Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Tesla glory/failure  (Read 468118 times)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18826
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 845
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6550 on: January 11, 2021, 08:40:22 PM »
Quote
If Tesla does not pay investors, then the company is literally a ponzi scheme. it is illegal for a corporation to never intend to pay investors. 

Incorrect:  https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/011703.asp

And the growing ranks of Tesla millionaires are quite happy without dividends (and their tax consequences).

Elon Musk has made millionaires out of his most loyal fans
https://www.biznews.com/global-investing/2020/12/21/tesla-stocks

$TSLA: Tesla investor ditches 9-to-5 after massive stock surge
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-early-retirement-elon-musk-43-years-old/

Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog)1/7/21, 1:57 PM
holy fucking shit we’re all rich as fuck!!!
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1347256093265645568

Quote
K10 (@Kristennetten)1/7/21, 4:32 PM
Tesla! Holy Cow!
https://twitter.com/kristennetten/status/1347295050011578368
⬇️ Image below.

Youtube comment: “ So according to ARK, there is for me a 30% change of turning into a millionaire by holding my current shares at least until 2024.”
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

zizek

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6551 on: January 12, 2021, 02:13:05 AM »
Quote
If Tesla does not pay investors, then the company is literally a ponzi scheme. it is illegal for a corporation to never intend to pay investors. 

Incorrect:  https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/011703.asp

And the growing ranks of Tesla millionaires are quite happy without dividends (and their tax consequences).

Elon Musk has made millionaires out of his most loyal fans
https://www.biznews.com/global-investing/2020/12/21/tesla-stocks


The article is written for the perspective of the investor, not the company financials. Obviously an investor can profit from market price increases. But a stock can NOT be a growth stock in perpetuity. There are actual physical limits to how large a company can grow - you would think on a forum devoted to discussing those exact limits I wouldn't have to explain that.... But here I am.

blu_ice

  • New ice
  • Posts: 84
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6552 on: January 12, 2021, 08:28:29 AM »

If Tesla does not pay investors, then the company is literally a ponzi scheme. it is illegal for a corporation to never intend to pay investors. Although the SEC is completely toothless, I understand, but eventually investors will pull out if they realize this.

You are badly mistaken here.

Dividend isn't the only way for a company to create monetary value to its shareholders. Stock buyback is a common method, and many growing companies decide to invest all revenue back into the business as they see this is the most effective way to increase shareholder value.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is famous for never paying dividend. Buffett believes his investors cannot make better return elsewhere making it unoptimal for paying dividend which would be invested elsewhere with lower return.

I suppose Tesla investors are quite happy with Tesla's strategy so far.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3934
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6553 on: January 12, 2021, 11:47:48 AM »
Dividend isn't the only way for a company to create monetary value to its shareholders. Stock buyback is a common method, and many growing companies decide to invest all revenue back into the business as they see this is the most effective way to increase shareholder value.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is famous for never paying dividend. Buffett believes his investors cannot make better return elsewhere making it unoptimal for paying dividend which would be invested elsewhere with lower return.

I suppose Tesla investors are quite happy with Tesla's strategy so far.
Putting profit back into the business to grow the business is so last century - even if it is the best way of giving investors value.

Using profit (and why not borrowing as well) for share buybacks and increased dividends is so this century - and a good way to ensure the business in the end will die.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

blu_ice

  • New ice
  • Posts: 84
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6554 on: January 12, 2021, 12:32:10 PM »
Gero, you are not mistaken.

And if too much money is squeezed off the company, one can always cut costs.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6555 on: January 12, 2021, 01:17:16 PM »
When, not if, Tesla make 20m vehicles per year, their earnings will be ludicrous. 

global auto sales was 66m in 2019.  In order to adequately fight the complete collapse of our biosphere (at least I hope that's what we're trying to do here on the Arctic Sea Ice Forums), we should be dropping those numbers by a quarter. Or at the BARE MINIMUM stop the increase of car sales. So what, tesla would take up a third of all auto sales in the world?

Regardless of what we are trying to do with auto sales, reality is that industrialisation of the 3rd world  is driving growth.

Yes the sales peaked in 2017 at 80m, but they are still forecast to be 100m by 2030.  No matter what we want, that will not change.

Our goal is to ensure that as many as possible are EV and not emitting at the point of use.  Given that the goal of reducing is a lost cause.

If you want the vehicles to reduce, you need to reduce 3rd world population by 25% and keep them poor.  Not something I'm willing to contemplate.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6556 on: January 12, 2021, 01:23:05 PM »
The article is written for the perspective of the investor, not the company financials.

And that is the problem.  You refuse to accept that there are other ways of making money than companies making a profit and passing that profit onto users.

Just like a fiat currency, the value of what you invest in is worth exactly the perception of that worth and not one cent more.

I really seriously considered buying £2,000 worth of bitcoin in 2013 at $10 per coin.  The exchange rate at the time was circa $1.5 to the £.

That same 300 coins would, today, be worth $10.5m

Just how much profit does Bitcoin make and how does it pass it on to the investors?
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

zizek

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6557 on: January 12, 2021, 05:22:46 PM »

You are badly mistaken here.

Dividend isn't the only way for a company to create monetary value to its shareholders. Stock buyback is a common method, and many growing companies decide to invest all revenue back into the business as they see this is the most effective way to increase shareholder value.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is famous for never paying dividend. Buffett believes his investors cannot make better return elsewhere making it unoptimal for paying dividend which would be invested elsewhere with lower return.

I suppose Tesla investors are quite happy with Tesla's strategy so far.


If the company does not provide returns through dividends or buybacks, how else can you profit from an investment? It is impossible except through arbitrage.


Then someone should have explained that to Google investors.  Google has never paid a dividend and claims that it never will.

Google investors receive their profits from buybacks rather than dividend, that's why i mentioned buyback in my original posts.

If you are going to say I'm "Badly mistaken" at least read up a little further so you do not embarrass yourself.
For the sake of this discussion, buybacks are the same as dividends, they just take different character for investor profits (tax purposes etc.).

Dividends and buybacks follow the same stream:
Investor purchases company equity ----> Company creates income ----> Company pays outs earnings to investors through the form of [dividends or buybacks]

TSLA's stream is:
Investor purchases company equity ----> Investor makes profit through market price increase.

Two very different things.... One, the investor makes money because the company makes money. The other, the investor makes money through market speculation.


gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3934
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6558 on: January 12, 2021, 05:27:56 PM »
Can anyone tell us what is happening about the million mile battery? Lots of articles in early 2020.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

zizek

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6559 on: January 12, 2021, 05:30:34 PM »
The article is written for the perspective of the investor, not the company financials.

And that is the problem.  You refuse to accept that there are other ways of making money than companies making a profit and passing that profit onto users.

Just like a fiat currency, the value of what you invest in is worth exactly the perception of that worth and not one cent more.

I really seriously considered buying £2,000 worth of bitcoin in 2013 at $10 per coin.  The exchange rate at the time was circa $1.5 to the £.

That same 300 coins would, today, be worth $10.5m

Just how much profit does Bitcoin make and how does it pass it on to the investors?

You refuse to understand the inherent problems with speculation. You're example of bitcoin is a perfect example.  The value of bitcoin is purely speculative. If you made $10.5m with bitcoin, you made it purely off a speculative bubble - because that $10.5m did not come from value creation - you can not use that $10.5m for anything tangible except for drugs and child pornography. Your only choice is to sell that $10.5m to someone who thinks they can make $100m off that investment. And that investor must be able to sell that $100m to someone that thinks they can make $1billion. and so on and so forth. Get the point??
« Last Edit: January 12, 2021, 06:24:08 PM by zizek »

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6560 on: January 12, 2021, 06:13:38 PM »
It sort of went away. CATL were supposed to have one and speculation was rife that Tesla would announce one.  But they didn't.

However, if you consider a 500 mile range battery with 2,000 charge cycles, that makes 1m.  The cycles would be before serious degradation (>30%).  So with some degradation the larger Tesla batteries could make it.

It wouldn't take much on the cycle tweaking to make 1m miles.

A 340m pack with 60% usage would need 5,000 cycles to make 1m miles.  This is not impossible for, say, 40% to 100% power/usage/charging cycle.  It is not as if they have to make a 10x improvement in cycles to get there.

1m is evolutionary at current tech.  The most miles I have put on a car is 150k in a decade, 265k for my wife.  At one point my wife was putting 40k miles a year on the car.  It would still take 2.5 decades for her to hit 1m miles.

I know 1m miles sounds so good, but 400k would be more realistic to regular drivers and something which could be delivered at current, or less, cost.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

interstitial

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 882
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 268
  • Likes Given: 78
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6561 on: January 12, 2021, 07:24:16 PM »
It sort of went away. CATL were supposed to have one and speculation was rife that Tesla would announce one.  But they didn't.

However, if you consider a 500 mile range battery with 2,000 charge cycles, that makes 1m.  The cycles would be before serious degradation (>30%).  So with some degradation the larger Tesla batteries could make it.

It wouldn't take much on the cycle tweaking to make 1m miles.

A 340m pack with 60% usage would need 5,000 cycles to make 1m miles.  This is not impossible for, say, 40% to 100% power/usage/charging cycle.  It is not as if they have to make a 10x improvement in cycles to get there.

1m is evolutionary at current tech.  The most miles I have put on a car is 150k in a decade, 265k for my wife.  At one point my wife was putting 40k miles a year on the car.  It would still take 2.5 decades for her to hit 1m miles.

I know 1m miles sounds so good, but 400k would be more realistic to regular drivers and something which could be delivered at current, or less, cost.

it is true that 400k would be a long lived personel transport but  class 8 trucks last more like a million. doubeling vehicle life saves resouces. the marginal costs to make products last longer is usually very small. I dont mind driving an older vehicle. fighting the notion of new is better is important.

zizek

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6562 on: January 12, 2021, 07:28:09 PM »
After the great financial crisis you would think that people would at least to recognize the character of speculative bubbles, and hopefully even understand its destructive consequences. But this is not the case here. And I think this is a great example how societally progress, be it environmental, social, or economic, is incredibly difficult. Because even after the financial disaster of 2008, people here have been so thoroughly indoctrinated to accept the status quo drawn up by bankers and their cohort, that you can not even accept that speculation exists - even when it was unbelievably clear that the speculative, high-risk gambling ravaged the world economy in recent living memory.

How are we supposed to beat climate change when even the people who spend their free time discussing these problems on forums like these, blindly accept the status quo?

So much faith is being put into a single person to solve our environmental problems. I wish I didn't have to explain how misguided and dangerous this is. But I've tried for years, and this forum still fosters optimism for his vision. We will never know if this optimism will pay off until its too late. This fourm could have spent the last 5 years promoting proven ideas like public transport and minimalism while rejecting consumerism and speculation - but instead we settled on expensive cars that make fart noises to save the world. For now, I guess, we're riding the silicon valley oligarch train into the sunset. Most of you are old enough that you won't have to experience the horrors of climate change, and folks like Sig and Neil probably made a great profit from their TSLA stock to ease their retirement while the rest of the world slowly suffocates to death. I hope it was all worth it!

interstitial

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 882
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 268
  • Likes Given: 78
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6563 on: January 12, 2021, 07:37:08 PM »
What is the inharent problem with speculation and more imporrtantly how would you stop it?


Tesla makes money now besides speculation. if you cant see that you should not pont fingers at others claiming they dont understand the market.

zizek

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6564 on: January 12, 2021, 08:18:10 PM »
What is the inharent problem with speculation and more imporrtantly how would you stop it?

Speculation is a gambling play and provides no value to society. Of course investors, governments, and people need to take risks and expect a payoff - but that is different from pure speculation - where the former the yields are based off the success of a project, the latter the profits are from timing a market.

Speculation under a market economy model can be prevented through government policy and institutions. For example, the SEC requires corporations to release financial and corporate information when accessing the capital markets - this ensures that the market price of their equity accurately reflects the performance and health of the corporation. Without those checks, ponzi schemes and other similar fraudulent activity could easily dupe investors into buying shares into a company that will produce no profits and eventually destroy the investors money - this fraudulent activity has be accomplished recently such as bernie madoff's ponzi scheme or Elizabeth Holmes lies with Theranos. Further, the great financial crisis had many speculative bubbles that were built upon dishonesty and lies, most significantly were the mortgage backed securities which were sold on the market as investment grade even though they were junk. The value of TSLA's stock is based off the statements from Elon Musk - who has proven to be dishonest at his best but often completely fabricating a project.

If, for instance, TSLA continues to grow into the market giant as people predict - it would likely face the similar fate as the many corporations, especially banks, met during the the great recession. TSLA would become too big to fail. A market slow down would scare investors and their price would crash - TSLA would no longer have access to capital markets, their revenue would evaporate, and they would not be able to pay their creditors. The government would have to step in and bail them out. Massive amounts of tax dollars would have to be diverted from public spending (like health care and transit), to make sure that TSLA can continue to operate and their shareholders can remain rich as hell. It's what happened in 2008/2009 after all -and nothing has changed since.


How do you stop speculation? First, at a personal level, reject speculation and support proven investments (you can even buy municipal project bonds that are used to build green projects like transit). But, speculation is fundamental in our grossly unequal capitalist society. The whole system has to change. Reforms only delay the pain. As we have seen over and over and over and over again. Nobody learns.

WildFit

  • New ice
  • Posts: 29
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6565 on: January 12, 2021, 08:22:30 PM »
What is the inharent problem with speculation ....

Really ?

Go and look up the two main drivers for example for WW2, adding the terms 1918 + Versailles + 1929 + Weltwirtschaftkrise (laying the base for what came afterwards and what helped Adolf to cease powers and you have one of dozens of possibl answers.

Ask youself: Who pays the profits achieved by non-productiv speculators ?

- those who lose who in the end stage are (greedy) average people with who want to participate

- taxpayers

- workforce by doing their underpaid work and/or ulitimately losing their jobs

and the list could go on almost indefinietly.

Also see who benefits during this current economic catastrophy and how it's possible that stocks rise when world economy in fact is losing firm grounds?

Qui bono is always a good question to ask and speculations are only one of severy key rudders how accumulated wealth is steering the ship with slaves to profitable new lands.

If it were not you who's posts are usualy about the few i'm looking forward to read, I would not have reacted because usually it's in vain but perhaps the question was written a bit quickly, a shot from the hip, dunno but hope so

 ;)


Speculations as such are evil on that scale, even though the original purpose of hedging had kind of an "Insureance" character while looking at insurance companies they are evil as well, systematially quick in cashing and slow or resistent to compensate their customers and building palaces, pay their management criminal incentives and lobbying with the profit.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2021, 08:27:34 PM by WildFit »

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18826
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 845
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6566 on: January 12, 2021, 08:26:40 PM »
Rob Mauer’s latest “Tesla Daily”:
https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/news/tesla-ends-record-streak-despite-new-street-high-tsla-price-target

Just after 5:00 in the video, Rob discusses how the $12 billion Tesla raised in 2020 is one reason that analysts give for the stock price increase (and thus their higher targets).  The company can raise so much money, with so little stock dilution, that it is almost as though, as Credit Suisse writes, it “Implies Tesla’s cost of capital is negative.” 

“Simply put, Tesla is a new disruptive company that may or may not be dominant in the long-term, but that does not matter as long as it can keep funding outsized growth with almost no cost capital driving capacity expansion.”
— Credit Suisse

Rob notes it is interesting that Credit Suisse and Bank of America both increased their price targets, as they helped with Tesla’s previous capital raises, and it is common for banks to adjust their price targets the day before another raise is announced….


Rob’s discussion of RBC Capital’s “Simply put, we got Tesla wrong” price target change from Jan 7 is here:
Will Elon Musk Become the World's First Trillionaire? - Tesla Daily
https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/news/will-elon-musk-become-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-tesla

——
Quote
“We're trying to spend money at the fastest rate that we can possibly spend it and not waste it. That's our current plan.

And so it's quite hard to spend money without wasting it, or just — we're like really just trying to not waste too much of it, frankly. We will certainly waste some of it, but trying to waste, not to waste too much of it, this is very difficult. But otherwise, we just try to spend money as quickly as possible in a way that is sensible and yields more value than it costs.
— Elon Musk, 3Q 2020 earnings call

« Last Edit: January 12, 2021, 08:34:30 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

interstitial

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 882
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 268
  • Likes Given: 78
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6567 on: January 12, 2021, 09:07:25 PM »
What is the inharent problem with speculation ....

Really ?

Go and look up the two main drivers for example for WW2, adding the terms 1918 + Versailles + 1929 + Weltwirtschaftkrise (laying the base for what came afterwards and what helped Adolf to cease powers and you have one of dozens of possibl answers.

Ask youself: Who pays the profits achieved by non-productiv speculators ?

- those who lose who in the end stage are (greedy) average people with who want to participate

- taxpayers

- workforce by doing their underpaid work and/or ulitimately losing their jobs

and the list could go on almost indefinietly.

Also see who benefits during this current economic catastrophy and how it's possible that stocks rise when world economy in fact is losing firm grounds?

Qui bono is always a good question to ask and speculations are only one of severy key rudders how accumulated wealth is steering the ship with slaves to profitable new lands.

If it were not you who's posts are usualy about the few i'm looking forward to read, I would not have reacted because usually it's in vain but perhaps the question was written a bit quickly, a shot from the hip, dunno but hope so

 ;)


Speculations as such are evil on that scale, even though the original purpose of hedging had kind of an "Insureance" character while looking at insurance companies they are evil as well, systematially quick in cashing and slow or resistent to compensate their customers and building palaces, pay their management criminal incentives and lobbying with the profit.

...and more importantly how would you stop it?

interstitial

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 882
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 268
  • Likes Given: 78
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6568 on: January 12, 2021, 09:12:22 PM »
yes bubbles are bad but thier is a downside to most things.




You say speculation i say liquidity.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6569 on: January 12, 2021, 11:33:54 PM »
Forget markets, forget speculation, Tesla is expanding rapidly to help transition the world to a sustainable future.

As credit suisse put it, the speculation on Tesla shares makes  the cost of that expansion a negative debt on the balance sheet.

This is a good thing. Ask me if I want the markets to pay the government's of the world $1tn to "help transition to a sustainable future" or push the valuation of Tesla to $1tn to help them expand to 20m vehicles with virtually no cost and which I believe to be better value?

Tesla any day.

Ignore the shorts, this is not going to collapse, Tesla is not going bust and for fighting AGW, this is a good thing.

I don't care if Musk becomes a trillionaire, moves his money into bitcoin and moves to Mars, because by that time Tesla will have achieved its mission statement.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6570 on: January 12, 2021, 11:47:00 PM »
A point to note with Musks businesses and the way they take the market by surprise.

Let us take Spacex. Today it is valued at around $45bn with starlink as well as the launch business.

Today, at the current cadence, Spacex will take a decade to put the 36,000 starlink satellites up that they estimate for a full global Web system.

Now consider Starship. It carries 5 * the load of the Falcon 9 and is designed to launch multiple times without refit.

So, with three super heavy boosters flying twice a day and six starship flying once per day, the number of days required to launch those same 36,000 satellites comes down to 20.

When that reality strikes, valuation is going to rocket with it and Spacex is about to go IPO.

If anyone believes that Spacex will not learn from the Tesla experience for mass manufacturing of satellites, they are kidding themselves.

Now let us apply this lesson to FSD, AI and HW3.

All of the pieces are there on the table.  All you have to do is put them together in the correct shape.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6658
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2444
  • Likes Given: 2160
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6571 on: January 13, 2021, 05:43:42 AM »
Clearly there is rampant speculation in the financial markets, it has been going on for years fueled by low interest rates and money printing, but this year it has shifted to overdrive with the Fed hell-bent on making the rich richer. I believe Tesla's current valuation and especially its speed of change put it squarely in bubble territory, despite the well-intentioned arguments often made in this thread (remember bubbles can go on for a very long time, so shorting is a recipe for financial suicide).
On the other hand, this does not matter that much. As long as Tesla is funded properly (and they have been smart enough to raise $10B in the last few months, they probably should have yet another round) the short term fluctuation of the share price will not hurt it significantly. Yes investors might be hurt (and some will grow rich) but I'd rather see bubbles in electric cars and renewable energy rather than in banks and fossil fuel companies. In any case, I think too much discussion of the share price and the bubble or lack thereof and the negative sides of speculation is veering off-topic and should not receive so much focus.
Meanwhile Tesla is growing their physical business, building new manufacturing plants in Berlin and Texas and still expanding Shanghai. In addition it is growing the product line, including the soon-to-be-megahit CyberTruck and the long-awaited Semi, and developing massive features including the famed automated driving (which hopefully will succeed though it might not to the full extent hoped for). The end result of this will be cheaper and more efficient electric cars in large quantities, requiring less resources (and consequent environmental damage) to produce per car, and eventually starting to make a dent in the demand for oil.
The only thing that can screw up Tesla's business is an evaporation of the demand, either due to saturation of the potential buyers, the rise of serious competition, or a harsh recession in the potential buyers segment. All of these scenarios don't seem to be coming to fruition anytime soon - a large percentage of car buyers are interested in EVs, and the competition is almost nil, with most automakers efforts laughable.
Of course it would be best to move the globe to electric buses and bicycles, but meanwhile people are buying cars in the tens of millions so I prefer these cars to be electric. Will this solve AGW? No. But it will make it somewhat better, which is more than many other partial solutions can claim.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2021, 05:49:24 AM by oren »

zizek

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6572 on: January 13, 2021, 07:17:02 AM »
but I'd rather see bubbles in electric cars and renewable energy rather than in banks and fossil fuel companies. In any case, I think too much discussion of the share price and the bubble or lack thereof and the negative sides of speculation is veering off-topic and should not receive so much focus.

You make good points, but I went address this part.

Bubbles are almost always toxic to the sector and retail investor.
The great recession didn't see a bubble with banks (sort of), it was a bubble of their toxic assets - mainly mortgages. When the bubble burst it wasn't the bankers that were hurt, it was the mortgage holders. The underlying asset was destroyed and never recovered. Traditional home ownership was replaced with REIT and slumlords.

 If you wanted to hurt the fossil fuel industry, a bubble would be an effective weapon. The oil sands is a perfect example - a huge speculative inrush of investors money gambled on high oil prices, a risky move that didn't pay off, and years later all that money and investment evaporated. Now there is very little confidence in the oil sands and the only thing floating the industry is government subsidies. Had there been no price bubble the operators could have slowly built up their projects without the risk of default. Through economies of scale, innovation, and pipeline building, they could eventually fully developed the oil sands - but that's impossible now since nobody is willing to risk investing massive capital when oil prices are so volatile.

If TSLA hit the ridiculous 5 trillion market cap and the bubble bursts it would be devastating to the EV sector. The bankers and hedge funds would have pulled their money out first and bought their private islands and yachts. While retail investors and the regular people would be stuck with a stock that just lost 80% of the value. 4 trillion dollars would evaporate into thin air. retirement savings gone. Confidence in the EV sector would take a huge blow and investment would grind to a halt. That 4 trillion dollars would have been enough to decarbonise almost the entire world's electrical grid. But instead its gone never to be seen again.That's what happens when a bubble bursts.



Why is every criticism of TSLA I bring up Off-topic? TSLA has increased their stock price by more than 800% in the last year. It is the fast growing stock in the world. Elon Musk is now the richest man in the world because he built 300,000 cars last year. Just astounding that you think discussing speculation is off-topic. This place some time....
It's bad enough that my posts must be approved, and now every time I bring up an issue with TSLA someone is quick to police me to shut down the conversation.  Just rename this thread to "Sig and Neil's Musk appreciation station" already for christ sake.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6573 on: January 13, 2021, 10:51:06 AM »
My take too.  Texas is moving at the fastest pace any Gigafactory has seen so far in construction.  Shanghai is getting a new access road and is expanding into new ground as well as putting up pahse 3 building.

Cybertruck will deliver this year.  Possibly the low cost entry level vehicle from Shanghai too.  Berlin I have my reservations, work continues inside but has slowed radically on the outside.  I've had my concerns about Berlin from the outset and it may, yet, have continuing issues with getting operational and ramping up to volume.

Tesla continues to feel out sites for more expansion.  This is not surprising, Tesla are going to have installed capacity for around 2m vehicles by year end, even if they only produce 800k to 1m in 2021.  Tesla will need 10x that manufacturing capacity by 2029 if they want to hit their 2030 target.

It is taking around 2 years from inception to full volume.  To double and double again, is going to take at least 4 years and that work has not even begun.

Tesla has come further than anyone, other than Musk, dared think when they incorporated, in a faster time than anyone but Musk ever expected.

But it is still only the very first step on the ladder.  Much more work is required to hit the goals and vehicle sales are projected to hit 100m by 2030.  Tesla wants to build capacity for 20% of that.

I'm sure Tesla is expecting that to compete the rest of the market will step up and fill the remaining 80%.

With many countries holding their FF vehicle sales ban to 2040, I'm not sure that expectation will be met.

In the end, to achieve their stated aims, Tesla may need to take a larger slice of the market than even they had anticipated.

Nothing in this speaks of failure.  Glory?  Still too early to say.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

blu_ice

  • New ice
  • Posts: 84
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6574 on: January 13, 2021, 11:06:26 AM »
Competition?

I wouldn't rule out VW group yet. They have a decent BEV portfolio with ID.3 and ID.4, Audi E-Tron, Skoda Enyaq, Seat Mii, Porsche and so on. They are behind Tesla in software and electric drivetrain technology but they do know how to mass produce quality vehicles. Most importantly they sold very well in Q4 2020, overtaking Model3 in many European countries. In the end of the day it is sales, not reviews or "expert" opinion that counts. Something that Tesla has proven over the years.

The Koreans are also learning and it will be interesting to see how the new Ioniq will be received.

But then again, I suppose nobody expected Tesla to conquer the market without ever facing competition.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6575 on: January 13, 2021, 11:50:10 AM »
But then again, I suppose nobody expected Tesla to conquer the market without ever facing competition.

Everyone expected the market to compete to kill Tesla before it became a threat.

Nobody expected that the market would keep on pushing out compliance cars until after Tesla became a force to recon with.

I'm sure it will become a classic business case study at the business colleges in the future.

It is quite possible that the incumbents thought that there would be no need for other than compliance cars until legislation forced it.  i.e. that EV's were too expensive and uncompetitive to become a mass market car without governments forcing the cheap and cheerful fossil burning planet killing cars of the road.

Seems they were wrong.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

blu_ice

  • New ice
  • Posts: 84
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6576 on: January 13, 2021, 02:18:37 PM »
But then again, I suppose nobody expected Tesla to conquer the market without ever facing competition.

Everyone expected the market to compete to kill Tesla before it became a threat.

Nobody expected that the market would keep on pushing out compliance cars until after Tesla became a force to recon with.

I'm sure it will become a classic business case study at the business colleges in the future.

It is quite possible that the incumbents thought that there would be no need for other than compliance cars until legislation forced it.  i.e. that EV's were too expensive and uncompetitive to become a mass market car without governments forcing the cheap and cheerful fossil burning planet killing cars of the road.

Seems they were wrong.
That is true of course, and some legacy car makers are still in denial. Toyota is a prime example with their hybrid cars and hydrogen fantasies.

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2982
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1262
  • Likes Given: 1165
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6577 on: January 13, 2021, 04:19:01 PM »
Nobody expected that the market would keep on pushing out compliance cars until after Tesla became a force to recon with.
Maybe nobody should have payed more attention to what the old school car makers were doing?

It will be an interesting study but maybe it should focus at ´denial bubbles´. The most concrete action they undertook was lobbying for an easy to cheat emissions test. Decades wasted because they also counted themselves as to big to fail.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2889
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 191
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6578 on: January 14, 2021, 05:38:40 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55662657

Quote
Tesla has been asked to recall 158,000 Model S and Model X vehicles over an issue with failing touchscreens, which could increase the risk of crashes.

The problem involves the memory chips used in the displays of cars made between 2012 and 2018, which wear out, causing the screen to stop working.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration sent Tesla a formal letter requesting the recall.

It has until 27 January to respond.

Tesla has implemented some over-the-air updates to mitigate some of the issues - but the NHTSA said they were insufficient to address it concerns.

It said the failure of the media-console units (MCU) was "a defect related to motor-vehicle safety" because of a range of safety issues, including:

the loss of rear-view camera images and controls for heating, air conditioning and defrosting
the potential loss of audible chimes and alerts associated with indicators and the driver-assistance Autopilot feature
And it requested "Tesla initiate a recall to notify all owners, purchasers and dealers of the subject vehicles of this safety defect and provide a remedy"

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3934
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6579 on: January 14, 2021, 05:57:29 PM »

Quote
the memory chips

For the want of a chip...
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18826
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 845
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6580 on: January 14, 2021, 05:57:57 PM »
Model Y awarded 5-star safety rating in every category!
NHTSA’s assessment determined that Model Y has a rollover risk of 7.9%, the lowest of any SUV recorded to date by the organization.

Model Y Achieves 5-Star Overall Safety Rating from NHTSA
Quote
Since the launch of Model S in 2012, we have engineered every Tesla around the same advanced architecture that maximizes occupant safety. Today, Model Y, Tesla’s mid-size Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV), is the latest Tesla vehicle to earn a 5-star safety rating in every category from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

As part of their 2020 New Car Assessment Program, NHTSA tested Model Y Long Range All-Wheel Drive (AWD). We expect similar results for all Model Y variants, including our Performance AWD and single motor, rear-wheel drive variants in the future.
https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/model-y-achieves-5-star-overall-safety-rating-nhtsa?redirect=no

Quote
Tesla (@Tesla)1/13/21, 11:23 PM
Large crumple zones, rigid body structure & low center of gravity really make a difference
➡️ https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1349572805122113540
20 secs: testing clips. :o


——-
Panasonic President shares insights on Tesla’s 4680 battery cell production plans
Quote
“We have begun development of a new automotive battery, the 4680, for Tesla in the United States. The electrode structure is difficult because of its high capacity. The electrode structure is difficult because of its large capacity. We will make prototypes in Japan and establish a manufacturing method. High reliability is one of our strengths. There is no concern that Tesla will become a competitor (although Tesla is promoting in-house production of the battery),” Tsuga said. … 
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-cell-production-insights-panasonic-president/


—-
Calls LIDAR a fool’s errand. Improves radar sensors.
Tesla dials in on FSD improvements with ‘millimeter-wave radar sensor’ filing
January 14, 2021
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-millimeter-wave-radar-sensor/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18826
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 845
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6581 on: January 14, 2021, 06:24:34 PM »
Tesla Inc is on its way to becoming a $2 trillion company, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said on Tuesday.
Quote
What Happened: Ives told Oliver Renick of TD Ameritrade Network in an interview that the Elon Musk-led company was not an auto company but rather a disruptive technology company.

“In a year or two from now, we’re not just looking at one trillion for Tesla, but in a couple of years this could be a company that could start to approach 1.5 trillion - 2 trillion [market valuation].”

Ives said that between Tesla and Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO), the former had the lead in the growing Chinese market.
“It speaks to what [Elon Musk] has been able to accomplish — being the only U.S. manufacturer without a partner in China.”
“It’s a big enough ocean for more than one boat,” the analyst said — referencing the size of China’s EV market which can accommodate firms like Xpeng Inc (NYSE: XPEV), Nio, and others.

Ives termed Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 factor as “the key to success” and a “lynchpin.” …
https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/01/19137840/tesla-reaching-2t-valuation-in-2-years-heres-what-inspires-daniel-ives-optimistic-t

—- The “reports” behind the $25k MIC Tesla rumor
Tesla To Launch $25,000 EV Sedan In China By 2022: Report
Quote
Tesla Inc  is making its vehicles more price competitive to gain a bigger chunk of the Chinese EV market, if reports are to be believed.
What Happened: Tesla is planning to produce a third EV model from the Shanghai Giga in 2022, with the price point estimated between 160,000 yuan ($24,700) and 200,000 yuan ($31,000), local Chinese media reported. The new car project was initiated in September 2020 and product validation is expected to be completed in March, the report said.

Tesla currently sells Model 3 vehicles in China and it has begun accepting orders for made-in-China Model Y vehicles.
The new sedan, according to the report, is likely to be a two-seater with a body chassis similar to Model 3.
Tesla's cheapest car is the China-made Model 3, which is armed with a lithium iron phosphate battery. It's priced around 249,900 yuan ($38,500). …
https://m.benzinga.com/article/19079042

—-
Tesla Model Y Will 'Disrupt' The Chinese Auto Market — Here's Why
Quote
Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) Model Y electric vehicle will help boost sales and emerge as a major disrupter of that country’s auto market in 2021, analysts are estimating, as reported by Reuters on Monday.

What Happened: China — the world’s largest car market — saw the launch of the locally made Model Y sports utility vehicles this month for a price of RMB 339,900 ($52,376), which is less than a tenth of gasoline-powered luxury cars with a similar market positioning made by Daimler AG, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, and Volkswagen AG, according to Reuters.

“The pricing will disrupt the conventional premium cars market and shatter the traditional belief that the cost of an electric vehicle (EV) should be higher,” Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) told Reuters.
Tesla’s Model 3 sedan, which is made in Shanghai, outsold similarly positioned cars made by the luxury automakers in November, as per CPCA data.

The [NIO] et7 pricing being "quite competitive with the Model S" of Tesla is a "statement of aspiration" on the automaker's part, Russo told CNBC on Monday.
https://m.benzinga.com/article/19114686

——- India
Tesla Is Preparing for a Robust Entry into India, a Multi-Billion Dollar Market
Quote
Tesla is in talks with officials from five states in India to open stores, an office, an R&D center, and possibly a factory for production. At the moment, the company is choosing a place where it will start its official activities in the country. …
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/india-is-a-multi-million-market-for-tesla

—- Giga Berlin
Quote
@GF4Tesla .build #GigaBerlin. (@Gf4Tesla) 1/14/21, 2:40 AM ]
#GigaBerlin
Pictures from January 13 / 2021
Construction work on the entire GigaBerlin.
' Body in White ' (BiW )
' General Assembly ' ( GA ) / ' Seat production ' ( SE )
and also in the ' Casting ' ( CA ) the construction work continues.
Credit: @RalfThomas
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1349622506613825536
4 photos at the link:: buildings under construction
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18826
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 845
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6582 on: January 14, 2021, 07:56:42 PM »
Re the chip:
IIRC, the software update was to assure the Tesla Mothership knew the status of each car’s chip, and provided for an alert to the owner and to Tesla when end-of-life was approaching, and automatically scheduled a replacement. (Tesla software has other proactive service alerts that work the same way.)  Tesla used that data to estimate how many, and when, chip replacements would be needed over the next few years.  Perhaps NHTSA is asking for a brute force approach because, in the past, other automakers have been unable to perform this kind of individualized remedy.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2889
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 191
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6583 on: January 14, 2021, 08:15:55 PM »
Quote
Part of the storage is used every time the vehicle is started.

And when capacity is reached, the MCU will fail.

All MCUs fitted with this chip will eventually stop working, with most having a lifespan of 10 years.

Tesla has implemented some over-the-air updates to mitigate some of the issues - but the NHTSA said they were insufficient to address it concerns.

So could Tesla do an ota update to introduce a routine to delete or better summarise some of the older data when it reaches 95% full?

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6584 on: January 14, 2021, 08:28:55 PM »
So could Tesla do an ota update to introduce a routine to delete or better summarise some of the older data when it reaches 95% full?

I doubt it is the fact that it is full.  flash memory has a write-erase-write life just like a li battery has charge cycles.  Some, like the Samsung chips, can be as low as 1,500 cycles.  Normally TLC NAND is 3,000 to 5,000 cycles.  MLC NAND is around 10,000 cycles and SLC NAND can be as high as 100,000 cycles.  SLC  is business grade and very expensive in relative terms.

The problem is if you write and erase data constantly on the chips and they are very small, they won't last long.

This is seen in SSD drives where they tell you absolutely do not try to defrag them.  All you do is kill cells by exceeding their write-erase cycle.

A simple method of fixing this kind of issue is to double the size of the chip.  Halving the number of erases and doubling lifetime.

You can, of course, update the software to reduce the number of writes.  Which is what I assume Tesla did.

Tesla just needs to bite the bullet, replace the chips and move on.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18826
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 845
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6585 on: January 15, 2021, 04:31:41 PM »
Quote
Tesla just needs to bite the bullet, replace the chips and move on.

It seems Tesla agrees the chips must be replaced.  But why induce stress on owners and service centers in an effort to get every car done right away via recall notifications... if Tesla can schedule replacements in a controlled manner over several years?  If they can show that there is a 99.9xxx percent chance that the chip will not fail before they get to it, I don’t see how that is a less safe option than wasting the money and effort to recall every affected car and just hoping the most urgently needed cases respond quickly.  Also, some cars will be seen for other service before the chip’s end of life, so the chip replacement can be done efficiently in the same visit, eliminating extra hassles for owners and Tesla.  Is NHTSA afraid that if they make an exception for computer-on-wheels Teslas, the OEM automakers will demand the same treatment?
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18826
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 845
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6586 on: January 15, 2021, 04:42:36 PM »
Tesla Sells Out Of Q1 Supply Of Model Y In China Just Days After Opening Order Page: Report
Jan 6
Quote
At the start of 2021, Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) opened up the order page for the Model Y in China. Tesla has been working to expand Gigafactory Shanghai to mass-produce the Model Y for sale in China and export to neighboring areas including Australia and parts of Europe.

Now a report from Electrek shows Tesla has already received enough orders to exhaust its supply of the popular vehicle for the first three months of 2021.

The order page has only been live for about six days, but the delivery estimate on Tesla's site is showing that orders will not be filled until the second quarter of 2021. The performance version is being quoted as available in the third quarter of the year.

A study covered Tuesday said Tesla may already be producing 3,000 Model Ys per week at Gigafactory Shanghai. If accurate, that would mean Tesla received over 36,000 Model Y orders in six days, or 6,000 orders per day, double the amount of Model Y the company is currently able to produce.
https://m.benzinga.com/article/19042173

—-
Last Year's Massive Rally Was Just the Beginning for Tesla Stock
https://investorplace.com/2021/01/massive-rally-beginning-for-tesla-stock/

—-
Elon Musk’s Rise to Riches: How quickly the Tesla CEO Climbed the Wealth List
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-rise-to-riches-data/

;)
“Elon Musk is now worth $208 billion.
You want to know how he did it? He skipped 34.67 billion lattes. It's that easy.”
https://twitter.com/stephenpunwasi/status/1348329165502746626
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

zizek

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6587 on: January 15, 2021, 05:47:19 PM »
Quote
Tesla just needs to bite the bullet, replace the chips and move on.

It seems Tesla agrees the chips must be replaced.  But why induce stress on owners and service centers in an effort to get every car done right away via recall notifications... if Tesla can schedule replacements in a controlled manner over several years?  If they can show that there is a 99.9xxx percent chance that the chip will not fail before they get to it, I don’t see how that is a less safe option than wasting the money and effort to recall every affected car and just hoping the most urgently needed cases respond quickly.  Also, some cars will be seen for other service before the chip’s end of life, so the chip replacement can be done efficiently in the same visit, eliminating extra hassles for owners and Tesla.  Is NHTSA afraid that if they make an exception for computer-on-wheels Teslas, the OEM automakers will demand the same treatment?

are you serious? Why should the NHTSA treat automakers differently for safety recalls? Why should we create dangerous new precedents? Would you be okay if Ford had an issue where every control and gauge stopped working on their cars - and then said "okay, ours engineers created a model and we claim that 1 in 1000 people would be affected if we slowly roll out the recall". "We had to do this because our service centers are overloaded, and no, we are not going to put more money into service centers". "we learned all about prioritizing profits over safety during our pinto years, thank you very much".

How much TSLA stock do you own by the way?

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6588 on: January 15, 2021, 06:56:33 PM »
Quote
Tesla just needs to bite the bullet, replace the chips and move on.

It seems Tesla agrees the chips must be replaced.  But why induce stress on owners and service centers in an effort to get every car done right away via recall notifications... if Tesla can schedule replacements in a controlled manner over several years?  If they can show that there is a 99.9xxx percent chance that the chip will not fail before they get to it, I don’t see how that is a less safe option than wasting the money and effort to recall every affected car and just hoping the most urgently needed cases respond quickly.  Also, some cars will be seen for other service before the chip’s end of life, so the chip replacement can be done efficiently in the same visit, eliminating extra hassles for owners and Tesla.  Is NHTSA afraid that if they make an exception for computer-on-wheels Teslas, the OEM automakers will demand the same treatment?

Not really sig.  Understand your thinking but Tesla won't be able to be 99.99xxx% sure that the failure will not happen before they get to it.

This is because the MTBF on silicone of this kind has around a 30% variance.  That 30% is enough to ensure that too many vehicles will see the problem before they get to it.

It is a genuine risk and Tesla just needs to set up a program to rectify it, just like any other Auto manufacturer would.

This is a time when Tesla needs to treat it like an automotive safety problem and not a software glitch problem.

In the long run it will be more positive for them if they do.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2889
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 191
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6589 on: January 15, 2021, 08:04:23 PM »

This is because the MTBF on silicone of this kind has around a 30% variance.  That 30% is enough to ensure that too many vehicles will see the problem before they get to it.


This issue seems to be that it stops working when memory is full. What has MTBF on silicone to do with this? The article used the term 'wears out' which seems a bit odd for this so maybe I am not fully understanding.

Some people may start their Tesla more frequently than others so their chip will fill up more quickly than the normal expected 10 year life.

If they have uploaded an update so they can see how full the memory on this chip in each car is, this would help a lot with prioritisation of most urgent cases. If Tesla can make such a case then perhaps the regulator should listen to case made by Tesla? However I don't know the situation and maybe Tesla can't make such a case to the satisfaction of regulator, which seems the situation so far. So I guess we wait and see what happens.


NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2251
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6590 on: January 15, 2021, 11:19:30 PM »
MTBF is the mean time between failure, or in flash terms, the mean time before a cell expires the number of cycles and winds up locked to the last value entered.

In terms of Flash, this is termed "wearing out".

You can always delete full memory with a software update, you can't rectify a locked memory location, it is dead and can't be used other than to read.  Write is no longer possible.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18826
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 845
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6591 on: January 16, 2021, 02:27:44 PM »
Giga Berlin:  Agreement reached
Quote
Giga Berlin / Gigafactory 4 (@gigafactory_4)1/16/21, 5:28 AM 
According to @berlinerzeitung the 100 Million payment was deposited by #Tesla yesterday late in the evening.
berliner-zeitung.de/news/tesla-hat…  [ https://t.co/X3nEo7nII0 ]
https://twitter.com/gigafactory_4/status/1350389455199350784
⬇️ English translation: [below]  translate.google.com/translate?sl=d…

@truth_tesla:
Just wondering, the article says start of production is set for July.
Wondering what the source of that is, has this date been mentioned by Tesla or in any of the permits before?
@RaymathD:
Contractor building the factory say they are on schedule for july
@truth_tesla:
If this July date was communicated earlier then I'd expect this date to slip to August-ish, given the permitting delay - with first production units in Q3-Q4.
@RaymathD
It was communicated last week, the contractor basically said they are on track for july opening

< Slightly off-topic: If anyone wants to download that sign and print it, go ahead, it's free: teamelon.com/artwork/tesla-…  [ https://t.co/qBvq8WKiiT ]

Gigafactory Berlin
Tesla has deposited security deposit: construction work continues
16.1.2021 - 11:14 am
From July 2021, around 500,000 vehicles per year are expected to roll off the production line in the factory in Grünheide.
Quote
The deadline for the required security deposit for US electric car manufacturer Tesla had just been extended as a precaution. Now the Tesla management reached an agreement between Tesla Brandenburg and the State Office for the Environment on Friday evening and deposited the requested amount, the Ministry of Environment announced on Saturday.

"The necessary security is provided by the provision of a letter of comfort by a German GmbH, combined with a cash deposit of 100 million euros," said the Ministry of the Environment. Accordingly, the money was deposited between 11 p.m. and midnight. This means that no construction stop has to be imposed.

The factory has not yet received any environmental approval. Tesla is therefore building through early approvals. The 100 million euros are necessary as security for possible dismantling costs. In December, the company had not deposited the performance by the December 17 deadline. Tesla then got a longer deadline until January 15th. Production should start in July.
https://t.co/0zmlq0yXvV

Full approval is expected soon.

Quote
@GF4Tesla.build #GigaBerlin. (@Gf4Tesla)1/15/21, 12:13 PM
#GigaBerlin
January 15 / 2021
Snowfall over GIGABERLIN
but nothing can stop the construction work.
( or my drone ) ; - )
YT ➡️youtu.be/rHCEJmbFwFI 
➡️ https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1350128869894991877
2 min vid at the link
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

zizek

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6592 on: January 17, 2021, 08:59:53 AM »
Why has Tesla lowered the price of their cars numerous times if the market is supply constrained? Neil et al.? Can you please answer this simple question.......

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2982
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1262
  • Likes Given: 1165
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6593 on: January 17, 2021, 05:16:49 PM »
Please do.  :)

BTW i deleted the same question from the general EV thread because it is Tesla specific.
I can think of some reasons but others can come up with more.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1849
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 399
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6594 on: January 17, 2021, 06:07:10 PM »
Why has Tesla lowered the price of their cars numerous times if the market is supply constrained? Neil et al.? Can you please answer this simple question.......

There are a few reasons why a producer might sell at a price below that which maximizes profit.

The most common reason is probably to maintain market share.

If you can get a given Tesla for $40,000 but have to wait 3 months, or get a comparable non-Tesla for $80k, most people will wait the 3 months.

Such pricing can also be used to drive competitors out of business, if one has deep pockets.  That's supposed to be illegal, of course.

Such less-profitable pricing is, in effect, an investment in future profits.

interstitial

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 882
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 268
  • Likes Given: 78
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6595 on: January 17, 2021, 08:20:57 PM »
Such pricing can also be used to drive competitors out of business, if one has deep pockets.  That's supposed to be illegal, of course.

Such less-profitable pricing is, in effect, an investment in future profits.
I think It is only illegal if you sell below cost. Either way its hard to prove. The US at least has either gutted or just chooses not to enforce anti competitive laws.

Tesla sales are supply constrained on a global level but not in some markets. In the US for example you can get a Tesla fairly quickly after you order it. I have no doubt they miss sales because you can't always drive one home today. They also do not advertise yet. Advertising will help push demand higher as well. In many European markets they get deliveries once a quarter and spend most of the time making lists of who wants a car. Waiting lists even short ones indicate supply constraint. They are still pushing in to other markets globally. They just added Israel.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2889
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 191
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6596 on: January 17, 2021, 09:23:54 PM »
Why has Tesla lowered the price of their cars numerous times if the market is supply constrained? Neil et al.? Can you please answer this simple question.......

There are a few reasons why a producer might sell at a price below that which maximizes profit.

The most common reason is probably to maintain market share.

If you can get a given Tesla for $40,000 but have to wait 3 months, or get a comparable non-Tesla for $80k, most people will wait the 3 months.

Such pricing can also be used to drive competitors out of business, if one has deep pockets.  That's supposed to be illegal, of course.

Such less-profitable pricing is, in effect, an investment in future profits.

If you are producing as many as you can and selling them all, then "maintain market share" doesn't make sense. They have same market share by volume and lower market share by $.

Describing what Tesla is doing as anti-competitive and illegal is remarkably anti-Tesla.

Giving up profits now for a larger future market makes more sense. And how is it giving them a larger market share in future? It is because they are being nice not nasty - building up a reputation for cutting prices when they can rather than when they need to. i.e They cut prices when their costs fall so you always get a Tesla at a reasonable price given production costs.

Of course Tesla and business haters will prefer to see it as some anticompetitive or monopolistic tactic. People who want to buy a Tesla will see it as good news.

zizek

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6597 on: January 17, 2021, 09:55:36 PM »
Why has Tesla lowered the price of their cars numerous times if the market is supply constrained? Neil et al.? Can you please answer this simple question.......

There are a few reasons why a producer might sell at a price below that which maximizes profit.

The most common reason is probably to maintain market share.

If you can get a given Tesla for $40,000 but have to wait 3 months, or get a comparable non-Tesla for $80k, most people will wait the 3 months.

Such pricing can also be used to drive competitors out of business, if one has deep pockets.  That's supposed to be illegal, of course.

Such less-profitable pricing is, in effect, an investment in future profits.

Like Crandles pointed out, the market share remains the same either way. And market share isn't always a good thing when you have to deal with warranty and service network liabilities.

Also, other carmakers are experience long wait times for their EV's as well. This chart indicates Tesla ranks high for delivery speed.
https://insideevs.com/features/408810/wait-to-buy-ev-uk/
We're seeing people paying more and waiting longer for other car manufacturer's EVs. Why is that the case?

zizek

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6598 on: January 17, 2021, 10:02:54 PM »
Such pricing can also be used to drive competitors out of business, if one has deep pockets.  That's supposed to be illegal, of course.

Such less-profitable pricing is, in effect, an investment in future profits.
I think It is only illegal if you sell below cost. Either way its hard to prove. The US at least has either gutted or just chooses not to enforce anti competitive laws.

Tesla sales are supply constrained on a global level but not in some markets. In the US for example you can get a Tesla fairly quickly after you order it. I have no doubt they miss sales because you can't always drive one home today. They also do not advertise yet. Advertising will help push demand higher as well. In many European markets they get deliveries once a quarter and spend most of the time making lists of who wants a car. Waiting lists even short ones indicate supply constraint. They are still pushing in to other markets globally. They just added Israel.
The American market is the second largest auto market in the word (China is #1). 17,175,893 cars sold last year, next in line is Japan with 5,271,985.  If you're having demand problems in your own market, even after you have lowered prices, then maybe you should start raising eyebrows.

Tesla 100% advertises. It's ludicrous to suggest otherwise. They send one of their cars in space for christ sake, not sure how expensive publicity stunts aren't considered advertising....  And their referral program was responsible for the 50 EV blogs basically fellating him for the last 5 years. Just because they don't have ad spots on the superbowl doesn't mean they don't advertise.

zizek

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6599 on: January 17, 2021, 10:14:11 PM »
Why has Tesla lowered the price of their cars numerous times if the market is supply constrained? Neil et al.? Can you please answer this simple question.......

There are a few reasons why a producer might sell at a price below that which maximizes profit.

The most common reason is probably to maintain market share.

If you can get a given Tesla for $40,000 but have to wait 3 months, or get a comparable non-Tesla for $80k, most people will wait the 3 months.

Such pricing can also be used to drive competitors out of business, if one has deep pockets.  That's supposed to be illegal, of course.

Such less-profitable pricing is, in effect, an investment in future profits.

If you are producing as many as you can and selling them all, then "maintain market share" doesn't make sense. They have same market share by volume and lower market share by $.

Describing what Tesla is doing as anti-competitive and illegal is remarkably anti-Tesla.

Giving up profits now for a larger future market makes more sense. And how is it giving them a larger market share in future? It is because they are being nice not nasty - building up a reputation for cutting prices when they can rather than when they need to. i.e They cut prices when their costs fall so you always get a Tesla at a reasonable price given production costs.

Of course Tesla and business haters will prefer to see it as some anticompetitive or monopolistic tactic. People who want to buy a Tesla will see it as good news.

Yeah, I'm not sure I agree with them being "nice" to their customers by cutting prices when they have huge problems with reliability. They could have used their extra profits to expand service networks, increase reliability, and reduce wait times. Now, Tesla's customers are dealing with headaches (and headaches for employees who were laid off last year):
https://thenextweb.com/shift/2020/06/25/study-tesla-likely-us-worst-carmaker-reliability-build-quality-paint-battery/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/edgarsten/2020/11/19/tesla-reliability-sinks-in-consumer-reports-annual-survey/?sh=367910735fbb
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/19-day-wait-for-a-service-center-appointment.209633/
https://insideevs.com/news/463589/tesla-service-centers-preventing-delivery-refusals/

I'm sure the Tesla owner (who isn't a raging fanboy) who bought an expensive Tesla in 2017 and had to deal with servicing nightmare over the years, while watching as Musk decreased the car's price by tens of thousands over the years really helped build a good reputation.

Honestly, the nice argument is my favourite exercise of mental gymnastics to convince oneself that Tesla is in fact not dealing with a demand problem... Tesla is just reducing prices because he's so nice! He hates money! sorry for the layoffs and awful working conditions for my employees - being nice is just for my customers.