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Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #550 on: October 30, 2018, 06:18:55 PM »
Always interesting to look through those 5 day progressions from Aluminium and observe the areas where ice is developing swiftly and where it is not.

The Laptev is closing in but still we have an area that is still north of 80 ( at circa 80 N 140 E ) that has developed very little since ice minimum. Is this the same area where we have seen early opening/polynya before in the Spring ? Was there suspicion that this section of the Arctic is prone to warm upwewlling and difficult to freeze ?

If you look at the post uniquorn has been making, on the Salinity incursions, it suggests that Atlanticifaction of the Svalbard - FJL - Severnaya Zemlya slope may have reached the most south west end of the Eurasian basin. The open water is over the deeper shallows and may be warmer Atlantic waters shoaling over the shelf extension of the Lomonosov Ridge

Seems far more plausible.

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #551 on: October 30, 2018, 11:42:14 PM »
litesong; October 25, 2018, 02:04:15 AM
......to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to 440,000 square kilometers more than 2016. The 2018 sea ice rise has even passed the 2012, so 2018 is already in to-date 3rd place lowest sea ice.
 As stated in earlier posts, cold sliding off the Greenland Ice Sheet & then proceeding into the High Arctic is reducing heat in the High Arctic, allowing increasing Arctic sea ice to form. I had NOT expected to-date 2018 sea ice to keep up with the record 2016 low sea ice. & the record high temperature anomalies of 2016 High Arctic are still ahead.
/////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to 560,000 square kilometers more than 2016.
Yesterday, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 700,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Today, for the first time in 5(?) days, 2018 Arctic sea ice only maintained its excess extent to 2016, still at 700,000 square kilometers.

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #552 on: October 31, 2018, 04:34:22 PM »
Yesterday, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 700,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Today, for the first time in 5(?) days, 2018 Arctic sea ice only maintained its excess extent to 2016, still at 700,000 square kilometers.
To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 820,000 square kilometers more than 2016. During this yearly period of general strong sea ice gains, 2016 sea ice extent LOSSES are still in the calendar days ahead.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #553 on: October 31, 2018, 08:01:31 PM »
I noticed this pressure map is for November 7, seven days out. I can honestly say I am always confused by pressure maps at any geopotential height and the corresponding temperatures or weather for a region. In this map, there is a significant low over the north Atlantic. I guess you are saying this will bring cold temperatures but the forecast for London is highs in the 50's with rain or, in other words, typically shitty weather for London.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/UKXX0085:1:UK

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #554 on: October 31, 2018, 08:03:06 PM »
Oooops. Comment by bbr2314 that I was replying to has disappeared.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #555 on: October 31, 2018, 08:12:19 PM »
Oooops. Comment by bbr2314 that I was replying to has disappeared.

this reminds me of asking some users who predicted the hudson would be frozen by the 15th of november still believe so?

i for my part don't believe that and think that hudson is holding out quite well. during summer there were repeated theories of very early refreeze of hudson and even more extreme predictions for greater parts of canada.

i personally do not believe in any wide spread re-glacification, after all the globe is warming and sooner or later retreat of the ice will happen everywhere.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #556 on: October 31, 2018, 10:40:09 PM »
Oooops. Comment by bbr2314 that I was replying to has disappeared.

this reminds me of asking some users who predicted the hudson would be frozen by the 15th of november still believe so?

i for my part don't believe that and think that hudson is holding out quite well. during summer there were repeated theories of very early refreeze of hudson and even more extreme predictions for greater parts of canada.

i personally do not believe in any wide spread re-glacification, after all the globe is warming and sooner or later retreat of the ice will happen everywhere.
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).

CAA is frozen earlier than ever and HB will do the same. So why don't you go bother looking at some graphs before launching into a random attack on me?

Also, SH: I deleted post regarding GB because the cold air went down into North America this wrong, and not Europe. 500MB was a bit deceiving, oops.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #557 on: November 01, 2018, 12:30:14 AM »
Foxe Basin, amsr2-uhh, oct20-30 (smos bremen inset)
Worldview, oct31.

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #558 on: November 01, 2018, 02:01:44 AM »
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).

CAA is frozen earlier than ever and HB will do the same. So why don't you go bother looking at some graphs
I think we are not on track for either 75% or 50% coverage of HB by 11/15. I think we will get there on 12/1, following the usual pattern.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #559 on: November 01, 2018, 02:19:28 AM »
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).

CAA is frozen earlier than ever and HB will do the same. So why don't you go bother looking at some graphs
I think we are not on track for either 75% or 50% coverage of HB by 11/15. I think we will get there on 12/1, following the usual pattern.

I disagree, SSTs are cooler than 2015 (the leading recent year) and the refreeze has advanced much farther already. Here is HYCOM comparison for 10/31 (don't use projected out -- it has been biased warm recently).



I think we are going to see a very rapid advance from the NE as Foxe Basin's expanding pack meets the freshwater lens in NE Hudson Bay, as well as from the NW. The PV looks to relocate over Hudson Bay's vicinity by D10 as well, which should accelerate things further.


sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #560 on: November 01, 2018, 02:30:32 AM »
Oscar headed for the polar cell as extratropical cyclone.  GFS responds appropriately.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #561 on: November 01, 2018, 06:22:12 AM »
There is growing consensus for PV displacement into Canada / HB. Once that rolls over HB, we could see a pretty quick freeze as the periphery is already sub-32F and the rest is very close or already there (outside of the southern bits and James Bay, although even James Bay's periphery is also freezing).



Obviously ^ is also accompanied by HEAT in Bering and Barentz. Especially Bering. But look at Canada -- those temps in Nunavut are 25C below average, and by D8+, widespread areas are seeing -30 to -40C temps.



The EURO is very similar btw -- wonder how 00z looks.


binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #562 on: November 01, 2018, 07:18:43 AM »
Hudson refreeze should be mostly complete by 11/15.

Officially have decent amount of second year ice that will survive in Foxe Basin. Refreeze now underway and should be mostly done in 10-14 days IMO. Very early / at that time the NRN reaches of HB should also begin to freeze.

EOSDIS shows Foxe Basin appr. half covered in ice yesterday, 28 days later. And "refreeze mostly complete" means 75%? Well, I guess we'll see in two weeks time.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #563 on: November 01, 2018, 07:21:10 AM »
October 27-31.

El Cid

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #564 on: November 01, 2018, 08:44:52 AM »
There is growing consensus for PV displacement into Canada / HB.

Consensus by whom?

RikW

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #565 on: November 01, 2018, 08:53:47 AM »
by bbr2314

AmbiValent

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #566 on: November 01, 2018, 09:55:06 AM »
Oscar headed for the polar cell as extratropical cyclone.  GFS responds appropriately.
Is there even a name for such tro-polar cyclones?
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #567 on: November 01, 2018, 11:05:05 AM »
There is growing consensus for PV displacement into Canada / HB.

Consensus by whom?

Oct 31 18Z GFS forecast long range exhibited some big effects on the PV

Oscar is going into the polar cell as an extratropical cyclone.  this sometimes causes SSW.  still too far away to say anything more.
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sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #568 on: November 01, 2018, 11:44:03 AM »
Dr Judah Cohen discusses the PV setup in his Oct 29 blog post: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
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Davidsf

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #569 on: November 01, 2018, 02:19:10 PM »
Can someone help me understand why we should care that much about Hudson Bay, and whether it might freeze over a little earlier than normal? I am not being snide here. I just want to understand. To me, it seems almost separate from the "rest of the arctic." It melts out every year...Thank you

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #570 on: November 01, 2018, 02:52:15 PM »
Can someone help me understand why we should care that much about Hudson Bay, and whether it might freeze over a little earlier than normal?

I don't care so much, but I think some people associate the Hudson with the movement of the "Cold Pole" to Greenland.

I do think the Cold Pole might be moving to Greenland, but I don't think that in the long run it is such a big deal.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #571 on: November 01, 2018, 03:49:23 PM »
David,
In addition to Dharma's reply, BBR thinks there is (or is imminently) advancing glaciation in parts of northern Canada (largely associated with apparently un-melted snow this past melting season).  I'm sure Hudson Bay plays a role in his theory.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #572 on: November 01, 2018, 04:25:40 PM »
David,
In addition to Dharma's reply, BBR thinks there is (or is imminently) advancing glaciation in parts of northern Canada (largely associated with apparently un-melted snow this past melting season).  I'm sure Hudson Bay plays a role in his theory.
I think besides ^^^, the dichotomy between Hudson and Bering / Barentz (Hudson freezing earlier than either of those two seas) also results / encourages more -500MB anomalies in HB and +500MB anomalies in Bering/Barentz, further worseing their ongoing transition to ice-free. (e.g., the "cold" that used to be located over Bering and Barentz in December is now instead over both HB + Canada and Siberia).

be cause

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #573 on: November 01, 2018, 05:10:17 PM »
where has the cold that used to be over Canada and Siberia gone if it has been replaced by the cold that was over  Bering/Barnetz ? b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #574 on: November 01, 2018, 05:35:22 PM »
please don't drag this reglaciation debate into every single thread on the forum
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #575 on: November 01, 2018, 07:03:39 PM »
The NAO index has been positive this summer and fall. There's a reason it's called an oscillation. It doesn't mean there's an oncoming ice age every time it goes positive.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #576 on: November 01, 2018, 08:35:15 PM »
please don't drag this reglaciation debate into every single thread on the forum

Agreed!  Especially not a thread devoted to THIS winter.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #577 on: November 01, 2018, 10:38:39 PM »
Thick ice near the Mclure Strait.
jaxa, oct21-31.
Polarview, oct31

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #578 on: November 02, 2018, 05:52:59 AM »
Is the Bering going to freeze at all this year? I would bet it is 50% less than 2017-18 when all is said and done. AKA almost entirely ice-free. It is November and Wrangel Island is still surrounded by open ocean. 





There is going to be no or reverse movement on the Pac front through D5-10.



Some models are also showing inklings of a major cyclone in the Bering / Chukchi which could = major wave action and losses as well. I think November is going to be a very hostile month for the Pacific front in the high Arctic (and also ATL, but particularly the PAC).





Also: the above forecast may be far out but it is derived primarily based on Yutu's recurve and +500MB heat pulse. This means the Bering event is higher confidence than normal. Prepare for a PAC retreat (for several days or more), IMO...

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #579 on: November 02, 2018, 05:58:51 AM »
where has the cold that used to be over Canada and Siberia gone if it has been replaced by the cold that was over  Bering/Barnetz ? b.c.
As the above images show, it is still there, and now much more severe. It hasn't been "replaced" it has been intensified.

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #580 on: November 02, 2018, 02:40:02 PM »
A little late with my post here, but thank you for the replies to my question.

Red

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #581 on: November 02, 2018, 05:08:39 PM »
A few stats regarding Hudson's bay. The following site is related to Polar bear migration but has some interesting stats on freeze up. It's about last years freeze but has a fair bit of historical stats from Environment Canada.
https://polarbearscience.com/2017/11/13/w-hudson-bay-freeze-up-one-of-earliest-since-1979-not-closer-to-average/

Below, Hudson Bay sea ice coverage for the week of 26 November, 1971-2016 (CIS) shows that 1971 and 1981 were also years of late freeze-up along the coast of western Hudson Bay (although some years known to have had late freeze-up (e.g. 1983, Ramsay and Stirling 1988) show higher values than expected, likely reflecting ice coverage in the northern portion of the bay rather than along the west coast near Churchill):


litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #582 on: November 02, 2018, 07:06:33 PM »
Yesterday, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 910,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Today, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 1 million square kilometers more than 2016. 2016 sea ice extent LOSSES are still in the calendar days ahead, during stunning record anomalously high 20degC High Arctic temperatures above normal. A 20degC temperature difference is 36degF. & this was NOT a spot temperature anomaly, but an anomaly averaged over nearly 4 million square kilometers of the High Arctic.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 01:50:15 AM by litesong »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #583 on: November 02, 2018, 07:13:52 PM »
Sometimes it is actually useful to look at current conditions to determine what is actually going on vs. always looking at 10 day forecasts which are often not accurate and indicates what possibly might happen.

Here is today's 2 meter temperature anomaly. There is one very notable feature although I am certain their are more to point out by people far more knowledgeable than me.

Hudson Bay is surrounded by land that is considerably colder at 2 meters than the temperature over the water. This suggests to me that there is still a considerable amount of heat that needs to be given up to the atmosphere before we see rapid freeze.

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #584 on: November 02, 2018, 07:15:07 PM »
A few stats regarding Hudson's bay. The following site is related to Polar bear migration but has some interesting stats on freeze up. It's about last years freeze but has a fair bit of historical stats from Environment Canada.
https://polarbearscience.com/2017/11/13/w-hudson-bay-freeze-up-one-of-earliest-since-1979-not-closer-to-average/

Below, Hudson Bay sea ice coverage for the week of 26 November, 1971-2016 (CIS) shows that 1971 and 1981 were also years of late freeze-up along the coast of western Hudson Bay (although some years known to have had late freeze-up (e.g. 1983, Ramsay and Stirling 1988) show higher values than expected, likely reflecting ice coverage in the northern portion of the bay rather than along the west coast near Churchill):
There seem to be several seas in the Arctic which seem to be pretty much ignoring AGW and sea ice decline. 3 of them are the CAA, Baffin and Hudson Bay. Changes since 1979 are marginal in contrast with many other seas (- even the Central Arctic Sea) as the attached graphs seem to illustrate (which track the increase in open water over the years).

It is really bad propaganda to use one sea as a poster child - disappointment waits.
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sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #585 on: November 02, 2018, 09:33:11 PM »
Yeah but the D10 supports my pet theory occasionally so I get excited and start slinging predictions that I will defend against all comers and derail every conversation instead of keeping a cool head and doing the work.  I'm new here, but am I doing it right?

sorry i just see the predictions betting game as a toxic obsession WHEN it takes over the current observations thread.

start a YouTube truth channel for all that
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #586 on: November 02, 2018, 09:41:07 PM »
that big open water zone in the laptev is freezing now probably within a few days entirely.

this had to be expected at some point and is responsible for most of the steep climb of the ice extent graphs.

once that part is over-frozen i expect a slow down in freezing rate and re-joining of the lower extent years. after all the reminder on the pacific and the atlantic side i do not expect to join laptev in freezing speed, could take a while longer for them to re-freeze and the hudson will most probably remain in touch with the norms.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #587 on: November 02, 2018, 11:15:27 PM »
edit:
oops
retracted
« Last Edit: November 02, 2018, 11:50:04 PM by uniquorn »

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #588 on: November 03, 2018, 12:15:22 AM »
To continue the thoughts above, really the big question now on the horizon, after all isolated areas in the Arctic basin freeze over (Laptev very late indeed, ESS, most of Kara), is: What will the behavior be of those areas supported by external currents feeding in from the Atlantic and the Pacific - the Chukchi, Barents, CAB near Svalbard/FJL, and that unprotected part of Kara facing the Atlantic. I believe these areas which have sported open water for so long are well mixed and quite saline, so freezing could be strongly delayed.

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #589 on: November 03, 2018, 03:17:49 AM »
Yeah but the D10 supports my pet theory occasionally so I get excited and start slinging predictions that I will defend against all comers and derail every conversation instead of keeping a cool head and doing the work.  I'm new here, but am I doing it right?

Knock it off, you just made me laugh coffee out of my nose. (but yeah you're doing it right!)

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #590 on: November 03, 2018, 05:32:43 AM »

There seem to be several seas in the Arctic which seem to be pretty much ignoring AGW and sea ice decline. 3 of them are the CAA, Baffin and Hudson Bay. Changes since 1979 are marginal in contrast with many other seas (- even the Central Arctic Sea) as the attached graphs seem to illustrate (which track the increase in open water over the years).
These might indeed be seen ignoring the AGW for three different reasons. Hudson has always been only 1st year ice, Baffin depends on the export volume that has possibly increased in the pace of general decline and CAA is the garlic press for oldest surviving ice taking over a year to melt.
Hudson's outlet is so far north, if it wasn't it might already be partially ice free the whole year. The oulet is so close to Greenland ice sheet it's possible that Labrador and partly Baffin needs to lose it's winter ice (save the icebergs) for it to become like some norther Baltic coast.
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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #591 on: November 03, 2018, 06:15:53 AM »
Oscar headed for the polar cell as extratropical cyclone.  GFS responds appropriately.
That will be a huge heat injection into NW Europe and potentially the Barents.
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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #592 on: November 03, 2018, 08:02:07 AM »
October 29 - November 2.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #593 on: November 03, 2018, 08:43:39 AM »
Precipitable Water for October 65N-90N. 2018 is second highest.

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #594 on: November 03, 2018, 08:55:21 AM »
Oscar headed for the polar cell as extratropical cyclone.  GFS responds appropriately.
That will be a huge heat injection into NW Europe and potentially the Barents.


it really smacks the polar vortex around also.  in GFS forecast, the timing of that storm entering the arctic and 10hPa displacement are bang on.  so far the GFS only arrived at a split in one run, 18Z Oct 31, and that was at the farthest end of 15 days out.  anyway, I read somewhere that extratropical cyclones can result in a SSW event, so I've been watching it close.

There's also a bit of a blocking high over eastern Europe right up to the "impact" but it's not super sticky.  Wouldn't be the earliest PV split, I think Nov 2014 was?

figure from https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00030.1
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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #595 on: November 03, 2018, 11:25:17 AM »
Quote from: gerontocrat on November 02, 2018, 07:15:07 PM
" There seem to be several seas in the Arctic which seem to be pretty much ignoring AGW and sea ice decline. 3 of them are the CAA, Baffin and Hudson Bay. Changes since 1979 are marginal in contrast with many other seas (- even the Central Arctic Sea) as the attached graphs seem to illustrate (which track the increase in open water over the years)."
The fresher colder Beaufort meltwater/ex-Siberian river waters pass through the CAA into Baffin and tides/currents carry them into Hudson, a very early freeze in Hudson may be a proxy for increased surface flow through CAA. 

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #596 on: November 03, 2018, 12:55:55 PM »
It's quite far out, but there seems to be a fairly big storm on T+8 ECMWF over the Arctic. Would it have a big effect on ice? Pic attached

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #597 on: November 03, 2018, 02:29:07 PM »
October 29 - November 2.

Thanks Aluminium, I appreciate your frequent posts!

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #598 on: November 03, 2018, 03:27:08 PM »
Yesterday, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 910,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Today, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 1 million square kilometers more than 2016.

 To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent is a total 1.05 million square kilometers more than 2016! Now, 2018 is even approaching the sea ice extent average of the 2010's, despite High Arctic temperatures leaping to 10degC above average.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 07:12:00 PM by litesong »

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #599 on: November 03, 2018, 04:42:57 PM »
October 29 - November 2.
Ah, Laptev freezes inwards. Great animation. Thanks again
Cooling the outside by heat pump.