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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6200 on: October 21, 2020, 10:12:26 PM »
 ;D  Steven Mark Ryan compares analysts who are focusing extremely short-term, asking for one number from the Q3 results that shows if Tesla is a good investment or not, to ARK Invest’s long term outlook.  (TD Ameritrade interview.)  Included: Robotaxi service discussion.

Ark Invest Talks Tesla Stock - YouTube
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 10:20:23 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6201 on: October 21, 2020, 10:18:51 PM »
Q3 2020 Results are out!  http://ir.tesla.com/

Page 5:
Quote
SUMMARY
Revenue
Total revenue grew 39% YoY in Q3. This was achieved mainly through substantial growth in vehicle deliveries as well as growth in other parts of the business. At the same time, vehicle average selling price (ASP) declined slightly compared to the same period last year as our product mix continues to shift from Model S and Model X to the more affordable Model 3 and Model Y.

Profitability
Our operating income improved in Q3 to a record level of $809M, resulting in a 9.2% operating margin. This profit level was reached while we took increased SBC expense in Q3 attributable to the 2018 CEO award, of which $290M was triggered by a significant increase in share price and market capitalization and a new operational milestone becoming probable. Positive profit impacts included strong volume, better fixed cost absorption and continuous cost reduction.

Cash
Quarter-end cash and cash equivalents increased by $5.9B QoQ to $14.5B, driven mainly by our recent capital raise of $5.0B (average price of this offering was ~$449/share) combined with free cash flow of $1.4B and partially offset by reduced use of working capital credit lines. Since our days payable outstanding (DPO) are higher than days sales outstanding (DSO), revenue growth results in additional cash generation from working capital. DPO and DSO both declined sequentially in Q3 2020.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6202 on: October 21, 2020, 10:43:43 PM »
Quote
OUTLOOK

Volume
We have the capacity installed to produce and deliver 500,000 vehicles this year. While achieving this goal has become more difficult, delivering half a million vehicles in 2020 remains our target. Achieving this target depends primarily on quarter over quarter increases in Model Y and Shanghai production, as well as further improvements in logistics and delivery efficiency at higher volume levels.

Cash Flow
We should have sufficient liquidity to fund our product roadmap, long-term capacity expansion plans and other expenses.

Profit
For the trailing 12 months, we achieved an operating margin of 6.3%. We expect our operating margin will continue to grow over time, ultimately reaching industry-leading levels with capacity expansion and localization plans underway.

Product
We are currently building Model Y capacity at Gigafactory Shanghai, Gigafactory Berlin and Gigafactory Texas, and remain on track to start deliveries from each location in 2021. Tesla Semi deliveries will also begin in 2021. We continue to significantly invest in our product roadmap.

No date for cybertruck. :'(

⬇️⬇️⬇️ Images below:  Shanghai Model Y die cast machine; Giga Berlin;  Giga Texas.
Click to embiggen.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6203 on: October 22, 2020, 12:41:40 AM »
Current capacity listed at 840k vehicles.
319k produced first 3 quarters of year and aiming for 500k so 180k 4th Q target.

Profitable in year to Jun 2020 with 387k vehicles delivered. Could reach 720k (maybe more without xmas getting in the way) without any extra site expansion. Three major sites in construction and 4 in development.

Lots of scope for improved profitability.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6204 on: October 22, 2020, 04:08:18 AM »
TFW a clueless analyst asks stupid questions on the earnings call just to try to generate a clickbait headline.
(Sadly, Adam wins this award most quarters.)  Props to Elon for not taking the bait.
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/21/20, 8:32 PM
Congratulations to Adam Jonas on winning the dumb question of the quarter award!

Please meet us at Wendy's to collect your trophy 
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1319074186468311040
At the link:  Conference call audio clip, annotated with photos.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6205 on: October 22, 2020, 04:14:36 AM »
Analyst expectations.

Quote
Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu) 10/21/20, 6:21 PM
Elon just concluded ‘not far off’ when I asked him 850K to 1m units delivered next year. ...
consensus is at 724k. $TSLA $TSLAQ 
https://twitter.com/p_ferragu/status/1319041093233758208
 
« Last Edit: October 22, 2020, 04:22:15 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6206 on: October 22, 2020, 05:03:23 AM »
More notes from the conference call:

Waymo FSD uses high-definition maps, in a small, geo-fenced area.
Tesla FSD does not need HD maps, or any cell phone connectivity.  “Even if there is no connectivity and no Tesla has ever been there before,” the car can still drive safely.
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/21/20, 8:05 PM
You could build a brand new road, and Autopilot would instantly know how to drive on it.
That’s so powerful.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1319067283256340481

Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/21/20, 7:57 PM

“Yeah we’re actually putting the exact same Autopilot from the cars into our semi trucks”
“could be a pretty big deal”
Yeah could be pretty #%&@ huge.
Long distance highway driving is low hanging fruit for autonomy.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1319065391503532032

—-
Musk:  today’s “skateboard” platform will become obsolete.  The same way airplane (and rocket) fuel tanks became the actual structure of the craft, front and rear castings for a vehicle with batteries as a structural component is much simpler/cheaper/more efficient.

Tesla has external sources for enough batteries to fill their needs for 2021. By 2022, internal sources should be ramping sufficiently to keep up.  The  “pilot plant” in Fremont should be one of the top 10 battery factories in the world, once it is scaled up.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6207 on: October 22, 2020, 01:29:15 PM »
The more they sell, the more net GAAP goes up.

The more they raise funds, the more cash on hand goes up.  These funds block attempts by TeslaQ to claim Tesla is going to die.

Granted there will be more in the detail and we'll find out that more of the profit was from selling EV credits and allowing more FSD revenue.

Nothing really changes here.  Tesla continues to grow and continues to grow stronger.  The step change will be 2021.

If, as has been suggested, Tesla demand will run out, then it will happen when Tesla doubles deliveries again from 500k to over 1m.

Of course if you want to be totally excited by FSD beta, you could watch a twitter video on it.

https://twitter.com/teslaownersSV/status/1319137024171937792
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6208 on: October 22, 2020, 02:11:09 PM »
During the call Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research asked if Tesla would hit 850k to 1m in 2021.  Musk said "near enough".  The press took this to mean that the Tesla target was somewhere inbetween.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-q3-2020-earnings-call-850k-1m-deliveries-in-2021-not-far-off-per-elon-musk

Looking at the numbers.

Q1/2/3 produced 318,350 vehicles delivered.  This averages out at 12 week quarters (Tesla takes a week off every quarter to stand down and tune), at 8,843 vehicles per week.  Better than 2019, but, still, hardly earth shaking.

But to acheive 500k per year, excepting the 4k vehicles which were produced in Q3 but not delivered, Tesla would need to produce and deliver 177,650 vehicles, or 14,804 vehicles per week.

Now that is Fremont and Shanghai phase 1.

That 14,804 gives us 710,600 for a 48 week year in 2021.

I'm ignoring the fact that Shanghai rapidly increased output in September or that the Fremont Model Y production is still ramping up.

if we add 300k for Shanghai phase 2 and 100k each for Berlin and Texas in 2021, we get 1.21m.

So, I guess, 1m is "close enough".
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6209 on: October 22, 2020, 05:31:45 PM »
For those who like Steven Mark Ryan’s take on things, here’s his review of the Q3 financial results (not the conference call). 

(I’ve already seen, as he mentions, other articles that insist “Tesla is not profitable” because the company’s regulatory credits amount is larger than their profit amount, while completely ignoring the record cash on hand, record operating income, record operating margin, etc., etc.)

Tesla Q3 Earnings Summary (holy ****!)



——- More early looks at the new FSD
Tesla owners share first glimpse of Full Self-Driving Beta in action, release notes, Autopilot settings
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-release-notes-video/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6210 on: October 22, 2020, 06:54:43 PM »
There is no doubt that 5 years from now, with Tesla selling 5m vehicles a year and having run a fairly constant small profit, there will still be plenty saying Tesla is only a scam and is going to fail.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6211 on: October 22, 2020, 08:47:35 PM »
Neil,
Tesla will fail, in that someday they will cease to exist.  But I'm a geologist who thinks long term.  :)  If I was an astronomer, I'd say they will cease to exist 'soon'.   ;D :o :P ::) :-\
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6212 on: October 22, 2020, 10:58:26 PM »
Yep, but the shorts think in months...   ;D ;D ;D

Tesla could easily last 100 years and that, quite literally, is a lifetime.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6213 on: October 22, 2020, 11:36:35 PM »
 :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6214 on: October 23, 2020, 08:20:11 PM »
Tesla is knocking on the door of the S&P 500
Quote
London(CNN Business) Tesla (TSLA) could have been added to the S&P 500 earlier this year. Instead, it was snubbed, shocking the bullish investors that have driven the company's shares up more than 400% this year.

But the electric carmaker's pitch for joining the exclusive index of top US companies appears to be strengthening.

What's happening: Tesla reported its best quarterly profit to date on Wednesday, and said it still hopes to hit its target of selling half a million cars this year. Its stock is up another 5% in premarket trading.

Telsa's profit of $874 million, excluding special items, is up nearly 156% from one year ago and nearly double what it earned in the second quarter. The number also blew through Wall Street's estimates.

The company, which is worth more than Toyota (TM), Disney (DIS) and Coca-Cola (KO), has now notched five consecutive quarters of growth. According to criteria set out by S&P Dow Jones Indices, it should be eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500. …
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/10/22/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

——  Video Section
Jim Cramer on Tesla earnings: The doubters were wrong, the believers were right
➡️https://youtu.be/KtgCdnz0p-4

And the Steven Mark Ryan (SMR) version:
Jim Cramer: Tesla Doubters Were Wrong
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhfyEyQytDM


If you miss the doom and gloom, here’s a recent SMR vid with clips of Bob Lutz on CNBC from 2017 - 2020.
Does Bob Lutz Still Think Tesla Is Doomed?
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5D28arWNMGY


—- China
Tesla starts exporting Model 3 from Gigafactory Shanghai
October 18, 2020
Quote
It appears that Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai has started exporting its locally-made Model 3 to Europe. In September 2020, the all-electric car maker began preparations in Giga Shanghai to produce Model 3 vehicles optimized for export in Asia and the European region. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-starts-model-3-exports-from-china/

—- Canada
Tesla Megapack-powered Windcharger in Alberta goes online
Quote
A massive “Windcharger” in Alberta, Canada, has officially started operation, according to TransAlta, the company that manages the project. The massive project, which will have energy stored in Tesla Megapacks, has a nameplate capacity of 10 MW and a total storage capacity of 20 MWh. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-megapack-alberta-windcharger-complete/amp/


—- Sorry!
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog:  Savage Level: Elon Musk
[⬇️ Text image below.]

Elon Musk (@elonmusk)10/21/20, 7:33 PM
Not intentional! We just wanted to show that you could theoretically convert the entire US vehicle fleet to electric using only the lithium in Nevada, a single state. Tesla will do lithium mining only as needed. We also found a way to extract lithium using NaCl (table salt).
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1319059307804045316

—- FSD
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog: Imagine you had a computer program that could take in pictures from a camera, and then instantly build a video game that looked exactly like the pictures.
Well, that’s what Tesla vision does. And then it tries to play the game it makes
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1319219484993802241

Alex:  If this is rolled out at the end of the year it will be obvious to many how far Tesla is ahead
No HD maps, no lidar but vector-based 4D vision makes the difference 

Whole Mars Catalog:  Waymo fake-launched their service because they knew how embarrassing it would look if Tesla launched before they did.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1319216627083214849
Screencap at the link:  Waymo:  You’re on the waitlist.  We’re adding riders gradually and will email you when you’re in.
(Waymo’s initial rollout seems not so different from Tesla’s, tbh.  Over the past few days, additional Tesla twitterfolks have announced that they, too, have received the FSD update.)
« Last Edit: October 23, 2020, 08:28:44 PM by Sigmetnow »
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6215 on: October 23, 2020, 09:42:38 PM »
So apparently China wants Tesla to recall 30,000 cars for faulty suspension. Tesla responds by calling chinese people bad drivers. This recall would apply to all teslas made from 2015-2018 (if other countries follow suit). Tesla did not disclose the recall in their recent equity raise, even though they know beforehand.

Que lots of westerners angry at chinese people for demanding safety standards and blocking "progress"

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6216 on: October 24, 2020, 09:09:07 PM »
The China Suspension recall is not that big a deal; problems occurred in about 30 cars in China, occurring after abuse such as hitting curbs or potholes.
Tesla said that the failure happened in less than 0.05% of vehicles outside of China and about 0.1% of vehicles in China.  Involves only Models S & X made from 2013 to 2017.

Tesla Recalls Model S/X in China, Plans to Export China Model 3 + More Product Updates?
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gXUDwP5jrY
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6217 on: October 24, 2020, 09:23:09 PM »
From August 2020:
Jim Cramer & Rob Maurer Discuss TSLA Stock, Elon Musk, Tesla's Battery Day, and Tesla's Advantages


It’s fun to watch Cramer’s reaction upon learning Cybertruck details. Good discussion about Tesla stock manipulation.

Watch: Jim Cramer & Rob Maurer Discuss TSLA Stock, Elon Musk, and Battery Day
In the video above, Jim Cramer joins Rob Maurer to discuss Tesla's valuation, Elon Musk, Wall St.'s expectations for Tesla's upcoming battery day, and Tesla's advantages versus its competition.
Timestamps:
   •   0:00 Introduction
   •   0:43 How has Cramer's thinking on Tesla evolved over time?
   •   4:18 Is TSLA stock overvalued at $1,900 per share?
   •   6:08 What are the expectations for Tesla's Battery Day? Does Tesla have a million mile battery?
   •   13:43 Why isn't Tesla advertising?
   •   15:12 Tesla's differentiating factors
   •   16:32 Will Tesla's Cybertruck be successful?
   •   21:20 What is exciting about Tesla right now? S&P 500 inclusion? Stock split? Why is Tesla ahead?
   •   30:44 Is Elon Musk TSLA's biggest risk?
   •   32:45 Is Tesla stock being manipulated?
   •   39:28 Tesla is a technology company
https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/interviews/jim-cramer-rob-maurer-discuss-tsla-stock-elon-musk-and-tesla-battery-day


——
Tesla’s giant Megapack battery farm in Moss Landing [California] is taking shape
October 19, 2020
Quote
The progress of Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) and Tesla Energy’s massive Megapack battery at Moss Landing, California appears to be quite consistent, with a recent flyover of the site showing that dozens of the grid-scale energy storage units have already been set up in concrete slabs. More Megapack batteries also remain wrapped on one end of the Moss Landing site, indicating that more battery installations would likely take place in the near future. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-megapack-moss-landing-update-video/
Article includes a drone video of the site.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6218 on: October 25, 2020, 02:30:07 AM »
—- Early FSD beta videos
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/24/20, 6:22 PM
"Come on Tesla, I'm ready. Let's go get lunch."
(This is an early beta version of Tesla Autopilot that still has lot of rough edges to work out before production. Sharing to let everyone see how capable it is, and what still needs work. 5x speed to fit Twitter video limits)
➡️https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1320128448145231873
[ 2:20 time-lapse vid ]
~ when it was trying to change lanes to get to the left side of the road, the guy in the lane to the left sped up
so it aborted the lane change two times before it finally did it. will hopefully be smoother before public release, but cool that it's aware of this kind of stuff
~ like it was good it can respond to stuff like that but it could have done it more smoothly
< Was that summon you used in the beginning?
~yes

  ——
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/24/20, 7:12 PM
Here's the same video but zoomed into the visualization so you can see it better
➡️https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1320141157909762049


Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/24/20, 8:10 PM
What Tesla is doing may look the same as other autonomous cars, but the way they do it couldn’t be more different
Rather than relying on big ugly expensive power hungry spinning laser beams, & pre-mapped laser scans called “HD maps”..
Tesla focused on computer vision
➡️https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1320155829731950592
[ 2:20 clip from Andrej Karpathy presentation]

—-
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/24/20, 2:38 PM
It’s a testament to how good Tesla’s vision system is that people think they cheated and used HD Maps.
They didn’t.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1320072175303290881
WMC: important to note for every other player HD Maps isn’t cheating. it’s actually their strategy
< And I have now been pointed to the tweets where people think its HD maps. These people are wrong, and embarrassing themselves. The videos they point to do not demonstrate use of HD maps; they demonstrate use of the same kind of maps (with lane info) that a modern sat-nav uses.
< HD maps are Lidar maps. Like, pre mapped locations. Teslas just use Google maps. But it relies on the cameras and radar.

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 10/24/20, 3:34 PM
Not an ordinary training  ;)
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1320086226448232448
⬇️ Photo below
< Costco [parking lot]?
~ Not Costco ;D
< Wow ! Just thinking about what it takes to make an EV move in this environment safely makes my head hurt .
<< Reality is messy
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6219 on: October 26, 2020, 12:11:54 PM »
Listening to excerpts of the Q3 results video, Must says something extremely important in terms of understanding the competition and how they will compete with Tesla.

He talks about how Tesla is insanely vertically integrated.  Then he says that competitors cannot do "catalogue engineering".  I.e. your competitor can't just get the manufacturers catalogue out, buy the same equipment, make a slightly different design and start pushing out your technology with a slightly difference face.

This is critical to understanding the position Tesla has in the marketplace.  Tesla didn't do this vertical integration because it thought it would be a cool idea to do; it did it because there was nothing on the market to service the need Tesla had.  Witness actually going to the lengths of building a new graphics and artificial intelligence processing chip.  Not because they thought it was a cool idea but there was nothing on the market, with the power, profile and energy draw, which could model 4d images and process them into a decision making pathway.

Those things didn't exist when Tesla set out to make them and they still don't really exist today.  This means that anyone trying to beat Tesla at this to take their market is going to be delivering a poorer experience.

He also talks about Tesla as a group of startups.  Not just cars but energy, superchargers, batteries, solar, power control interfaces, manufacturing plants and manufacturing equipment, insurance, software computer hardware....  The list goes on.

Beyond that he says "I don't think any of our startups have failed.  Late, maybe, failed? No".

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6220 on: October 26, 2020, 05:05:27 PM »
Per Tesla’s just-released 10Q SEC Form:

Tesla To Invest Up To $12 Billion By 2022 (new factories) - YouTube
“And still remain marginally profitable.”



OEMs are toast.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6221 on: October 26, 2020, 05:46:42 PM »
OEMs are toast.

Indeed and for a reason not being clearly sounded out.

Tesla already has $14bn cash on hand.  Tesla continues to make a profit and will continue to raise funds on the back of rising stock prices.

Tesla doesn't need to "convert" anything.  VW is looking at  €30bn just to convert existing capacity, design and deliver a platform and start manufacturing and selling them in bulk.  In other words,  €30bn to get to where Tesla was in Jan 2020.

$12bn for Tesla is to build more factories which will immediately start churning out high volume vehicles for which there remains more demand than supply.

Contrast Mercedes.

They are going to cut R&D and capital investment, bet the bank on hybrid whilst spending a small fortune on pushing out an already badly failing EV platform, all on the back of the fact that they provide a more luxurious experience than their competitors.

Here is what I think of that approach...

https://buzzdrives.com/30-luxury-car-brands-that-no-longer-exist-2/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6222 on: October 26, 2020, 06:41:24 PM »
Tesla reveals plans for its fifth Gigafactory, but it won’t be in India
October 26, 2020
Quote
According to the company’s Q3 10-Q Form for 2020, under the subheading of “Management Opportunities, Challenges, and Risks,” Tesla outlines its current production lines at each of its four currently-owned facilities.

In the table that breaks down the production processes of each facility, a final Production Location is listed as “U.S. Location(s) TBD,” indicating that the next production facility will be located in the country where the company is headquartered. The two vehicles that are listed for production at the unannounced facility are the Semi and the Roadster, and the status states that Tesla’s plans are currently “in development.”

Interestingly, CEO Elon Musk stated in early August that a third production facility in the United States was “very likely” during an interview with Jason Stein of Automotive News.

“I think at some point there will be a third Gigafactory. I’d imagine it would be up in the Northeast,” Musk said. “There’s a mass amount of stuff to do. But, do I think, at some point, we will have a third plant located in North America? I think that’s very likely. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fifth-gigafactory-united-states/

Table below.  Click to embiggen.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6223 on: October 26, 2020, 06:58:51 PM »
Quote
The two vehicles that are listed for production at the unannounced facility are the Semi and the Roadster...

Appears this will be a factory designed to make lower volume, more complex vehicles — which have very big batteries. :)
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Yuha

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6224 on: October 26, 2020, 10:18:06 PM »
Quote
The two vehicles that are listed for production at the unannounced facility are the Semi and the Roadster...

Appears this will be a factory designed to make lower volume, more complex vehicles — which have very big batteries. :)

My interpretation of "TBD" is that Tesla has not yet decided where those vehicles will be made. Could be Fremont, Texas or Nevada. Or maybe even a new factory.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6225 on: October 26, 2020, 10:58:01 PM »
If Tesla are to make their own goals of 20m vehicles they will need at least 4 more factories by the end of 2026 and probably even more unless they get every factory over 2m vehicles per year.

If you look at potential sales, they need a RHD factory in Asia to service Japan, Indonesia, Indian subcontinent, Australia, NZ and a third of Africa.

They will also need around two more factories for the LHD Asian countries.

Clearly Berlin is not enough for EMEA, so one or two more will be needed there and we haven't even got to South America.

Meanwhile the factories in the US are not enough even with Texas flat out.

You can be absolutely certain that Tesla already have an outline plan for this.

$12bn is just the short term spend to get them going. I would expect a real world $20bn to $30bn spend over the next decade for manufacturing facilities.

Of course as Tesla vehicles hit multiple millions on the road, insurance will be a growing revenue source, as will FSD.

Icing on the cake? Energy.

How will they fund it? Rights issue on growing share value whilst continuing with positive cash flow and a low net profit on high margin sales.

After all if GM can raise $50bn, I don't see why Tesla could not raise 30.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6226 on: October 27, 2020, 03:16:16 AM »
 ;D

Tesla TSLA Short Sellers Take the Crown for Worst Short Selling in Last 5 Years.
Quote
The past five years have been difficult for short-sellers and ValueWalk has created the Top 10 worst short calls.

#10 Advanced Micro Devices
#9 Sea Ltd
#8 Wayfair
#7 Square
#6 Zoom Video Communications
#5 NVIDIA
#4 Amazon
#3 Apple
#2 Alibaba
#1 Tesla

Despite the March selloff and the weakness in September, 2020 has been especially rough for short-sellers. This year, Tesla short-sellers lost an astonishing $29.2 billion on their bet, based on data from Ihor Dusaniwsky of S3 Partners. …
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/new-headline-tesla-tsla-short-sellers-dominates-worst-short-selling-for-the-last-5-years-congrats
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6227 on: October 27, 2020, 03:52:50 PM »
Is it time to review Musk's 12 tranche bonus plan?

it was ridiculed at the time as impossible.  However if you look at the actuals, Tesla is right on track.

https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/elon-musk-tesla-compensation-package-tranches-explainer

There were 12 tranches of market cap.  $100bn to $650bn.  We are bouncing around tranche 7 at the moment.  6 is fully locked in but 7 is wavering over/under.

Then we have operational goals and here we see that Covid stuck a spoke in the wheels of that.  Had Tesla produced 535k this year, Musk would have made his $35bn target.

What is interesting is that the next target, $50bn will require around 850k vehicles and the following target at %75bn will need around 1.15 million vehicles.

2021 and 2022 sewn up.

You note I'm ignoring energy, solar, fsd and EV credits for this massively increasing number of vehicles.

It is looking like the scheme was designed to be possible so long as everything worked out as planned.

Interesting bit of hindsight.  I wonder how all those press bunnies feel now?  Or at least will feel at the end of 21 when the results come out?

Of course I was using the 2020 average car price of $66k for this.  Let us drop that average car price to 55k.  We then get 1m in 2021, 1.4m in 2022 and 3.2m to hit the jackpot.

Now, unless I was missing the news, Shanghai is specced for 1m vehicles, Fremont for similar, Berlin is specced for 2m and Texas is unknown at this time.

Any bets on when Musk hits the jackpot?  Any bets after 2025?
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6228 on: October 27, 2020, 05:15:22 PM »
8th (last) adjusted EBITDA is $14 bn

last quarter 1.8bn on 140k cars
targeting ~180k cars this quarter could reach $2.4bn which is a rate of $9.6bn pa

only 46% growth to meet this highest in category target. While 46% growth shouldn't take very long, this is at full capacity on existing factories. While ramping up new factories EBITDA performance may not be as good so could be into 2023 before this is reached.

If hit 8 EBITDA targets then only need 4th revenue target which is $75bn.

8.8bn revenue in q3.
180k cars this quarter could hit $9.8bn which is a rate of $39bn
so this requires a 91% increase over current situation.

So about 1.4m cars at current average price in a year could do it but more likely needed as average prices will likely fall.

Shanghai model Y capacity possibly early 2021 is unlikely to be enough. So the capacity needed may well be not be in place until ~ the end of 2021. Ramp up of Shanghai Y will be well under way by then. So may not need much ramp up in Berlin and Texas and mid 2022 might be reasonable date for operating at capacity needed. Then it has to run at that capacity for a year to meet the targets. Further new factories/expansion in 2022/23 would help revenue but possibly hinder EBITDA targets but that seems ok as need 91% increase in revenue but only 46% increase in EBITDA.

If this happens and there is still lots of scope for further growth then final capitalisation target of $650bn (versus $397bn now) seems entirely likely.

So mid 2023 seems reasonably plausible date by which the final tranche targets needed are met.

My likely range would be a bit skewed so something like end of 2022 to end of 2024. (But who knows what might go wrong and cause it to take longer than expected.)

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6229 on: October 27, 2020, 05:55:04 PM »
The amazing thing is that we're talking a viable 2022-2024 rather than never.

If I recall, full production for Berlin was slated to be 2m vehicles per year.  Assuming a phase2 style build out like Shanghai.

If that is going to happen, it could be like Shanghai and start shortly after full production of phase 1.  With a similar delivery timeline to phase 1 and Berlin could be driving a large portion of the revenue from mid 2022.

Then we have Texas and we still don't know what the final capacity for that is.  500k phase 1 was the initial statement, but it is for Model Y so who knows.

Then we have to go back to battery day and revisit the statement by Musk, when he was talking about production line efficiency on batteries, that car production lines are only 3% efficient and that he wanted to address that.  Which means more cars from the same plants.

That all being said, I'd say end of 2024 at the outside.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6230 on: October 28, 2020, 04:34:24 PM »
Quote
The amazing thing is that we're talking a viable 2022-2024 rather than never.

Even Tesla and Musk thought these “aggressive” goals could take up to ten years to accomplish*:

CEO Performance award, published 3/2018
Period of award: 10 years
At final market cap milestone:
   Total shareholder value created:  ~$600 Billion
   Revenue: $175B, approximately 15x 2017 levels
   Adjusted EBITDA: $14B, approximately 21x 2017 levels

edit:  *if accomplished at all
« Last Edit: October 28, 2020, 04:48:25 PM by Sigmetnow »
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6231 on: October 28, 2020, 04:51:31 PM »
Not sure if the following article made it into the discussion? I didn't see it.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/06/tesla-model-3-outsells-all-other-cars-in-switzerland-in-september/

Quote
Tesla Model 3 Outsells All Other Cars In Switzerland In September

On the face of it pretty damned good however you look at it.

But if you look at the graph.



You see that Tesla sold three times the Renault Zoe and the VW ID.3 numbers respectively and beat the the Zoe Plus ID.3 sales by half again.

Which is an entirely different story.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6232 on: October 28, 2020, 05:18:28 PM »
Just to throw out a question.  If you were Tesla, where in the world would you go to get the Manganese, Nickel and Cobalt you needed for 2TWh of batteries per year?

I have my own ideas, just wondered if anyone else had thought about it?  Certainly Tesla should.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6233 on: October 28, 2020, 07:51:52 PM »
Just to throw out a question.  If you were Tesla, where in the world would you go to get the Manganese, Nickel and Cobalt you needed for 2TWh of batteries per year?

I have my own ideas, just wondered if anyone else had thought about it?  Certainly Tesla should.

Tesla in Talks with Indonesian Government for Potential Investment, Say Gov Officer
The Indonesian government is in informal, preliminary talks with electric vehicle maker Tesla about potential investments in the country, which is a major nickel producer, Reuters reported. ...
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/indonesia
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6234 on: October 28, 2020, 07:55:02 PM »
Tesla Autopilot is now a ‘distant 2nd’ to GM Super Cruise: Consumer Reports
October 28, 2020
Quote
Each of the active driving assistance systems in this year’s test was evaluated under the following metrics: Capability and Performance, Keeping the Driver Engaged, Ease of Use, Clear When Safe to Use, and Unresponsive Driver. Tesla’s Autopilot aced two of these metrics, specifically Capability and Performance as well as Ease of Use. Autopilot earned an impressive score of 9/10 in Capabilities and Performance and a 7/10 for Ease of Use.

Unfortunately for Tesla, Autopilot was rated poorly by Consumer Reports when it came to the Keeping the Driver Engaged metric. For this metric, Tesla’s driver-assist system earned a paltry 3/10 score due to Autopilot’s alleged lack of driver monitoring systems. In contrast, GM’s Super Cruise, the highest-ranking system in this metric with a 7/10 score, was praised for its camera-based driver monitoring system that uses eye-tracking technology. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autopilot-fails-vs-gm-super-cruise-consumer-reports/

Note: these tests evaluated Tesla Autopilot capabilities, not FSD.  Also, given that FSD will (“soon”) not require driver monitoring at all, it makes little sense for Tesla to add that functionality at this point.  Perhaps Autopilot will become “Highway-only FSD.”
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6235 on: October 28, 2020, 11:13:48 PM »
^ related ...

Consumer Reports: Tesla Autopilot a “Distant Second” to GM Super Cruise
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/report-tesla-autopilot-has-best-performance-gm-super-cruise-is-safest/

Cadillac Super Cruise has retained its title as the best driver assistance system on the market, Consumer Reports declared in a new ranking. Super Cruise also won CR's last ranking in 2018. While Super Cruise started out as a Cadillac-only feature, GM is planning to bring it to 22 vehicles by 2023.

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/cadillac-super-cruise-outperforms-other-active-driving-assistance-systems/

Tesla's Autopilot came in second place—a "distant second" according to Consumer Reports. The group says it saw "minor improvements in lane keeping performance" from Tesla's offering since the system was last evaluated in 2018.

Those minor improvements were enough for Autopilot to get the top spot in the "lane keeping and performance" category of CR's report. CR ranked Autopilot 9/10 for performance, while Super Cruise scored 8/10. Tesla also got top marks for Autopilot's ease of use.

But Cadillac got a much better score—seven points versus three for Tesla—for its driver monitoring system. Cadillac Super Cruise uses a driver-facing camera to verify that the driver has their eyes on the road. The system uses lights and sounds to aggressively alert the driver if they stop paying attention. By contrast, Tesla uses a steering wheel torque sensor to determine whether the driver is holding the wheel. As CR points out, having hands on the wheel "does not necessarily mean the driver is actually looking at the road ahead."

CR also gave Cadillac credit for limiting the use of Super Cruise to pre-mapped highways. GM has made detailed maps of thousands of miles of highway across the US. The maps help Super Cruise understand the road and allows the vehicle to alert drivers ahead of time if they need to take the wheel. Tesla got dinged for allowing the use of Autopilot in residential areas—areas where drivers need to pay especially close attention to avoid hitting pedestrians or other obstacles.

Finally, CR found that Super Cruise did the best job of safely bringing the vehicle to a stop if the driver became unresponsive—for example because she fell asleep or had a heart attack.

... GM took a safety-first approach in designing Super Cruise. Limiting Super Cruise to pre-mapped areas and aggressively reminding users to pay attention to the road minimizes the chances that Super Cruise will cause a crash. However it might annoy users who don't like their cars limiting what they can do.

By contrast, Tesla has prioritized driver convenience and autonomy. Tesla allows drivers to activate Autopilot on a wide variety of roads. Early versions of the technology were even more permissive about driver engagement, allowing drivers to take their hands off the wheel for long periods. Tesla began tightening up rules requiring hands on the wheel after the first fatal Autopilot-related crash in 2016. But Tesla's system has remained less restrictive than GM's. The lack of aggressive driver monitoring systems may have been a factor in more recent fatal crashes involving Tesla cars.

... it's notable that these systems are becoming increasingly common in the marketplace. When CR did its first evaluation in 2018, it tested only four systems. Now there are 17 systems on the market, with almost every major auto manufacturer offering one.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6236 on: October 29, 2020, 02:35:10 AM »
Just to throw out a question.  If you were Tesla, where in the world would you go to get the Manganese, Nickel and Cobalt you needed for 2TWh of batteries per year?

I have my own ideas, just wondered if anyone else had thought about it?  Certainly Tesla should.

More:  Australia
Tesla potential nickel partner BHP inks deal to boost renewables for its operations
October 28, 2020
Quote
Haegel has been pretty open about the potential offered by companies like Tesla for mining firms like BHP. During the Diggers and Dealers forum in Kalgoorlie earlier this month, the BHP executive mentioned that Tesla’s demand for sustainably-mined nickel could become opportunities for the mining industry. Haegel did not confirm if BHP was looking at a deal with Tesla then, though he did note that the mining giant is looking to upgrade its nickel processing and production facilities.

“At Tesla’s recent battery day, Elon Musk flagged the enormous demand that will come for nickel as this decade unfolds. His call for nickel miners to grow quickly offers real evidence of the place nickel has as a strategic battery metal going forward. Nickel West is well-positioned to benefit from this anticipated growth. Last year, we sold around 70% of our nickel to battery manufacturers around the world, making BHP one of the world’s leading battery metal suppliers,” he said
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-nickel-supplier-bhp-boosts-renewables/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6237 on: October 29, 2020, 09:56:41 AM »
Yes traditional thinking.  It is interesting because if Tesla had used Traditional thinking they would never have reached their position in the marketplace.

Personally, were I Tesla, I would use the engineering skills and knowledge to mine in a place where the estimates are that the total amount of nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone exceeds 21 billions of tons (Bt), containing about 5.95 Bt of manganese, 0.27 Bt of nickel, 0.23 Bt of copper and 0.05 Bt of cobalt.

Over and above that the resource contains copper and Iron and a whole load more minerals.  Not easy to get at, but no questions as to labour practises.

That is only one zone.  But it is the heaviest in deposits.

If we want a renewable future, we need that resource and it is going to take a company like Tesla, SpaceX or TBC to get it.

In case it looks too small, that is 100 years worth of annual global nickel production in one area.

However going down that rabbit hole is probably for another thread on resources.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6238 on: October 29, 2020, 02:56:40 PM »
Let´s try mining on land first...
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6239 on: October 29, 2020, 03:17:46 PM »
Reading the press on the FSD beta, perhaps Tesla missed a trick before rolling it out?

Simply put the Tesla FSD is a novice driver.  I had a look at the novice drivers laws for CA and the "experienced driver" behind the wheel is far more than existing novice driver laws require.

Maybe if they had presented it in this way, it would have been easier to stop the constant criticism that is going on.  After all, if you can let a 15 year old behind the wheel with passenger seat supervision, you can let a young AI behind the wheel with drivers seat supervision.

One benefit of this beta is Every AI driver will get exactly the combined experience of all cumulative driven miles and situations.  The goal here is to Make mistakes, recognise why the mistakes were made and rectify the AI learning to allow for that.  Just as a new novice driver does.

From what I have seen so far, FSD is better than most new novice drivers and requires less supervision and control.

As has been said, if it worked perfectly it would not be a beta. But, in order for it to work perfectly, it actually needs to drive and learn.

I do wonder just who pays those who are writing negative articles??
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6240 on: October 29, 2020, 03:27:47 PM »
Let´s try mining on land first...

Or in Tesla terms we could say

"Let's allow someone else to make our own batteries and suck up whatever quality/technology they want to sell us"
"Let's make cars with a high human component because that is how it has been done"
"Let's use Nvidia computers and just suck up the power drain and heat loss"
"Let's make new factories the same way everyone else does and take 2-4 years to come to production".


Tesla is about firsts.  Polymetallic nodules contain at least 4 of the minerals Tesla requires and in sufficient quantity for their needs.  On land Tesla would need to create contracts with multiple different suppliers and the minerals, in the volume needed, are mostly in places in the world which carry issues with reputational damage for buying them.

Tesla is all about firsts and that is what got them where they are today.  If they start going for seconds, now, they may just stumble at the final hurdle.

If they do this, nobody can just come in and offer the miners a better deal or lean on the miners.  Tesla would BE the miners.

There is enough cobalt, manganese, nickel, copper and iron down there to unlock every Tesla vehicle for the next 100 years.  It also has viable quantities of aluminium.

There isn't a company in the world, today, who has more to gain by mining this resource.  Or more to lose, potentially, by not.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6241 on: October 29, 2020, 04:02:01 PM »
The goal here is to Make mistakes, recognise why the mistakes were made and rectify the AI learning to allow for that.  Just as a new novice driver does.

Example:
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog)10/26/20, 11:14 PM
FSD pace of improvement is insane

Yesterday there was an issue in one spot where it was going into the right turn lane rather than hanging left and going straight.

flagged the problem. next day, fixed. no software update required

improved learning infrastructure? 
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1320926741595000832
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kassy

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6242 on: October 29, 2020, 04:04:30 PM »
Deep in the eastern central Pacific Ocean, on a stretch of sea floor nearly as big as the continental United States, researchers are discovering species faster than they can name them. And they are exploring newfound fossil beds of whales that lived up to 16 million years ago.

The findings — many reported for the first time last week at the Deep-Sea Biology Symposium in Monterey, California — have come as a shock. Some scientists had thought these vast underwater plains, 4,000–5,500 metres below the ocean surface, were relatively lifeless. But that is changing just as nations and corporations prepare to mine this patch of the Pacific sea bed for cobalt, manganese and other elements for use in technologies such as smartphones and electric cars.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06771-w

It´s so much more then just ´ores´. We should not do sea mining since there is probably enough on land and we could also try to live within our means.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6243 on: October 29, 2020, 05:00:56 PM »
Certainly traditional techniques of driving a harvester along the sea bed, trashing the entire bed, crushing up the nodules and vomiting out anything not wanted to poison the sea bed; are not tenable.

I wasn't really talking about that.  I was assuming that Tesla could come up with a far better solution.  One more in harmony.

Living within our means?  Great, no problem, FF all the way.  They are within our means and nobody really needs to worry too much for this generation.  Pity about the rest but, you know, not our problem.  If we run out of easily reachable FF we can just harvest the methane clathrates and carry on.

That is the response you'll get to "living within our means".  People need options and trying to go renewable and recyclable without the means and the material is not going to happen.

Anyway.  It was just a thought.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6244 on: October 29, 2020, 08:52:27 PM »
Certainly traditional techniques of driving a harvester along the sea bed, trashing the entire bed, crushing up the nodules and vomiting out anything not wanted to poison the sea bed; are not tenable.

I wasn't really talking about that.  I was assuming that Tesla could come up with a far better solution.  One more in harmony.

More in harmony with what? Goldman Sachs? JP Morgan? S&P 500 ?
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6245 on: October 30, 2020, 01:08:30 PM »
Yes, that is today. Most of these nodules are not being mined for more than nickel or cobalt. The waste is simply dumped.

EV requires far more of the nodule so dumping the excess is something that can be barred entirely.

I did also mention that driving a vehicle along the seabed was sub optimal. As well as highly destructive.

We need bright people looking at this, not avaricious people.

Anyway, it was a thought. It is unlikely we will get all the minerals out of the ground without paying a heavy price, politically and environmentally.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6246 on: October 30, 2020, 01:09:42 PM »
Back to FSD.  The update of the beta includes all the learning from the recent beta test drive.  Owners can literally see their vehicle learning to drive.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6247 on: October 30, 2020, 02:15:18 PM »
At the link: a two-minute, totally biased, hilarious comparison of Supercruise vs. Autopilot. ;D
Based on clips from a two-month-old Supercruise youtube review.

➡️ https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1321732764303990784

< Yeh but *apart* from the trees, the sunglasses, the non mapped roads, not staying in lane and wobbling like a 13 year old, it seems OK to me?
Whole Mars Catalog: there’s more coming.  that’s the max twitter video size.

   —-
Plus the fact that the only car with Supercruise, the Cadillac CT-6, has been discontinued. If you want that feature in a new car, you have to wait for other vehicles that have it.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6248 on: October 30, 2020, 03:30:14 PM »
In the blue corner one 16 year old novice driver.  In the red corner one trained circus chimp.

Give it 3 months and lets see which one improves...
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6249 on: October 31, 2020, 02:48:05 AM »
Here are a few recent FSD beta videos.

Ignore the narrator’s gushing about how perfect the car’s performance is (it isn’t), but there’s some interesting FSD moments here.
Tesla Full Self Driving Beta Test Drive (daylight) - YouTube


—-
The famous winding, steep hill in San Francisco, California, dubbed “The Crookedest Street in the World.”  It’s a One Way street, downhill.
Full-Self Driving Beta on Lombard Street - YouTube


< Cars behind you didn’t honk? Very patient drivers in that corner of the world.
Tesla Raj:  Irritated yes, honk no...it’s SF we don’t honk much lol.
https://twitter.com/tesla_raj/status/1322227550249050112

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< What impresses you the most about FSD?

Whole Mars Catalog: How many new things it’s doing at once and especially the turns

Tesla Raj:  Turns. Left turns and right turns.   Right turn on Red Light. [In most locations in the U.S., a car waiting at a red light may proceed to make a right turn, if traffic permits.]

Vincent: 
Here is a new Tesla FSD Beta clip from my road test few days ago in the Pacific Coast Highway.
As you can see from the clip, #FSDBeta detected pedestrian crossing and yielded the right of way. Also made the right turn into PCH in a [safe] manner.
➡️ https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1321960838618509312

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Zeb Hallock: One more tonight. Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) Beta - "Paved Road Ends" - Drive #3 #FSDBeta #Tesla
[Gravel road through the woods, lots of hills and turns.]

Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) Beta - "Paved Road Ends" - Drive #3 - North Carolina - YouTube


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Edit:  one more:
Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) 10/30/20, 8:35 PM
#FSDBeta handling neighborhood side streets amazing with oncoming traffic.
➡️ https://twitter.com/teslaownerssv/status/1322336344534773760
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 02:59:03 AM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.