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litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #500 on: October 23, 2018, 11:27:12 PM »
.....2018 Arctic sea ice tiny (extent) gains are presently pacing with 2016 & even a trace lower, right now. .... It just seems tough to see, that 2018 can continue to track with 2016, without even more warmth pouring into the High Arctic......which are  already 8degC over average.   
It appears that 2018 Arctic sea ice VOLUME echoes the present lack of strong gains of sea ice extent.

sark

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #501 on: October 24, 2018, 02:08:14 AM »
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was

Eco-author: surface temperatures in the arctic have an upper limit very near to 0C as long as there is ice to melt.  You can see this in the DMI 80N temperature anomaly charts.  Even though 80N looks at such a small area, it is generally true of the Arctic as a whole.

2018 is joining a group of catastrophic years in the Arctic, 2007, 2012, 2016, although I fear it will be overshadowed by 2019 with this setup.
I am not a scientist

Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #502 on: October 24, 2018, 02:19:05 AM »
2018 is joining a group of catastrophic years in the Arctic, 2007, 2012, 2016, although I fear it will be overshadowed by 2019 with this setup.

You can point to the date in late December 2015 when the Arctic Climate changed...at least to within a day or two.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #503 on: October 24, 2018, 07:30:59 AM »
October 19-23.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #504 on: October 24, 2018, 04:29:37 PM »
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was

Equable climate, WACC...same thing.
Not the same, WACC is only for cold seasons, Equable climate for the whole year, not that it matters much. Equable climate is if Greenland has melted away, which it is very much trying to do. Well semantic difference maybe.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

colchonero

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #505 on: October 24, 2018, 05:06:46 PM »
Laptev seems to be freezing finally when I look at that animation.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #506 on: October 24, 2018, 06:20:08 PM »

And it typically freezes very quickly, being shallow and dominated by freshwater input from the Siberian rivers. It's rate of freeze is going to be interesting to watch.


Dharma Rupa

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #507 on: October 24, 2018, 06:57:08 PM »
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was

Equable climate, WACC...same thing.
Not the same, WACC is only for cold seasons, Equable climate for the whole year, not that it matters much. Equable climate is if Greenland has melted away, which it is very much trying to do. Well semantic difference maybe.

OK, but you got my point.  The cool Summers and HOT winters go together.

harpy

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #508 on: October 24, 2018, 09:12:42 PM »
The only part of the laptev that's freezing is the distant borders with the central arctic ocean?  I didn't see any ice along the cost. 

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong image?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #509 on: October 24, 2018, 09:20:58 PM »

And it typically freezes very quickly, being shallow and dominated by freshwater input from the Siberian rivers. It's rate of freeze is going to be interesting to watch.
Yes. We'll soon see if higher sea surface salinity makes a difference this year. 2016 still had some open water north of Severnaya Zemlya on this date, but ice had already reached FJL.

The top 2 images in the first animation are from the Mercator Ocean model, salinity at 0m and 34m. The bottom three are based on satellite data. Uni-Bremen SMOS, Uni-Hamburg AMSR2 and JAXA RGB. Oct1-20 is a little early to include SMOS so colours around the pole hole aren't an indication of ice thickness. Animation runs from oct1-23, ~8MB. (click on the image to run)
All the images are fixed scale but they 'dither' after conversion to gif in this case.

Second animation is uhh-amsr2, oct23 (or 24) from 2013-2018 (1.3MB)
« Last Edit: October 24, 2018, 09:39:23 PM by uniquorn »

colchonero

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #510 on: October 24, 2018, 10:09:56 PM »
The only part of the laptev that's freezing is the distant borders with the central arctic ocean?  I didn't see any ice along the cost. 

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong image?
I think you're looking at the right thing, just it is not an image, it's 4-day animation GIF, you have to click on it, to see progress during that period

ReverendMilkbone

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #511 on: October 24, 2018, 10:46:15 PM »
NSIDC puts the (at least 15%) ice extent below 2012...

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #512 on: October 24, 2018, 11:08:08 PM »
The only part of the laptev that's freezing is the distant borders with the central arctic ocean?  I didn't see any ice along the cost. 

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong image?
I think you're looking at the right thing, just it is not an image, it's 4-day animation GIF, you have to click on it, to see progress during that period

And there is a tongue of blue (new thin ice) extending from the bottom of the main pack in towards the centre of the open Laptev Sea according to this enlarged Bremen image from 231018.


litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #513 on: October 25, 2018, 02:04:15 AM »
....2018 Arctic sea ice tiny gains are presently pacing with 2016 & even a trace lower, right now. In the weeks ahead tho, are 2016's wide & record lows & even sea ice LOSSES, during periods of dramatic sea ice gains. It just seems tough to see, that 2018 can continue to track with 2016...... 
Just a few days later & already 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has risen 130,000 square kilometers more than 2016. Unless the Greenland Ice Sheet cold stops sliding off Greenland into the High Arctic, which is beginning to repress anomalously high High Arctic temperatures, to-date 2016 Arctic sea ice should dramatically continue as the lowest extent at this time of year, of any satellite year.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2018, 08:49:57 AM by litesong »

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #514 on: October 25, 2018, 05:17:47 AM »
First day of NATICE gains along Hudson Bay's shore / refreeze in Foxe Basin now almost 50% complete:



PS according to Canucks we also have first ice on its eastern shoreline now...


litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #515 on: October 25, 2018, 09:29:34 AM »
Ummm......With mild to moderate 18meter onshore winds on the Northwest U.S. coastline coupled with strong jet stream flow, above average SST warmth moves across the country. This flow, instead of making a great increase in temperature, appears to be thrusting against the vast, anomalous cold that has gripped mid-Canada & the U.S. for the last (month+?). The cold is being moved to the East. Last fall/winter, the Canadian anomalous cold (which occasionally reached into the U.S.) lasted not only in fall but (all?) through the winter. It will be interesting to see if the cold can sustain itself against the directed extra western warmth or if the warmth will continue.   
« Last Edit: October 25, 2018, 09:41:05 AM by litesong »

Iain

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #516 on: October 25, 2018, 03:23:30 PM »
Extent for day of year now lowest since '79 on NSIDC.

Oct 24th 2018: 6.546 M km^2
Oct 24th 2016 (not shown for clarity) 6.622 M km^2
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #517 on: October 25, 2018, 06:29:16 PM »

The top 2 images in the first animation are from the Mercator Ocean model, salinity at 0m and 34m. The bottom three are based on satellite data. Uni-Bremen SMOS, Uni-Hamburg AMSR2 and JAXA RGB. Oct1-20 is a little early to include SMOS so colours around the pole hole aren't an indication of ice thickness. Animation runs from oct1-23, ~8MB. (click on the image to run)
All the images are fixed scale but they 'dither' after conversion to gif in this case.


I do wish they would use the same salinity scale for each depth. It's bloody hard to compare depths.

I wonder if the Atlantification we are seeing in the Barents and southern Arctic has started to breakdown the pycnocline in the Laptev part of the Eurasian Basin. Earlier this year we saw that large polynya open, and, afterall, that's were the Atlantic waters end up before turning back north.

The more saline waters (presumably warmer Atlantic Waters) are flowing south along the Severnaya Zemlya shelf edge and seemingly dispersing into the Southern end of the Eurasian Basin encroaching south onto the Laptev shelf itself. It's hard to know if this is typical for this time of year, as it is usually covered with ice!

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #518 on: October 25, 2018, 08:22:18 PM »
It looks like, on the surface, there is a strong freshwater flow from the kara sea (from the River Ob?) that flows into the Laptev, probably causingenabling the arc of flash freezing.
The mercator model is starting to look quite accurate (despite the scales)
« Last Edit: October 25, 2018, 08:59:44 PM by uniquorn »

Rod

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #519 on: October 26, 2018, 05:15:00 AM »
Quote from: RoxTheGeologist

I wonder if the Atlantification we are seeing in the Barents and southern Arctic has started to breakdown the pycnocline in the Laptev part of the Eurasian Basin.

Google, Igor V. Polyakov.  He has a couple of recent papers I think you will find interesting.  I can't link them because I'm on a phone, but they are open access.

His papers won't answer all of your questions, but they are very interesting. 

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #520 on: October 26, 2018, 07:58:03 AM »
litesong; October 25, 2018, 02:04:15 AM
Just a few days later & already 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has risen 130,000 square kilometers more than 2016......to-date 2016 Arctic sea ice should dramatically continue as the lowest extent at this time of year, of any satellite year.
/////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to a quarter million square kilometers more than 2016.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #521 on: October 26, 2018, 08:01:34 AM »
October 21-25.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #522 on: October 26, 2018, 11:26:51 AM »
Thanks Aluminium. I see the ESS arm has been working out and developed some muscles.  :D

Laptev closing in on all sides, finally.

Iain

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #523 on: October 26, 2018, 03:40:37 PM »
2018 growth has accelerated, 2016 is now the lowest extent for October 25th, 2018 2nd lowest.

Is there such a measure as extent days or volume days, or average extent/volume for a month or so either side of the max and min?

The PIOMAS page publishes a graph of summer minimum and winter maximum volumes with a linear trend of loss per decade.

Taking only the max and mins each year yields spikey data, the averages above I expect to be smoother, so the observed values would deviate less from a linear trend line.
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #524 on: October 26, 2018, 05:46:17 PM »
Quote from: RoxTheGeologist

I wonder if the Atlantification we are seeing in the Barents and southern Arctic has started to breakdown the pycnocline in the Laptev part of the Eurasian Basin.

Google, Igor V. Polyakov.  He has a couple of recent papers I think you will find interesting.  I can't link them because I'm on a phone, but they are open access.

His papers won't answer all of your questions, but they are very interesting.

I read the one about the Atlantification breaking down the pycnocline alone the Svalbard FJL front. I think we might be seeing that Atlantification now extending along the steep shelf to the west of Severnaya Zelyma and into the southern tip of the Eurasian basin.

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #525 on: October 26, 2018, 09:19:49 PM »
October 21-25.
I have read here in the past how ice must grow from the coast or adjacent to existing ice, therefore once we get a blue ocean situation the refreeze might be very delayed (if at all). This animation is a fine example of how given enough cold temps over enough time the surface of open water will freeze even when not adjacent to any coast or other ice.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #526 on: October 26, 2018, 11:43:21 PM »
As the Arctic scorches... the only explanation for the attached is albedo, IMO.

harpy

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #527 on: October 27, 2018, 03:13:20 AM »
October 21-25.
I have read here in the past how ice must grow from the coast or adjacent to existing ice, therefore once we get a blue ocean situation the refreeze might be very delayed (if at all). This animation is a fine example of how given enough cold temps over enough time the surface of open water will freeze even when not adjacent to any coast or other ice.

That's not what I'm observing.

Ice is growing from the pre existing ice outward towards the shores, at least for now.  Maybe this is because we're early in the "freezing season"?

Alexander555

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #528 on: October 27, 2018, 09:18:24 AM »
BBR, probably not only albedo. Is it not possible that the same factors that create that cold anomaly, also create an accumulation of heat in the ocean ? If that's the case we shouls see it in spring.

binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #529 on: October 27, 2018, 09:23:48 AM »
I donĀ“t really see what albedo has to do with the extreme cold measured in Greenland. For one thing, the sun hardly glances the area, and besides there isn't any more snow there now than usual (it's a giant glacier!)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #530 on: October 27, 2018, 11:36:52 AM »
This should probably go in the Arctic Background thread, but it is freezing season news so....

Yesterday I had the wondrously unexpected pleasure of meeting Sir Wally Herbert's wife, daughter and granddaughter:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1055878754055151619

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #531 on: October 27, 2018, 03:56:20 PM »
This should probably go in the Arctic Background thread, but it is freezing season news so....

A powerful video for someone who already understands the world of hurt that is hurtling towards us but, for those who don't, videos about the Inuit or the demise of polar bears is pointless and easily dismissed.

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #532 on: October 27, 2018, 06:16:08 PM »
litesong; October 25, 2018, 02:04:15 AM
Just a few days later & already 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has risen 130,000 square kilometers more than 2016......to-date 2016 Arctic sea ice should dramatically continue as the lowest extent at this time of year, of any satellite year.
/////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to a quarter million square kilometers more than 2016.
///////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to 440,000 square kilometers more than 2016. The 2018 sea ice rise has even passed the 2012, so 2018 is already in to-date 3rd place lowest sea ice.
 As stated in earlier posts, cold sliding off the Greenland Ice Sheet & then proceeding into the High Arctic is reducing heat in the High Arctic, allowing increasing Arctic sea ice to form. I had NOT expected to-date 2018 sea ice to keep up with the record 2016 low sea ice. & the record high temperature anomalies of 2016 High Arctic are still ahead.   

jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #533 on: October 28, 2018, 02:26:21 AM »
This should probably go in the Arctic Background thread, but it is freezing season news so....

Yesterday I had the wondrously unexpected pleasure of meeting Sir Wally Herbert's wife, daughter and granddaughter:

Egad.  That video was filmed in *2006*!
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #534 on: October 28, 2018, 07:09:31 AM »
October 23-27.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #535 on: October 28, 2018, 12:38:22 PM »
From Rick Thoman:

"Beaufort Sea is now largely iced-up. The area with >15% ice cover reached 95% of the basin area on Oct 23 (@NSIDC data), making this the earliest "ice-over" of the Beaufort since 2002".

The 40-year trend of ice-over date tells a different story. Trend is showing the Beaufort is icing over about 1 month later than it did circa 1980.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #536 on: October 28, 2018, 01:30:02 PM »
Egad.  That video was filmed in *2006*!

Quite so.

Kari has considerable experience in such matters. She is the one on the left, and the one on the right!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #537 on: October 28, 2018, 03:07:54 PM »
This world SST graph tells a story from my early childhood:
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst/
My grandparents took me to the Pacific shores in northern Washington state in 1955, early June. Generally, I had a great time, while in swim trunks walking the shores & wading a bit into the incoming surf. They asked me to wade a bit further out, crouch down & they would take pictures of the surf breaking around me. As is usual, people fool with the camera & take too much time before taking pictures. Meanwhile, the cold surf (note the graph) had broken over me several times & I was getting really cold. Finally, they took some pictures & all they got were pictures of me looking behind me at the cold water that was pouring on me..... not one showed my face. Yeah, that water was cold (lower 50degF?).     

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #538 on: October 28, 2018, 08:54:50 PM »
From Rick Thoman:

"Beaufort Sea is now largely iced-up. The area with >15% ice cover reached 95% of the basin area on Oct 23 (@NSIDC data), making this the earliest "ice-over" of the Beaufort since 2002".

The 40-year trend of ice-over date tells a different story. Trend is showing the Beaufort is icing over about 1 month later than it did circa 1980.
I guess the CAA might show a similar story. But as regards area, there has been a hiccup in the last two days for both the Beaufort and CAA - area in reverse gear.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #539 on: October 28, 2018, 09:08:20 PM »
From Rick Thoman:

"Beaufort Sea is now largely iced-up. The area with >15% ice cover reached 95% of the basin area on Oct 23 (@NSIDC data), making this the earliest "ice-over" of the Beaufort since 2002".

The 40-year trend of ice-over date tells a different story. Trend is showing the Beaufort is icing over about 1 month later than it did circa 1980.
I guess the CAA might show a similar story. But as regards area, there has been a hiccup in the last two days for both the Beaufort and CAA - area in reverse gear.

The drop in CAA / Beaufort = ice heading for Baffin (IMO). The expansion in Baffin has been incredible the past few days.

Also: those CAA #s are incredible. Fastest refreeze in the satellite record this year?

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #540 on: October 29, 2018, 02:44:05 AM »
litesong; October 25, 2018, 02:04:15 AM
Just a few days later & already 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has risen 130,000 square kilometers more than 2016......to-date 2016 Arctic sea ice should dramatically continue as the lowest extent at this time of year, of any satellite year.
/////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to a quarter million square kilometers more than 2016.
///////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to 440,000 square kilometers more than 2016. The 2018 sea ice rise has even passed the 2012, so 2018 is already in to-date 3rd place lowest sea ice.
 As stated in earlier posts, cold sliding off the Greenland Ice Sheet & then proceeding into the High Arctic is reducing heat in the High Arctic, allowing increasing Arctic sea ice to form. I had NOT expected to-date 2018 sea ice to keep up with the record 2016 low sea ice. & the record high temperature anomalies of 2016 High Arctic are still ahead.
/////////
A day later, to-date 2018 Arctic sea ice extent has jumped to 560,000 square kilometers more than 2016.   

Eco-Author

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #541 on: October 29, 2018, 09:09:19 AM »
Was thinking the early CAA ice was mainly due to export through the Garlic Press and NWP?  Perhaps with that 'push' over... we are returning to more normal growth. 

With a Ridge over the Bearing, it was only natural a cold trough formed behind it over the CAA too... 

Just a general observation but every year we see the ice form all be it a more slowly but it still forms which leads me to doubt year long blue oceans bar some sort of Kelvin wave/intense mixing as ice continues to bottom out each year.  I for one argue we might just well be gone by the first blue ocean so waiting for it to make changes seems dumb!
Self-sufficiency and Durability to disasters are the absolute keys to nearly any disaster you can think of such as War, economic collapse, pandemics, Global warming, quakes, volcanoes, Hurricanes... all of which put solar farms etc. and power grids at risk!

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #542 on: October 29, 2018, 11:24:09 AM »
The wind changes and the ice lifts off.
Worldview, bt15n, nth greenland, oct27-28. https://tinyurl.com/y9mzwm8c

amsr2-uhh, foxe basin-baffin bay, sep6-oct28(1.8MB)
« Last Edit: October 29, 2018, 11:49:13 AM by uniquorn »

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #543 on: October 29, 2018, 03:25:29 PM »
Despite relatively high +ve temp anomalies on the Russian side and the Pacific entrance,  3 seas are continuing to rapidly gain ice, while Kara may be about to join them.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #544 on: October 30, 2018, 06:57:40 AM »
October 25-29.

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #545 on: October 30, 2018, 07:25:38 AM »
Despite relatively high +ve temp anomalies on the Russian side and the Pacific entrance,  3 seas are continuing to rapidly gain ice, while Kara may be about to join them.
The North Atlantic Drift should restrengthen to prevent ice formation up there in the darkness to get a BOE for the whole year. This is a bit more complicated situation than some frozen pool in the river run, but not by much. If the pool is small enough the upstream rushing waters may keep it open for quite long into the winter. Thus I've imagined the remnant ice in the CAB would start to rotate quite quickly before a BOE can happen. Well maybe on the same year, so no predictive value here either.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #546 on: October 30, 2018, 09:27:41 AM »
Always interesting to look through those 5 day progressions from Aluminium and observe the areas where ice is developing swiftly and where it is not.

The Laptev is closing in but still we have an area that is still north of 80 ( at circa 80 N 140 E ) that has developed very little since ice minimum. Is this the same area where we have seen early opening/polynya before in the Spring ? Was there suspicion that this section of the Arctic is prone to warm upwewlling and difficult to freeze ?

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #547 on: October 30, 2018, 10:42:47 AM »
As the Arctic scorches... the only explanation for the attached is albedo, IMO.
Greenland scientist, Jason Box, has said it has to do with the wavy jet-stream - due to climate-change.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2018, 07:53:48 PM by Thomas Barlow »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #548 on: October 30, 2018, 05:40:02 PM »
Always interesting to look through those 5 day progressions from Aluminium and observe the areas where ice is developing swiftly and where it is not.

The Laptev is closing in but still we have an area that is still north of 80 ( at circa 80 N 140 E ) that has developed very little since ice minimum. Is this the same area where we have seen early opening/polynya before in the Spring ? Was there suspicion that this section of the Arctic is prone to warm upwewlling and difficult to freeze ?

The Laptev Bite?

I speculated several years ago that the Lomonosov Ridge might be causing upwelling of warm, salty Atlantic waters that could be contributing to the Laptev Bite. The minimum depth of the ocean above the ridge is less than 400 meters whereas the Eurasian basin reaches a maximum depth of 5400 meters.  Of course, I have no idea what I am talking about. And I mean this, I pulled that one right out of my ass.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2018, 05:54:20 PM by Shared Humanity »

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #549 on: October 30, 2018, 06:12:27 PM »
Always interesting to look through those 5 day progressions from Aluminium and observe the areas where ice is developing swiftly and where it is not.

The Laptev is closing in but still we have an area that is still north of 80 ( at circa 80 N 140 E ) that has developed very little since ice minimum. Is this the same area where we have seen early opening/polynya before in the Spring ? Was there suspicion that this section of the Arctic is prone to warm upwewlling and difficult to freeze ?

If you look at the post uniquorn has been making, on the Salinity incursions, it suggests that Atlanticifaction of the Svalbard - FJL - Severnaya Zemlya slope may have reached the most south west end of the Eurasian basin. The open water is over the deeper shallows and may be warmer Atlantic waters shoaling over the shelf extension of the Lomonosov Ridge