Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Tesla glory/failure  (Read 497425 times)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6750 on: February 14, 2021, 07:40:43 PM »
Elon Musk has previously praised the accuracy of James Stephenson’s Tesla reports.  Here’s his latest:
Quote
James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) 2/13/21, 7:51 PM
 
I have updated my Tesla forecast and charts.

For those who don't want to read the whole 69-tweet thread:
slides 1-3 summarize the headline numbers & metrics
slides 4-20 are a bunch of pretty $TSLA charts (don't miss them!)
slides 21-69 are my detailed forecast model

1 of 69 
➡️ https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1360753451559510016

Or read his entire thread here:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1360753451559510016.html

⬇️ Four of his charts are attached below. Click to embiggen.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6751 on: February 14, 2021, 08:28:05 PM »
Recent Tesla FSD videos, under 3 minutes. Significant progress being made!

FSD ignoring center lines like a human when “two lanes” are really one, on back streets lined with parked cars.  Dodges oncoming car at 1:40 very well, too.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1360443066822234116

Dodging Skateboarders and a car doing a u-turn in the middle of the block
https://twitter.com/moosuraj/status/1359229466074107906

I like how it handles the jogger in the road
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1360445131745239049

FSD on side street making left turn onto busy 4-lane road
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1360540124551860225

Park seek / reverse summon may be the last step to FSD.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1360913013998374917


—- Not FSD
From Germany.  Tesla in Aisle 4! ;D
https://twitter.com/tobyarndt/status/1359183542140489729
⬇️ Photo below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10841
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4020
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6752 on: February 21, 2021, 01:20:15 PM »
Are there any big announcements coming up?

If not, will the Tesla share price be a bit saggy until the 1st quarter data hits The Street?
(Cuurently at lowest since 6th Jan)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6753 on: February 21, 2021, 01:56:50 PM »
Shanghai seems to have pushed out nearly 26k vehicles in Jan, with only 1,700 of them being Y as the Y line ramps up.  This makes a M3 cadence of around 290k for the year and we know M3 is still fine tuning and boosting performance.

Fremont has filed to make the latest sprung structure into a permanent facility. Texas, now that almost all of the snow is gone, continues the frenetic build pace and Berlin continues to limp along with no final approval in sight. In fact the final approval falls back, quarter by quarter.

Now that India has been announced, there will be a pause until they are ready to conclude the purchase agreements.

Musk has stated that the next FSD beta release will take longer and be a "step change" from the existing version.

Noise continues around the next model, a smaller vehicle, but it is unlikely that we will hear more about that until something like "design day", yet to be announced.

We continue to see more evidence that the Semi is ramping up, but is dependent on Roadrunner coming to fruition, their suppliers taking up the cells and the battery factories in Texas and Berlin happening.

We are still waiting for more news about a foray into resource mining, potentially yet to release.

All that aside, it appears that the entry into the S&P 500 really has stabilised the stock value as it is trading in a much tighter bracket.  Good news will push it up, but no news is unlikely to crash it.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6754 on: February 21, 2021, 09:43:55 PM »
—- Tesla to the rescue in Texas
Tesla owners are being saved from TX’s unusually cold weather and power outages
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-saves-owners-texas-winter-power-outage/amp/
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/18/21, 6:49 PM
SpaceX in south Texas & Tesla in central have been providing direct assistance where feasible (eg save cold turtles & help power the water treatment plant). Please let us know if we may be helpful in other ways.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1362549876706410500

—-
Tesla registered 8 of every 10 EVs in the U.S. in 2020
Quote
Out of every 10 electric cars registered in the United States in 2020, nearly eight of them were built by Tesla.
New data from Automotive News shows that Tesla owned 79% of the total EVs registered in the U.S. in 2020, leaving only 21% for the other manufacturers to divide up between themselves. This overwhelming domination is also followed by somewhat obvious premonition: Tesla’s four currently-offered electric cars made up four of the top five spots. With the Chevy Bolt EV taking third, the Model 3, Model Y, Model X, and Model S took first, second, fourth, and fifth place, respectively. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-united-states-registrations-2020/amp/

In the U.S. luxury car market, Tesla sales surpassed Audi in 2020, bested only by Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Lexus.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-overtakes-audi-luxury-car-sector/

The EQC was developed with American regulations in mind. But the US launch was delayed, then cancelled.
Mercedes-Benz won't sell the EQC in the United States after all
https://www.autoblog.com/2021/02/15/mercedes-benz-eqc-not-coming-to-america/

—-
Tesla Keeps Cutting Car Prices. What It Means for the EV Industry.
The impact on lower EV pricing on the car industry is less controversial, however. It means traditional auto makers—who plan to launch dozens of new EV models in coming years—will have to drop costs as fast, or faster, than Tesla.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-cut-ev-prices-model-3-51613678775

—-
"Tesla, the EV leader, has nothing to worry about; Tesla will stay on its cutting edge, just as Apple did in mobile phones. Steve Jobs positioned Apple firmly up market, and it has remained there, capturing the lion’s share of smartphone profits."
marketwatch.com/story/the-best…  [ https://t.co/NFv6IJ97TF ]

—-
Quote
< This FSD thing is really going to be big. It’s incredible, even at this early stage

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/20/21, 4:16 AM
Most people have no idea, even though there are so many FSD progress videos posted. Munro understood right away.
There will be a gap before the next release, but then it will be a step change better.
Tesla is solving a major real-world AI problem.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1363054845976961029

Viv:
Tesla isn’t just solving autonomy, they’re also solving unsupervised training using video data, not just images — and at massive scale. In the long run, Dojo might have a bigger impact than FSD itself
< I wonder what else the vision system they build can be used for
<< Their manufacturing processes?
< sure, that is fairly basic.  i’m thinking robots, medical, surgical, neuralink, etc

Quote
Whole Mars Catalog:
They asked @chamath: “Is Tesla a buy at an $800 billion market cap?”
➡️ https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1360870349794021382
2:20 vid
< Its all about energy, autobidder and yes they make really awesome cars. Brilliant to the point video!
<< Tesla is a multitrillion dollar car company.
It is also a multitrillion dollar energy company.
And a multitrillion dollar robotaxi company
Value of HVAC and Dojo AI Training Services could also be big.
Tesla is a buy at a $2T market cap. 

Quote
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) 2/16/21, 5:01 PM
$TSLA's 2020 GAAP net income was $6.3B more than Chevron's $CVX.
~ I find this to be an amusing reminder that GAAP accounting (or P/E ratios) is not some holy grail of business valuation and understanding the context is much more important. $TSLA
https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1361797969230639104
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6755 on: February 21, 2021, 09:53:25 PM »
—- Videos
Sandy Munro takes a cross-country trip in a Model 3 — their first in an EV — and sits down with Elon Musk at SpaceX
Quote
Sandy Munro on his Elon Interview: After our interview finished Elon said "we are having a design review if you wanna stick around." We spent 2 hours at the design review. I was blown away. I've seen dozens of CEO's. I've never seen a CEO ever that knew more about a product. 
➡️ https://twitter.com/sawyermerritt/status/1362824563705413632
Twitter clip

How Munro Met Musk: Road Trip Wrap-up Episode
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2yVZA3yDhA&t=0s

Published on Feb 17, 2021
In this episode Cory Steuben & Sandy Munro recap their impromptu Road Trip across the U.S. in the 2021 Model 3. This video is full of plenty of good stories and insights, culminating with their final visit to SpaceX in Boca Chica to interview Elon Musk.
0:00 Intro & Genesis of Road Trip
5:15 Michigan to Nebraska
10:00 Nebraska to Denver
13:16 Refinements, Headlights, Autopilot
21:40 Colorado to Malibu
24:37 Zen, Faraday Future, & Aptera
26:36 Visiting Silicon Valley
28:38 Contacting Elon's Assistant
30:08 Arcimoto: Oregon to Reno
34:56 Visiting SpaceX & Meeting Elon
44:48 Returning Home


—- Joe Rogan’s latest Elon Musk interview
Quote
Jim Hall  (@jhall) 2/13/21, 5:01 PM
This is pretty wild if you haven’t listened to latest interview with @joerogan, @elonmusk describes how @Tesla can determine how airbags deploy based on seat sensors. 
https://twitter.com/jhall/status/1360710791549313030
50 sec clip.

“The Joe Rogan Experience #1609 - Elon Musk”
The full video is 3.25 hours!  The original is on Spotify; copies keep being added to youtube, then taken down.  Tesla, SpaceX, AI, and more.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2aB2swgyXqbFA06AxPlFmr


——
—- Giga Berlin
Tesla’s final permit for Giga Berlin won’t delay Model Y production: Minister
February 16, 2021
Quote
In a recent appearance at a podcast with German media outlet InfoRadio.de, Brandenburg Economy Minister Steinbach noted that Tesla’s final permits for Gigafactory Berlin would not jeopardize the electric car maker’s plans to start vehicle production around July this year.

For now, Tesla is still building Gigafactory Berlin using pre-approvals. The site’s progress has been notable, with machines used for vehicle production already being spotted on the complex. Amidst this flurry of activity that is now being dubbed as “Tesla Speed,” Gigafactory Berlin’s final permit has remained elusive. Nevertheless, Steinbach remained optimistic, noting that Tesla’s EV factory will benefit the state of Brandenburg. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-final-approval-model-y-production/

—-
February 12, Tesla received its “pre-building permit #8.”
Quote
@GF4Tesla .build #GigaBerlin. (@Gf4Tesla) 2/12/21, 8:03 AM

Now Tesla can start building the painting units in 'Painting 'the 'Stamping' and among others the KUKA robots in 'Body in White'. And now let the work begin
mluk.brandenburg.de/mluk/de/aktuel…
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1360212908651732999

➡️youtu.be/gHgMlZxmiOk

➡️ https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1360302305598263296
At this link: 2min Drone video of GF4 site

February 20/2021
24 sec pan along the Lonnnnng west side of GF4 next to highway.
➡️ https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1363085340144238595

Probably the first body presses arrived in the ' Stamping ' ( ST ).
and are ready for installation
➡️ https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1363082819065569280
Photos

—-
“The first 4680 Model Y are expected to roll off the line in Berlin this July.
It’s already February.”
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1359693643049672712
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6756 on: February 21, 2021, 09:59:26 PM »
—- Giga Texas
Tesla Gigafactory Texas site surprises with cryptic Boring Company equipment
Quote
The Boring Company has started to establish its presence in the Lone Star State, with reports back in December noting that the tunneling startup has leased an industrial space with two buildings in Pflugerville, Travis County, Texas. The building, which is located about 23 miles away from Giga Texas, is built on 14 acres of land. The Boring Company has also initiated a hiring ramp for employees who will be based in Texas.  …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-texas-boring-company-equipment-video/amp/

—- Fremont: make “Tent” permanent
NEWS: Tesla has filed an application with the City of Fremont to expand its vehicle production facility by 64,000 sq ft. The application describes plans to implement foundations & install below-ground utilities under General Assembly 4.5 (GA 4.5).
Tesla files to expand Fremont factory, make Model Y ‘tent’ permanent
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fremont-expansion-ga-4-5-permanent/amp/


—- China
EV license plate policy in Shanghai extended until 2024. “This is a big deal.”
Quote
Earlier a rumor was circulating among NEV buyers in Shanghai that the free license plate policy would come to an end in Feb. Now the new policy, effective on March 1 thru Dec 31, 2023, stipulates continuing to issue free NEV lic plates, no restriction to buy & drive NEVs. …
~ However, if used for commercial purpose, hybrids & range extenders are excluded from the program except FCEVs or BEVs. This is positive news for Tesla as Shanghai is one of its big markets in China.
~ FYI, the free license plate program for NEV is a big deal. It may cost as much as 100k CNY or 15k USD for ICE owners to get lic plates & they’re subject to additional restrictions.
https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1360392683928178689

——
Quote
Tesla experience shop center attracts lots of people during Chinese New Year, which is not seen in other EV brand’s experience shop center (both photos are taken in the same shopping mall at the same time)
https://twitter.com/yidong_fang/status/1360545096140169216
At the link: Two pics comparing store crowd sizes. ;D


—- California
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 2/20/21, 6:26 AM
So this is interesting — Tesla is now using their Supercharger stations to sell cars.
You can go locations like Kettleman City, Traver, Visalia and Lemoore and scan a QR code on the windshield for an instant touchless test drive.
Don’t all rush over there at once…
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1363087644641488906
[ Photos at the link.]
~ Once you scan the QR code you fill out a form and then Tesla sales hooks you up for the test drive remotely.
~ let’s see legacy auto do that with their third party charging networks they cobbled together

~ hey @elonmusk you know what would be amazing
hook the Model Y test drive car at Kettleman City up with FSD / Robotaxi software
Have it give people autonomous rides to In-N-Out [Burgers]
They’ll ride in it and subscribe to FSD or buy it right away.

—-
Elon Musk walks the walk by consuming far less carbon than other billionaires
https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-carbon-emissions-vs-billionaires/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6757 on: February 23, 2021, 11:09:24 AM »
With the UK ruling on ride sharing apps, in this case Uber, which state that drivers are employees and not contractors, does this make the case for Robotaxi even more compelling?  Could Uber be one of Tesla's strongest customers?

After all, it's a bit hard to claim that the AI in your Robotaxi is an employee!

Europe, Britain, other places in the world, are looking at the gig economy and seeing an opportunity to remove social costs.  OK California is going backwards with Prop22, but many other countries are not.

This makes it all the more likely that the future of ride hailing transport will be autonomous..  Effectively killing the jobs for those drivers and putting the entire cost of their support on the state.

Good for Tesla though.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

blu_ice

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 101
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6758 on: February 23, 2021, 03:20:40 PM »
In the age of robocar there won't be Uber drivers of any kind. That's why Uber is designing it's own robocars.

Uber wants to count drivers as contractors, because that would move downside of not having rides to the drivers. All the upside is supposed to remain with Uber, of course.

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3144
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1283
  • Likes Given: 1203
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6759 on: February 23, 2021, 03:55:53 PM »
It´s not just about rides. Having them be (fake) independent contractors also allow the company not to pay all kinds of taxes. If you are truly independent you could drive for the highest bidder which they can´t do.

So they do not pay all kinds of taxes they should for employees (money for sick leave, unemployment etc) reporting that as profit while stealing from countries they operate in. This earns them far more.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10841
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4020
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6760 on: February 23, 2021, 03:56:35 PM »
First the amusement...

TSLA p/e ratio down almost to 1,000. Shrieks of despair! Market mayhem!!

Then some thoughts.

The NASDAQ is getting walloped. The FT, WSJ and Bloomberg all say its because the tech firms' shareholders are scared of rising bond yields. The stars - e.g. TESLA, get walloped hardest.

That suggests to me that a lot of Tech exists on a paper thin margin between earnings and the cost of borrowing - rather like the frackers last year. But TESLA does not need to borrow. it has a big fat wad of cash - enough to finance expansion for some considerable time. Indeed rising bond yields might mean TESLA can earn a bit more interest on its cash holdings until they are needed.

So the invisible hand of the market is in the hands of educationally sub-normal AI? Would I be surprised?

Of course I might have this all wrong - except perhaps for the last sentence.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6802
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2492
  • Likes Given: 2246
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6761 on: February 23, 2021, 09:57:20 PM »
Ignore what FT, WSJ and Bloomberg say about reasons for market movements. They are clueless.
Your last sentence, OTOH, is quite right.

blu_ice

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 101
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6762 on: February 23, 2021, 09:59:54 PM »
Tech stocks are going down the most because they were seriously overvalued.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6763 on: February 24, 2021, 10:29:29 AM »
Tesla cut the price of the Y in Asia due to local delivery from Shanghai.  For those of us with a memory longer than 3 months (stock market analysts excluded), we remember that Tesla did exactly this with the M3 back at the end of 2019.  It had the same impact on the stock.  Once Q1 was over and stats were available, it became clear that Shanghai M3 was just below 30% margin, With the price cut.  Leading to further price cuts to keep the base M3 below the threshold for incentives provided by the Chinese government in order to make EV's more attractive.

I expect  the same news to come out about the Y with a similar rise in the stock value one it is shown that this is a price cut due to a very large increase in margin on Shanghai built Y which is shipped locally.  How the Analists could justify a reduction of price, when the prior deliveries of the Y were from the US with import taxes and transport costs, I cannot fathom.  But they keep on doing it.

Maybe they are all short Tesla?
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6764 on: February 24, 2021, 10:14:41 PM »
Tesla Daily -Streamed live on Feb 23, 2021
➤ Alex Potter of Piper Sandler joins Rob Maurer LIVE to discuss his street-high $1,200 TSLA price target, Tesla’s investment in Bitcoin, investor sentiment, competitive landscape, and more.

Alex Potter & Rob Maurer Discuss TSLA
➡️https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uySGHEcZs_o

Here's the [100-page!] Piper Sandler report ($1,200 $TLSA price target).
[Referenced upthread on Feb 1.]
piper2.bluematrix.com/docs/pdf/e2964… [ https://t.co/2RymV59c0m ]
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6765 on: February 25, 2021, 01:47:13 PM »
This is not unexpected and will be minimal.  There are three or four Model 3 lines in Fremont.

FEBRUARY 25, 2021 4:50 AM
Tesla temporarily halts production at Model 3 line in California
Quote
(Reuters) - Tesla Inc has told workers it will temporarily halt some production at its car assembly plant in California, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing a person familiar with the matter.
Workers on a Model 3 production line in Fremont were told their line would be down from Feb. 22 until March 7, according to the report. (bloom.bg/2O1QpeB)
The report did not clarify the reason for the halt and Tesla could not be immediately reached for comment.
It was also unclear how much volume or revenue Tesla would lose due to the production halt. The Fremont plant has an annual production capacity of 500,000 Model 3s and Model Ys combined.
Tesla said last month that it might face a temporary impact from a global semiconductor shortage.
Several automakers, including General Motors Co, Volkswagen AG, and Ford Motor Co, are hit by the shortage of chips, forcing them to scale down production. 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-production-idUSKBN2AP12J

Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog)2/25/21, 2:09 AM
Tesla Fremont parking lot appears to be just as full of cars as it always is at 11 PM.
Lights are on, people are entering and exiting the factory.
Seems normal
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1364834955063222272
[4 photos at the link]
Gary Black:
Apparently just the Model 3 line is impacted.  …  Seems related to weather-driven shutdown of Samsung fab in Austin. Clearly temporary.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6766 on: February 25, 2021, 05:19:58 PM »
Meanwhile Tesla will reschedule any line improvements for the shutdown period.  Normally they shut down at the end of every quarter for about a week which is why most analysts calculate on a 48 week production year.

This is unlikely to cause any real bump in numbers especially as Shanghai continues to ramp up.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6767 on: February 25, 2021, 10:52:04 PM »
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 2/25/21, 4:40 PM
 
Here’s @elonmusk’s email on what was going on at Fremont.
Says factory went back up yesterday, which explains the packed lots we saw going there last night.
Looking to recruit to accelerate S&X
Bullish

https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1365054085590704130

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/25/21, 4:34 PM
This is not about winning anyone over. We are production-limited. The reason we are making our own cells is to *supplement* max production of suppliers. Even moving at full speed, they cannot build enough cells.

< Any news on Fremont shut down?
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/25/21, 4:36 PM
Fremont shut down for two days (parts shortages) & restarted yesterday
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6768 on: February 26, 2021, 12:04:06 PM »
As a matter of interest can anyone remember when Tesla last reduced their workforce due to "issues" with production?  Days off, yes, furlough for Covid, yes, actual layoffs due to lack of sales or rough production?  Last I can see was Jan 2019.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6769 on: February 28, 2021, 07:01:22 PM »
VW as competition
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog:
Tesla called their mobile app “Tesla”.
It is central to the product experience. It shares the same name as the company, because that is the company.
 
When Volkswagen finally got around to copying Tesla, they named the app “Car-Net”.
Yeah, really. Car-Net.

https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1366001122607964165
Whole Mars Catalog:  it’s always the little things that really say it all

<  VW didn't finish the [software] in time. First cars were delivered with buggy sw. Customers even had to sign a form. they released sw v2.0 (not OTA), with less bugs. V2.1(not via OTA) is called "final version", which is odd since the car will be updated in the future. Is it really final?
<<  I don’t think it matters what each company is familiar with. I think it has more to do with the structure of the company, their management, and risk tolerance. Older companies tend to struggle more with change due to entrenched inflexible management.
< That's a factor as well. There was a very good article by the former head of r&d mercedes. He said that the main issue is that the managers don't know how to code. They are petrol heads, not SW engineers. Which often leads to very complex/not possible Tasks for the programmers

> Tesla and VW exist for very different reasons. One exists to make money. The other exists to change the world.

—-
Quote
“In a couple ways the ID.4’s engineering design betrays if not immaturity, prematurity, a rush to market” — Dan Neil, [Wall Street Journal]
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1366002913219284994

Quote
“When I say the ID.4 is 5 years behind the comparable Tesla, it’s not because I’m an Elon fanboy, a VW hater, or that I have anything to gain or lose personally. That is my best guess, based on my weeklong test drive of VW’s hot-from-oven, slightly underbaked strudel” — Dan Neil
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1365995989010538507
Text image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6770 on: February 28, 2021, 09:53:37 PM »
There is another point here and that head of R&D doesn't even realise.

If you consider the Tesla hw category 1 and the very best Nvidia hw category 2, where does that leave the Continental hw chosen by VW?

Are they trying to do 1st rate vehicle sw with 3rd rate hardware?

About a decade ago there was a theory that it didn't matter too much if your hw was cutting edge or not because parallelization would fix that for you, just plug in more slow stuff and it will all work in the end.

Add to that the view that coding portability is more important than sheer speed per execution and you have hardware/software stack made in hell. 

Poorly performing hardware with software which is general and not optimised for that poor hardware exhibit certain traits.

In fast real-time operation, they time out for completing critical operations that have a time limit. The search parameters for operation like voice are limited to a smaller dataset because the hw/software simply can't parse a big enough dataset in a reasonable time. 

This leads to events like connection failures as the negotiation time is short and events time out and you cannot connect.  It means voice recognition sets have to be smaller and navigation data more constrained.

Struggling computers exhibit certain traits. They are slow to start, they are slow to respond and they simply cannot respond to requests in a timely manner.  Internal failures cause features to be flagged as faulty and turned off.

If, however, you start it up, wait 15 minutes to settle and then use it, it will perform all operations,.  Slowly, yes, but without failures.

Adding slow hardware doesn't help if your software is not optimised for it. The added hardware simply sits idle whilst the struggling tasks complete.

The kind of development team that can make fast reacting and reliable software with poor hardware is rarer than rocking horse shite on the moon.  Just ask Tesla.  When Musk reached out for specialist AI developers he had to say he was not interested in qualifications, he needed people who could make a highly performing AI system that could do the job. Those people are unconventional lateral thinkers and the type that corporate VW will never entertain and also people who would never consider working for corporate VW.

My assessment is that VW has bought a hw story which is a dud and has layered another software story on top which makes it worse.

Tesla was initially stuck in a rut with Nvidia kit.  Not enough performance to do the job. So they did it themselves. VW does not have the experience or the culture to do it themselves.

This means that as Tesla runs ahead, VW will be unable to fix their software/hardware stack. Pushing  VW more years behind as time goes on.

It took Tesla 5 years to understand that Nvidia had little interest in creating the hardware they needed.

I wonder how long it will take VW to realise the same? Will they be 10 years behind then?
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6771 on: March 02, 2021, 09:06:12 PM »
Model 3 earns Top Safety+ award from IIHS for third year in a row
2021 Tesla Model 3
https://www.iihs.org/ratings/vehicle/tesla/model-3-4-door-sedan/2021
With crash test videos!  :o

—-
“Tesla Model 3 is on pace to become one of the best vehicles that CarEdge ever ranked for resale value.” 
https://t.co/zmD2avrjLX
⬇️ Resale data below.

—-
India woos Tesla with offer of cheaper production costs than China
Quote
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India is ready to offer incentives to ensure Tesla Inc’s cost of production would be less than in China if the carmaker commits to making its electric vehicles in the south Asian country, transport minister Nitin Gadkari told Reuters. …
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-tesla-minister-exclusive-idUSKBN2AU1AY

—-
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog:
Tesla China boss Tom Zhu doesn’t work in some big fancy office.
He has a desk in the office, right next to everyone else.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1366309512953556995
[ 2 photos at the link. ]
Elon Musk:  Tesla China team rocks!

—-
Tesla battery supplier LG to launch pilot 4680 battery line with a lofty goal
Quote
Recent reports from South Korea have indicated that LG Energy Solutions, a wholly-owned subsidiary of LG Chem, is building a pilot 4680 battery production line for Tesla. The pilot line is reportedly being constructed quickly, with the project potentially entering operations ahead of Japanese rival Panasonic, which is poised to launch its own 4680 cell production efforts for Tesla as well. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-battery-cell-production-lg-vs-panasonic/amp/

—-
Quote
Building a prototype is easy. Many have built new cars before.
But in 100 years, no new American car company has reached volume production profitably. That’s the actual hard part.
Tesla’s S3XY lineup was one of the hardest jokes to make in American history 
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1365437412780859396

—-
New Tesla ‘yoke’ steering wheel is legal in Europe and UK
Department for Transport refers to UN/EC regulation that doesn't dictate shape or size of steering apparatus
Tesla’s new U-shaped steering ‘yoke’, which is set to appear in the newly updated Model S and Model X, has been deemed legal in certain European markets, including the UK.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/new-tesla-%E2%80%98yoke%E2%80%99-steering-wheel-legal-europe-and-uk

—-
How it started:
How Mercedes got caught trashing a rental Tesla Model X
December 4, 2017
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/mercedes-got-caught-trashing-rental-210506970.html

How it’s going:
Quote
anyone heard this story and where it’s from?
apparently a german automaker bought a tesla for tear down.
when they turned it on at their HQ it detected the GPS and a mocking message from Tesla popped up...
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1366371699197767682
~ they probably saw other cars being torn down there and were like let’s fuck with these guys  ;D ;D ;D
going plaid:  Imagine the screen just displays this ;D
⬇️ Cartoon image below.


—- Giga Berlin progress
https://twitter.com/moosuraj/status/1365665483647823876
⬇️ Image below. Click to embiggen.  Upper left photo is dated 2020-02-09
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10841
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4020
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6772 on: March 04, 2021, 08:26:15 PM »
Headline from Wall Street Journal
EV Stocks NIO and Tesla Are Falling Again. It's Not the Companies' Fault.
Barron's


Unhappy financial markets... US Bond yields top 1.5% - horror!! (I remember paying 15% on me mortgage way back when (I had a house)).

But I can't resist...

Tesla p/e Ratio  below 1,000
Doomed, doomed. we're all doomed!!

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6773 on: March 05, 2021, 12:12:50 PM »
When Covid hit, GM upped their cash on hand to $50bn.  The thing is, it was not for growth, for new models, for product launches or for any other normal thing you would rise cash for.

It was to avoid going illiquid and then bankrupt.

The markets didn't really complain.  Yet they try to hold Tesla to the same conditions and it just won't wash.  Right now GM and others are able to show YOY growth which is quite marked.  But only because the loss of business was so bad a year ago.

Capital markets are like everywhere else.  20% are leaders and 80% are foot soldiers.  But not all of the leaders are that way because they really know what is going on, a big chunk of them just got lucky once or twice and that's all they needed.  Because capital markets reward success in a far greater margin than they punish failure.

It makes for an extremely schizophrenic business.

Not much point in trying to second guess Tesla right now.  April is early enough to find out just how much Phase2 of Shanghai has changed the production and it will be September or October before we see the fruit of Texas and Berlin.

I am very interested in Berlin right now because I'd love to know just how much of the silence we see about progress is down to inside fit out and readying of the production lines and how much of it is down to inability to progress due to a lack of final permits to complete.

Texas, as ever, is going like an express train.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

blu_ice

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 101
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6774 on: March 05, 2021, 03:24:27 PM »
I expect Berlin to move Tesla's European position from a American niche automaker to one of the local big boys. German cars have a high quality brand whereas American cars do not. Also the price tag is likely to change from luxury to upper mid-range.

Texas will bring Cyber Truck and Semi.

Interesting times ahead.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6775 on: March 05, 2021, 03:56:10 PM »
...  Right now GM and others are able to show YOY growth which is quite marked.  But only because the loss of business was so bad a year ago. ...

Well, not so much, in Germany. With only two major exceptions. ;)

“$TSLA car registrations in Germany (the biggest growth market in Europe) is up 180%. Yep, that is 180%. “
https://twitter.com/squawksquare/status/1367081748807483393
⬇️ Click to embiggen.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2921
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 59
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6776 on: March 05, 2021, 05:20:09 PM »
Tesla partners with nickel mine amid shortage fears
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56288781

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6777 on: March 05, 2021, 07:36:42 PM »
Tesla partners with nickel mine amid shortage fears
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56288781

The outcome of the "call me" tweet from Musk?
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6778 on: March 05, 2021, 08:04:34 PM »
Tesla partners with nickel mine amid shortage fears
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56288781

From the article:
Quote
Tesla will be involved in a "technical and industrial partnership" to help with product and sustainability standards along with taking nickel for its battery production, according to the agreement.

It will play the role of technical consultant in the design and improvement of the manufacturing process.

Thursday's agreement called for reinforced environmental standards and set a target for the mining complex to be carbon neutral by 2040. ...

 8)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10841
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4020
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6779 on: March 05, 2021, 09:41:24 PM »
Just when Cyclone Niran is on its way...

Quote
Tesla is listed as a “technical partner” in a deal to take over a very large and controversial nickel mine in New Caledonia.
 
Lately, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been pushing for nickel producers to boost production as he expects the resource could become a bottleneck for battery production. It’s likely the reason why the automaker decided to get involved, as one of the world’s biggest and most controversial nickel mines is changing hands.

New Caledonia is a small French territory in the southwest Pacific Ocean, and it is believed to own as much as 25% of the world’s nickel. It is home to the Goro mine owned and operated by mining giant Vale.

They took over the mine in 2007 in a multibillion-dollar buyout in hopes to ramp up production to 40,000 tonnes of nickel per year. However, the project has been plagued with problems from conflicts with locals that led to sabotage to environmental spills due to the use of high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) technology.

The mine ended up losing money for Vale as production was unstable and its future was uncertain. The company has been on the hunt for a buyer for over a year, but the sale is controversial in a nation that has been debating becoming independent from France and where nickel is one of their main sources of wealth.

After much negotiations and debate, on Thursday a deal was reached that will see Vale sell the mine to a consortium consisting of employees of the mine as well as three regional provinces and the Singaporean commodity trading group Trafigura that will own 19% of the mine.

Interestingly, Tesla is named as “technical and industrial partnership” in the deal, and the automaker is expected to help with product and sustainability standards at the mine. As part of the deal, Tesla is also expected to buy nickel from the mine in order to secure supply for its battery cell production.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6780 on: March 06, 2021, 02:00:02 AM »
You know you’re a threat and the shorts are desperate when TSLAQ tries to fake your death and get it trending on Twitter.
Quote
Foldedgoose (@Foldedgoose) 3/5/21, 12:29 PM  
TSLAQ's trying to spread fake new that Elon died? Just when you thought they couldn't get lower.

< Hopefully that is a sign the stock hit bottom too, and they loaded up on the short shares.
https://twitter.com/foldedgoose/status/1367890112890159105
Images at the link.

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/5/21, 5:37 PM
 ::)
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1367967590597816320
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6781 on: March 06, 2021, 04:11:18 PM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/5/21, 8:57 PM
If you want the Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta downloaded to your car, let us know. Doubling beta program size now with 8.2 & probably 10X size with 8.3. Still be careful, but it’s getting mature.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1368017749851598850

Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 3/6/21, 1:15 AM
If you would like FSD Beta, you can sign up using the official survey here:

surveymonkey.com/r/DXYL7LK

@elonmusk will personally review the responses and send the beta to whoever he thinks will be the best tester
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1368082795512303616
< I learned so much about myself filling out this form, whew!! 


====
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 3/4/21, 8:21 PM
Autopilot, we’re out of paper towels. Take me to Sams’s Club.
➡️ https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1367646346878971904
2 min. timelapse at the link. Many traffic lights and left turns. I note the camera-based FSD is unbothered by the many long, dark shadows across the road.

====
The only people frustrated by the TSLA stock price are short term traders. Long term investors are stoked to be able to buy more at such a discount.

From earlier:
Oppenheimer Raises Tesla TSLA Price Target to $1,036 on Manufacturing Advantages
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/oppenheimer-raises-tesla-tsla-price-target-to-1-036-on-manufacturing-advantages

Tesla Jumps As Oppenheimer Boosts Price Target to $1,036
Production cost cuts, self-driving advances and improving China sales should continue to provide a tailwind for Tesla shares, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch argued Wednesday.
Mar 2, 2021
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tesla-gains-oppenheimer-price-target-to-street-high-1036
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6782 on: March 07, 2021, 04:43:20 PM »
Despite Japan’s push for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles over battery-electric, there are only about 3,600 fuel cell cars there. Shipping from Tesla Shanghai has allowed Tesla to markedly reduce their car’s price in Japan.

Is Ford stealing sales from Tesla ? | Tesla is about to dominate in Japan | Tesla secures nickel
Published on Mar 7, 2021

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6783 on: March 08, 2021, 01:40:52 PM »
Tesla Model S Plaid builds spotted ready to leave Fremont Factory, deliveries imminent
Quote
Deliveries of the new Tesla Model S Plaid are imminent after sightings of the flagship sedan show the all-electric vehicle is ready to roll out of the Fremont Factory in Northern California and onto haulers for customer delivery.

At least 30 Model S builds were spotted within the confines of Tesla’s Fremont Factory, some showing Yoke steering wheels and others showing a regular steering wheel. Builds with the normal steering wheel are believed to be Dual Motor Long Range All-Wheel Drive powertrains, while the Yoke has been tied to the Plaid and Plaid+ variants of the vehicle.

After Tesla halted production lines of both the S and X in December 2020, speculation that the vehicles would undergo a routine refresh spread through the automotive community. It was ultimately confirmed just a month later during the Tesla Q4 2020 Earnings Call. The details regarding the company’s rejuvenation to the Model S have slowly leaked their way onto social media.

Of all of the modifications Tesla made to the Model S and Model X, the Yoke Steering wheel is arguably the most discussed feature. The modified steering design has not been ruled illegal or in violation of the NHTSA’s Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, which the agency confirmed to Teslarati earlier this week.

GabeinCal’s video of the Model S is available below. There are also some good shots of the Yoke Steering Wheel toward the beginning, and another flyover of the Giga Press can be spotted as well.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-fremont-sighting-march-2021-video/amp/



Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/8/21, 7:00 AM
Still many fine details to address, but the final product will be fantastic. There’s nothing else even close.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1368894470163369986
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6784 on: March 08, 2021, 03:56:47 PM »
“Elon Musk has a lot of activity in Texas right now.  It wouldn’t surprise me if Musk is thinking about starting his own power company.”

Tesla Is Plugging a Secret Mega-Battery Into the Texas Grid
Quote
While Tesla’s focus on energy often takes a back seat to the increasingly competitive business of manufacturing and selling electric cars, Musk and his executive team continue to highlight energy as a key part of their growth.

“I think long-term Tesla Energy will be roughly the same size as Tesla Automotive,” Musk said during an earnings call in July 2020. “The energy business is collectively bigger than the automotive business.”

Elon Musk is getting into the Texas power market, with previously unrevealed construction of a gigantic battery connected to an ailing electric grid that nearly collapsed last month. The move marks Tesla Inc.’s first major foray into the epicenter of the U.S. energy economy.

A Tesla subsidiary registered as Gambit Energy Storage LLC is quietly building a more than 100 megawatt energy storage project in Angleton, Texas, a town roughly 40 miles south of Houston. A battery that size could power about 20,000 homes on a hot summer day. Workers at the site kept equipment under cover and discouraged onlookers, but a Tesla logo could be seen on a worker’s hard hat and public documents helped confirm the company’s role.

Tesla Energy could represent up to 30% of the company’s total revenue by the 2030s, up from roughly 6% today, according to analyst Alexander Potter of Piper Sandler. His research has highlighted the potential for Autobidder, a software platform Tesla designed for utilities. Tesla Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn has described Autobidder as an “autonomous energy market participation system that does high-frequency trading.” Potter has a $1,200 price target on Tesla stock, the highest on Wall Street.

“Tesla’s energy storage business on a percentage basis is growing faster than their car business, and it’s only going to accelerate,” said Daniel Finn-Foley, head of energy storage at Wood MacKenzie Power and Renewables. “They are absolutely respected as a player, and they are competing aggressively on price.” … 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is-plugging-a-secret-mega-battery-into-the-texas-grid
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10841
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4020
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6785 on: March 08, 2021, 07:05:59 PM »
Has anyone got any data more useful than the usual blah blah on the sales of the Tesla Roof.

(I've seen the blah blah about new varieties of tiles being tested).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

vox_mundi

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5183
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2633
  • Likes Given: 398
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6786 on: March 10, 2021, 02:12:43 AM »
Tesla: “Full Self-Driving beta” Isn’t Designed for Full Self-Driving
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/03/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-isnt-designed-for-full-self-driving/

The transparency site PlainSite recently published a pair of letters Tesla wrote to the California Department of Motor Vehicles in late 2020. The letters cast doubt on Elon Musk's optimistic timeline for the development of fully driverless technology.

https://www.plainsite.org/documents/242a2g/california-dmv-tesla-robotaxi--fsd-emails/

... In October, Tesla released what it called its "full self-driving beta" software to a few dozen Tesla owners. A few days ago, Musk announced plans to expand the program to more customers.

Given that the product is called "full self-driving," this might seem like the first step in Musk's three-step progression. After a few more months of testing, perhaps it will become reliable enough to operate without human supervision. That could allow Musk to make good on his latest optimistic timeline for Autopilot: in a December 2020 interview, Musk said he was "extremely confident" that Tesla vehicles would reach level 5 by the end of 2021.

But a letter Tesla sent to California regulators the same month had a different tone. Despite the "full self-driving" name, Tesla admitted it doesn't consider the current beta software suitable for fully driverless operation. The company said it wouldn't start testing "true autonomous features" until some unspecified point in the future.

... In Tesla's first response, sent in November, Tesla emphasized that the beta software had limited functionality. Tesla told state regulators that the software is "not capable of recognizing or responding" to "static objects and road debris, emergency vehicles, construction zones, large uncontrolled intersections with multiple incoming ways, occlusions, adverse weather, complicated or adversarial vehicles in the driving path, and unmapped roads."

In a December follow-up, Tesla added that "we expect the functionality to remain largely unchanged in a future, full release to the customer fleet." Tesla added that "we do not expect significant enhancements" that would "shift the responsibility for the entire dynamic driving task to the system." The system "will continue to be an SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance feature."

SAE level 2 is industry jargon for a driver-assistance systems that perform functions like lane-keeping and adaptive cruise control. By definition, level 2 systems require continual human oversight. Fully driverless systems—like the taxi service Waymo is operating in the Phoenix area—are considered level 4 systems.

... If Tesla is really going to achieve fully driverless operation in 2021, that doesn't leave much time to develop, test, and validate complex, safety-critical software. So it would be natural for customers to assume that the software Tesla named "Full Self Driving beta" is, in fact, a beta version of Tesla's long-awaited fully self-driving software. But in its communications with California officials, Tesla makes it clear that's not true.

... Perhaps Tesla will move faster than Waymo and it won't take another five years to achieve fully driverless operation. But customers considering whether to pay $10,000 for Tesla's full self-driving software package should certainly take Musk's optimistic timeline with a pinch of salt.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6787 on: March 10, 2021, 03:35:36 AM »
Has anyone got any data more useful than the usual blah blah on the sales of the Tesla Roof.

(I've seen the blah blah about new varieties of tiles being tested).

Below is the blah from the Q4 2020/earnings report. :) ⬇️
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6788 on: March 10, 2021, 04:00:39 AM »
—- FSD Beta
Assuming user approves warning & agrees to drive carefully, it will download latest QA-tested FSD “Beta” build as soon as car connects to wifi
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 9, 2021

Elon Musk explains Tesla’s FSD ‘Download Beta’ button and its expected release date
By Simon Alvarez March 9, 2021
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fsd-beta-download-button-release-date-elon-musk/

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/5/21, 11:08 PM
Beta V8.3 has literally ~1000 improvements. Will take time to QA internally before release probably in two or three weeks.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1368050830797021187

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/6/21, 5:35 PM
Due to high levels of demand for FSD Beta, adding “Download Beta” button to Service section of car display in ~10 days
Elon Musk:
Availability varies by region due to regulatory approval delays and/or Tesla internal development & testing.
Note: word “Beta” is used to reduce complacency in usage & set expectations appropriately. All software is first tested internally by Tesla simulation & QA drive teams.
< Canada going to be included this round or still a wait due to regulations?
Elon Musk:
Should be very soon. Many subtle differences between US & Canada roads, so harder than it seems.
<< The only difference driving in Canada is here we let people merge in without having to flip the bird. That and we deal with polar bears on the highway.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1368329387733512193

——
ARK Invest:
The probability that Tesla gets autonomous right, we believe, has increased from the 30% that we had in our last model.
Autonomous taxi networks combine Robotics, EVs, and AI — three S-curves coming together we think will cause highly profitable growth. Robotaxi profit margin will be 80%.  We believe earnings growth will be explosive.
So the model changes completely if Tesla gets autonomous right, and we think it will.


Cathie Wood on Market 'Broadening Out,' Tesla, Retail Investors
➡️https://youtu.be/xZeTORU_sjk

—- 2020 recap.  4-min Tesla video.
➡️ https://www.tesla.com/videos/2020-recap-thank-you
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6789 on: March 10, 2021, 04:15:34 AM »
——- China Superchargers
Tesla Hits New Milestone: Installs 6,000th Supercharger Stall in China
Quote
Tesla has reached another milestone in China by installing 6,000 Supercharger stalls. There are now over 760 branded charging stations covering 300+ cities located in mainland China to further enhance the Tesla ownership experience.

Tesla in China is facing unprecedented growth in demand for its vehicles. Customers are buying them very quickly, and about 150,000 Chinese-made Model 3s have already appeared on the roads of the country. This is why Tesla is putting a lot of effort into building out the Supercharger network.

Part of Tesla's plan is a new charger factory, which was opened in early February as the first batch of V3 piles rolled off the assembly line. China's own charger factory will help boost Tesla's charging network there. Having a wide network of charging stations is one of the most important criteria when choosing an electric vehicle, which will not only attract even more customers, but also give the company an exceptional competitive advantage in the New Energy Vehicle market. 
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-reaches-new-milestone-build-6-000-supercharger-stalls-in-china


—- Cybertruck update
Quote
< any update on Cybertruck first delivery date, cool features or options?
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/6/21, 6:35 PM
Update probably in Q2. Cybertruck will be built at Giga Texas, so focus right now is on getting that beast built.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1368344522413903872

—- Battery. power. out.
THREAD
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 3/7/21, 10:23 AM
Starting with cars made at Gigafactory Berlin, all Tesla vehicles will support power out as well as power in.
This will enable all Tesla vehicles to participate in energy markets using Tesla’s Virtual Power Plant and Autobidder software.
➡️ https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1368583025122967552
[ vid clip from Battery Day at the link ]
< Will we be able to retrofit our current vehicles??
WMC:  no
you don’t want to do it with the old batteries. it will make the pack degrade faster which is no fun for your car. you only want it with the new cells that are designed for this


—- GigaBerlin
 GIGABERLIN is started to assemble the Gigapress
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1367896577403203586
Photos at the link, drone vid clip in the reply.

Quote
what is the RTO (regenerative thermal oxidizer)?
The exhaust air of the paint shop is cleaned in this highly efficient process to 99.8% of environmentally harmful gases.
The hot purified air heats the incoming exhaust gases,the plant has a very low energy consumption 
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1368607551961567235
⬇️ Photo below.


—- EV Disruption
Despite $TSLA’s recent moves lower, @ARKInvest's @CathieDWood says her firm's confidence in the stock has moved higher.
➡️ https://twitter.com/cnbcclosingbell/status/1369033657273421828
90 sec clip at the link.  In 2018, ARK had forecast Tesla market share to go from 17% to 11% as other companies brought out their own EVs.  Instead, it went up to 20% — and 80% of the EV market in the US.  Also, over the weekend, Tesla offered FSD to anyone who wanted it and saw huge demand. Our confidence that Tesla will gain the lion”s share of the robotaxi market has increased as well.  So as you can imagine, our price targets have gone up considerably.

—-
⬇️ Below: U.S. luxury car market share by brand, sorted by most recent quarter.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6790 on: March 10, 2021, 12:31:13 PM »
Today we have a whole bunch of articles about a communication with California DMV stating that both AP and FSD are driver assistance systems and therefore L2.  They all make the claim that Tesla is not going to have FSD beyond L2 ever.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/amp35785277/tesla-fsd-california-self-driving/

Apparently California DMV listened to Musk talking about FSD as a L4 or L5 system and wrote to Tesla to remind them that they do not have a license for anything above L2.

Voilal, FSD beta, must pay attention and be repaired to take over... Whilst you train our new driver...

Personally I'm OK with this kind of warped reporting, because it creates a false sense of security for the competition.

Also, because when Tesla goes to apply for the license, it will have billions of miles of real world driving, without interventions, to back up the request.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6791 on: March 10, 2021, 01:20:12 PM »
About the “transparency” site plainsite:

HOW AARON GREENSPAN’S CHARITY PLAINSITE SILENCES CRITICS BY CYBERSTALKING
https://wholemars.net/aaron-greenspan/

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6792 on: March 11, 2021, 01:53:11 PM »
Tesla: “Full Self-Driving beta” Isn’t Designed for Full Self-Driving
SAE level 2 is industry jargon for a driver-assistance systems that perform functions like lane-keeping and adaptive cruise control. By definition, level 2 systems require continual human oversight. Fully driverless systems—like the taxi service Waymo is operating in the Phoenix area—are considered level 4 systems.

... If Tesla is really going to achieve fully driverless operation in 2021, that doesn't leave much time to develop, test, and validate complex, safety-critical software. So it would be natural for customers to assume that the software Tesla named "Full Self Driving beta" is, in fact, a beta version of Tesla's long-awaited fully self-driving software. But in its communications with California officials, Tesla makes it clear that's not true.

... Perhaps Tesla will move faster than Waymo and it won't take another five years to achieve fully driverless operation. But customers considering whether to pay $10,000 for Tesla's full self-driving software package should certainly take Musk's optimistic timeline with a pinch of salt.

OK so let's take apart the marketing BS and strip this down.

Tesla has a license for Level 2. End of story.  So Tesla can't offer anything other than Level 2. That means even if the software is level 3/4/5 capable, the driver must still be aware, watching the road and able to take over.

Tesla denotes this by the same system it has with AP where you simply have to be in touch with the wheel or touch one of the buttons.

That has absolutely Not One Single Thing to do with the capability of the system, the advanced functionality, whether or not it actually can drive the vehicle or not, what the training regime is or how capable the hardware/software/training environments are with the ability to grow into a Level 4 or Level 5 system.  Nor does it denote how long it will take to get there.

I will reiterate a post I made about this quite a while ago which goes into machine learning as opposed to human learning.

Google decided to create a video game playing AI.  It took them 3 years to build the AI to the point of "feature complete".  During that 3 years Google had been recording, categorising and tagging video game play from some of the best players on the net.

Once the AI was feature complete, google took the 3 years worth of categorised and tagged data and fed it into the AI.  It then let the AI loose with the initial data and left it to learn at machine speed form the initial start point.

3 DAYS later Google had a viable game playing AI.

What is Tesla doing?  Tesla is using the onboard hardware to drive the vehicle.  In order to do so, it has to read the available video and radar data in real time and project a "drive path" through the roads, other road users, traffic, obstructions and 1001  other edge cases.  But the Tesla computer is far more powerful than the effort needed for that so the computer is constantly presenting alternate paths and alternate interpretations of the objects it sees around it.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch as they say, Tesla is building a data monster called DoJo.  It is an AI training computer which is designed specifically to be able to accept all the data from these FSD vehicles and even all the other Tesla vehicles where it is running in shadow mode and comparing it's performance with the actual decisions of the human drivers.

Where DoJo can auto label, it is madly crunching its way through the humungous amount of data being produced. Where there is doubt, DoJo will throw out images and decisions to humans to analyse, categorise and tag.  They will then be fed back into DoJo to continue the monstrous generation of data needed to take an AI child and turn it into an AI adult, capable of driving your vehicle.

Even today we are seeing that multiple paths are being stored locally and then used on a second, or even third, run without need for the software to be refreshed.  The local system can then store this "known" decision path and ditch the others.  It will then be forwarded to the central system as the correct way to handle the specific situation.

This is only going to get faster.  Clearly Beta 8.1 hit a speed bump where data in DoJo plus AI software tuning met a sweet spot where enough edge cases had been conquered for the software to be rolled out to a bigger audience.

There is only one reason for needing that bigger audience. DATA.  And they are going to get it.  Reams of it and DoJo is going to eat it and feed it into the AI training.

If we think machine learning speeds, once FSD beta x.x has enough learning data to consume. Then, quite literally, it could move from Beta to R1.0 in a matter of days.

When that is done, Tesla will have billions of miles of actual real life driving where users did not have to intervene and in all conditions all over the US, sight unseen if need be.  Which will be overwhelming evidence to allow certification at higher levels of autonomy, 3/4/5.

Then we can talk about whether Waymo geofenced "driverless" services, which give you the service they are capable of giving, within the area they are capable of giving it in, is really level 4 or is more of a level 3.5.

There is no doubt that when Tesla FSD finally comes out of Beta it will truly be Level 4 and, if not Level5, will very rapidly reach the point of being level 5.

FSD being Level 2, today, is nothing more than legality and politics!  It has nothing at all to do with how good or capable FSD is, nor whether it will remain level 2 forever, which to me is nothing more than FUD.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6793 on: March 11, 2021, 02:53:20 PM »
Comparing Waymo’s capability to Tesla’s is a joke.

I’ve posted numerous examples above of FSD Beta flawlessly executing tricky left turns with lots of conflicting traffic.
But Waymo just gives up — even LIDAR can’t make up for its laughingly rudimental software.
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 3/10/21, 9:01 PM
Here’s what a Waymo disengagement looks like   
➡️ https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1369830688426389510
Clip:  Waymo waiting for Left turn at traffic light; car sees three lanes of oncoming traffic,  says Nope — Driver, Take the Wheel!

Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 3/4/21, 3:38 PM
People, we joked about how small Waymo’s geofence was.
Then actually went to chandler and realized it doesn’t even go everywhere in the geofence!
See the blue areas? That’s the only place where it can come pick you up.
It’s a total joke, and you’re a moron if you don’t get it
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1367575171993796608
[⬇️ Image below.]
 
Elon Musk:
 … it until you make it
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6794 on: March 12, 2021, 09:34:34 PM »
—- One more Waymo vid
Quote
When a Waymo vehicle gets stuck, a teleoperator can send a command to help it get un-stuck.
It will then circle the parking lot until the Roadside Assistance van arrives to take it back home.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1369847737278078980
~ it will then refuse to go to the same spot again, asking users to walk somewhere else instead
[ 2-min clip at the tweet.  Full vid here:
Waymo Self Driving: TWO Roadside Assistance Takeovers and MUCH More! | JJRicks Rides With Waymo #21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uy3DuUOLhUE&feature=youtu.be

James Stephenson:
Next time some Tesla hater tells me Waymo has already achieved Level 5, I’m going to find this tweet again, send it to them, and say:  “Oh yeah, Totes McGoats. Definitely. Ask any of the people who drive Waymos professionally— they’ll tell you!”  ;D ;D
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1370106877636452353 

—-
Tesla Semi Spotted on Fremont Test Track, Hints Production Could Be Imminent
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-semi-spots-in-fremont-test-track-hints-production-may-start-shortly

—-
Tesla in talks with India's Tata Power for EV charging infrastructure - report
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2B415U

—-
Giga Shanghai is having a job [fair] on Saturday March the 20th for production, quality, logistics and security workers. Hiring has been continuous.
https://twitter.com/kelvinyang7/status/1370284502891778051

—-
NEWS: In a newly released Chinese car quality ranking, the Model 3 received the least amount of complaints (0.7 [per 10,000]) and earned the #1 spot.
Link:   https://t.co/VRmfb2co8p
https://twitter.com/sawyermerritt/status/1369815372694708225

—-
Quote
Revenue (2020)
Apple — $275 billion
Volkswagen — $306 billion
Tesla — $31 billion

Profit (2020)
Apple — $60 billion
Volkswagen — $12.2 billion
Tesla — $721 million
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1370320197148545025

—-
Quote
Jeremy Arnold:
Everyone has a take on @elonmusk. Mine is that he deserves a fair shake. No more, no less.
Wherever you see him on the hero-villain spectrum, I encourage you to read this and sit with the implications.
https://twitter.com/jdotarnold/status/1369301770749546507

I Talked to Elon Musk about Journalism and the Blood Emeralds Story
Jeremy Arnold Mar 9
https://savingjournalism.substack.com/p/i-talked-to-elon-musk-about-journalism


—- GF RAIL SPUR
Quote
"A routing for a new 2.5-mile spur to connect the Gigafactory to rail has been identified. This one project would enable the elimination of 36,400 truck trips a year on I-80 through Sparks, Reno, and northern California"

 The additional infrastructure cost for the rail spur is nominal
- $5 million according to this report 
https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1370146051089297412
⬇️ Image below.  Click to embiggen.
Transport of raw materials such as lithium makes sense by rail.  And 52 truckloads of auto parts (round trip) occur every night between Fremont and Sparks — but, better for profit and customer relations if Tesla fulfills customers’ semi orders before filling out its own fleet.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6795 on: March 13, 2021, 01:43:49 PM »
I have Just spent a few hours inside the deep links from the Jeremy Arnold article.  Especially around the Thai Cave rescue and the response of Musk.

Also, I believe, the truth had a very heavy bearing on the LA libel case result and why no further libel cases were brought up in other jurisdictions.

It has been an absolutely fascinating read.  I don't think it has changed my opinion of Musk that much.  I always thought we'd be more like Oil and Water, but it has confirmed many of my opinions about how he views the world, what kind of person he is and the fact that the very largest majority of the press have already pre judged him and wouldn't write the whole truth with a shotgun to their head.

But thanks for that Sig, I have taken the step of saving the docs to PDF because these are treasures to be kept.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6796 on: March 13, 2021, 03:01:02 PM »
Quote
But thanks for that Sig, I have taken the step of saving the docs to PDF because these are treasures to be kept.

If you are referring to https://wholemars.net/aaron-greenspan/
Omar has more chapters to write, so stay tuned.

The story continues even now:
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 3/12/21, 9:48 PM
Counsel for Omar Qazi and Smick have filed a motion to dismiss and anti-SLAPP motion to dismiss Aaron Greenspan's illegal SLAPP-suit. If the motion prevails, Greenspan will be forced to pay all legal costs associated with his SLAPP-suit.
heyamifat.com/tesla/aaron-gr… [ https://t.co/KEiQvXYSwy ]
 
   —-
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 3/12/21, 10:30 PM
It is so ordered.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1370577944456798210
At the link:  Court document: complaints against Smick & Qasi are dismissed with prejudice, Greenspan must pay Smick’s court costs.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6797 on: March 13, 2021, 03:09:07 PM »
Whole Mars Catalog:
Will Tesla interior camera be used to detect phone usage/sleeping Drivers using FSD’s Beta?
this tweet from Elon suggests it could be coming
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/6/21, 5:35 PM
Due to high levels of demand for FSD Beta, adding “Download Beta” button to Service section of car display in ~10 days
Elon Musk:
Availability varies by region due to regulatory approval delays and/or Tesla internal development & testing.
Note: word “Beta” is used to reduce complacency in usage & set expectations appropriately. All software is first tested internally by Tesla simulation & QA drive teams.

Elon Musk:
FSD Beta has now been expanded to ~2000 owners & we’ve also revoked beta where drivers did not pay sufficient attention to the road. No accidents to date.
Next significant release will be in April. Going with pure vision — not even using radar. This is the way to real-world AI.


< "revoked beta where drivers did not pay sufficient attention to the road" I'm curious how this was monitored and what was considered "sufficient." Not a criticism. A genuine curiosity.
<< Driver Facing Camera monitors where drivers are looking. It would detect if a Beta User was looking down at, for example, a phone or laptop for significant amounts of time. Definitely dangerous to do as a beta tester.
Elon Musk:
Yes
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1370525365358243842
 
—-
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog:
oH mY gOd WhErEs ThE bUtToN

< 10 days to implement a software button? Tesla acts like a legacy car manufacturer already  ;D
https://twitter.com/alicepeters00/status/1370721282162110467
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2317
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 177
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6798 on: March 13, 2021, 05:06:00 PM »
If you are referring to https://wholemars.net/aaron-greenspan/

No it was the blood emerald and pedo guy thing.  It didn't change anything about my views on Musk but the massive amount of additional information I got about just how much SpaceX and Tesla put into that cave rescue, asked for, not unbidden, for Zero recognition other than the whole pedo guy thing, was enlightening.

It is my final opinion that Unsworth is a typical loutish British loudmouthed dick who opened mount before engaging a braincell and was not in the loop.  I would not have used those terms but I'd certainly have called him many other things.  Brave he may be, discrete, sensible and understanding he is not.

I don't condone Musk but I very much understand him.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 19072
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 853
  • Likes Given: 324
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6799 on: March 15, 2021, 08:30:04 PM »
Volkswagen, the biggest automaker in the world, is taking directions from Tesla and following their lead into the future.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2686.msg303298.html#msg303298
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.