The dynamic between HB / Chukchi + Bering will be very interesting to watch unfold. With snowcover at all-time highs for this time of year across North America, an extremely early refreeze of HB appears very likely.
At the same time, Chukchi and Bering are scorching, their adjacent landmass is less snowy vs. normal compared to the Canadian Shield, and the pair have the Pacific importing very saline warmth at depth (ongoing as I type).
The regime has shifted entirely from the days when Chukchi + Bering would be barely and seasonally ice free while HB was always seasonally ice free. We now have a ratio that has swung wildly towards more ice coverage in HB relative to Chukchi and Bering, which has worsened exponentially since 2012 (would be curious to see this graphed, actually -- someone please attempt to prove me wrong
).
Will an extremely early HB refreeze encourage even deeper / more persistent troughing than last winter across North America in 2018-19, and will this exacerbate a semi-stationary rex block over the Bering / Chukchi? Stay tuned, but it seems quite possible. If the opening days of the alleged "refreeze" thread are any indicator, both PAC and ATL fronts will be in worst-ever conditions come springtime maximum.
I would also think that an abundance of FYI relative to normal in certain areas come spring 2019 will result in a drop like this year, but worse (recall when Kara and HB both poofed seemingly overnight, after enduring with very high albedos until that point).
PS: if DMI is correct it looks like we see no real extent gains through 10/7 due to continuing melt / compaction across both PAC and ATL fronts. Some gains toward Beaufort offset by the hoopla elsewhere. Wonder if we end up worse than 2012 soon?