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johnm33

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1000 on: January 12, 2019, 12:00:15 AM »
agreed, it happened just as the storm passed north so I suspect ice driven by wind or windrows of ice in the troughs of the waves.

SimonF92

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1001 on: January 12, 2019, 12:45:18 AM »
Shame, would have spurred some interesting reading had it happened.

Forgive my naivety.

Neven

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1002 on: January 12, 2019, 10:32:23 AM »
Well, we've seen oddener things happen.  ;)
Compare, compare, compare

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1003 on: January 12, 2019, 12:26:43 PM »
Shame, would have spurred some interesting reading had it happened.

Forgive my naivety.
thanks for the research  :)  It's unlikely that this year's mostly first year ice is up to the job. Waves are over 3m today, forecast for over 4m tomorrow.
polarview, Greenland ice front closest to Jan Mayen, jan12 
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 02:02:45 PM by uniquorn »

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1004 on: January 12, 2019, 07:29:32 PM »
Here's a "ho hum" news article on the first -50degF weather system(spot temperature, -51.7degF) in Alaska for the winter season:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/31275

Contrasting a continental "far north cold" U.S. state, Maine had its coldest ever temp recorded in mid-January 2009 of....... -50degF.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 07:38:21 PM by litesong »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1005 on: January 12, 2019, 07:35:19 PM »
In the continuing absence of the PIOMAS numbers, here's my own take on the current state of the sea ice in the Arctic:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/01/facts-about-the-arctic-in-january-2019/

Quote
According to The Economist today:

"America’s government shutdown has become the longest in history. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers remain either stuck at home or forced to work without pay."

and according to the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington:

"Due to the US Government Shutdown, PIOMAS ice volume and thickness data which depend on federal government generated reanalysis products, are currently not updated."

Plus another blast from the past courtesy of the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, where everybody still appears to be hard at work. Note that there's no sign of the Odden Ice Tongue on any of those maps!

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

meddoc

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1006 on: January 13, 2019, 01:34:11 PM »
The Vortex is Toast...
Get Ready for a Scorcher as soon as the Sun comes back.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1007 on: January 13, 2019, 03:33:04 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1008 on: January 13, 2019, 04:49:27 PM »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1009 on: January 14, 2019, 07:48:34 AM »
January 6-13.

Sterks

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1010 on: January 14, 2019, 08:00:03 AM »
The combination of the strong Arctic HP and the Atlantic storm caused that receding of the ice in Barents. Negative AO, potentially very negative excursion predicted for next week, might keep ice edge expansion slow...

binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1011 on: January 15, 2019, 07:08:55 AM »
Article on the Polar Vortex split - Europe is in the freezer, but what will happen in the Arctic? I don't know if it's only an illusion but I tend to think that, just as there is a finite amount of warmth in the atmosphere at any given time, so there should also be a finite amount of "coldth" and if a big blob of coldness slips into Europe, another blob of warmth should be going to where that coldness is not. Or is that just rubbish?

binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1012 on: January 15, 2019, 07:28:36 AM »
Just bumped into another one, this time from the  main Italian forecaster. For those who don't read Italian, the main points are: "Polar vortex in pieces" is the caption plastered across the image, and further down: "Looking at the analysis map one notices that the coming days will see a very strong warming of the stratosphere, one of the strongest of the last 30 years, on par with or stronger than the one in 1985, in fact canging from -75 to -10 degrees, a crazy jump in temperatures of 65 degrees."

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1013 on: January 15, 2019, 12:21:58 PM »
January 6-13.
Not sure what makes amsr2 detect large floes as lower concentration than the 'glue ice' in between. Snowdrifts?
With the cold wind, I'd expected the ice to cross the warm current to Svalbard again but no, it still melts.
amsr2-uhh, atlantic front, jan7-14
worldview, viirs, bt15n, atlantic front, jan15  https://go.nasa.gov/2FvSg66

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1014 on: January 15, 2019, 07:14:02 PM »
Just bumped into another one, this time from the  main Italian forecaster. For those who don't read Italian, the main points are: "Polar vortex in pieces" is the caption plastered across the image, and further down: "Looking at the analysis map one notices that the coming days will see a very strong warming of the stratosphere, one of the strongest of the last 30 years, on par with or stronger than the one in 1985, in fact canging from -75 to -10 degrees, a crazy jump in temperatures of 65 degrees."
Google translate does very well with Italian. It seems the Italians are saying that the SSW that has just happened is likely to be followed with an even stronger one. I shall be keeping an eye on this from http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ (a website of the Japan meteorology agency).

If this means the Polar Vortex falls to bits and Eastern USA, Central Europe and part of Siberia are to be clobbered over the next few weeks what does this mean for the Arctic for the remainder of this freezing season?

Current images attached.

ps: An example of the upside of globalisation. Scientists and Government agencies all over the world working together to provide the pieces of the jigsaw of the complete climate and weather fabric. Something that the Trumps of the world just do not comprehend.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1015 on: January 16, 2019, 07:12:29 AM »

Google translate does very well with Italian. It seems the Italians are saying that the SSW that has just happened is likely to be followed with an even stronger one. I shall be keeping an eye on this from http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ (a website of the Japan meteorology agency).

Well the Italians seem to be saying just that in this article from yesterday. To quote: "In fact, a second important stratospheric warming has started on the Siberian area, causing a new weakening of the polar vortex, [which is] now in deep trouble".

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1016 on: January 16, 2019, 08:14:26 AM »
Current ECMWF op run, which stretches out to Jan 26th, shows no northern blocking over the North Atlantic.

For western Europe, going by these charts, the impact of the late December SSW is quite minimal.

binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1017 on: January 16, 2019, 09:07:17 AM »
Current ECMWF op run, which stretches out to Jan 26th, shows no northern blocking over the North Atlantic.

For western Europe, going by these charts, the impact of the late December SSW is quite minimal.
Not that I know the first thing about SSW but the weather in Europe has been pretty wild these last few weeks, with extreme cold reaching all the way down to North Africa, massive amounts of snow in the Alps and elsewhere in central/western Europe, while Iceland had temperatures that would have been more normal in summer than winter, with practically no snow (although that has changed drastically in the last few days).

El Cid

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1018 on: January 16, 2019, 10:05:34 AM »
I wrote about the upcoming SSW in December in this thread, you could see it very early on the GFS 10hpa temp charts by then, but it has already happened. Now, however, GFS shows the polar vortex gradually going back to normal by day 10 from now, no hit from Siberia, or anywhere else. The vortex seems to be centered above the CAA by day 10.

see it here:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=gfs&var=42&run=0&time=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


I agree with Niall, no serious hit so far from the vortex collapse, no severe weather seen the next 10-14 days, at least not in Europe. There is however an outbreak of pretty cold air over NE USA starting T+4 / T+5.

binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1019 on: January 16, 2019, 10:32:21 AM »
Not sure what the Italians have been smoking - they talk about 10 degrees Centigrade below average after the 20th, and refer to GFS and ECMWF. I don't see it myself, although GFS has some pretty mean temperatures after the 26th but that's too far ahead to rely on.

But the website severe-weather.eu is also predicting freezing temps after the 20th. Who to believe ...

colchonero

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1020 on: January 16, 2019, 11:23:04 AM »
Current ECMWF op run, which stretches out to Jan 26th, shows no northern blocking over the North Atlantic.

For western Europe, going by these charts, the impact of the late December SSW is quite minimal.
Not that I know the first thing about SSW but the weather in Europe has been pretty wild these last few weeks, with extreme cold reaching all the way down to North Africa, massive amounts of snow in the Alps and elsewhere in central/western Europe, while Iceland had temperatures that would have been more normal in summer than winter, with practically no snow (although that has changed drastically in the last few days).
Actually, the weather has been warmer than average in central Europe this Winter until now. On the other hand, there were cold outbreaks in eastern Europe, with solid amounts of snow all the way down (not just mountains and hills) multiple times.



BTW, after day 5 EC suggests cold may return over Bering, stay over Baffin and Kara, while Atlantic front and especially Okhotsk should see some +ve anomalies.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2019, 11:35:47 AM by colchonero »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1021 on: January 16, 2019, 02:27:37 PM »
A further look at the amsr2 representation of ice on the atlantic front over the last few days where refrozen fractures show as higher concentration than older floes. This is apparent on both uni Hamburg and Bremen.
Comparing with worldview viirs, brightness temperature(band 15,night) with different palettes (green1 and rainbow1) there is a haze above the refrozen fractures, more visible on the rainbow palette. Perhaps it is mist due to heat escaping through the thinner ice. Snow would be unlikely where the ice meets the ocean.
worldview,viirs,bt15n,jan16  https://go.nasa.gov/2TWCNzh
amsr2-uhh, jan15 - high contrast on right

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1022 on: January 16, 2019, 06:52:03 PM »
FYI, the ECMWF and GFS models saw the SSW coming although they have been struggling with the details on how the deceleration of the vortex in the high stratosphere would work its way down in the atmosphere. I have been surprised about how well the CFS model has done at getting the big picture right about the SSW beginning to affect surface weather strongly around January 15.

I wrote about the developing SSW on 19Dec18.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/12/19/1820257/-Thirty-Mile-High-Wave-Encircling-Earth-to-Break-over-North-Pole-on-Christmas-Day

RoxTheGeologist

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