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El Cid

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #300 on: October 13, 2018, 10:48:20 AM »
I think that the effect warm air advection into the Arctic increasing clouds and downwelling radiation is a major uncertainty in modelling future Arctic conditions.


As far as I understand, cloud effects are a major source of uncertainity in all climate modelling. I read a good paper on this but I cant find it right now.

Keeping the above in mind, the oversimplified way I understand the Arctic is this: by having more open water, there is more evaporation, more cloudiness in the Arctic, which keeps it warmer in the winter (than before) and cooler in the summer. Also, storms are stronger and more "energized" due to this, and this leads to the Arctic periodically sucking in warmth from midlatitudes, and spinning out cold, snowy air. This leads to a more volatile Arctic and midlatitude climate, both more snowy but also on average warmer.

Meanwhile, according to ECMWF the next 3-5 days are going to be still very warm in the CAB as warem air is arriving from Scandinavia...

John_The_Elder

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #301 on: October 13, 2018, 08:32:17 PM »
Eyeballing would be easiest, using the color legend with the graph or advanced calculus with a calculator or abacus :) JTE
John

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #302 on: October 13, 2018, 08:41:34 PM »
I find it interesting that the 365-day mean air temperature is barely cold enough to freeze sea ice.  How warm is the water under that ice?

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #303 on: October 13, 2018, 08:49:56 PM »
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic.  WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
« Last Edit: October 13, 2018, 08:57:46 PM by Dharma Rupa »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #304 on: October 14, 2018, 01:01:23 AM »
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic.  WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
It is because shifting AMOC / NPAC pattern is putting Canada in the "snow zone" and it is now snowing and sticking for much longer each year versus only a few years ago (and even against 1971-2000 climo).

Here is a GIF of Arctic SST shifts from 2012 to 2018. Look at the displacement! The NPAC has gone nuclear while the ATL is cooling rather consistently. I see no reason why the changes of the past six years won't continue or accelerate through 2024 which means that we will probably see continued limited cooling in Okhotsk and Beaufort, significiant ongoing cooling in Hudson and Baffin Bays and the Labrador Seas, and worsening warmth in the northern Okhotsk, Bering, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev, and Barentz.

The shift the past six years is the difference in 20C worth of monthly temps in some months for many regions. I worry that another six years could easily yield "increasing patches of perennial snowcover" in growing splotches of the Canadian Shield with worsening ensuing negative impacts for sea ice (oh, and humans!).


GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #305 on: October 14, 2018, 02:17:53 AM »
The shift the past six years is the difference in 20C worth of monthly temps in some months for many regions.

Can you give some examples? This strikes me as quite hyperbolic.
big time oops

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #306 on: October 14, 2018, 02:41:26 AM »
The shift the past six years is the difference in 20C worth of monthly temps in some months for many regions.

Can you give some examples? This strikes me as quite hyperbolic.
Sorry it is only 10C worth of monthly temp differential, my b! (At least it was in September -- some months it can be greater).

PS just went back -- looks like Jan 2018 was over 20C warmer than Jan 2012 in spots of the Bering.



jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #307 on: October 14, 2018, 04:21:14 AM »
100 wm2ish. It is not insignificant.
Thank you for saving me some time.

Remember, to be significant, the energy being added does not need to be enough to prevent a refreeze.  The problem is cumulative, rather than acute.  We are steadily increasing the net enthalpy of the Arctic and surrounding oceans.  It is a dire problem.  It will take centuries to dump the heat we're accumulating, if we ever can.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #308 on: October 14, 2018, 04:24:37 AM »
There has been an anomalous vortex around Greenland for the past 180 days. It's causing the Arctic ocean to lose fresh water to the Labrador sea.

jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #309 on: October 14, 2018, 04:25:46 AM »
I think that the effect warm air advection into the Arctic increasing clouds and downwelling radiation is a major uncertainty in modelling future Arctic conditions.
<snippage>
At this point I think it's too soon to know if we are reaching a tipping point on the Alaskan side of the Arctic, but we have seen some stunning changes the past 3 years.
It is without question a serious uncertainty.  It's part of why we really can't use a single year, or even two or three consecutive years to skillfully predict the rate at which the ice is going to decline.  We can only elucidate *direction* which is down.

I think we are in the midst of the transition to a new regime.  It hasn't tipped, but the moment is in the wrong direction for us to halt it.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #310 on: October 14, 2018, 04:28:25 AM »
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic. WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
I think what you are seeing is evidence of the breakdown of the polar cell, and the export of cold air it previously sequestered breaking out into lower latitudes, while being replaced by much warmer and moister inflows.
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sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #311 on: October 14, 2018, 05:20:16 AM »
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic. WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
I think what you are seeing is evidence of the breakdown of the polar cell, and the export of cold air it previously sequestered breaking out into lower latitudes, while being replaced by much warmer and moister inflows.

That describes part of the process.  here's an interesting article with some more detail.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/22/one-of-the-most-bizarre-ideas-about-climate-change-just-got-more-support/

This is the kind of thing Paul Beckwith has no problem pronouncing without reference to data on his video blogs (which I think are great, because they are so unconstrained). In his story, once the situation becomes a warm arctic surrounded by cold continents, the circulations reverse.  The Beaufort gyre and transpolar drift operate in reverse, sucking in the Gulf Stream and yielding the sort of Arctic where crocodiles and cycads can thrive.

It's helpful to remember that the signal of a WACC pattern is so far showing up in the anomalies, because of course it does.  The freakin polar cell is falling apart.  What else could it seem like?
I am not a scientist

jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #312 on: October 14, 2018, 05:56:24 AM »
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic. WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
I think what you are seeing is evidence of the breakdown of the polar cell, and the export of cold air it previously sequestered breaking out into lower latitudes, while being replaced by much warmer and moister inflows.

That describes part of the process.  here's an interesting article with some more detail.

<snippage>
The thing is, it's not really colder continents - its cold exported from the Arctic - and the increased snowfall is actually an artifact of *more* rather than less heat.  You can't have the increased snowfall without increased water vapor, and you can't have increased water vapor without increased heat. Pure physical chemistry, nothing exotic here.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #313 on: October 14, 2018, 07:49:40 AM »
October 9-13.

El Cid

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #314 on: October 14, 2018, 08:52:15 AM »
Warm Arctic, Cold Continents is a great catchphrase but it is not true. Athough at first (2006-2011) it seemed that a warming Arctic does not lead to warmer continents it has changed since.

During 2006-11 average winter arctic temps were 1,8 C above 1980-2000 averages, Europe was somewhat warmer, NA was 0,5 C colder, and Siberia was about 1 C colder. This period gave rise to the phrase WACC

During 2012-2018 however, when Arctic warming was much stronger: 3,1 C warmer than average, both Europe and NA was obviously warmer than the averages (chart 1)

Within that period (though I know it is to short, but changes are happening so fast) the last 3 years (2016-2018, chart 2) when winter arctic anomalies reached +4,2 C, the continents were much warmer, more than 1 C.

So I do not buy the WACCy theory, because I see the exact opposites: the warmer the arctic, the warmer the continents

El Cid

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #315 on: October 14, 2018, 08:59:24 AM »
...And if we take an even bigger step back, and take a look at 2007-2018 vs the averages of the 20th century, then the picture is even more clear. The "warmth" is spreading from the north towards the south

meddoc

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #316 on: October 14, 2018, 09:08:11 AM »
...And if we take an even bigger step back, and take a look at 2007-2018 vs the averages of the 20th century, then the picture is even more clear. The "warmth" is spreading from the north towards the south

This Image is reminiscent of what IPCC Worst Case Projections looked like.
And for 2050.

And it's here. Now.

SimonF92

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #317 on: October 14, 2018, 11:55:03 AM »
Looks like extent gains are finally beginning to get going in the CAB

Oct 13th - Oct 11th

echoughton

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #318 on: October 14, 2018, 12:16:39 PM »
I find it interesting that the 365-day mean air temperature is barely cold enough to freeze sea ice.  How warm is the water under that ice?

Why do I always see that question? I wonder if there are any monitoring devices up there? Whatever happened to that camera on Buoy 14? Last I clicked on it I saw a shot from 2 years ago! Why doesn't Neven send a team of crack Sea Ice Forum members up inside 80N and answer some of these questions for us? He's sitting there warm in his mansion...LORD knows where....collecting all the loot generated by this world-class forum, and does nothing to answer these nagging quesions: What is the temperature of the water 753 fathoms under that ice-flow off Ellsemere? How many healthy Polar bears are frolicking in Franz Josephland?
Just send Juan and Jim and Fishoutofwater (PLEASE!) and Wip and Geronimo and set them up with a few tents and a stack of firewood up on some ice-flow circling the CAB, and they can do the rest. Let's get some answers!

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #319 on: October 14, 2018, 12:26:52 PM »
I find it interesting that the 365-day mean air temperature is barely cold enough to freeze sea ice.  How warm is the water under that ice?

Why do I always see that question? I wonder if there are any monitoring devices up there? Whatever happened to that camera on Buoy 14? Last I clicked on it I saw a shot from 2 years ago! Why doesn't Neven send a team of crack Sea Ice Forum members up inside 80N and answer some of these questions for us? He's sitting there warm in his mansion...LORD knows where....collecting all the loot generated by this world-class forum, and does nothing to answer these nagging quesions: What is the temperature of the water 753 fathoms under that ice-flow off Ellsemere? How many healthy Polar bears are frolicking in Franz Josephland?
Just send Juan and Jim and Fishoutofwater (PLEASE!) and Wip and Geronimo and set them up with a few tents and a stack of firewood up on some ice-flow circling the CAB, and they can do the rest. Let's get some answers!
And after the Arctic is sorted out (shouldn't take long), a quick trip to the Antarctic to show the British Antarctic Survey at the University of Cambridge how it should be done.
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johnm33

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #320 on: October 14, 2018, 12:29:24 PM »
In the ESS and north Laptev the water [beneath the ice] is cold enough to freeze
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Alexander555

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #321 on: October 14, 2018, 01:16:06 PM »
...And if we take an even bigger step back, and take a look at 2007-2018 vs the averages of the 20th century, then the picture is even more clear. The "warmth" is spreading from the north towards the south

Just theoretically ofcourse, but normaly it spreads from the equator to the poles.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #322 on: October 14, 2018, 01:25:04 PM »
...And if we take an even bigger step back, and take a look at 2007-2018 vs the averages of the 20th century, then the picture is even more clear. The "warmth" is spreading from the north towards the south

Just theoretically ofcourse, but normaly it spreads from the equator to the poles.
Probably should have said 'the increase in warmth'

Quite clear above parts of the cab today. Worldview viirs brightness temperature, band15day gives some indication of surface temperature and the state of the ice. Some of the warmer areas will be cloud.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #323 on: October 14, 2018, 02:49:02 PM »
The 365-day anomaly is rather interesting too in that there seems to be a band somewhat colder than historical just below the very warm Arctic. WACCy weather.  (Given the cold spots in the North Atlantic and in the South Pacific, is there any chance this is at least in part a latitude thing?)
I think what you are seeing is evidence of the breakdown of the polar cell, and the export of cold air it previously sequestered breaking out into lower latitudes, while being replaced by much warmer and moister inflows.

That was my interpretation.  Just not ready to declare it as a fact.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #324 on: October 14, 2018, 02:51:06 PM »
So I do not buy the WACCy theory, because I see the exact opposites: the warmer the arctic, the warmer the continents

The continents are only cold in comparison, not colder.  They are not warming as fast as the Arctic Ocean.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #325 on: October 14, 2018, 03:05:09 PM »
That describes part of the process.  here's an interesting article with some more detail.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/22/one-of-the-most-bizarre-ideas-about-climate-change-just-got-more-support/

I notice that the proposed notion of WACCy is that the Arctic is warming faster than the continents, and the skeptics are saying that the continents are not getting colder.  There seems to be a disconnect there.

JayW

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #326 on: October 14, 2018, 04:26:13 PM »
The RAMMB/CIRA slider now has some VIIRS imagery from the Suomi and JPSS-1 satellites. It's not resolution isn't on offer with worldview, but it does allows for sub-daily imagery, as it uploads a new image roughly every 51 minutes.  It should prrpe fun in boreal summer, but for now, it's useful for tracking storms.  In clear conditions, the ice surface can also be picked up.

I chose a water vapor band.
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=1&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=15&x=16432&y=15824
« Last Edit: October 14, 2018, 04:32:16 PM by JayW »
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #327 on: October 14, 2018, 04:31:40 PM »
Aggregating DJF 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 when the nuances of each year have been very different, particular, & a step by step evolution from each previous year, is kind of disingenuous.

In any case, 17-18 was generally cold in DJF with specific areas of warmth still present in areas like the Southwest US.

Another nuance is that contrary to El Cid's assertion, in 17-18, the highest latitude land areas in the Arctic *were* much warmer than in 16-17 (and vs. normal), and this was accompanied by consistent severe cold in Hudson Bay, much of Canada, and large parts of Asia (you can see that cold is now extending in both directions across the Atlantic due to the NATL cool pool + Greenland vortex while the Arctic PV was breaking off into both NW Siberia and Hudson Bay).

We are going to see this trend continue into 2018-2019. While parts of the Arctic are going into the freezer both literally and relatively vs. normal this year (Canada, bit of Siberia, Kamchatka, Mongolia, Himalayas), parts are now scorching well beyond any previous record. The Chukchi, Bering, Laptev, and Barentz  actually ALL share this feature re: warmth, with records continuously set all over the place.

The FRAM export the past several days has resulted in a major Greenland Sea ice discrepancy with most recent years, with 2018 now being in the lead. The way this occurred seemed to be unprecedented. We have lost a huge chunk of volume through both the CAA & Greenland Sea, but the question is, what happens next? How much is quickly melted by the Gulf Stream's northernmost tendrils (probably a lot)? And does any actually make it past the southern tip of Greenland?

If the last 12 months are any indicator, the Baffin / Labrador front is going to be extremely impressive this winter, and the Hudson refreeze should be mostly complete by 11/15. The cold in Baffin and Labrador is already very impressive vs. normal and ice formation is racing down from the MYI on Nares (with FYI also now forming on shorelines).

Will the Bering Strait freeze at all this year? We are two months and one week from solar minimum and the entire area is blazingly hot. Worse than 2016 or 2017. Evidently the bottom water has now given out as well. With the amount of Pacific water that has intruded into Chukchi and the western Beaufort, those spots will be harder-pressed to freeze vs. last winter as well.

I think one of the major implications of the situation in Bering is what is happening in HB / Baffin / Labrador. The shift since 2012 is remarkable and worsening. And if Wrangel Island is basking in occasional 50s into January and February, evidently cold becomes severely and significantly displaced to its SE into the US and Canada.

How much of the deficit of Bering / Chukchi will Okhotsk, Baffin, and Labrador make up in 2018-19? I don't think it will be enough to offset a record high minimum (combined with Laptev / everything else high latitude except Beaufort & CAA), but I think we will be surprised by how far the front advances this year, especially off the East Coast of Canada. With this fall's anomalies presenting as they have, I would not be shocked to see record #s blown away for Labrador Sea, and maybe even the Greenland Sea if it advances far enough. With so much heat in the Bering (and at depth), I think we could see a similar situation in the Sea of Japan as well.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #328 on: October 14, 2018, 04:42:57 PM »
That describes part of the process.  here's an interesting article with some more detail.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/22/one-of-the-most-bizarre-ideas-about-climate-change-just-got-more-support/

I notice that the proposed notion of WACCy is that the Arctic is warming faster than the continents, and the skeptics are saying that the continents are not getting colder.  There seems to be a disconnect there.
Well, do you look at the whole year or just a season?
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #329 on: October 14, 2018, 04:51:28 PM »
That describes part of the process.  here's an interesting article with some more detail.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/09/22/one-of-the-most-bizarre-ideas-about-climate-change-just-got-more-support/

I notice that the proposed notion of WACCy is that the Arctic is warming faster than the continents, and the skeptics are saying that the continents are not getting colder.  There seems to be a disconnect there.
Well, do you look at the whole year or just a season?

I'd look at both since I am expecting both WACCy and equable.  I'd look at what is happening all year near 60 degrees North to see if the Polar Cell is breaking down creating WACC, and I'd look at what is happening in Winter to see what is going on with water vapor and the potential for an equable climate.

What happens in Summer only becomes interesting when the Ice Cap approaches 0.


bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #330 on: October 14, 2018, 04:57:42 PM »
Here is 9/1-30 -> 10/1-11. It is nice because you can see how and why the pattern is evolving as it is over Canada (IMO).

The continental albedo feedback is now like a steamroller over Canada, making a beeline for the core of the warmth over the southeast part of the continent. The end for summer approaches rapidly across North America, but not the Bering or Chukchi! LOL


oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #331 on: October 14, 2018, 07:34:49 PM »
Quote
If the last 12 months are any indicator, the Baffin / Labrador front is going to be extremely impressive this winter, and the Hudson refreeze should be mostly complete by 11/15. The cold in Baffin and Labrador is already very impressive vs. normal and ice formation is racing down from the MYI on Nares (with FYI also now forming on shorelines). 

Will the Bering Strait freeze at all this year? We are two months and one week from solar minimum and the entire area is blazingly hot. Worse than 2016 or 2017.
Hudson Bay normally completes freezing in mid-December. I'd be extremely surprised if your prediction of mid-November came true. Will you revisit it when the time comes?

As to Bering Strait, I am certain it will freeze at some point this winter. Max is still 4-5 months away.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #332 on: October 14, 2018, 08:35:01 PM »
Quote
If the last 12 months are any indicator, the Baffin / Labrador front is going to be extremely impressive this winter, and the Hudson refreeze should be mostly complete by 11/15. The cold in Baffin and Labrador is already very impressive vs. normal and ice formation is racing down from the MYI on Nares (with FYI also now forming on shorelines).

Will the Bering Strait freeze at all this year? We are two months and one week from solar minimum and the entire area is blazingly hot. Worse than 2016 or 2017.
Hudson Bay normally completes freezing in mid-December. I'd be extremely surprised if your prediction of mid-November came true. Will you revisit it when the time comes?

As to Bering Strait, I am certain it will freeze at some point this winter. Max is still 4-5 months away.
Yes! I shall re: Hudson Bay.

SSTs are running 3-4C below average, most of the Bay is already 32-34F. The extra seasonal snowcover nearby insulated the sea ice late into the summer and the reformation of substantial snowpack so early has helped ensure incoming air masses are also fresh and frigid (esp vs. normal). As has the abundance of ice in the CAA and the Beaufort adjacent to Nunavut. 

Foxe Basin is in the process of freezing from north to south as we speak. Also attached the weather forecast for Hall Beach on its western shore. It is already FRIGID in Nunavut and if long range modeling is correct it will be below 0 consistently by 10/20.

By 10/25, Foxe Basin should be entirely covered, by 11/15, Hudson should be mostly complete (I will say 75-85% at that point). We can revisit this post 11/16 and see if I am wrong.



I anticipate the very early refreeze of Hudson Bay will lead to worsened displacement of +500MB anomalies into the Bering. By 11/15-11/20 the primary vortex that has been sitting over the CAA will migrate into HB and we will see severe anomalous cold spread across all of North America east of the Rockies, while the Bering is still basking in bouts of 50F weather and enduring significant wave action from major LPs inbound from the NPAC.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2018, 08:40:16 PM by bbr2314 »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #333 on: October 14, 2018, 09:20:13 PM »
As to Bering Strait, I am certain it will freeze at some point this winter. Max is still 4-5 months away.

I wouldn't be certain. The strait is several degrees C warmer than it was last year, and freezing south of the strait was very limited was last year. It is also saltier (i think). And the chukchi sea is way warmer and saltier too.

I predict it does freeze but that it is pretty much the southern limit. Obviously there will be some coastal freezing, however I think overall the bering sea will sea close to ZERO ice this winter/spring.
big time oops

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #334 on: October 14, 2018, 09:30:06 PM »
A shorter forecast. ESRL ice and snow thickness for oct13-20
https://floe.keytwist.net/esrl-daily-forecasts/2018-10-13

wipneus regional chart for the Bering Sea.

Bering did look like it was fighting a losing battle this year.
amsr2-uhh, jan-may, every 4 3 days
« Last Edit: October 14, 2018, 10:27:58 PM by uniquorn »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #335 on: October 14, 2018, 11:02:28 PM »
Will you revisit it when the time comes?

Of course not.

Red

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #336 on: October 14, 2018, 11:13:52 PM »
Some may find this article interesting.
 http://www.highnorthnews.com/unprecedented-lack-of-refreeze-across-arctic-as-ice-continues-to-melt/

“In fact now ice extent in the Central Arctic Basin is second lowest for the day. Its slightly below the overall record year 2012. Only in the year 2007 there was less ice in the Central Arctic on this day of the year,” says Lars Kaleschke from the Center of Marine and Atmospheric Research (ZMAW) at the University of Hamburg. About 500,000 square kilometers of ice coverage are missing – about the size of Sweden – compared to the previous five years.

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #337 on: October 14, 2018, 11:53:46 PM »
As to Bering Strait, I am certain it will freeze at some point this winter. Max is still 4-5 months away.
I know you're talking about specific parts of the Arctic. In general tho, the last 3-4 years of Arctic sea ice extent maximums have been 14million square kilometers or less. During the 1980s, arctic sea ice extents have been 14 million square kilometers.... on January first!! It's "almost" like the Arctic is losing 2+ months of winter freeze. 
« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 12:20:00 AM by litesong »

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #338 on: October 15, 2018, 02:24:00 AM »
OK, it's been at least three days.  Is there a graph for 85 degrees N similar to DMI 80 N?

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #339 on: October 15, 2018, 02:32:52 AM »
WACC is a pattern of relative warmth and cold in a warming climate. It doesn't mean that the continents are getting colder. WACC happens when the polar vortex is weak and cold air pours out over the continents in the cold months. WACC does not apply to summer.

The major stratospheric warming last February brought on a powerful WACC pattern. Snow hung on very late into spring in New England and really piled up in eastern Canada. Remember the "beast from the east" in Europe. hat was classic WACC related to the break down of the polar vortex.

And, yes, I have piles of firewood that I salvaged from downed trees in my neighborhood. Too many hurricanes. I'm thankful to all the scientists and technicians who go to the Arctic so that I can look at the data while sitting by a warm fire at home.

El Cid

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #340 on: October 15, 2018, 08:08:38 AM »
WACC is a pattern of relative warmth and cold in a warming climate. It doesn't mean that the continents are getting colder. WACC happens when the polar vortex is weak and cold air pours out over the continents in the cold months.

Of course you are right about this FoW- you are much more knowledgable about this than me. Very often, however, some people and the media especially equate (and overhype) this process with brutally cold winters to come and whenever there is a cold winter month, they crow about this. We (in Europe) used to have very cold winters and attacks from Siberia long before the Arctic started to warm, January 85 and 87 come to mind. So even without cold outbreaks due to a weakened polar vortex, we used to have serious cold outbreaks. I looked at the volatility of winter temperatures and I found no significant change but we can see that winters are becoming wamrer in general.

meddoc

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #341 on: October 15, 2018, 09:24:51 AM »
Where's the Cooling that's been predicted by some Forumers...
Rather the Opposite is gaining Momentum.

Would be nice to get Info on in situ Situation with Methane.
Bubbling in the Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Kara?

sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #342 on: October 15, 2018, 10:55:07 AM »


getting into the WACC debate a little bit sent me looking for academic lectures on YouTube.  turned on to the work of Dr Judah Cohen.  a little tough to follow but he is an active writer on this blog https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

and a brief summary of his Siberian snow cover in October indicator http://www.judahcohen.org

to me, what's really interesting about this type of structural debate right now is that there are times when the arctic basin 2M temps actually are warmer than Greenland and Siberian temps... not just a signal in the anomalies. 
I am not a scientist

echoughton

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #343 on: October 15, 2018, 01:34:08 PM »
As to Bering Strait, I am certain it will freeze at some point this winter. Max is still 4-5 months away.

I wouldn't be certain. The strait is several degrees C warmer than it was last year, and freezing south of the strait was very limited was last year. It is also saltier (i think). And the chukchi sea is way warmer and saltier too.

I predict it does freeze but that it is pretty much the southern limit. Obviously there will be some coastal freezing, however I think overall the bering sea will sea close to ZERO ice this winter/spring.

But what does that mean for one of my top 15 favorite Alaska shows: Bering Sea Gold? They better be able to get out on the ice and mine, otherwise ratings will plummet!

colchonero

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #344 on: October 15, 2018, 01:54:11 PM »
I don't really get cci gfs 2m anomalies. It doesn't seem to match EC and GFS models on meteociel at all. Yeah sure there are some positive Temp 850hPa anomalies on meteociel as well, but nothing dramatic, and there are even some negative fields on the map. While on the other hand when I go to cci GFS it shows half of Arctic "burning in red", especially the Russian side. Now my question is, is that because there is so much open water compared to average there. So the 2m temps stay much higher than they should because there is no ice? Like in May or June when Temp850hPa explode for days but 2m temperature stays around 0C (32F), because of the ice over that area, just the opposite right now? That came to my mind cause the biggest difference between cci temp 2m and meteociel EC, GFS, temp850hPa is on the Russian side (Laptev and ESS) even though we have "pretty stable vortex" (compared to last 5 years), and cold air hanging there. I mean cci has Russian coast (the land) close to the average around day 7 (somewhere below, somewhere above), and it seems to follow meteociel GFS very well, but the seas are "burning".

Comparison, same date, same model (GFS 6z)




I mean look at the Bering Strait 850hPa anomalies, they are the highest on meteociel, but cci 2m seems to follow that very well, perhaps because there shouldn't be ice there anyway, compared to the average?
« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 02:01:23 PM by colchonero »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #345 on: October 15, 2018, 02:41:43 PM »
An interesting discussion on Ron Kwok's new paper is developing over at "Snow White's" place, including an SAR animation of the sea ice north of Greenland this year amongst other things:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/10/an-unusual-sea-ice-situation-north-of-greenland/

My own brief thoughts?

Quote
The “oldest, thickest sea ice in the Arctic” seems to be vanishing before our very eyes.

Not to mention:

Quote
Ron must be a big fan of “Snow White”!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

harpy

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #346 on: October 15, 2018, 03:21:03 PM »
I don't really get cci gfs 2m anomalies. It doesn't seem to match EC and GFS models on meteociel at all. Yeah sure there are some positive Temp 850hPa anomalies on meteociel as well, but nothing dramatic, and there are even some negative fields on the map. While on the other hand when I go to cci GFS it shows half of Arctic "burning in red", especially the Russian side. Now my question is, is that because there is so much open water compared to average there. So the 2m temps stay much higher than they should because there is no ice? Like in May or June when Temp850hPa explode for days but 2m temperature stays around 0C (32F), because of the ice over that area, just the opposite right now? That came to my mind cause the biggest difference between cci temp 2m and meteociel EC, GFS, temp850hPa is on the Russian side (Laptev and ESS) even though we have "pretty stable vortex" (compared to last 5 years), and cold air hanging there. I mean cci has Russian coast (the land) close to the average around day 7 (somewhere below, somewhere above), and it seems to follow meteociel GFS very well, but the seas are "burning".

Comparison, same date, same model (GFS 6z)




I mean look at the Bering Strait 850hPa anomalies, they are the highest on meteociel, but cci 2m seems to follow that very well, perhaps because there shouldn't be ice there anyway, compared to the average?

This is an interesting set of questions I'd love to hear the opinions of some of the experts here.

colchonero

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #347 on: October 15, 2018, 03:40:34 PM »
I mean if that is the case, on the one hand, it is good news, cause lot of stored heat should go away under this "cold spell", but on the other hand it is really bad news, cause if the area would have been already ice covered it  could have used these weather conditions to thicken a little bit, cause we know how unstable polar vortex is lately, and it is only a matter of time before there is another "attack" from the south. But now even if the ice forms there at the end of this period(7-10days), and that is a big IF, it will be very thin, and very vulnerable if there is another warm air advection from lower latitudes end of Oct or even beginning of Nov.

jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #348 on: October 15, 2018, 03:53:15 PM »
I mean if that is the case, on the one hand, it is good news, cause lot of stored heat should go away under this "cold spell", but on the other hand it is really bad news, cause if the area would have been already ice covered it  could have used these weather conditions to thicken a little bit, cause we know how unstable polar vortex is lately, and it is only a matter of time before there is another "attack" from the south. But now even if the ice forms there at the end of this period(7-10days), and that is a big IF, it will be very thin, and very vulnerable if there is another warm air advection from lower latitudes end of Oct or even beginning of Nov.
Found this paper, may be useful in understanding the dynamics.  It's going to take a while for me to digest it; the calculus will be a challenge for me.  However, I'm able glean some useful tidbits from it about the general dynamics which apply:

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijas/2013/503727/

My take on things - making the heat more accessible is good, but there is a fixed limit on how fast that heat can leave the atmosphere. 

A metaphor if you will, our bucket has a hole that only lets water out just so fast.  If we pour more water into it, we still have the same aperture.  Pressure may cause a little more to flow out, but if that doesn't keep up with what we add, the water level in the bucket will still rise.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 04:03:29 PM by jdallen »
This space for Rent.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #349 on: October 15, 2018, 06:28:48 PM »
Wind on the ice edge.
Expansion towards Severnaya Zemlya, compaction off Svalbard.
Polarview, oct14