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oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #700 on: November 14, 2018, 03:16:49 AM »
I am accepting the error? The forecast was still close to reality. It isn't even 11/15 yet. And it won't be frozen 75% by then. But 11/20? I am not so sure. The point is not that I am wrong or right, the point is that HUDSON BAY IS FREEZING EARLY and this has impacts to sensible weather elsewhere (IMO).

Bering has ALWAYS frozen before Hudson since XXXX years ago. Maybe centuries? But in the modern record, I highly doubt we will have ever had as much open water in Bering vs. Hudson as we will a week or so from now. This relative differential is very important because it means cold airmasses can center on North America much earlier and much more steadily vs. normal, anchored by the heat domes in Bering / Barentz on both sides (+500MB anomalies), and this will result in MAJOR oceanic warmth pushing towards the High Arctic as the continental albedo / oceanic heat pump is kicking into ever-higher gear.
Hudson Bay is NOT FREEZING EARLY. Ice area growth in HB is exactly what it was in other recent years, as shown by data from the accurate AMSR2. We are following in 2015's footsteps almost to a pixel. Note: the graph is still in Nov 12th, so 3 more days until the original claim.
Doubling down on your unwarranted prediction by moving it to Nov 20th will not help. The best predictor for HB is its past recent behavior, and this predictor says 75% ice cover will not be reached before Dec 1st.

As for the rest, I am pretty sure 2017 had it worse than this year, as the Chukchi then was much delayed. Bering does not actually begin freezing meaningfully before Dec 1st in any of the recent years so the claim on Bering vs. Hudson is either worded incorrectly or just false.
About the basic claim underlying a lot of your prophesying, that ice in Bering/Barents compared to HB (or that NA snow cover) sets the weather over North America, I am unqualified to judge, but I am far from confident that you are getting it right - without seeing support from published science or seeing a detailed trend analysis of the past, preferably in chart form, since at least 2000, without cherry-picking, wording it correctly and precisely and checking for what you are actually claiming.
Please note - I am not trying to be nasty or anything. But when you make extraordinary claims repeatedly on a scientific forum, you must be able to back them with extraordinary proof, or expect lots of criticism and disbelief.
If you would just stick to the facts, after they actually occur, comparing to a long trend of past years rather than just a single year of choice, your posts could be much more to the point, as you seem to have a lot of knowledge and are willing to put the time investment.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #701 on: November 14, 2018, 05:16:33 AM »

I think the freeze up of the Chukchi is going to be interesting. Will it freeze quickly despite how warm it was earlier in the year? The Laptev freeze was so rapid. What an astounding amount of latent heat of fusion the earth radiated away in just a few days. Wow. I wonder if the Chukchi will go the same way.

I don't get all the debate over the Hudson as it's clearly following the pattern of other years +/- a few days. I'm sorry BBR, I stopped reading your posts, and I'm sorry, my erudite fellow forumers, I also stopped reading posts that relate to them. BBR, I am certain you have good points to make, but In my opinion you are shrouding them in too much speculation to be worth the effort to unpick the logic of your hypothesis. It's simply not worth my time.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #702 on: November 14, 2018, 07:58:08 AM »
^why bother writing a reply to me if you aren't reading?  lol

00z EURO = WOW +500MB NATL... 585dm over Scandinavia!

For all who are bad at math: 96 hours is four days out (days have 24 hours)


aperson

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #703 on: November 14, 2018, 09:47:07 AM »
computer janitor by trade

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #704 on: November 14, 2018, 12:02:50 PM »
As far as here in the UK are concerned our MetO went on record over last low solar to show a pattern of northern blocking in the N.Atlantic which , for us in NW Europe, can mean a long fetch from Siberia making it all the way to UK/Ireland.

The winter of 09/10 provided the UK with just that but it only takes a little tweak of that northern block to see SE airs or SW airs bathing us over the depths of winter?

As for the basin itself?

If it leads to a stable polar night jet setting up then you might see 'yesteryear' type ice formation with the cold all locked into the basin without leaks?

I'm not buying it as 2012 stands between us and our 09/10 winter. The near seasonal opening of the Pacific side of the basin ( on top of our atlantic sides reluctance to hold onto ice) must have added another belt of energy into the mangling of the Polar night Jet/messing with the polar troposphere so altering the polar front around the temperate zones?

So I do not expect a 'repeat' of last low solar?

Extremes 'Yes' indeed but freezing? No we have warmed more and the basin harvests far more solar than it could last low solar so impacts /skews the trop/lower strat far more than last time.

Buckle up though ( unless in California thern be prepared to RUN!!!! )
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #705 on: November 14, 2018, 08:18:16 PM »

I think the freeze up of the Chukchi is going to be interesting. Will it freeze quickly despite how warm it was earlier in the year? The Laptev freeze was so rapid. What an astounding amount of latent heat of fusion the earth radiated away in just a few days. Wow. I wonder if the Chukchi will go the same way.

I don't get all the debate over the Hudson as it's clearly following the pattern of other years +/- a few days.
The Chukchi area gain is accelerating
Attached is the whole year graph for Hudson to show its total ordinariness.
The Kara is looking to do a Laptev on current trends.
The Central Arctic Sea is a bit of a surprise.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #706 on: November 14, 2018, 08:38:00 PM »
2x yes

a) original post (later repeated until it was inevitable)  as well as the general far off reality postings, predictions, 10+ days forecasts that only serve to derail the useful discussion and last but not least the predictin for a new imminent ice-age (re-glacification) in canada. all this belongs together to sooner or later react before muting. without ignore list i would probably not even read certain threads, this way i only see quotes and mostly just chuckle and enjoy that the BS mostly evades me.

b) +1

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #707 on: November 14, 2018, 09:59:26 PM »
as you seem to have a lot of knowledge and are willing to put the time investment.

over all an extremely great post (as usual) and to the point, includes the last sentence which is about my reaction to his first post ever about a theory i shared (and was wrong) ;)

i love people who think out of the box but it's a difficult task to use language perfectly balanced to not fall into "that" trap. unfortunately my english and and at times impatience to look up better terms and re-read before posting make me often fail on that task which is why i love your posts, they more or less mirror what i WANT to say, only in a perfect manner.

thanks
« Last Edit: November 14, 2018, 10:59:03 PM by magnamentis »

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #708 on: November 14, 2018, 10:04:42 PM »
It is funny how all the random old people here don't like model output...

I don't like any model output over five (used to be three) days from present period.  Whether weather or climate.

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #709 on: November 14, 2018, 10:16:03 PM »
Magna have no worries, your English is very good and you are well undestood.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #710 on: November 14, 2018, 11:00:36 PM »
Magna have no worries, your English is very good and you are well undestood.

thanks, thing is that i compare my english skills to my german (mother tongue) and in comparison it's (felt) horrible ;) ;)

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #711 on: November 15, 2018, 08:39:54 AM »
November 10-14.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #712 on: November 15, 2018, 08:33:25 PM »

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #713 on: November 16, 2018, 06:38:10 AM »
A guy at NASA just came out with a report saying we will have unusually cold weather starting in about 6 weeks because of persistent lack of sunspot activity. This low has been predicted for years and we’ll see how it affects earth temperatures. Who know but maybe we will get heavy freezing this year over the arctic and see a much needed recovery to ice such as we haven’t seen for decades.

If there is to be such a recovery we need two things: very strong and persistent ice formation this freezing season and cool 2019 with slow ice melt to preserve ice going into next year’s freeze.

Sorry for the late response but I've been a bit bored with Arctic Ice lately.  Google for 'NASA cold weather satellite' finds a few media articles in the last few days.  The daily mail makes this claim and is nice enough to link a source.  The prediction was made in September and here is the key quote:

Quote
“We see a cooling trend,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”

They refer to the thermosphere - which starts about 80km above the surface.  Interesting but probably not at all relevant to surface conditions.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

johnm33

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #714 on: November 16, 2018, 11:13:34 AM »
"A guy at NASA"
 Zharkova predicts, based on a decline in the strength of the suns magnetic field, that the cooling effect will last for up to 30 years, and suggests that the biggest problem, from a climate prespective, is that the growing season will shorten and harvest failures are almost inevitable. [that Gov. should begin to stockpile food reserves] The prime cause of this escapes me, the subject is glossed/passed over, iirc Zharkova says the effect is like opening the greenhouse window causing a rapid loss of heat to space.
 If the above is true, with the ocean being as warm as it is we may see huge energy gradients between the arctic and continental heartlands driving extreme weather. Of course the North Atlantic is cooler than we're used to, this will create a lower background temp. for any weather action in western Europe. With Labrador and Barents being so warm some unusual snowfalls may occur. Interesting times

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #715 on: November 16, 2018, 11:36:17 AM »
"A guy at NASA"
 Zharkova predicts, based on a decline in the strength of the suns magnetic field, that the cooling effect will last for up to 30 years, and suggests that the biggest problem, from a climate prespective, is that the growing season will shorten and harvest failures are almost inevitable. [that Gov. should begin to stockpile food reserves] The prime cause of this escapes me, the subject is glossed/passed over, iirc Zharkova says the effect is like opening the greenhouse window causing a rapid loss of heat to space.
 If the above is true, with the ocean being as warm as it is we may see huge energy gradients between the arctic and continental heartlands driving extreme weather. Of course the North Atlantic is cooler than we're used to, this will create a lower background temp. for any weather action in western Europe. With Labrador and Barents being so warm some unusual snowfalls may occur. Interesting times

Zharkova is a solar physicist with no expertise or publications on the link with solar activity and the Earths's climate, or anything else to do with climatology.

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #716 on: November 16, 2018, 12:06:43 PM »
Call me a skeptic on this one.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #717 on: November 16, 2018, 12:39:50 PM »
" A guy at NASA says"
"Zharkova predicts".

No links even to a press release, let alone a paper or study.

Pathetic and binned.

ps: Forgot to add the thanks to Micheal Hauber for squashing "the man from NASA".
« Last Edit: November 16, 2018, 01:37:11 PM by gerontocrat »
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johnm33

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #718 on: November 16, 2018, 01:35:40 PM »

Sleepy

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #719 on: November 16, 2018, 01:49:29 PM »
Yeah, saw that one. GWPF.

Edit; updated the solar cycle thread:
A small collection of papers. Zharkova critique in No 3.
1. Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age
2. The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from
recent reconstructions and climate simulations (posted in #11 above with Fig3)
3. Comment on the paper by Popova et al. “On a role of quadruple component of magnetic field in defining solar activity in grand cycles”
4. Predicting space climate change
« Last Edit: November 16, 2018, 02:44:57 PM by Sleepy »
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #720 on: November 16, 2018, 02:11:36 PM »
Link to Zharkovas recent talk here
John, John.

Neven will be furious. No links to the dark side allowed, and the gwpf is one of the darkest. Scum financed by scum.

So I deleted your link in your "solar cycle" from this post.

Professor Valentina Zharkova gave a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis at the Global Warming Policy Foundation in October, 2018.


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Neven

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #721 on: November 16, 2018, 02:45:57 PM »
I removed the link. My blood is boiling.  ;)
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Sleepy

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #722 on: November 16, 2018, 03:03:10 PM »
While you're at it Neven, maybe kill or un-link those three to principia-scientific (Heller, Dellingpole etc) in that thread as well?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2250.msg147879.html#msg147879
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #723 on: November 16, 2018, 10:44:50 PM »
Polar View image of Foxe Basin (almost closed in) 15th November.

Prince Charles Island is to the top with Baffin's Foxe Peninsula to the bottom of the image.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #724 on: November 17, 2018, 01:02:11 AM »
The Hudson refreeze now has momentum. Should be mostly done in a few days. NYC just had its
largest early season snowstorm on record btw, with 6.4" measured in Central Park yesterday.




Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #725 on: November 17, 2018, 03:22:27 AM »
Bbr's combination of poor methodology/research and misleading speculation is like the rubbish one finds on denialist sites. Moreover, his egoic need to be right and his inability to converse with others in a respectful way is also indicative of the righteous divisiveness that has infected public discourse on climate change and other politicized issues.

It's nice to come to ASIF and get a reprieve from all that social media madness. I understand the importance of allowing for disagreeing points of view, but isn't enough, enough? The Arctic has plenty of drama on its own and plenty of areas of debate that are 'in' the realm of actual science.   

While I'm glad that bbr's previous very juvenile and nasty post was deleted, i had hoped at least that he would've been banned for a while.  Oh well ???


bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #726 on: November 17, 2018, 03:30:29 AM »
Bbr's combination of poor methodology/research and misleading speculation is like the rubbish one finds on denialist sites. Moreover, his egoic need to be right and his inability to converse with others in a respectful way is also indicative of the righteous divisiveness that has infected public discourse on climate change and other politicized issues.

It's nice to come to ASIF and get a reprieve from all that social media madness. I understand the importance of allowing for disagreeing points of view, but isn't enough, enough? The Arctic has plenty of drama on its own and plenty of areas of debate that are 'in' the realm of actual science.   

While I'm glad that bbr's previous very juvenile and nasty post was deleted, i had hoped at least that he would've been banned for a while.  Oh well ???
You seem pretty angry. I will be off by a few days re: HB. I don't know why people keep repeating this because obviously 11/15 was incorrect and too early. Give it another week. My overall point has been snow + cold in Canada and surrounding water bodies (CAA HB BB) and overarching warmth elsewhere and that has been 100% correct this autumn.



Also: it is astonishingly cold over much of the high latitudes relative to normal, especially in the Canadian Shield. Readings are 20C or more BELOW normal.



So instead of being angry and wrong maybe you can just be quiet.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2018, 03:41:48 AM by bbr2314 »

binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #727 on: November 17, 2018, 06:08:10 AM »
It's amazingly warm in the high latitutudes relative to normal, especially in Western Canada and Greenland, with positive anomalies reaching almost 20 degrees Centigrade over the Canadian Rockies and the central Greenland ice cap. A persistent cold cell hovers over the Canadian Archipelago and down to the Western Hudson Bay, with negative anomalies reaching almost 15 degrees Centigrade.

The three months forecast also shows (with a large pinch of salt) amazingly warm temperatures over the entire Arctic, particularly over the Bering area, but also significant over Greenland and Svalbard. Also surprisingly above average temperatures over the Canadian Archipelago!
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binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #728 on: November 17, 2018, 06:08:42 AM »
Bbr's combination of poor methodology/research and misleading speculation is like the rubbish one finds on denialist sites. Moreover, his egoic need to be right and his inability to converse with others in a respectful way is also indicative of the righteous divisiveness that has infected public discourse on climate change and other politicized issues.

Well said sir!
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #729 on: November 17, 2018, 08:58:44 AM »
November 12-16.

Alexander555

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #730 on: November 17, 2018, 09:46:47 AM »
Aluminium, is it not possible to make it a little bit bigger ? So that we can see what happens east end west of greenland .

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #731 on: November 17, 2018, 10:32:19 AM »


The three months forecast also shows (with a large pinch of salt) amazingly warm temperatures over the entire Arctic, particularly over the Bering area, but also significant over Greenland and Svalbard. Also surprisingly above average temperatures over the Canadian Archipelago!

Looking at that chart, I dont see it like that at all !

Besides the fact it is the CFS long range, which is often well wrong (pinch of salt as you say), but chart to me looks cold over most of the Arctic Sea Ice covered areas. I cant see how you make out the CAA is warm. I can only make out just one or two dots of the first yellow colour +0.25 C in predominant blue.

Yes we do see usual suspects south Chukchi, Bering, Svalbard with high anomalies, which is basically just the CFS saying it thinks ice will be very slow there or not form at all. But thats almost a no-brainer.

binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #732 on: November 17, 2018, 11:15:35 AM »


The three months forecast also shows (with a large pinch of salt) amazingly warm temperatures over the entire Arctic, particularly over the Bering area, but also significant over Greenland and Svalbard. Also surprisingly above average temperatures over the Canadian Archipelago!

Looking at that chart, I dont see it like that at all !

Well, that was like the whole point! I see things that you don't - and my guess is as good as yours as to which is "right" - however, the very unusal warmth over Bering and significant warmth over the Siberian seas, over Svalbard, and significantly, over the entire Greenland ice cap I find truly remarkable.

But does it mean anything? Can I make predictions? Have I made comparisons? No - so it's all just talking off the top of my head.
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Neven

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #733 on: November 17, 2018, 11:56:51 AM »
As long as bbr2314 doesn't try to spread his pet theory into too many threads, I think there's room for him here, so don't dump on him too much. But by all means, point out where he is wrong or the forecasts he posts, don't pan out. How will we get through winter without a bit of heated disagreement?  ;)
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #734 on: November 17, 2018, 01:38:37 PM »
As long as bbr2314 doesn't try to spread his pet theory into too many threads, I think there's room for him here, so don't dump on him too much. But by all means, point out where he is wrong or the forecasts he posts, don't pan out. How will we get through winter without a bit of heated disagreement?  ;)
Thanks, Neven.
After all, like the Farmers' Almanac, some of the predictions will come good. There is a lot of snow in Quebec.
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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #735 on: November 17, 2018, 03:44:17 PM »


The three months forecast also shows (with a large pinch of salt) amazingly warm temperatures over the entire Arctic, particularly over the Bering area, but also significant over Greenland and Svalbard. Also surprisingly above average temperatures over the Canadian Archipelago!

Looking at that chart, I dont see it like that at all !

Well, that was like the whole point! I see things that you don't - and my guess is as good as yours as to which is "right" - however, the very unusal warmth over Bering and significant warmth over the Siberian seas, over Svalbard, and significantly, over the entire Greenland ice cap I find truly remarkable.

But does it mean anything? Can I make predictions? Have I made comparisons? No - so it's all just talking off the top of my head.

I am not sure that you “see” things that others don’t. Rather, I think you “focus” on things that others don’t.  There is enough warmth and cold in those forecast to make either case.  Someone else could do a pixel by pixel analysis to arrive at an “average” conclusion.  But what’s the point?  These are just forecasts.  These posts seems to emphasize the worst in the alarmist/denialist argument.  Each looks at the numbers which support their particular beliefs only.  The same could be said for the freezing of the Baffin and Barents seas.  This is just weather, and as is typical with weather, where there is warmth on one area, there is cold in another.  I understand that it is fun to make predictions.  But remember that is all they are.  Bbr made his Hudson sea predictions, and I will say no more about it.  Currently, the freeze is slightly ahead of the past decadal average.  Is that indicative of a higher maximum than last year?  Probably, but not with any degree of certainty.  FWIW, I think the Arctic sea ice maximum will be higher than last season.  But that is not really a stretch.

Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #736 on: November 17, 2018, 04:23:44 PM »
FTB, I wouldn't hold ny hopes too high. I'm not sure what the new report is, but this subject has been discussed in a thread titled "Sunspot activity as a proxy for TSI".
FTB is making stuff up, SSTs are still at record highs in most of the High Arctic and the + gains in 2018 are due to early refreeze of Foxe, Baffin, and HB. Whenever someone says "but solar!" it is cause for automatic dismissal as it means they are a denier.

Am I? I’m just trying to assimilate all the data available. Is name calling really conducive to enlightening discussion?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/amp/

<Any reply to this can go into a solar thread, thanks; N.>
« Last Edit: November 17, 2018, 05:40:15 PM by Neven »
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #737 on: November 17, 2018, 07:00:25 PM »
amsr2-uhh overlaid onto mercator 0m salinity, oct1-nov16. The salinity scale is only valid for areas of open water.
edit: The salinity animation is used here to show some longer term ocean related trends and currents as opposed to shorter term temperature and weather related events. All of which affect ice growth and loss to varying degrees.
Mercator Ocean is a model, but analysis of buoy data in the Beaufort supports its validity as a useful tool.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2018, 01:31:53 PM by uniquorn »

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #738 on: November 18, 2018, 01:28:22 PM »
Yesterday, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 910,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Today, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent jumped to 1 million square kilometers more than 2016.

 To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent is a total 1.05 million square kilometers more than 2016! Now, 2018 is even approaching the sea ice extent average of the 2010's, despite High Arctic temperatures leaping to 10degC above average.
To-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent is 1.12 million square kilometers MORE than 2016! Now, 2018 also has MORE sea ice extent than the average of the 2010's, despite very warm High Arctic temperatures since direct solar radiation disappeared from the Arctic.
///////
The above posts were preparing for the very present widely diverging Arctic sea ice quantities now occurring in to-date extents between 2016 & 2018. A few days ago, 2018 Arctic sea ice extent was only ~ 0.8 million square kilometers more than 2016. While to-date 2016 High Arctic temperatures were wildly sky-high record levels, compared to normal, today's 2018 High Arctic temperatures are less than 3degC above normal, the lowest anomaly over the last ~ 2 months. It is NOT coincidental that 2018 sea ice has plastered an extra 100,000 square kilometers of ice into the Arctic in 1 day. Also NOT coincidental, but TOTALLY surprising at the time, 2016 Arctic sea ice started losing ice. In only a few days, the gap between 2016 & 2018 ripped wider by 4/10ths of a million square kilometers to a total difference of 1.2 million square kilometers. As wide a gap as this most recent diversion from each other is, it can be expected that even wider 2016-2018 splits in sea ice quantities will occur in the next days ahead.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 05:39:24 PM by litesong »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #739 on: November 18, 2018, 01:29:02 PM »
Despite the low temperatures, Nares is still exporting and, surprisingly, there is still movement in the Mclure Strait.
Worldview brightness temperature,band15,night.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #740 on: November 18, 2018, 02:27:39 PM »
Thanks Uniquorn. The Nares Strait will often stay open/exporting well into the Spring. To quote this post from Tor Bejner:

Nares Strait is often (always? in recent years) open at least into December (but I don't have the statistics).  In 2006-07, it never closed.  I understand that in other years no effective bridge formed, too.  Neven, in 2013, recommended The Broken Bridges of Nares for those who want to learn some history of Nares ice bridges.

It's been quite a turnaround since the low points in late September/October. NSIDC charctic extent value for Nov 17th shows that in the 13 years since 2005, only 3 years (2008,2014 and 2015) have had greater extent.

Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #741 on: November 18, 2018, 05:10:22 PM »
The freezing season is very strong of late. After falling to lowest ever 2018 is now in 11th place, exceeding every year since 2006 in ice extent except 2008 and 2014. Can’t be sure what’s driving this since temps in arctic are not below average.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #742 on: November 18, 2018, 10:57:43 PM »
<snippage>Neven, in 2013, recommended The Broken Bridges of Nares for those who want to learn some history of Nares ice bridges.

Thanks for this, good sunday afternoon reading.
odden ice tongue, 1993. Fram Strait blocked.

colchonero

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #743 on: November 18, 2018, 11:23:13 PM »
The freezing season is very strong of late. After falling to lowest ever 2018 is now in 11th place, exceeding every year since 2006 in ice extent except 2008 and 2014. Can’t be sure what’s driving this since temps in arctic are not below average.

Well at least we don't have extreme anomalies(except in Greenland sea right now, that should hang tere for couple of days), and there was certainly some heat loss caused by late refreeze (the negative side of that was/(still is) will the ice thicken enough before the spring, because of the late freeze.

For example when you look at the mid-range forecast (D3-D7 now, although models have seen this coming in most of the latest runs) it seems to be pretty good for the sea ice, having in mind we are approaching the end of November, which was not that common in the past years.  There is a dominant high pressure over heart of CAB (where ice needs to thicken)  which should result in clear skies, and most importantly it is a relatively cold HP  system (it is not coming from ridging from the south and so it won't bring ridiculous +ve temp850hPa anomalies).   Also, we have normal or even a bit below normal Temp850hPa  over Canadian side reaching Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait (places where ice needs to form yet) and also along the Atlantic "seaboard" (front+Kara&Barents). Not to mention persistent (at least forecasted) northerlies that should push the ice towards Chukchi and also on the Atlantic side, although not that strong. 

But then, Idk if this weather will help much, since the water got really warm especially around Bering Strait and it didn't cool off completely yet. But that's something you always have to count on lately (it would have been a big surprise if the water wasn't this warm, since globally we haven't had a month below normal for a very long time)

Temp 2m anomalies were pretty positive largely (not entirely!) due to lack of ice especially on the Russian side. This time last year (and through whole Winter) we had southerlies all over the place on the pacific side
« Last Edit: November 18, 2018, 11:31:38 PM by colchonero »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #744 on: November 18, 2018, 11:30:41 PM »
The "strong refreeze" narrative is a bunch of nonsense. There is more heat than ever in the high-latitude oceans (Bering and Barents). The refreeze has been led by the situation in Baffin, CAA, and Hudson Bay, and the early refreeze of these regions for reasons that portend a very LATE refreeze in the high Arctic are exactly why this trope is ridiculous. 2018 has seen a quick refreeze of certain peripheral regions due to conditions resulting from the worst-ever anomalies further to the north and this pattern will continue through winter, while numbers may even be higher than 2017 through May, I expect the bottom to fall out by the end of May or June again (mimicking closely what happened in spring 2015).

colchonero

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #745 on: November 18, 2018, 11:40:00 PM »
The "strong refreeze" narrative is a bunch of nonsense. There is more heat than ever in the high-latitude oceans (Bering and Barents). The refreeze has been led by the situation in Baffin, CAA, and Hudson Bay, and the early refreeze of these regions for reasons that portend a very LATE refreeze in the high Arctic are exactly why this trope is ridiculous. 2018 has seen a quick refreeze of certain peripheral regions due to conditions resulting from the worst-ever anomalies further to the north and this pattern will continue through winter, while numbers may even be higher than 2017 through May, I expect the bottom to fall out by the end of May or June again (mimicking closely what happened in spring 2015).

I know many here have tried to explain to you and it didn't work, but as of this morning there is NO SIGNIFICANT EARLY REFREEZE of Hudson Bay. Look at UH data (at least I think it's UH) that has been posted several times. First significant area uptick (20k+) when you look at NSIDC 5-day average that gerontocrat is posting, was today.  If you keep saying something is happening, that won't make it true. It might happen in the next couple of days (strong gains) but as of now it DIDN'T, despite your constant writing.


Because of that, even some of your points that are valid people won't take seriously, instead they'll think you are spreading misinformation again.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #746 on: November 18, 2018, 11:44:44 PM »
The "strong refreeze" narrative is a bunch of nonsense. There is more heat than ever in the high-latitude oceans (Bering and Barents).

Bering Sea = "high latitude" ?

Now that's what I call a bunch of nonsense.

Quick Google Search. Bering Sea Latitude = 56.9 degrees North.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #747 on: November 18, 2018, 11:48:44 PM »
The "strong refreeze" narrative is a bunch of nonsense. There is more heat than ever in the high-latitude oceans (Bering and Barents). The refreeze has been led by the situation in Baffin, CAA, and Hudson Bay, and the early refreeze of these regions for reasons that portend a very LATE refreeze in the high Arctic are exactly why this trope is ridiculous. 2018 has seen a quick refreeze of certain peripheral regions due to conditions resulting from the worst-ever anomalies further to the north and this pattern will continue through winter, while numbers may even be higher than 2017 through May, I expect the bottom to fall out by the end of May or June again (mimicking closely what happened in spring 2015).

I know many here have tried to explain to you and it didn't work, but as of this morning there is NO SIGNIFICANT EARLY REFREEZE of Hudson Bay. Look at UH data (at least I think it's UH) that has been posted several times. First significant area uptick (20k+) when you look at NSIDC 5-day average that gerontocrat is posting, was today.  If you keep saying something is happening, that won't make it true. It might happen in the next couple of days (strong gains) but as of now it DIDN'T, despite your constant writing.


Because of that, even some of your points that are valid people won't take seriously, instead they'll think you are spreading misinformation again.
It is happening. Go look at EOSDIS and stop screeching, jeez. You sound like an angry parrot.


colchonero

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #748 on: November 18, 2018, 11:52:18 PM »
It's not being angry, it's about making important parts more visible, like when you write LATE for example. I can do that either by making it bold, or by using capital letters. But I'll make it bold in the future, so there isn't misunderstanding.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #749 on: November 18, 2018, 11:54:31 PM »
It's not being angry, it's making important parts more visible, like when you write LATE for example. I can do that either by making it bold or using capital letters. But I'll make it bold in the future so, there isn't misunderstanding.
It is happening much earlier than normal and AMQRTWTWT will show this imminently, but in the meantime, I would advise looking at actual EOSDIS imagery instead of trusting some random computer's output. It can be visually informative. The refreeze will be mostly done in a few days.