Whilst I mostly agree with the sentiment, I have concerns and that is why I said that Tesla has still not outrun failure.
Whilst cherry picking articles like the Forbes one, which tried to equate lack of product in the market with lack of demand, back in November. It does highlight an emerging problem for Tesla.
Tesla Sales Have Fallen Off A Cliff In Europe’s “Greenest” Car Markets In 2020he final month of any quarter is always a good one for Tesla in its stuff-the-channel effort to make quarterly numbers, but this far in 2020, we have already had three “final months” and the numbers simply do not lie. For the first 11 months of 2020, Tesla’s registrations have fallen 78% in the Netherlands and 75% in Norway.
Which is cherry picking BS as we know because it included Oct and November even after having said that there would be no supply in Oct and Nov.
But, it does highlight a real problem. Tesla finished the year having sold 7,770 vehicles. The VW ID.3 sold 7,754. But the ID.3 entered the market in September, Tesla is for all year.
But looking at that again, Tesla sold out every month. It wasn't a case of the ID.3 cannibalising Tesla sales, Tesla had nothing to sell.
The stark reality, though, is that Tesla sold 15,683 Model 3 in 2019 and 7,770 in 2020.
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/19/tesla-model-3-surpasses-model-s-in-norways-all-time-sales-ranking-3-electric-cars-left-to-pass/https://insideevs.com/news/464304/norway-ev-sales-record-december-2020/So Tesla sold less than 50% Model3 in Norway in 2020 then it did in 2019, even though, in December 2020, Norway recorded record levels of EV sales. There are many reasons for this, Pandemic, Tesla delivery target focus and logistics.
But the reality is still the same. Because Tesla didn't have the supply, other manufacturers managed to get in with a competing product and sell more vehicles in the last 4 months of the year than Tesla did.
This leads to another situation. The incumbents are now aware of the danger. When Tesla was a company selling 0.3% of the vehicles in the world, valued at a point which meant that raising funds from share sales might endanger Musks loan's on his share capital, Tesla could be ignored.
But, now, Tesla is rapidly going to go from 0.6% to 1%, 5% and 10% of world vehicle sales. The company is now valued at such a high value that stock dilution, even if they wanted to raise $100bn, would not cripple the company and is building capacity faster than any other company in the world can cope with.
Tesla has gone from curiosity, in which the incumbents could anticipate buying out the tech when they went bust, to a bona fide THREAT.
This is just cars. But the cars have guaranteed that Tesla can now fund and stoke the energy business to such a degree that they would also be almost unassailable.
So now the 800lb gorilla's of the automotive world have a decision. Do they fold, compete, or go all out to crush Tesla before it gets to the inevitable result of being the largest automaker in the world?
This, then, wraps all the way back to Norway and the Netherlands.
VW has exposed the weak spot in Tesla.
If they get into markets that Tesla is not in (small compact), or into markets that Tesla is struggling to supply in today (Model3/Y in Europe and other countries outside of US/China), they stand a good chance of becoming the benchmark for brand awareness. Leaving the non advertising Tesla standing on the outside looking in.
Should the incumbents manage to influence the Brandenburg government to delay Tesla for even 6 more months, Tesla could be on the back foot in a real war for presence. Something Tesla has never had to do. Let us be honest here, Giga Berlin production targets are based on 24x7 manufacturing. It would not be difficult to engineer an environmental objection that reduces production times to 18x6. Tesla has grown almost totally unopposed. Bolt's, Leaf's and others do not count, they are not even in the same solar system of Tesla offerings. Having supply problems, especially now, would significantly impact Tesla.
So whilst the analysts are bigging up Tesla as this unstoppable juggernaut which will change the world of renewable energy (and to be fair there is ample evidence for this approach), there is a large dark shadow of the other 79.5 million vehicles manufactured in 2020 leaning over the shoulder of Tesla.
Two years from now with the compact model, Berlin and Texas in full swing and supply problems heading for the rear view mirror and it will be a different picture.
But what happens in the next 2 years is critical.
They haven't won yet.
Also we have no clue whether Biden will attempt to initiate a 6 week, or 2 month, lockdown to bring down US cases and deaths; shutting down Fremont for up to 2 months.
2021 may bring it's own pain.
