The 2018/2019 freezing season

[Niall Dollard]

Barrow is at -2C this morning under hours of clear skies. Barter Island at -1C. Not going to get much freezing done in this pattern. CAA will have to make up the difference.

Yes. Not much freezing in this part of Arctic and right up the Russian side.

But then again it isn't exactly the big Chinook and melt you were talking about 4 days ago either. 

Wouldn't get too comfy. Downsloping flow doesn't really get going until late tonight and tomorrow over NW Alaska as the core of stronger southerly flow aloft shifts eastward from the Strait. Shows up particularly well on the 850 charts. Not much has changed from when this was a 96 hour forecast.

And it did deliver high temperatures through much of northern Alaska, later on Oct 1st. 
(as this image from Rick Thoman shows). Notable is the record Oct high of 58 F at Umiat.

Good to see the full network of stations as there are large changes over short distances. Alaska is vast and the number of usual metar reporting stations is quite small.
 
Notable too is that the high temps never reached the north shore, with maxes only just above freezing at Utqiagvik/Barrow, Deadhorse and Kaktovik. The cold Beaufort Sea still holding influence there.

Judging by recent sat pics, the snow extent in NE Alaska appears unchanged. Recent days have shown a considerable difference between the snowier NE Alaska and the rest of the state. The ice remains close to the NE of Alaska - the cold Beaufort SSTs and low angle sun limiting the effects of this large High Pressure bulge there.

[Tealight]

The remaining ice island in the Beaufort Sea is now right next to 6-7°C warm Chukchi Sea water. One storm is probably enough finally melt out everything.

Click on image for animation.

[Dharma Rupa]

DMI North of 80 blips up.

(Yes, I know of it is somewhat limited value)

Not that limited.  Looking more and more like a maritime climate...and even if the "cold" is only relative more and more like Warm Arctic Cold Continents.

[oren]

DMI North of 80 blips up.

(Yes, I know of it is somewhat limited value)

It's a good way of tempting A-Team to step back in!

[Eco-Author]

Sorry I don't recall which upper ranking person here asked us to broaden out our look at GW.  To me, we run the biggest risk should Greenland ever get hit with even a single Hurricane Harvey/Florence sized rain bomb deep into the Greenland cap.  If it did, we might end up seeing it 'flush out' massive amounts of ice.  The ice doesn't have to melt to raise sea levels drastically in a single year.  From my limited knowledge, I also see no reason that the ultra 30C+ warmth that was over Britain this past year due to a high can't sit over Greenland for a month.

Do we know if greenland or CAA experianced record rainfall this year??  Do we have any charts on the migration of extreme rain moving north that may one day be all it needs to take out the ice north of Greenland?

[GoSouthYoungins]

The lack delay of refreezing in the CAB strikes me as one of those outliers that screams, "IT'S A WHOLE NEW PARADIGM!" Reminds me of the collapse in the summer of 2012, or the temperature spike xmas 2015, or the global extent decoupling from the pattern in Oct 2016, or the 3-peat 2014, 2015, 2016 global temperature records.

Atlantification and Pacification are now severe enough to significantly delay freezing. Interesting and scary times.

[slow wing]

U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-10-03...

[Aluminium]

September 29 - October 3.

[oren]

September 29 - October 3.

It's amazing how the Beaufort "Little Blob" is still there, clinging to life.

[gerontocrat]

September 29 - October 3.

It's amazing how the Beaufort "Little Blob" is still there, clinging to life.

And it shows clearly the uptick of ice export down the Fram shown by Wipneus' graph on the PIOMAS thread,
And it shows clearly the advance of the ocean towards 80 degrees latitude on the Pacific front,
And it shows clearly the retreat of the ocean in the last 2 days along the Atlantic front.

[uniquorn]

A rather slushy Atlantic ocean retreat.
Polarview this morning.
edit: It will probably get blown back tomorrow when the wind changes.
Tech note: contrast/brightness adjusted, clahe applied

Today's ecmwf waves and temps from windy.

[Phil.]

September 29 - October 3.

It's amazing how the Beaufort "Little Blob" is still there, clinging to life.

Calling it a 'Blob' now is a bit of a stretch.
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-10-04-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-1928768.495101541,507465.1448648144,-1506831.342994421,775623.9975593998

[Stephan]

Should there be an additional "DMI north of 80" plot that is not centered around the North Pole but shifted somewhat SW direction CAA where the center of coldness actually seems to be ?!?

[oren]

Should there be an additional "DMI north of 80" plot that is not centered around the North Pole but shifted somewhat SW direction CAA where the center of coldness actually seems to be ?!?

To start with, there should be a "DMI north of 80" plot that actually uses an area-weighted average for its plot...

[Ned W]

Should there be an additional "DMI north of 80" plot that is not centered around the North Pole but shifted somewhat SW direction CAA where the center of coldness actually seems to be ?!?

To start with, there should be a "DMI north of 80" plot that actually uses an area-weighted average for its plot...

Yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes. This!

WTF is the point of a spatial average that isn't area-weighted?

[litesong]

I see no reason to see slow extent gain changing to average increases for the next week or so.

Tho 2018 year's September Arctic sea ice extent low did not reach as low as the "2010's"  September yearly average extent low, the very slow 2018 daily extent increase had tied the "2010's" daily extent, with over a week left in September. The still slowly increasing 2018 daily extent into October, is now a full one third of a million square kilometers less than the average extent of the "2010's".
It is NOT a coincidence that past 10(?) day's Arctic temperatures over millions of square miles above the 80th parallel are holding strong against average decreases & are presently 8+degC OVER the average..... with no direct solar energy being received at the North Pole.   

[HapHazard]

It's a good way of tempting A-Team to step back in!

I wish. R.I.P. A-Team. 

[gerontocrat]

It is NOT a coincidence that past 10(?) day's Arctic temperatures over millions of square miles above the 80th parallel are holding strong against average decreases & are presently 8+degC OVER the average..... with no direct solar energy being received at the North Pole.   

Open water reached well beyond 80 degrees North along the Atlantic Front, and therefore high temperature anomalies North of 80 are likely to slow refreezing. But for most of the Arctic temperatures North of 80 are irrelevant.

Surface area above Arctic Circle  million km2    21.046  (8.13 million sq miles) Surface area above 80+ North    million km2          3.875  (1.50 million sq miles)

Mind you, the anomaly does show that the warmth coming from the Russian side has reached the North Coast of Greenland.

[be cause]

a little more dmi 80 news . Today the top of the world , however measured , managed a full 10'C above the day's mean of near -14'C . This record-breaking run of 8 days polar warmth means temps are where they should have been 30 days ago . This event will end eventually .. b.c.

[Dharma Rupa]

Open water reached well beyond 80 degrees North along the Atlantic Front, and therefore high temperature anomalies North of 80 are likely to slow refreezing. But for most of the Arctic temperatures North of 80 are irrelevant.

I'll bite my tongue for now but I find the combination of DMI 80N and CAB extent very interesting.

[gerontocrat]

a little more dmi 80 news . Today the top of the world , however measured , managed a full 10'C above the day's mean of near -14'C . This record-breaking run of 8 days polar warmth means temps are where they should have been 30 days ago . This event will end eventually .. b.c.

GFS suggests that by next Wednesday the anomaly north of 80 will be +ve but much lower. In contrast the overall Arctic anomaly will increase from the current +2.9 to +4.1 Celsius.  The temperature reading North of 80 can therefore be downright misleading if applied to the Arctic as a whole.

[Aluminium]

Wrangel Island is exceptionally warm for this time of year. Four consecutive days (October 1-4), daily mean temperature was higher than maximal temperature in any October since 1926 when observations began.

[Sterks]

It's a good way of tempting A-Team to step back in!

I wish. R.I.P. A-Team. 

What do you mean? Do you know the actual guy and he's gone? That'd be really sad.

[oren]

A-Team has stopped posting here in the past and then came back after a while. Here's to hoping for another comeback.
(And where the heck is Bob Wallace?)

[litesong]

  The temperature reading North of 80 can therefore be downright misleading if applied to the Arctic as a whole.

But, when compared to comparable average High Arctic temperatures back to 1958, with no or nearly no direct solar irradiation involved, N80 degC temperatures mean bunches of splaying  temperatures...... above & way above average.
//////
Also:
Of the High Arctic temperatures between 1958 & 1977 AND between waning direct solar energy days, 230 to 300, no days have had as wide a gap of 8+(9degc?)degC above average, as the present period. Not only have the 1958 to 1977 period NOT had temperature spikes as high as the present, neither have they had connected & extended days of heat, as the present.     

[be cause]

a little more dmi 80 news . Today the top of the world , however measured , managed a full 10'C above the day's mean of near -14'C . This record-breaking run of 8 days polar warmth means temps are where they should have been 30 days ago . This event will end eventually .. b.c.

GFS suggests that by next Wednesday the anomaly north of 80 will be +ve but much lower. In contrast the overall Arctic anomaly will increase from the current +2.9 to +4.1 Celsius.  The temperature reading North of 80 can therefore be downright misleading if applied to the Arctic as a whole.

Indeed gerontocrat (can we call you Mr G ? )  .. but cold is hard to find anywhere atm unless you are a Canadian snowflake   .
 The area North of 80 hosts most of the sea ice in the N. Hemisphere just now and it is not getting a good start to what should be deep-freeze season . It looks as if the Arctic cold is backed up against N. Greenland and the ice can do nothing but dodge and weave the weather . This is not how I imagined the Arctic when I was a child ! b.c.

[colchonero]

I think the refreeze should get going next week, by looking at forecasts (EC and GFS).

[slow wing]

U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-10-04...

[Feeltheburn]

Do we know if greenland or CAA experianced record rainfall this year??  Do we have any charts on the migration of extreme rain moving north that may one day be all it needs to take out the ice north of Greenland?

The rainfall in the arctic is so low as to be a desert. I wouldn't count on there ever being extreme rain sufficient to melt meters thick sea ice. To get rain there needs to be warm moist air colliding with cool air. That doesn't happen at the poles.

[Feeltheburn]

I see no reason to see slow extent gain changing to average increases for the next week or so.

Tho 2018 year's September Arctic sea ice extent low did not reach as low as the "2010's"  September yearly average extent low, the very slow 2018 daily extent increase had tied the "2010's" daily extent, with over a week left in September. The still slowly increasing 2018 daily extent into October, is now a full one third of a million square kilometers less than the average extent of the "2010's".
It is NOT a coincidence that past 10(?) day's Arctic temperatures over millions of square miles above the 80th parallel are holding strong against average decreases & are presently 8+degC OVER the average..... with no direct solar energy being received at the North Pole.   

Because of exceptionally low ice in CAA, this should, according to a point by Jim Hunt a while back during rapid refreeze, result in more heat being vented to the atmosphere above the area where there is open water. According to Jim Hunt, the amount of open water (or lack thereof) in the fall before hard refreeze affects how much heat is able vent from the ocean, with more open water facilitating increased discharge of heat from the ocean, which is a good thing. Such discharged heat can then escape from the atmosphere as heat does rather than being trapped under a layer of prematurely frozen ice.

[RoxTheGeologist]

Doesn't the heat in the ocean prevent the refreeze? Part of the process is the formation of the Mixed layer as the top part of the ocean turns over and allows the heat to escape? Freezing happens when the heat can be lost through conduction rather than convection.

I'd guess that it's not so much that the early ice formation prevents heat from escaping, it's that excess heat in the ocean has to escape before ice can form, and, at a guess, the anomalous warm weather we are seeing in the Arctic is because the ocean is still warm and heating the atmosphere.

The end result will be late refreeze and less FDDs to thicken the ice.

[oren]

The end result will be late refreeze and less FDDs to thicken the ice.

Good point. The freezing season has not started well. Hopefully it will not follow in the footsteps of 2016/7 all the way to April, or the Arctic will have to dodge another fat bullet in 2019.

[Eco-Author]

Watching the blow torch heat waves heading to the arctic these last couple years, it seems that its averaging about once a month??  This past spring was the first I noted the Jetstream going from 'splitting' to just outright separated into two.  During the beast from the east, it traveled backwards from far eastern Siberia to London. Hard to imagine what's next, and now we've got a brewing El Nino

[Sterks]

The end result will be late refreeze and less FDDs to thicken the ice.

Good point. The freezing season has not started well. Hopefully it will not follow in the footsteps of 2016/7 all the way to April, or the Arctic will have to dodge another fat bullet in 2019.

Yes Spring 2017 turned out to be colder than expected, the reason number 1, I think, was the snow anomaly in the highest latitudes of Siberia. And wasn't that anomaly influenced by a "warm & wet" Arctic Winter that received numerous Atlantic storms?
The chicken and the egg problem, the same I find with the "late refreezing" problem. Is it because there's a lot of ocean heat venting or because the Arctic keeps receiving extra warmth that was not there years ago?

[uniquorn]

Ocean heat will probably take longer to vent with warmer than normal incoming winds. Waves also probably discourage overturning.
edit: Windy ecmwf tempwave forecast oct5-14 (decided wave forecast was more relevant)

[magnamentis]

I see no reason to see slow extent gain changing to average increases for the next week or so.

Tho 2018 year's September Arctic sea ice extent low did not reach as low as the "2010's"  September yearly average extent low, the very slow 2018 daily extent increase had tied the "2010's" daily extent, with over a week left in September. The still slowly increasing 2018 daily extent into October, is now a full one third of a million square kilometers less than the average extent of the "2010's".
It is NOT a coincidence that past 10(?) day's Arctic temperatures over millions of square miles above the 80th parallel are holding strong against average decreases & are presently 8+degC OVER the average..... with no direct solar energy being received at the North Pole.   

Because of exceptionally low ice in CAA, this should, according to a point by Jim Hunt a while back during rapid refreeze, result in more heat being vented to the atmosphere above the area where there is open water. According to Jim Hunt, the amount of open water (or lack thereof) in the fall before hard refreeze affects how much heat is able vent from the ocean, with more open water facilitating increased discharge of heat from the ocean, which is a good thing. Such discharged heat can then escape from the atmosphere as heat does rather than being trapped under a layer of prematurely frozen ice.

as long as the air is barely cooler than the water there is not much venting. water is around zero and air temps over open water are around zero over large areas, changing daily of course.

further as i replied to neven earlier, look at the last 2 freezing seasons. there was a lot of open water and the refreeze was among the lowest exactly as was the sea-ice maximum.

so this theory no matter where it comes from, does not hold IMO, at least not under current conditions (warmer and warmer air and water  world wide) and at least not so simply put.

[magnamentis]

Ocean heat will probably take longer to vent with warmer than normal incoming winds. Waves also probably discourage overturning.
edit: Windy ecmwf tempwave forecast oct5-14 (decided wave forecast was more relevant)

yes, my post is kind of a ninja post, sorry but i replied before i got to yours

[bbr2314]

I see no reason to see slow extent gain changing to average increases for the next week or so.

Tho 2018 year's September Arctic sea ice extent low did not reach as low as the "2010's"  September yearly average extent low, the very slow 2018 daily extent increase had tied the "2010's" daily extent, with over a week left in September. The still slowly increasing 2018 daily extent into October, is now a full one third of a million square kilometers less than the average extent of the "2010's".
It is NOT a coincidence that past 10(?) day's Arctic temperatures over millions of square miles above the 80th parallel are holding strong against average decreases & are presently 8+degC OVER the average..... with no direct solar energy being received at the North Pole.   

Because of exceptionally low ice in CAA, this should, according to a point by Jim Hunt a while back during rapid refreeze, result in more heat being vented to the atmosphere above the area where there is open water. According to Jim Hunt, the amount of open water (or lack thereof) in the fall before hard refreeze affects how much heat is able vent from the ocean, with more open water facilitating increased discharge of heat from the ocean, which is a good thing. Such discharged heat can then escape from the atmosphere as heat does rather than being trapped under a layer of prematurely frozen ice.

This theory is incorrect also the CAA has retained more ice this year than any other this millennium (maybe even longer)

[oren]

Ocean heat will probably take longer to vent with warmer than normal incoming winds. Waves also probably discourage overturning.
edit: Windy ecmwf tempwave forecast oct5-14 (decided wave forecast was more relevant)

Thanks, this format is more easily readable.

[Dharma Rupa]

This is beginning to look serious:

[slow wing]

U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-10-05...

[Rob Dekker]

Here is an interesting report :

The Chukchi Sea is really warm this year, which results in a record late prediction of the onset of freezing there :

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, has released the 2018 experimental projected onset of sea ice freeze-up on the Chukchi Sea continental shelf.

Projection: Freeze onset on the Chukchi Sea continental shelf northwest of Icy Cape will begin the second week of December 2018. This is approximately 47 days later than the long-term mean (1981-2016).

The onset metric is defined by sea-ice concentration reaching 30% as determined by passive microwave observations and is based on in situ ocean temperature measurements.

https://www.arcus.org/files/news-items/files/experimental_projected_onset_of_freeze_-_chukchi_sea_continental_shelf_in_2018.pdf

[Aluminium]

October 1-5.

[meddoc]

This unusual Spike has to be something rapid, not just Heat from the Arctic Ocean+ Transport from Subtropics.
I'm guessing the open Beaufort/ Chukchi are amplifying by releasing a lot of CH4.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/soundings/iasi/m2/t2/D1/mr_ch4.070.gif
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/soundings/iasi/m1/t2/D1/mr_ch4.070.gif

[El Cid]

This unusual Spike has to be something rapid, not just Heat from the Arctic Ocean+ Transport from Subtropics.

But it WAS heat imported from the midlatitudes. We knew a few days ago that this was going to happen, no surprises here. Just look at the pic from Oct 4, the huge warmth incursion circled in red explains everything.
We also know from the forecasts that it is over, so 80N temps will probably cool pretty fast the next few days

[oren]

October 1-5.

It's amazing. We are into October and the inner basin refuses to seriously freeze anywhere. The only growth is occurring in the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort export terminals. The only real freezing is occurring in the sheltered CAA. Hopefully this will soon be over, but it's still disturbing.

[AmbiValent]

October 1-5.

It's amazing. We are into October and the inner basin refuses to seriously freeze anywhere. The only growth is occurring in the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort export terminals. The only real freezing is occurring in the sheltered CAA. Hopefully this will soon be over, but it's still disturbing.

Could it be said that the freezing itself would be on schedule if changed atmospheric and ocenanic patterns wouldn't just keep on pushing in heat essentially from outside the Arctic? (Which in earlier times would have remained outside the Arctic)

[Jim Hunt]

I remember Jim Hunt stating a year or two ago.....

My ears are burning! I don't suppose you have a link to the comment(s) where I supposedly stated such a thing do you?

In case it helps I do remember posting this link a couple of years ago:

http://mallemaroking.org/arctic-ocean-sensible-heat-loss/

Remember that is just one component and not the full heat budget - which is partially why it is inappropriate. For the full budget we have to include latent heat flux, long wave radiation, short wave radiation, energy changes through state changes when ice grows and decays, and so on. Also large heat fluxes lead to rapid sea ice growth which then insulates the ocean from further heat loss.

[FishOutofWater]

El Cid is quite right. An enormous dome of heat was lifted into the Arctic from the central Pacific by a breaking wave in the jet stream. This year exceptional heat in the north Pacific is amplifying blocking highs. What happens in the far north Pacific and Atlantic oceans frequently ends up in the Arctic. Over the past 3 winters heat advected from the Atlantic and Pacific has kept Arctic fall and winter temperatures much above normal. Clearly, the heat that has been transported by ocean currents into the Barents and Chukchi seas also warms the arctic.

The major stratospheric warming last February was the most obvious factor in last year's cold spring. It increased the snowfall in eastern North America and western Europe.

Obviously, more open water in the Arctic in the dark months increases potential heat loss, but it is just one factor. The import of atmospheric water vapor from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans decreases radiative heat loss. Storms and clouds decrease heat loss. If ice free areas in the Arctic are cloudy and stormy, less heat will radiate to space.

Strong winds tend to increase ocean mixing. Large waves also increase mixing and heat transfer to the atmosphere and they can pulverize sea ice.

We're dealing with a complex system in the Arctic. Attempts to oversimplify the complexity lead to misunderstandings.

[Jim Hunt]

The first Autumn 2018 thickness indications from CryoSat-2 via CPOM:

http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html