I am accepting the error? The forecast was still close to reality. It isn't even 11/15 yet. And it won't be frozen 75% by then. But 11/20? I am not so sure. The point is not that I am wrong or right, the point is that HUDSON BAY IS FREEZING EARLY and this has impacts to sensible weather elsewhere (IMO).
Bering has ALWAYS frozen before Hudson since XXXX years ago. Maybe centuries? But in the modern record, I highly doubt we will have ever had as much open water in Bering vs. Hudson as we will a week or so from now. This relative differential is very important because it means cold airmasses can center on North America much earlier and much more steadily vs. normal, anchored by the heat domes in Bering / Barentz on both sides (+500MB anomalies), and this will result in MAJOR oceanic warmth pushing towards the High Arctic as the continental albedo / oceanic heat pump is kicking into ever-higher gear.
Hudson Bay is
NOT FREEZING EARLY. Ice area growth in HB is exactly what it was in other recent years, as shown by data from the accurate AMSR2. We are following in 2015's footsteps almost to a pixel. Note: the graph is still in Nov 12th, so 3 more days until the original claim.
Doubling down on your unwarranted prediction by moving it to Nov 20th will not help. The best predictor for HB is its past recent behavior, and this predictor says 75% ice cover will not be reached before Dec 1st.
As for the rest, I am pretty sure 2017 had it worse than this year, as the Chukchi then was much delayed. Bering does not actually begin freezing meaningfully before Dec 1st in any of the recent years so the claim on Bering vs. Hudson is either worded incorrectly or just false.
About the basic claim underlying a lot of your prophesying, that ice in Bering/Barents compared to HB (or that NA snow cover) sets the weather over North America, I am unqualified to judge, but I am far from confident that you are getting it right - without seeing support from published science or seeing a detailed trend analysis of the past, preferably in chart form, since at least 2000, without cherry-picking, wording it correctly and precisely and checking for what you are actually claiming.
Please note - I am not trying to be nasty or anything. But when you make
extraordinary claims
repeatedly on a scientific forum, you must be able to back them with extraordinary proof, or expect lots of criticism and disbelief.
If you would just stick to the
facts,
after they actually occur, comparing to a long trend of past years rather than just a single year of choice, your posts could be much more to the point, as you seem to have a lot of knowledge and are willing to put the time investment.