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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #800 on: November 22, 2018, 03:22:12 AM »
Thanks BBR.
NATICE for today.  Is HB 75% covered?  I don't think so, but I don't have a pixel counter.
NOAA's NATICE
Big jump today! Maybe it'll get there tomorrow or the next day but doesn't look like 75% just yet. Alas!

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #801 on: November 22, 2018, 04:00:52 AM »
bbr as far as I can tell NATICE provides ice extent (the website itself cannot be entered due to a nagging security warning). So seeing it all in white does not mean "the Hudson refreeze should be mostly complete" by 11/15, or by any other date. The criterion should be area, IMHO.
Hudson refreeze is currently running about one week early than most recent years, as can easily be seen in almost any chart. Up until mid-November it followed in the footsteps of other years, and only recently it broke out. I don't think this behavior fits the level of confidence embedded in the extreme predictions you have been making since mid-October. Things are not so out of whack as you think. Weather is variable, this year is colder than usual in that region. It does not prove or disprove anything long-term.
Case in point, two years ago HB refreeze was two weeks later than usual, as can easily be seen in the same chart.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #802 on: November 22, 2018, 01:26:13 PM »
A closer look at the Atlantic ice front north west of FJL shows quite agressive melting over the last few days.
Worldview, bt15n, nov20-22.

I hadn't seen natice before. A comparison of natice with amsr2-uhh, nov21

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #803 on: November 22, 2018, 02:57:00 PM »
Based on these two images, there is no question that NATICE provides a more optimistic visual for the health of the ice. SIA is the way to go if we are to accurately assess when HB is 75% covered.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #804 on: November 22, 2018, 04:15:49 PM »
amsr2-uhh hasn't picked up thin ice in the Davis Strait though.  https://tinyurl.com/ydf7b4er

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #805 on: November 23, 2018, 12:51:22 AM »
Persistent winds from between north and east, have shaved 3 C off the Chukchi SSTs in the past three weeks. The Bering has dropped a little more slowly ~ 2 C.


uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #806 on: November 23, 2018, 05:04:46 PM »
Persistent winds from between north and east, have shaved 3 C off the Chukchi SSTs in the past three weeks. The Bering has dropped a little more slowly ~ 2 C.
Yes, the arrival of second year ice from the Beaufort should help it freeze over (hopefully not just melt. edit: iirc quite a few MYI floes met their end in the Chukchi around this time last year. edit2:no, it was april this year)
jaxa rgb, oct1-nov22, every 2days (to reduce file size 3.7MB)

ESRL is forecasting Chukchi largely frozen in 7 days.
(Dryland's ESRL data - https://floe.keytwist.net/esrl-daily-forecasts/2018-11-22 )

edit: Not looking too promising at the moment but things have been changing very quickly recently.
amsr2-uhh large, chukchi, nov14-22
« Last Edit: November 23, 2018, 11:14:38 PM by uniquorn »

Archimid

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #807 on: November 23, 2018, 06:52:50 PM »
Quote
ESRL is forecasting Chukchi largely frozen in 7 days.

Let's hope that forecast comes through.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #808 on: November 23, 2018, 06:57:46 PM »
...... the 2016-2018 sea ice extent gap ripped open further, now to almost 1.5 million square kilometers. Most of the sea ice gap ripping was due to the present High Arctic & Arctic atmospheric chilling, funneling from Canada. However, the extreme to-date 2016 anomalous heating also caused sea ice extent LOSS, contributing to the wild splaying 2016-2018 sea ice extent separation. Should be more 2016-2018 sea ice extent widening coming.
The last fews days have placed the first (& largest) to-date 2016 sea ice extent LOSS in this general time of sea ice extent gain, graphically in the past. 2018 sea ice extent gain is presently paralleling the 2016 sea ice extent gain, but 1.5+ million square kilometers greater. Present High Arctic temperature is somewhat lower than the same period 2016 High Arctic temperature, possibly helping to maintain the 2016-2018 Arctic sea ice gap.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #809 on: November 23, 2018, 07:50:24 PM »
Quote
ESRL is forecasting Chukchi largely frozen in 7 days.

Let's hope that forecast comes through.
Yes, though looking at sea ice area it's only CAFS forecasting that. GFS is much less optimistic.
edit: Sorry, I've just looked through the last week of forecasts (thanks Dryland) and they are all over-optimistic for Chukchi. Let's not get our hopes up too much.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2018, 08:07:49 PM by uniquorn »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #810 on: November 24, 2018, 07:35:29 AM »
November 18-23.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #811 on: November 24, 2018, 12:29:00 PM »
Quite choppy in the Chukchi. ECMWF WAM forecasting implying some freezing over the next 10 days.
windy, nov24-dec3
« Last Edit: November 24, 2018, 06:47:00 PM by uniquorn »

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #812 on: November 25, 2018, 11:55:55 AM »
Nice Suomi NPP image posted by Rick Thoman for 7am AK time on Nov 24, shows the recent cold temperatures (in F) on the north slope. Umiat down to -37.

The ice moving across the Chukchi, comprised of big lumps embedded in the thinner ice. Presume some of the older ice from the Beaufort is spreading across and breaking up. So a bit of a battle for maybe two weeks yet, if this weather pattern continues.

Edit: Just had a look at the ECMWF forecast for the next 10 days and it suggests a change as we enter December. The Arctic high slips away over to the Barents and depressions in the sea of Okhotsk drift northeast in through the Bering Strait bringing warm southerlies ahead of it over the Chukchi. Expect a stall in the freezing by then.   
« Last Edit: November 25, 2018, 01:25:27 PM by Niall Dollard »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #813 on: November 25, 2018, 03:52:21 PM »
A comparison of Chukchi ice extent from 2015-2018, nov1-24 using amsr2-uhh.
The main ice edge for each year from 2015-2017 has been extracted using edge detect in imagej, then splitting the colour channels to remove some of the concentration data, so it should be seen only as a rough comparison.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #814 on: November 25, 2018, 09:47:45 PM »
Very nicely done, Uniquorn.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #815 on: November 26, 2018, 01:43:03 PM »
Thicker ice rotating into open water.
jaxa rgb and worldview brightness temperature band15, nov20-25 (atlantic side)
« Last Edit: November 26, 2018, 02:40:24 PM by uniquorn »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #816 on: November 27, 2018, 06:42:53 AM »
November 21-26.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #817 on: November 27, 2018, 05:33:07 PM »
Thanks BBR.
NATICE for today.  Is HB 75% covered?  I don't think so, but I don't have a pixel counter.
NOAA's NATICE
Big jump today! Maybe it'll get there tomorrow or the next day but doesn't look like 75% just yet. Alas!
Alas, indeed.

Warmth did reach the southern half of Hudson Bay - above zero.
Area gain has slowed somewhat.

Below freezing will return, but perhaps not that intense cold as before.


 
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #818 on: November 27, 2018, 06:43:05 PM »
Thanks BBR.
NATICE for today.  Is HB 75% covered?  I don't think so, but I don't have a pixel counter.
NOAA's NATICE
Big jump today! Maybe it'll get there tomorrow or the next day but doesn't look like 75% just yet. Alas!
Alas, indeed.

Warmth did reach the southern half of Hudson Bay - above zero.
Area gain has slowed somewhat.

Below freezing will return, but perhaps not that intense cold as before.
IDK about that, modeling has the tropospheric PV rotating back into HB by D7-8 or so... this frame is D10 but the progression is well underway before then.



00z EURO D8



So HB should wrap around then, and Baffin should regain momentum once more, as the high Arctic is left / remains in its worst-ever conditions. I anticipate a continuation of the "leveling" of gains and would bet 2018 falls back into the bottom three rankings by 1/1.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #819 on: November 27, 2018, 08:55:43 PM »
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #820 on: November 27, 2018, 09:19:42 PM »
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)

jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #821 on: November 28, 2018, 12:20:39 AM »
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)
Still way to far out.  There were lots of forecasts last fall that suggested all kinds of dire stuff - worse for ice creation than 2016 - but which moderated dramatically when we got closer to the 4 day window.  What you are seeing at day 8 is still so general and has such high probability of error that it has little utility beyond tweaking our curiosity.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #822 on: November 28, 2018, 01:10:51 AM »
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)
Still way to far out.  There were lots of forecasts last fall that suggested all kinds of dire stuff - worse for ice creation than 2016 - but which moderated dramatically when we got closer to the 4 day window.  What you are seeing at day 8 is still so general and has such high probability of error that it has little utility beyond tweaking our curiosity.
All ensembles are also in agreement. This is partially due to the recurving WPAC storm / typhoon which becomes a major low near AK. I think this leads to a higher probability forecast vs. normal. But if I am wrong, feel free to throw this in my face come D8 (I will post verification then, myself!).

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #823 on: November 28, 2018, 02:07:26 AM »

Warmth did reach the southern half of Hudson Bay - above zero.
Area gain has slowed somewhat.

Below freezing will return, but perhaps not that intense cold as before.

Only half of Hudson Bay is actually covered with ice? Where does the 75% come in?

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #824 on: November 28, 2018, 04:00:05 AM »
Finally, a marked departure of FDDs from 2016/2017. Hopefully this means volume is growing above or at least near average.

Regarding HB 75% by 11/15, the claim was baseless to begin with. Reality just took its time.

binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #825 on: November 28, 2018, 05:58:12 AM »
Well it seems that the first of my two predictions has come true - not only a stall, but an actual fall in extent in Hudson Bay, and only about 2/3 of Hudson Bay (according ot JAXA) or less than 1/5 (according to NSIDC) covered. When refreeze does kick in again it will be back to normal for the last 6 years.

So I award myself 1 point for this, but I'm willing to concede 1/3 of a point to the other guy for pointing out that "something" was happening in HB - even if he was way out on both the magnitude and the timing.

Now I'm waiting in nail-biting tension re. my second prediction (max 2019 to set a new minimax).
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jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #826 on: November 28, 2018, 06:51:36 AM »
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)
Still way to far out.  There were lots of forecasts last fall that suggested all kinds of dire stuff - worse for ice creation than 2016 - but which moderated dramatically when we got closer to the 4 day window.  What you are seeing at day 8 is still so general and has such high probability of error that it has little utility beyond tweaking our curiosity.
All ensembles are also in agreement. This is partially due to the recurving WPAC storm / typhoon which becomes a major low near AK. I think this leads to a higher probability forecast vs. normal. But if I am wrong, feel free to throw this in my face come D8 (I will post verification then, myself!).
What you are doing is effectively rolling dice.  Like in craps, you eventually might make your point, but the advantage remains with the house. Like in craps, the success of your predictions when they happen are overwhelmingly luck rather than skill.
This space for Rent.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #827 on: November 28, 2018, 08:19:18 AM »
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)
Still way to far out.  There were lots of forecasts last fall that suggested all kinds of dire stuff - worse for ice creation than 2016 - but which moderated dramatically when we got closer to the 4 day window.  What you are seeing at day 8 is still so general and has such high probability of error that it has little utility beyond tweaking our curiosity.
All ensembles are also in agreement. This is partially due to the recurving WPAC storm / typhoon which becomes a major low near AK. I think this leads to a higher probability forecast vs. normal. But if I am wrong, feel free to throw this in my face come D8 (I will post verification then, myself!).
What you are doing is effectively rolling dice.  Like in craps, you eventually might make your point, but the advantage remains with the house. Like in craps, the success of your predictions when they happen are overwhelmingly luck rather than skill.
So you don't believe in forecast models? OK.

Wherestheice

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #828 on: November 28, 2018, 08:36:37 AM »
There is - what is, and
there is - what may be.
Indeed, and then, there is - what may likely be.

GFS, CMC, EURO all show same thing.  ;)
Still way to far out.  There were lots of forecasts last fall that suggested all kinds of dire stuff - worse for ice creation than 2016 - but which moderated dramatically when we got closer to the 4 day window.  What you are seeing at day 8 is still so general and has such high probability of error that it has little utility beyond tweaking our curiosity.
All ensembles are also in agreement. This is partially due to the recurving WPAC storm / typhoon which becomes a major low near AK. I think this leads to a higher probability forecast vs. normal. But if I am wrong, feel free to throw this in my face come D8 (I will post verification then, myself!).
What you are doing is effectively rolling dice.  Like in craps, you eventually might make your point, but the advantage remains with the house. Like in craps, the success of your predictions when they happen are overwhelmingly luck rather than skill.
So you don't believe in forecast models? OK.

I believe it is the longer term models he doesn’t have faith in. Anything over 4 days. It is true. Weather is very unpredictable and with our current technology and understanding, anything beyond 4 or 5 days should be taken with a grain of salt. Considered, yes, but not taken very seriously
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binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #829 on: November 28, 2018, 11:07:59 AM »
Is it actually possible to believe in forecast models? I guess you could have various degrees of faith in them - I've just experimented on the Tropicaltidbits site, going back and forth between days and models to find something that shows what I like - but having seen how wildly different these images can be, from day to day and model to model, I must admit that my faith in the forecast models have taken some battering.

Anyway, look at all that wonderful heat anomaly in 4 days time, the Arcic is scorching and HB is positively balmy, at least judging from this lovely image. Of course, it's still going to be bloody cold up there, temps well below freezing and all that  ...
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colchonero

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #830 on: November 28, 2018, 12:02:45 PM »
Yeah, I agree forecasts can be very different from model to model, however that 4d out forecast (I looked at it) seems to be quite odd. Idk what model that is, (GEPS), but when you look at its' 500mb map it's more or less in line with others, but when you switch to 2m anomaly it doesn't make much sense for CAB, at least to me. There are 2 HP, 1 over CAB, another one over Greenland, no ridges and no strong southerlies. Isobars aren't tight either over CAB, so there is no big gradient.

But maybe I'm missing something. Either way, we're approaching double digits (100h-) so it is strange to see a model forecast that vastly differs (in temp anomaly, not 500mb) from ECMWF and GFS' forecasts.  Like I've said, Idk the model and I don't know how usual this is, it just attracted my attention.

GFS

ECMWF temp 850 (they don't provide 2m anomaly on this site, but 500mb and temp 850hPa are almost the same as GFS over CAB there is some disagreement elsewhere, but I'm not going to analyze whole N-Hemi ;))

« Last Edit: November 28, 2018, 12:11:33 PM by colchonero »

Klondike Kat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #831 on: November 28, 2018, 03:32:29 PM »
Yeah, those last two models are in general agreement, except for the CAB.  Whereas the first shows an extreme warm anomaly, the other shows very little (the areas of warm and cold anomaly almost cancel). 

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #832 on: November 28, 2018, 05:56:22 PM »
Forgive me for the long post, i know this thread is not the place for it but i think it might be helpful to put all the weather discussion into context.

Since WACC began in 1990 the overall heating of the northern hemisphere has been no less than shocking.

The cold in the continents is primarily in winter and overwhelmingly a Eurasian phenomena.


For source see: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/events/wg-meetings/2016/presentations/cvcwg/lsun.pdf

Given the shocking overall heating trend this means that the seasonal temperature swings are extraordinary. Is this causing a trend of late refreeze and the subsequent rapid spikes in freezing?

Zack is working on a new research paper right now, however he mentioned afterwards that he could create a plot(s) that would help us visualize the seasonal and spatial nature of the temperature trend in question.

With all the heat in our climate regime (especially the oceans) it's a bit ludicrous how deniers get all excited about how arctic blasts are indicative of some cooling trend in America, etc. All i can say is if you live by the cold of jet stream perturbations then you will die by the flip side of those same perturbations as the extra heat in the system comes back to whack you with a dose of reality. Macro thermodynamics will always have the final say.

In the same regard on a seasonal scale, any increase in snow accumulation serves to trap an inordinate amount of heat in the land, instead of letting it escape into space. There are profound near-term negative effects of this particularly as it relates to the permafrost and related positive GHG feedbacks as given in this recent excellent article:  https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-may-thaw-faster-than-expected/

Even though during the freezing season, the trapping of that heat may help to offset the overall climate warming trend, in the end doesn't it only serves to seal our doom (pun intended) because there is less days of the year for that heat to make it out to space, especially with all the extra carbon in the atmosphere?

Just like all the heat building in our oceans, the land heat building under the snow will make it's way to melting the ice - powerfully overriding any signal of seasonal temperature fluctuations or snow accumulation.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #833 on: November 28, 2018, 06:12:19 PM »
Forgive me for the long post, i know this thread is not the place for it but i think it might be helpful to put all the weather discussion into context.

Since WACC began in 1990 the overall heating of the northern hemisphere has been no less than shocking.

The cold in the continents is primarily in winter and overwhelmingly a Eurasian phenomena.


For source see: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/events/wg-meetings/2016/presentations/cvcwg/lsun.pdf

Given the shocking overall heating trend this means that the seasonal temperature swings are extraordinary. Is this causing a trend of late refreeze and the subsequent rapid spikes in freezing?

Zack is working on a new research paper right now, however he mentioned afterwards that he could create a plot(s) that would help us visualize the seasonal and spatial nature of the temperature trend in question.

With all the heat in our climate regime (especially the oceans) it's a bit ludicrous how deniers get all excited about how arctic blasts are indicative of some cooling trend in America, etc. All i can say is if you live by the cold of jet stream perturbations then you will die by the flip side of those same perturbations as the extra heat in the system comes back to whack you with a dose of reality. Macro thermodynamics will always have the final say.

In the same regard on a seasonal scale, any increase in snow accumulation serves to trap an inordinate amount of heat in the land, instead of letting it escape into space. There are profound near-term negative effects of this particularly as it relates to the permafrost and related positive GHG feedbacks as given in this recent excellent article:  https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-may-thaw-faster-than-expected/

Even though during the freezing season, the trapping of that heat may help to offset the overall climate warming trend, in the end doesn't it only serves to seal our doom (pun intended) because there is less days of the year for that heat to make it out to space, especially with all the extra carbon in the atmosphere?

Just like all the heat building in our oceans, the land heat building under the snow will make it's way to melting the ice - powerfully overriding any signal of seasonal temperature fluctuations or snow accumulation.
"the land heat building under the snow"... outside of melting permafrost, you know this isn't a thing, right? Oceans accumulate heat, land does not, otherwise the tropics would always scorch.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #834 on: November 28, 2018, 06:48:06 PM »
How about this article?

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate
change in Canada

[authors listed]; published 21 January 2011.
Quote
[1] Trends in soil temperature are important, but rarely reported, indicators of climate
change. On the basis of the soil temperature data from 30 climate stations across
Canada during 1958–2008, trends in soil temperatures at 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 150 cm
depths were analyzed, together with atmospheric variables, such as air temperature,
precipitation, and depth of snow on the ground, observed at the same locations. There was
a significant positive trend with soil temperatures in spring and summer means, but not
for the winter and annual means. A positive trend with time in soil temperature was
detected at about two‐thirds of the stations at all depths below 5 cm. A warming trend of
0.26–0.30°C/decade was consistently detected in spring (March–April–May) at all depths
between 1958 and 2008. The warming trend in soil temperatures was associated with
trends in air temperatures and snow cover depth over the same period. A significant
decreasing trend in snow cover depth in winter and spring was associated with increasing
air temperatures. The combined effects of the higher air temperature and reduced snow
depth probably resulted in an enhanced increasing trend in spring soil temperatures, but no
significant trends in winter soil temperatures. The thermal insulation by snow cover
appeared to play an important role in the response of soil temperatures to climate change
and must be accounted for in projecting future soil‐related impacts of climate change.

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #835 on: November 28, 2018, 07:02:59 PM »
"the land heat building under the snow"... outside of melting permafrost, you know this isn't a thing, right? Oceans accumulate heat, land does not, otherwise the tropics would always scorch.
I never said it was accumulating heat, i said it was not allowing the heat to escape into space - hence increase net enthalpy.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #836 on: November 28, 2018, 07:13:55 PM »
How about this article?
Thanks Tor. The scientists in the more recent article i posted above point to a stronger relationship between snow cover and winter soil temps:

Quote
But in a region where temperatures can dip to 40 degrees below zero Fahrenheit, the Zimovs say unusually high snowfall this year worked like a blanket, trapping excess heat in the ground. They found sections 30 inches deep—soils that typically freeze before Christmas—that had stayed damp and mushy all winter. For the first time in memory, ground that insulates deep Arctic permafrost simply did not freeze in winter.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-may-thaw-faster-than-expected/
« Last Edit: November 28, 2018, 07:34:27 PM by Ice Shieldz »

magnamentis

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #837 on: November 28, 2018, 08:20:51 PM »
What you are doing is effectively rolling dice.  Like in craps, ....

only that it's much easier to look the other way hence craps is much less annoying, this is not happening due to convictions but either a profiling neurosis or the urge to go against for the sake "to speak against" as a principle, exactly like the donald. may be it's him ;) being bored of twitter.

at the end it's like if someone is permanently late, the kind of excuse does not matter anymore and is not interesting to hear anymore, not as long as all other make it to be on time.

in this context it means that if BBR makes a prediction, independent on the facts, it's least likely to become  true. this is an anti "bias" so to say, or pre-justice, but totally understandable.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #838 on: November 28, 2018, 08:23:17 PM »
How about this article?

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate
change in Canada

[authors listed]; published 21 January 2011.
Quote
[1] Trends in soil temperature are important, but rarely reported, indicators of climate
change. On the basis of the soil temperature data from 30 climate stations across
Canada during 1958–2008, trends in soil temperatures at 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 150 cm
depths were analyzed, together with atmospheric variables, such as air temperature,
precipitation, and depth of snow on the ground, observed at the same locations. There was
a significant positive trend with soil temperatures in spring and summer means, but not
for the winter and annual means. A positive trend with time in soil temperature was
detected at about two‐thirds of the stations at all depths below 5 cm. A warming trend of
0.26–0.30°C/decade was consistently detected in spring (March–April–May) at all depths
between 1958 and 2008. The warming trend in soil temperatures was associated with
trends in air temperatures and snow cover depth over the same period. A significant
decreasing trend in snow cover depth in winter and spring was associated with increasing
air temperatures. The combined effects of the higher air temperature and reduced snow
depth probably resulted in an enhanced increasing trend in spring soil temperatures, but no
significant trends in winter soil temperatures. The thermal insulation by snow cover
appeared to play an important role in the response of soil temperatures to climate change
and must be accounted for in projecting future soil‐related impacts of climate change.

There was
a significant positive trend with soil temperatures in spring and summer means, but not
for the winter and annual means.


So soil temps can be somewhat important for a short timespan but they do not accumulate heat year over year unless permafrost is melting.

Also: magnamentis, idk what your bones to pick with me are, but if you don't believe in forecast models, all of which (and their ensembles) now show severe cold once again in NCanada, IDK what to tell you. You are the ignoramus in this instance.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #839 on: November 28, 2018, 08:23:26 PM »
IS,
I remember (from about 1995) articles about municipal water pipes bursting 'everywhere' because there was no snow cover (deep into that winter - a first ever experience in the area) to prevent heat loss.  This was in the Adirondack Mountains and the pipes had been buried six feet down, I recall.  Water main replacement was a massive undertaking!

About 1970, we had a deep freeze in northern New Mexico (-32ºF [-35.5ºC] at its extreme).  We had six or so inches (150 mm) of snow on the ground and our fruit trees all survived.  50 miles away in Santa Fe, with no snow on the ground, they lost a lot of orchards.

Yes, snow is quite the insulator.  I hadn't thought about the 'preservation of heat' in the 'not lose it to space' sense before, though.  So thanks!
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #840 on: November 28, 2018, 08:26:09 PM »
Basically there is an extra layer of insulation for the heat to conduct through before it can be lost via IR to space.

Hmm - interesting. BBR - the best way to think of this is that the surface of the snow is below 0°C, losing IR to space. The ground surface is at 0°C (snow is melting at the snow- ground interface) or colder, but it is warmer than the surface of the snow.  The rate of heat loss from the ground is dependent on the thermal conductivity of the insulating snow, it's depth, and the temperature differential. More snow, less heat conducted and lost to space, more bad news for the planet.

The summer heat starts conducting down into the ground and then you get a snow fall (after insolation can no longer melt it), the heat starts to conduct both up and down from where it has reached. The snow in the winter traps the heat from insolation, but doesn't really prevent insolation. It melts very quickly in spring.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #841 on: November 28, 2018, 08:27:47 PM »
Basically there is an extra layer of insulation for the heat to conduct through before it can be lost via IR to space.

Hmm - interesting. BBR - the best way to think of this is that the surface of the snow is below 0°C, losing IR to space. The ground surface is at 0°C (snow is melting at the snow- ground interface) or colder, but it is warmer than the surface of the snow.  The rate of heat loss from the ground is dependent on the thermal conductivity of the insulating snow, it's depth, and the temperature differential. More snow, less heat conducted and lost to space, more bad news for the planet.

The summer heat starts conducting down into the ground and then you get a snow fall (after insolation can no longer melt it), the heat starts to conduct both up and down from where it has reached. The snow in the winter traps the heat from insolation, but doesn't really prevent insolation. It melts very quickly in spring.
So the Earth is on fire already? What are you people saying? If the ground accumulates heat so readily (contrary to what the quoted paper explicitly states re: annual basis) why aren't we already like Venus? Sweet Jesus....

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #842 on: November 28, 2018, 08:32:28 PM »
bbr, instead of thinking of your extra snow as heralding the next glaciation ::)  Think of it as concentrated CO2 that's seasonally trapping heat in the land - like how C02 traps heat in the air. The heat that's trapped in the land will make its way out after enough snow melts however less of that heat (how much less?) will go out to space. And yes some of that heat will help add to the longer-lasting battery known as our oceans.

Viewing your extra snow as C02 is ironic because it's also causing an accelerated release of GHGs via melting permafrost. The net result of all this judging by the vast majority of observations, clear thinking and science -> We are climatically accelerating in the opposite direction of a glaciation.

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #843 on: November 28, 2018, 08:37:17 PM »
bbr, instead of thinking of your extra snow as heralding the next glaciation ::)  Think of it as concentrated CO2 that's seasonally trapping heat in the land - like how C02 traps heat in the air. The heat that's trapped in the land will make its way out after enough snow melts however less of that heat (how much less?) will go out to space. And yes some of that heat will help add to the longer-lasting battery known as our oceans.

Viewing your extra snow as C02 is ironic because it's also causing an accelerated release of GHGs via melting permafrost. The net result of all this judging by the vast majority of observations, clear thinking and science -> We are climatically accelerating in the opposite direction of a glaciation.
OK, so you are telling me that Greenland is actually emitting heat. Thanks. You are super smart! That must also be why Greenland had the strongest mass balance gain since 1972 this year.

Is Antarctica also emitting heat? What happens when it snows there? LOL

The level of delusion on this forum is insane. I am taking a break from this thread because answering these stupid replies is itself stupid. Enjoy wallowing in whatever it is you are wallowing in.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #844 on: November 28, 2018, 08:39:37 PM »
....Think of it as concentrated CO2 that's seasonally trapping heat in the land - like how C02 traps heat in the air......

I like that analogy. I bet if you had, say, 10 m of snow, the ground wouldn't drop below freezing at all. This looks like fun to model.

Also - yes the earth is hot. that's why it convects :)... but the heatflow is measured in mWatts per square meter. Not really enough to melt but a few mm of ice per year.

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #845 on: November 28, 2018, 08:41:24 PM »
bbr, instead of thinking of your extra snow as heralding the next glaciation ::)  Think of it as concentrated CO2 that's seasonally trapping heat in the land - like how C02 traps heat in the air. The heat that's trapped in the land will make its way out after enough snow melts however less of that heat (how much less?) will go out to space. And yes some of that heat will help add to the longer-lasting battery known as our oceans.

Viewing your extra snow as C02 is ironic because it's also causing an accelerated release of GHGs via melting permafrost. The net result of all this judging by the vast majority of observations, clear thinking and science -> We are climatically accelerating in the opposite direction of a glaciation.
OK, so you are telling me that Greenland is actually emitting heat. Thanks. You are super smart! That must also be why Greenland had the strongest mass balance gain since 1972 this year.

Is Antarctica also emitting heat? What happens when it snows there? LOL

The level of delusion on this forum is insane. I am taking a break from this thread because answering these stupid replies is itself stupid. Enjoy wallowing in whatever it is you are wallowing in.

The earth emits heat everywhere. Space is much colder than the earth; -269°C iirc. That's how we lose the heat energy from insolation. Just because 0°C seems cold to you doesn't mean its cold to the universe!

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #846 on: November 28, 2018, 09:28:08 PM »
"Greenland had the strongest mass balance gain since 1972"
Perhaps you mean "surface mass gain"?  That's quite different, since it ignores the substantial loss through calving.  Net, Greenland is losing significant mass.

And I'm sorry for continuing a somewhat off-topic.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #847 on: November 28, 2018, 09:41:31 PM »
BBR may not be reading this now, but another story:  this time, burning hot ground.

I was on Bondi Beach (Sydney, Australia) one very hot summer day (Christmas, +/- a day or two) in 1972.  I was on the beach because a shark had been spotted and we were not allowed to even have our toes on wet sand.  The dry sand was so hot I had to dig a few inches down so that I could stand and not burn my feet.  (Most people had flip-flops that insulated them from the hot sand.)  After a few minutes, I had to dig down again.  (After a half-hour we gave up and opened the one-use-per-payment storage locker to fetch clothes and shoes and did something else.)

Unlike snow, sand is not a good insulator, so after the sun goes down, much of the accumulated heat will quickly radiate into the air (and, ultimately, space). 

As the article I referenced indicated, they did not identify an annual soil temperature drift; I suspect, however, over a longer period of time, they will identify a long term warming trend.  With Global Warming, permafrost soils will warm to be seasonally ice-free (i.e., will warm - as BBR admits); seasonally frozen soils will freeze less deeply; other soils will get slightly less cold in the winter.
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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #848 on: November 28, 2018, 09:55:48 PM »
The permafrost in question is not soil, more ice/water than anything else. the specific heat of water is very high, it takes a lot of energy to raise it's temperature. It can accumulate energy almost to the degree the sea can and hardly warm up at all.

Ice Shieldz

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #849 on: November 28, 2018, 10:21:19 PM »
My last post on this.

The permafrost in question is not soil, more ice/water than anything else. the specific heat of water is very high, it takes a lot of energy to raise it's temperature. It can accumulate energy almost to the degree the sea can and hardly warm up at all.
Thanks! Interesting that you post this because i was going to ask Rox about his heat flow estimates relative to moist soil and liquified permafrost.

Well it seems that the reason why our man bbr thinks glaciers are going to grow is because he isn't looking at actual data and he doesn't understand basic climatic thermodynamics. Perhaps most importantly, he is unwilling to admit it, to admit that he doesn't have any actual data to back up his claim, and that he doesn't understand basic thermodynamics.

Rather he strives to distract from his ignorance with ad hominem attacks, meaningless semantics and stereotyping. I can respect why Neven allows him to stay here for the purpose of dispelling the lack of reason that has infected public discourse around the solid science of climate change. bbr provides compost that we can grow something of value from and actually, god forbid, enlighten the populace.  But after a while too much compost begins to rot things and smell like what it is – BS. Too much is at stake to let climate deceivers sow doubt and distract us from the most important crisis of our time.