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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6600 on: January 17, 2021, 11:45:00 PM »
Why has Tesla lowered the price of their cars numerous times if the market is supply constrained? Neil et al.? Can you please answer this simple question.......

You don't want to hear the answer because you have already made your mind up.

However for the others.

Had everyone been listening, from the beginning, the mission statement for Tesla is to fight global warming by driving the transition from FF vehicles to EV.

Their next key objective is to use the profits from the expensive vehicles to facilitate the production of newer and cheaper vehicles.

Tesla does not have a mission statement to use their strong position in the market to gut customers and make profits for their shareholders, that was Mercedes.

In fact Tesla has never promised to pay investors back with anything other than building more EV's.

So Tesla improves production and economies of scale and sourcing and they cut costs. Tesla starts manufacturing in China and starts producing margins well over 30% and it cuts costs.

Tesla has a demand incredibly high in China and it cuts costs to keep margins at a lower level.

Why? Because it forces the competition to slim down, build up and sell for less which increases EV take up world wide.

It is all about the mission statement.  Tesla makes a profit, Tesla cuts costs and makes more profit.

Of course this does not prove beyond an unreasonable doubt.  But then I don't care what people with an unreasonable doubt think.
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6601 on: January 18, 2021, 01:18:13 AM »
Okay, just so we're clear here, the reason Musk reduced prices had nothing to do with issues of demand at the original price, but rather Musk sacrificed profits for the greater good of fighting climate change. Musk, the richest man in the world, who flies around in his two private jets, and had owned about $100 million dollars worth of mansions, was willing to risk TSLA going bankrupt when he lowered prices (even though you claim there is demand at higher prices) to force other automakers to be more competitive.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6602 on: January 18, 2021, 04:08:47 AM »
In my humble opinion, Tesla cuts prices because it can, but also because the demand may shrink if prices are maintained at a high level. They are supply constrained because they set the right price to be supply constrained, and the big success of Tesla is being able to sell at this right price and still make a profit, unlike the auto incumbents who were stupid enough to neglect this field and focus on compliance cars and regulatory schmoozing, and hence are far behind in EV design. And Tesla's speed of production and design improvements and efficiencies means they can keep up with further reducing prices as needed to maintain said demand.
Tesla often starts with high prices in new markets and then lowers them progressively, capturing the high end market of those who just couldn't wait any longer to set their hands on a Tesla.
However anyone might spin it, obviously if Tesla could charge $10k more for each car and still be assured of endless demand, they would not cut. That is just business 101.

BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6603 on: January 18, 2021, 10:42:47 AM »
I think Tesla are setting a bar for the future.  effectively saying to it's competitors 'catch me if you can'.

The purpose is twofold,
It makes it harder for competitors to enter the market as they struggle to compete on price point.
It forces them to lower prices, and be less profitable\ unprofitable

These two factors allow Tesla to continue building capacity to fulfill the market demand, whilst making it harder for existing FF producers to switch to EVs.  They are effectively suppressing competition whilst cornering the market.  There is no reason to keep prices higher in order to pay shareholders, it would just increase the space in which it's competitors could profitably enter the market.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6604 on: January 18, 2021, 10:51:00 AM »
zizek
Quote
had to deal with servicing nightmare over the years,
We need a better class of troll
You do not need to service a Tesla .Any one can top up wiper fluid and rotate  tyre all the serving a Tesla needs for many tens of thousands of kms.
You  mean  repairs not servicing.
FWIW The jd powers results your links are referencing are well known to  be pay to play nonsense .
http://www.allwaysdrive.com/home//jd-powers-dependability-study#:~:text=Finally%2C%20J.D.%20Power%20Awards%20are,right%20to%20say%20they%20did.

As to deprecation.
Even with Tesla steadily lowering prices and increasing performance on its cars over time they still hold value well on the second hand market
Quote
Hybrid and electric cars typically don't hold their value, as electric car technology changes more quickly than iPhones apps. Tesla, however, bucks this trend in the luxury segment, and does very well among its peers. For the 5-year and 7-year periods, Tesla has ranked 2nd behind Lexus. While we just have long-term figures for the Model S, Tesla's success bodes well for current (no pun intended) and future Tesla models. We'll be interested to see how other Tesla models hold up once they've been in marketplace for a longer period of time.
https://caredge.com/
 

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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6605 on: January 18, 2021, 12:52:45 PM »
These two factors allow Tesla to continue building capacity to fulfill the market demand, whilst making it harder for existing FF producers to switch to EVs.

FF producers have had two decades to get on board, spend the money, take the lead and make it impossible for Tesla to become the company it is today.

FF producers did not do so.

As for saying that Tesla is making it impossible for other manufacturers to enter the EV market?  If you recall, from around 2012 onwards, the pundits have been saying that it was impossible for Tesla to enter the market as

a) there was no market fort their product
b) the incumbents could crush them by lifting their little finger and outproducing them.

Reality has been very different.  Tesla had to fight like hell to get to where it is today and Tesla nearly failed.  That was in a market where EV demand didn't exist at the large scale, charging infrastructure was almost invisible and EV's were pretty much considered a curiosity.

New entrants, today, compete in a mature market where the charging infra is largely solved, where demand is high and the FF producers are slowly coming to realise that change is here, not just round the corner and their very survival is at stake.

Any new EV entrant, today, has to face those realities.  Tesla cannot keep prices high, to damage their own chances, in order to give Nio or Lucent a leg up.

VW, having realised the danger they are in, has already gone all in and is producing vehicles which undercut Tesla.  FCA, PSA, Kia and others are following suit very rapidly.  Granted that their offerings are a poor reflection of Tesla vehicles, but a Tesla is out of the reach of at least 60% of the market.

Hence Tesla keeps dropping prices and will introduce a new vehicle which is much cheaper than the competition in general, without that vehicle being a cheap tacky box.

This is business.  If Tesla does not cut prices it won't make it easier for new entrants, it will just hand the lead back to FF producers who want nothing more than to slow things down.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6606 on: January 18, 2021, 02:27:49 PM »
China: Tesla Officially Starts Deliveries Of MIC Model Y

Quote
Tesla started (January 18, 2021) deliveries today of the Made-in-China (MIC) Model Y to customers in Shanghai, China. Ray4Tesla reports that the first batch has been picked up at the Shanghai Minghang Tesla Center.

https://insideevs.com/news/466755/china-tesla-starts-deliveries-mic-model-y/amp/

Tesla Giga Shanghai Made Model 3 Begins Shipping to Australia, New Zealand & Japan

RHD

Quote
Tesla is actively ramping up production as it prepares to ship the China-made RHD Model 3s to Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. The design studio for ordering MIC Model 3 is open, and shows delivery times from two to 12 weeks, depending on the country.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-model-3-made-in-china-begins-shipping-to-australia-new-zealand
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6607 on: January 18, 2021, 06:38:18 PM »
I think Tesla are setting a bar for the future.  effectively saying to it's competitors 'catch me if you can'.

The purpose is twofold,
It makes it harder for competitors to enter the market as they struggle to compete on price point.
It forces them to lower prices, and be less profitable\ unprofitable


These two factors allow Tesla to continue building capacity to fulfill the market demand, whilst making it harder for existing FF producers to switch to EVs.  They are effectively suppressing competition whilst cornering the market.  There is no reason to keep prices higher in order to pay shareholders, it would just increase the space in which it's competitors could profitably enter the market.
This still doesn't make sense when the overall market is supply constrained. Why would the competitors have to decrease prices when people are willing to pay more?

Simple example....

Business A has the capacity to produce 100,000 widgets
Business B has the capacity to produce 20,000 widgets.

Demand for widgets is 300,000 at $10 a peice.

Both A and B selling a combined 120,000 widgets. Business A decided to reduce widget price to $5 a piece, because someone told them it would be good business.
Now, both A and B sold a combined 120,000 widgets, except business A reduce their profits by 50%

Makes no sense to me.....  simpler explanation is that Tesla is having a demand problem, but I don't know how to play the 12 dimension business chess like you folks.


zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6608 on: January 18, 2021, 07:04:07 PM »
zizek
Quote
had to deal with servicing nightmare over the years,
We need a better class of troll
You do not need to service a Tesla .Any one can top up wiper fluid and rotate  tyre all the serving a Tesla needs for many tens of thousands of kms.
You  mean  repairs not servicing.

thanks very the pedantry, adding a lot to the discussion..... Weird that Tesla calls their service centers service centers even though they don't have to service teslas ::)


FWIW The jd powers results your links are referencing are well known to  be pay to play nonsense .
http://www.allwaysdrive.com/home//jd-powers-dependability-study#:~:text=Finally%2C%20J.D.%20Power%20Awards%20are,right%20to%20say%20they%20did.

Did you even either my links or the link you posted? Yeah,these studies are performed by established institutions that have their own biases, I don't dispute that, you can't really trust anything under capitalism - it's good to be critical, especially when someone can profit immensely for their dishonesty (I wonder what that reminds me of). But I did exactly what your link suggested, I also backed up those surveys with anecdotes from the Tesla forums... Not only that, the blog post you linked mentions that the surveys are inaccurate because they only cover the warranty period. Tesla hasn't even been mass-producing cars for more than 3 years, so if their reliability is already shot, than how bad is it going to be in 5 or 10 years? Maybe that's why we're starting to see recalls like the screen and suspension being taken more seriously now.....?

 

As to deprecation.
Even with Tesla steadily lowering prices and increasing performance on its cars over time they still hold value well on the second hand market
Quote
Hybrid and electric cars typically don't hold their value, as electric car technology changes more quickly than iPhones apps. Tesla, however, bucks this trend in the luxury segment, and does very well among its peers. For the 5-year and 7-year periods, Tesla has ranked 2nd behind Lexus. While we just have long-term figures for the Model S, Tesla's success bodes well for current (no pun intended) and future Tesla models. We'll be interested to see how other Tesla models hold up once they've been in marketplace for a longer period of time.
https://caredge.com/

This is the best argument that would indicate that Tesla's are supply constrained - but at lower price (compared to their original prices). The demand sharply drops off at the higher price, because that's when luxury brands are in the same price range.

zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6609 on: January 18, 2021, 07:07:25 PM »


Or, instead of this convoluted mess you invented, maybe the answer is a lot more clear? Such as Tesla is having a demand problem?

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6610 on: January 18, 2021, 08:52:36 PM »


Or, instead of this convoluted mess you invented, maybe the answer is a lot more clear? Such as Tesla is having a demand problem?

Let me see.  Order book full, struggling to deliver, waiting lists in most countries.

Not the definition I would choose for a demand problem.

But it takes all kinds.
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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6611 on: January 18, 2021, 11:40:10 PM »
Quote from: zizek
Makes no sense to me.....  simpler explanation is that Tesla is having a demand problem, but I don't know how to play the 12 dimension business chess like you folks.

Company A has a product on the market.  It can do a,b,c and costs z.

Company B decides to enter the market.  They look at the competition and decide they cannot design and bring a car to market that can do a,b,c and a price point of z.  So they choose not to risk the money on a car that isn't competitive in the market place.  Sooner or later this company will have to bite the bullet but for now they opt to go for a low volume niche market to avoid the competition.

Company C has a tight budget but can just about compete with company A by offering a car that does a, b but not c.  If company A drops prices to match then they are selling an inferior product at the same price.

How does the consumer react to this?  Do they buy company C's car anyway or do they try to wait for the car from company A, only going for the inferior car once they have run out of patience waiting.

This is where Tesla is, selling everything they have, deterring other entrants into the market and persuading those who they don't have a vehicle for to wait.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2021, 11:51:10 PM by BeeKnees »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6612 on: January 19, 2021, 01:20:34 AM »
gerontocrat wrote:
Quote
Miami does not have an underground transit system for a very good reason.

The geology of Miami and Florida
...
As a result of the aquifer, it is not possible to dig more than 15 to 20 ft (5 to 6 m) beneath the city without hitting water, which impedes underground construction, though some underground parking garages exist. For this reason, the mass transit systems in and around Miami are elevated or at-grade.

Quote
@truth_tesla  1/18/21, 4:22 AM
How does the Netherlands have tunnels, if much of the country is below sea level?
The answer: tunnel concrete walls are waterproof, and tunnels are probably also excellent emergency shelters during hurricanes as well.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t…
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1351097608547278852
@truth_tesla :
 Fun fact: about 50% of Netherlands' surface is at or below 1m above sea level - and a majority of their underground tunnels are below sea level.
Info at the link
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6613 on: January 19, 2021, 01:53:17 AM »
Quote
Why has Tesla lowered the price of their cars numerous times if the market is supply constrained?

Because they can?
Because when the average industry profit margin is 5 to 10%, and Tesla’s profit margin is 30 to 40%, customers who learn that might be a tiny bit miffed?

Tesla Model Y Made In China Has 29.4% Gross Margin Per Analysts
Quote
Compared to the industry average of some 8-10 percent gross margin on luxury vehicles, the Model Y's nearly 30% margin is outstanding. Previous reports suggested the China-made Model 3 Standard Range Plus fares even better, with a gross profit margin near 40 percent. Tesla China has reduced the price of the Model 3 since that early report.
https://insideevs.com/news/464539/tesla-model-y-30-percent-gross-margin-china/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6614 on: January 19, 2021, 01:58:20 AM »
—- Batteries
Quote
Tesla (@Tesla) 1/17/21, 4:08 PM
Come work on cell / battery production at Giga Texas & Giga Berlin!  tesla.com/battery-jobs
➡️ https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1350912868624035842
1 min vid of 3680 battery factory machines at the link.

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 1/18/21, 12:52 AM
Battery cell production is the fundamental rate-limiter slowing down a sustainable energy future. Very important problem.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1351044768030142464

—-
January 18, 2021
Tesla renews contract with Jeff Dahn’s battery team at Dalhousie University
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-dalhouse-university-battery-team-contract-renewal-jeff-dahn/

October 19, 2020
Tesla battery researcher Jeff Dahn’s tests hint at li-ion cells breaking the 2M-mile barrier
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-jeff-dahn-2-million-mile-battery-video/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6615 on: January 19, 2021, 12:01:38 PM »
I'm always a little bit cautious about these kind of testing results with vehicle usage.

Because, simply, when we get to mass market, people don't do 0% to 100% and then 0% again.

The really good news here is that if you have a battery with 340m range which is charged from 0% to 30% and fully discharged, every time, it is still over 1m miles at 10,000 cycles.

Remembering that 0% to 30% and back to 0% again is the same degradation as 0 % to 100% and back to 0% again (1 cycle).  You just get less than 1/3 the range driven for that cycle.

That being said, with average mileage of 30mpd, it would take the better part of a century to reach severe degradation with a 10,000 cycle battery.

For goods vehicles, the full 2m miles could easily be seen as they have a totally different charge/discharge profile.

If they keep going like this, EV batteries will exceed almost any level of charge discharge within the lifetime of the vehicle.  For instance taking a vehicle with a 150m range, charging to 10% and discharging to 0% at every single charge, with a 10,000 cycle capacity, would still give the average 30mpd user 13 years before significant degradation set in.

That is way, way, beyond any pessimistic view of performance and hard, but not impossible, to downplay against EV.

Good news.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6616 on: January 19, 2021, 01:44:39 PM »
Quote
Why has Tesla lowered the price of their cars numerous times if the market is supply constrained?

Because they can?
Because when the average industry profit margin is 5 to 10%, and Tesla’s profit margin is 30 to 40%, customers who learn that might be a tiny bit miffed?
That was also the one i was going for.

Also they learnt more about making cars and making them cheaper. A while ago a video was posted of some US vehicle tech researchers who took apart a Tesla. That one still had many improvements that could be made , many of which have been made by now. Things like casting multiple parts as one part which shortens assembly and thus also reduces cost etc. 
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6617 on: January 19, 2021, 02:44:47 PM »
Things like casting multiple parts as one part which shortens assembly and thus also reduces cost etc.
A long long time ago a car mechanic was mending my vehicle (it was French). "Look at the f*!*ing thing" he swore. "I have to take the front of the car off to change the f*!*ing fan belt. Why? Because they design the car for ease and cheapness of assembly. They don't give a flying exchange of bodily fluids about repair and maintenance of the f*!*ing thing".

So all those clever things that Tesla are doing might be good for their profit margin and reduce the price a bit, but what happens to repair and maintenance costs? Can you change a lightbulb or do you have to replace an entire sealed unit light assembly?

The throwaway society rules, OK?
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6618 on: January 19, 2021, 02:59:09 PM »
So all those clever things that Tesla are doing might be good for their profit margin and reduce the price a bit, but what happens to repair and maintenance costs? Can you change a lightbulb or do you have to replace an entire sealed unit light assembly?

The throwaway society rules, OK?

A bit harsh,
There is no engine to repair on an EV, the motors are in the wheels.
The 'light bulbs' on the Model 3/Y are multiple long lasting LEDs with no engine behind them to get in the way.  Changing the LED drivers and control units looks straightforward to remove and plug in a replacement, losing enough LEDs that you need to replace them looks like a new unit. 


NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6619 on: January 19, 2021, 05:54:50 PM »
It was more about replacing 70 components which had to be bolted and welded together with 2 or 3.

Tesla averages around 20% margin in the US and over 30% in China.  The difference between Tesla and the incumbents (10% margin on average), is that they are not growing and their market is saturated.

Tesla margins will drop as the build out and delivery matures and their products become even easier to build and faster to build.

Tesla prices will drop faster when roadrunner comes to fruition and they are building large volumes of much cheaper batteries.

Tesla expects, eventually, to compete with FF vehicles on a price par when battery prices reach Battery Day advertised levels.  Anyone who can't keep up will not make the cut.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6620 on: January 19, 2021, 06:21:15 PM »
Since Tesla does most of their own servicing (and increasing amounts of its own insuring), they not only have an eye on ease of manufacture, but other future expenses. For example, the crash rails in the new one-piece rear casting are designed to be cut off after a crash, and new ones are bolted on along with the new rear bits.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6621 on: January 19, 2021, 11:43:41 PM »
One brand of minivans from the 80's had a sparkplug that was difficult to get to. The approved method was to remove the engine from the motor mounts. Most people including many professional mechanics either ignored the last spark plug or drilled a hole in the firewall. Both methods caused problems. Cost of ownership studies have encouraged most automakers to spend time thinking about repair challenges. Problem is companies do not want you to repair stuff they want to sell you a new one. An LED is too cheap to make any money on. Also it is a commodity so no brand mark up. If they package them individually they spend more on the packaging. While LEDs in general can last a long time a few often burnout quickly. If one goes out and it is not critical it may get ignored. A headlight assembly is brand and model specific so large markups are included in prices. If it isn't repaired it reinforces the nonsense that new is better. We need strong right to repair laws. I have not seen any studies on the costs of these practices but I bet it would represent a significant percentage of GDP thrown away. Many companies spend money to make sure their products do not last too long. Expected product lifetimes continue to shrink not just to make products cheaper but also to increase sales. 

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6622 on: January 20, 2021, 12:54:35 PM »
They also set prices to a level which are prohibitive and refuse to repair with other than cripplingly expensive parts.

My BIL arrived to us in France with a binding brake disc.  The caliper with electrically actuated handbrake had seized and needed to be replaced.

The new Bosch one was over €900 without fitting!  The reconditioned one was €350.  In the end he took reconditioned.  Pattern parts off ebay €159 but main dealers won't fit them.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6623 on: January 23, 2021, 09:38:34 PM »
—- Drone vid: Giga Press in action at Fremont (also, robots)
Quote
Sawyer Merritt  (@SawyerMerritt)1/22/21, 1:40 PM
BREAKING: Tesla Fremont factory Giga Press seen in action on video for the first time today.
Full video: youtube.com/watch?v=BwoiFC…  [ https://t.co/ov7l2iOPbZ ]
➡️ https://twitter.com/sawyermerritt/status/1352687478008897538
[1-minute clip at the Twitter link.]
< ...?
<< its a casting, not a stamp. But in essence, yes, the car will be made from thee components, the rear casting, the front casting and structural battery pack joining the two.
> My rough measures incl 8x time: ~240 sec/piece
15/hour, 360/day, 131400/year
Enough for monthly 11k S+X Plaid
< Ummm... why is there a Giga Hole in the roof?
Sawyer: Ventilation
Tavi:  Might also be for crane access, if/when they need to replace the casting dies. They might want to cast different parts (rear/front, different models) in batches and swap the dies in between.  Notice how the HPDC machines in the Berlin & Austin GFs are placed under bridge cranes.
> Before accepting delivery, check your Tesla megacastings for squished drones.

—- Giga Texas prepares for three
During the night of January 18-19, 2021, concrete foundations for three Giga Press machines were poured at Giga Texas.
Tesla Giga Texas Is Making Huge Daily Progress: January 23 Construction Update
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-giga-austin-construction-progress-january-23-2021
Photos and video.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6624 on: January 24, 2021, 02:02:22 PM »
The latest earnings fence sitting by Barrons tells an interesting story.

Quote
We could cite all sorts of analyst commentary to support the bullish Tesla thesis into earnings. We could note that some analysts recently increased their target price. We could cite reams of negative commentary, too. Frankly, all of it is probably of minimal utility. Musk’s vision of the future, and his command of Tesla’s ecosystem, exists in what is arguably an alternative universe that children understand, even if many adults do not.

They certainly could spout every kind of analysis, but calling the understanding of what is currently happening in Tesla land childish, is being cowardly in the extreme.

There are two clear facts in Q4 2020 which differentiate from Q4 2019.

First the largest increase in new capacity and deliveries for 2020 came in the factory with the highest margins, significantly higher than Fremont which was the only factory they had in 2019.

Second, in Q4 2020 Tesla had raised enough stock based equity to pay for almost any level of expansion and also pay back expiring bonds.

This is a radical departure from any prior Q4 for Tesla.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6625 on: January 24, 2021, 03:39:21 PM »
The latest earnings fence sitting by Barrons tells an interesting story.

Quote
We could cite all sorts of analyst commentary to support the bullish Tesla thesis into earnings. We could note that some analysts recently increased their target price. We could cite reams of negative commentary, too. Frankly, all of it is probably of minimal utility. Musk’s vision of the future, and his command of Tesla’s ecosystem, exists in what is arguably an alternative universe that children understand, even if many adults do not.

They certainly could spout every kind of analysis, but calling the understanding of what is currently happening in Tesla land childish, is being cowardly in the extreme.

There are two clear facts in Q4 2020 which differentiate from Q4 2019.

First the largest increase in new capacity and deliveries for 2020 came in the factory with the highest margins, significantly higher than Fremont which was the only factory they had in 2019.

Second, in Q4 2020 Tesla had raised enough stock based equity to pay for almost any level of expansion and also pay back expiring bonds.

This is a radical departure from any prior Q4 for Tesla.

TSLA has appreciated by ~700% in the YoY period mentioned.  It's a fantasyland scenario that supports such valuation.   Sure, it could happen, and TSLA seems to be in a great position right now.  TSLA could just as easily be dead money for the next decade, all while growing in to their current valuation.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6626 on: January 24, 2021, 10:03:46 PM »
—- Tesla Robotaxis in the Las Vegas tunnel
Quote
Tesla vehicles with drivers will move people through the tunnels at the beginning of the system’s operations. However, the board expects autonomous operations with Tesla cars “no later than December 31 2021,” and has agreed to provide a renegotiation fee once the shift takes place.
https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-boring-company-las-vegas-loop-new-funding/

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)1/24/21, 2:46 PM
Under Vegas in @boringcompany tunnel yesterday with my boys

< Can’t wait for official @boringcompany opening rave
Elon Musk:
Fallout-themed opening party for Vegas Loop happening as soon as allowed
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1353428970121793537
⬇️ Photo below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6627 on: January 24, 2021, 10:21:20 PM »
—- Q4 2020 Results
Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Financial Results and Webcast
Quote
PALO ALTO, Calif., January 14, 2021 – Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2020 after market close on Wednesday, January 27, 2021.
What: Date of Tesla Q4 and full year 2020 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, January 27, 2021
Time: 3:30 p.m. Pacific Time / 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time

Q4 & FY 2020 Update: http://ir.tesla.com 
Webcast: http://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)
Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company’s website.
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-announces-date-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2020-financial-results-and-webcast


An opinion:
Quote
JE Market Research (@JE_Research)1/24/21, 12:18 AM
$TSLA earnings, FY '21. guide (840-875k vs. 810k est.), and Biden's climate plan (7.5k-15k EV tax credit) all happening on January 27th. This will not be a sell the news day like previous $TSLA earnings, battery day, etc. These will be explosive catalysts leading to a 100% run.
https://twitter.com/je_research/status/1353210657261330433
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6628 on: January 24, 2021, 11:05:56 PM »
The latest earnings fence sitting by Barrons tells an interesting story.
Quote
We could cite all sorts of analyst commentary to support the bullish Tesla thesis into earnings. We could note that some analysts recently increased their target price. We could cite reams of negative commentary, too. Frankly, all of it is probably of minimal utility. Musk’s vision of the future, and his command of Tesla’s ecosystem, exists in what is arguably an alternative universe that children understand, even if many adults do not.

They certainly could spout every kind of analysis, but calling the understanding of what is currently happening in Tesla land childish, is being cowardly in the extreme.
I read that differently. IMO they are saying it is simple to understand but many adults are stuck in their preconceived notions of how the world should work. Maybe the rest of the article supports your interpretation IDK.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6629 on: January 24, 2021, 11:33:11 PM »
Maybe the rest of the article supports your interpretation IDK.

Certainly looked that way to me.  It looked to me that the article was saying that Tesla shares and Tesla bulls were off in their own little lala land and only those with no experience would believe it.

On the other hand they could have done a bit of cogent original thinking and weighed the likelihood of market opinions coming true on that thinking.

In the end they decided to fence sit and heckle.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6630 on: January 26, 2021, 07:43:39 PM »
After years of trying to shift the zeitgeist here I have had no success. Tesla and the techno-capitalist "solution" to climate change has firmly made its home here. The failure of Tesla's model for "sustainability" will not be clear until it's too late, so I'm not going to spend anymore time shitting up your board.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6631 on: January 27, 2021, 11:49:37 AM »
I don't think that the position of sustainability is unimportant.  Just irrelevant at this moment in time for the EV fleet.

In 2020 there were 3.2m plug in vehicles sold.  At the same time 58.8m ff vehicles were sold.

Taking the EU average annual driving of 12,000km and an average l/100km of 6 (this is likely to be between 60% to 70% of actual), in 2020 there were 42 billion litres of fuel burned.

That is so totally unsustainable that most people try to avoid the figure.  Let alone 58 million unsustainable vehicles with a likely lifetime of 10 - 20 years.  Built, delivered and bought in One Year.

Complaining that 0.81% of the world vehicles produced and consumed in 2020 are "unsustainable" because of, what?  That recycling is not good enough?  Or that they still use some grid energy which is not CO2 neutral? May sound good in isolation, but opened to the light of day, it is not a compelling argument.

Ah, 'But, Musk is rich so it's all bad.

That's the problem I have with the attitude.  Almost anything in the EV space is more sustainable than BAU right now.  So the argument that Tesla is not "sustainable" is simply arguing a political point because you don't like a particular person, his views or the fact that he's making obscene amounts of money doing what the incumbents refused to do.

Not an argument likely to have much sympathy.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6632 on: January 27, 2021, 10:33:42 PM »
Tesla Q4 2020 Financial Results are out.  Conference call is at 3:30 pm PST.

Links to both, and more, at: https://ir.tesla.com
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6633 on: January 27, 2021, 11:06:47 PM »
From the report:

• Giga Texas progress over 3 months.

• Giga Shanghai Model Y die cast

• Model S refresh

Click to embiggen.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6634 on: January 27, 2021, 11:15:10 PM »
Quote
The company also gave some production guidance going forward, writing “Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html

Checking my spreadsheet, 50% growth, sustained, is 19m in 20290 and 28m by 2030.

So I wonder how "multi year" that 50% growth target is for.

It also says.

Quote
The company expects faster delivery growth than that for 2021.

In other words, more than 750k in 2021.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6635 on: January 27, 2021, 11:16:26 PM »
Tesla Partners with Samsung to Develop New 5 Nanometer Chip for FSD : Report

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-partners-with-samsung-to-develop-a-new-5nm-chip-for-fsd

Meaning HW4 can run faster, with more transistors, for less power and heat.

Should be interesting.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6636 on: January 27, 2021, 11:57:26 PM »
Tesla has the capacity for 1,050,000 vehicles live today.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6637 on: January 28, 2021, 12:04:47 AM »

Quote
The company expects faster delivery growth than that for 2021.

In other words, more than 750k in 2021.

750k would be rather disappointing compared to your 1.2m projection.

Current installed capacity listed as
Fremont S/X: 100,000 (2020 total production/deliveries was around 55,000 but plaid update)
Fremont 3/Y:  500,000
Shanghai 3/Y: 450,000

This suggest 1m might well be hard to exceed from current installed capacity. Existing production at Shanghai may make the ramp up less problematic.

Quote
In Berlin and Austin, we remain on track to commence vehicle production this year

That could be just a few right at the end of the year. OTOH already installing machinery at Berlin suggests rather sooner.

1m vehicles seems likely. If Berlin goes smoothly and starts production not long after mid 2021 then 1.1m may be achievable but I remain dubious of 1.2m vehicles.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6638 on: January 28, 2021, 03:00:38 AM »
Notes from the conference call

—- Guidance
Expect 50% growth for “many years to come.”
Zach: 1) underlying auto gross margin continued to expand. 2) we may materially exceed 50% growth in 2021.
(So, “750,000+” for 2021 —  but everyone knows they’re going to do more than that. Maybe 1 million+.)

— FSD
There are about 1,000 FSD Beta testers out there now.  Unpracticed trips increasingly without interventions.  Need 100 to 200% better than human driving for certification.
Elon Musk: "You can justify todays $TSLA valuation if you account for FSD and it's profit potential and I think that is what many investors are doing"
"FSD Subscriptions coming in the next month or two"
That new chip Tesla is developing?  HW3 is good enough for FSD, has not been fully used yet. Next version 3 times more powerful, with higher resolution cameras.  “An improvement, but not a game-changer.”

— Batteries
New Model S still uses 18650 (or 1865).  So other suppliers don’t all need to switch to 4680 — requiring that would only slow down the supply chain.
"Tesla wants to increase purchases from all cell suppliers –– CATL, Panasonic, LG. We told them we'll take as many cells as they can possibly produce"
100 GWh of 4680 in 2022?!  (That's twice Tesla's total cell production capacity for 2020.)

—- Sharing
"We're very open to licensing our software to others, and we've had preliminary discussions about licensing Autopilot to other OEMs" –Elon Musk
Tesla is open to licensing autopilot, autobidder software etc. to 3rd parties.
Tesla to expand Supercharger network to other manufacturers

—- Improve China market share?
"We are currently the leader in the Chinese EV market" –– @elonmusk
Only 2% of Chinese users have purchased FSD.  We expect that to increase later this year as improvements roll out.

—- The new Model S
It will be the first production car of any type to go 0-60mph in under 2 seconds.  (Per the report, including the Bugatti Chiron, Lamborghini Huracán Performante, Porsche Spyder, etc.)  And it’s a sedan you can get as a seven-seater.  The new version will be $10,000 more than the old version, so recent buyers should not feel cheated.  It will be “the best car on the road, at any price.”
(New specs page includes new microphones that support active noise cancellation.)

—- Zach Kirkhorn:
We can build factories more efficiently now because we can build for future needs from the outset, rather than adding on incrementally.
"Tesla settled $2B of debt in Q4 and will continue doing so this quarter."
"Our operating margin will continue to grow and remain industry leading"
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6639 on: January 28, 2021, 05:57:27 AM »
for the troll .

Flounce all you want we have seen it before.
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/RationalWiki:Leaving_and_never_coming_back
What will reopening the credit in the USA  do to Tesla sales? If all US Tesla are instantly $7000 us cheaper ?
What will the start of giga Berlin do to the price in Europe?
How much market is there for the model Y only sold limited markets now ?
If Tesla is competitive in its gross production margins with its present structure what will above changes do to the completion?

 
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6640 on: January 28, 2021, 06:41:13 AM »
A couple of charts:


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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6641 on: January 28, 2021, 09:43:09 AM »
Quote from: crandles
[/quote

750k would be rather disappointing compared to your 1.2m projection.

I did not project 1.2m.  I said 1m was well within the capabilities of the current facilities and that Berlin and Texas could drive that as high as 1.2m if Tesla chose to drive really hard from he opening.  Texas and Berlin are total unknowns because of their size.

750k is the first hard number they have given besides Musks "about there" in reply to an 850k forecast.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6642 on: January 28, 2021, 12:38:26 PM »
On the other hand, if Shanghai Phase2 does a slow ramp and Texas and Berlin don't start shipping until Q4 2021 and in numbers equivalent to Shanghai Phase1 2020, then Tesla could wind up closer to 850k than 1.2m.

The devil is in the detail and just how much Tesla learned from Fremont and Shanghai Phase1.  If phase 2 goes onto  3 shifts from the get go, then we are looking at 1m or more.  If it starts on 1 shift and ramps through 2 shifts to 3 shifts in late Q3, then closer to 850k.

That will become evident over Q1.  The potential is there.  The more interesting question is "are the batteries?"

That being said, they have claimed growth will average 50% with slightly higher in 2021.  50% growth is 750 for 2021.  So a stake in the ground to watch.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6643 on: January 28, 2021, 12:46:42 PM »
FWIW, here is what I found.

During the call Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research asked if Tesla would hit 850k to 1m in 2021.  Musk said "near enough".  The press took this to mean that the Tesla target was somewhere inbetween.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-q3-2020-earnings-call-850k-1m-deliveries-in-2021-not-far-off-per-elon-musk

Looking at the numbers.

Q1/2/3 produced 318,350 vehicles delivered.  This averages out at 12 week quarters (Tesla takes a week off every quarter to stand down and tune), at 8,843 vehicles per week.  Better than 2019, but, still, hardly earth shaking.

But to acheive 500k per year, excepting the 4k vehicles which were produced in Q3 but not delivered, Tesla would need to produce and deliver 177,650 vehicles, or 14,804 vehicles per week.

Now that is Fremont and Shanghai phase 1.

That 14,804 gives us 710,600 for a 48 week year in 2021.

I'm ignoring the fact that Shanghai rapidly increased output in September or that the Fremont Model Y production is still ramping up.

if we add 300k for Shanghai phase 2 and 100k each for Berlin and Texas in 2021, we get 1.21m.

So, I guess, 1m is "close enough".



300,000 Model 3; 250,000 Model Y
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-shanghai-550k-model-3-model-y-production-2021/


I prefer to subject this to a bit of logic, rather than any tweets or media proclamations.

Phase 1 makes the Model3.  It has a run rate, today, of 300k.  Phase2 is larger, has newer equipment and will be tuned more quickly.

When Shanghai was publicised, way back when, it was scoped for a volume of Model3 and a larger volume of ModelY because the Y was deemed to have a larger marketplace than the 3 in China.

So, from that, we can infer that this larger factory is designed to make more than the Model3.

In that case, as I have said for a while now, expecting Phase2 to only contribute 200k or 250k in 2021 doesn't make sense.  Unless you expect a slow ramp.

Phase1 started slowly, ramped once in Q2 and again at the end of Q3.  It is talking about 300k for 2021 and this may be correct.  Or it may be an understatement.  3 shifts have only just started and whilst the daily volume is around 280k per year (I use a 48 week year), there is good reason to expect this to ramp further in 2021.

Either way, Fremon it already over 500k vehicles per year so the recently, much bleated, 850k for 2021 is already history and this completely ignores both Texas and Berlin.

Making my 1.2m prediction much closer to actual reality.

Predictions are more certain than projections which may be more dependant on assumptions.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6644 on: January 28, 2021, 01:31:10 PM »
FWIW indeed. The modest fall in share price in after hours trading should be seen in the context of the broad market having a wobble plus the GameStop weird stuff.

Mind you, that big payout to Musk (plus more to come) + the sale of regulatory credits (that must end sometime) makes underlying proftability look much less pretty.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/jan/28/tesla-shares-fall-despite-making-first-annual-profit-elon-musk
Tesla shares fall despite electric carmaker's first annual profit
Bumper payout to CEO Elon Musk and move to cheaper EV models means earnings missed forecasts

Quote
Tesla shares fell in after-hours trading after the electric carmaker’s earnings fell short of expectations, despite recording its first annual profit, after a bumper payout to its chief executive, Elon Musk.

Operating income rose to $575m (£420m) in the fourth quarter, but it was held back by a $267m payout for Musk. Under a scheme waved through by investors in 2018, Musk could eventually be eligible for awards worth up to $55.8bn as the share price rises.

Tesla is expanding rapidly as it tries to match its manufacturing capabilities to a stock market valuation that surged eightfold during 2020 to make it the most valuable automotive company in the world. That rise in value has made Musk the world’s richest person, with a net worth of $206bn, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

During 2020, Tesla made an annual profit for the first time, with net income of $721m. However, it made more than $1.5bn from selling regulatory credits to other carmakers during the year, a profit source that will disappear as rivals catch up with electric car production.

The average selling price of new Teslas fell by 11% during the fourth quarter of 2020 as it shifted towards cheaper Model 3 and Y models.

The disparity between its earnings and its valuation – at $819bn when markets closed on Wednesday – means investors are keenly awaiting signs of the company’s future growth. Tesla said it expected to grow output by more than 50% during 2021, but gave no further detail.

Tesla last year narrowly missed its target of delivering 500,000 vehicles, but it is racing to finish new factories in Texas and Berlin. It is still on track to build its first vehicles in both plants during 2021, as well as expanding its factory in Shanghai further, Tesla said.

One big advantage Tesla gained during its enormous share price increase was easy access to capital, removing a significant concern in earlier years. Tesla had $19.4bn of cash or cash equivalents at the end of December, a pile that will allow it to continue to make big investments in technologies that it views as key to future earnings such as still-under-development autonomous driving capabilities.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6645 on: January 28, 2021, 03:54:39 PM »
Quote
But to acheive 500k per year, excepting the 4k vehicles which were produced in Q3 but not delivered, Tesla would need to produce and deliver 177,650 vehicles, or 14,804 vehicles per week.

They manufactured 180k or 15,000 vehicles per week.  But only delivered 180k so just undershot the 500k delivered target.

However that is a 720k run rate for the year.  In fact it is more, the deliveries for Shanghai in December were over 23,000, but the first 4 weeks of Q4 was just over 10,000.



This means the run rate is over 720k with the installed and operating capacity at the end of Dec.

If phase2 ramps at the same speed as Phase1, then we are looking at an absolute minimum of 860k based on the 720k run rate.

So it is obvious that 50% growth for 2021 is too low.  The question is what will it be.

My assumption that Phase2 would ramp faster than Phase1, was based on the fact that phase 1 needed to set up the management, organisation, training structures, transport and 1001 other things that need to be in place to start up a brand new factory complex.  Expanding an existing facility is significantly easier.

This leads us to assume that the Model Y will produce a figure closer to 200k than the Model 3 140k in 2020.  It is not a big reach and that leaves us at 920k.

During that time, it is expected that Model 3 will ramp to 300k, Given that it is already at 280k right now.

At this point we are so close to 1m it doesn't make much difference.

Note, we haven't even touched Berlin or Texas.

So let's call my assumptions a forecast and leave predictions to Q3 2021.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6646 on: January 28, 2021, 04:10:05 PM »
Mind you, that big payout to Musk (plus more to come) + the sale of regulatory credits (that must end sometime) makes underlying proftability look much less pretty.

Last year the whole discussion was about how Tesla could hope to make 4Q of profit and stay in the S&P 500.  Now we are discussing how the 5th Q of profit looks "messy".

Honestly for a company growing as fast as Tesla to even make consistent profits, is a feat in itself without trying to treat it like a fully established company which is in a fully saturated market.

Tesla had to make its own market, its own products and most of its own technology to service it.  Now they have hit the S&P500 they are being assessed like a company in a mature marketplace with 5 decades of stable business behind it.

I suppose it won't stop but then it will also keep driving stock market fractures on the stock.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6647 on: January 28, 2021, 05:34:50 PM »
Mind you, that big payout to Musk (plus more to come) + the sale of regulatory credits (that must end sometime) makes underlying proftability look much less pretty.

Thus illustrating the difficulty of classifying success solely using financial report numbers. ;)

Notes:
Tesla has said repeatedly that they don’t count on credit sales to burnish their results.  For Q4, they didn’t even know what credit revenue would be.

Zack Kirkhorn on yesterday’s call:
Quote
On the regulatory and credit sales side, this isn't always an area that's extremely difficult for us to forecast. 2020 regulatory credit sales ended up being higher than our expectations. And it's difficult to give guidance on that.

I mean what I said before is that in the long-term, regulatory credit sales will not be a material part of the business, and we don't plan the business around that. It's possible that for a handful of additional quarters, it remains strong. It's also possible that it's not. Most of our regulatory credit revenue from Q4 was not lined up prior to the beginning of the quarter.

And these were discrete deals that were struck over the course of the quarter. ...

As to Musk’s payout... how do we value the benefit of having him as CEO?  Tesla would not be the success it is, and will be, without him. 8)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6648 on: January 28, 2021, 05:46:24 PM »
Shanghai installed annual capacity is stated as 450k.

Do you think this is 300k M3 with 3 shifts and 150k Y with 1 shift so that when it is fully producing with 3 shifts it may get close to 450k Y with not much more equipment needed plus 300k M3 for close to 750k total vehicles annually from Shanghai (eventually not in 2021)?

150k seems rather low if that is 3 shift capacity - there may be more equipment to install to get higher run rate. But is Y sized to be 50% of M3 production or 150% of M3 production or ...?

I agree about expecting faster ramp up of Shanghai Y than Shanghai M3 - having experienced management and workforce already on location will undoubtedly help. If production equipment is only initially sized to be 50% of M3 production capacity then you won't get 200k from it in 2021.

Factory physical size doesn't help if it might be half empty.

180k production in Q4 + 20k more from ramp up in production of existing production * 4 quarters + 100k Shanghai Y + some from Berlin &/or Austin might be enough to be confident of beating 50% growth in 2021 750k....

But maybe not enough to be so sure of beating 50% growth in 2021 to state that so clearly in shareholder communications. So I hope that it is just the one shift capacity that is stated. We will see.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6649 on: January 28, 2021, 05:47:29 PM »
The Kato Road battery team continues to solve the manufacturing challenges necessary for reaching their goal of 100 gigawatt hour production in 2022. (Which is twice the 2020 production capacity!)

From yesterday’s conference call:

Andrew Baglino -- Senior Vice President of Powertrain and Energy Engineering
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The in-house cell manufacturing system we revealed at Battery Day contains new processes and equipment.

So we did expect some unknown unknowns and technical challenges to arise through the production ramp. The Kato team, however, has been able to solve each manufacturing problem presented to date, and continues to improve yield and rate week-over-week and month- over-month as we move up the production S-Curve. At the same time, the cell engineering teams refined designs, and deepened understanding has reinforced our confidence in the drive process and 4680 design, meeting our performance and cost targets. And from a capacity perspective, we have 10 gigawatt hours worth of equipment landed at Kato.

The production staff is nearly all hired. Our material supply chain is established and the team is on track for full production ramp this year. Meanwhile, we've developed enough engineering confidence with our 4680 design and the production process and equipment to kick off manufacturing equipment and facility construction to support our 100 gigawatt hour 2022 goal.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tesla-tsla-q4-2020-earnings-call-transcript-2021-01-28
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.