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oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #450 on: October 20, 2018, 07:29:02 PM »
Gerontocrat, don't forget that when the topmost water surface is cooled it sinks, and ia replaced by warmer water below. This process is stopped when the watef is shallow, or when the surface flash-freezes into floating ice under a very low temperature. I think this is where the -10C or -7C air temps come from.
Of course it also depends on the stillness of the water (which is why coastal ice appears more quickly) and on salinity (which is why areas which have recently melted can freeze much more easily).

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #451 on: October 20, 2018, 07:50:07 PM »
Gerontocrat, don't forget that when the topmost water surface is cooled it sinks, and ia replaced by warmer water below. This process is stopped when the watef is shallow, or when the surface flash-freezes into floating ice under a very low temperature. I think this is where the -10C or -7C air temps come from.
Of course it also depends on the stillness of the water (which is why coastal ice appears more quickly) and on salinity (which is why areas which have recently melted can freeze much more easily).
Hence the caveats in NSIDCs little article containing the Lebedev formula. (Don't forget Snow)

But you have to start somewhere and then put in all the parameters that modify the formula (if the formula itself holds - guess it would need some lab and field proofs that I understand Lebedev carried out). If there is no relationship between ice thickness and cumulative FDDs it makes the FDD data somewhat pointless.

But do the caveats also have formulae attached to them? I can see the need for a Cray supercomputer emerging.
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Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #452 on: October 20, 2018, 08:47:03 PM »
Gerontocrat, don't forget that when the topmost water surface is cooled it sinks, and ia replaced by warmer water below. This process is stopped when the watef is shallow, or when the surface flash-freezes into floating ice under a very low temperature. I think this is where the -10C or -7C air temps come from.
Of course it also depends on the stillness of the water (which is why coastal ice appears more quickly) and on salinity (which is why areas which have recently melted can freeze much more easily).

I can go into the mountains on a bitter cold day and drink fresh water from a running stream.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #453 on: October 20, 2018, 09:48:39 PM »
-11C

it's a rule of thumb given a few other conditions.

- water has to be between 0-2C depending on salinity

- the mixing with deeper layer has to come to a halt (several reasons can apply)

- water surface conditions matter, i.e wave action

which is why it's a rule of thumb for saline seawater that's not glassy and no insolaton is adding energy to the surface etc.

i hope it helps
« Last Edit: October 21, 2018, 05:22:25 PM by magnamentis »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #454 on: October 20, 2018, 10:22:19 PM »
I'm grateful that Wayne took temperature measurements and photographs and posted them to add to the very limited 'on the ground' information available to us.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #455 on: October 20, 2018, 10:23:44 PM »

Quote
New sea ice starts from 3 important concurring factors: -1.8 C water, little or no sea waves and colder than -11 C surface temperatures....

...  there is an apparent thermal balance,  where as,  colder than -11 C  surface air seems
imperative for sea ice to form.WD October 4, 2016   


So far -11 degrees for sea ice formation looks like a load of....


There is an observation showing a correlation and if you can't think of a model to fit the data then it's probably your understanding that's a load and not the observation! Don't dismiss observations because you don't like them.

My guess is the water can't lose enough heat rapidly enough through cooling air. The cooling top layer of the ocean becomes dense and circulates as it loses heat. You end up with a pattern of insulating cold air and circulating water that warms as you circulate the top 100m of the ocean. Not conducive to forming ice.

I thought that it was that the IR loss of both the ocean and the atmosphere producing the correct conditions for ice formation. An under those conditions the atmosphere is -11C and the water at freezing point. The freezing water is going to make a lot of heat as ice forms.

FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #456 on: October 20, 2018, 10:42:44 PM »
The salinity gradients are a big deal in whether there's mixing and/or refreezing. We saw what appeared to be flash freezing in an area in the Beaufort sea where there had been a large amount of ice melting in the summer. It's a good bet that there was a stable fresh water layer at the surface that didn't mix.

I found Wayne's observations interesting, but they don't include a number of factors including salinity and stability of the sea water column that could affect freezing.

Sterks

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #457 on: October 21, 2018, 12:58:15 AM »
I'm grateful that Wayne took temperature measurements and photographs and posted them to add to the very limited 'on the ground' information available to us.
The solar ray deflection measurements to determine ice thickness, plus those comments at Neven’s over the many years that have proven more often wrong than right? Like the predictions of summer wall-to-wall clear skies (the Big Blue or something like that) done during some recent years that ended with cloudest summers? Yes, yes, very valuable.

Why do we have a thread called ‘what the buoys are telling’, and not one ‘What Wayne is telling’ given his invaluable on the ground insights?

Sorry I like the guy, he seems nice and all and always responds to everyone very civic way, but he is at odds with established scientific facts, and one has to reject that from the outset.

Rod

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #458 on: October 21, 2018, 01:41:38 AM »

Sorry I like the guy, he seems nice and all and always responds to everyone very civic way, but he is at odds with established scientific facts, and one has to reject that from the outset.

How many times have you been to the arctic to take measurements?   Im guessing you are reading from an undergraduate thermodynamics textbook and pretending to be an expert.   College text books are great for talking about theory under ideal conditions in the lab.  However, I have been involved in science for almost 30 years, and theory almost never matches reality. 

We have very little observational data from the arctic.  Wayne did us a great service by taking measurements, in the arctic, and reporting them to us.  The real world is very different from what computer models and undergraduate text books say it is. 

I usually keep my mouth shut and just observe on this forum.  Almost everyone who contributes to this forum is really smart.  But lately people who are overbearing, and often times wrong, are dictating the direction of discussion and ruining it for everyone. 

There are many, many things we don't know about the arctic.  If you have a theory great!   But don't call it "established scientific fact" unless you can point to undisputed peer reviewed journal articles that have established those facts through observational data. 

 

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #459 on: October 21, 2018, 05:59:15 AM »
Sorry for the can of worms I proffered, but I'm glad to see the refutations.  I trust I'll remember this in the future.  (I recall the original "-10C air temp before first ice" was a personal 'general' observation of a person who lives or works along an Arctic shore.)
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binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #460 on: October 21, 2018, 09:25:34 AM »
It seems that the "-11" or "-10" degrees needed before sea ice forms discussion is doomed to repeat it self regularly. As we apparently all know by now, this is not based on scientific fact but on the close observations of a single individual who seems to know what he was doing.

Those of us who have direct experience of cold climates are aware that sea-ice does not usually form in mildly frosty weather. Around the coast of Iceland sea-ice never forms, except in very rare cases in sheltered harbours, but then again winter temperatures along the coastline very rarely fall below -5 degrees C.

In Denmark, sea-ice does form every few years during prolonged cold spells where temperatures over land fall well below -10 degrees for several days running. Sea-ice starts to grow in harbours and sheltered inlets along the east coast, where there is little to no wave action, but never along the more exposed west coast.

So my pesonal experience of cold-but-not-arctic environments tells me that air temperatures of e.g. -5 are not enough to start sea ice formation in open water. But I must admit that I have no idea whether -5 is enough to start ice growing between ice floes.

Once again a vista of ignorance opens up, begging for the intrepid explorer to chart and measure.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
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johnm33

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #461 on: October 21, 2018, 10:21:58 AM »
Perhaps we need an ice physics thread?

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #462 on: October 21, 2018, 11:31:03 AM »

Quote
New sea ice starts from 3 important concurring factors: -1.8 C water, little or no sea waves and colder than -11 C surface temperatures....

...  there is an apparent thermal balance,  where as,  colder than -11 C  surface air seems
imperative for sea ice to form.WD October 4, 2016   

So far -11 degrees for sea ice formation looks like a load of....
There is an observation showing a correlation and if you can't think of a model to fit the data then it's probably your understanding that's a load and not the observation! Don't dismiss observations because you don't like them.

My guess is the water can't lose enough heat rapidly enough through cooling air. The cooling top layer of the ocean becomes dense and circulates as it loses heat. You end up with a pattern of insulating cold air and circulating water that warms as you circulate the top 100m of the ocean. Not conducive to forming ice.

I thought that it was that the IR loss of both the ocean and the atmosphere producing the correct conditions for ice formation. An under those conditions the atmosphere is -11C and the water at freezing point. The freezing water is going to make a lot of heat as ice forms.
I rather thought that I would be shot down, but it was worth it.

My conclusion is - is that once again one is in an on-going lack of data situation. Wayne's observations were about one location in the Arctic (the Archipelago) over one small? period of time. That location includes lots of land(?) which is a very different environment than, say, the Central Arctic, itself very different from, say, , Hudson Bay. I am sure that his observations were methodical and accurate but surely not sufficient to make a general rule applicable to all the Arctic (and not to the Northern Caspian Sea - see a post some way back).

The comments on the -11 air temperature "rule of thumb" illustrated the many factors involved in sea ice formation, but none pointed to a study or series of studies that collected data over many locations with different environmental conditions. So is it a case of knowing all the parameters but not being able to put values on them?

I look at a current GFS map of Arctic temperatures as of today and it is nearly all below freezing.  Do I follow blindly the -11 degree rule and as a generalisation say there is not much of the Arctic where ice is going to form?

I am confused.
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #463 on: October 21, 2018, 11:36:23 AM »
The Russian scientist Vladamir Vize ( the island was called after him ) was the Godfather of ice formation. There is a rather scary looking picture of him here on Wiki !

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Wiese

Maybe earlier in the season temps close to -10 are needed to get things going but nilas will form with air temps at -7.
IIRC the recent thin new ice that formed in the western Beaufort temps were not much lower than -7 C (according to nullschool)

I don't suppose plastic in the Arctic Ocean will help the situation.
12,000 pieces of microplastic particles per litre of sea ice (and a lot in the water presumably)
Anyone done the physics on that?

The Arctic Ocean is now "a major global sink for plastic pollution, many times more concentrated than the well-known great Pacific garbage patch."

I also think I heard that algae and bacteria cling to microplastics. Another complicating factor.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/24/record-levels-of-plastic-discovered-in-arctic-sea-ice

« Last Edit: October 21, 2018, 12:54:59 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Sterks

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #464 on: October 21, 2018, 12:37:58 PM »
Im guessing you are reading from an undergraduate thermodynamics textbook and pretending to be an expert.
This guess, I can tell you, is wrong. The rest is your opinion.

There are many, many things we don't know about the arctic.  If you have a theory great!   But don't call it "established scientific fact" unless you can point to undisputed peer reviewed journal articles that have established those facts through observational data. 
Ok, perhaps it is the way Wayne asserted that "surface temperature". Does he mean water surface? In which case I don't have to go to any peer-reviewed paper: the continuity of temperature across the interface of bodies on different states (solid-liquid-gas) is something I have measured in the lab, imposed as boundary conditions in the computational lab, and frankly I hope it is "common understanding" in this high-level educated forum.

If he means 2m temperature, or temperature measured at land nearby the coast where he is or was doing his ice measurements, then that is a different story. I suscribe to what Binntho and Tor say above. A temperature well under freezing (as measured in land, near the freezing ocean) is required for a period of time because water is releasing its latent heat, and if you go down near the water and place a thermometer near the surface, it will be nonetheless -2C. That the (land) temperature has to be under -11C, for some uncertain period of time, well I doubt it. Everything will depend on which sea is this being measured and what type of sea (shallow or deep, salty or less salty) it is, if ocean currents reach the place, what was the ocean temperature at the surface and in depth to start with, if the location is open coast or some narrow inlet, etc etc.

Then we have temperatures well into the ocean. As people are observing these days, freezing is happening with now-casts showing 2M air temperatures of around -5C. Not so far from -1.8C. This year, for instance, the Beaufort sea has not warmed as much as other years during summer, so we are observing this flash refreeze around the ice remains that almost disappeared. The reason is simple, temperatures did not build up much above freezing, and not much time and not much low temperatures are required to get the water surface at freezing temperature and the overall heat balance negative. Ocean in relative calm, absent of heat transport from beneath, and of mechanical effects that would delay the formation of sizeable ice structures (not the delay of freezing certainly), well there you go.

It is nothing against the person of Wayne, but he has a PUBLIC blog where he does PUBLIC claims, and as such one can criticize his public persona for doing such bold claims that, honestly, do not make much sense to me, and open up the door to pseudo-science. Like Goddard, Watts, Trump and the likes are routinely (and correctly IMO) criticized here.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #465 on: October 21, 2018, 07:15:36 PM »

Yes. We need more data. I am sure there is enough information and speculation in this thread to design a really good experiment. Now we just need someone to get the grant to do the research! It's really interesting that the one observation we have is so at odds from what one expects from simple thermodynamics.

It might be that a good model that fits observations will be widely applicable, and possibly give us more insight as to just how downwelling IR affects the freezing of the Arctic.

ps. I repressed how science funding works: Build the model, get the results, and then perhaps get a grant to do the work.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #466 on: October 21, 2018, 09:08:25 PM »
Three seas had similar weather:
Chukchi - warm surface water, medium salinity, late freezing
ESS - cold surface water, low salinity, average freezing
Laptev - cool surface water, high salinity, late freezing

Beaufort had colder weather - cold surface water, low salinity, early freezing well under way

Whatever the temperature needs to be, it's not cold enough to freeze all of the CAB yet.
Uni Bremen SMOS thin ice thickness, oct10-20
(colours around the pole hole aren't an indication of ice thickness)

Mercator 0m salinity, oct20
Wipneus regional extent, oct20

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #467 on: October 21, 2018, 09:14:50 PM »
DMI N 80 average temp hasn't dropped below -8C for about a month and a half longer than normal, which is a record. Next year the only thickish safeish ice will be just north of CAA. Greenland looks set to be the northern hemisphere's center of cold within a decade. Weird weird weather is coming.
big time oops

be cause

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #468 on: October 22, 2018, 12:08:07 AM »
DMI N 80 average temp hasn't dropped below -8C for about a month and a half longer than normal, which is a record.

sorry GSY but it was -9'C  4 weeks ago and - 10'C today

Next year the only thickish safeish ice will be just north of CAA. Greenland looks set to be the northern hemisphere's center of cold within a decade. Weird weird weather is coming ]

Little arguement tonight as it's below -40'C again over central Greenland . I warned friends as far away as S.Spain yesterday that that cold was headed Western Europe's way . Tonight I see 'Arctic cold' on the bbc long range  forecast .. not strictly accurate ..

living as I do in N. Ireland I keep an eye on Greenland .. my big neighbour . I don't look forward to a planet with a tilted cap .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #469 on: October 22, 2018, 12:55:04 AM »

Next year the only thickish safeish ice will be just north of CAA. Greenland looks set to be the northern hemisphere's center of cold within a decade. Weird weird weather is coming ]



We've got to try to be smart about these things... For all of us seeking a safe place for the collapse or extreme storms, We all understand that the North atlantic (where the cool pool meets the heat of Europe will be one of the most likely places for super storms.  I'd thing the runnoff zone on the Western side down around Newfoundland would also be a big zone for storms and indeed up over greenland to whatever PAC is left N. of greenland.  One Harvey sized rain bomb on the interior of greenland could flush the ice out to see SUPER fast! 


As the last remaining cold spot, we can best assume GREENLAND will be under attack from LOWS constantly eating away at it.  IF it was 30+C for over a month over britain this past year, I see no reason why such a High would not develop over Greenland... 90-F there for a month would be SHOCKING
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #470 on: October 22, 2018, 01:03:59 AM »
does anyone know of modelling done with a "tilted cap"? this idea has really fascinated me for a while and i believe we are heading there very soon. i don't give too much credence to models, but they have their uses. also, are there any weather wonks who have their own ideas. thanks.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #471 on: October 22, 2018, 01:13:37 AM »
For all of us seeking a safe place for the collapse or extreme storms...

This is pretty obvious IMO. The northern hemisphere will undergo extreme changes in climate. Every ecosystem will be ****ed.  Mad Max dust storm terribleness most places. The southern hemisphere should be more resilient but it will probably be too hot most places (meaning too much of a deviation from normal for the ecosystem to adapt). Thus being near an ocean will be good cuz oceans won't be able to heat up very easily. Also, being close to Antarctica's ice is another stabilizer. There really is only one place on earth that fits the description: Patagonia. See you there.

big time oops

LDorey

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #472 on: October 22, 2018, 03:34:27 AM »
Regarding the -11 freezing rule of thumb clearly there a ton of scientific holes in it ( probably why its called a rule of thumb) but I bet there's some temp X you won't consistently see in an area until the water hits the magic -1.8 and all the warm water at the top is mixed out, before then the heat lost to the air doesn't really allow the temp to drop to lower than -10, ( ignoring transitory events caused by wind, storms, etc) Anyway my theory is that X is pretty close to -11, and as long as we keep that in mind it's useful and we no Cray super computer req'd....anyway that's my theory that dovetails with the the crazy 80 north dmi awd lack of fdd. And there is lots of warm water this year that's going to freeze over (hopefully), so it should be easy to verify (or debunk).

Ktb

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #473 on: October 22, 2018, 07:26:37 AM »
Discuss collapse in the appropriate threads please!
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #474 on: October 22, 2018, 08:25:52 AM »
October 9-21.

Sleepy

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #475 on: October 22, 2018, 08:27:29 AM »
living as I do in N. Ireland I keep an eye on Greenland .. my big neighbour . I don't look forward to a planet with a tilted cap .. b.c.
It depends on how one perceives the world.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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El Cid

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #476 on: October 22, 2018, 08:52:30 AM »
For all of us seeking a safe place for the collapse or extreme storms...

Every ecosystem will be ****ed.  Mad Max dust storm terribleness most places.

Dust storms? In a world where the Arctic is no longer a desert and there will be much more water vapour in the NH midlatitudes?
I very much doubt it.

Sorry about the offtopic...

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #477 on: October 22, 2018, 08:55:25 AM »
October 9-21.
Thanks Aluminium! The two ice growth areas towrds Siberia are interesting. Is there a reason they're located the way they are? A question for speculation at least for me.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #478 on: October 22, 2018, 10:52:25 AM »
Arctic Ocean sea-ice is at the lowest extent on record for this date.
(bottom graph includes 2007)
https://tinyurl.com/yafst6ob

( Northern hemisphere sea-ice is about 4th lowest: https://tinyurl.com/mach5ge )
« Last Edit: October 22, 2018, 11:08:16 AM by Thomas Barlow »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #479 on: October 22, 2018, 11:26:55 AM »
Discuss collapse in the appropriate threads please!
Well said, Ktb
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litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #480 on: October 22, 2018, 04:26:57 PM »
The to-date arctic sea ice extent for 2007 is now the lowest extent, & 2007 is soon to be passed by 2016 sea ice low.....
With all this sea ice... "decrease of the increase", it will be very interesting to see what the to-date sea ice extent of 2018 will bring in these future weeks, since to-date 2018 sea ice extent is rivaling 2012, 2007, & 2016, & a "long term" 2018 High Arctic high temperature is presently reigning.
As stated above, to-date 2016 sea ice low established itself as the lowest of any satellite record to-date. However, while all other years gained more sea ice, 2018 Arctic sea ice tiny gains are presently pacing with 2016 & even a trace lower, right now. In the weeks ahead tho, are 2016's wide & record lows & even sea ice LOSSES, during periods of dramatic sea ice gains. It just seems tough to see, that 2018 can continue to track with 2016, without even more warmth pouring into the High Arctic. Present short term predictions seem to indicate that cold sliding off the Greenland Ice Sheet (with some help from Canadian archipelago?) should direct itself deeper into the High Arctic & blunt any possibility of great increases in 2018 High Arctic heat, which are  already 8degC over average.   
« Last Edit: October 23, 2018, 01:37:46 PM by litesong »

harpy

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #481 on: October 22, 2018, 04:27:49 PM »
Update:


Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #482 on: October 22, 2018, 05:38:27 PM »
The DMI 80N temperature is currently just about where it was this time the past 3 years, within a few days or a few degrees.
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harpy

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #483 on: October 22, 2018, 06:16:29 PM »
Do you have a graph of the previous years, rather than just some average line?

Stephan

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #484 on: October 22, 2018, 06:33:46 PM »
Do you have a graph of the previous years, rather than just some average line?
You can watch every single year here: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
and the anomaly here: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

dnem

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #485 on: October 22, 2018, 07:03:50 PM »
And Zach Labe has a nice version here: http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #486 on: October 22, 2018, 07:35:54 PM »
I am with A-team(?) on the over reliance on temperatures North of 80 from DMI. Being such a small proportion of the Arctic Ocean is one thing, another is that it can be downright misleading. 

e.g. The two images from GFS attached show lowish anomalies North of 80 but high anomalies in an arc from the western edge of the CAA all the way round the Arctic to Novaya Zemla.

I so wish Tealight aka Nico Sun did estimates of FDDs for the Arctic Ocean as a whole, or even better sea by sea as he does for Albedo warming potential. All I want for Xmas is a....
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #487 on: October 22, 2018, 08:26:51 PM »
Does anyone know which area Climate Reanalyzer uses when it comes to "2m Temperature Anomaly" in the Arctic (e.g. today it is +3,1 °C)?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #488 on: October 22, 2018, 08:29:20 PM »
The DMI 80N temperature is currently just about where it was this time the past 3 years, within a few days or a few degrees.

A few degrees, almost all of which have been on the high side, not the low side.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #489 on: October 22, 2018, 08:33:07 PM »
I am with A-team(?) on the over reliance on temperatures North of 80 from DMI. Being such a small proportion of the Arctic Ocean is one thing, another is that it can be downright misleading. 

DMI 80 N is about the same as sticking your finger in your mouth and then pointing it up in the air.  I doesn't give much detail, but it tells you which way the wind is blowing.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #490 on: October 22, 2018, 09:37:54 PM »
Does anyone know which area Climate Reanalyzer uses when it comes to "2m Temperature Anomaly" in the Arctic (e.g. today it is +3,1 °C)?

Arctic av temp 65 to 90 degrees north.
Anomaly = difference from 1979-2000 average.

Quote from https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#hrrr.conus-lc.t2

Quote
Temperature Anomaly Maps
The variable Temperature 2m Anomaly is available for the GFS model. Temperature anomaly (at 2 meters above the surface) refers to the departure of the current forecasted temperature from a climate baseline. Climate Reanalyzer uses a 1979-2000 climate baseline derived from the reanalysis of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSR/CFSV2). This baseline is chosen over the more typical 1981-2010 climate normal for the simple reason that it better approximates historical climatology, as shown here in relation to a 1880-2014 global land-ocean temperature index from NASA GISS.

GFS temperature anomaly maps for the World, Arctic, and Antarctic display at the right of the image a list of area-weighted average anomaly values for the World, Northern Hemisphere (Eq-90°N), Southern Hemisphere (Eq-90°S), Arctic (65°N-90°N), Antarctic (65°S-90°S), and Tropics (25°S-25°N).
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sja45uk

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #491 on: October 23, 2018, 11:12:45 AM »
I have Googled hard but cannot seem to find a value in 1000 km^2 for the surface area of the Central Arctic Basin. I want to produce a table that together with a list of areas for the other arctic regions (as used for freezing data) adds up to an 'official' area of the Arctic Ocean as defined by the International Hydrological Organization.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #492 on: October 23, 2018, 11:43:27 AM »
CAA export is slowing, it looks like the Mclure Strait has mostly frozen.
ascat, day285-295.

sedziobs

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #493 on: October 23, 2018, 03:46:01 PM »
Looks like the Byam Martin Channel is still moving.

Tealight

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #494 on: October 23, 2018, 04:33:16 PM »
I so wish Tealight aka Nico Sun did estimates of FDDs for the Arctic Ocean as a whole, or even better sea by sea as he does for Albedo warming potential. All I want for Xmas is a....

I think he wants it as well, but he has only a limited amount of time and if he does a new gridded FDD analysis it will be a full FDD map of the Arctic and not just a few new graphs.

Currently he is busy with a daily & year-round combined Albedo Warming Potential for Land & Ocean (see map below)

The data is only available since 1997 and he doesn't have a regional breakdown yet for this projection.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #495 on: October 23, 2018, 04:43:50 PM »
I so wish Tealight aka Nico Sun did estimates of FDDs for the Arctic Ocean as a whole, or even better sea by sea as he does for Albedo warming potential. All I want for Xmas is a....

I think he wants it as well, but he has only a limited amount of time and if he does a new gridded FDD analysis it will be a full FDD map of the Arctic and not just a few new graphs.

Currently he is busy with a daily & year-round combined Albedo Warming Potential for Land & Ocean (see map below)

The data is only available since 1997 and he doesn't have a regional breakdown yet for this projection.

You have to admit it was worth a try, and yes, I would have assumed that the visuals Nico Sun (aka Tealight?) produces are simply a by-product from a comprehensive database with many uses. But now we know that there is something new and significant in the works, and I can nag him? them both? about that.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #496 on: October 23, 2018, 08:37:50 PM »
Looks like the Byam Martin Channel is still moving.
Yes, though probably not for long, and the Nares.
worldview, nares strait, viirs brightness temperature band15n, oct23

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #497 on: October 23, 2018, 09:45:42 PM »
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #498 on: October 23, 2018, 10:23:54 PM »
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was

Equable climate, WACC...same thing.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #499 on: October 23, 2018, 10:34:48 PM »
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was
Not sure blow torch really applies in winter (if ever). Low power defroster maybe?

Jaxa has a more detailed view of freezing at the ice edge, sep1-oct22, every 2days
« Last Edit: October 23, 2018, 10:44:15 PM by uniquorn »