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Author Topic: Extinction Rebellion  (Read 21528 times)

TerryM

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #300 on: August 12, 2019, 08:37:27 AM »
^^
That's a positive development.
Children may not be the answer, but they can and will heckle the hell out of every adult within earshot when they believe they're on the side of the angels.
Terry

vox_mundi

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #301 on: August 12, 2019, 04:50:31 PM »
Channeling Hari Seldon ...

Want to Predict If Your Non-Violent Movement Will Succeed? Ask Isaac Newton
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-non-violent-movement-isaac-newton.html



When Isaac Newton first attempted to describe momentum in his 1687 work Principia, he hit upon an eloquent formula—an object's momentum is its mass times its velocity. Or P=MV.

Now, scientists from Brunel University London and Harvard University have demonstrated how the same formula can be used to help predict whether a non-violent political movement will be successful.

"As we've seen recently in Sudan and Algeria, you only need to mobilise a small number of people to effect sweeping political change," said Dr. Margherita Belgioioso, a lecturer in international relations and international security at Brunel.

"In both those instances, about one million people—only about 2.5% of the population—were mobilised for non-violent protests, and yet both were effective in driving leadership change. When you start looking into how these movements succeeded, you see that the important thing wasn't just how many people were mobilised, but how often. They may have been small in number, but they gathered often—they generated momentum.

"Of course, amassing 2.5% of the population isn't easy—that'd be 1.65 million people in the UK, or just over 8 million people in the U.S.."

Using SCAD—the Social Conflict in Africa Database—the researchers trawled through instances of protests, riots, strikes, and other forms of unrest in 47 African nations between 1990 and 2014 to determine what factors were key in driving 'irregular leadership exit.'

They determined that whilst getting large numbers of people of your side is important, it's a political movement's 'momentum' that determines its success.

"Newton's theory of momentum serves as a really useful metaphor—if we consider the number of people mobilised as the 'mass', and the frequency at which they gather as the 'velocity', we can start to quantify how much 'momentum' a given movement has," said Dr. Belgioioso, who published the research alongside her colleague Dr. Erica Chenoweth of Harvard University.

"By doing this, we've demonstrated a clear positive correlation between a movement's momentum and its probability of successfully overthrowing a country's leadership."

Having plotted historical non-violent movements on a chart, the researchers say that if you can attract 20% of the national population to 60 events help over the course a week, the probability of 'irregular leadership exit' theoretically reaches 100%.

Meanwhile, if you can mobilise 10% of the population, just 81 events per week will result in leadership change, whilst at 5% of the population, 121 events per week are required.


Interestingly, if you are only able to arrange 20 events per week, an increase in mass—the number of people involved—no longer has any effect on momentum.

Erica Chenoweth et al. The physics of dissent and the effects of movement momentum, Nature Human Behaviour (2019)

-----------------------------

Remember, this can work both ways - the Nuremberg Rallies (1933-38) - or Trump rallies

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #302 on: August 12, 2019, 07:35:55 PM »
I wonder where the ouster of Pres. Johnson would fall on that chart.


Hey Hey LBJ
How many kids have you burned today.
Was chanted in many venues over an extended period.


The problem was that it left a vacuum for Slick Dick to slide into.
Of course his presidency was also cut short.


After Kennedy it took a long time for the system to come back to some semblance of normalcy.
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #303 on: August 13, 2019, 12:24:52 AM »
I wonder where the ouster of Pres. Johnson would fall on that chart.


Hey Hey LBJ
How many kids have you burned today.
Was chanted in many venues over an extended period.


The problem was that it left a vacuum for Slick Dick to slide into.
Of course his presidency was also cut short.


After Kennedy it took a long time for the system to come back to some semblance of normalcy.
Terry

This is normalcy?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #304 on: August 14, 2019, 03:38:02 AM »
XR paints Brazilian Embassy red:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-climatechange-protests/london-climate-change-protesters-daub-brazilian-embassy-blood-red-idUSKCN1V30LC
Extinction Rebellion said the protest in London was timed to coincide with a march by indigenous women in Brasilia on Tuesday, and that similar actions were taking place at Brazilian embassies in Chile, Portugal, France, Switzerland and Spain.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #305 on: August 14, 2019, 05:11:49 PM »
Why Your Brain Can’t Process Climate Change
https://time.com/5651393/why-your-brain-cant-process-climate-change/

... When you think about yourself while inside the narrow metal tube of a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) machine, a certain part of your brain, called the medial prefrontal cortex, or MPFC, will light up like Times Square on New Year’s Eve. If you think about a family member, the MPFC will still light up, though less robustly. And if you think about other people whom you feel no connection to—like, say, the inhabitants of the South Asian island nation of the Maldives, which will likely one day be erased by climate-change-driven sea level rise—the MPFC will light up even less.

You don’t need a $3 million MRI machine to know that human beings are self-centered creatures. But as Jane McGonigal, the research director of the Institute for the Future, noted in a 2017 article for Slate, if you think about your own self, but in the future, you’ll see less activation in the MPFC than when you imagine your present self. The further out in time you imagine that self, the weaker that activation. As McGonigal writes: “Your brain acts as if your future self is someone you don’t know very well and, frankly, someone you don’t care about.” And if we view our own selves in the future as virtual strangers, how much less do we care about the lives of generations yet to be born?

Economists have a figure for this: the “social discount rate,” which quantifies how much value declines as we look into the future. The higher the discount rate, the less we value the future economically. The climate-change denying Trump administration, for instance, uses an annual discount rate of 7 percent for its analysis of the social cost of CO2 emissions—how much economic damage each ton of carbon dioxide is estimated to cause—which is significantly higher than what was employed by the Obama administration.

Discounting makes sense over relatively short time horizons, like when a business is deciding whether or not to take out a loan. But when we begin to look into the further future—future on the scale of climate change, many decades and even centuries from now—discounting can spit back results that seem confounding. The Oxford philosopher Derek Parfit wrote that “at a discount rate of five percent, one death next year counts for more than a billion deaths in 500 years.” To put that in monetary terms, with a 5 percent discount rate, it would only be worth spending about $2,200 today in order to prevent $87 trillion in damages—the size of the total world economy now—in 500 years. Make it 700 years and it would only be worth spending 13 cents today. That’s how much we discount the far future, and it’s one reason why we’ve been so reluctant to take serious action on climate change.

The problem is that, as the Yale futurist and sociologist Wendell Bell has written, “a present sacrifice for the welfare of the future appears to be a one-way street.” We experience the sacrifice in the here and now, and people we will never meet enjoy the benefit. So instead the present is essentially “colonizing the future,” in the words of the social philosopher Roman Krznaric, treating it “as a distant colonial outpost where we dump ecological degradation, nuclear waste, public debt and technological risk.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

petm

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #306 on: August 14, 2019, 05:44:48 PM »
I.e., People are selfish as*&^%s, so we're f*&^ed.

Yup.

On the bright side, it looks like we may be heading for a global recession soon, so at least that taps the brakes a little.

nanning

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #307 on: August 14, 2019, 06:27:48 PM »
"You don’t need a $3 million MRI machine to know that human beings are self-centered creatures."

Humans are not self-centered creatures. We are social group-animals. Look at the 12000bc-200000bc humans. What that article describes is what 'civilisation' culture does with perception; with what we in civilisation see as normal. An unseen bias.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly"

rboyd

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #308 on: August 16, 2019, 07:24:48 PM »
"You don’t need a $3 million MRI machine to know that human beings are self-centered creatures."

Humans are not self-centered creatures. We are social group-animals. Look at the 12000bc-200000bc humans. What that article describes is what 'civilisation' culture does with perception; with what we in civilisation see as normal. An unseen bias.

There is a lot of research that shows a high degree of altruism during natural disasters. The exceptions are where there is a massive difference between the rich and the poor and they live close together, then the former take the opportunity for a bit of "wealth redistribution".

TerryM

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #309 on: August 16, 2019, 11:34:47 PM »
I was once having an EEG recorded as the operator - a Scandinavian lass in a very tight skirt was crossing and uncrossing her very long legs.


I've wondered just how much her present had affected the squiggly lines. ::)
Terry

Neven

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #310 on: August 17, 2019, 12:23:28 AM »
Was it already squiggly back then?  ::)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

DrTskoul

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #311 on: August 17, 2019, 12:59:02 AM »
Was it already squiggly back then?  ::)

A flat one is usually a problem...

TerryM

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Re: Extinction Rebellion
« Reply #312 on: August 17, 2019, 02:16:53 PM »
Was it already squiggly back then?  ::)


Much squigglier than now. :(
Terry