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SimonF92

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #600 on: November 03, 2018, 09:30:12 PM »
Western Hudson beginning to freeze south of Arviat. Freeze onset date appears to be on track to be early;

(Their freeze-up threshold is 20% extent)

Andrews, J., Babb, D. and Barber, D.G., 2018. Climate change and sea ice: Shipping in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Foxe Basin (1980–2016). Elem Sci Anth, 6(1), p.19. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.281

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #601 on: November 03, 2018, 10:07:46 PM »
Today's ESRL ice and snow thickness forecast, nov2-9 (experimental)
https://floe.keytwist.net/esrl-daily-forecasts/2018-11-02 for other and historical forecasts.
These 0-10 day, experimental, sea ice forecasts are produced by the NOAA Physical Sciences Division from a fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere model called CAFS. CAFS is run daily and posted online at 2 UTC. The model is initialized with the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sea ice concentrations. The model is forced at the lateral boundaries by 3-hourly GFS forecasts of winds, temperature, and water vapor.


edit: added polarview, ess/laptev gap, nov2
« Last Edit: November 03, 2018, 10:29:59 PM by uniquorn »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #602 on: November 04, 2018, 11:51:59 AM »
Just like to add my appreciation to both Aluminium and Uniquorn for their regular chart updates.

In this forum we have often mentioned before about the reluctance of ice to form over open ocean - the usual pattern being ice grows outwards from the main packs or from the continent edges.

I don't know if this autumn is exceptional but I can recall three separate incidences, illustrated by Aluminium's 5 day Uni Bremen videos, where ice formed away from the pack. First in the Beaufort, then in the Laptev and now at the end of October, a patch formed in the Kara. Look at the Bremen image of Oct 29 and compare with Nov 2 image.

I wonder are there special salinity issues this autumn (patches of low salinity surrounded by high) allowing isolated freeze ups ? Or is it just Aluminium's vids are highlighting something we may have been missing in previous years - given most of this action takes place in complete darkness ?

Neven

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #603 on: November 04, 2018, 01:29:40 PM »
Some temperature graphs (NCEP reanalysis) for October 2018. Arctic-wide second highest on record, Siberian highest (1.5 °C warmer than previous record from 2007), Pacific second highest, Canadian relatively cold, Atlantic less so (8th highest, I believe):
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litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #604 on: November 04, 2018, 08:54:53 PM »
Yesterday, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 910,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Today, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 1 million square kilometers more than 2016.

 To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent is a total 1.05 million square kilometers more than 2016! Now, 2018 is even approaching the sea ice extent average of the 2010's, despite High Arctic temperatures leaping to 10degC above average.
To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent is 1.12 million square kilometers MORE than 2016! Now, 2018 also has MORE sea ice extent than the average of the 2010's, despite very warm High Arctic temperatures since direct solar radiation disappeared from the Arctic.

Neven

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #605 on: November 04, 2018, 10:06:10 PM »
To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent is 1.12 million square kilometers MORE than 2016! Now, 2018 also has MORE sea ice extent than the average of the 2010's, despite very warm High Arctic temperatures since direct solar radiation disappeared from the Arctic.

We have the extent and area thread for this kind of info. This thread is for discussing what is causing the numbers to fluctuate.
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litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #606 on: November 04, 2018, 11:34:06 PM »
We have the extent and area thread for this kind of info. This thread is for discussing what is causing the numbers to fluctuate.
..... which I have delineated several times, while posting these shifting, rising & falling sea ice extents.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #607 on: November 05, 2018, 01:40:19 AM »
Today saw a very rapid advance in Hudson Bay, Foxe Basin, and Baffin Bay. Obviously the ice is advancing elsewhere but I am focusing on these areas because they are the only ones + vs. normal. The polar vortex has plunged into Canada, and by D5, it should be sitting over Hudson Bay.





HB is likely to freeze very rapidly over the next two weeks as water temps over half of its area are already at freezing or below, and the situation of the PV is likely to worsen through D10 if modeling is correct. The only recent year with similar ice conditions is 2015, however, momentum that year stalled and cold was much less prevalent (2018 has ice over most Canadian lakes in the Shield -- 2015 at this point, did not). Therefore I am predicting the earliest refreeze of Hudson Bay going back to the 1980s-1970s (I would think 1972 holds the record, but if someone can verify that would be great).

Simultaneously: Bering is scorching, as is Barentz. The early refreeze of a region with relatively low latitude will further encourage polar heat transport in both the PAC and ATL, IMO, and we are probably in for many surprises as we approach the New Year, as I expect minimal refreezing to occur in both aforementioned seas ^.

Finally: see attached for 2018-10-31 minus 2017-10-31. There has been massive cooling off of the US NE / Canadian Maritimes, and the High Arctic is also scorching, and an enormous amount of heat has accumulated in the NPAC.

sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #608 on: November 05, 2018, 03:30:06 AM »
...
The polar vortex has plunged into Canada, and by D5, it should be sitting over Hudson Bay.
...

Am I looking at the wrong thing?  The polar vortex?  Looks like its over Svalbard on Day 5 and the rest of the forecast has it settling down over Greenland after the wave of Oscar smacks it around a bit.

https://imgur.com/a/Z1L8w4T
gif of 11 day forecast shows it centering on the other side of Greenland from Hudson Bay.  Hudson Bay?  Am I looking at the polar vortex temperature and heights at 10mb or have I got it wrong?
« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 03:41:39 AM by sark »
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #609 on: November 05, 2018, 03:46:13 AM »
...
The polar vortex has plunged into Canada, and by D5, it should be sitting over Hudson Bay.
...

Am I looking at the wrong thing?  The polar vortex?  Looks like its over Svalbard on Day 5 and the rest of the forecast has it settling down over Greenland after the wave of Oscar smacks it around a bit.

https://imgur.com/a/Z1L8w4T
gif of 11 day forecast shows it centering on the other side of Greenland from Hudson Bay.  Hudson Bay?  Am I looking at the polar vortex temperature and heights at 10mb or have I got it wrong?
Maybe it is just "a" polar vortex. Or an extremely frigid airmass. Perhaps I was incorrect in terminology but my point stands (apologies!)

sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #610 on: November 05, 2018, 04:06:08 AM »
I just don't see it in the forecast.  To me it looks like the PV at any level is displaced, and the timing is coincident with the influence of an extratropical cyclone entering the arctic.  As the GFS outlook has evolved, the PV moves away from the north pole toward Svalbard and Siberia, but quickly recovers around Nov 15

I wouldn't predict necessarily but it seems to indicate milder weather mid-month for the Eastern US and Canada.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #611 on: November 05, 2018, 04:10:05 AM »
I just don't see it in the forecast.  To me it looks like the PV at any level is displaced, and the timing is coincident with the influence of an extratropical cyclone entering the arctic.  As the GFS outlook has evolved, the PV moves away from the north pole toward Svalbard and Siberia, but quickly recovers around Nov 15

I wouldn't predict necessarily but it seems to indicate milder weather mid-month for the Eastern US and Canada.

If you did predict, you would be horribly wrong, lol. Ensembles are gung ho on extreme cold.







Oh, and the OP EURO for good measure.


oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #612 on: November 05, 2018, 04:18:41 AM »
Great, now we are up to 11-day forecasts. Silly me, I didn't even know they existed.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #613 on: November 05, 2018, 04:20:01 AM »
Great, now we are up to 11-day forecasts. Silly me, I didn't even know they existed.
They are ensemble forecasts (used for long-range) and it was a direct refutation of the idea it would be warm mid-month... all the models show otherwise. Do you know what ensemble means?

They are also 6-10 or 7-11 day forecasts, not D11. Those are 5-day averages. Why are you so nasty when you could just read the maps properly instead?

Also: the maps D2-3-4-5 are the same as ^, which is why I posted those first. I suggest you stop attacking me and start actually contributing to discussion. In case you are as bad at math as you are at reading, 120 hours out is 5 days away.

« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 04:26:01 AM by bbr2314 »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #614 on: November 05, 2018, 04:36:23 AM »
PS:

weather.us has direct day-to-day comparisons now for very many variables! Unfortunately the data only goes back to 2017, but here is the year over year for snow depth.



You can toggle back and forth for many other variables as well (SWE, water temp, sea ice, pretty much anything).

Go here and input whatever you want, just change region / timestamp etc:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/massachusetts/gusts-3h-mph/20171030-0600z.html

The ^ data is from the EURO. On that note, it is interesting that EURO is the only model where water temps and sea ice appear to be un-static, perhaps explaining one of the reasons why it is so much more accurate than the GFS / CMC, both of which lack these options for toggling (and whose consistently terrible output leads me to believe they do not incorporate it beyond 00z hr data as well).

sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #615 on: November 05, 2018, 04:45:31 AM »
yeah it gets cold because of a trough.  the polar vortex is not really a ground level phenomenon.  saying the polar vortex is centered over hudson bay is just wrong.  that's a trough.

after the (perhaps I should specify) stratospheric polar vortex settles down, as forecast, it would tend to indicate milder conditions.  granted, somewhat after mid-month.

not all cold is "polar vortex" although that's how it gets used in the popular vernacular ever since that one PV split in like Nov 2014
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #616 on: November 05, 2018, 04:58:28 AM »
yeah it gets cold because of a trough.  the polar vortex is not really a ground level phenomenon.  saying the polar vortex is centered over hudson bay is just wrong.  that's a trough.

after the (perhaps I should specify) stratospheric polar vortex settles down, as forecast, it would tend to indicate milder conditions.  granted, somewhat after mid-month.

not all cold is "polar vortex" although that's how it gets used in the popular vernacular ever since that one PV split in like Nov 2014
Is it just a trough though? Modeling has it cut off completely as riding builds overhead. I think it is a secondary PV. But again, I am possibly wrong. I just know modeling shows it getting frigid.

One additional note: the Great Lakes are frigid compared to normal, and the last two years. I think they will freeze completely and thoroughly this year with melt-out delayed til May and June in Superior and Huron.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/

11/3/2018 vs. 11/3/2016:

Superior: whole volume, -1.8F, surface, -3.8F
Michigan: whole volume, -3.1F, surface, -4.2F
Huron: whole volume, -2.6F, surface, -3.8F
Erie: whole volume, -4.6F, surface, -5.1F
Ontario: whole volume, -2.6F, surface, -3.4F

I would think that the combination of the cold in HB / GL (both residuals of this frigid spring and late melt), are additional indicators for a very severe winter in the US & Canadian East. Superior is probably going to freeze VERY solidly.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 05:10:57 AM by bbr2314 »

wdmn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #617 on: November 05, 2018, 05:33:09 AM »
Superior has been cold compared to the last several years, but rate of cooling slowed down a lot around mid-October.

I doubt highly Superior will stay frozen until June.

aperson

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #618 on: November 05, 2018, 05:40:19 AM »
yeah it gets cold because of a trough.  the polar vortex is not really a ground level phenomenon.  saying the polar vortex is centered over hudson bay is just wrong.  that's a trough.

after the (perhaps I should specify) stratospheric polar vortex settles down, as forecast, it would tend to indicate milder conditions.  granted, somewhat after mid-month.

not all cold is "polar vortex" although that's how it gets used in the popular vernacular ever since that one PV split in like Nov 2014

I think it would be wise to indicate whether one is talking about the stratospheric polar vortex (as you are referring to) vs the tropospheric polar vortex (as bbr is referring to).
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #619 on: November 05, 2018, 05:49:33 AM »
Superior has been cold compared to the last several years, but rate of cooling slowed down a lot around mid-October.

I doubt highly Superior will stay frozen until June.
Thank you for that graph! I don't think it will stay entirely frozen into June but some ice may remain. In 2015, ice lasted well into May (and June, I think?)

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #620 on: November 05, 2018, 07:44:12 AM »
October 31 - November 4.

Neven

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #621 on: November 05, 2018, 07:53:04 AM »
The question is whether the refreeze will remain rapid, or slow down now as things have filled up now and the ice edge gets closer to the Pacific and Atlantic. My guess is the latter, but you never know.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #622 on: November 05, 2018, 07:57:52 AM »
The 00z EURO tonight is completely insane. Canada is BEYOND frigid and cross-polar flow activates D5-6. After the first PV rotates down an even colder airmass enters as a ridge bridge spans the Bering and the High Arctic drains into Canada.





The question is whether the refreeze will remain rapid, or slow down now as things have filled up now and the ice edge gets closer to the Pacific and Atlantic. My guess is the latter, but you never know.

If modeling is correct, the PAC front is going to pause completely, however, there should be very rapid gains as Hudson and Baffin freeze up through 11/15-20. Once Hudson is done, Baffin will continue, but I imagine we will see a leveling / slowdown in refreeze ~11/20, as most of the "easy" ice will be formed by then.

El Cid

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #623 on: November 05, 2018, 08:24:11 AM »
The question is whether the refreeze will remain rapid, or slow down now as things have filled up now and the ice edge gets closer to the Pacific and Atlantic. My guess is the latter, but you never know.

I would also guess that refreeze will come to a stop.
There has been a blocking high above E-Europe for a while and there is strong ridging on T+5 on the ECMWF, bringing warm air to Svalbard and the ATL front in general:

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #624 on: November 05, 2018, 03:47:25 PM »
...
The polar vortex has plunged into Canada, and by D5, it should be sitting over Hudson Bay.
...

Am I looking at the wrong thing?  The polar vortex?  Looks like its over Svalbard on Day 5 and the rest of the forecast has it settling down over Greenland after the wave of Oscar smacks it around a bit.

https://imgur.com/a/Z1L8w4T
gif of 11 day forecast shows it centering on the other side of Greenland from Hudson Bay.  Hudson Bay?  Am I looking at the polar vortex temperature and heights at 10mb or have I got it wrong?
GFS about 3 days out is showing blooms of heat rolling into the Arctic from both sides of the basin, and an outbreak of cold air across the Canadian shield just east of the Rockies, and a matching breakout of cold air (it appears) into central Siberia across the eastern Barents.

Heat blowing in from the oceans on either side squeezing the cold air out of the arctic the way tooth paste would blow out if you dropped it on the floor and stepped on it hard enough.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #625 on: November 05, 2018, 04:24:17 PM »
Oooops. Comment by bbr2314 that I was replying to has disappeared.

this reminds me of asking some users who predicted the hudson would be frozen by the 15th of november still believe so?

i for my part don't believe that and think that hudson is holding out quite well. during summer there were repeated theories of very early refreeze of hudson and even more extreme predictions for greater parts of canada.

i personally do not believe in any wide spread re-glacification, after all the globe is warming and sooner or later retreat of the ice will happen everywhere.
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).

CAA is frozen earlier than ever and HB will do the same. So why don't you go bother looking at some graphs before launching into a random attack on me?

Also, SH: I deleted post regarding GB because the cold air went down into North America this wrong, and not Europe. 500MB was a bit deceiving, oops.

Will dismissed by many earlier as unlikely, this prediction is looking more likely by the day.

binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #626 on: November 05, 2018, 06:16:57 PM »
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).


Will dismissed by many earlier as unlikely, this prediction is looking more likely by the day.

Well isn't looking any more likely now than then. Hudson is less than 10% frozen at the moment, and Foxe Basin is still around 50% (and thus far from "completely iced").
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #627 on: November 05, 2018, 06:46:20 PM »
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).


Will dismissed by many earlier as unlikely, this prediction is looking more likely by the day.

Well isn't looking any more likely now than then. Hudson is less than 10% frozen at the moment, and Foxe Basin is still around 50% (and thus far from "completely iced").
Foxe is almost completely iced, Hudson will follow rapidly. If not 11/15, 11/20.



I would not be surprised if we saw some "spontaneous" ice appear in NE Hudson Bay (the fresh part) as well, as the refreeze advances in general.

Finally, the CFS is usually not great, but it has trended extremely solidly towards a very robust PV over HB in December, coincident with the early freeze up we are now seeing. And that is not a coincidence. !

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #628 on: November 05, 2018, 06:52:53 PM »
yeah it gets cold because of a trough.  the polar vortex is not really a ground level phenomenon.  saying the polar vortex is centered over hudson bay is just wrong.  that's a trough.

after the (perhaps I should specify) stratospheric polar vortex settles down, as forecast, it would tend to indicate milder conditions.  granted, somewhat after mid-month.

not all cold is "polar vortex" although that's how it gets used in the popular vernacular ever since that one PV split in like Nov 2014
Is it just a trough though? Modeling has it cut off completely as riding builds overhead. I think it is a secondary PV. But again, I am possibly wrong. I just know modeling shows it getting frigid.

Which would make it a cut-off low if this is the case and, yes, you are wrong IMHO.

One additional note: the Great Lakes are frigid compared to normal, and the last two years. I think they will freeze completely and thoroughly this year with melt-out delayed til May and June in Superior and Huron.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/

11/3/2018 vs. 11/3/2016:

Superior: whole volume, -1.8F, surface, -3.8F
Michigan: whole volume, -3.1F, surface, -4.2F
Huron: whole volume, -2.6F, surface, -3.8F
Erie: whole volume, -4.6F, surface, -5.1F
Ontario: whole volume, -2.6F, surface, -3.4F

I would think that the combination of the cold in HB / GL (both residuals of this frigid spring and late melt), are additional indicators for a very severe winter in the US & Canadian East. Superior is probably going to freeze VERY solidly.

While I understand you are referring to water temperature anomalies, it would be helpful if you would be more specific in calling these temperatures out as such so as not to mislead the reader.

Here are the actual surface temperatures for the Great Lakes. Hardly frigid.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #629 on: November 05, 2018, 07:00:12 PM »
yeah it gets cold because of a trough.  the polar vortex is not really a ground level phenomenon.  saying the polar vortex is centered over hudson bay is just wrong.  that's a trough.

after the (perhaps I should specify) stratospheric polar vortex settles down, as forecast, it would tend to indicate milder conditions.  granted, somewhat after mid-month.

not all cold is "polar vortex" although that's how it gets used in the popular vernacular ever since that one PV split in like Nov 2014
Is it just a trough though? Modeling has it cut off completely as riding builds overhead. I think it is a secondary PV. But again, I am possibly wrong. I just know modeling shows it getting frigid.

Which would make it a cut-off low if this is the case and, yes, you are wrong IMHO.

One additional note: the Great Lakes are frigid compared to normal, and the last two years. I think they will freeze completely and thoroughly this year with melt-out delayed til May and June in Superior and Huron.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/

11/3/2018 vs. 11/3/2016:

Superior: whole volume, -1.8F, surface, -3.8F
Michigan: whole volume, -3.1F, surface, -4.2F
Huron: whole volume, -2.6F, surface, -3.8F
Erie: whole volume, -4.6F, surface, -5.1F
Ontario: whole volume, -2.6F, surface, -3.4F

I would think that the combination of the cold in HB / GL (both residuals of this frigid spring and late melt), are additional indicators for a very severe winter in the US & Canadian East. Superior is probably going to freeze VERY solidly.

While I understand you are referring to water temperature anomalies, it would be helpful if you would be more specific in calling these temperatures out as such so as not to mislead the reader.

Here are the actual surface temperatures for the Great Lakes. Hardly frigid.
I think it is a tropospheric PV as the other poster mentioned before. Cut-off lows do not generate their own cold air, and are "dying" cold airmasses without a sufficient source -- PVs are the opposite (at least, I think this is what differentiates the two, or at least it is what differentiates them in my mind).

And you are correct re: GL SSTs, they are cold vs. normal but not outright frigid. I think that should change somewhat through D10 as we see "trough" or "vortex" descend to the general vicinity, with widespread snows and frigid air temps all around.

PS: here are Hudson Bay water temps as just initialized by 12z EURO. Things are cooling off very quickly.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #630 on: November 05, 2018, 07:13:05 PM »
A complete icing over of Lake Superior is not unprecedented, happening most recently in 2015. Ice cover on the Great Lakes is highly variable year over year so predicting a complete icing over this winter is a little like betting on the toss of a dice. If it were to ice over, this does not presage a coming ice age.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/historicalAnim/

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #631 on: November 05, 2018, 07:16:31 PM »
A complete icing over of Lake Superior is not unprecedented, happening most recently in 2015. Ice cover on the Great Lakes is highly variable year over year so predicting a complete icing over this winter is a little like betting on the toss of a dice. If it were to ice over, this does not presage a coming ice age.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/historicalAnim/
I didn't say it did? I think the momentum is significant here though, and that later melt / earlier freeze limits summer insolation uptake. Factors can override this of course, but in itself it is yet another feedback, however minor. And, crucial to this thread, I think the Great Lakes will contribute to ice totals in a greater capacity than normal (again, however relatively minor vs. everything else).

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #632 on: November 05, 2018, 07:30:34 PM »
A complete icing over of Lake Superior is not unprecedented, happening most recently in 2015. Ice cover on the Great Lakes is highly variable year over year so predicting a complete icing over this winter is a little like betting on the toss of a dice. If it were to ice over, this does not presage a coming ice age.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/historicalAnim/
I didn't say it did? I think the momentum is significant here though, and that later melt / earlier freeze limits summer insolation uptake. Factors can override this of course, but in itself it is yet another feedback, however minor. And, crucial to this thread, I think the Great Lakes will contribute to ice totals in a greater capacity than normal (again, however relatively minor vs. everything else).

If you look at the 25 year animation of Great Lakes ice cover maximums for a trend, it is towards less ice cover rather than more. Whatever momentum we are building is towards a year round, ice free Great Lakes.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/historicalAnim/

The only Great Lake which approaches icing over on a fairly frequent basis is Lake Erie, the most southern lake and this is due to its shallow depth relative to the other lakes.

« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 07:46:22 PM by Shared Humanity »

be cause

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #633 on: November 05, 2018, 07:44:39 PM »
.. and litesong gets jumped on for an interesting factoid .. I love the moderation on this forum .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #634 on: November 05, 2018, 07:54:07 PM »
The latest modeling (12z) continues the idea of an extremely cold period in North America. But it is also interesting to note that this pattern bears a very marked similarity to November of 2014. See below for the 11/2014 500MB anomaly map, and today's 12Z EURO map (5-day average) for later in the period. This is probably very bad news for the High Arctic as the ensuing year shed all the volume gains of 2013-2014. We are entering the same position, but without any real gains. Thus, I think 2019 is a good contender for record minimum volume.

In comparing the below, I would say it is actually uncanny how similar the two years are.


Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #635 on: November 05, 2018, 08:02:01 PM »
If it were to ice over, this does not presage a coming ice age.

I didn't say it did?

No, you didn't but, given your predilection for pushing this theory on multiple threads, you should understand why I said this.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #636 on: November 05, 2018, 08:02:51 PM »
If it were to ice over, this does not presage a coming ice age.

I didn't say it did?

No, you didn't but, given your predilection for pushing this theory on multiple threads, you should understand why I said this.
No problem.  :)

sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #637 on: November 05, 2018, 09:09:24 PM »
This is losing its utility.

and the polar vortex isn't a ground level feature.  not all cold is a polar vortex.  maybe that's how it's used in the common vernacular, but meteorologists and climatologists have been correcting that usage since at least November of 2014 when the actual polar vortex split and the term garnered widespread attention.

Any analysis of polar vortex is done at 70mb, 50mb, or 10mb.  If you wanna call all arctic air the polar vortex, that's going to confuse the structural feature with surface phenomenon.

Sure, the PV winds are prevalent down to 350 mb, 500 mb, whatever.  it's not the winds at the ground level.

and I'll take my answer logged off.
I am not a scientist

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #638 on: November 05, 2018, 09:24:56 PM »
This is losing its utility.

and the polar vortex isn't a ground level feature.  not all cold is a polar vortex.  maybe that's how it's used in the common vernacular, but meteorologists and climatologists have been correcting that usage since at least November of 2014 when the actual polar vortex split and the term garnered widespread attention.

Any analysis of polar vortex is done at 70mb, 50mb, or 10mb.  If you wanna call all arctic air the polar vortex, that's going to confuse the structural feature with surface phenomenon.

Sure, the PV winds are prevalent down to 350 mb, 500 mb, whatever.  it's not the winds at the ground level.

and I'll take my answer logged off.
You do realize the projected upcoming pattern is almost identical to 11/2014?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #639 on: November 05, 2018, 10:59:13 PM »
October 31 - November 4.
Thanks for the animations. Beaufort ice looks quite solid on amsr2. A bit more fractured on worldview and polarview, oct5th (Amundsen gulf, bottom left) https://tinyurl.com/y9ca4f9w

jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #640 on: November 06, 2018, 01:12:53 AM »
This is losing its utility.

and the polar vortex isn't a ground level feature.  not all cold is a polar vortex...
*Thank you* sark.

What is happening looks far more like matching breakouts over the Canadian Shield and trans Ural Siberia, along with intrusions of heat across The Bering and Barents/Greenland seas.
This space for Rent.

sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #641 on: November 06, 2018, 05:16:12 AM »
bbr, do anyone a favor and google "polar vortex"

I'm not going to waste my time arguing with inexperienced people who post prodigious amounts of nonsense supporting some crank pet theory they carry as a preconceived notion.  I don't see you doing the work, just wasting everyone's time with your fantasizing and belief.  The endless stream of predictions and the seeming lack of awareness of basic meteorology, all the drama and accusations, it tells me everything about your personality and nothing about the conditions in the Arctic.

I don't care about your personality or your crank pet theories, at all.  Nobody cares about mine.  I'm not here to pretend I'm some prodigy oracle of futurecasting.  Take that trash to YouTube, you've got enough to set up a successful channel there.

if a guy like me can see through this crap, then this forum is no more valuable than YouTube cranks, Guy McPherson, and other disinformation spewing attention whores who have no intention of doing the hard work of science.

I'm done with it.
I am not a scientist

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #642 on: November 06, 2018, 05:21:30 AM »
A complete icing over of Lake Superior is not unprecedented, happening most recently in 2015. Ice cover on the Great Lakes is highly variable year over year so predicting a complete icing over this winter is a little like betting on the toss of a dice. If it were to ice over, this does not presage a coming ice age.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/historicalAnim/
The animation is wonderful! Thank you.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #643 on: November 06, 2018, 05:37:27 AM »
bbr, do anyone a favor and google "polar vortex"

I'm not going to waste my time arguing with inexperienced people who post prodigious amounts of nonsense supporting some crank pet theory they carry as a preconceived notion.  I don't see you doing the work, just wasting everyone's time with your fantasizing and belief.  The endless stream of predictions and the seeming lack of awareness of basic meteorology, all the drama and accusations, it tells me everything about your personality and nothing about the conditions in the Arctic.

I don't care about your personality or your crank pet theories, at all.  Nobody cares about mine.  I'm not here to pretend I'm some prodigy oracle of futurecasting.  Take that trash to YouTube, you've got enough to set up a successful channel there.

if a guy like me can see through this crap, then this forum is no more valuable than YouTube cranks, Guy McPherson, and other disinformation spewing attention whores who have no intention of doing the hard work of science.

I'm done with it.
You are rude. There is a PV entering Canada. You can insult me all you want but it won't change the fact it is going to be frigid in Canada and that a PV is relocating to Hudson Bay / Foxe Basin. But keep insulting me!  :)

In your previous post you said 2014 was "an actual polar vortex split". 2018 is mirroring 2014 to a tee. So what? Are you the idiot?

What do you think this map shows? Is it the polar vortex or a polar vortice? Does splitting hairs over this definition f*cking matter? IT IS GOING TO BE COLD IN CANADA.



If you want to insult me with baseless words please take it to PM instead of cluttering this thread with your nonsense. Thanks!

PS: you are now on my ignore list so there is no use replying. Neven, please feel free to delete this as well if you see fit.

sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #644 on: November 06, 2018, 06:59:08 AM »
bbr

I don't read your posts.  I don't read the endless debate about your pet theory.  I don't care.  It's not good information.
I am not a scientist

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #645 on: November 06, 2018, 07:39:44 AM »
bbr

I don't read your posts.  I don't read the endless debate about your pet theory.  I don't care.  It's not good information.

So, stop reacting to it! If you think someone is a troll, don't feed him. If bbr2314 is out of line and posts too many D10 forecasts, I'll tell him.
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binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #646 on: November 06, 2018, 07:40:28 AM »

Well isn't looking any more likely now than then. Hudson is less than 10% frozen at the moment, and Foxe Basin is still around 50% (and thus far from "completely iced").
Foxe is almost completely iced, Hudson will follow rapidly. If not 11/15, 11/20.


Well you keep saying that Foxe is almost completely iced, but it's easy to check on Worldview. Two days ago Foxe basin was at least 1/3 open water, and the rest quite dispersed ice, so perhaps around 50% open water. If you have any evidence to the contrary, then please post it here!

And perhaps Hudson will follow rapidly, but by throwing out dates like 11/15 and 11/20, are you saying that Hudson will be "almost completely iced" by those dates, or what? Hudson bay with 50% ice cover by the end of November is not that unusual, and there really isn't anything that indicates that it will happen earlier now.

If you want to claim otherwise, it's not enough to publish weather predictions and confabulate. You will have to compare with earlier periods when the conditions were similar and the Hudson did freeze over "almost completely" by the middle of November.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #647 on: November 06, 2018, 08:15:32 AM »
The upper of the two images shows Uni Bremen false-color ice concentration from yesterday, Foxe basin is helpfully circled. Hudson Bay is almost totally ice free, and the same goes for the Hudson Strait.

The extent and area graphs to the right show all three seas (Hudson Bay, Foxe and Hudson Strait) with some 10% ice cover at the moment.

Below that is WorldView from two days ago, dispersed ice in the north of Foxe, open waters in the south. Percentage wise probably more then 50% covered - but "nearly iced over" is as far from true now as it was a week ago.

So BBR when you make your prediction of Hudson Bay being 75% covered in five or 10 days time, are we talking about the Bay itself, or all three seas?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

HapHazard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #648 on: November 06, 2018, 11:37:47 AM »
bbr

I don't read your posts.  I don't read the endless debate about your pet theory.  I don't care.  It's not good information.
Just put him on ignore - makes this forum more readable. IDK why they're still here, honestly.

SimonF92

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #649 on: November 06, 2018, 03:52:38 PM »
Arguing as passionate scientists/researchers/hobbyists is healthy so long as it is respectful.

I for one found this paper informative; I think people are at odds because they are speaking largely in cross-purposes;

One can "split" and the other cannot;

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00212.1