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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12250 on: October 09, 2024, 08:13:01 PM »
* Tesla’s CIO, Nagesh Saldi (who reported directly to E. Musk, and built Tesla’s data centers in TX/NY), quit 5 days ahead of "Cybercab day”.

* Daniel Ho (who reported directly to E. Musk, and served as Head of TSLA's Vehicle Programs) quit 12 days ahead of "Cybercab day".

* Jos Dings (who reported directly to E. Musk, and served as Director of Public Policy / Business Development) quit 10 days ahead of "Cybercab day".

* David Zhang (who reported directly to E. Musk, and served as the company's Model S and Model X program manager) also quit 10 days ahead of "Cybercab day".

Interesting!

https://x.com/gordonjohnson19/status/1843961296204533762

Gordon Johnson is a 🤡, and 10 days before “Cybercab day” is the end of the quarter.  Duh.

Quote
🦋Diana🦋
 
So we were in a Tesla & Friends space tonight chatting about the McDonald’s 10/10 theories and Gordon Johnson came in.  I’ve never been in a space with him before, and I was shocked he came into a 20 person space to start an argument over FSD with average Tesla owners.  Dan O’Dowd was incredibly respectful to talk to [compared to] Gordon. 
 
We are just average people. This guy is on TV and does stock stuff.  We are just regular people who need to use tax incentives to buy a damn car.  Very much didn’t appreciate the drop in just to start shit instead of talking to us like people. 
 
Pick on someone your own size they say, he should try that.
 
10/3/24, https://x.com/99_colorado/status/1841698671991115788
 
< He can bash FSD all he wants but he is wrong. I love that it drives me safely and I never want to drive without it 🥰.
 
<< Chris Daubitz
 
Same. I'm a paralyzed quadriplegic. FSD is the best thing since Velcro, zippers or sliced bread!
 
I can actually enjoy my driving now or not driving that is!
10/3/24, https://x.com/chrisdaubitz/status/1841830527994597871
 
< how is this possible?
Chris Daubitz
Push down for [go,] forward for [brake] on the left hand control, my hand slides into tri-pin for steering. Every once in awhile I get a notifications and says I have a hands-free cheat device LOL but not very often. Arms work just no finger function.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2024, 08:19:21 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Espen

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12251 on: October 09, 2024, 08:36:28 PM »
Who is this guy?

Have a ice day!

nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12252 on: October 09, 2024, 08:52:40 PM »
* Tesla’s CIO, Nagesh Saldi (who reported directly to E. Musk, and built Tesla’s data centers in TX/NY), quit 5 days ahead of "Cybercab day”.

* Daniel Ho (who reported directly to E. Musk, and served as Head of TSLA's Vehicle Programs) quit 12 days ahead of "Cybercab day".

* Jos Dings (who reported directly to E. Musk, and served as Director of Public Policy / Business Development) quit 10 days ahead of "Cybercab day".

* David Zhang (who reported directly to E. Musk, and served as the company's Model S and Model X program manager) also quit 10 days ahead of "Cybercab day".

Interesting!

https://x.com/gordonjohnson19/status/1843961296204533762

Gordon Johnson is a 🤡, and 10 days before “Cybercab day” is the end of the quarter.  Duh.


Forget about Gordon Johnson, why do you seem to imply so many top level execs leaving the company few days before the event is “normal” or irrelevant, associated to end of quarter…

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12253 on: October 09, 2024, 10:07:20 PM »
Forget about Gordon Johnson, why do you seem to imply so many top level execs leaving the company few days before the event is “normal” or irrelevant, associated to end of quarter…

Probably because Elon just told everyone they are going totally "hardcore" immediately after the launch and he expects 12 hour days and 7 days a week.  All over again.

You should read both Liftoff and Reentry to get an idea of what that is like for the people who work for Elon.

Elon looks at life as work first, family and pleasure after.  He is committed and understands what I am about to say next as the only way.

Commitment.  Eggs and Ham.  The Chicken makes a contribution.  The Pig makes a commitment.

Elon only wants commitment and just about everyone can only take it for so long. Commitment requires sacrifice and people only have so many sacrifices in them.
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zenith

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12254 on: October 09, 2024, 10:39:43 PM »
Probably because Elon just told everyone they are going totally "hardcore" immediately after the launch and he expects 12 hour days and 7 days a week.  All over again.

You should read both Liftoff and Reentry to get an idea of what that is like for the people who work for Elon.

Elon looks at life as work first, family and pleasure after.  He is committed and understands what I am about to say next as the only way.

Commitment.  Eggs and Ham.  The Chicken makes a contribution.  The Pig makes a commitment.

Elon only wants commitment and just about everyone can only take it for so long. Commitment requires sacrifice and people only have so many sacrifices in them.

how many kids does elon have? i'm sure they'll appreciate his work first, family second ethos (most people work to support their family, not to supersede it). you're describing a despicable character but you obviously think this is a graphic novel or hollywood movie and elon is tony stark or some other superhero.

a 12 year old grandpa is a strange thing. 
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Rascal Dog

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12255 on: October 09, 2024, 11:49:38 PM »
how many kids does elon have?

A whole lot, by a list of different women, only a few of which he married. The official total is 11, plus one that died from SIDs.

I doubt if they get much daddy time at all.

John Batteen

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12256 on: October 10, 2024, 12:44:18 AM »
It is possible to be committed to a cause without killing yourself for that cause.  In fact, I would argue, it is not in the long-term best interest of a cause to run yourself ragged for it.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12257 on: October 10, 2024, 02:34:56 AM »
He is on the spectrum has what was called Asperger syndrome  and gets hyper obsessed by stuff.
To him it feels totally  normal.
He probably finds nomies strange not naturally understanding that they do not have the same capacity for focus.
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12258 on: October 10, 2024, 04:00:07 PM »
It is possible to be committed to a cause without killing yourself for that cause.  In fact, I would argue, it is not in the long-term best interest of a cause to run yourself ragged for it.

I agree totally I could not work for Elon.  But I just don't think that with the people that using the people who could work for him the things that he creates are somehow bad.

Nobody holds his employees hostage, they are free to leave and are very highly prized by other companies so it is not that they are stuck there with no other option.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12259 on: October 10, 2024, 04:02:33 PM »
how many kids does elon have?

A whole lot, by a list of different women, only a few of which he married. The official total is 11, plus one that died from SIDs.

I doubt if they get much daddy time at all.

He isn't the first and won't be the last that don't give a lot of daddy time.

But if you are a child growing up without a lot of daddy time what is the better consolation?  Dad prefers the pub to me or dad is working his ass of on several world changing projects?

I know which one I prefer if I can't have dad time.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12260 on: October 10, 2024, 05:45:18 PM »
Who is this guy?

Try watching the original conversation (the first ten minutes or so of it, anyway), rather than Sky News’ hysterics, which takes things Musk said in jest and treats them as though he is saying them seriously.

Elon Musk
Off-the-cuff conversation from yesterday
 
Quote
Tucker Carlson
 
Elon Musk is all in.
 
(0:00) Elon Musk Is All in on Donald Trump
(6:35) Providing Starlink to Victims of Hurricane Helene
(9:22) If Trump Loses, This Is the Last Election
(21:49) The Epstein and Diddy Client List
(33:38) Vaccines
(35:49) The Movement to Decriminalize Crime
(50:22) Gavin Newsom
(53:11) Europe’s Declining Birthrate
(57:02) We Need Religion
(1:08:04) Why Is There So Much Anti-Human Messaging?
(1:19:33) AI and the Woke Mind Virus
(1:43:01) Musk’s Role in a Trump Administration
10/7/24, ➡️  https://x.com/tuckercarlson/status/1843375397024485778
« Last Edit: October 10, 2024, 06:54:04 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12261 on: October 10, 2024, 05:52:58 PM »
Forget about Gordon Johnson, why do you seem to imply so many top level execs leaving the company few days before the event is “normal” or irrelevant, associated to end of quarter…

- The robotaxi event was originally scheduled for 8/8.  They could well have put in the paperwork for leaving end of quarter based on that.
- Project goal reached after years of hard work, time for a break.
- Stock vesting dates.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2024, 06:08:15 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Rascal Dog

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12262 on: October 10, 2024, 07:50:56 PM »

He isn't the first and won't be the last that don't give a lot of daddy time.

But if you are a child growing up without a lot of daddy time what is the better consolation?  Dad prefers the pub to me or dad is working his ass of on several world changing projects?

I know which one I prefer if I can't have dad time.

Some of Elon's projects are positive, some are negative. Which project will matter more in 30 years? I have not a clue.

I'd hate to have a dad like Elon. Just as much as the dad in the pub.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12263 on: October 10, 2024, 11:57:43 PM »
The link for tonight’s Tesla Robotaxi event:
Quote
Tesla
The future will be streamed live
10/10, 7pm PT x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
10/9/24, ➡️   https://x.com/tesla/status/1843922599765590148
 
Spoiler: Amazing lighted drone performance has been seen undergoing testing.

=======
 
—- NEWS: Tesla Semi exceeds expectations in 3,000 mile DHL trial
Quote
Over this past summer we saw Tesla testing the Semi with PepsiCo, Walmart, Costco, Sysco and US Foods, and others. While we didn’t see a DHL branded Semi travelling along the roads of California, the company did apparently trial the Semi for a two-week period over the summer, and the testing exceeded their expectations.

During the two-week trial, the Tesla Semi averaged 1.72 kWh/mile while operating at average speeds over 50mph (80km/h) for over half of the time it was on the road, according to DHL. This figure is in line with the “less than 2 kWh/mile” Tesla advertises the Semi’s efficiency as and matches the more recent estimates provided by Semi program manager Dan Preistley at the IAA Transportation show in Hanover, Germany last month.

DHL said that one specific test saw the Semi cover 390 miles (625km) while fully loaded with a gross combined weight of 75,000lbs (34 metric tons). …

DHL says the trial was a success and they are now planning on how to best integrate the Semi into its logistics network, as Tesla prepares for full-scale production of the Semi in 2026 at its plant currently under construction in Nevada.
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-semi-exceeds-expectations-in-3000-mile-trial-with-dhl/

—-
Tesla Semi Factory - Ground-level view of how Tesla builds the machine that builds the machine.
10/5/24, ➡️ https://x.com/hinrichszane/status/1842642960405692506
1 min. 😲  Placing roof sections, without a crane.

Quote
Zanegler
38 Tesla Semi’s Parked Outside the Prototype Factory - These things are replicating themselves like a virus. …
  —
I think a delivery to one or more new customers is imminent. I have to believe PepsiCo has their 100 allotment.
10/5/24, ➡️  https://x.com/hinrichszane/status/1842708423361913311
 1 min.
    —-
Quote
Tesla Semi Factory Walls are Going Up!
 
October 9, 2024 Giga Nevada - Unreal progress at the Tesla high-volume semi factory construction site. Tesla is using a new first-principles method on this project. This is completely different that that employed at Giga Texas. This process avoids the use of expensive cranes.
 
   https://youtu.be/qMfXULPJ-74&feature=youtu.be
  
10/10/24, https://x.com/hinrichszane/status/1844230790881972675
⬇️  Screencap below.
 
 
—- Cybertruck news
CANADA
Tesla Cybertruck now eligible for $10K business rebate in BC, federal $10K rebate also coming soon
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-cybertruck-now-eligible-for-10k-business-rebate-in-bc-federal-10k-rebate-also-coming-soon/

 
—- NEWS: The Tesla Model Y is very close to becoming the #1 bestselling vehicle in the U.S. for the first time ever, according to new data from Experian.
Quote
Through Q2, Model Y had 2.8% share, its highest share ever (up from 2.6% in Q1), and just a hair below the Toyota RAV4.
 
The Model Y is already outselling the Ford F-150 (both the ICE & EV version).
 
The Model Y was the bestselling car in the world in 2023, but it has yet to take the #1 spot in the U.S., but that could soon change😎
 
Source: wolfstreet.com/2024/09/20/tes…
9/20/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1837218614669365413
⬇️ Graph below.

Quote
The Tesla Model Y is already the best-selling vehicle in the world, and is about to becoming the best-selling vehicle overall in the U.S. for the first time. An EV has never held the #1 spot. Not enough people are talking about this. This is incredible.
 
This speaks to how incredible of a product the Model Y is:
• #1 best-selling car overall in the world
• #1 most American-made car
• #1 best-selling car by revenue in the world (~$50B in 2023)
• About to become the #1 best-selling vehicle in the U.S.
• Lifetime emissions are lower than those of a comparable ICE vehicle after just 3 years of ownership
• One of the safest cars ever engineered. Top Safety Pick+ by IIHS & received the highest overall score among any vehicle tested under Euro NCAP
• Total cost per mile of $0.70, on par with Honda CR-V & Toyota RAV4 (5 years, 60k miles)
• Gets better over time with over-the-air software updates
9/23/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1838281983958425909
« Last Edit: October 11, 2024, 12:06:23 AM by Sigmetnow »
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zenith

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12264 on: October 11, 2024, 12:49:33 AM »
Quote
The Tesla Model Y is already the best-selling vehicle in the world, and is about to becoming the best-selling vehicle overall in the U.S. for the first time. An EV has never held the #1 spot. Not enough people are talking about this. This is incredible.
 
This speaks to how incredible of a product the Model Y is:
• #1 best-selling car overall in the world
• #1 most American-made car
• #1 best-selling car by revenue in the world (~$50B in 2023)
• About to become the #1 best-selling vehicle in the U.S.
• Lifetime emissions are lower than those of a comparable ICE vehicle after just 3 years of ownership
• One of the safest cars ever engineered. Top Safety Pick+ by IIHS & received the highest overall score among any vehicle tested under Euro NCAP
• Total cost per mile of $0.70, on par with Honda CR-V & Toyota RAV4 (5 years, 60k miles)
• Gets better over time with over-the-air software updates
9/23/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1838281983958425909

the united states isn't the world and frankly nobody gives a shit. the rich, who used to buy teslas, certainly don't. the vast majority of the world can't afford them, they're made like garbage and they're unaffordable to keep operating - certainly beyond their battery lifespan.

there are already tuners dropping big block ice engines in teslas that have been written off (battery replacement costs) and drag racing them. tesla plaids suck against tuner ice cars in drag races anyway, their initial torque is easily overcome.

somebody needs to make a practical, low maintenance electric/hybrid car/suv for the masses that just performs the way it's required/advertised to perform.

halving the gas/diesel consumption across the board is far more valuable than any 0-60 time.

Where is reality? Can you show it to me? - Heinz von Foerster

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12265 on: October 11, 2024, 02:04:15 AM »
I have been reading a lot of BS on X about Elon is only supporting Trump to stay out of jail.

Well Frivolous lawsuits have consequences and the outcome of todays Appellate court hearing for Tump's Fraud case may cool the ardour of the Lawfare lawyers by a large chunk

Have a listen.  It's classic.

https://www.tiktok.com/@teameffujoe/video/7423942053270261035
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zenith

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12266 on: October 11, 2024, 03:01:54 AM »
I have been reading a lot of BS on X about Elon is only supporting Trump to stay out of jail.

nobody gives a shit except people like you. that's just a fact. the wealthy are interested in the mustang gtd and c8 zr1 nurburgring times and whether their investment will appreciate.

the average person is concerned about getting through their day, meeting their needs/wants and not having an idealistic monkey on their back.

if it's not easily accessible and convenient then fogetaboutit. nobody cares. 

people don't care about elon, except the people that care about trump and might care about elon jumping for joy on the stage. they're clowns, elon is one of the biggest welfare queens in the history of the world.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12267 on: October 11, 2024, 05:38:35 AM »
Quote
The worlds top  selling car not just the USA.
https://fiatgroupworld.com /2024/06/16/the-worlds-top-500-best-selling-cars-in-2023/

Oil burning hybrids are a dead end .
Even burning oil in a modern generation plant and using it in an ev is lower in carbon emissions than burning oil for propulsion can ever be even as a hybrid .
About 95% of a EV propulsion system is recyclable. Over time the carbon dept of constructing evs will go down . Burning oil for propulsion will never overcome the laws of thermodynamics explosions for motive force will always use  more energy per km traveled then EVs.
 
Quote
they're unaffordable to keep operating - certainly beyond their battery lifespan.
Battery lifespan is measured in cycles.
Teslas are good for between 1500 to 5000 cycles depending on chemistry . Multiply that by range
Worse case numbers used .
Model Y performance  300 km real world range times 1500 = 450,000 km.
Few cars of any make get to 450,000km   without major failure's even less  with anything like  the performance of a tesla y performance .
In modern ev's The chassis will fail long before the battery does. I have owned a jdm Toyota MCV21"Camry" wagon  arguably one of the most reliable cars even sold. I moved on because it was costing too much to keep  on the road over 400,000km as chassis parts would not pass nzs yearly  inspections with out ongoing ultimately uneconomic repairs .
This does not mean you can not find outlying data points for evs that fail early  .
Plenty of ice cars die due to catastrophic failure long before expected life span is reached as is with evs .

 

Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12268 on: October 11, 2024, 07:08:16 AM »
We, Robot
 
Why the event started late:
 
Elon Musk
A person in the crowd had a medical emergency. We have taken care of them and will be starting shortly.
10/10/24, 10:37 PM ET https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1844567949144883345
 
——-
Sawyer Merritt
Nobody is in the car
10/10/24, 11:03 PM ET ➡️  https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1844574526497325184
9 sec.  There were 50 fully autonomous Teslas giving rides at the event, including 20 cybercabs.

NEWS: Tesla will start fully unsupervised FSD in Texas and California in 2025 with Model 3/Y/CT. (Also S/X.)

—-
The Cybercab — no steering wheel or pedals.  It will be made in volume. 
Available for sale, “before 2027,” for less than $30,000.
No plug — induction charging only.

The cybercab’s AI5 (Hardware 5) computer will be “over-specced,” providing a major source of distributed inference compute in the cars’ downtime.  “100 million cars x 1kw inference compute each = 100GW of distributed compute.”
« Last Edit: October 11, 2024, 01:53:48 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12269 on: October 11, 2024, 07:11:47 AM »
Bro what
10/10/24, 11:13 PM ➡️  https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1844577087367336067
20 sec. 
The Robovan.
“We’re gonna make this.  And it’s gonna look like that.”
It can carry up to 20 people.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12270 on: October 11, 2024, 07:14:34 AM »
Optimus robots walked out, danced, interacted with the crowd, served drinks and candy, and played Rock-Paper-Scissors.  (Not all actions were AI.)
« Last Edit: October 11, 2024, 03:03:28 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Espen

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12271 on: October 11, 2024, 01:12:21 PM »
It seems that the steam has run out of Tesla and their taxi plans, too big own expectations and far too few redemptions. Furthermore, his support of Trump is not to much help with the many potentially "liberal" EV customers worldwide!!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12272 on: October 11, 2024, 02:04:23 PM »
Line of cybercabs staging at one location.

Remove the “-ing lots” from parking lots and make them into parks.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2024, 03:04:50 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12273 on: October 11, 2024, 02:48:54 PM »
The We, Robot event was billed as, “What the future will look like.”
Exciting.  The future is not here yet, but Tesla is the closest to it.

Observations:
Quote
Robert Scoble
@Scobleizer
Optimus make me a drink, please.
This is not wholly AI. A human is remote assisting.
Which means AI day next year where we will see how fast Optimus is learning.
10/11/24,  ➡️  https://x.com/scobleizer/status/1844593576040333767
1 min

Quote
Tesla Owners Silicon Valley
Hanging out and talking with @Tesla_Optimus
10/11/24, 1:25 AM ➡️ https://x.com/teslaownerssv/status/1844610376165425658
1 min. On the street, thus we can hear the Robot talking.

=====
Quote
AJ @alojoh
 
Initial observations on the robocab.
 
Overall: this vehicle shouts 'cost savings' which is a great thing for investors! Everywhere you look you can see cost savings while low cost DOES NOT mean cheap looking (except for a few less important things).
 
1. Overall very simple design, makes for very low production cost, but highly aerodynamically.  In fact, a very similar shaped vehicle already exists. I'll post to separately.
2. No glass roof. Simple panel instead.
3. Simple hood panel. High/straight cut line make for easier alignment/assembly.     
4. First Tesla with framed windows: cheaper/easier to build. Seals last longer. Accusting benefits.
5. No rear window saves various components and lowers complexity: no glass, no cables for the heating element, no labour for setting the glas pane, significant weight saving and accousting benefits etc.
6. Side windows one pane (often broken into two (large/small element) for visibility and other reasons). 
7. Rear comprises of a minimal number of components: eg one large panel, one light strip, second smaller panel. 
8. Very low cost seat design: no expensive stitching. It's possible the seat is not even motorised (on picture it looks like a lever suggesting manual adjustment). However, it's possible this is due to being a prototype. 
9. Small, minimalist center console. 
10. Very simple door panel design: no large number of different materials, no issues with seams. 
11. There is NO small rear side window even though it looks like one. The black glass looking piece is just for decorative purposes. This also means there is no b-pillar! This simplifies the vehicle structure and improves crash test performance, lowers weight. 
12. Obviously: no steering wheel, steering column, no steering assist motors/hydraulics, no accelerator pedal and required electronics.
13. Tesla typical minimalist dashboard design but with improved edge design: surfaces 'connect' making it easy to create perfect seam.
 
Above observations are just from the outside. Logic dictates a similar design philosophy was applied 'under the hood'.
 
Overall this makes this vehicle perfect for a mass-market use case and makes it very very hard for any competitor to compete without having to burn first billions for several years in an effort to follow Tesla.
10/11/24, 3:23 AM https://x.com/alojoh/status/1844639924315668790
 
⬇️ Waymo vs Tesla
10/11/24, https://x.com/niccruzpatane/status/1844639454490673155
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kassy

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12274 on: October 11, 2024, 04:29:33 PM »
Why prioritize robot cabs to simple affordable EVs? Of course it´s mainly time to hype up that concept again.

It will not replace car ownership for many drivers. It can replace secondary cars but how much extra does that bring beyond that. Probably not too much.

The simple EV town car would bring more benefits on a global market but that concept is not interesting enough i guess.
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nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12275 on: October 11, 2024, 06:08:24 PM »
The event didn’t seem to fully convince many investors, tesla share value drops around a 10%. I guess they were waiting to be persuaded by a extraordinary event, it was not that extraordinary… Tesla hype just doesn’t work as it used to, I guess. Another pile of “corporate puffery”.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12276 on: October 11, 2024, 11:24:54 PM »
Quote
Why prioritize robot cabs to simple affordable EVs?
Tesla's original mission is a thing of the past.
The 25k promised on this thread by avid supporters for early 2025 will not be, that's for sure.
Cybertaxi day was a big yawn, from what I can tell. More promises for a future that keeps receding.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12277 on: October 12, 2024, 01:07:41 AM »
Past events: Tesla gives vehicle specs and forecasts.
Doubters:  But where is the hardware?!
 
Current event: Tesla puts their hardware to work:  many units of its all-new, fully autonomous cybercab; a futuristic Robovan; and showcases unsupervised FSD that will soon be offered to millions of Teslas.
Doubters:  But what are the specs and forecasts?!

Quote
Why prioritize robot cabs to simple affordable EVs?
 
The Cybercab will be for sale to the general public, at a cost probably below $30,000.  Its autonomous abilities mean it can make money back for its owner, if cost is an issue.  It was suggested that a person might want to own and manage a “flock” of them, reducing the need for others’ private ownership. 
 
A car without a steering wheel or pedals — it doesn’t get much simpler than that!

Given the simplifications in manufacturing as I posted above, it’s likely a “normal” $25k or less Tesla may be offered soon.  But Tesla dares not reveal it until they are ready to begin mass production — because customers stretching now to afford the Model 3 or Y will stop and wait for the cheaper car, and Model 3 and Y sales would plummet, with nothing to replace the revenue. Timing is everything. 
 
This event was for autonomy and AI. Individual car ownership is on the way out.  Robot cars and humanoids are on the rise.

Steve Jobs killed the floppy.
Elon Musk killed the steering wheel.

10/10/24, 11:49 PM ➡️ https://x.com/scobleizer/status/1844585973373423938
Clip: Cybercab turns the corner with passengers inside — but no steering wheel.

—-
Quote
Taylor Robinette
 
Tesla’s “We, Robot” event wasn’t primarily an unveiling—it was the announcement of a major pivot to the world. Tesla is now fully an autonomy, robotics, and real-world AI company.
 
I’ve said it before, but this is not a small shift in strategy. This is a drastic pivot.
 
Elon has seen so clearly that the future will be one with autonomous transport and humanoids, that he is willing to put all the chips on the table.
 
Think about the pivot as similar to Netflix shifting from DVDs to streaming or Starbucks shifting from selling espresso machines and coffee beans to serving freshly brewed coffee in cafés.
 
Both were seen as insane by the public when the pivot started, but were obviously the right move in hindsight.

 
I believe Tesla is going through a similar period now.
 
“Where is the $25k compact car?”
 
“How will they continue to achieve growing volume on S3XY?”
 
“When will automotive gross margin start increasing again?”
 
All of these are fine questions for short-term investors (and I think Tesla will continue to address them), but they miss the point long-term. Tesla is becoming a robotaxi and humanoid robot company, and that change will be far more valuable to shareholders than any amount of vehicle volume achieved in the short term. It’s fundamentally changing the lifeblood of the company. …
 
10/11/24, 3:36 PM https://x.com/twrobinette/status/1844824473251479653
 
   -—
 
Robert Scoble
I met an Apple employee who was at the Tesla event and he told me that Apple killed its autonomous car after figuring out what Tesla was building.
10/11/24, 3:11 AM https://x.com/scobleizer/status/1844636946309747002
 
—-
Quote
Matthew Donegan-Ryan
🧵Big Tesla Cybercab photo dump thread 🪡
PLUS more details from @larsmoravy and @woodhaus2:
 
- There are no plans to make a Cybercab with a steering wheel and pedals (demand for the Robotaxi version will essentially be unlimited).
  —-
 
- Production will start first in Texas and then move to other factories.
 
- the [Cybercab] has many overlapping parts from the Tesla Model 3 and Y
 
- even the Robovan has a surprising number of parts from other Tesla models.
 
   —-
- All Teslas on the road running hardware 3 or 4 will be able to function as robotaxis without needing any hardware retrofitting.

   —-
- the Cybercab has the same camera layout as the Model 3/Y plus an additional camera in the front bumper (like Cybertruck).

10/11/24, 4:16 AM ➡️  https://x.com/matthewdr/status/1844653356473561553
Photos galore in the thread.

 
——
 
Matthew Donegan-Ryan
 
Here’s a 7 minute clip of fans interacting with the Tesla_Optimus Robot last night.
The Tesla bots on display were semi autonomous. Remote operators stepped in when needed (confirmed by staff).
The interactions felt like you were speaking with [ChatGPT].
 
10/11/24, 1:37 PM https://x.com/matthewdr/status/1844794453896155538

 
Tesla Optimus Bot interacting with a crowd

« Last Edit: October 12, 2024, 01:15:20 AM by Sigmetnow »
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12278 on: October 12, 2024, 01:22:37 AM »
Quote
Given the simplifications in manufacturing as I posted above, it’s likely a “normal” $25k or less Tesla may be offered soon.  But Tesla dares not reveal it until they are poised to begin mass production — because customers stretching now to afford the Model 3 or Y will stop and wait for the cheaper car, and Model 3 and Y sales would plummet, with nothing to replace the revenue. Timing is everything. 
More empty promises for a receding future.
Timing is everything. There will not be a 25k car (an actual one, not a 2-seater fantasy robotaxi) in early 2025. Nor in late 2025, for that matter. But gosh, what a marvelous future for the long term stock investors. Personally, I would avoid this stock like the plague at this point. Too many goalposts moved, never mind the erratic CEO that once was a boon and now a major hindrance. And a shame really, as the world could do with a low cost well built pure EV.

zenith

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12279 on: October 12, 2024, 03:42:24 AM »
And a shame really, as the world could do with a low cost well built pure EV.

i'd buy a well built, reliable $20-25k ev if one was available. china produces cheap evs but canada foists a 100% tariff on them as western manufacturers, in "advanced" economies, can't compete. the price purchasing power for labour is far removed from asian, indian or african countries. you couldn't buy a cardboard box to live in on their wages in the west. that's why so many western car manufacturers are turning to producing super/hypercars for the wealthy, they can't compete in the regular car market and evs are a money loser, people don't want them for all sorts of headaches. the really wealthy will buy them if they're well made and real fast/unique but even they are wary of depreciation.

it's just another failed experiment at this point, the grifters/bullshit artists have nobody to blame but themselves.

can we get a reliable electric train network in north america now?  first we'd need to upgrade the grid.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12280 on: October 12, 2024, 04:12:11 PM »
More empty promises for a receding future.
Timing is everything. There will not be a 25k car (an actual one, not a 2-seater fantasy robotaxi) in early 2025. Nor in late 2025, for that matter.

So all those patents for the simplified, “unboxed” assembly process, to make a lower-cost Tesla — which are already being installed in part in the Texas Gigafactory are… not real?
« Last Edit: October 12, 2024, 04:45:51 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12281 on: October 12, 2024, 04:23:54 PM »
There were at least a dozen Optimus robots interacting with the crowd at the event.
(FWIW, the one in the above video was labeled “37.”)
10/10/24, 11:17 PM ➡️  https://x.com/teslaboomermama/status/1844578098408456309
 3:40 - the grand entrance, the group walking down the street; one stops to interact nearby.

—-
Cybercab
 
< Is there a frunk?
Matthew Donegan-Ryan: Yup
< The demand will be ZERO in Europe because no approval.
MD: lol
< Those doors will not make the possible production model. Not practical for use as a taxi.
MD: That’s what they said about the Model X.
10/11/24, https://x.com/matthewdr/status/1844778358812393644

 
Hard to tell from the night shots, but it seems the Cybercab doors have a detent at the half-open position, keeping the door close to the car for stops in close quarters.  Easy entrance to, and exit from, the vehicle was clearly a priority.

Reminder:  SpaceX uses Tesla actuators for some moving parts on the Starship rocket….
« Last Edit: October 12, 2024, 04:34:43 PM by Sigmetnow »
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12282 on: October 12, 2024, 05:01:45 PM »
Quote
Why prioritize robot cabs to simple affordable EVs?
Tesla's original mission is a thing of the past.
The 25k promised on this thread by avid supporters for early 2025 will not be, that's for sure.
Cybertaxi day was a big yawn, from what I can tell. More promises for a future that keeps receding.

This year the company has made three statements on models and production.

It has stated that Unboxed will be required for the CyberCab.
It has stated that they will produce two smaller models on the same production lines as existing vehicles are made on
The CyberCab will not go on sale until 2026.

We Robot was about autonomy and robotics.  It was nothing to do with new models which are not for autonomy/robotics.  So it is no surprise they were not mentioned.

If, however, at the next investors day, Elon does not elaborate on the smaller, cheaper, models or even states that they have been cancelled, then your lack of faith and derision will have been earned.

Tell me, how long did it take from Battery day to the 4680 coming on stream in high volume with close to the power predicted for the first iteration?  How long did Cybertruck go from announcement to delivery, Semi, Roadster 2.0 is still held up.

Yet Tesla is on track to make and sell more vehicles than 2023 even in a "between growth waves" year.

I have the crappiest memory but logic does not escape me.  I thought others had a better memory.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12283 on: October 12, 2024, 05:39:59 PM »
The Unboxed Process has been documented.
 
Quote
SETI Park
Oh my god! @Tesla's secret Unboxed Process has been revealed. 👀
9/7/24, ➡️ https://x.com/seti_park/status/1832382633093087409
Long thread with illos from the patent doc.

The short version:
Quote
MODULAR VEHICLE ARCHITECTURE FOR ASSEMBLING VEHICLES
 
Modular Subassemblies and Connections

Tesla's innovation leverages pre-assembled modules and efficient connection systems to streamline manufacturing.

✅ Key Components
 ▫️ Subassemblies (Figure 2): Pre-wired modules for vehicle components
 ▫️ Umbilical cables: Connect subassemblies to the backbone
 ▫️ Backbone connectors (Figures 19-31): Secure and shielded connection points

🔍 Connection Process
 ▫️ Subassemblies prepared with internal wiring and components
 ▫️ Umbilical cables attach subassemblies to backbone at specific points
 ▫️ Backbone connectors provide secure, shielded connections

🔄 Assembly Flexibility
▫️ Rapid installation of pre-wired subassemblies
▫️ Easy replacement or upgrade of individual modules
▫️ Adaptable to various vehicle configurations

This modular approach significantly reduces assembly time and complexity while improving overall system reliability and maintainability.
7/21/24, https://x.com/seti_park/status/1814883968040513816
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12284 on: October 12, 2024, 06:32:53 PM »
Tesla does not need to do a “reveal” event to judge the level of interest in a less expensive Tesla.  They have years of global sales data showing exactly how customer interest changes with price.  Perhaps the worst thing they could do would be to announce a less expensive model and then not be able to sell tens or hundreds of thousands of them immediately, with at-scale savings and efficiency.  That will also require completely updated transport and export capacity, to prevent delays in getting all those cars to customers.

The next Tesla wave will be a tsunami, like the Model 3 was over the Model S.
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Espen

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12285 on: October 12, 2024, 07:06:44 PM »
Tesla does not need to do a “reveal” event to judge the level of interest in a less expensive Tesla.  They have years of global sales data showing exactly how customer interest changes with price.  Perhaps the worst thing they could do would be to announce a less expensive model and then not be able to sell tens or hundreds of thousands of them immediately, with at-scale savings and efficiency.  That will also require completely updated transport and export capacity, to prevent delays in getting all those cars to customers.

The next Tesla wave will be a tsunami, like the Model 3 was over the Model S.

Do they also have data on what potential "liberal" EV customers think about Musk's support for Trump???
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12286 on: October 12, 2024, 07:07:15 PM »
NeilT and Sig, It's hard to understand what you are saying, for all the jargon. Unboxed or not Unboxed, I personally have stopped following all the stories coming out of Tesla, judging them to be unreliable and even misleading, and am interested only in actual deliverables and deliveries of general availability products.

Are you still claiming a 25k car (4 seater I assume/hope) WILL be avaliable in early 2025?
I say it won't.

etienne

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12287 on: October 12, 2024, 08:02:25 PM »
It depends what you call a car. The new version of my Dacia Spring  starts at 11K. If you want the option fast charging,  it starts ar 14K, but the slow charging only takes 4 hours (mine requires  9 hours). The range hasn't been improved  - 220 km.

Rascal Dog

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12288 on: October 12, 2024, 08:22:50 PM »
Robocab isn't a product.

Until self driving fully works*, it is a "Concept Car". And concept cars are mostly boring. Because they are not real.


(*) and not just in an edited demo tape. Or with a human supervisor. Or ...


nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12289 on: October 12, 2024, 08:39:27 PM »
It depends what you call a car. The new version of my Dacia Spring  starts at 11K. If you want the option fast charging,  it starts ar 14K, but the slow charging only takes 4 hours (mine requires  9 hours). The range hasn't been improved  - 220 km.
Does that include government subsidies? I’ve been looking at prices and Dacia Spring starts at ~18,000€.
Which is not so bad tbh, just 5000€ over the ICE equivalent. The range is ok if charged at home, and if the battery lasts as advetised (it won’t).

There are already many brands/models of around 25000€ or less in Europe. That’s the other thing, Tesla is late in that race.

The question for me is how reliable a ev is in this price range, knowing that reliability is not the forte of the more expensive evs. And the battery “issue”…

etienne

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12290 on: October 12, 2024, 09:23:50 PM »
Well prices dropped shortly.  I was very surprised when I checked it.
My car has almost 40.000 km without any major problem.  Parallelism of the front tires had to be corrected and I have water in the trunk if the rubber seal is not clean enough. Both problems are not ev related.

Added : sorry to be out of topic,  I wasn't careful enough and thought I was in the EV thread.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12291 on: October 12, 2024, 09:58:28 PM »
NeilT and Sig, It's hard to understand what you are saying, for all the jargon. Unboxed or not Unboxed, I personally have stopped following all the stories coming out of Tesla, judging them to be unreliable and even misleading, and am interested only in actual deliverables and deliveries of general availability products.

Are you still claiming a 25k car (4 seater I assume/hope) WILL be avaliable in early 2025?
I say it won't.

And that is exactly the point.  Ignoring (or not understanding) the Unboxed Process means ignoring the revolutionary new production method which is about to upend mass vehicle production forever.  Whether that happens in 3 months or 6 or 12 is not the important metric, and must be tempered preferentially by the state of the global economy.  It will be accentuated by the failures among the traditional OEMs, with their EV doldrums, battery pull-back, and ICE sales shrinkage.  The OEM’s decline is well underway; I’ll post more in the EV thread shortly.

The numbers you are looking for won’t come until after the EV manufacturing transition happens.  When Tesla will once again prove it is in the forefront of manufacturing and technology.  See you then!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12292 on: October 12, 2024, 10:32:06 PM »
Since neither NeilT nor I seem to be able to adequately explain, I asked Grok (in Fun Mode) to “Please ELI5 Tesla’s Unboxed Process.”  Here’s (most of) what it said:

Quote
**Traditional Car Making:**

Imagine building a Lego car. You start with a box of pieces, and you slap them together one by one, following the instructions. It's like a giant, linear game of Lego where each step depends on the last one being perfect. This is how cars have been made for ages: chassis first, then body, then interior, all in a straight line.

**Tesla's Unboxed Process:**

Now, picture this: Instead of building your Lego car piece by piece, you're given three big Lego blocks - one for the front, one for the middle, and one for the back. You can assemble these blocks almost independently before snapping them together at the end. It's like having your Lego castle turrets built separately and then plopping them on top of your castle base.

- **Modular Magic:** Tesla's like, "Why build a car in a straight line when we can build it in chunks?" They create these car sections independently. Think of it as making three mini-cars that fit together like a puzzle.

- **Flexibility:** If you want to change something, like add a rocket booster (you know, for those emergencies), you don't have to redo the whole car. Just tweak that one section.

- **Robots and Humans Tag-Team:** The process uses robots (or 'cobots' if you will, because they're collaborative) and humans. It's like having a Lego building contest where robots can help but need humans for the creative touches.

- **Less Waste, More Haste:** This method means less waiting around for parts, less waste in production, and quicker changes if designs need tweaking. It's like having all your Lego sorted by color before you start building.

- **Sustainability:** Tesla's also patting itself on the back for being greener because this process supposedly uses less material and energy. Think of it as using all your Lego pieces without losing any under the couch.

**Why It's Cool:**

- **Cost:** Imagine if every Lego set you ever bought was cheaper because they found a way to pack and build them smarter. That's Tesla's aim.

- **Speed:** You can build cars faster because you're not waiting for one part to finish before starting the next. It's like having multiple Lego sets going at once.

- **Innovation:** Tesla's not just changing how cars are made; they're changing what cars can be. It's like realizing you can make a Lego spaceship out of your regular car kit.

So, there you have it! Tesla's Unboxed Process is like turning car manufacturing into a more efficient, modular Lego fest. It's less about following the instruction manual step-by-step and more about building blocks of innovation, flexibility, and efficiency. Now, if only they could make a car that flies... but one step at a time, right?
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12293 on: October 13, 2024, 09:29:55 AM »
Sig, I don't care one bit about this, sorry. I really can't bring myself to read this post. It's like I'm asking a general question about the plot of Harry Potter and you're telling me to read the book.
Since you are following Tesla very closely - do YOU think there will be a 25k car generally available in early 2025 from Tesla? In late 2025? Or only in some unknown point in the future?
If you can answer, I would appreciate that.
If even you don't know, that tells something about Tesla that I think is important.
Of course, you can also choose not to answer, I'll respect that.

Ranman99

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12294 on: October 13, 2024, 12:50:21 PM »
😎

John Batteen

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12295 on: October 13, 2024, 03:35:57 PM »
How many times has Elon promised something next year that showed up many years later, or not at all?  I'll believe any of this stuff when I see it.

kassy

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12296 on: October 13, 2024, 10:03:34 PM »
And how many drivers would pick a car without a steering wheel over one with a wheel if prices were similar? Not everybody shares Sigs enthusiasm for these type of things.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12297 on: October 14, 2024, 03:42:44 AM »
Sig, I don't care one bit about this, sorry. I really can't bring myself to read this post. It's like I'm asking a general question about the plot of Harry Potter and you're telling me to read the book.
Since you are following Tesla very closely - do YOU think there will be a 25k car generally available in early 2025 from Tesla? In late 2025? Or only in some unknown point in the future?
If you can answer, I would appreciate that.
If even you don't know, that tells something about Tesla that I think is important.
Of course, you can also choose not to answer, I'll respect that.

My answer is, it doesn’t matter exactly when it happens!
 
If you don’t want to read and understand why things are happening the way they are, that’s your choice.  But harping about an exact date when you don’t understand the situation sounds like an impatient child.

Are we there yet?

                        Are we there yet?       
                                   
                                                                 Are we there yet?
      Are we there yet?

                                      Are we there yet?

Did an exact date of launch for personal computers, or smart phones, or streaming video matter?  No.  But now they are a part of everyday life.

Tesla’s revolutionary new products are coming and will take over markets just like their EVs.  Musk’s focus on industry-leading mass-manufacturing techniques will assure these new products become ubiquitous. 

And so, asking for a specific date when there isn’t one is a moot argument.  (Tesla’s Q3 earnings call on October 23 might be the next best source of additional clues.)

But again, for the umpteenth time:  Tesla won’t announce a $25k car until they can say, “You can go to our website now and order one!”   That does NOT mean they aren’t getting ready to do so!
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12298 on: October 14, 2024, 09:12:12 AM »
Thanks Sig, your answer is very clear.
I may remind you of it next time you do use a firm date in your arguments, these tend not to materialize later, due to your well articulated reasons and anyhow they don't matter so why use them.

As for me, I will keep away from Tesla stock (not that I matter and not that it should interest anyone anyway).

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #12299 on: October 14, 2024, 04:06:56 PM »
I may remind you of it next time you do use a firm date in your arguments, these tend not to materialize later, due to your well articulated reasons and anyhow they don't matter so why use them.

And thus, equally senseless to demand one….

Here’s hoping you can read the paragraph below.  It is our best glimpse into Tesla’s current work — and intended timing.

Here it is in plain (OK, partially highlighted,) text:

Quote
OUTLOOK
 
Volume
 
Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform. In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next generation vehicle and other products. In 2024, the growth rates of energy storage deployments and revenue in our Energy Generation and Storage business should outpace the Automotive business.
Tesla 2Q 2024 Investor Slide Deck

 
⬇️ Image of the original, with highlight added. Click to enhance.
 
« Last Edit: October 14, 2024, 04:18:00 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.