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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #950 on: December 20, 2018, 07:57:13 AM »
December 12-19.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #951 on: December 20, 2018, 11:58:48 AM »
Large floes meet the warm current and warm(ish) winds on the ice edge north east of Svalbard, dec18-20 (19th cloudy) The large floe in the centre right on the 18th is was ~20km top to bottom.
Worldview, viirs, bt15n.
edit:  https://tinyurl.com/y7e7c47e
« Last Edit: December 20, 2018, 12:06:50 PM by uniquorn »

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #952 on: December 20, 2018, 07:19:40 PM »
Floes are disintegrating as they enter this warm water.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #953 on: December 23, 2018, 05:57:47 PM »
967hPa forecast for north west of SZ tomorrow. Ice on the western corner already looking quite weak.
Worldview, viirs, bt15day, dec23 and windy ecmwf pressure 0m dec23 forecast for dec24

SimonF92

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #954 on: December 24, 2018, 04:37:14 PM »
AMSR2 regional data anomalies for today's date
(2018- 2012->2018 mean)

I couldn't figure out a good way to normalise this to area-of-the-sea-of-interest so there is a bias in the size of the bars to some extent.

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #955 on: December 24, 2018, 04:48:09 PM »
AMSR2 regional data anomalies for today's date
(2018- 2012->2018 mean)

I couldn't figure out a good way to normalise this to area-of-the-sea-of-interest so there is a bias in the size of the bars to some extent.
Nice graph. I think the absolute anomaly in km2 is okay, I don't see it as biased.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #956 on: December 25, 2018, 08:31:41 AM »
December 17-24.

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #957 on: December 25, 2018, 09:12:12 AM »
Another retreat event in the Kara. No wonder extent gains are slow, despite relatively rapid gains in the Bering.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #958 on: December 25, 2018, 04:17:24 PM »
same old same old.
bon fete :)
« Last Edit: December 25, 2018, 05:04:33 PM by uniquorn »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #959 on: December 25, 2018, 11:44:23 PM »
Wind will push ice to Svalbard for the next 5 days.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #960 on: December 26, 2018, 10:31:29 PM »
AMSR2 image for 3rd December contrasted with present extent line (in orange).

The front has extended slowly south in the vicinity of Svalbard but it's tough going against the west Spitsbergen current.

Meanwhile the retreat in the Kara is around 200km long !

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #961 on: December 28, 2018, 11:22:40 PM »
Yes, the ice front may make it across to Svalbard over the next few days.

An animation of the Kara/Barents using uni hamburg amsr2, oct18-dec27, 7days/sec (~3MB)


Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #962 on: December 30, 2018, 08:59:42 AM »
December 22-29.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #963 on: December 30, 2018, 11:13:35 AM »
A 974hPa cyclone over the Kara tomorrow might spread the ice around a bit.
Wipneus regional sie, Kara, dec29.
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #964 on: December 31, 2018, 12:26:41 PM »
Ice on the Atlantic front reaches the Svalbard Islands.
Worldview, Atlantic ice front, viirs,bt15n, dec31 (click on image for full size)
Polarview, Svalbard, dec31

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #965 on: December 31, 2018, 01:34:31 PM »
Yes finally ice beginning to arrive at the north coast of Svalbard. Today's image from the Norwegian Met shows fingers of 1-4/10 ice reaching the north coast of Spitsbergen (the western island).

Although I wouldn't quite call it an end until I see the 9-10/10 ice arrive. The last time very close drift ice reached the north coast of Spitsbergen was July 2017. That's almost 18 months ice free.

The area to the east of Svalbard should really be all ice covered at this stage but is taking an interminably long time despite air temps being -10 C  to -12 C for the past while.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #966 on: December 31, 2018, 03:08:52 PM »
Agreed. The ice north and north east of Svalbard looks fragile. The wind is forecast to change jan2.
amsr2-uhh, atlantic front,dec24-31

binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #967 on: December 31, 2018, 04:21:33 PM »
Around Svalbard the winds have been more or less constant from the north for the last 10 days or so but that seems about to change, with the first warm gust of 2019 hitting on Wednesday. Whether it heralds a change, or is a one-off, I couldn't say.

The low-pressure areas coming up the Atlantic seem to have been deflecting towards the east before hitting Svalbard, but playin ravage in the Kara instead over the last weeks.

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #968 on: December 31, 2018, 07:09:19 PM »
Agreed. The ice north and north east of Svalbard looks fragile. The wind is forecast to change jan2.
amsr2-uhh, atlantic front,dec24-31

The ice may be drifting south but I think I see evidence of melt all along the edge from Franz Josef to Svalbard. You can see large ice flows on the leading edge breaking up and disintegrating. What are the SST's here?

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #969 on: January 01, 2019, 10:50:22 AM »
I think I see evidence of melt all along the edge from Franz Josef to Svalbard. You can see large ice flows on the leading edge breaking up and disintegrating. What are the SST's here?
There is a fairly thin line of Sea Surface Temperatures, between the island groups, that are warmer than normal, ~ 4(?) degC. I'm just looking at the Northern Hemisphere, so its not high resolution. 
« Last Edit: January 01, 2019, 10:56:01 AM by litesong »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #970 on: January 01, 2019, 12:56:51 PM »
SST's from the argo float are here
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg184302.html#msg184302
though it hasn't surfaced since dec14 (or batteries may be flat).
Agreed, evidence of melt as far as FJL. Worldview, viirsbt15n, dec23-jan1. (3MB)

On a brighter note, Bering sea is freezing.
amsr2-uhh, dec1-31. (1.4MB)


meddoc

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #971 on: January 01, 2019, 02:56:34 PM »
Happy (WACCy) New Year....

There's a major SSW- Event underway, gonna split the Polar Vortex into bits.

SimonF92

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #972 on: January 01, 2019, 04:14:34 PM »
Happy (WACCy) New Year....

There's a major SSW- Event underway, gonna split the Polar Vortex into bits.


We could use a bit of WACCy weather in Scotland at the moment. I have never seen such little early-season snow in 10+ years of winter climbing (there is none below 3500ft).

I'm actually hoping the split aims some of the cold air at us, though that's rarely the case.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #973 on: January 01, 2019, 08:30:38 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

meddoc

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #974 on: January 01, 2019, 08:48:14 PM »

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Thanks, but basic Knowledge of Thermodynamics & a good Geography Class on Hadley Cells & Atmospheric Circulation is enough to interpret where this is headed...
And it's not good.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #975 on: January 01, 2019, 08:52:02 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sterks

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #976 on: January 02, 2019, 05:56:00 PM »
There's a major SSW- Event underway

Judah Cohen's article on the topic:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

It's going to be a snowy January in the NH continents, in many areas of mid-high latitudes. Dec 2018 ended with average snow cover per Rutgers lab, expect a ramp up for the next month or so.

Anything to expect over the Arctic proper? Effects of past SSWs in Jan/Feb were very disappointing in any aspect apart from some spectacular cracks due to the ensuing anticyclone.

Edit: this anticyclone is predicted by ECMWF to appear at 1040s hPa early next week and linger at that level for three or four days, while it gets colder in Europe and North America
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 06:07:08 PM by Sterks »

meddoc

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #977 on: January 03, 2019, 12:21:30 PM »

It's going to be a snowy January in the NH continents, in many areas of mid-high latitudes. Dec 2018 ended with average snow cover per Rutgers lab, expect a ramp up for the next month or so.

Anything to expect over the Arctic proper? Effects of past SSWs in Jan/Feb were very disappointing in any aspect apart from some spectacular cracks due to the ensuing anticyclone.

Edit: this anticyclone is predicted by ECMWF to appear at 1040s hPa early next week and linger at that level for three or four days, while it gets colder in Europe and North America

I guess we need to be analyzing in 4D here.
This Cold leaving the Fridge now, will be very much missing in Spring/ Summer in the NH.
Last Season we had summer Temps from 8th April til first Week of November, with very little Precipitation. This Year's gonna be more of a Scorcher.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #978 on: January 04, 2019, 08:20:08 AM »
December 27 - January 3.

binntho

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #979 on: January 04, 2019, 10:05:19 AM »
December 27 - January 3.

It seems that the increases in the last few days are mostly on the Atlantic front, with the ice being pushed and dispersed by northerly winds.

This situation could change quite fast, but the forecasts are a bit hither and thither and difficult to interpret for an amateur. But if the winds do turn, the Atlantic front could be pushed back quite a distance, including in the Kara.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #980 on: January 04, 2019, 10:33:01 AM »
This wind driven advance may be overstretching the pack a little. Hopefully the refreeze will keep up.
Worldview, viirs, bt15,night, jan4.  https://tinyurl.com/y8kan8n5

edit: viirs has been available since sep17 so added jan4,2018 for comparison. More ice (extent) but probably thinner, particularly in the Lincoln sea (left). edit: Though Tealight has Lincoln Sea at 3m so perhaps not thinner.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2268.msg185737.html#msg185737

All of the peripheral seas also increased in extent yesterday.
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 12:13:16 PM by uniquorn »

johnm33

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #981 on: January 04, 2019, 01:30:12 PM »
With the new moon on sunday we may see Atlantic waters accelerated once again into Kara, north of Svalbard and across the Atlantic front, with the ice driven back [melted?] once more.

Feeltheburn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #982 on: January 06, 2019, 03:25:44 AM »

I guess we need to be analyzing in 4D here.
This Cold leaving the Fridge now, will be very much missing in Spring/ Summer in the NH.
Last Season we had summer Temps from 8th April til first Week of November, with very little Precipitation. This Year's gonna be more of a Scorcher.

What is that prediction based on? The Farmer's Almanac or Old Farmer's Almanac? :)
Feel The Burn!

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #983 on: January 06, 2019, 11:28:25 AM »
Kara Sea trying to freeze. Polarview jan6

Also a good view of the Bering Strait today on Worldview, viirs,bt15,night.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2019, 08:23:57 PM by uniquorn »

meddoc

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #984 on: January 06, 2019, 08:33:13 PM »

What is that prediction based on? The Farmer's Almanac or Old Farmer's Almanac? :)

It's not a Predicition, it's Common Sense.
Peer- reviewed by Neurology.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #985 on: January 07, 2019, 12:14:06 PM »
The warm current apparently still at work under the ice north of FJL.
Worldview,viirs,bt15n,jan5-7 see next post
« Last Edit: January 08, 2019, 01:52:59 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #986 on: January 08, 2019, 02:10:49 PM »
Less cloud today. worldview,viirs,bt15n, northFJL, jan7-8.

ascat, day325-007. (3.6MB)
Hopefully ice on the Pacific side will be less mobile now the Bering Strait is plugged. The Beaufort arc of older ice bifurcated at the Chukchi while there was open water. The atlantic ice front made it to Svalbard only to be pushed back, possibly temporarily. Fast moving, quite fragile ice in the Greenland Sea due for another pounding tomorrow and 957 949hPa cyclone gfs forecast for thursday before thicker ice from the CAA makes its way across in the next few days (see Tealight https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2268.msg185799.html#msg185799).

windy ecmwf forecast for jan10
hmmm. 11m waves, >90km/h wind forecast along the Greenland sea ice front on friday. Like Meddoc (sort of) says, maybe a large short term extent gain coming.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2019, 03:59:31 PM by uniquorn »

Sterks

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #987 on: January 08, 2019, 05:07:35 PM »
That's an amazing pressure gradient, the Fram will be subject to it. Assuming near 100 km/h and that the floes will pick a 25th of that speed, that is 100 km/day for the ice approx. Maybe I am erring on the high side, but will be interesting to observe.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #988 on: January 09, 2019, 12:47:19 AM »
The latest edition of Arctic Sea Ice News is out:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2019/01/new-year-lows-once-again/

Quote
Unfortunately, as a result of the partial government shutdown, we are unable to access the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) pages to retrieve information on atmospheric air temperatures and sea level pressure patterns. Instead, we turn to daily (2 meters above the surface) mean air temperatures north of 80 degrees North from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model. This analysis shows that air temperatures remained above the 1958 to 2002 average for all of December (Figure 2b)

Figure 2b courtesy of Zack Labe:


Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #989 on: January 09, 2019, 08:33:45 AM »
January 1-8.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #990 on: January 09, 2019, 08:49:23 AM »
Still very slow going around Svalbard. In fact the ice has been pushed back well north of Spitzbergen, again.

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #991 on: January 09, 2019, 09:45:05 AM »
Indeed, and I believe some of the push back is actually strong melt, as evidenced by movement of coarse features compared to the speed of retreat, especially on the last frame.
The Atlantic is fighting back.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #992 on: January 09, 2019, 12:05:01 PM »
The cyclone in the Greenland Sea -> Barents will probably drag a lot of ice (and cold air) back towards Svalbard.
edit:added wind and temp. Windy ecmwf jan9 forecast for jan11
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 12:40:16 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #993 on: January 09, 2019, 03:42:04 PM »
Indeed, and I believe some of the push back is actually strong melt, as evidenced by movement of coarse features compared to the speed of retreat, especially on the last frame.
The Atlantic is fighting back.
agreed. Polarview, svalbard, this morning. Sorry, not much ice in this image, mostly wind blown slush. https://www.polarview.aq/arctic for more images.

litesong

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #994 on: January 09, 2019, 03:52:24 PM »
As an anomalous cold front sweeps over the North Pole, the DMI temp, above the 80th parallel &  biased to the north, shows a strong drop, even with warm fronts also above the 80th parallel. Forecasts predict the cold front will move off the North Pole. We'll see if DMI temperatures will rise later.   

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #995 on: January 10, 2019, 07:19:57 AM »
957 949hPa cyclone gfs forecast for thursday
946 hPa right now.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #996 on: January 11, 2019, 12:10:27 PM »
Pretty sure that's not ice round Jan Mayen. Dense cloud perhaps. Some goodbye waves visible to the far left of the polarview image.
amsr2, east greenland, jan10
polarview, jan mayen, jan10
« Last Edit: January 11, 2019, 12:17:00 PM by uniquorn »

Neven

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #997 on: January 11, 2019, 03:02:44 PM »
Pretty sure that's not ice round Jan Mayen. Dense cloud perhaps. Some goodbye waves visible to the far left of the polarview image.

Or is it the Odden Ice Tongue? That would be pretty amazing. A blast from the past.
Compare, compare, compare

SimonF92

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #998 on: January 11, 2019, 10:26:14 PM »
 ???

Current and potentially sustained anomalously cool ocean surface conditions for the next few days in the Fram and southward.

Could this be a totally unexpected (brief) return of the Odden?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #999 on: January 11, 2019, 11:29:05 PM »
no