To continue the thoughts above, really the big question now on the horizon, after all isolated areas in the Arctic basin freeze over (Laptev very late indeed, ESS, most of Kara), is: What will the behavior be of those areas supported by external currents feeding in from the Atlantic and the Pacific - the Chukchi, Barents, CAB near Svalbard/FJL, and that unprotected part of Kara facing the Atlantic. I believe these areas which have sported open water for so long are well mixed and quite saline, so freezing could be strongly delayed.