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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1150 on: March 01, 2019, 01:19:17 AM »
Suomi NPP image of Bering and southern Chukchi, courtesy recent tweet from Rick Thoman.

Now where's that melt season thread ! Oops sorry Neven !

Neven

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1151 on: March 01, 2019, 10:49:56 AM »
Now where's that melt season thread ! Oops sorry Neven !

 :D

I'll open it myself if tomorrow if JAXA reports yet another drop.
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HapHazard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1152 on: March 01, 2019, 11:19:45 AM »
Now where's that melt season thread ! Oops sorry Neven !

 :D

I'll open it myself if tomorrow if JAXA reports yet another drop.

Would this be the earliest Melt Season Thread opening in recorded history?  ;D

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1153 on: March 01, 2019, 12:25:25 PM »
Now where's that melt season thread ! Oops sorry Neven !

 :D

I'll open it myself if tomorrow if JAXA reports yet another drop.

Would this be the earliest Melt Season Thread opening in recorded history?  ;D
NOPE. 2015 minimum was on 15th Feb but Lord M Vader opened the thread on Feb 12 even though no-one expected such an early maximum.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2019, 12:31:20 PM by gerontocrat »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1154 on: March 01, 2019, 12:37:50 PM »
Suomi NPP image of Bering and southern Chukchi

I'm already idly speculating about whether the max is in already:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/the-2019-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1155 on: March 01, 2019, 12:42:28 PM »
I'll open it myself if tomorrow if JAXA reports yet another drop.

A bit like this you mean?
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1156 on: March 01, 2019, 12:46:33 PM »
ascat and amsr2-uhh sep17-feb28.

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1157 on: March 01, 2019, 01:31:26 PM »
Would this be the earliest Melt Season Thread opening in recorded history?  ;D
The 2017 melting season

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1158 on: March 01, 2019, 02:45:20 PM »
Would this be the earliest Melt Season Thread opening in recorded history?

No! However please see:

   
The 2019 Melting Season

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be cause

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1159 on: March 01, 2019, 03:02:16 PM »
Thanks Unicorn .. the satellite imagery brilliantly distinguishes old ice from new .. and just how much it has shrunk in area over winter . While heading to oblivion in the N. Atlantic it is also hogging the coldest part of the Arctic this year while new ice is being exposed to much warmer temps. This does not bode well for the summer . Based on this post alone I would predict a suprisingly low area/volume later this year ..
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2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Iain

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1160 on: March 01, 2019, 03:16:04 PM »
I’m not calling the maximum, I’ll leave that to a more frequent poster, only that I think it is more likely than not the max is already past.

Because:

Mar 1st is the long term 1981 to 2010 peak
2019 would have to climb 0.113 M km2 to exceed the Feb 25th extent
DMI shows above average temperature for most of the arctic
The Climate re-analyser 3 day forecast shows above average temperature for most of the arctic, though not on the Atlantic periphery
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jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1161 on: March 02, 2019, 12:06:40 AM »
I’m not calling the maximum, I’ll leave that to a more frequent poster, only that I think it is more likely than not the max is already past.

Because:

Mar 1st is the long term 1981 to 2010 peak
2019 would have to climb 0.113 M km2 to exceed the Feb 25th extent
DMI shows above average temperature for most of the arctic
The Climate re-analyser 3 day forecast shows above average temperature for most of the arctic, though not on the Atlantic periphery
JAXA yesterday was 280K below the 2/22 max, with an average growth from now to max of 220K.

As other posters have suggested, I think we hit it.
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magnamentis

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1162 on: March 02, 2019, 12:34:17 AM »
I’m not calling the maximum, I’ll leave that to a more frequent poster, only that I think it is more likely than not the max is already past.

Because:

Mar 1st is the long term 1981 to 2010 peak
2019 would have to climb 0.113 M km2 to exceed the Feb 25th extent
DMI shows above average temperature for most of the arctic
The Climate re-analyser 3 day forecast shows above average temperature for most of the arctic, though not on the Atlantic periphery

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2533.msg190677.html#msg190677

Iain

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1163 on: March 02, 2019, 10:01:29 AM »
"If I have seen further than others, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants." Isaac Newton

Iain

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1164 on: March 02, 2019, 10:28:36 AM »
Meanwhile, there is still movement in the Nares straight at both ends. This time last year it was static at the Southern end on March 8th. Cloud obscured the view in the preceding days, so it may have blocked earlier.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

Oh, and my post count has  stuck on 34. Not bothered for myself but others may be affected.
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1165 on: March 02, 2019, 11:47:33 PM »
Meanwhile, there is still movement in the Nares straight at both ends. <snippage>
Iain, you might like to vote on the Nares new old ice poll, open till Mar5
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2592.0.html

Neven

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1166 on: March 03, 2019, 11:12:14 AM »
Here are the temperature graphs for February, hot off the press. Arctic as a whole north of 65N was 9th lowest on record. As for the quadrants, all of them were lower than last year, except for Canadian:
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1167 on: March 03, 2019, 11:14:11 AM »
This time last year it was static at the Southern end on March 8th. Cloud obscured the view in the preceding days, so it may have blocked earlier.


Here is animation of the southern arch formation March 1st to 4th 2018

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg157474.html#msg157474

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1168 on: March 04, 2019, 04:38:59 PM »
Mobile ice still struggling in the warm current north of FJL despite the cold air temperatures.
Worldview, viirsbt15n, feb12-mar4   https://go.nasa.gov/2IRqsvl
« Last Edit: March 04, 2019, 04:45:32 PM by uniquorn »

jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1169 on: March 05, 2019, 07:19:08 AM »
In a similar vein, extent may be increasing in the Barents as ice is blown into it, but when it looks like this, it isn't going to persist very long once the tip-over in insolation occurs.
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1170 on: March 05, 2019, 08:04:15 AM »
February 25 - March 4.

jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1171 on: March 05, 2019, 08:19:45 AM »
February 25 - March 4.
I find the early retreat in the Chukchi is more worrisome than what's happened in the Bering.
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SimonF92

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1172 on: March 05, 2019, 12:26:23 PM »
February 25 - March 4.

Sea ice off the coast of Bear island is probably a rare sight these days

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1173 on: March 05, 2019, 07:35:59 PM »
Seems to me for the next 5 days the only place there can really be a loss in ice extent is the Labrador region while growth in the Barents and later the Bering looks likely. I think I'll put my neck out and suggest we are still not at the maximun yet although it could be close.

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1174 on: March 05, 2019, 09:24:02 PM »
Otoh I may be wrong but I think Okhotsk Bering and Chukchi are all going to be negatively affected by the strong storm coming and it's going to be the end of the season

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1175 on: March 06, 2019, 12:17:20 AM »
It's almost as if the ice from Pacific has been shifted to the Atlantic.

It's taken 20 months but finally very close drift ice (red zone) has arrived across the north coast of Svalbard's western island of Spitzbergen.

Starting in July 2017 the warm West Spitzbergen current began to make considerable progress eastwards across the north of the island. Shortly after this chart on 2nd July 2017, open water appeared and has been ever present until recent days.

This must rank as one of the longest periods the north coast of the island has not seen very close drift ice.


Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1176 on: March 06, 2019, 06:31:18 AM »
Latest update on ice thickness for the Nenana ice classic shows that there has been a considerable thickening in the last few days. Thickness now stands at 32.5 inches.

The ice has doubled in thickness from Jan 16 reading and has gone from being record low for jan and feb to now 4th lowest of 1989 to 2019 series. It's been another strange winter in interior Alaska

https://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/ice.htm

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1177 on: March 06, 2019, 04:59:09 PM »
Otoh I may be wrong but I think Okhotsk Bering and Chukchi are all going to be negatively affected by the strong storm coming and it's going to be the end of the season

Something of a cross post from the Melting Season thread:

I'll have added add in Okhotsk in a bit now .

My eye is on the swell from that storm!
« Last Edit: March 06, 2019, 05:19:51 PM by Jim Hunt »
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1178 on: March 10, 2019, 11:08:13 AM »
amsr2, okhotsk, mar1-9. I hadn't noticed that warm spot in the middle before. Freezing is occuring some distance from the coast, probably due to upwelling as the fairly constant northerly winds have been cold. Or perhaps the freeze just struggles to keep up with the drift, see worldview https://go.nasa.gov/2J2dxab

added worldview, terra modis, feb10-mar10
I think this animation is typical of sea ice formation in rough seas, something we will probably see a lot more of next year freezing season on the eurasia side of the arctic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_ice#Formation
Quote
In rough water, fresh sea ice is formed by the cooling of the ocean as heat is lost into the atmosphere. The uppermost layer of the ocean is supercooled to slightly below the freezing point, at which time tiny ice platelets (frazil ice) form. With time, this process leads to a mushy surface layer, known as grease ice. Frazil ice formation may also be started by snowfall, rather than supercooling. Waves and wind then act to compress these ice particles into larger plates, of several meters in diameter, called pancake ice. These float on the ocean surface, and collide with one another, forming upturned edges. In time, the pancake ice plates may themselves be rafted over one another or frozen together into a more solid ice cover, known as consolidated pancake ice. Such ice has a very rough appearance on top and bottom.
Though I think frozen sea spray may also play a large part in the cooling process.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2019, 03:31:20 PM by uniquorn »

Iain

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1179 on: March 11, 2019, 04:00:12 PM »
Here's the throw,
Here's the play at the plate,
Holy cow.....
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uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1180 on: March 14, 2019, 02:29:41 PM »
Comparison of ascat with cs2smos merged sea ice thickness for mar10. (8bit colour for the animation)
Cryosat2 not impressed with the old ice near FJL/SZ.

Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1181 on: March 14, 2019, 03:16:30 PM »
Has anyone put together a graph that shows the years that had the lowest extent for winter and summer? ie. a summer may have a very low extent, but an ok winter extent, or a winter may have a very low extent, but a decently ok summer extent.
I'm interested in seeing a graph that takes summer and winter lowest extents and combines them to compare the years, and see what the trends are over the years and decades for that type of measure (regardless of what it does the rest of the year)
Thanks

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1182 on: March 14, 2019, 04:35:55 PM »
There's a nice volume chart here for the CAB https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2348.msg191848.html#msg191848

Worldview viirs brightness temperature of the thickest ice north of CAA, mar7-13.
They say 'the bigger the cracks, the thicker the ice'. https://go.nasa.gov/2JbQ3PV

Polarview images of the same CAA ice close to the coast in no particular order. https://www.polarview.aq/arctic

Tor Bejnar

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Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1184 on: March 14, 2019, 05:08:28 PM »
Pretty much every observation and model point to the same thing. The only ice too thick to melt without export is on the canadian side of the north pole. And all ice looks mobile enough to export. If the next 6 months are conducive to melt, 2030 will arrive over a decade early.
big time oops

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1185 on: March 14, 2019, 06:33:45 PM »
And yet another way of looking at NSIDC extent max & min over the years.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2019, 06:57:34 PM by gerontocrat »
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1186 on: March 15, 2019, 08:22:34 AM »
March 7-14.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1187 on: March 15, 2019, 02:06:50 PM »
On the more optimistic side, large floes are finally compacting into NE Svalbard. They have a few days before the wind changes to make an attempt at fast ice.

Worldview, viirsbt15n, atlantic front, mar7-15, ascat mar7-14 inset.

A tiny chip off the Nares polynya, bottom left (see https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2592.msg192004.html#msg192004)

mabarnes

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1188 on: March 15, 2019, 06:43:46 PM »
Thank you, Uniquorn, for the word "optimistic"...!

I'm a relative newbie, really fascinated by the depth of knowledge you "old hands" have, thoroughly appreciate the information and effort. 

However ... in general, I find myself wondering many, many, many times while reading (candidly, mostly comment posts, not the data posts) who's "ROOTING" for LESS ice...?  I mean, I'm lurking here out of concern.  I genuinely hope there's more ice, less warming, and at least some time to adjust and let the world adapt (can ya hear me, Beijing?)...! So thanks again. 

Maybe a survey is in order: 

Which would you prefer?
[ ] An unexpected feedback asserts itself to limit warming, so no BOE emerges.
[ ] Scenario 8.5 turns out to be conservative, and Orlando is now beachfront property

I know which I prefer, even if it would make my current worries "wasted" ... they're not, ya know.  You guys are doing yeoman's work here. 

End of /rant/.  Have a great weekend everyone.  8)

Sterks

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1189 on: March 15, 2019, 07:12:30 PM »
On the more optimistic side, large floes are finally compacting into NE Svalbard. They have a few days before the wind changes to make an attempt at fast ice.

Worldview, viirsbt15n, atlantic front, mar7-15, ascat mar7-14 inset.

A tiny chip off the Nares polynya, bottom left (see https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2592.msg192004.html#msg192004)
Not so optimistic imo. This is a lot of ice parking in Death Row, whether it is weeks or months the Atlantic currents will say.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1190 on: March 15, 2019, 07:34:47 PM »
On the more optimistic side, large floes are finally compacting into NE Svalbard. They have a few days before the wind changes to make an attempt at fast ice. <snippage>
Not so optimistic imo. This is a lot of ice parking in Death Row, whether it is weeks or months the Atlantic currents will say.
Agreed, all the ice there will melt next season, but some fast ice would encourage a small resistance, for a while, to the recent relentless surge towards the Atlantic. It is disappointing that the older ice further east hasn't connected with SZ. Weak ice in the Kara/Barents west of SZ will now, probably, allow warm surface currents earlier access to the Laptev.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1191 on: March 15, 2019, 08:22:45 PM »
Mercator 0m salinity, jan1-mar14, used here to show current and possible upwelling along the Alaskan coast from Chukchi to Beaufort.
Worldview viirsbt15n, mar10-14 confirming.
FOOW warm water coming back up to haunt us perhaps

edit: forgot salinity scale
« Last Edit: March 15, 2019, 09:17:01 PM by uniquorn »

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1192 on: March 15, 2019, 10:01:21 PM »
<snippage>
However ... in general, I find myself wondering many, many, many times while reading (candidly, mostly comment posts, not the data posts) who's "ROOTING" for LESS ice...?
<snippage>
Nothing like that.  To an individual I'm certain we would be delighted if climate change were proven to be a hoax by everything going back to status quo of the 19 century.

But you see, it won't.

So the hope is, (at least from my stand point) is for there to be a sudden, irrefutable, dramatic climate event that forces world leadership to act.  To that end, a more dramatic demise of the ice is desirable from my stand point.

So again, "rooting" is the wrong word.  "Hoping" for an event that galvanizes society would be correct.
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FishOutofWater

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1193 on: March 15, 2019, 10:44:17 PM »
The Arctic sea ice could all be gone this September and Trump would still be proclaiming immigration is the emergency. In fact, I think that the fear of climate change is one of the factors increasing nationalism and tribalism. I don't hope for shocking things to wake us up. I'm hoping that young people will impact the political process and get us on the track of fighting climate change.

The thin veneer of ice that extended the freezing season this year will soon begin to fade back and we will fixate on the melting ice and the weather again for another summer. The CFS, NMME and CANSIPS models are all predicting another warmer than normal May and June in the Arctic. We'll see. Maybe the ice will be saved again by July storms but the long term trend has not changed. The best we can do is to observe it accurately, do good science and report the information with as clearly and correctly as possible. Let's try to save the emotional involvement for our efforts to make political progress.

oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1194 on: March 16, 2019, 12:18:56 AM »
Well said FOOW.

bbr2314

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1195 on: March 16, 2019, 01:06:59 AM »
I'm beginning to worry that Canadian snowcover anomalies will be substantially less effective at preventing melt-out in parts of the adjacent Arctic this year. The forecast models show a heat cannon pointing towards the Beaufort that may wipe out most all of the cover in lower elevations of Western Canada. Quebec looks safe for now but this should also result in imminent losses in Bering and Beaufort.





I suspect that this springtime situation could yield to very substantial melt ponding across much of the Beaufort and maybe eventually the CAB as well.

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1196 on: March 16, 2019, 10:36:54 AM »
I guess the relatively high and still growing Extent Numbers are due to Dispersion & high Icepack Mobility.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1197 on: March 16, 2019, 10:45:11 AM »
Short lived optimism fades as the pack shears effortlessly on it's way.
Worldview, viirsbt15n, atlantic front, mar15-16 https://go.nasa.gov/2JgBFpF
cryosat, feb13-mar12 (without smos) inset 
http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html?big_thickness_image=1&thk_period=28&season=Autumn&year=2018
« Last Edit: March 16, 2019, 12:32:10 PM by uniquorn »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1198 on: March 16, 2019, 11:44:42 AM »
I guess the relatively high and still growing Extent Numbers

They're not "still growing"!

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg192038.html#msg192038

Quote
are due to Dispersion & high Icepack Mobility.

That seems likely to me.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1199 on: March 16, 2019, 03:18:49 PM »
A good view of our thickest ice today on worldview. https://go.nasa.gov/2Jiqwom
The animation shows viirsbt15n default, enhanced contrast and then enhanced local contrast. (3.5MB) click on the image to run