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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6100 on: September 19, 2020, 01:19:08 PM »

Where does that come from? I haven't said anything of the sort.

So you did not ask me if I had read the statement that a tesla was driving on the wrong side of the road without a driver?
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6101 on: September 19, 2020, 01:31:53 PM »
And that can happen with any normal car (with driver but that is not an issue) so that is not really relevant.

If you have the self drive system the car should stick to local speed limits.

Whilst this sounds good, it doesn't pass the common sense test.

I have been reaction tested and can drive right up to race speeds.  However I have been driven by people who are challenged at the posted speed limit and struggle to react to the traffic around them.

So, if the driver is determined to speed, should I want a human driver with unknown ability to speed or should I prefer an AI system with millisecond responses, drive path analytics and built in collision avoidance technology??

It is something to contemplate that road speeds, in an AI driving future, may be limeted by vehicle capability and road traffic conditions.  So long as the driver is not a human.

Vertical thinking in a fast moving technology is unlikely to keep up with the times.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6102 on: September 19, 2020, 04:03:22 PM »
...
If you have the self drive system the car should stick to local speed limits.

Sounds logical.  But in areas (particularly on the highway) where normal traffic flow is 5 to 10 mph or more above the speed limit, driving strictly at the speed limit is more likely to cause an accident — so some flexibility is needed.  Tesla Cruise Control is limited to 90 mph (150 km/h), though.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6103 on: September 19, 2020, 07:39:35 PM »
No estimates on solar energy?

There are some indications that Tesla solar sales may be increasing.

Elon Musk Explains Why Tesla Solar Power Is So Cheap — CleanTechnica Exclusive
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/12/elon-musk-explains-why-tesla-solar-power-is-so-cheap-cleantechnica-exclusive/

Quote
It isn’t cheap having sales people walk around neighborhood after neighborhood trying to get people to make a purchase of something that costs thousands or tens of thousands of dollars, even if it will save them money in the mid to long term. Tesla can just send out some tweets, sell solar through its existing stores, and push solar indirectly through Tesla owner referral codes.

Despite knowing this and a few other ways Tesla might be able to cut costs, I felt like I didn’t have solid enough evidence to explain Tesla’s low solar power price to the world. So, I asked Tesla CEO Elon Musk about it. He responded:

“Solar panel cost is only ~50 cents/Watt. Mounting hardware, inverter and wiring is ~25 cents/Watt. Installation is ~50 cents/Watt, depending on system size.

“The other solar companies spend heavily on salespeople, advertising and complex financing instruments. We do not.”

So, that’s that — Tesla spends approximately 75 cents a watt on the hardware and approximately 50 cents a watt on the installation cost, adding up to ~$1.25/watt. Another 76 cents a watt covers some additional soft costs while also presumably providing a small profit.

Tesla partners with other companies to install solar roof tiles
https://electrek.co/2020/09/14/tesla-partners-thid-party-companies-install-solar-roof-tiles/

Quote
Good Faith Energy, one of the biggest solar installers in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, just confirmed that they are now authorized to install Tesla solar roofs, and they installed their first solar roof system.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6104 on: September 20, 2020, 10:06:47 AM »
It all sounds like a good story but lacking the numbers to back it up. I believe Musk is still trying to justify the disastrous Solar City merger, by talking up Tesla's solar and throwing more development money at the problem. I think the value proposition for residential solar is simply not strong enough, unless the buyer is a die-hard environmentalist. Otherwise this would be selling like hot buns to the general population, which obviously it isn't.
Eventually Tesla might get there, who knows? but they are not there yet, and seemingly quite far away.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6105 on: September 20, 2020, 10:36:42 AM »
There were 683,000 new homes built in the US in 2019.  There is an opportunity, should people have a need, for Tesla to deliver solar roofs to them.

Today buyers don't have that much of a need, government subsidies are cut and energy prices are fluctuating with all the renewables on the grid.

But as Tesla begins to sell more and more EV's to the US, even as much as 3 million a year of them, the chances that an EV owner will buy a new house increases.

There is ample evidence that Tesla is willing to play a long game, why should we not expect them to do so with Solar?

Tesla is now a roaring success, it is clear they are not going to die and it is clear that they innovate faster than their competitors.  It is also clear that they decided that a race to the bottom on solar without subsidies was not the way to go.

If you think about the automotive business, the incumbents have been on a race to the bottom for the family car for decades.  So much so that any disruption in JIT supply chains or in the smooth running of the economy, drives them to the verge of bankruptcy.  Did Tesla attempt to emulate them? No it did not and TeslaQ was the result of not being conventional.

Ask yourself two things.

When, not if, it becomes mandatory for new homes to collect solar energy, which company will be best positioned to sell a seamless product which looks best?

How long does it take to produce a quality competing product?

Tesla had a master plan that dovetailed with a solar energy business which complemented each other.  The crash in subsidies nearly killed the complementing business and that was certainly not in the master plan. So what do you do?  Do you let it go and hope? Or do you buy the technology, staff and facilities and quietly rebuild it into the master plan and ramp up at the right point?

After all Tesla solar may not be the #1 installer of solar energy in the US, but it is hardly last and it is making a profit.

I think people are too hung up on a Tesla, not making a profit, struggling to innovate solar and losing money on the energy business. It is worth repeating that this is NO LONGER THE CASE.

Take a step back, then ask yourself whether having the solar business, ten years from now, will be beneficial for Tesla or not.

I happen to think it will strongly benefit Tesla.  In that case a ++ for Tesla could be worth ten times the purchase cost of Solar City in real margin on the sales of millions of Tesla cars.

Now subject that viewpoint to a business case and see where you get,.

It is hardly as if Tesla shareholders have lost out on the deal.  If they sold their shares on the back of it, more fool them.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6106 on: September 20, 2020, 07:27:25 PM »
Herewith, a few Twitter ➡️ threads by knowledgeable folks, in preparation for Battery Day
Quote
JPR007 (@jpr007) 9/20/20, 3:51 AM
A PRIMER FOR BATTERY DAY
This is a lengthy thread
- so get some popcorn and settle down to a relaxing read
- the punch lines are many all the way through to the end
This is not an attempt to predict all of Battery Day
- it is just a primer on one aspect - SIZE
➡️ https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1307588260332318720
Quote
Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) 9/20/20, 11:04 AM
Thank you [JPR007] for this detailed and thoughtful analysis! @ARKInvest is debating whether these advancements will keep Tesla on pace with Wright’s Law: an 18% decline in the cost of EV’s battery pack systems for every cumulative doubling in EV demand, or …
~ Are they more fundamental breakthroughs? Would a 90%+ decline in each of the three important variables - assembly line labor costs, cell cost saving per unit of energy, and factory floor space - change the slope of the line, accelerating the decline in costs from 18%?
~ According to @skorusARK research, other companies focused on EVs are three to four years behind $TSLA in battery technology already. The question is whether these breakthroughs will help #Tesla pull away even faster.
https://twitter.com/cathiedwood/status/1307697225594744835

Quote
Sam Korus (@skorusARK) 9/20/20, 11:17 AM
Two tweet threads with background research on Wright's Law and Tesla's advantage:
➡️ https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1166377459681517573

➡️ https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1133735905490034688
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1307700294902525953
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6107 on: September 20, 2020, 08:24:13 PM »
Home solar - car.
Oil production, refining, distribution -car
Electricity generation - grid - car .
Cut out the fiscal drag of the  grid infrastructure or between crude oil and gasoline at the pump .
That is what Tony Seba has been saying is one of the most distributive forces on the legacy industry's business  model .
I also think offering a seamless integration between your solar , .storage and your car will give an  advantage to Tesla .
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6108 on: September 20, 2020, 10:13:07 PM »
Solar will be a long term benefit to Tesla but solar city was a waste of money. Musk unwound the company almost completely and rebuilt it from the ground up. It would have been easier and cheaper to just start from scratch. Solar city was unprofitable, their liabilities exceeded there assets. They were competing on price and/or service. Their reputation was crap. There was no business reason to buy them.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6109 on: September 21, 2020, 01:14:56 PM »
The acquisition of SolarCity by Tesla cost shareholders, who kept the shares, essentially nothing.  In fact TeslaQ has cost Tesla shareholders 10 times more than the SolarCity acquisition did.

Yes SolarCity carried 3.4bn in debt and was insolvent.  But it won't be the first time one company has bought out another insolvent company.  Also all this BS about waiting until the company has died before picking over the corpse of parts which you might want is not a winning formula.  Normally a company is distress will wind up with discrete sales of parts to different buyers and had Tesla bought out all the parts it wanted, it is likely that it would have been bound up in Chapter11 for a decade before they could get anywhere.

SolarCity, even with the debt, was less than 30% of Tesla market cap at the time.  It is less than 1.5% today.

SolarCity had synergies with Tesla, was collaborating with Tesla on power control software and had IP in the production of vehicle chargers.

Nobody but Tesla know just how many products (Supercharger V2/3, grid scale power software, megapack systems), come from the SolarCity acquisition.

As for stripping the company, Tesla needed to survive.  It is quite likely that the all share acquisition was just big enough to allow the Model3 to get out of the door before they ran out of money.

I doubt we'll ever know.  What we do know is that the combined company has a value neither companies could have expected apart.

Now if Tesla was still struggling, if TeslaQ were still making a fortune driving Tesla shares down, then we might be able to debate that SolarCity was a bad buy for Tesla.

Today, it's irrelevant and the court cases are nothing more than an attempt to grab some cash back from Tesla due to bad investment decisions.

I don't say Musk is a saint and Tesla is perfect.  Neither are.  I'm saying this piece of history needs to be consigned there.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6110 on: September 21, 2020, 01:53:12 PM »
You do not have to cheerlead Tesla on each and every item. The Solar City acquisition gave a lot of ammunition to TeslaQ at a time when Tesla almost went under. Musk himself said several times how close it was. Besides, the added debt weighed on Tesla, and the loss of management focus and the expenditures on R&D and sales - trying to prove the tiles were real and the whole thing super-justified  - did not help either. Now when money is secure and risk of bankruptcy is nil it looks fine, but between 2016 and 2020 there was a gulf the company barely crossed. Tesla did not need solar during that time, and it probably doesn't need solar even now. It did need to get model 3 successfully out the door and solve production issues before money and investor confidence ran out.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6111 on: September 21, 2020, 03:10:10 PM »
I'm not cheerleading.  I, personally, believe what I said.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.  Musk says he wouldn't do it again knowing what he knows now.  No, neither would I.  Given the sheer nightmare it was to get M3 into volume production.  But Musk didn't know that.

So what all the downside, etc, means is that they believe Musk put $7.48bn of his stake in Tesla at serious risk to rescue his $0.5bn stake in SC.

Brass tacks, that is what is being said.  Do you honestly believe, put that way, that this is what Musk was thinking?

I prefer to believe that he thought Tesla was on the launch ramp to success, 2018 was going to be the year of glory and by 2020 they'd be producing 1.5m vehicles a year and SC would be a complementing business which flourished in the Tesla funds available to it.

Reasons for believing the alternative would be nice.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6112 on: September 21, 2020, 04:31:27 PM »
Complaints about the Solar City purchase being financially detrimental miss the point that Tesla’s core mission of accelerating the transition to sustainability is, by traditional measures, financially detrimental.  “We’re gonna do it anyway.”

There are no stockholder proposals concerning solar in tomorrow’s shareholder meeting.  Investors agree Tesla’s path is rocky but right.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6113 on: September 23, 2020, 09:32:20 AM »
Well if they said it once, they said it a dozen times during battery day, "our company mission is to increase the speed of renewable energy adoption".  The implication of that is "we are not running this company to make profits for investors".  I'm pretty sure that Tesla will never issue a dividend before renewable energy and EV are totally pervasive, which means some time in the 2030 to 2040 bracket.

I have been going through the initial articles on the event.  The Verge is typical, misses almost all the points.  a $25k car is the "result" of the advances, not the main event.  Teslarati does a good job, especially to point out the part about Tesla doing metallurgy to create a new aluminium alloy which flows better when being pressed.

Here are the two biggest take-aways for me.

Tesla looked at the blockages to their car adoption.  Even at SR, with a model 3, the battery is going to cost over $5k.  It is also constrained to range with the current chemistry.  So Tesla looked for a way to reduce the cost of those cells.  Shaving off more than $2,500 from a SR pack is huge.  But what is it for the Semi?  Or they Cybertruck?

This is what Tesla does.  Gets a product out there, forces it by main awkwardness into volume production and then starts digging into how and why it is not fast enough or cheap enough.  Then solves them.

The second take-away for me is that Project Roadrunner is not just about batteries.  The video's were well chosen and the script was done very carefully.  But you do have to listen.  In the middle of the discussion on the flow of producing batteries, Elon starts to talk about the speed of a vehicle going through a manufacturing plant and the stop start which reduces the % speed of the production.  He estimated about 2% but thought they could bring it up to 30%.  That is worth thinking about.  An aptly named project.

It was useful to take a step back and review the parts they covered very quickly.  They analysed every element of the battery and the process to produce it.  Even the charging.  They used their existing powerwall hardware and software to do the initial charging of the cells in highly dense arrays of charging infrastructure.  I'm pretty sure they also integrated testing into it and  made this step as seamless and as fast as possible.

They are reducing the density of the factory by nearly 10x, increasing output for that form factor by 7x.  Will use different chemistries for different needs.  Didn't talk much about range increases because, I believe, they will use the extra efficiencies to provide the same range with cheaper, more available, but lower power density, metals.

Plenty of reference to the fact that water is minimal in the production too.  Just in time for the Giga Berlin concerns meeting today.

The key fact?  12-18 months before we see the real fruit of this technology in real production.  Meaning that starting some time in 2022, we should see all Tesla factories start to push out more vehicles for the same infrastructure.

Very interesting reveal.  Although I'm sure that some will be less happy that we didn't hear about wonder technology which gave us 50,000 charge cycles at 600wh/kg.  Personally that was enough for me.  Guaranteed that Tesla won't sit on this and keep pushing it out.  They will be developing new batteries and new technologies that make this current iteration redundant in 3 - 5 years.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6114 on: September 23, 2020, 03:26:40 PM »
Tesla Battery Day!  Speakers were on an outdoor stage, in front of a big screen… at the end of a parking lot filled with Teslas!
Attendees were each assigned a car, and the audio was broadcast over the radio — yes, Tesla Drive-in Theater!  (But the cars had PIN To Drive enabled, so no one could drive away. ;))  Attendees applauded and cheered by honking horns! ;D It was 95°, so the cars’ air conditioning was appreciated. 

My notes:
Goal: The world needs about 10 tWh/yr to transition to electric transportation and energy storage.  Today’s gigawatt-hr factories are too small.  The $/kWh curve has flattened.
Plan: Terawatt-hr battery production, on a smaller footprint than today’s gigawatt factories.  Make factory space more efficient. Cut the cost per kWh in half.
Tesla’s new cells are still cylindrical, but “4680” size.  [46mm diameter, 80mm length] Pilot plant now, expect about a year to ramp to 10 gWh, 100 gWh in 2022, 3 tWh/yr goal in 2030.
Improvements on Maxwell’s dry battery. New: powder onto film, eliminates massive chemical use and waste water.
Reduction of manufacturing line footprint by over 75% by this alone.
Lithium from clay. 10,000 acres in Nevada. “Remove a chunk of dirt, extract the Lithium (acid-free, saline extraction), replace the dirt.” 
“There’s enough lithium in North America to replace the entire U.S. fleet.”
Coming: Single-piece castings for entire front and rear of car (new aluminum alloy, strong without coating or heat treatment)
New batteries will form a part of the vehicle’s structure, without assembly into a pack.  Denser packing allows more distance between batteries and side of vehicle, lessening risk of rupture in a crash.

Overall:
56% reduction in $/kWh
54% increase in Range
69% less investment per gWh
Will take 12-18 months to start realizing this improvement; ~3 years to fully realize.

Recycling - will increase as EV volume increases. Tesla expects to replace 20 million vehicles/yr.

$25,000 car in about 3 years! (They said this several times.)  “Will be fully autonomous.”

Cybertruck: over ~600,000 orders.  First version will be to U.S. specs, since U.S. is largest market.  Will eventually make a smaller version for other markets.

In other news: Model S Plaid opened for orders. $140,000 base price. Almost $100k cheaper than loaded Taycan Turbo S, and more than twice the range (520+ miles — slightly more than Lucid’s claimed 517).

Watch replay here:
➡️https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds

Reflex Research:  Tesla’s new Fremont battery “pilot line” design capacity at 10 GWh is equal to >50% of the global Li-ion battery production in 2010.
I believe Tesla's single cell "pilot line" operating at Kato road Fremont would place in the top ten largest cell factories globally and contribute ~5% of 2019 global supply. twitter.com/ReflexFunds/st…
https://twitter.com/reflexfunds/status/1308734538378612737
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6115 on: September 23, 2020, 04:01:52 PM »
GigaBerlin water supply is approved.
Quote
@GF4Tesla…build #GigaBerlin. (@Gf4Tesla) 9/23/20, 12:24 AM
#GigaBerlin
The topic " water " is 'off the table'.
The local water supplier ( WSE )
'Water board Straußberg - Erkner' has approved the development contract for the #GigaBerlin.
TESLA may use a maximum of 1.45 million cubic meters of water per year.
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1308623164113641479
⬇️ Recent photo of factory site below.
~ In the first application a water consumption of 3.3 million cubic meters was requested, which has now been reduced to about 1.5 million.

(Replying to a Battery Day question, Musk confirmed yesterday that cells would be manufactured at GigaBerlin.  The success of the new dry battery process may well have resulted in lower water needs than the original factory plan.)

Compare Nikola’s water woes at its announced factory site in the desert southwest of the U.S.:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2686.msg287130.html#msg287130
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6116 on: September 23, 2020, 06:36:46 PM »
Quote
Overall:
56% reduction in $/kWh
54% increase in Range
69% less investment per gWh
Will take 12-18 months to start realizing this improvement; ~3 years to fully realize.


Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6117 on: September 24, 2020, 12:23:43 AM »
—— Battery Day
Quote
Media: #Tesla has no moats
Tesla: please enjoy our moat presentation
Media: We don’t understand this 
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1308801153715580928

—-⬇️About the first image below:
Quote
James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) 9/22/20, 6:45 PM
This was the most important slide in the deck for a $TSLA investor.
This is @elonmusk’s hardcore smack down to anyone who still thinks EVs can’t be profitable.
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1308537937865388032
Elon Musk:  Yes

Reflex Research (@ReflexFunds) 9/23/20, 12:40 PM
"That slide means if you're invested in ICE vehicles, you're screwed".
https://twitter.com/reflexfunds/status/1308808431231537152

Tesla Battery Day Postmortem with Sandy Munro and Bob Galyen - Autoline Exclusives LIVE
 (90 minutes)
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKrFAcNgG40

"Are you kidding? What you just heard was the gospel according to EV. You can’t believe how excited we are here at Munro."
— Sandy Munro


—- Giga Texas
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 9/19/20, 11:51 PM
So this is terafactory texas.
3 buildings, with open green space in between. All together, it makes up the traditional diamond Gigafactory shape.
Walk through an ecological paradise moving between different parts of the factory.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1307527712085426177
⬇️ Image below.

Elon Musk:  Shaped like a diamond & aligned on true north
Elon Musk:  There’ll be lots of green space around factory, but building itself is continuous. The “open” areas inside are covered. They’re internal semi truck roads inside a giant monolithic building.
< Damn! So Semi trucks will actually be able to drive inside through the Texas factory.  Then efficiently deliver parts right to the line I guess?
Elon Musk:  Yes

Tesla Giga Texas - EXCLUSIVE SITE PLAN REVEAL! - 4K Day 55 - 9/15/20 - Gigafactory - Terafactory! - YouTube
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdzEhCNiCvw
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6118 on: September 24, 2020, 05:26:22 PM »
Musk also reiterated that the AP rewrite would go out to a closed public Beta within "about a month".

We understand this is Elon time, not real time, but it means we'll get some new FSD features and more FSD revenue released in the financials.

Also another point Elon made was around the battery lifecycle.  That when EV had replaced the entire US fleet, the new batteries would be recycled from the old with small incremental updates.  Making production even more important than raw materials in the long run.


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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6119 on: September 24, 2020, 07:23:25 PM »
Tesla signed a deal to get lithium at a fixed price from Piedmont Lithium.
On Battery Day, Musk noted the wastefulness of the current supply chain that moves material around the world several times for various processing before it becomes part of the final product.
Piedmont Lithium was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Australia, but they are opening a new mine in North Carolina, in the southeast US.  The pact is conditional on the two parties agreeing to a start date between July 2022 and July 2023.
Quote
Piedmont Lithium is an emerging lithium chemicals company focused on the development of its 100%-owned Piedmont Lithium Project in North Carolina, with the goal of becoming a strategic domestic supplier of battery-grade lithium hydroxide and other chemicals to the growing electric vehicle and battery storage markets in the United States.
https://piedmont-lithium.com

Quote
Piedmont Lithium (@PiedmontLithium) 8/13/20, 2:27 PM
Tesla's new Austin, TX Gigafactory will bring more jobs to the Southern U.S. paving the way for the South to become the epicenter for "regional, vertically-integrated, mine-to-manufacturing for EV supply chains," and the ideal source for critical minerals. 
https://twitter.com/piedmontlithium/status/1293977558082621441

Opinion: Is the Texas Tesla factory a tipping point? Linking mining to electric vehicle manufacturing will bring jobs to South
Quote
Tesla says its new factory it plans to build will make the company's upcoming Cybertruck electric pickup, as well as be a site for buildings its Model Y SUV. Tesla selected a location in Travis County for the factory. (Tesla/TNS)

Tesla’s announcement to build a new manufacturing hub in Austin for the production of the Cybertruck, Semi and the Model Y is the latest and greatest in what has been a growing trend to bring the electric vehicle supply chain to the southern United States. Mercedes and Volkswagen have announced plans to build EVs in Alabama and Tennessee, and SK Innovations plans to produce lithium-ion batteries for EVs in Georgia.

This represents of billions of dollars in investment that will create thousands of jobs. States traditionally dominated by conservative politics have an opportunity to embrace the future of American green energy.

In addition to advanced manufacturing, the southern U.S. can supply the critical raw materials necessary for these 21st century supply chains. The region is home to lithium from industrial brine waste in Arkansas or spodumene (hard rock lithium) in North Carolina, flake graphite in Alabama, cobalt and manganese in several different occurrences in the southern Appalachians and rare earth elements from ongoing heavy mineral sands operations in Florida and Georgia.

Sourcing these critical minerals locally would not only bring jobs to the region, but could also greatly reduce both U.S. dependency on China and the carbon footprints for these materials due to better mining practices, more energy-efficient grids for mineral processing, and reduced transport distances.

Some advocates of clean energy technology are still hesitant to support mining in the United States due to environmental and social concerns, but the two concepts are not mutually exclusive. Environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria has become a key factor for investment groups including Blackrock Asset Management, the largest asset manager in the world.

Communities of color and low-income areas are the most affected by pollution and climate change in the United States and around the world. Mineral extraction projects in the United States are held to a high environmental standard, are more transparent and have lower carbon footprints. ...
https://www-houstonchronicle-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/amp/Opinion-Is-the-Texas-Tesla-factory-a-tipping-15458211.php
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6120 on: September 25, 2020, 03:29:05 AM »
Tesla Battery Day In 15 Minutes (highlights)



Tesla Engineering Is 5-10 Years Ahead (w/Sandy Munro)
Sept 18, 2020
Fun vid by StevenMarkRyan.  Sandy giving Korean interview.  OEM’s are too comfortable, won’t make the changes they need to catch Tesla.



Terafactory Texas - 2020-09-24 Progress Update
That huge mobile log chipper! :o 8)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6121 on: September 25, 2020, 09:41:15 AM »
There goes another forest and potential food growing land. For shiny lazyness products for rich people.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6122 on: September 25, 2020, 12:41:33 PM »
Now if you were talking about the EU, then you might be right, but,

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100615/4-countries-produce-most-food.asp

Quote
The U.S. has long been a superpower in food markets, and it is still one of the world's largest food exporters. While China and India are also large food producers, they tend to consume much more of their own food products.3



Quote
The U.S. has one of the most efficient food production systems. Despite having a significantly smaller workforce than China, total U.S. agricultural production is almost as high as China's.

So please keep the ideology down.  It is not the job of the US to feed the world, especially countries which choose to punch out more people than they can feed.

You are one of the first to complain about the US emissions but you totally refuse to accept the sheer Size of the US and the need for personal transport.

When the time comes and Tesla has grown on the back of the people who buy their "shiny toys", Tesla will address the remaining transport needs such as mass public transport in urban areas.

Of course we could force Tesla to do what you want, they could fail and we would be stuck with the same old slow transition we had before Tesla.

It would fit your political ideology and totally fail the planet.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6123 on: September 25, 2020, 08:17:02 PM »
Rob Mauer’s Battery Day math
Quote
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) 9/23/20, 3:38 AM

The world changed today. Here's my recap.

Battery Day: Tesla’s Path to Becoming the Most Valuable Company in the World (TSLA)
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hSlLskpttA

——
Quote
The Tesla shareholder proposal on [doing] advertising was not approved.

1,108,793 for, 109,870,646 against

~ isn't that kind of amazing? what other company has shareholders against advertising 100 to 1?
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1309243065933029376


——-
Tesla Giga Berlin Seeking 8,000 Employees as Plant Construction Speed Escalates
Quote
The construction of Giga Berlin is proceeding at a fast pace and it is time to take a closer look at hiring. A recruiting agency is working with Tesla to find 8,000 employees for the factory.

A project team from the Frankfurt Oder Employment Agency will train about 500 employment agencies in Berlin and Brandenburg over the next few weeks. In the future, they will have to find representatives from different professional groups for Tesla--from warehouse employees to print technology engineers and managers. According to the employment agency, the group wants to focus on wages in the metallurgical and electrical industries. The starting salary should be more than 2,700 euros per month gross, according to RBB24.

For simple jobs, they will look for unemployed or lateral entrants. People without professional qualifications will also be eligible to participate in the selection. The agency wants to recruit employees primarily from Brandenburg and Berlin.

The agency and Tesla began working together in May. Within two weeks, the recruiting agency, together with the group, opened an office to facilitate the search for employees. Since Tesla offers above average salaries in the region, all employees will belong to the higher-paid half of the working population in Brandenburg.

According to Evan Horetsky, who is responsible for the construction of Giga Berlin, the factory is currently about 20% complete. Although initially slated to start production in mid-2021, given the speed of construction, Tesla should be ahead of schedule and start production in early 2021. According to this plan, the company will need a number of employees much earlier than planned.

Ultimately, Giga Berlin could employ up to 40,000 workers. "Provided the final extension becomes a reality this will mean up to 40,000 workers in 3 shifts, coming and going by car, by train and by bike, 23 trains/day," said Minister for Economic Affairs, Labor and Energy Jörg Steinbach to Tesmanian.
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-giga-berlin-seeking-8-000-employees-as-plant-construction-speed-escalades
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6124 on: September 27, 2020, 07:43:07 PM »
Looking at the numbers, 3TWh is 55 million sr+ Model 3's or 40 million LR or 30 million Model S.

Given Tesla is aiming for 10m vehicles by 2030, that is some Serious grid scale power backup or they intend to sell one hell of a lot of powerwalls.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6125 on: September 27, 2020, 09:59:59 PM »
It is not enough tho. This is where Musk's vision of ultra-efficient home HVAC and boring tunnels might make a huge dent in demand and hurry things up.

Also, we need a starlink  like deployment  of solar radiation managing sattellites to cool down the Earth. We ran out of time.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6126 on: September 27, 2020, 10:57:02 PM »
No, it is not enough.  But it is good to see that someone is on mission, even if they can't do it alone.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6127 on: September 28, 2020, 06:54:26 AM »
Tesla are signaling a hurry up to every one else.
This is were we are going catch us if you can.
If you don't we will take your market.
When some one like monroe says tesla is years ahead you would be stupid to ignore it.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6128 on: September 28, 2020, 12:47:20 PM »
My thoughts are that all the incumbents believed that Tesla would fail.  Therefore serious work to come to an EV world would be in their hands.  Therefore they didn't react very quickly.

Had it not been for Dieselgate and VW being virtually forced into the clean vehicle world, I don't believe that anyone would have any viable response to Tesla for another 2-3 years.

I doubt that Tesla's initial masterplan envisioned an incumbent vehicle manufacturing market that totally missed the threat, failed to plan to keep up and overtake, Tesla.

Whilst Tesla is being valued as a tech company, has extensions into Energy and tech, as well as cars, the reality is that Tesla could wind up with half the worlds car market by 2030.  The longer a lead they get, the more factories they will build.  The more they build, the more market they will sweep up.

Right now Tesla doesn't even compete in the small EV market.  But you have to consider this and it is Very important to consider, FCA were punting their 500e or e500 (I forget which way round they keep switching it), as their mass market EV that would take the EU by storm.

The price?  Base?   €30,000.

If Tesla comes forward with a $25,000 small vehicle, which is more competitive and has a longer range than models like the 500, then the existing Automotive industry is going to be hoovered up in toto.

Tesla may have fallen away with Models S and X, a bit, but they are competing with supercars.  When the new roadster comes out (long gestation), Tesla will be competing on the same playing field.  I expect the Roadster to completely kill the supercar competition.

Tesla is in a position it never expected to be in.  Are they slowing down?  Listen to Musk, NO, they are accelerating and will continue to do so.

If anyone was actually listening to what they were talking about, when discussing how efficient a moving production line needs to be, Musk said that cars were super inefficient in the production line, like 2% or 3%.  He stated that he believed the work they were doing on production lines (which is what I believe roadrunner really stands for), would bring that up to 30% eventually.

Take that to it's logical conclusion and it means Shanghai will be able to produce about 5m vehicles per year.  Extrapolate that to Fremont and Austin and you have a whole new view of the world.

If this is correct, then catching Tesla may be virtually impossible.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6129 on: September 28, 2020, 05:03:41 PM »
Quote
Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) 9/27/20, 10:06 PM
Predictably, when @elonmusk announced at Battery Day last week that $TSLA would cut the price of  [the lowest priced Tesla] to $25,000, several financial analysts panicked, downgrading the stock and/or cutting their price targets. In our view, traditional financial analysts have missed the mark.
https://twitter.com/cathiedwood/status/1310400552468131842
~ Traditional auto analysts are analyzing a mature industry in which lower prices signal trouble: higher inventories and lower sales. Led by #Tesla, electric vehicles (EVs) are in their infancy, and BECAUSE of lower costs and prices, are moving into exponential growth trajectory.
~ According to Wright’s Law, for every cumulative doubling in the number of EVs produced, costs will drop by 28%, suggesting that EV prices will drop below those of gas powered vehicles on a like-for-like basis during the next two years.
~ Analysts following $TSLA should be expert in energy storage, robotics, artificial intelligence, and software-as-service. While they are expert at the internal combustion engine, traditional auto analysts are not equipped to analyze EVs, particularly $TSLA.
~ According to @skorusARK’s battery research, #EV sales will scale nearly 20-fold from roughly 1.8 million last year to 35 million, 40% of total global auto sales, during the next five to six years.
~ The auto industry has not enjoyed exponential growth in roughly 100 years. EVs have entered exponential growth territory that will last for the next five to ten years.

      Elon Musk:  @CathieDWood We aren’t cutting the price of Model 3 to $25k. I was referring to a future car that will be smaller than Model 3.
      < Think you’ve mentioned Giga Shanghai & Berlin design centers will both design original cars, does that refer to the same smaller car?
      Elon Musk:  Both will do original cars
—-
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog:  elon, are you guys making 4680 cells with three different cathodes?
or when you talked about a diversified approach were you talking about your external suppliers ?

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 9/26/20, 7:48 PM
Suppliers. We’re only doing high energy nickel ourselves, at least for now. Also, maybe the presentation wasn’t clear that we’ve actually had our cells in packs driving cars for several months. Prototypes are trivial, volume production is hard.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1310003337752801280

—- stevenmarkryan  Sept 27
Sandy Munro THRILLED by Tesla Engineering - YouTube
➡️https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCagiBBx1prefrlsDzDxuA9A

—-
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 9/26/20, 4:46 AM
Another subtle detail that got overlooked on Battery Day.
@elonmusk formally confirms that Gigafactory Shanghai will soon start shipping to "many other countries in the region"
This is a huge deal. 
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1309776280406036480


—-  Not Standing Still
Tesla Giga Texas Expands 18%+ Land Holdings by Purchasing Additional 381 Acres
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-giga-texas-expands-18-land-holding-by-purchased-additional-381-acres

Tesla is looking to acquire a 10% stake in LG Chem to strengthen its battery supply: report
September 28, 2020
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-acquires-10-percent-lg-chem-batteries-report/

—- Remembering the nutty TSLAQ conspiracy theory ;D ::) 
“Strange that Elon had to start a coup in Bolivia to get lithium from Nevada.”
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1310211947074387968


======
Lex Fridman:  Long-term plot twist: Tesla is an energy company and SpaceX is a transportation company.
https://twitter.com/lexfridman/status/1308756765908103168
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6130 on: September 30, 2020, 08:13:05 PM »
Tesla China: Battery effects

Tesla Model 3 with zero-cobalt LFP batteries are poised for release in China
September 30, 2020
Quote
Reports from sources in China have indicated that Tesla is poised to start producing and selling Model 3 sedans from Gigafactory Shanghai that are equipped with cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. The update was related to Reuters by two people who are reportedly familiar with the matter.

According to the media firm’s anonymous sources, Tesla will be announcing the battery update as early as this coming Thursday. Tesla, for its part, has not released a comment about the matter, at least for now.

LFP batteries would likely provide Tesla with a variety of advantages, the most notable of which is lower production costs. Currently, the Model 3s being produced at Gigafactory Shanghai are being equipped with nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) batteries, which perform very well but are quite expensive. With their NMC batteries, the China-made Model 3 starts at about 271,550 yuan ($39,900) with government subsidies included.

These costs may be lowered by the company’s apparent shift towards LFP batteries. LFP batteries are cheaper to produce than NMC batteries, which should give Tesla notable savings in the manufacturing of the Made-in-China Model 3. Considering Tesla’s strategy of passing over its cost savings to consumers, it would not be surprising if the company ends up adjusting the price of the Giga Shanghai-made Model 3 after the LFP shift. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-zero-cobalt-batteries-release-date/

Price change pending!
Quote
Ray4️⃣Tesla (@ray4tesla) 9/30/20, 9:44 AM
PRICE CHANGE: the two available MIC Model 3 variants are said to get prices adjusted as follows:

SR+: reduced to ¥249k from 271,550
RWD LR: reduced to ¥309k from 344,050

In addition, they will come with chrome delete trims. Official announcement is to be made on Thursday.
https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1311300973822799874
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6131 on: October 01, 2020, 09:23:30 PM »
Tesla stores in China report overwhelming new Model 3 orders after price reduction
October 1, 2020
Quote
Chinese social media responded strongly to Tesla China’s price adjustments for the Model 3, especially the Standard Range Plus variant, which now uses LFP batteries. A social media post from a Tesla representative, for one, remarked that the company’s stores have become so flooded with new Model 3 orders that employees hardly have time to eat meals or converse with customers. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-china-overwhelmed-model-3-price-cut/
For customers who recently bought a Model 3 at the higher price, Tesla has offered a goodwill gesture in the form of three years’ worth of free Supercharging.

—-
Tesla Semi Gets Another Large Pre-Order From Walmart
Quote
Reportedly, Walmart Canada just tripled the number of Tesla Semis it has on pre-order. The company has been touting its plans to greatly reduce its carbon footprint into the future. Walmart Canada is one of the largest Tesla Semi order-holders, with some 130 reserved thus far.
 …
 The company also noted that being able to travel 500 miles on a single charge lines up well with Walmart Canada's fleet system, which focuses primarily on single-day round-trip deliveries.
https://insideevs.com/news/446389/walmart-orders-130-tesla-semi-trucks/amp/

—-
Sept 10
Tesla Giga Texas Aims for Trial Cybertruck Production by May 1 2021, Target Date for "Substantial Completion"
Quote
Hundreds of thousands eagerly await the start of production of Cybertruck--Tesla's electric pickup truck, which has won over so many hearts. Tesla wastes no time and is determined to start production as early as possible. According to documents, the First Substantial Completion of Giga Texas will be done by May 1, 2021.

hridge2020, Tesla Motors Club user, posted documents that Tesla included in the “Travis County Colorado River Project Partner Pre-Qualification Presentation” posted to the City of Austin website. There, the company posted a construction schedule, according to which it can be concluded that Tesla is seeking 'lightning speed' for construction and the start of production of the long-awaited steel beast.

Project Schedule:
   •   Start Rough Grading - July 17, 2020
   •   First Dry In - Dec 30, 2020
   •   First Substantial Completion - May 1, 2021 …
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/substantial-completion-of-cybertruck-factory-by-may-1

Sept 29
Tesla Giga Texas Defines ‘The Speed of Elon,’ As Factory Could Be Up & Running by May 1, 2021
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/giga-texas-1

—-
Tesla’s $25K car will force EV rivals to make painful sacrifices: industry experts
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-25k-compact-car-forces-sacrifices-legacy-auto/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6132 on: October 02, 2020, 11:13:15 AM »
Tesla Giga Shanghai Will Increase to 3 Shifts After Chinese National Holiday

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-giga-shanghai-will-increase-to-3-shifts-after-chinese-national-holiday

Today production on 2 shifts is estimated at 200,000 per year production capacity.  Theoretically 3 shifts will move that to 300,000 per year, or 75,000 per quarter.

Another point in the article.

Quote
Tesla China plans to ship Model 3 produced by Giga Shanghai to other markets in Asia and Europe. China's Tesla Model 3, destined for overseas shipments, could begin mass production in Q4 2020. Tesmanian's source also said that Japan and Korea are the first markets to be exported to.

Nobody has, yet, mentioned that Japan drives on the LEFT.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6133 on: October 02, 2020, 02:38:20 PM »
139,300 vehicles delivered.  145,000 produced.

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries

Not bad.  Troy Teslike just about hit it on the head.  Not withstanding that Giga Shanghai shut down days before year end ready for reconfiguring the lines during the Chinese holiday.

This should be an interesting read on the financial statement.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6134 on: October 02, 2020, 05:00:58 PM »

Quote
Hundreds of thousands eagerly await the start of production of Cybertruck--Tesla's electric pickup truck, which has won over so many hearts. Tesla wastes no time and is determined to start production as early as possible. According to documents, the First Substantial Completion of Giga Texas will be done by May 1, 2021.

hridge2020, Tesla Motors Club user, posted documents that Tesla included in the “Travis County Colorado River Project Partner Pre-Qualification Presentation” posted to the City of Austin website. There, the company posted a construction schedule, according to which it can be concluded that Tesla is seeking 'lightning speed' for construction and the start of production of the long-awaited steel beast.

Project Schedule:
   •   Start Rough Grading - July 17, 2020
   •   First Dry In - Dec 30, 2020
   •   First Substantial Completion - May 1, 2021 …
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/substantial-completion-of-cybertruck-factory-by-may-1
[/quote]
It is October 2. Have they started "rough grading (on July 17)" ?

I think not.  May 21 --- I don't think so.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6135 on: October 02, 2020, 05:08:28 PM »
It is October 2. Have they started "rough grading (on July 17)" ?
I think not.  May 21 --- I don't think so.

They have graded the main production building site, are putting in rammed pilings and have started the first concrete founds for support pillars.

They are moving faster than Berlin.  Probably because they are working longer hours and more days.

If you look at the site, grading activities have moved from the main site to a secondary site and they are filling in depressions around the main building area and bringing it up to the same level.

The site works are nothing short of dramatic.  They are already excavating the deep piling areas, I would assume are for the presses.

It looks like they are putting up (have put up), a pretty major concrete factory too.

Worth reviewing the Day 70 video.  I tend to go back about once a week.  Do a bit of digging about and then leave it.  Progress, considering the difference needed between Berlin and Texas, is amazing.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6136 on: October 02, 2020, 05:47:50 PM »
Point to note on the Tesla deliveries.

GM dropped 10% in Q3, so did FCA.  Nissan dropped 32%.

Tesla is around 45% growth YoY.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6137 on: October 02, 2020, 08:22:50 PM »
It is October 2. Have they started "rough grading (on July 17)" ?
I think not.  May 21 --- I don't think so.

They have graded the main production building site, are putting in rammed pilings and have started the first concrete founds for support pillars.

They are moving faster than Berlin.  Probably because they are working longer hours and more days.

If you look at the site, grading activities have moved from the main site to a secondary site and they are filling in depressions around the main building area and bringing it up to the same level.

The site works are nothing short of dramatic.  They are already excavating the deep piling areas, I would assume are for the presses.

It looks like they are putting up (have put up), a pretty major concrete factory too.

Worth reviewing the Day 70 video.  I tend to go back about once a week.  Do a bit of digging about and then leave it.  Progress, considering the difference needed between Berlin and Texas, is amazing.
Looks like I've been asleep for a couple of months. Now we know.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6138 on: October 02, 2020, 09:56:07 PM »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6139 on: October 03, 2020, 12:55:24 AM »
—- YTD YoY Vehicle Delivery Growth
Quote
Sam Korus (@skorusARK) 10/2/20, 12:48 PM
One of these things is not like the other
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1312072039885406208
⬇️ Graph below:


 —-  Global #BEV Sales
Quote
ceo plus, Roger Rusch (@ceo_plus_ch) 10/2/20, 5:22 AM
Global #BEV Sales Jan-Aug 2020, top 15 BEV models:

Of the top 15 models, #Tesla’s share is:
- 40.1%
- nearly 5 times the share of the runner-up (Renault)
- nearly as large as the 7 runners-up

 
https://twitter.com/ceo_plus_ch/status/1311959778860699649
⬇️ Graph below:  Global BEV Sales

ceo plus, Roger Rusch:  Here’s the data source. The blue ones are the top 15 #BEV (fully electric) models. The black ones are PHEVs, i.e. not electric cars, but gas guzzlers.
Credit to ev-sales.blogspot.com!
https://twitter.com/ceo_plus_ch/status/1311963595450863618
[At the link:  Image of the data]



—— Tesla India!
Quote
Tesla Club India™: Hey Elon , just thought we'd put this out here. We wait and hang on to hope wrt "hopefully soon" for India Tesla entry. Would love to hear of any progress in this regard.
[Images at the link: t-shirts: India ❤️ Tesla ]
Elon Musk:  Next year for sure
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1311931936261263360
< Omg!! Elon this is a celebrating news.. We were waiting for ages.
Elon Musk:  Thanks for waiting!

—- Opinion: Another $TSLA stock offering?
Quote
Jessica Meckmann:  I am pretty sure that $tsla will do a secondary offer to provide more liquidity for ETFs once S&P inclusion is announced. I hope they're going to use some of that $ to build a factory in India. There's so much potential in this country. I already made a logo for you,
Jessica Meckmann: I don’t think there’s a way around this. There’s simply not enough liquidity in the market. They could finance multiple future giga factories that way.
https://twitter.com/meckimac/status/1291367811848298497

—-
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 10/2/20, 1:26 PM
Tesla Q3 delivery numbers from 2012 to 2020:

Q3 2020: 139,300
Q3 2019: 97,000
Q3 2018: 83,500
Q3 2017: 26,150
Q3 2016: 24,500
Q3 2015: 11,580
Q3 2014: 7,785
Q3 2013: 5,500
Q3 2012: 321
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1312081597844209665

—-
Quote
Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) 10/2/20, 10:35 AM
Tesla delivering so many cats!!! $tsla
https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1312038626805522433
[The comments are pretty much what you’d expect. ;D ]
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6140 on: October 03, 2020, 01:37:17 PM »
Thought for the day.

If VW hit their 2021 EV target, they will sell about the same number of EV vehicles as Tesla will have sold in H2 2020. Assuming Tesla hits the 500k mark.

In 2021, Fremont and Tesla will be full out in H1 and Berlin and Texas will be ramping up to initial full capacity in H2.  Meaning Tesla will outsell VW around 3:1.  That is If VW hit their target.

Second thought for the day.  VW appear to be slower to convert and ramp up existing factories than Tesla can build them from a mud field.

Third thought for the day.

Wolfsburg is the largest and highest producing vehicle complex in the world. Today.  By 2022, shanghai will have a higher output, Fremont, with expanded GA lines, even if they are sprung structures, will have a higher output rate and Berlin and Texas will be in phase 2 expanding to a greater output than Wolfsburg. Tesla will also be commissioning a new factory in asia and, quite probably, another factory elsewhere.

At some point Tesla will have to enter the South American Market too.

Whilst this makes excellent reading for the EV world, it must make incredibly depressing reading for incumbent auto makers.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6141 on: October 03, 2020, 06:53:22 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6142 on: October 03, 2020, 08:02:22 PM »
The last slide tells us the plaid model S is already testing with the new battery.
As it would cost more to have a separate platform for a very low volume car it also suggests both X and S will get the new format first.
I would hazard a new platform for both along with an update to make use of the new casting technology will be announced in the next year .
 
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6143 on: October 03, 2020, 08:39:43 PM »
Recent Rob Maurer Tesla Daily videos

Elon Musk Talks TSLA Stock, Battery Day Reactions, EV Market + Tesla Interest in LG Investment? - YouTube
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5EhaGeoR8k
Published on Sep 28, 2020
➤ Elon Musk discusses Tesla’s stock price, media coverage and Wall St. reactions to Battery Day, and more in a new interview with Kara Swisher.
➤ Musk congratulatory on Tesla quarterly deliveries, but notes logistical challenges
➤ Discussion on overall EV market and Tesla’s growth
➤ Korea Times reports on Tesla interest in taking stake in LG Chem spinoff
➤ Tesla and Piedmont Lithium agree on lithium supply contract

—-
Walmart Triples Down on Tesla Semi, Ford Cuts Prices on Mustang Mach-E - YouTube
➡️https://youtu.be/vOU248p4lE8
Published on Sep 29, 2020
➤ Walmart Canada more than triples orders for Tesla Semi
➤ Ford cuts prices on all-electric Mustang Mach-E ahead of launch
➤ Toyota discusses electric vehicle targets
➤ BMW makes plans for M performance electric vehicle
➤ Tesla updates investor relations webpage
➤ Elon Musk mentions Starlink IPO timeline

—-
Tesla Reports Record Quarterly Deliveries in Q3 2020, Has Path to 500k+ - YouTube
➡️https://youtu.be/tKfDrS4vE9E
Published on Oct 2, 2020
➤ Tesla reports quarterly deliveries +53% sequentially, +43% to last year, and +24% to the previous quarterly record
➤ With new record production of 145,000 vehicles, Tesla may have a path to achieving their original 2020 guidance of 500,000+ vehicle deliveries for the year
➤ Full analysis on the Q3 delivery and production report and what’s next for Tesla

—-
“There are now over a million Tesla vehicles capable of running the latest version of Autopilot on the road today, all around the world.
How do you catch up to that?”
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1312166853347737600


—-
Germany
Tesla saves battery assembly company from bankruptcy in new acquisition: report
October 2, 2020
Quote
Last month, ATW (Assembly & Test Europe GmbH), a company based in the German town of Neuwied that makes modern battery assembly lines, was rocked by news that it was facing closure due to the effects of the pandemic. The announcement was related by Udo Panenka, a managing director from ATW’s parent company, the Canadian ATS group. The news hit ATW like a bomb, as the company had been operating as a profitable supplier for clients such as BMW and Daimler.

The identity of the cryptic company that would save ATW from closure was revealed recently, as per information from local news outlet The European. The publication noted that the battery assembly maker is being taken over by none other than American electric car maker Tesla, which is currently looking to ramp its efforts to produce its own battery cells for its vehicles and energy products.

Tesla’s acquisition of ATW could be considered as a huge win for both companies. Prior to its unfortunate run-in with the pandemic that caused a steep decline in orders, ATW had been a highly profitable business that produced transmission assembly lines for Magna and state-of-the-art battery assemblies for BMW and Daimler. Tesla, for its part, needs premier talent such as well-trained battery engineers and skilled workers as it expands its presence in the region with Gigafactory Berlin.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-acquires-atw-battery-production-line-maker/
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6144 on: October 03, 2020, 10:00:43 PM »
re Tesla & ATW:  it is nice to hear of this win-win deal. (I hope it is a good as it is reported.) There is so much 'grind them into the dirt or steal them blind' mentality out there.  As Tesla wants the workforce, this won't be a 'strip the assets and fire the poor slobs' transaction.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6145 on: October 05, 2020, 04:12:25 AM »
re Tesla & ATW:  it is nice to hear of this win-win deal. (I hope it is a good as it is reported.) There is so much 'grind them into the dirt or steal them blind' mentality out there.  As Tesla wants the workforce, this won't be a 'strip the assets and fire the poor slobs' transaction.

One benefit of Tesla not having any real competition is:  they don’t need to buy anyone out for the purpose of making them disappear. :)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6146 on: October 05, 2020, 04:15:50 AM »
Tesla’s cabin camera is detecting facial features to increase vehicle safety
Quote
The interesting developments from the newly revealed coding show that the cabin camera will now be used by Tesla to increase safety and driver awareness. One of the most obvious indications of this is the PHONE_USE code, which will likely recognize and indicate when the driver’s eyes have left the road and have focused on a Smartphone instead.

Interestingly, just a few days ago, Tesla received a sixth-place ranking on the Assisted Driving Grading survey from the Euro NCAP tests. The lower ratings were due to poor scores in the “Driver Engagement” metric, where the Model 3 scored only a 35 out of 100.
The lack of a driver monitoring system on the Euro NCAP tests significantly affected the Model 3’s scoring on the test. It seems that Tesla is already preparing for the cabin camera to capture this data to increase vehicle safety.

However, recognizing any movement or facial feature that could be a distraction to driving could be used with Tesla’s in-house insurance suite to determine a driver’s rates. For example, if the cabin camera detects PHONE_USE more often than the average driver, rates could be increased because the driver is not giving their undivided attention to the road. …
  https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cabin-camera-facial-features-safety/

—-  U.S.  ZEV credits
Where Elon Musk and Tesla earn real credit ‘eating the lunch’ of auto competitors
Quote
… “We view the regulatory tax credits as sort of a reward for producing EVs that people want to buy. Aside from Tesla’s Models 3, X and S, only one other non-hybrid, battery EV model sold over 10,000 units in the U.S. in 2019 (the Chevy Bolt). The vast majority of other EV models haven’t sold very well at all,” Nelson said.
...
 Nelson said his view is that Tesla is buying time to lower their battery costs so they can widen their competitive gap in terms of range of EVs and cost and build a better moat versus other manufacturers.

“Definitely, in the short run, I think car companies are having a hard time justifying dumping a billion dollars into new models and the credit market is serving as way for car companies to comply and avoid large fixed investments they need to make now to bring a new car onto the market. ... If car companies don’t want to introduce new models, they can just buy credits indefinitely.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/03/where-elon-musk-tesla-earn-real-credit-eating-lunch-of-competitors.html


—-  Two Steven Mark Ryan videos
How Far Ahead Is Tesla REALLY? (w/Sandy Munro)
➡️https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T-fLC-iDC7A

How far ahead is Tesla?  Sandy Munro says:
Battery cell technology:  5 years ahead
Circuit boards:  10 years
Motor technology:  3-5 years
Integrated system:  5 years ahead of everybody else

—-
Tesla: The Art Of War (w/Sandy Munro)
➡️https://youtu.be/N33Irlztvv8
Sandy:  “Musk lies.  He understates.”  “You want them terrified. That’s what he does.”
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6147 on: October 05, 2020, 10:35:05 AM »

Tesla: The Art Of War (w/Sandy Munro)
➡️https://youtu.be/N33Irlztvv8
Sandy:  “Musk lies.  He understates.”  “You want them terrified. That’s what he does.”

The problem is they are not terrified.  They aren't going to be terrified until it is far, far, too late to engineer their way out of it.  It is likely to be a lot of consolidation to make companies so large that governments need to help them not fail.  This has already happened with PSA and FCA where they have merged, are leaning on buying credits with a slow, not very good, effort to produce two lines of EV's.

Apart from VW, I see more urgency with KIA than other manufacturers who sell outside China.  Even Toyota is still hanging on their strategy made before pervasive BEV sales happened.  I can't see things changing fast enough.  Even the Leaf still sells lilke a compliance car.  The Leaf has been on sale since 2010 yet the Model 3 outsold total world sales of the Leaf in March 2020.  By August the Model 3 has gained another years sales on the Leaf.

As for VW, the only reason they are engaged as heavily is because it was an easy way out of more government fines and court cases.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6148 on: October 05, 2020, 06:00:56 PM »
Quote
Tesla's factory near Berlin faces no major hurdles before getting the final green light to start producing electric cars next year, according to the premier of Brandenburg in Germany, where the plant being built.

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/tesla-faces-clear-path-german-plant-state-premier-says

Seems like, over 400 complaints or not, nothing really valid has been submitted that will block the factory from completing.

I can see, from the press articles, that the "environmentalists" are getting very frustrated.  After all it has always worked before.  Don't like what is happening, don't like a factory in your nice clean forest (whether it is a cash crop or not), just complain and it all stops.

There have been attempts to remove the panel running the hearing, all to no avail.

It is rather interesting to see the environmentalists trying to justify the stopping of a factory which will benefit the environment, because they want to benefit the environment...
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6149 on: October 06, 2020, 06:34:06 PM »
—-  Tesla in China
Quote
Ray4️⃣Tesla (@ray4tesla) 10/4/20, 11:13 AM
The MIC Model 3 price cuts announced on Oct. 1 definitely have a huge impact on demand. People are seen lining up to place orders at the current auto shows in China. Here is what the line looks like. Just as crazy as it can be.
https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1312772738411425793
[Brief cell phone vid.]
~ Somebody in the background said that was the payment line.

Tesla Greater China (@teslacn) 10/5/20, 7:06 AM
Your love is what keeps us going ♥️
https://twitter.com/teslacn/status/1313072956944261121
[2-min edited, Chinese- and English-captioned video from the car show]


—- India
Tesla in talks with Karnataka government for Gigafactory, R&D centre in Bengaluru
Quote
Karnataka has offered Bengaluru as the destination for Tesla’s Indian Gigafactory, and the company has already held preliminary discussions for a research and innovation unit in the city.

“We have offered Tesla all support to set up a research and development (R&D) centre and the manufacturing unit. Bengaluru has a favourable ecosystem for electric vehicles (EVs) and Tesla can leverage on that,” Gaurav Gupta, principal secretary of Karnataka’s commerce and industries department, told The Economic Times.

The potential Gigafactory will manufacture Tesla’s electric vehicles and batteries, but talks are preliminary and is likely to be “long drawn,” Gupta added. …
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/technology/auto/tesla-in-talks-with-karnataka-government-for-gigafactory-rd-centre-in-bengaluru-5923261.html

—- Canadian Nickel
Tesla in talks with another potential nickel supplier from Canada
October 5, 2020
Quote
Back in July, Elon Musk urged nickel miners to ramp their operations, stating that companies will find a welcome, substantial business with Tesla. Musk even remarked that nickel miners could expect a “giant contract” provided that their nickel is mined and produced in an environmentally-sensitive way.

Needless to say, a number of companies appear to have answered Tesla’s call. From Canada alone, Giga Metals and Canada Nickel Co. have both expressed their intentions to supply nickel to the electric car maker. Even more recently, Brazilian miner Vale SA also remarked that it is discussing a potential partnership with the electric car maker. The update was related by the head of Vale’s base metals unit on Friday.


Vale SA’s operations seem to be a pretty good fit for Tesla and Elon Musk’s requirements. The mining firm adopts a fairly strong environmental stance, dedicating about $2 billion to the development of low-carbon projects, including some that push the use of electrified underground vehicles. Travers noted that Vale is also studying potential to store carbon in tailings at its Thompson, Manitoba operations. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-new-nickel-supplier-canada/

—- Tesla Market Cap is Bigger Than Big Oil
Quote
Sam (@SamTalksTesla) 10/5/20, 4:04 PM
By market cap Exxon + Chevron + Shell + BP = $TSLA
It’s time we stopped even talking about ‘big oil’, they’re our murky little past. 
Let’s just talk about REALLY BIG #TESLA!
https://twitter.com/samtalkstesla/status/1313208528425820161

Elon Musk:  Pretty wild, considering that Exxon was the most valuable company in the word when we went public 10 years ago
Viv:  One of the most important turning points in energy history. This isn’t just about market cap, it’s pretty much the embodiment of a brighter future [⬇️Graph below.]
Sam:  And that was only a few months back, since then Tesla has doubled and engulfed the entire industry in market cap.

—- Question for the day:
Is Tesla attempting to build the three largest automotive factories in the world, simultaneously?

H/t @28delayslater
⬇️Some automotive factory size data below. Click to embiggen.
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