Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Tesla glory/failure  (Read 409887 times)

BeeKnees

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 195
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 47
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6300 on: November 12, 2020, 02:48:08 PM »
True on the graft and timeline, but if Lidar was a $200 add in choice, would it make things better or worse?  Just using it as another input should not cause that much problem with the existing model. It might, in certain circumstances, make things a bit faster as it would reduce uncertainty and uncertainty takes a lot of processing power to resolve.

This can work both ways, just deciding whether Lidar agrees with other inputs is an overhead and if Lidar conflicts then that generates uncertainty and a decision on which inputs are most reliable given the circumstances ( speed, distance, visibility ).  Without Lidar you reduce this extra layer of decision making, the question becomes whether it was necessary to increase the quantity of inputs and therefore increase the amount of decisions to be made, only Tesla can know the answer to that.   

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6301 on: November 12, 2020, 03:47:47 PM »
Oh I think we're pretty certain it is not necessary.  Whether it would help or not...  Another question entirely.

The problem is that those who have not put in the effort to build the Artificial driver, as opposed to the Artificial aiming device, will tell you that Lidar and Lidar maps are necessary.  That doesn't mean it is true.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3724
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 653
  • Likes Given: 440
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6302 on: November 12, 2020, 04:57:43 PM »
Visual inputs are challenged in heavy fog, rain and snow.  Having a technology to compensate for some of the loss would be very useful.  Just as a car keeps its headlights during daytime driving (i.e., they are not removed, just turned off), Lidar could be utilized only when needed. 

(There was a time when carriage lanterns were only carried [or 'installed'] when nighttime trips were anticipated.)

Some four-wheel-drive vehicles have a winch permanently attached to the front bumper, even if it is only rarely needed.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6303 on: November 12, 2020, 05:27:58 PM »
“LIDAR can work better in the dark because it provides its own light. But it can be worse in fog, rain and snow because the light has to go through the fog, rain and snow twice. If the path from the laser or back to the sensor gets blocked then LIDAR doesn't work.”

Tesla & Google Disagree About LIDAR -- Which Is Right?
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/07/29/tesla-google-disagree-lidar-right/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6304 on: November 13, 2020, 10:15:09 AM »
You missed the last one Sig,

This is the combined Tesla sensor set.



It is a bit oversimplistic though.  Because it doesn't show that some of the stronger capabilities are weaker in different conditions.  For instance Lidar works in the dark with higher resolution than radar.

It is easy to see why Tesla did what they did.  The simplistic view with a simplistic chart makes it look even more compelling.  But it is not the whole story.  It will do for now and it will still give more than a human driver has.  If that is what we are aiming at, then what Tesla is doing is perfect.

However Tesla is marketing that FSD will be "significantly" better in terms of accidents than humans.  When FSD starts making all the decisions with minimal input, the sensor net and interpretive software will be put to the most stringent tests.

There is a thing with engineering.  If you only engineer to the expected size of the problem then, when it is being utilised 100%, failures happen.  If you size your solution to 200% or 300% of the problem, you reduce the number of failures and make it impossible to drive the system to 100% utilisation.  Unless your scoping was way, way, off.

I'm just looking further down the road than today and wondering if Tesla will eventually need to round the sensor suite out with a cheap and available Lidar sensor.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6305 on: November 13, 2020, 01:21:32 PM »
Breaking — Elon Musk Tests Positive For SARS-CoV-2

Edit:  I’ve started a new thread for this ⬇️, so it doesn’t take over this one.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3328.0.html
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 01:54:10 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1205
  • Likes Given: 1065
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6306 on: November 13, 2020, 02:09:28 PM »
You omitted he also tested negative.  ;)

Anyway i don´t think that the news in itself is interesting. Even if he is positive he will probably have a mild case so as far as i care it only becomes relevant if he actually comes down with a serious case.

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6307 on: November 13, 2020, 04:00:27 PM »
You omitted he also tested negative.  ;)

Anyway i don´t think that the news in itself is interesting. Even if he is positive he will probably have a mild case so as far as i care it only becomes relevant if he actually comes down with a serious case.

I agree with all that.  But “Elon + COVID” seems to trigger some folks, so I was just looking ahead.
There are  debatable aspects:
- The acuracy of tests
- How the test results will affect Musk’s activities (will he not be able to attend the Crew-1 launch, or the Starship pre-flight tests)? :'(
- The news will no doubt affect the stock price, regardless of its actual importance.
- Doomers will suggest Tesla will go bankrupt.

But if folks think there is really nothing worth discussing, that’s cool, too.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3262
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 829
  • Likes Given: 204
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6308 on: November 14, 2020, 07:58:28 AM »
Like Trump, he will get early and very precise medical attention. The best money can afford. He will very likely be fine. If he was a regular obese 50 year old man I would be more concerned.  Privilege makes it so that his probability of harm is minuscule.

Of course, that is assuming that the ones advising him on Covid aren't the ones treating him. If the same people that advise him on things like the tweet below provide his healthcare, he might be in trouble.

Quote
Possible explanation for the dramatic decline in cold & flu prevalence vs prior years. If someone comes in with cold/flu symptoms & falsely tests positive for cov2, they will assume they have it, when in fact they simply have some other form of seasonal cold/flu.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6309 on: November 14, 2020, 10:19:07 AM »
With over 600k new cases, daily, around the world and Musk still travelling, it is hardly surprising he got it eventually.

Also, it has to be mentioned that getting Covid is hardly an instant death sentence and that treatment regimes for everyone are worlds apart from where they were in the spring. The loss of so much life has allowed an experimentation program that would never have been allowed normally but has produced dramatic results in being able to treat the virus.

Charts are upside down now, with a massive increase in infections daily but, in most countries, deaths being much lower than in the spring. This is largely down to the ability to provide treatment to support the patient until their own immune system can deal with the virus.

Reality remains the same though. Of people under 50, in the UK, who have had the infection, deaths remain between 100 and 200; with 50,000 dead overall.

For Musk, this is not likely to be a big problem.  Unless he has some undiagnosed serious pre condition.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6310 on: November 14, 2020, 10:20:38 AM »
With the Tesla Waymo spat ongoing, insideev's posted the following video.

Worth watching.

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3262
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 829
  • Likes Given: 204
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6311 on: November 14, 2020, 10:50:29 AM »
The risk of death of C19 for those under 60 is like the risk of death from a car accident if we include everything from fender benders to high-speed highway crashes. As individuals, chances are that if we get C19, the risk of it is like a fender bender. Some people will get highway speed accidents tho.

Elon Musk is 49 and relatively healthy. He is unlikely to get anything more than a few dead lung and brain cells. A fender bender. In the <5% chance he had a serious illness, he would get the Trump treatment. A fender bender while riding on a tank. The same for his family ( perhaps not his father), in case he gave it to them. They should all be fine. Even his mother at 72 has very little to fear from C19. They have privileges. She won't be standing in line to be tested for C19. She will get top therapeutics at the first sign of trouble.

That's why Elon should really STFU about coronavirus. He has nothing to lose to it except money.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6312 on: November 14, 2020, 01:40:07 PM »
Meanwhile Tesla drops another FSD beta update.

Pity VW can't do the same.

Forget self driving for VW, it doesn't even work consistently nor clearly recognise navigation commands.

Cross posted from the EV thread.  Forget any kind of self drive, the VW has basic issues with the core functionality.

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Stephen

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 148
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6313 on: November 16, 2020, 08:54:46 AM »
this been done yet? 

tesla wins a rally
The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
  Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6314 on: November 16, 2020, 12:39:45 PM »
I wonder how much longer we are going to have to put up with cherry picking like this?

VW Sold 75x As Many ID.3s In The Netherlands In October As Tesla Sold Model 3s

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2020/11/04/vw-sold-75x-as-many-id3s-in-the-netherlands-in-october-as-tesla-sold-model-3s/?sh=50b558213eb5

It does tip the hat at the Tesla challenges on shipping from Fremont.

Quote
So, October, the first month of the fruit quarter, is never going to be a great one for Tesla in Europe, as all Teslas TSLA -0.8% sold there are shipped from the company’s Fremont, CA location.

But stops very short of telling the truth.  Because, as far as I can find, the number of Teslas, shipped from Fremont, in October, to Europe and ready for sale in October was....

Zero.

It is not hard to sell more than someone who has no product in the market in any one month.

December will be a telling point, even November will be a big pointer.  But, by that time, this poster will have shut up and crawled back under the rock he came from.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6315 on: November 16, 2020, 12:48:20 PM »
Estimating production for 2021.

Going the rounds of the articles, it is clear that nobody is actually joining the dots.

Teslarati says

Quote
Tesla hasn’t formally set a production and delivery goal for 2021 yet, but it will definitely exceed its 500,000 guidance of 2020. Recently, Giga Shanghai’s 2021 goals were leaked and revealed Tesla China set a 550,000 guidance for 2021.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-texas-austin-engineering-job-openings/

Evtalk au says.

Quote
Model 3 and Model Y production have reached a run-rate of 500,000 vehicles annually at the Fremont factory, with the ability to produce 90,000 Model S and Model X annually, as well as Gigafactory Shanghai’s 250,000 annual capacity, allowing Tesla to head towards a run-rate of one million cars annually.

https://evtalk.com.au/tesla-q3-a-record/#:~:text=Model%203%20and%20Model%20Y,of%20one%20million%20cars%20annually.

Put them together and you get a potential run rate of 1.14 million.  OK I'd say 1.11 as models S/X are not running at full capacity any more as the orders do not warrant it.

This ignores both Texas and Berlin.

It also ignores the fact that Fremont is still ramping Model Y with their temporary line and will be more than 500k in 2021.

Doubling is pretty much guaranteed.  I wonder if it will take until Q3 2021 for the press to wake up to the potential for much more than doubling?

So, I wonder, when will the press wake up
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6316 on: November 16, 2020, 12:53:07 PM »
Giga Texas, major levelling required, Day 116



Nikola, flat field, Day 113


Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3724
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 653
  • Likes Given: 440
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6317 on: November 16, 2020, 06:38:04 PM »
Neil,
It must be harder to do construction in Arizona than in Texas.  What else could possibly explain the "Day 113" difference????  :P ::)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6318 on: November 17, 2020, 12:34:30 AM »
 Here we go, boys and girls!

Tesla jumps 9%, carmaker to join S&P 500
Quote
(Reuters) - Shares of Tesla Inc surged 9% in extended trade on Monday after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the electric carmaker would join the S&P 500 index, a major win for Chief Executive Elon Musk and his shareholders.

Tesla will join the S&P 500 prior to the opening of trading on Dec. 21, S&P Dow Jones Indices said in a news release.

Due to Tesla’s unusually large market capitalization, S&P Dow Jones Indices said it would consult investors about whether the company should be added all at once or in two separate tranches.

With a market capitalization over $380 billion, Tesla is one of the most valuable companies on Wall Street.

Tesla’s inclusion in the widely followed stock market index means investment funds that track the S&P 500 will have to buy billions of dollars worth of the company’s shares.

A blockbuster quarterly report in July cleared a major hurdle for Tesla’s potential inclusion.
https://www.reuters.com/article/-usa-stocks-tesla/update-1-tesla-jumps-9-carmaker-to-join-sp-500-idUSL1N2I233L

TSLA is currently up 56 to $464 in after-hours trading. (Up 13.5%.)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4383
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2477
  • Likes Given: 336
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6319 on: November 17, 2020, 08:30:39 AM »
Chevrolet Recalls the Bolt EV After 5 Confirmed Battery Fires
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/11/chevrolet-issues-a-recall-for-2017-2019-bolt-evs-due-to-battery-fires/

In October, news broke that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration had opened an investigation of the Chevrolet Bolt EV due to potential battery fires while charging. On Friday, Chevrolet announced a recall affecting all model year 2017 and 2018 Bolt EVs, as well as certain MY2019 Bolt EVs.

The problem involves battery packs containing cells made at LG Chem's factory in Ochang, Korea. Chevrolet says that, working with NHTSA, it confirmed a total of five Bolt EV fires caused by this issue, which occurred when charging the cars' battery packs to full capacity.

Affected owners should contact their local Chevrolet dealer to schedule the software fix, which is available later this week. The update will prevent the battery from charging beyond 90 percent, and Chevrolet says it will have a permanent fix that restores the battery's ability to use 100 percent of its state of charge as soon as possible after January 1, 2021.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6320 on: November 17, 2020, 12:32:01 PM »
Tesla jumps 9%, carmaker to join S&P 500

I guess it was long enough to allow the members to slowly build up their share portfolio without being driven into a rising spiral.

Good for Tesla though.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6321 on: November 17, 2020, 07:31:09 PM »
Here’s Rob Mauer’s Monday deep dive into Tesla’s S&P 500 inclusion (his last, he hopes!) with answers to questions.  He notes that the Tesla inclusion will be unique in several aspects.  The longest any other stock has gone between announcement and inclusion was 10 days, and S&P are seeking investor input as to whether the transaction should be done over two days, some time apart.

Tesla (TSLA) Added to the S&P 500 Index - Tesla Daily Live Replay - YouTube


Timestamps:
0:00 Audio check
0:53 S&P 500 announcement
5:17 Weighting & impact on TSLA
13:30 Unique announcement timing/structure
18:38 Buying demand on TSLA
21:20 Where does TSLA go from here?
22:40 What about other funds?
24:15 The $50B impact?
25:48 Another stock split impact?
27:08 Closing thoughts
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6322 on: November 18, 2020, 04:26:47 PM »
—- More on S&P 500 inclusion
Quote
Johnna Crider:
Is it coincidence that the S&P 500 is adding $tsla to the index on the *shortest* day of the year?
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/17/20, 10:46 AM
Fate [heart] Irony 
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1328726273808535552

Quote
< Gary, given the 13% AH movement today, is your 12-15% incremental to the current ~$460 price or the ~$410 closing price?
Gary Black (@garyblack00)11/16/20, 7:17 PM
No, I expect 12-15% increase vs pre-announcement price, so $460-$465 by 12/21. Many of those buying AH are HFs who will sell to the indexers when the indexers start buying a week before 12/21. That said, I’m not aware of S&P ever giving a one-month buy-in. $tsla

Gary Black:
Obviously, the price rise depends how many $TSLA shareholders are willing to part with their shares. With Biden’s clean energy focus, 4Q vols/EPS likely to beat, FSD rollout, MIC Y launch, a 800K+ FY’21 vol guide, CyTruck next year, I’m not selling ANY of my shares to indexers!

Gary Black:
If nobody is willing to sell their $TSLA shares, there really could be a TSLA “index-squeeze” around Dec 21 as indexers scramble to buy TSLA shares. Indexers alone need about 122M shares out of 760M share float. We all believe $TSLA is worth so much more than $460 ($720 PT)!
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1328499321629798401


—- Tesla’s largest public Supercharger with 56 V3 stalls goes online
Considering the fact that the site is fitted with V3 stations, as well as the fact that it’s located between San Francisco and Los Angeles, there is a good chance that the Firebaugh Supercharger will usually be busy.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-largest-supercharger-v3-goes-online/


—- FSD
Tesla FSD beta performs smooth 180-degree forced turn in real-world test
(But not on first attempt.)
November 10, 2020
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fsd-beta-180-degree-turn-test-video/

➡️http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNBEHumIHJI

Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 11/15/20, 7:03 PM
Waymo and Cruise testing has accelerated significantly in San Francisco. They are all over the place
They want to be seen and not forgotten as Tesla FSD rolls out
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1328126385588629505

Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 11/15/20, 8:20 PM

Waymo equipped Jaguar I-PACE are on the streets of san francisco
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1328145959272869888

Quote
Lisa #TeslaTruth (@TeslaLisa) 11/16/20, 12:14 PM
Um, my car just took me to Home Depot. Including the most complicated intersection and merge. Right into the parking lot. Pristinely!  #FSDBeta $tsla #tesla
https://twitter.com/teslalisa/status/1328385862325952513
< what did it want you to buy?
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6323 on: November 18, 2020, 08:58:55 PM »
-— Is Tesla’s S&P inclusion really a good thing?  The big three index investment houses hold huge voting blocks of stock.
Quote
Gary Black (@garyblack00) 11/17/20, 7:36 PM
S&P senior index analyst Howard Silverblatt was asked whether $TSLA CEO @elonmusk could weigh in on how S&P should add TSLA to the S&P 500 (one or two tranches, % each tranche).
Silverblatt’s response: “If he wants to put in a comment, that's fine and dandy." Go for it, Elon.

Elon Musk:
Wise words from Bogle [below]. The point of companies is products & services. They have no point in & of themselves, nor do these indices. Buy & hold stock in companies where you love the product roadmap, sell where you don’t.
wsj.com/amp/articles/b…
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1329114904817758208


< Here's the article linked to by @elonmusk but not under a paywall for those interested.
WEEKEND INVESTOR
Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds
The father of the index fund says it’s probably only a matter of time before they own half of all U.S. stocks; ‘I do not believe that such concentration would serve the national interest’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bogle-sounds-a-warning-on-index-funds-1543504551


Elon Musk (@elonmusk)11/18/20, 12:31 PM
 The only publicly traded stock I own is Tesla
Gary Black:
 I only own stocks where I personally love the product or service. It’s why the shorts got this so wrong. And I don’t believe much in diversification either. Thanks for your leadership!  $tsla
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1329115066801811457
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6324 on: November 18, 2020, 10:03:15 PM »
“Tesla is the largest company to ever be added to the S&P 500.”

S&P 500 Insider On Tesla Stock's Inclusion - YouTube



—- Giga Texas
Tesla Cybertruck production edges closer as Giga Texas reportedly shifts to 24/7 construction [Video]
November 14, 2020
Quote
According to drone operator and Tesla enthusiast Jeff Roberts, there are now three shifts for Giga Texas’ construction work, meaning there will be continuous progress on the construction site.

“Well, it’s happened; Tesla has effectively doubled [its] productivity by approving 3 crew shifts to work 24 hours per day, 7 days per week- effective IMMEDIATELY!” wrote Roberts in the description of one of his latest videos.

In September, Teslarati reported that Tesla estimated Giga Texas would have its “First Dry-in” by December 30, 2020 and its “First Substantial Completion” by May 1, 2021. A “dry-in” means a building’s shell is sufficiently complete enough to place equipment inside it. With 24/7 construction work, Tesla might be able to meet its December goals and begin trial production for the Cybertruck.

With three shifts and 24-hour construction going on at Tesla’s factory in Austin, Giga Texas may rival the lightning speed of Giga Shanghai. Tesla China workers were able to complete the first phase of Gigafactory Shanghai less than a year since the beginning of its construction. The first production Model 3s were rolled out exactly one year after its ground-breaking ceremony. 
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-production-giga-texas-24-7-night-construction-video/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4383
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2477
  • Likes Given: 336
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6325 on: November 21, 2020, 02:08:05 PM »
sorry if this is already posted ...

------------------------------------------------

Tesla Opens World’s Northernmost Supercharger Station
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/new-energy/2020/11/tesla-opens-worlds-northernmost-supercharger-station

70 DEGREES NORTH - Long-distance winter drive through remote areas with electric cars in northernmost Europe is becoming safer and more reliable as a comprehensive network of Supercharger and high-power stations are switched on.

Varangerbotn, some 400 kilometers inside the Arctic Circle, is the most faraway location Tesla has turned on the power anywhere on the European continent. The two nearest Supercharger stations are Puoltikasvaara (Sweden), 623 km to the south, and Sørkjosen (Norway) 562 km to the west.

... These are not the roads where you wanna run empty of battery. With an expanded network soon up and charging, that challenge is solved.

Ten new Supercharger stations inside the Arctic Circle in northern Scandinavia are in the pipe. The network is geographically well distributed throughout the region and the chosen locations are at the main crossroads. In northern Norway, Supercharger stations are to be opened in Karasjok, Kautokeino, Skaidi, Alta and Evenes. In Finnish Lapland, Karesuvanto and Inari are chosen, while Abisko and Jokkmokk in Sweden’s Norrbotten county are soon to come.

As previously reported by The Barents Observer, local power companies in Troms and Finnmark county, with financial support from the Norwegian state, are deploying a network of 17 high-power 175 kW chargers and eight 50 kW fast chargers. By November 20, nine of the stations are opened, while most of the remaining will be connected to the grid before Christmas.

No roads throughout the region will have more than 100 km between each charging station. Troms and Finnmark county is twice the size of Belgium.

In Varangerbotn, the three V3 250 kW stalls by Tesla are placed with space enough to easily accommodate future Cybertrucks with trailers and possible Semi trucks. A station with 150 kW fast-chargers available for other electric cars is placed next to Tesla’s stalls.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

zizek

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 440
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 53
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6326 on: November 21, 2020, 04:41:27 PM »
Tesla factory workers are classified as "essential workers" under california's new covid restrictions. Between this and Proposition 22, the United States is truly a tech oligarchy.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6327 on: November 21, 2020, 04:53:17 PM »
Tesla TSLA Fremont Factory Night Shift Won’t Be Affected By New California Curfew Order
Quote
Despite the curfew, some activities may continue in the same manner as before. For example, businesses that operate night shifts remain open, such as Tesla's Fremont factory. All workers on night shifts can continue to go to work. This means that the new measures will not have a negative impact on Tesla's production and delivery planned for Q4 2020.
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-tsla-fremont-factory-night-shift-won-t-be-affected-by-the-new-california-curfew-order

—- See Reply #6322 above...
“At the largest Supercharger to date(Firebaugh, CA), it’s insane!!”
https://twitter.com/tonytesla4life/status/1329991759103856640
Four photos at the link.  Open just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday — except with the current Covid surge, travel should be much less than previous years….

—-
Fremont Police Dept. Releases Uplifting EV Pilot Program Results
November 20th, 2020
Quote
In March 2019, the Fremont Police Department began testing a Tesla Model S 85 that was customized for patrol operations. Testing ended one year later, and yesterday, the Fremont Police Department (PD) released the test results and emailed them over to CleanTechnica (and surely other media outlets).

Results found that the vehicle exceeded performance and operational objectives while also taking on the challenges of police use. The vehicle required minimal maintenance and was proven to be cost-effective when the overall cost of the vehicle — with maintenance and fuel savings included — was factored into the equation.

The Tesla Model S 85 had lower average annual maintenance downtime — just under 40 days compared with 66 days for the Ford Patrol Police Vehicle (PPV). It also had zero operational CO2 emissions while the Ford PPV had 42,198 points of CO2 emissions annually.

Fremont’s Police Captain, Sean Washington, spoke about how encouraging the results were. “The final results from the one-year Electric Patrol Vehicle Pilot Program have been encouraging as the City of Fremont continues to look for cost-effective ways to help make Fremont more sustainable. With an average of 27 fewer days of downtime per year, a savings of $2,147 in the total annual cost of energy/fuel, maintenance, and repair, and no operational carbon dioxide emissions, the pilot program results have prompted Fremont PD to move forward with plans to expand its fleet of electric patrol vehicle alternatives.” …
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/11/20/fremont-police-dept-releases-uplifting-ev-pilot-program-results/amp/


—- Honda sees hybrids, not BEVs, to 2030.
SMR:
Why Tesla Will DESTROY Legacy Automakers (w/Sandy Munro) - YouTube


“In this video I react to, discuss and share my opinoins on clips with Sandy Munro (engineering expert) on Tesla, innovation and the wider automotive industry. I also make an example of Honda's CEO and Honda Canada's CEO, both of whom seem completely blind to the world's inevitable transition to electric vehicles (EVs). These comments will come to haunt them.”

SOURCE: ◆ Sandy Munro on Tesla, Electric Vehicles and more! Ep. 6 #https://youtu.be/MrvvVSwEgmE


—- FSD
https://twitter.com/yonathan_78800/status/1330063058841063426
Photo below.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2020, 04:59:07 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6328 on: November 22, 2020, 02:47:17 AM »
Quote
< I don’t understand the S&P inclusion numbers.  Help?

Gary Black (@garyblack00) 11/21/20, 10:37 AM
There are $5 trillion in S&P index funds. They have to buy $tsla in at a 1.2% float-adj weight (760M shares float x $490 / $31.0T S&P cap). $5T x 1.2% = $60 billion / $490 = 122M Tesla shares = 16 % $TSLA float. 
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1330173495603585029
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4383
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2477
  • Likes Given: 336
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6329 on: November 23, 2020, 06:28:03 PM »
Pwned: Bluetooth Attack Can Steal a Tesla Model X in Minutes
https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-model-x-hack-bluetooth/amp

The company is rolling out a patch for the vulnerabilities, which allowed one researcher to break into one in 90 seconds and drive away.

Tesla has always prided itself on its so-called over-the-air updates, pushing out new code automatically to fix bugs and add features. But one security researcher has shown how vulnerabilities in the Tesla Model X's keyless entry system allow a different sort of update: A hacker could rewrite the firmware of a key fob via Bluetooth connection, lift an unlock code from the fob, and use it to steal a Model X in just a matter of minutes.

Lennert Wouters, a security researcher at Belgian university KU Leuven, today revealed a collection of security vulnerabilities he found in both Tesla Model X cars and their keyless entry fobs. He discovered that those combined vulnerabilities could be exploited by any car thief who manages to read a car's vehicle identification number—usually visible on a car's dashboard through the windshield—and also come within roughly 15 feet of the victim's key fob.

The hardware kit necessary to pull off the heist cost Wouters around $300, fits inside a backpack, and is controlled from the thief's phone. In just 90 seconds, the hardware can extract a radio code that unlocks the owner's Model X. Once the car thief is inside, a second, distinct vulnerability Wouters found would allow the thief to pair their own key fob with the victim's vehicle after a minute's work and drive the car away.

Wouters says he warned Tesla about his Model X keyless entry hacking technique in August. ... Tesla told Wouters that the patch may take close to a month to roll out across all of its vulnerable vehicles, so Model X owners should be sure to install any updates Tesla makes available to them over the coming weeks to prevent the hack.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6330 on: November 24, 2020, 12:57:22 AM »
Quote
Bluetooth Attack Can Steal a Tesla Model X in Minutes
:o
Can prevent this (and foil other cyber attacks) by using Tesla’s PIN To Drive feature....
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6331 on: November 24, 2020, 01:15:51 AM »
Monday, November 23.  TSLA hits a new All Time (intraday) High of $525.15 and closes at a record $521.49, up $31.88, or 6.51% — the first close above $500.

Why Tesla Stock Jumped 7% Early Today
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/23/why-tesla-stock-just-jumped-7/
Wedbush gave TSLA a mega-bull case of $1,000 by the end of next year.

TSLA: Wall St acknowledges Tesla’s ability to produce nearly 1M cars in 2021
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-1m-cars-per-year-2021-wall-st/
Morningstar suggested that Tesla may very well be on track to deliver 950,000 electric cars in 2021 and about 1.6 million vehicles in 2022 — and 23 million by the end of the decade.


—-  But:
Tesla Model S and Model Y miss out on Consumer Reports ‘recommended’ rating
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-model-y-loses-consumer-reports-recommended-rating/
Due to those screen failures in older Model S, and cosmetic issues with the early Model Y.  Model 3 is still recommended.  CR’s Tesla ratings have changed repeatedly over the years.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6332 on: November 24, 2020, 02:58:16 AM »
1) Tesla’s market cap is now almost half a trillion dollars ($494B).

——
2) Enjoy this video of FSD Beta tackling busy Las Vegas streets:

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6333 on: November 24, 2020, 10:00:46 AM »

Morningstar suggested that Tesla may very well be on track to deliver 950,000 electric cars in 2021 and about 1.6 million vehicles in 2022 — and 23 million by the end of the decade.

As usual behind the curve.

Fremont is already at 500k and Shanghai is targeting 550k.  So the analysts say Tesla will deliver 950k.  Berlin and Texas?  Not on the radar for people who's job is to look forward and make predictions.

Excellent.  However they do at least recognise that if Tesla can push out 1m vehicles in 2021, then the 20m target in 2030 is viable.

Energy? nada.  Also the fact that Tesla will be producing 20m cars with self driving software... Not a scooby.  Insurance?  Invisible.

There is a lot more than 1m vehicles in 2021 driving Tesla valuation.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6334 on: November 24, 2020, 03:06:20 PM »
...
There is a lot more than 1m vehicles in 2021 driving Tesla valuation.

Now saw “trillion” referred to as a “trilly” for the first time :) :

< Half trilly resistance passed in after hours >

This morning, pre-trading TSLA is +$22 @ $544.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6335 on: November 24, 2020, 03:10:41 PM »
—- FSD
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)11/23/20, 9:30 PM
FSD Beta 5 coming out in a few days. Improvement should be significant.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1331062680921235456

< Elon, you mentioned earlier of an end to end NN that took in camera feed as input and acceleration, braking, and steering as output. In the current FSD Beta it seems like the perception is using NNs but the driving controls and policy is still conventional C++ code.

Elon Musk:  We’re still far from simply video in, control out. The biggest game-changer, currently underway at Tesla, is 360 degree, high fps video for labeling, training & inference.

<< And that’s possible with current hardware?
Elon Musk:  Yes
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1331126834096992258

—— Giga Berlin:  batteries
Quote
Tobias Lindh (@tobilindh)11/24/20, 8:00 AM
Today @elonmusk announced that @Tesla will build the largest battery production plant in the world at #GigaBerlin with a capacity of 100-250 GWh.

welt.de/wirtschaft/art…  [ https://t.co/DTRURGiHyq ]
https://twitter.com/tobilindh/status/1331221028996063235

BMWi Bund (@BMWi_Bund) 11/24/20, 5:55 AM
.@elonmusk bei "European Conference on #Batteries" von @peteraltmaier #BMWi in @EU2020DE:
"We will turn #Gigafactory #Berlin into the world's largest battery production plant." Zur Konferenz: battery-conference.eu 


—- Feedback loop
Quote
stevenmarkryan (@stevenmarkryan)11/23/20, 4:27 PM
I wonder how much of $TSLA's revenue is a direct result of gains on $TSLA turning into product purchases. 
https://twitter.com/stevenmarkryan/status/1330986234949275648
[Replies from many who bought or will buy a Tesla with their TSLA stock gains — or who bought TSLA stock after buying a Tesla car.]
« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 03:16:09 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6336 on: November 24, 2020, 03:32:13 PM »
Quote
FSD Beta 5 coming out in a few days. Improvement should be significant  

Xpeng got Tesla’s stolen AP software (allegedly), but couldn’t figure out how to use it?

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-xpeng-lidar-lawsuit/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6337 on: November 25, 2020, 10:20:27 AM »
The Tesla solution is a software/hardware solution which are two halves of a coin.  That being said, Tesla had to do a complete re-write in order for FSD to come to beta.  They are also in the process of building a true "supercomputer" to label and train the AI.  The software for DoJo is entirely separate form the software of the in vehicle AI.

Just stealing someone's software at a point in time prior to the re-write means you inherit all the problems the re-write had to solve and have none of the knowledge and skills which forced and delivered the re-write.

Also the AP software stolen works on a computer nearly 30 times slower than HW3.  FSD cannot possibly run on that hardware.

If you are going to steal a solution, it is best to steal the release candidate.  Not the pre alpha (which is what AP is in comparison with FSD).

Also it's worth working out that you might need the very fastest computer delivered by Nvidia to run it.  That silicon, right now, consumes 500w to run and has cooling issues in a vehicle.  Nvidia has a release schedule for newer silicone which draws less power, but Tesla beat them to it by a wide margin.

Most people don't really understand just how far ahead Tesla is on many fronts.  As their competitors turn to other means to compete with them, that lead will become far more apparent.  Xpeng is, I would assume, only an early instance of this  phenomena.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6338 on: November 25, 2020, 04:50:13 PM »
Here’s a Kolodny-free version of this news:

Tesla issues two recalls covering 9,500 U.S. vehicles: NHTSA
Quote
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Tesla Inc is issuing two recalls covering about 9,500 vehicles for roof trim that may separate and bolts that may not have been properly tightened.

The larger recall covers 9,136 Model X cars from the 2016 model year, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said here on Wednesday. ... 
https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-recall/update-1-tesla-issues-two-recalls-covering-9500-us-vehicles-nhtsa-idUSL4N2IB2P5
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6339 on: November 26, 2020, 10:23:27 AM »
Quote
Tesla China to Invest in New Shanghai Factory for Supercharger Stall Production with 10K Annual Capacity

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-china-to-invest-new-factory-in-shanghai-for-supercharging-stall-production-annual-capacity-10k-units

Although it would appear that Tesla has already started this investment with later phases of the plant which are coming to completion early 2021.

Quote
At the moment, Tesla is importing chargers all over the world from the USA, but this situation will change in 2021. According to the document, Tesla plans to complete the construction of the new plant in February. The new manufacturing facility will be able to produce 10,000 chargers per year.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6340 on: November 26, 2020, 09:38:57 PM »
Quote
Giga Berlin / Gigafactory 4 (@gigafactory_4) 11/26/20, 3:05 PM
There will be an event next week together with @elonmusk in #Berlin according to this press release. He will receive the #springeraward2020 in person.

@axelspringer
Livestream link: youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg

lifepr.de/inaktiv/axel-s…
https://twitter.com/gigafactory_4/status/1332052924420280340

Presentation of the Axel Springer Award: "An Evening for Elon Musk - Mission to Mars" live from Berlin on December 1st    
(lifePR) (Berlin , 11/26/20) .
Quote
- Elon Musk will personally accept the Axel Springer Award 
- Laudation from Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn 
- Broadcast in livestream at https://go2.as/award 

On December 1, 2020, Elon Musk will be presented in the Ernst Cramer conference room of the Axel Springer in Berlin. Personally accept the Axel Springer Award. The media and technology company is honoring the inventive spirit and innovative strength with which Elon Musk has revolutionized several industries at the same time. The evening under the motto "An Evening for Elon Musk - Mission to Mars" is specially designed for the award winner and broadcast live on https://go2.as/award from 8 p.m. CET.

The “Mission to Mars” uses various multimedia elements to honor the work, vision and life of one of the most creative entrepreneurs and brilliant engineers of the digital age. The program also includes a business talk in which Mathias Döpfner, CEO of Axel Springer, talks to Elon Musk about what drives and inspires him. Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn will give the laudation for the award winner.

Photo and video material from the evening will be available after the event on www.axelspringer.com.
https://translate.google.com/translate?depth=1&nv=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=de&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.lifepr.de/inaktiv/axel-springer-ag/Verleihung-des-Axel-Springer-Awards-An-Evening-for-Elon-Musk-Mission-to-Mars-live-aus-Berlin-am-1-Dezember/boxid/825495


——  2020 11 24 Interview Elon Musk - Berlin GF4 Plans and more


And here’s SMR’s take on that interview:
Tesla Hatchback/Compact Car Coming Soon & New Battery Info
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f2k6jwdwe4
Quote
◆  In this video I react to, discuss and share my opinions on clips of Elon Musk on Tesla's European/Berlin plans, local battery cell production and Tesla's battery technology (including examples of Semi range up to 800km and then ultimately 1,000km), future products including a Tesla Compact Car and/or Tesla Compact Hatchback for Europe and more.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6341 on: November 27, 2020, 02:54:49 PM »
Given the continual rise of Tesla after the S&P500, it is worth looking back at the compensation package that musk agreed with Tesla in lieu of pay.

It is documented here.

https://www.businessinsider.fr/us/elon-musk-tesla-compensation-package-tranches-explainer

And I'm going to look in reverse order at the tables.

First, market cap.



Now at the time of agreement, in 2018, the Shorts laughed themselves silly.  Tesla was valued at $57bn.  So a target of 650bn was deemed totally ludicrous.

Today, at $544bn, they are no longer laughing.

I did a ROM on what it would take for Tesla to meet the top target of 650bn and came out with around $700.  Given that, today, Tesla is pre market at $579, it is a short hop to $700.

Even then, given the current market sentiment, it is only a week or two before Tesla hits 10 out of 12 on that list.

Granted it could crash, but it would take some pretty bad news, like a refusal to give approval for Giga Berlin and an order to take the factory down and make the site good.  This is not on the cards today.

Then there are the  operating goals.



So the second goal will be missed, very closely, by the most optimistic evaluation of deliveries in 2020.  At the average vehicle price for Q3 ($63k), lower than both Q2 and Q1, Tesla would have to deliver tens of thousands of vehicles over the 500k bracket to make the second operating target.

2021 is, however, a different story.  The run rates of Fremont, today and Shanghai (estimated), run to combine to 1.11m vehicles.

Of course we need to factor in price drops.  Average vehicle prices dropped by $4,700 from Q1 to Q3 this year.  So if we take that off the 63k value as an estimation of 2021 price drop, we get $58k.

Roughly 1.11m vehicles at circa $58k means $64bn in revenue.  Profits are expected to be higher with high volumes of Shanghai M3 (and MY??) being sold in Europe. This has already begun and we can expect it to continue.

So targets 2 and 3 crushed on the operating goals sheet.

However, this ignores both Berlin and Texas.  Both larger than shanghai but, at the same time, only in phase one and ramp up.  So let us say 6 months to deliver 100k vehicles each of the 500k target (assuming the Texas target is the same as the Berlin phase 1 target).

That gives me 1.31m.

That gives me $76bn and knocks off 4 of the 8 on the target list.

Taking this to the logical conclusion, let us say that peak output would be at an average vehicle price of $40k.  Then working backwards, Tesla needs to deliver 4.4m vehicles per year to meet the operating targets, with around $176bn in revenue.

So what does it take?  Another 3 factories?  I guess it depends on whether you believe the "leaks" or not.

We have been leaked that Shanghai's final output is sized at 1m per year.
Ditto Berlin leaked at 2m per year
Even if we assume Fremont stays static (poor assumption), Fremont will continue to produce 560k per year.

That leaves another 840k from Texas to hit the 8th and top target on that list.

So, I guess, the only question is, whether Tesla can hit 4.4m vehicles (assuming an average selling price of $40k), by 2028, or not.

Odds anyone?


Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2787
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 176
  • Likes Given: 56
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6342 on: November 27, 2020, 09:44:43 PM »

So, I guess, the only question is, whether Tesla can hit 4.4m vehicles (assuming an average selling price of $40k), by 2028, or not.

Odds anyone?

2028? What happened to


Of course I was using the 2020 average car price of $66k for this.  Let us drop that average car price to 55k.  We then get 1m in 2021, 1.4m in 2022 and 3.2m to hit the jackpot.

Now, unless I was missing the news, Shanghai is specced for 1m vehicles, Fremont for similar, Berlin is specced for 2m and Texas is unknown at this time.

Any bets on when Musk hits the jackpot?  Any bets after 2025?

I don't see much different from October when I said

So the capacity needed may well be not be in place until ~ the end of 2021. Ramp up of Shanghai Y will be well under way by then. So may not need much ramp up in Berlin and Texas and mid 2022 might be reasonable date for operating at capacity needed. Then it has to run at that capacity for a year to meet the targets. Further new factories/expansion in 2022/23 would help revenue but possibly hinder EBITDA targets but that seems ok as need 91% increase in revenue but only 46% increase in EBITDA.

If this happens and there is still lots of scope for further growth then final capitalisation target of $650bn (versus $397bn now) seems entirely likely.

So mid 2023 seems reasonably plausible date by which the final tranche targets needed are met.

My likely range would be a bit skewed so something like end of 2022 to end of 2024. (But who knows what might go wrong and cause it to take longer than expected.)

Last review only a month ago, no new results, higher market valuation. So I don't see need to rehash again so soon. 

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6343 on: November 27, 2020, 10:15:03 PM »
Agree, I forget stuff sometimes. Sorry for rehashing so soon.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6344 on: November 27, 2020, 10:36:24 PM »
I have been reviewing ARK Invest’s analysis from January 2020.  What seemed ridiculous then, now seems plausible, even conservative:

ARK Invest, Jan 2020.
Expected 2024 price (50% chance): $7,000 [= $1,400 post-split]. 
25% chance of $1,500 [$300]
25% chance of $15,000 [$3,000]

Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years
https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/tesla-price-target/

Quote
ARK Investment Management LLC increased its stake in shares of Tesla by 381.6% in the 3rd quarter. ARK Investment Management LLC now owns 3,430,778 shares of the electric vehicle producer’s stock valued at $1,471,838,000 after purchasing an additional 2,718,430 shares in the last quarter.
https://www.thestockobserver.com/2020/11/10/cmc-financial-group-makes-new-investment-in-tesla-inc-nasdaqtsla.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18309
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 832
  • Likes Given: 319
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6345 on: November 28, 2020, 01:58:58 AM »
Quote
Gary Black (@garyblack00) 11/27/20, 12:38 PM
S&P unveils its $TSLA inclusion plan Monday at 5:15 ET. I expect S&P to announce 2 tranches 50% each before mkt 12/14 and 12/21. S&P may also announce TSLA is joining S&P 100 and who TSLA is replacing in the 100 and 500. Indexers will start buying the 1.37% positions w/o 12/7.
~ Important: Since TSLA inclusion is effective before market 12/14 and 12/21, indexers should have full positions in place by Friday 12/11 and 12/18 at end of trading.
~ I hate to throw cold water on what’s been a great party, but the big risk is traders buying up $TSLA shares hoping to flip them to indexers when TSLA joins S&P on 12/21 buy too many. Indexers only need 120M shares - 16% of float - but TSLA is up 43% in 2 weeks. Caution advised.
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1332378376720560130

Quote
Alex (@alex_avoigt) 11/25/20, 2:02 PM
Large investment funds like Fidelity started to call $TSLA holders asking them to diversify ...
Guess why?!
Desperation sinks in
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1331674693515026432
Replies: some got a call. Nobody selling; Tesla is 50 to 100% of their portfolio.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2058
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 193
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6346 on: November 28, 2020, 02:07:56 PM »
Who woulda thunk it?  Tesla shareholders, holding shares through thick and thin, in the firm knowledge that Tesla has a long way to rise yet; don't want to sell.

It is not a hard one to work out.  Any manager of a large investment fund that couldn't see this coming should have a long hard look at their experience.  There was ample evidence that this was coming and plenty of time to buy as the shorts tried to sell the stock down.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3262
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 829
  • Likes Given: 204
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6347 on: November 28, 2020, 04:48:17 PM »
Elon Musk is a genius that time after time makes amazing things happen.

The fundamental fields Tesla and Elon Musk are making these breakthroughs ( Energy, transportation, AI) made it obvious many years ago that Tesla had the potential to be something else.

But damn, his misinformation on coronavirus was a big mindfuck.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.