Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

Are poll predictions stupid?

Yes
1 (4.2%)
No
23 (95.8%)

Total Members Voted: 24

Voting closed: September 23, 2018, 10:37:18 PM

Author Topic: Poll predictions are stupid  (Read 790 times)

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Royalty
  • *****
  • Posts: 5804
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 205
  • Likes Given: 144
Poll predictions are stupid
« on: September 22, 2018, 10:37:18 PM »
Compare, compare, compare

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2068
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 76
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: Poll predictions are stupid
« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2018, 10:46:28 PM »
It's unanimous!
[Edit: well, it was.]
« Last Edit: September 23, 2018, 12:06:21 AM by Tor Bejnar »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

SteveMDFP

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1013
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 71
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Poll predictions are stupid
« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2018, 10:58:23 PM »
They're not stupid, they're just relatively unimportant.
I think making a prediction encourages people to think, which can only be a good thing.
Historically, ASIF collectively have exaggerated the expected pace of warming.
Being confronted with my own wrong guesses, repeatedly, has been a learning experience.

johnm33

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1006
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 38
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Poll predictions are stupid
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2018, 12:20:18 AM »
No. It's important that everyone makes their best guess, just to see how wrong/right they are especially if they give some details of their reasoning, if they can, but that's not important, what is, is that they put something on record that they can't deny later. Thus we grow.

RealityCheck

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 52
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Poll predictions are stupid
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2018, 02:05:27 AM »
No. Collecting data is valuable. Even if the data is subjective opinions from (relatively) interested/ informed people.  And if the polls from such people are consistently low, what does that mean? That we collectively see the writing on the wall: cryosphere melt is happening, sea level rise and climate impacts are being locked in, and the evidence is becoming increasingly stark? Let's face it, I think the low polls reflect a 'rabbit-in-the-headlights' fear that our world is changing very quickly; and we're relatively powerless on an individual level to force a change in course. And maybe we have a hope that a dramatic minimum or blue ocean event will trigger real policy change to offset the worst impacts. That would be great. But I fear not. I have striven to make meaningful positive impact; I am personally responsible for c. 45 MW of windfarms in Ireland. But I think humanity will defer urgent action until too late to avoid very harsh impacts globally. So, are polls useless? No. But perhaps not for the reasons that first come to mind.
Sic transit gloria mundi

magnamentis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1718
    • View Profile
    • Philosophy Ethics Numerology Mikrocirkulation Vaskular Therapie Gesundheit Blut Gesundheit Schmerzen Multiple Sklerose Diabetes Immunsystem Fibromyalgia Modular Mobile Computing iOS Software OSX Android Custom Rom Rooted
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 101
Re: Poll predictions are stupid
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2018, 02:24:48 AM »
IMO no because:

- it's part of the learning process to make proper use of available information including
. the side effect to find out what's not possible and in the best case why and look for appropriate
. input or provide ideas as to what more is needed and how to get to it.

- it's good to learn what went different and include it into future judgment to improve quality of
. discussions

http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

DavidR

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 689
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Poll predictions are stupid
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2018, 09:03:38 AM »
Also NO.
It encourages us to think about why we are making our predictions and documents our predictions so that we can address what we predicted and why. Thus learning more about our own thinking.

Of course the variation in August and September is so dependent on the weather that even the August predictions have a massive confidence range covering most of the available options. Virtually the only outcome that was improbable on August 1 was a new record, anything else was still possible.  Perhaps we should have a "What happened?" thread where we discuss why we feel our predictions were wrong.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Peter Ellis

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 594
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Poll predictions are stupid
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2018, 12:41:50 PM »
They're useful, but not for anything they tell us about the ice.  They're useful as a barometer for how "connected" this forum is with reality.

An interesting exercise - if technically feasible, which I assume it isn't - would be to have two versions of the results graph.  One where everybody's vote is weighted evenly, and one where the votes are voted by how prolific each poster is.

The first of these tells us whether the readership of the forum has any insight into what's actually going on.  The second tells us who's driving the forum content, and whether they're more or less barking mad than the rest of us :-)

RoxTheGeologist

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 289
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Poll predictions are stupid
« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2018, 07:04:02 PM »

Can I change my vote please? And can you make the bins overlap?

Pmt111500

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 19
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Poll predictions are stupid
« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2018, 05:32:09 AM »

Can I change my vote please? And can you make the bins overlap?
But that's the fun part?!?
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Ned W

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 562
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 103
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: Poll predictions are stupid
« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2018, 03:27:00 PM »
They're useful, but not for anything they tell us about the ice.  They're useful as a barometer for how "connected" this forum is with reality.
Ex.act.a.mundo.  The polls tell us about us, not about the ice.

Can I change my vote please? And can you make the bins overlap?

Will we have June, July, and August versions of this poll?  And perhaps there will be separate polls for "NSIDC polls are stupid" and "JAXA polls are stupid", so we can hedge our bets by posting one way in one, and the other way in the other.

iamlsd

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 17
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Poll predictions are stupid
« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2018, 10:55:01 AM »
I like the polls - great outlet for a serial lurker such as myself and they might even be accurate - look up "Wisdom of the crowd" or have a look at http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/4891962.htm