Chukchi is on course to be iced over by this weekend.
Overall this freezing season has been sluggish. Especially as it turns out, on the Atlantic side. Back on Oct 16th last, things were looking dire too for the Chukchi.
GoSouthYoungins made a reasonable prediction back then. I tended to agree with most of this. But I held out more hope for the Chukchi
I think we can make a pretty good guesstimate already for how the freezing season will pan out:
The Laptev Sea freeze will be several weeks delayed. This may be countered (not in effect, but in extent measurements) by an early freeze in the Hudson Bay.
The Chukchi Sea will likely be the real story (which will probably lead into Bering Sea anomalies as well). The delays will probably be record setting.
ESS, Beaufort, and CAA will probably be quicker to freeze than in recent years.
Barents and Kara have non-impressive SST anomalies but currently the ice edge is very far away. Likely nothing too interesting.
The other seas may change weather patterns but I don't think have a direct or predictable effect on the arctic, so I don't really care.
Agree, disagree?
I did go against the grain and suggested that it might not be so bad in the Chukchi. (This is of course all relatively speaking to the last two years. I do realise even now the Chukchi is still way behind climatology).
My prediction was based on the extensive stretch of old ice moving west across the Beaufort and also that something still remained of the ESS arm. Both of these might help ice extend into the Chukchi provided synoptics played ball - and they (synoptics) did. Making predictions re the Arctic can be a bit of a lottery and you can quickly end up with egg on your face but I was glad I made this one.
Agree, disagree?
I agree with that summation.
Only comment i would make is that maybe,if synoptic weather patterns play ball with an anticyclonic block to the northern Chukchi, that it might not be a record breaking late freeze up in the Chukchi.
The Beaufort seems to be advancing well and if there was persistent easterlies this would gradually cool down the very high Chukchi SSTs. There is a long way to go though, admittedly.
Of course Chukchi may still be bombarded with warm southerlies , like last winter, so will wait and see.
Given the very warm SSTs in the Chukchi, it has been quite a turnaround. NWS Alaska forecast for Dec 17th shows it ice covered.