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Author Topic: The 2018/2019 freezing season  (Read 43490 times)

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #250 on: October 10, 2018, 06:23:04 AM »
Decision time. Either the CAB starts refreezing, or it's going into unknown territory.
The CAB actually is having some minimal refreezing. But the export machine has gone into overdrive. The heart of the ice N of Greenland 30 days ago is now located somewhere southwest of Svalbard and heading for what is probably rapid death in the Greenland Sea.

That thick MYI has been exported over ocean water that has heat, at depth. I would say it is a catastrophic event for volume. And it has also led to the continued retreat of the front across the rest of the ATL / Laptev.

DMI is too generous on thickness but it illustrates this well if you animate.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php

With continued major LP forecast for the ATL front this looks to *continue* for the foreseeable future. Extreme heat dominates on the PAC side as well, with a snow-free Alaska (probably due to the scorching Bering SSTs) further aiding what has become the most extreme autumnal +500MB event in the satellite record. We are simply blowing away 2012.

If DMI is correct, we see no appreciable extent gains through the 14th. It seems likely 2012 becomes #2 at some point soon if this is near correct.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 06:31:31 AM by bbr2314 »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #251 on: October 10, 2018, 06:48:53 AM »
Not good! Neven's refreeze is fake news! Fake news!!!  8) 8) 8)


El Cid

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #252 on: October 10, 2018, 09:23:34 AM »
Not good! Neven's refreeze is fake news! Fake news!!!  8) 8) 8)


Winter IS coming. ECMWF says that from this(1st image) we will get to the 2nd image in 10 days, a good 5-7 degrees lower on average at least at 850hPa.

The big question is of course: are we transitioning to a new climate mode (huge low pressure zones and storms above the Arctic, sucking in warm air from the midlatitudes, keeping the Arctic fairly warm, not letting the ice freeze, which keeps the stormy weather alive/low pressure systems in a feedback loop)?

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #253 on: October 10, 2018, 09:30:47 AM »
October 3-9.

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #255 on: October 10, 2018, 11:47:06 AM »
If things dont improve quick we will be meeting 2012 in less than a week and saying goodbye

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #256 on: October 10, 2018, 12:32:01 PM »
Just to clarify that the chart Aluminium posted is wipneus' area chart. Extent didn't dip significantly yesterday.
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

edit:it was a poor clarification
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 01:35:53 PM by uniquorn »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #257 on: October 10, 2018, 02:33:23 PM »
Safe to say that what is currently happening in the CAB is unprecedented. The real question is where will we be a month from now. Historically, the CAB is essentially frozen over in a month.

Absolutely riveting.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #258 on: October 10, 2018, 02:58:17 PM »
The big question is of course: are we transitioning to a new climate mode (huge low pressure zones and storms above the Arctic, sucking in warm air from the midlatitudes, keeping the Arctic fairly warm, not letting the ice freeze, which keeps the stormy weather alive/low pressure systems in a feedback loop)?

Are you suggesting that the southern wall of the Arctic Polar Cell is breaking down?

El Cid

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #259 on: October 10, 2018, 04:38:03 PM »
The big question is of course: are we transitioning to a new climate mode (huge low pressure zones and storms above the Arctic, sucking in warm air from the midlatitudes, keeping the Arctic fairly warm, not letting the ice freeze, which keeps the stormy weather alive/low pressure systems in a feedback loop)?

Are you suggesting that the southern wall of the Arctic Polar Cell is breaking down?

I do not know. There are many people here who know much much more about the climate than me. I am just curious and I have long thought that eventually we are going to see a big and more or less permanent low pressure zone above the Arctic which will change the climate of the NH

Stephan

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #260 on: October 10, 2018, 04:39:00 PM »
Decision time. Either the CAB starts refreezing, or it's going into unknown territory.
Another graph in which the pen now writes a line on previously untouched areas (see also Global Sea Ice Extent Graph)

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #261 on: October 10, 2018, 05:24:58 PM »
The big question is of course: are we transitioning to a new climate mode (huge low pressure zones and storms above the Arctic, sucking in warm air from the midlatitudes, keeping the Arctic fairly warm, not letting the ice freeze, which keeps the stormy weather alive/low pressure systems in a feedback loop)?

Are you suggesting that the southern wall of the Arctic Polar Cell is breaking down?

I do not know. There are many people here who know much much more about the climate than me. I am just curious and I have long thought that eventually we are going to see a big and more or less permanent low pressure zone above the Arctic which will change the climate of the NH

The Polar Vortex is a big and more or less permanent (in Winter) low-pressure zone above the Arctic, but it is my understanding that it is mostly stratospheric.  (Not something I know much about, really.)

I do note that there is currently a cyclone that reaches from ground level to at least 250hPa just north of Greenland...

The question in my mind would be, does the air for this cyclone come primarily from north of 60 degrees, or does it come mostly from further south?


Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #262 on: October 10, 2018, 06:16:23 PM »
Pretty obvious that the thickest ice is now finding an easy path out of the CAB through the CAA.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #263 on: October 10, 2018, 06:48:37 PM »
With the ridiculously warm 2m temperatures in the CAB, I was wondering about the temperature of the ice. Here are the surface temps of the ice for the past 4 years. 2018 is much warmer. What does this mean, if anything?

Here is the data source.

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-temperature/

It is very annoying that when you copy the image, the temperature markers on the bar do not copy. You can see them on the site.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 07:03:39 PM by Shared Humanity »

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #264 on: October 10, 2018, 07:12:04 PM »
Anytime you're ahead of a Super El Nino year globally its bad! 

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #265 on: October 10, 2018, 07:21:16 PM »
I don't like the global SIE graph. It obscures what is going on in the Arctic.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #266 on: October 10, 2018, 07:32:12 PM »
Pretty obvious that the thickest ice is now finding an easy path out of the CAB through the CAA.
Hycom ice thickness is similar. 0917-1009 (Quite a lot of 0m coastal ice though)
edit:worked on the gif a bit
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 08:07:09 PM by uniquorn »

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #267 on: October 10, 2018, 07:35:06 PM »
I don't like the global SIE graph. It obscures what is going on in the Arctic.

In some ways I agree with you because of the obvious see-saw between the two, but the Global ice is our best handle on what is happening Globally.

When the second max started failing it was time to start panicking.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #268 on: October 10, 2018, 08:00:34 PM »

It is very annoying that when you copy the image, the temperature markers on the bar do not copy. You can see them on the site.

which is why i recommend screenshots, one can crop them perfectly easy and often they use less
serverspace.

example below, of course one can zooom first to increase size ;)
http://magnamentis.com
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harpy

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #269 on: October 10, 2018, 08:42:30 PM »
How much extent gain has taken place in the arctic thus far exactly?

be cause

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #270 on: October 10, 2018, 08:45:04 PM »
perhaps worth a listen for anyone who can .. BBC radio 4 .. 9pm this evening .. Costing the earth .. Helen Czerski's Arctic expedition .. 6 weeks at the North Pole . also available now on bbc iplayer .. b.c.
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LDorey

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #271 on: October 10, 2018, 09:15:17 PM »
Pretty obvious that the thickest ice is now finding an easy path out of the CAB through the CAA.
Hycom ice thickness is similar. 0917-1009 (Quite a lot of 0m coastal ice though)
edit:worked on the gif a bit

holy Fram export Batman... I saw 150,000km2 in a post above, but looking at this animation that number seems number low... the CAB flat lining makes a lot more sense...

*grumble* I've seen Fram exports graphs before but can't find them, can someone point me in the right direction? thanks.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #272 on: October 10, 2018, 10:02:18 PM »
The hycom animation is a model and might exaggerate Fram export a little. ASCAT is probably a better representation, though you have to assess the ice thickness for yourself.
ascat, CAA and Fram, day250-282.
Worldview, greenland sea, oct9
Close examination of worldview over recent days will show some of the greenland sea ice is refreeze.

Wipneus posts fram export charts on the piomas thread
« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 10:07:34 PM by uniquorn »

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #273 on: October 10, 2018, 11:44:01 PM »
Quote
I've seen Fram exports graphs before but can't find them
Wipneus posts them from time to time in the PIOMAS thread.

be cause

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #274 on: October 11, 2018, 01:26:35 AM »
holy Fram export Batman... I saw 150,000km2 in a post above, but looking at this animation that number seems number low... the CAB flat lining makes a lot more sense...

*grumble* I've seen Fram exports graphs before but can't find them, can someone point me in the right direction? thanks.
[/quote]

Hi LDorey ..
my 150,000 sqKm was the increase in Greenland sea extent since minimum ..extrapolated from the Greenland sea ice graph which can be found by clicking on ASI graphs above in top right corner of every page and going to regional graphs ..

 I would be interested to know how much ice is thought to have left the Arctic via the CAA channels in the same period . b.c.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 01:44:30 AM by be cause »
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litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #275 on: October 11, 2018, 12:09:14 PM »
While 10degC over-average temperatures have covered millions of square kilometers around the North Pole, Greenland Ice Sheet temperatures have been below average. Appears that some of the Ice Sheet cold has slipped into the seas northeast of Greenland. Despite down slope warming, the flow of atmospheric cold remains sub-average & a thin stream of that recent Greenland cold made a beeline to the North Pole. The High Arctic air temperatures now are fluttering up & down. 

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #276 on: October 11, 2018, 02:16:22 PM »
Speaking of Freezing Degree Days:


NeilT

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #277 on: October 11, 2018, 08:04:36 PM »
How much extent gain has taken place in the arctic thus far exactly?

Most of it has been outside 80N.  The whole Atlantic front and the Laptev bite continuing to grow is driving that chart.

It will drop eventually, the Atlantic side finally seems to be heading back south again.  The most important thing about that graph is not how much ice growth there has been but how weak the ice will be come the 2019 melting season.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #278 on: October 12, 2018, 12:59:08 AM »
I thought refreeze in the Beaufort was going to take hold, but it doesn't look so convincing over the last two days.
Worldview, Beaufort oct10-11

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #279 on: October 12, 2018, 01:41:15 AM »
I thought refreeze in the Beaufort was going to take hold, but it doesn't look so convincing over the last two days.
Worldview, Beaufort oct10-11
On the plus side, we finally have a reincarnation of "Big Block" to track into 2019...!

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #280 on: October 12, 2018, 03:31:29 AM »
Greenland Ice Sheet temperatures have been below average. Appears that some of the Ice Sheet cold has slipped into the seas northeast of Greenland...the flow of atmospheric cold remains sub-average & a thin stream of that recent Greenland cold made a beeline to the North Pole. The High Arctic air temperatures now are fluttering up & down.
For the last 20+ days High Arctic average temperatures have been 9-10+ degC over average. Now with that thin beeline cold funneling directly to the North Pole, High Arctic temperatures have dropped to 8degC over average.

Lurk

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #281 on: October 12, 2018, 03:48:10 AM »
Re-post reminder of what happened to A-Team two months ago

Oh, no one there at the Guardian knows the difference between an iceberg and a floe. A sub-editor just picked some vaguely related click-bait off a Getty stock photo collection. Be grateful there wasn't a scantily clad Inuit carving up narwhale blubber. It is the same with newspaper headlines. Total disconnect with the reporter. Just about every article, every newspaper.

I am more concerned about plagiarism of our site by scientists. Naturally, people trolling earlier about sunspots (#2 on the Skeptical Science nonsense thermometer) is a total turn-off. However this event was noticed here 3 full weeks prior to the Guardian article and has undergone huge technical development on multiple high-visitation forums.

The hit counts here indicate multi-100,000 views of postings and graphics on the article's subject. Please don't tell me that those don't include a whole lot of mainstream Arctic researchers. They come here because it's a huge time saver over daily trawling of satellite resources. Two clicks in the left column, set an alert as many have done, and you can skip over the sunspots and speculation right to coverage of the event.

Plagiarism is failure to cite or credit. Just because it is open source doesn't mean there's no obligation to link. What they are doing is reading the blog, taking the better ideas, and then re-doing the graphics and research text, often ineptly. That's not original research, it's theft. They don't want to credit the site because of loonies here, because it's just the internet, because people mostly post anonymously, because not everyone here is a card-carrying academic scientist.

However I am, the 6,700 cites to my peer-reviewed papers are more than all the scientists quoted in the Guardian article put together. This is plagiarism as it is understood in the scientific world and I am getting real fed up with it.


This is the last post made by A-Team to the ASI Forum
ref https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=471
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #282 on: October 12, 2018, 05:58:09 AM »
so far we are all posting in the wrong thread
big time oops

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #283 on: October 12, 2018, 07:05:02 AM »
October 7-11.

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #284 on: October 12, 2018, 09:16:33 AM »
Finally, actual freezing in the Laptev sector.

meddoc

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #285 on: October 12, 2018, 09:58:41 AM »
This Season we are gonna be lucky if the Bering gets any Ice on the Arctic Ocean Side...
That, coupled with El Nino is terrible, horrible, very, very bad, no good for 2019 Melt Season.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #286 on: October 12, 2018, 10:37:00 AM »
Finally, actual freezing in the Laptev sector.
But on the other hand look at the sea ice concentration in the Arctic north of 85. I attach Univ Bremen false colour images Oct 11 and Oct 7.
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Alexander555

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #287 on: October 12, 2018, 11:07:13 AM »
This Season we are gonna be lucky if the Bering gets any Ice on the Arctic Ocean Side...
That, coupled with El Nino is terrible, horrible, very, very bad, no good for 2019 Melt Season.

In 2012 there was plenty of ice in the bering, sounds like a risky prediction to me. Probably it want be thick, but what kind of coldspell would it take to cover the bering in a wide layer of ice ? Maybe a good idea to watch the polar vortex. Probably it want take that much time to put a thin layer on top of the ocean. If you look at that area just north of Greenland, that had some open water pretty late in winter. And it was still covered with ice most of the summer. It only took a short periode of time to refreeze. Of course, that's a very cold area, but you don't need that much time to get some big differences.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #288 on: October 12, 2018, 02:32:50 PM »
The problem on the Bering side is the unprecedented heat flux into the Arctic. Warm, moderatly salty Pacific water has flowed into the Arctic then descended to the 30m to 100m level, below the fresh water layer caused by Siberian river influx.

There's a rapidly growing amount of heat in the Pacific water layer above the Atlantic water layer which is shoaling as freshwater is flowing out of the Arctic through the CAA and the Fram strait.

The present weather and ocean current patterns are increasing the heat content of the Arctic ocean. Sooner or later depending on late spring and summer weather patterns the increasing heat will lead to a record below 2012 and the heat will continue to retard sea ice recovery in the dark months.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #289 on: October 12, 2018, 03:01:21 PM »
October 7-11.

Clear evidence of freezing on the edges near the Laptev.

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #290 on: October 12, 2018, 06:54:14 PM »
Appears that some of the Ice Sheet cold has slipped into the seas northeast of Greenland. Despite down slope warming, the flow of atmospheric cold remains sub-average.....
After some of the cold moved off the Greenland Ice Sheet to the northeast, a warm front replaced it on the eastern half of the Ice Sheet.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx_frames/gfs/ds/gfs_arc-lea_t2anom_3-day.png

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #291 on: October 12, 2018, 07:45:38 PM »
The problem on the Bering side is the unprecedented heat flux into the Arctic. Warm, moderatly salty Pacific water has flowed into the Arctic then descended to the 30m to 100m level, below the fresh water layer caused by Siberian river ...
This has the sense about it as being a change in system-state - that increased base enthalpy present  the Bering and Chukchi may have tipped them over into a new climate regime. 

The next few months may be definitive. If the Bering in particular continues at the low levels of area over winter, the heat budget it has will be altered radically by way of increased capture of spring insolation.  This may be a precursor to tip over.
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Stephan

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #292 on: October 12, 2018, 07:47:44 PM »
If this becomes true, it should be named "Abrupt Climate Change" for Bering and Chukchi Sea.

jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #293 on: October 12, 2018, 08:06:52 PM »
If this becomes true, it should be named "Abrupt Climate Change" for Bering and Chukchi Sea.
Very much so. Even now, even with shorter days, because of the lack of ice cover both of those seas are still picking up isolation and downwelling longwave radiation.

That radiation is not enough to stop the refreeze, but is a very substantial increase to the seas annual heat capture.

Meanwhile, outgoing heat out of the atmosphere is limited by physics and *can't* increase except in smaller increments determined by temperatures in the upper atmosphere.  As a metaphor, we are increasing the flow of water into a tub without changing the size of the drain.

Further,  that feedback is self reinforcing (to a limit);  increases in energy capture will tend to increase the rate at which it is captured, year over year.  I have no timeframe to suggest, but this is a disturbing trend.
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Davidsf

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #294 on: October 12, 2018, 09:24:18 PM »
jdallen, very interesting. I had assumed in late October that solar radiation was no longer a significant factor. Thank you.

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #295 on: October 12, 2018, 10:01:01 PM »
The problem on the Bering side is the unprecedented heat flux into the Arctic. Warm, moderatly salty Pacific water has flowed into the Arctic then descended to the 30m to 100m level, below the fresh water layer caused by Siberian river ...
This has the sense about it as being a change in system-state - that increased base enthalpy present  the Bering and Chukchi may have tipped them over into a new climate regime. 

The next few months may be definitive. If the Bering in particular continues at the low levels of area over winter, the heat budget it has will be altered radically by way of increased capture of spring insolation.  This may be a precursor to tip over.

The attached graphs show the extent to which the Bering and Chukchi are changing from icy seas to open water seas. The Bering story is about winter, the Chukchi story is about summer.
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harpy

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #296 on: October 12, 2018, 10:15:33 PM »
If this becomes true, it should be named "Abrupt Climate Change" for Bering and Chukchi Sea.
Very much so. Even now, even with shorter days, because of the lack of ice cover both of those seas are still picking up isolation and downwelling longwave radiation.

That radiation is not enough to stop the refreeze, but is a very substantial increase to the seas annual heat capture.

Meanwhile, outgoing heat out of the atmosphere is limited by physics and *can't* increase except in smaller increments determined by temperatures in the upper atmosphere.  As a metaphor, we are increasing the flow of water into a tub without changing the size of the drain.


How much radiation is absorbed in October versus the summer months?

You indicate that this amount of absorbed radiation is "very substantial".  Can you please back up your claim with some evidence?

Thank you.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #297 on: October 12, 2018, 10:32:03 PM »
100 wm2ish. It is not insignificant.
big time oops

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #298 on: October 12, 2018, 10:39:11 PM »
Average Arctic sea ice VOLUME for October 1, for the period 1980-89, was ~15,200 cubic kilometers. Present October 1, 2018 sea ice VOLUME is ~ 5100 cubic kilometers, ~ 10100 cubic kilometers LESS than the 1980-89 average for October 1. Energy needed to melt 10100 cubic kilometers of ice is ~ 31 times the annual U.S. consumption of energy.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #299 on: October 13, 2018, 03:39:02 AM »
I think that the effect warm air advection into the Arctic increasing clouds and downwelling radiation is a major uncertainty in modelling future Arctic conditions.

https://www.adv-sci-res.net/14/139/2017/asr-14-139-2017.html

Received: 11 Jan 2017 – Revised: 27 Apr 2017 – Accepted: 28 Apr 2017 – Published: 01 Jun 2017

Abstract. Trends and variability of the Arctic sea ice extent depend on various physical processes, including those related to changes in radiative fluxes, which are associated with cloudiness and water vapour and, in turn, with the atmospheric moisture transport over the Arctic. Aim of this work was: (i) to extract seasonal spatial patterns of the co-variability between the sea ice concentration (SIC) and the surface downwelling longwave radiation (SDL) in the Arctic Ocean during the 1982–2009 period; and (ii) to estimate the correlation coefficients between these patterns and the indices associated to some climate oscillation modes (AO, NAO, PNA, PDO and AMO). Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) was the main technique used in this study. Among our results, we highlight two areas of maximum co-variability SIC/SDL centered over the Barents Sea in winter and over the Chukchi Sea in summer. In addition, some statistically significant correlations (at 95%) between the spatial patterns of co-variability and climate oscillation indices were assessed, e.g. with PDO and AMO in November–January, with NAO and AMO in May–July, and with PNA in August–October.


Several articles is have scanned indicate that downwelling radiation has the largest impact in the spring months. September sea ice extent isn't very sensitive to winter longwave radiation differences. Of course, that might change as winter warms and ice thins.
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1915118K
Abstract
The Arctic region has warmed rapidly over the last decades, and this warming is projected to increase. The uncertainty in these projections, i.e. intermodel spread, is however very large and a clear understanding of the sources behind the spread is so far still lacking. Here we use 31 state-of-the-art global climate models to show that variability of May downwelling radiation (DLR) in the models' control climate, primarily located at the land surrounding the Arctic ocean, explains 2/3 of the intermodel spread in projected Arctic warming under the RPC85 scenario. This variability is related to the combined radiative effect of the cloud radiative forcing (CRF) and the albedo response due to snowfall, which varies strongly between the models in these regions. This mechanism dampens or enhances yearly variability of DLR in the control climate but also dampens or enhances the climate response of DLR, sea ice cover and near surface temperature.


At this point I think it's too soon to know if we are reaching a tipping point on the Alaskan side of the Arctic, but we have seen some stunning changes the past 3 years.