block you and refuse to reply is that some poor innocent might actually believe this BS and repeat it.

Uess you explain your reasoning for your statement (I can think of a few twisted reasons which could be presented as some form of truth), then you are simply lying to get a response.

For this kind of thing I don't believe in moderation and post removal because this kind of attitude is always repeated elsewhere and there needs to be a rebuttal to this kind of post.

The success of Tesla is tied to the transition from FF to EV.  Without Tesla, manufacturers could simply pass fines on to the customer and make everyone pay to burn FF.  With Tesla EU fines and EV credits are paying for Giga Berlin.

Allowing people like you to talk Tesla down, especially in this way, does nothing for the transition to EV
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5860 on: July 18, 2020, 09:51:33 AM »
Interesting construction techniques on Giga Berlin and use of the rail line.

Pre fab concrete walls, on site concrete plants. It is like they held a competition to get the very fastest construction technique possible.

I've seen concrete pre fab go up before in Europe,  it is incredibly fast compared to the steel fab techniques.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-giga-berlin-construction-site-keeps-making-impressive-progress-in-july
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5861 on: July 18, 2020, 08:44:17 PM »
Video:  Tesla Daily Podcast special episode researching a Tesla S&P 500 inclusion.  Index funds will need to buy approximately 25 million TSLA shares; they do NOT have to wait until after the announcement before they buy; and Tesla might be asked to offer additional shares for sale to help with liquidity (and if it does so, it could raise billions of dollars).

Will Tesla Stock Keep Going Up? Exploring the Mechanics of S&P 500 Inclusion (TSLA) - YouTube
Published on Jul 13, 2020
➤ Exploring the mechanics and implications of a company’s inclusion into the massive S&P 500 index including timing, how many shares need to be bought by when and by whom, liquidity, and more.



Screen cap below re implementation date.

—-
Also, people are noting that S&P inclusion can occur even if Tesla does not have a Q2 profit. (‘Current quarter profit’ is a guideline, but not a hard requirement.)

Image below from: https://twitter.com/jakebrowatzke/status/1284054028897247233
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5862 on: July 21, 2020, 02:53:50 AM »
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 7/20/20, 8:34 PM
The biggest stock to ever be added into the S&P 500.
Stop pretending you know what’s going to happen. Nobody knows.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1285372625338826752

Here’s what i see:
— trillions of dollars of institutions that have to buy TSLA
— people buying because the institutions will buy
— hedge funds that benchmark against the S&P buying
— stock market boom / stimulus
— shorts covering
— autonomy & battery stuff
all at once

Mon July 20:  TSLA +$142.16 (+9.47%) to $1643.00
Up another $20 in aftermarket trading.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5863 on: July 21, 2020, 01:38:59 PM »
I have just calculated average share price over last 6 months is $812.89. Not sure if there have been increases in number of shares. If not that makes the market capitalisation just over 150bn. If share issues(or exercise of options?) may not quite have reached $150bn.

Haven't seen talk of conditions for second tranche being met soon. Does this mean Tesla has to pass more operating milestones to release the second tranche?


crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5864 on: July 21, 2020, 02:27:05 PM »
Code: [Select]
The 2018 CEO Performance Award is comprised of a 10-year maximum term stock option to purchase
20,264,042 shares of Tesla’s common stock, divided equally among 12 separate tranches that are each
equivalent to 1% of the issued and outstanding shares of Tesla’s common stock at the time of grant,
at an exercise price of $350.02 per share. Each of the 12 vesting tranches of the 2018 CEO Performance
Award vests upon certification by the Board that both (i) the market capitalization milestone for such
tranche, which begins at $100 billion for the first tranche and increases by increments of $50 billion
thereafter, and (ii) any one of the following 8 operational milestones focused on revenue or 8 operational
milestones focused on profitability, has been met:

Total Revenue*      Adjusted EBITDA**
(in billions)            (in billions)
$20.0                     $1.5
$35.0                     $3.0
$55.0                     $4.5
$75.0                     $6.0
$100.0                   $8.0
$125.0                   $10.0
$150.0                   $12.0
$175.0                   $14.0

*
“Revenue” means total revenues as reported in Tesla’s financial statements on Forms 10-Q or 10-K filed
with the SEC for the previous four consecutive fiscal quarters.

**
“Adjusted EBITDA” means (i) net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders before (ii) interest
expense,
(iii) (benefit) provision for income taxes, (iv) depreciation and amortization, and (v) stock-based compensation,
as each such item is reported in Tesla’s financial statements on Forms 10-Q or 10-K filed with the SEC for the
previous four consecutive fiscal quarters.

Any single operational milestone may only satisfy the vesting requirement of one tranche, together
with the corresponding market capitalization milestone. Subject to any applicable clawback provisions,
policies or other forfeiture terms, once a milestone is achieved, it is forever deemed achieved for determining
the vesting of a tranche. Meeting more than 12 of the 16 operational milestones will not result in any
additional
vesting or other compensation to Mr. Musk under the 2018 CEO Performance Award. Except in a change in
control situation, measurement of the market capitalization milestones will be based on both (i) a six calendar
month trailing average of Tesla’s stock price as well as (ii) a 30 calendar day trailing average of Tesla’s
stock price, in each case based on trading days only. Upon the consummation of certain acquisitions
or split-up, spin-off or divestiture transactions, each then-unachieved market capitalization milestone
and/or operational milestone will be adjusted to offset the impact of such transactions to the extent
they could be considered material to the achievement of those milestones.

In establishing the Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA milestones, the Board carefully considered a variety of
factors, including Tesla’s growth trajectory and internal growth plans and the historical performance
of other high-growth and high-multiples companies in the technology space that have invested in new
businesses and tangible assets. These benchmarks provided revenue/EBITDA to market capitalization
multiples, which were then used to inform the specific operational targets that aligned with Tesla’s
plans for future growth. Nevertheless, the Board considers each of the market capitalization and operational
milestones to be challenging hurdles. For example, in order to meet all 12 market capitalization milestones,
Tesla will have to add approximately $600 billion to its market capitalization at the time of the grant of the
2018 CEO Performance Award, and in order to satisfy all eight revenue-based operational milestones,
Tesla would have to increase revenue by more than $163 billion from its annual revenue of approximately
$11.8 billion in 2017, the last fiscal year completed prior to the grant of the 2018 CEO Performance
Award.

In addition, Mr. Musk must continue to lead Tesla as our Chief Executive Officer or, alternatively, as our Chief
Product Officer and Executive Chairman (with any other Chief Executive Officer reporting directly to him), at
the time each milestone is met in order for the corresponding tranche to vest. With limited exceptions,
Mr. Musk must hold any shares that he acquires upon exercise of the 2018 CEO Performance Award for
at least five years post-exercise. There will be no acceleration of vesting of the 2018 CEO Performance
award upon Mr. Musk’s termination, death or disability, or a change in control of Tesla. However, in a change
in control situation, the achievement of the milestones will be based solely on the market capitalization
milestones, with the measurement of

43

Tesla’s market capitalization determined by the product of the total number of outstanding shares of Tesla
common stock immediately before the change in control multiplied by the greater of the last closing
price of a share of Tesla common stock before the effective time of the change in control or the per share
price (plus the per share value of any other consideration) received by Tesla’s stockholders in the change in
control.

In the event of a restatement of Tesla’s financial statements previously filed with the SEC, if a lesser
portion of the 2018 CEO Performance Award would have vested based on the restated financial results,
then Tesla will require forfeiture (or repayment, as applicable) of the portion of the 2018 CEO Performance
Award that would not have vested based on the restated financial results (less any amounts Mr. Musk may
have paid to Tesla in exercising any forfeited awards). The 2018 CEO Performance Award also will be subject,
if more stringent than the foregoing, to any current or future Tesla clawback policy applicable to equity awards,
provided that the policy does not discriminate solely against Mr. Musk except as required by applicable law.

As of the date of this filing, (i) one operational milestone relating to $20.0 billion total revenue and (ii) one
market capitalization milestone of $100 billion have been achieved and certified by the Board. In addition,
one other operational milestone relating to $1.5 billion Adjusted EBITDA has been achieved but is subject to
formal certification by the Board, and no other market capitalization milestones have been achieved.
Consequently, one tranche under the 2018 CEO Performance Award, corresponding to an option to purchase
1,688,670 shares of Tesla’s common stock, has vested and become exercisable as of the date of this filing,
subject to Mr. Musk’s payment of the exercise price of $350.02 per share and the minimum five-year holding
period generally applicable to any shares he acquires upon exercise.

from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459020027321/tsla-def14a_20200707.htm

Seems like $1.5 billion Adjusted EBITDA is the second milestone needed and has been achieved if not at that time certified by the board.

So second tranche seems at least very close to being exercisable. Or am I missing something?
« Last Edit: July 21, 2020, 02:32:50 PM by crandles »

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5865 on: July 21, 2020, 04:32:58 PM »

Seems like $1.5 billion Adjusted EBITDA is the second milestone needed and has been achieved if not at that time certified by the board.

So second tranche seems at least very close to being exercisable. Or am I missing something?

EBITDA is a con, invented by the Finance industry (of which I was once a part), for one reason and one reason only - to disguise that the business in question is not making a profit according to GAAP.  The debts of the business, the loan interest.  do not enter into the calculation of EBITDA, let alone depreciation of  high value short-lived capital equipment - e.g. IT stuff).

Cashflow is also ignored - e.g. loan repayment dates. (e.g. fracking busts).

That Musk's deal is largely based on EBITDA is a tribute to his negotiating skills.

But just maybe TESLA did make a real profit in Q2 under GAAP.

EBITDA is one of many reasons that the world is awash with debt. But we must believe the Fed & the Banks that we need not worry,  (an Emperor's New Clothes event awaits in the wings).
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5866 on: July 21, 2020, 05:35:56 PM »
EBITDA is a con
...
That Musk's deal is largely based on EBITDA is a tribute to his negotiating skills.

Don't really disagree about EBITDA being a con.
EBITDA is used far too much and GAAP profit would seem a more sensible milestone to me but EBITDA is what has been used and the target figures would have been different if they used GAAP profit instead.

I would say the deal is largely based on market capitalisation (and to a lesser extent on revenue and EBITDA) rather than largely on EBITDA.


To some extent market capitalisation does bring Musk interests more into line with shareholders.
I would suggest that perhaps the good negotiation Musk has done is more that:

Issuing shares to acquire a business might not produce any gaap profit for years and so no gain to existing shareholders but it helps meet the market capitalisation, revenue and possibly EBITDA milestones. Too much incentive for Musk to turn Tesla into a sprawling empire rather than remaining tightly focused on what they are good at.

>"Cashflow is also ignored"
The DA part depreciation and amortisation does make EBITDA more cash flow related than GAAP profit.

Cash flow can be better for investment appraisal but the value part is better done by market capitalisation part of the incentive scheme so I would say EBITDA doesn't make sense for that reason here. I see this as more relevant than any issue in ignoring loan repayment dates but ymmv.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5867 on: July 21, 2020, 06:02:48 PM »
Interesting to note that despite Tesla's huge (and some would argue, blown up) market cap, it has not done what many companies do as they grow meteorically - issue more shares at progressively higher prices and make huge acquisitions. As such behavior usually ends in a huge bust, I would say Tesla has been run rather conservatively, at least in this regard.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5868 on: July 22, 2020, 01:14:38 AM »
Reuters confirms.

Tesla's Musk qualifies for $2.1 billion payday
Quote
(Reuters) - Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk qualified on Tuesday for a payout worth an unprecedented $2.1 billion, his second jackpot since May from the electric car maker following its massive stock surge.

Tesla’s stock was down 3% in afternoon trading, eroding a recent rally that has elevated the company’s market capitalization to almost $300 billion, larger than any other carmaker.

Despite Tuesday’s stock dip, and importantly for Musk’s personal finances, Tesla’s six-month average market capitalization for the first time has reached $150 billion. That triggers the vesting of the second of 12 tranches of options granted to the billionaire in his 2018 pay package to buy Tesla stock at a discount. Musk, who is also majority owner and CEO of the SpaceX rocket maker, receives no salary.

Even with Tuesday’s decline in Tesla’s stock, its six-month average market capitalization rose, thanks to the stock’s strong rally in recent months.

In early May, Musk’s first tranche vested after Tesla’s six-month average stock market value reached $100 billion.

Musk has already achieved targets related to Tesla’s financial growth that are also required in order to vest the latest options tranche.

Each tranche gives Musk the option to buy 1.69 million Tesla shares at $350.02 each, less than a quarter of their current price. At Tesla’s current stock price of $1,594, Musk would theoretically be able to sell the shares related to the tranche that vested in May and the current tranche for a combined profit of $4.2 billion, or almost $2.1 billion per tranche.

Musk’s first tranche was worth about $700 million in May, when it vested, but its value has since increased along with Tesla’s stock price.
...
Tesla’s stock has surged more than 500% over the past year as the company increased sales of its Model 3 sedan. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-stocks-musk-idUSKCN24M2PL
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5869 on: July 22, 2020, 03:07:58 AM »
”However, he cannot immediately sell these shares. The CEO’s bonus structure states that he cannot let go of the newly obtain shares for five years, Bloomberg reported.”

“The next tranche requires Tesla to reach a six-month average market capitalization of $200 billion, and either post revenue of $35 billion or $3 billion in adjusted earnings before taxes, interest, depreciation, and amortization over four consecutive quarters.”


https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-second-tranche/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5870 on: July 22, 2020, 03:22:05 PM »
Well, ceo motivational packages aside, we will find out whether they made a profit or not in just a few short hours.

I am much more interested in this.

Quote
According to sources who are reportedly familiar with the electric car maker’s plans, Gigafactory Berlin could produce up to 2 million vehicles per year.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-berlin-2m-vehicles-per-year-media/amp/

Did someone really ask and get an answer or did they do the math? Giga Shanghai 86 hectares 500k vehicles per year.Giga Berlin, 300 hectares, number of vehicles per year??

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5871 on: July 22, 2020, 06:17:23 PM »
Well, ceo motivational packages aside, we will find out whether they made a profit or not in just a few short hours.

I am much more interested in this.

Quote
According to sources who are reportedly familiar with the electric car maker’s plans, Gigafactory Berlin could produce up to 2 million vehicles per year.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-berlin-2m-vehicles-per-year-media/amp/

Did someone really ask and get an answer or did they do the math? Giga Shanghai 86 hectares 500k vehicles per year.Giga Berlin, 300 hectares, number of vehicles per year??

Well, if I recall correctly, the 500k/year number cited for the factory was just for the (partial?) ramp of “Phase 1.”  Plus, Giga Berlin manufacturing may not be directly comparable to other factories:
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 7/10/20, 12:47 PM
Berlin Model Y is the one to watch. That is a revolution in automotive body engineering (finally).
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1281631025366355969
 

=======
Stock price bets:

Options traders bet Tesla’s earnings report will add $75 billion to the stock’s market cap
Quote
“Most of that activity was concentrated in the weekly 2,000-strike calls.  Almost 20,000 of those traded for around about $25 [per contract]. Buyers of those calls are obviously betting that the stock could go above that $2,000 strike price by the end of the week.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/options-bet-tesla-earnings-report-add-75-billion-to-market-cap.html

Liquidity may be a surprising factor.  Many Tesla stockholders will not be offering their shares for sale at this time.

In a recent Twitter poll about selling TSLA stock soon, with more than 2,200 votes, 80% said “Not selling ANY, period”.
(Yes, I know, retail investors are a small part of the market compared to institutional buyers. But brokerages have been making margin calls for a reason....)
https://twitter.com/stevenmarkryan/status/1285577698019074050
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5872 on: July 22, 2020, 08:58:10 PM »
I see YouTube is reporting that Austin won the Cybertruck facility race.

I'm waiting to see it confirmed in print.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5873 on: July 22, 2020, 11:20:47 PM »

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5874 on: July 22, 2020, 11:33:51 PM »
EBITDA looks like $4.418bn so that is well past 2nd milestone of $3bn and getting close to 3rd EBITDA milestone
Revenue $25.7 bn so only one Revenue milestone.

May well not be long before 3rd and 4th tranches are exercisable.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5875 on: July 22, 2020, 11:35:45 PM »
Q&A session:
next factory 15 min from Austin

BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5876 on: July 22, 2020, 11:53:27 PM »
Extremely positive results with all parts of the business growing at a time when business is badly affected by a pandemic. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5877 on: July 23, 2020, 12:43:24 AM »
Tesla, Inc. Q2 2020 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast | Tesla, Inc.
Jul 22, 2020   

Webpage:
https://ir.tesla.com/events/event-details/tesla-inc-q2-2020-financial-results-and-qa-webcast

Q2 2020 Update Report, slides: 
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/f41f4254-f1cc-4929-a0b6-6623b00475a6 

Reconfirmed 500,000 vehicle target for 2020.  Giga Texas (already under construction) will make cybertruck, semi, and Models 3 & Y for eastern US.  Fremont will expand to 500,000 capacity for western US, including Roadster.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2020, 01:00:12 AM by Sigmetnow »
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5878 on: July 23, 2020, 01:47:34 AM »
Looking through the presentation I had some takeaways.

On profitability.

Quote
These  positive  contributions  were  offset  by  significant  costs related  to  factory  shutdowns,  as  well  as  a  sequential  increase  in  nonCEO  award  milestones. cash  SBC  expense  primarily  attributable  to  $101M  related  to 2018 CEO award milestone. 

The global delivery stats were interesting.

On solar

Quote
Solar  Roof  installations  roughly  tripled  in  Q2  compared  to  Q1.  We  continue  to expand  our  installation  team  to  increase  the  deployment  rate.

Yes, yes, I know, GSY will claim that they installed all 3 in Q2.

On cash flow

Quote
We should  have  sufficient  liquidity  to  fund  our  product  roadmap,  long expenses.

Don't expect a rights issue soon. Although I would not rule it out if shares continue to rise.

On production the installed capacity is 690k per year before Shanghai phase 2 goes live.  So 500k is looking viable.

All in all a pretty impressive earnings beat and very healthy.

Care to contrast Ford or GM?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5879 on: July 23, 2020, 01:52:05 AM »
From the webcast:

Elon wants Nickel.  And “high-energy actuaries who want to change things” for Tesla Insurance.

Also manufacturing engineers, who actually get to change the product design to make manufacturing more efficient, as well as designing the next generation of “the machine that builds the machine.”

300-mile [~500km] range will be the new normal (providing buffer for heat/cold/mountainous terrain).
Newer Model 3 & Y energy efficiency has improved so much (power train, HVAC, etc.) that iron phosphate batteries will work.  This frees capacity for the higher-density cells for other vehicles and uses.
Elon:  “Please mine more nickel — in environmentally sensitive and efficient ways.  Call us.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5880 on: July 23, 2020, 02:05:00 AM »
During the Q1 2020 Earnings Call, Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn detailed that the new factory would be the company’s largest yet.
Tesla selects Texas as home to its next US factory
Quote
Tesla has selected Texas as the location for its next US factory. The factory will be the company’s second in North America and located about 15 minutes from downtown Austin and near the Colorado River.

Billed as Tesla’s “Cybertruck Gigafactory”, the facility will be the main production plant for its upcoming all-electric Cybertruck and Model 3/Model Y vehicles for customers in the eastern half of the US.

“It will be stunning. It’s right by the Colorado River. It will have a boardwalk… It will be an ecological paradise. It will be open to the public as well,” Musk noted. ... 
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-texas/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5881 on: July 23, 2020, 10:57:36 AM »
At 90 to 160 wh/kg efficiency would have to double in order to be competitive for LiFePO4 batteries.

I can't imagine Tesla trying to sell a M3/Y with a lower range than a Taycan.  Not after everything they have said about it.

Perhaps we will learn something about this in September.
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igs

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5882 on: July 23, 2020, 02:17:45 PM »
Sorry if that has been posted but cannot read all to find out:


https://electrek.co/2020/07/21/tesla-secret-project-palladium-new-model-s-model-x/
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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5883 on: July 23, 2020, 02:52:02 PM »
At 90 to 160 wh/kg efficiency would have to double in order to be competitive for LiFePO4 batteries.

I can't imagine Tesla trying to sell a M3/Y with a lower range than a Taycan.  Not after everything they have said about it.

Perhaps we will learn something about this in September.

I think we may already be seeing the answer from china
https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1272565937544155136?s=20

"Last week MIIT updated its list of vehicles to include SR M3 W/ LFP battery, revealing 468km range, 1745kg body weight. For ref, same variant w/ LG NCM battery has 445km range & 1614kg. Due to same weight w/ LR M3, M3 w/ LFP B may share same suspension gears. "

A new version with slightly more range than the existing SR and 130kg  heavier. 






KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5884 on: July 23, 2020, 08:36:23 PM »
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-what-tslaq-got-wrong-chamath-tsla/
Venture capitalist explains how Tesla critics missed the big picture on TSLA

Quote
“So from Day 1, you’ve had this massive tension between the bulls and the bears on this company, and the bulls, basically saw a long term trend around electrification, and the bears tried to play with balance sheet mathematics. Of course, if I said ‘You can sell 90,000 cars, but then if you negative sell 100,000, then you’ve not sold 10,000.’ And you would say, ‘What does any of this mean?’ You can use any convoluted logic to try to be short this stock, and what you would have done is just lost an enormous amount of money.

“And so, what we’re gonna see now is that the stock will be part of the S&P 500. It is the leading edge when it comes to electrification and decarbonization, and here’s something, what the bulls would get right and what the bears will ignore from here is that this is no longer about cars. That that’s the first wave of growth, and I think people are pricing in an evisceration of traditional autos and an enormous shift to EVs, of which Tesla will get the disproportionate share,” he said. 
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5885 on: July 23, 2020, 09:14:37 PM »
As Bloomberg said, Q2 was a home run for Tesla. You don't need EBITDA when you make a profit for real.

And Tesla's share price is currently at $1,509, down $82,  5.2%. Why?

Fear has re-entered the market - US weekly jobless claims up, EU economic recovery stalled.
High-flyers always more vulnerable when reality calls.

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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5886 on: July 23, 2020, 09:28:50 PM »
Bears and shorts have always ignored the vertical integration of Tesla.  Once it became obvious that Tesla was going to make it and make it big, the vertical integration was going to be a massive obstacle to the traditional manufacturers.

The incumbents, for decades, have been spreading their technology horizontally to force suppliers to carry the stock for jit manufacturing.  However this causes a problem and the VW ID series is a classic.  Bought a technology from Continental for compute power.  A model with 1 - 3 nodes.  But now your software DEV team is building a new os on another companies firmware and then loading apps on top of that.

Just imagine, as a developer, developing for 3 different sets of  firmware where the presence of a compute unit and the firmware level of that unit might be the difference between the software working and failing.  How do you even sort out the mess when some vehicles work and others fail and you don't know if it is your code or theirs.

Imagine trying to do a full system update on that and the condition checking which would have to be done.  One mistake and you have a still life on your drive until an engineer with a box turns up and de bricks it.

Battery pack quality, Tesla specs were thought to be over exacting, one single dent and the cell was rejected.  But when you are using upwards of 7bn cells a year, that single fent is a reality and not a statistical anomaly.  Can other manufacturers guarantee the same quality when they receive whole packs, Pre made?

The down side of this vertical integration, components, charging, power, FSD and robotaxi, insurance etc, is that the competition regulators will, eventually, come after them.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5887 on: July 24, 2020, 02:30:35 AM »
Excepts from the Q2 2020 earnings call transcript:
Quote
Elon: “Like I said, it's just an honor to work with such a great team. And as a result, we were able to achieve our fourth consecutive profitable quarter. And although the automotive industry was down about 30% year over year in the first half of the year, we managed to grow deliveries in the first half of the year. So despite that massive industry decline, we actually went up.

We're also very excited to announce that we're going to be building our next Gigafactory in Texas. It's going to be right near Austin. It will be about -- I'll just go into a bit of detail on this, and then I'm sure there'll be a lot of questions. But the location is five minutes from Austin National Airport and 15 minutes from Downtown Austin.

And it's about 2,000 acres, and we're going to make it a factory that is going to be stunning. It's right on the Colorado River, so there's actually going to be a boardwalk where there'll be a hiking and biking trail. It's going to basically be an ecological paradise, birds in the trees, butterfly, fish in the stream, and they will be open to the public as well. So not closed and only Tesla.”

Elon: “… it would be reasonable to assume that we would make a compact vehicle of some kind and probably a higher-capacity [fast?] vehicle of some kind. These are likely things at some point, but I do think there's a long way to go with 3 and Y and with Cybertruck and Semi. So it's a long way to go with those. I think we'll do the obvious things.”

Elon: “Solar. We recently adjusted -- recently adjusted the pricing of our retrofit solar. So Tesla Solar is the lowest-cost solar in the United States, and we added the lowest-cost guarantee and a money-back guarantee. So we're very confident that people will have our solar product, whether it's the Solar Retrofit, the Solar Roof.

Our Solar is now 30% cheaper than the U.S. average. After the Federal Tax Credit, Tesla Solar now costs $1.49 per watt. And it's very simple, highly automated, single-click experience.“

Elon:  “And then for Full Self-Driving, we launched traffic [lights and] stop signs, and we continue to improve that to make them more robust. And we're currently testing Full Self-Driving software for intersections and city streets and narrow streets. So I personally tested the latest Alpha build of the Full Self-Driving software when I drive my car, and it is really, I think, profoundly better than people realize, yes, really profound. It's like amazing. So it's almost getting to a point where I can go from my house to work with no interventions despite going through construction and widely varying situations. So this is why I'm very confident about its Full Self- Driving functionality being complete by the end of this year. It's because I'm literally driving it. In conclusion, I'd like to, again, say thanks for all the hard work of the Tesla team, achieving our first full year of profitability in the company history.

It was incredibly difficult and just as a result of the hard work of a lot of people from Tesla worldwide. And yes, just think about the next 12 to 18 months, we'll have three new factories in place. Things are looking great with Giga Berlin, and we'll have Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Full Self-Driving. There's so much to be excited about.”
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2020/07/23/tesla-tsla-q2-2020-earnings-call-transcript.aspx
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5888 on: July 24, 2020, 06:34:26 PM »
& despite all this genuinely good news......

Share price $1,432.2002 USD
Down US$ 81,  -5.3%

That's quite a drop in the last 2 days. Markets are weird.

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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5889 on: July 24, 2020, 07:26:40 PM »
& despite all this genuinely good news......

Share price $1,432.2002 USD
Down US$ 81,  -5.3%

That's quite a drop in the last 2 days. Markets are weird.

Or maybe it is just rational expectations at work:

If lots of people bought shares expecting a big jump up due to shortage and they bought more than needed by trackers etc then there might be more than sufficient supply for the demand.

By the time everyone is talking about index inclusion causing a shortage of supply then it is probably too late and the price increase has already happened.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5890 on: July 24, 2020, 07:35:33 PM »
Given the trend was around 700 a few months ago, it is still not so bad.  If it settles around 1500, is this such a bad thing?  Considering where it was a year ago?

At least if it stabilises at 1,500, then it has an opportunity to double again in the next 18 months.

Even if it were to drop to 1,000, it would hardly be considered a disaster.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5891 on: July 24, 2020, 09:20:51 PM »
Anything over 750 is still good. Doubling in a year .
I don't see Tesla having a reason for using the high  share price to expand by buying legacy business their business model  is driving bankrupt.
There also is not the motivation to grow for the sake of increasing the remuneration of its leading officers as drives  some company's expansion.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5892 on: July 24, 2020, 10:09:59 PM »
The financial “macro environment” is down across the board, too — I’m seeing coronavirus, US-China tensions, and the looming Fed meeting cited as reasons.  Even positive stocks get dragged down with it. 
The world could change by Monday. ;)
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5893 on: July 24, 2020, 10:11:38 PM »
The world could change by Monday.

2020 in a nutshell...
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5894 on: July 24, 2020, 10:25:33 PM »
They might, however, use the power of the share price to snap up some cutting edge businesses which would leverage their current advantage even further.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5895 on: July 25, 2020, 03:06:23 AM »
 ;D
Quote
Earl of :'( stonks (@28delayslater) 7/24/20, 9:06 AM
$TSLA is so awful, the whole market is down. [ ;) ]
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1286648837915004928

Kevin Reiling (@kevin_reiling) 7/24/20, 9:56 AM

Couple day drops are not uncommon, last one was a good set up for a long rally...
https://twitter.com/kevin_reiling/status/1286661427298816001
[Chart below.]

< Your chart is showing great support on the SMA 20 doesn't it?
Kevin Reiling: Yes it does, great observation!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5896 on: July 25, 2020, 06:45:38 PM »
Quote
@GF4Tesla...build #GigaBerlin. (@Gf4Tesla) 7/24/20, 12:17 PM
#GIGABERLIN
July 24 / 2020
+++Weekend update+++
- in the ( DU ) drive unit, first piles, roof structures and walls were set.
- In the ( BW ) body in white, first piles were set.
- in the ( PT ) paint, work on the roof has begun.
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1286697090660339712
~2 min clip at the twitter link; full 10-min vide below.

Tesla Giga Berlin, July 24/ 2020 . Walls and roof structures in (DU) drive unit section
[You may want to mute the music. ;) ]
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5897 on: July 25, 2020, 08:19:25 PM »
Volkswagen believes the pandemic has actually made the EV transition inevitable because cleaner air and charging at home will become more important in the future.

Volkswagen’s CEO Says Tesla—or Volkswagen—Could Be the Most Valuable Company in the World Soon
July 25, 2020
Quote
After Tesla reported better-than-expected second-quarter numbers, Wall Street yawned, essentially saying the numbers were good, not great. Plaudits rained down, however, from an unusual place: Germany.

Dr. Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, director of the Center for Automotive Research in Duisburg, sang Tesla’s praises in a LinkedIn post written in German.

“While almost the entire [car business] sinks into losses in Q2, Tesla makes $327 million in profits in the operating business,” he wrote, according to a Google Translate translation of the post. “Classic car manufacturers have to get faster.”

In a surprising turn, Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess responded to the post. “Elon Musk delivers results that many thought was impossible. They show that you can be profitable with electric cars,” he wrote, according to a Google Translate translation. He added, “Tesla will drive through the corona[virus] crisis without a loss quarter. It confirms me: in five to ten years the most valuable company in the world will be a mobility company—Tesla, Apple [APPL] or Volkswagen.” ...
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-has-a-giant-fan-germanys-vw-51595601718
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5898 on: July 25, 2020, 10:23:18 PM »
It will be interesting to see how Tesla's share price fares against overall market sentiment...

Bloomberg Headlines today

The Message Behind Gold’s Rally: The World Economy Is in Trouble

Summers Warns U.S. Economy in Grave Danger If Stimulus Lapses

Bond Market Eyeing Record-Low Yields Set for Nudge From the Fed

Bubble Angst Rears Its Head in Nasdaq, Striking Fear Into Bulls

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5899 on: July 25, 2020, 11:15:39 PM »
Quote
—— TSLA Stock price
TSLA is trading in the $1,745 range this morning, after jumping to $1,795 shortly after the open.
Will it skip the 1600’s like it did the 1,400’s?
Well it skipped both the 1600s and 1500s, and closed at $1497...
Blow off the top?
The volatility is unbelievable.
For anybody wondering why the very good news from the report resulted in lackluster share performance, I think the "blow off the top" explains it well, much better than general market sentiment. The pool of greater bulls has temporarily run out, probably mixed with some kind of short squeeze/FOMO squeeze, and suddenly everybody became stuck with the goods with no new buyers coming. Now it may take a while for the market to rebalance, in a more rational manner.