Next big chunk nearing the Fram Strait might block it. Or just shatter and do nothing.Who places the bets here?
I'll take a sportsman's bet on the big chunk at the entrance now. That it makes it down the strait.
and think about the one after that....
Laymans explanation: Some pressure differences often mentioned on this forum mean that water nearly always flows from Lincoln to Baffin. Water from 100m depth or more may always have been forced close to the surface at the entrance to the Nares but this year the ice is thinner and perhaps more importantly, younger. It behaves in the way shown in this and previous animations, which show it better than I can describe in words.
Temperature difference is over 34C between ice and ocean at surface, air temperatures reportedly -30C or less for weeks but the ice still breaks up. Conclusion is that a lot of probably -0.5C or warmer water is weakening the ice from below.
Yesterday big chunk was weakened at the front and lost its rear right end due to collisions.
Today it lost its rear left and its front right wing, but it is more streamlined for the journey ahead.
https://go.nasa.gov/2UukbqHedit: corrected Kelvin temperatures