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Author Topic: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election  (Read 39796 times)

Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #650 on: November 07, 2018, 08:42:51 PM »
The Democrats did well in the House, winning 27 seats with several yet to be decided.
...

Per the attached image, as of 6am ET FiveThirtyEight forecasts that the Democrats will gain 34 House seats, which matches my minimum definition of a blue wave.

Yes, if everyone holds onto the seat in which they are currently leading.  However, that blue wave in the House met up with interference in the Senate, producing a cancellation.  In the House, the Dems gained 34 seats out of 435 elections, or 7.8%.  In the Senate, the Dems lost 3 out of 35 seats or 8.6%.  I would call it a small wave, just because the House flipped.  Interestingly, the House races characterized as tossups split fairly evenly, while the Senate broke for the GOP. 

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #651 on: November 07, 2018, 08:59:27 PM »
Somebody forgot to mention the flipping of Governorships as well as hundreds of STATE senate and house seats.

This is a MUCH bigger victory for the Dems, and is why Trump just fired Sessions.  Because Trump KNOWS he is guilty, and he knows that any public airing of Trump’s corruption would spell the end of Trump, just as it caused the end of Nixon.
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litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #652 on: November 08, 2018, 12:44:20 AM »
Early 2018 exit poll, 63% of new voters are voting for Democrats.
Most of my 2018 exit poll information was posted. Not posted was 16% of voters were voting for the first time in 2018, while only 10% of voters were new for the 2016 presidential election.

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #653 on: November 08, 2018, 04:00:00 AM »
Somebody forgot to mention the flipping of Governorships as well as hundreds of STATE senate and house seats.
Rachael Maddox just detailed how "don'T rump" meddled in specific state re-pubic-lick-un congressional primaries & has caused the loss of re-pubic-lick-un seats. In one case, not only was the Senatorial seat lost, but the "don'T rump" meddling has ALSO caused the loss of one of the House seats. It was a comedy of re-pubic-lick-un "don'T rump" incompetence.
Not only have congressional seats switched, BUT "in excess of?" 315 state seats have been switched to democrats. In some states, re-pubic-lick-un super-majorities have gone away, & a number of state re-pubic-lick-un majorities have switched to democrats..... despite 20+ years of re-pubic-lick-un gerrymandering. Several out-right racist & anti-health-care re-pubic-lick-un advocate candidates lost to democrats.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 05:38:43 PM by litesong »

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #654 on: November 08, 2018, 04:06:29 AM »
For the first time, 100 women will be in the House of Representatives..... a small number, but it is.... triple digits! Two yet unconfirmed races have two women each contending for the positions, meaning that at least 102 women WILL sit in the House. Previous female high numbers in the House were only 85. 
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 05:45:15 PM by litesong »

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #655 on: November 08, 2018, 04:17:45 AM »
Now that Sessions is fired & if muscle-bound Whitaker tries any suppression of the Mueller investigation, Robert Mueller will be able to testify before the democratic House of Representatives investigative body AND the beginnings of impeachment will begin..... long too late.

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #656 on: November 08, 2018, 04:22:35 AM »
Not one, but TWO (II) Native Tribe women have been elected to the House of Representatives. Alright!!! A Muslim female has also won a seat in the House. She said not only do immigrants get into the U.S., but they are sent to Congress, also.

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #657 on: November 08, 2018, 04:31:06 AM »
Lawrence O'Donnell said that "don'T rump" was incoherent at times in the White House "shoulder rubbing" with the News Media. At one point, "don'T rump" ordered a reporter's microphone taken away from him. Instead of the usual 6'7' goon tho, a "don'T rump" woman tried to take the mike away..... & failed. It was another failing of "don'T rump". 
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 05:48:43 PM by litesong »

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #658 on: November 08, 2018, 04:53:03 AM »
The tax returns of Nixon were secured & Nixon was found to be a "crook". The House will now have the power(?) to secure "don''T rump" tax returns. "don'T rump" is slipping on poo poo.... of his own making. 

<7 comments in a row, next time make it one long one, or I'm not approving any; N.>
« Last Edit: November 08, 2018, 09:15:12 AM by Neven »

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #659 on: November 08, 2018, 08:06:11 AM »
The Democrats did well in the House, winning 27 seats with several yet to be decided.
...

Per the attached image, as of 6am ET FiveThirtyEight forecasts that the Democrats will gain 34 House seats, which matches my minimum definition of a blue wave.


VERY minimum- most were saying 38-50. If it was a tie in the house (oops) Senate or no change it might have been fair to call a wave. It was a mini wave but still a win. Let's see what they do with it- although I have an idea- they now have power in the house after 8 long years and want revenge and add in Trump- they will do anything but be a constructive legislator.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2018, 03:09:28 PM by mostly_lurking »

Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #660 on: November 08, 2018, 01:12:09 PM »
After Trump held his delusional press conference yesterday afternoon where he claimed almost a “total victory” after losing the House to the Democrats and losing badly at the State level .... the Los Angeles Dodgers announced they would also have a press conference where they would discuss their “winning” of the World Series .... which they LOST 4 games to 1 ...... calling it “an almost perfect World Series”.

In other news ..... Orlando, Florida is announcing they have some of the best snow and best downhill skiing that can be found anywhere in the world ..... and Ireland is promoting that they have 300 days of sunshine a year. 😱

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #661 on: November 08, 2018, 01:29:38 PM »
The Democrats did well in the House, winning 27 seats with several yet to be decided.
...

Per the attached image, as of 6am ET FiveThirtyEight forecasts that the Democrats will gain 34 House seats, which matches my minimum definition of a blue wave.


VERY minimum- most were saying 38-50. If it was a tie in the house or no change it might have been fair to call a wave. It was a mini wave but still a win. Let's see what they do with it- although I have an idea- they now have power in the house after 8 long years and want revenge and add in Trump- they will do anything but be a constructive legislator.

Yes, I would call it a mini-wave.  Over the past 40 years, the average midterm loss for the party in the white house has been 21 House seats, so this exceeded the averages.  The Senate losses does put a damper on the situation.  Still, it was significant if for no other reason, the House flipped.  How the Dems react over the next two years may determine their future in 2020.

NevB

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #662 on: November 08, 2018, 01:53:06 PM »
Nice graphic.



There is much more detail here:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/07/us/politics/how-democrats-took-the-house.html

and a summary:

Quote
So how big was the blue wave?
Over all, 2018’s shift to the left was smaller than the one in 2006, the last time the Democrats flipped the House. And it was half the size of the most recent Republican wave in 2010 when districts shifted more than 19 points to the right.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #663 on: November 08, 2018, 05:30:43 PM »
Yes, if everyone holds onto the seat in which they are currently leading.  However, that blue wave in the House met up with interference in the Senate, producing a cancellation.  In the House, the Dems gained 34 seats out of 435 elections, or 7.8%.  In the Senate, the Dems lost 3 out of 35 seats or 8.6%.  I would call it a small wave, just because the House flipped.  Interestingly, the House races characterized as tossups split fairly evenly, while the Senate broke for the GOP.

Besides the fact that your percentages of 7.8% vs 8.6% is comparing apples to oranges, I note that the Democrat's winning margin in the popular vote is projected by the New York Times to be about 7 points is very similar to the Republican advantage in 2010, which was seen as a huge wave election.  Thus by GOP-logic the Democrat's 2018 House win was a 'huge wave' victory.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #664 on: November 08, 2018, 06:38:25 PM »
Yes, if everyone holds onto the seat in which they are currently leading.  However, that blue wave in the House met up with interference in the Senate, producing a cancellation.  In the House, the Dems gained 34 seats out of 435 elections, or 7.8%.  In the Senate, the Dems lost 3 out of 35 seats or 8.6%.  I would call it a small wave, just because the House flipped.  Interestingly, the House races characterized as tossups split fairly evenly, while the Senate broke for the GOP.

Besides the fact that your percentages of 7.8% vs 8.6% is comparing apples to oranges, I note that the Democrat's winning margin in the popular vote is projected by the New York Times to be about 7 points is very similar to the Republican advantage in 2010, which was seen as a huge wave election.  Thus by GOP-logic the Democrat's 2018 House win was a 'huge wave' victory.

Yes, the two chambers are really different fruits.  However, your comparison between yesterday and 2010 is even further off.  The GOP won 64 seats!  Than is about twice the what the Democrats won, and even more dramatic when you consider that the average gain in the midterms is 22 seats by the party out of power.  In the 2010, the GOP gained 6 Senate seats.
 The average gain in the Senate is 4 seats, so a loss of 3 is significant, and once again, cannot compare to 2010.  It was also the worst showing by the party out of power since 1934.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #665 on: November 08, 2018, 06:44:45 PM »
The GOP won 64 seats!

Your talking about seats assigned under a system rigged with voter suppression and gerrymandering, while I am talking about total votes; which better reflects the will of the people (which may rebuke Trump in 2020).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Buddy

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #666 on: November 09, 2018, 02:30:19 AM »
More and more seats keep slipping away from Donnie.  Arizona Senate race is still close ... but now the Democrat is ahead by about 9,000 votes.  And in Florida ... Republican Rick “Medicare Fraud” Scott is now only ahead by 15,000 votes.  I would give my right testicle for Rick Scott to lose in Florida.

I’m not holding my breath on Florida ..... BUT .... it would be fantastic if Nelson would be able to beat Rick Scott.

In the House .... there are about 11 seats still not decided, but Democrat’s are likely to win a majority of those.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #667 on: November 09, 2018, 02:52:43 AM »
The GOP won 64 seats!

Your talking about seats assigned under a system rigged with voter suppression and gerrymandering, while I am talking about total votes; which better reflects the will of the people (which may rebuke Trump in 2020).

Yet, the system has not changed over time.  If anything, there is less today than in the past.

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #668 on: November 09, 2018, 05:02:44 AM »
[Neven wrote:.....7 comments in a row, next time make it one long one, or I'm not approving any; N. [/quote]

litesong wrote: I posted as I saw the early exit polls appear on the TV. I thought my posts would be intermixed with others' election observations, like shuffling cards. Belatedly, I was surprised no one else was posting their own election observations. It is only because others weren't posting, that my posts were together.
I'm glad you thought my information marvelous enough to post. 

<Fair enough; N.>
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 10:42:46 AM by Neven »

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #669 on: November 09, 2018, 08:32:00 AM »
...snip

I’m not holding my breath on Florida ..... BUT .... it would be fantastic if Nelson would be able to beat Rick Scott.

In the House .... there are about 11 seats still not decided, but Democrat’s are likely to win a majority of those.

Florida,florida-  how come they can't get their election shit together after all these years- you would think that after Bush/Gore they would fix it...but no.

In the house there are now 9 and 7 are probably GOP- so that gives Dem's +12.

Klondike Kat

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #670 on: November 09, 2018, 01:44:11 PM »
...snip

I’m not holding my breath on Florida ..... BUT .... it would be fantastic if Nelson would be able to beat Rick Scott.

In the House .... there are about 11 seats still not decided, but Democrat’s are likely to win a majority of those.


Florida,florida-  how come they can't get their election shit together after all these years- you would think that after Bush/Gore they would fix it...but no.

In the house there are now 9 and 7 are probably GOP- so that gives Dem's +12.

Florida has a long, sordid history when it comes to elections.  The 2000 election was not even the most corrupt.  That distinction goes to the Miami mayoral race, which a judge threw out due to fraud.  When it comes to election fraud, Florida leads the way - and not in a good way.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #671 on: November 09, 2018, 07:06:16 PM »
'Always look on the bright side of life …':

Title: "Democrats could win 40 House seats, the most since Watergate"

https://www.axios.com/democrats-2018-midterm-elections-house-congress-20ad294d-c608-4f70-af89-97d683757ed0.html

Extract: "Democrats have won at least 33 seats, but they look poised to win closer to 40 — there are 13 races that are either not called or too close to call, and Democrats have a solid chance of winning seven of those.

Why it matters: We're officially in "blue wave" territory. Even if Democrats didn't win any additional House seats, they've already won the most number of seats since Watergate, when the party picked up 48 seats in 1974."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #672 on: November 10, 2018, 12:07:18 AM »
..snip

Let me remind posters here that last week Carl Bernstein (one of the heroes of Watergate) stated that: "I talked to people … in touch with the White House on Friday who believe that if the congressional midterms are very close and the Democrats were to win by five or seven seats, that Trump was already talking about how to throw legal challenges into the courts, sow confusion, declare a victory, actually, and say that the election's been illegitimate." So my ten seat margin of control of the House has meaning with regards to reigning in Trump's Machiavellian plans:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-2018-election-illegitimate-democrats-take-control-congress-carl-1181683

This sounds like a repeat of 2016. Look who declared the election not legitimate in the end. Hilarious. There is no doubt in my mind that if the Dem's do not win the house they WILL declare "problems" in the election once a again.

It looks like Carl knew exactly what he was talking about:

Title: "Trump, without evidence, accuses Florida Democrats of rigging elections"

https://www.axios.com/trump-midterms-2018-florida-election-andrew-gillum-recount-ac50bc6c-5f42-4a14-889f-9509581e6f64.html

Extract: "President Trump is accusing Florida Democrats of attempting to rig the Senate and Governor elections in favor of gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum and incumbent Senator Bill Nelson as the races inch closer to recounts.

Why it matters: Despite his claims, the president has presented no evidence that officials are attempting to rig the election in favor of Democratic candidates. Rick Scott, the Republican Senate candidate, is suing Broward County's supervisor of elections and accusing officials of withholding information on the number of outstanding ballots in the Senate race. Under state law, a recount is required when the winning margin is within .5% or less. Gillum is currently behind gubernatorial opponent Ron DeSantis by .47% and Nelson is behind Scott by .20% in the Senate race."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #673 on: November 10, 2018, 06:18:44 AM »
Florida is the Sodom and Gomorrah of the USA....
So Florida will go up in fire & brimstone like S&G. Will the rising ocean levels be able to put out the fires? Or will the rising seas be too late? 

vox_mundi

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #674 on: November 11, 2018, 08:00:14 AM »
Dana Rohrabacher, Putin’s favorite Congress member, just lost his House seat 
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2018/11/10/18071518/midterm-election-results-dana-rohrabacher-russia-putin

California Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, the most pro-Russia Republican in Congress for decades, just lost his seat to Democrat Harley Rouda.

Even Rohrabacher’s own party knows how close he is to Russia. “There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump,” Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy said in 2016. He later claimed it was a joke.

The loss is quite the fall from grace for the 15-term Congress member who was rumored at one point to be under consideration for the role of Trump’s secretary of state.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Neven

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #675 on: November 11, 2018, 09:43:33 AM »
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

mostly_lurking

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #676 on: November 11, 2018, 09:58:23 AM »
The comeback is funny but irrelevant to the question...

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #677 on: November 11, 2018, 06:07:10 PM »
On her Sunday Morning MSNBC program, Joy Reid praised Millenials for raising their voter participation from 17% to 31%. As stated elsewhere in this thread, exit polls indicated that new first-time voters increased their voter participation from 10% in the 2016 presidential elections to 16% in our 2018 elections. 63% of new voters, voted democratic.

litesong

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #678 on: November 12, 2018, 03:41:08 AM »
Dana Rohrabacher, Putin’s favorite Congress member, just lost his House seat 
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2018/11/10/18071518/midterm-election-results-dana-rohrabacher-russia-putin
 “There’s two people I think Putin pays: Rohrabacher and Trump,” Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy said in 2016. 
Over a year & a half ago, Rachael Maddow delineated how "don'T rump" white-washed russian billiionaire stealings. Suspect "don'T rump" has white-washed russian money, & simultaneously was bailed out of bankruptcy in the 1990's. There are reasons why "don'T rump" can only borrow from certain foreign banks. If the new democratic House gets hold of tax returns of "don'T rump", more details will fall out of the gunny sack of corruption. 

Neven

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #679 on: November 12, 2018, 09:29:20 PM »
To be continued here.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin