Critical last stand strategic location considerations

[Eco-Author]

Faced with having to rebuild not only ALL coastal cities (under threat hardly just from sea level rise, but from toxic inland flooding runoff, toxic algae blooms, slow moving stalled out SUPER Storms and a tsunami threat not only far greater on its own that we've been told, but one that will dramatically increase as sea level rises and erodes the base of coastal mountains) but also the need to relocate EVERY SINGLE inland river bordering town and industrial center, we need to WISELY consider locations to rebuild our civilization from scratch in the safest possible locations available.

Here in lies a Frank and pressing discussion to address this need... Not only to survive the coming climatic onslaught but also all the regular natural disasters we also expect to increase with the shifting of the earth's mass from the poles.  Included in these considerations MUST also be surviving the collapse of modern civilization, the unrest and war likely to quickly follow, but ALSO a pressing need to be in an ideal location so that we can begin to CLEAN IT ALL BACK UP... recycling every bolt, nail, guard rail and scrap as our resources needed to then build all the CO2 extraction plants and filtration systems also designed to clean the air and water of contaminants.

Given the extreme flooding events of wild/out-of-control climate change, the unpredictable and [likely] vastly underestimated rates of sea-level rise, a soon to be RAGING/SUPER-HEATED ocean widely anticipated to generate wall-to-wall Cat 6-8 super-storms, red-tides, coastal dead zones, toxic inland flooding runoff, damn bursting, and the ever present danger of ocean-wide tsunamis--which climate change is widely expected to exacerbate--it should be considered HIGHLY negligent NOT to be calling for the complete abandonment of all coastal and river-bordering cities in the entire world!  Such a 90% Rebuild of every structure in the entire world--in a third the amount of time it would have had to be rebuilt ANYWAY due to poor construction--obviously needs to seek out FAR higher ground: not only above the maximum amount of sea-level rise anticipated from polar melt and further thermal-expansion, but also the maximum possible storm surges and the extremes of landslide-driven tsunamis on top of that.  Given the vital necessity to do this straight up, the next most important questions facing HUMANITY then becomes:

1) What will it really take in order for us to properly and fully cleanup/terraform a shattered/SUPER contaminated world: not just focusing on lowering the CO2 in the air and sea, but ALL types of radiological [1500 raging nuclear fires+], heavy metal, chemical and petroleum contamination [all oil tankers, rail cars, gas station tanks, pipelines, oil platforms and well-heads leak and blowout].  This Principle Question highlights one of the most fundamental aspects in the design process; when you set out to build something, you must first know what it must accomplish.  For a world that can barely cope with a single nuclear disaster, to suddenly be faced with thousands HIGHLIGHTS the need for MEGA industrial abilities literally HUNDREDS OF TIMES beyond what even modern society can achieve!  Simply put... to cross the incomprehensible deep and rocky chasm of our future will take an effort the equivalent of every stone, brick and every ounce of effort ever put forth since the dawn of man!

2) What are the best/most strategic and safest locations to RE-BUILD Society 3.0 so that it’s not only near all the resources it’s expected to need and the areas it needs to help recover the most, but also the SAFEST possible places as far away from any potential disasters it can find.

3) How best to build and tailor every structure and system of society to survive all conceivable chance disasters for as long as it takes to bring the world back into balance while exhibiting the necessary industrial might to complete the job.  Therefor, we will need to not only be able to survive the raging, radiated, super contaminated hothouse world of tomorrow, but need to dig in deep with every ounce of industrial might we can muster!  Such a task is also compounded by the fact that the world itself... Even without the ever-present dangers of these disasters, cannot continue to sustain a society built so shottilly that literally everything has to be rebuilt every hundred years.  Therefor, one can easily argue that we only get one more shot to do this right and whatever it is we build MUST be able to last TENS-OF-THOUSANDS OF YEARS, which has only just now become possible with Ultra-/Fiber-strengthened Concretes and non-rusting steels and composites!  With the need to build such excessive durability which takes time with a spread-out dispersal strategy of not putting all your eggs in one basket, what you then need to do is spread it out along a vital corridor that actually goes somewhere.  If you think about it--other than just city to city--the only necessary roads are roads going coast to coast so as to be able to take advantage of shipping.  Roads that go into major farming areas and to vital mining operation.  When you point blank build right up against the sides of these roads or rail lines, you end up securing them from things like sniper attack.

Strategic advantages of the high-plains of central and Western Canada
So far as I can see, the most favorable location away from nearly any threat of major disasters of any kind is in central Canada!  I'm generally favoring the use of the Hudson Bay or CAA areas as a likely MASS safe harbor for the world’s shipping to take refuge in and escape to.  Much like the ideal access the Arctic ocean has, CAA and Hudson provide good access to all the world’s oceans and--thus--all the coastal cities/reactors that will need our help.  Moving further inland, I’m seeing the locations just inside the Rocky Mountains--on the plateaus in central Canada in the Calgary, Edmonton areas and others--as pretty close to ideal as we are likely to get:

A) The FAR North would have calmer/cleaner/fresher water than any in the U.S.

B) Easy access to both main oceans, with Asia and all its resources only a short distance away just over the Arctic ocean by air.  Europe, Japan and America will require the most cleanup from burnt-out/flooded out nuclear reactors and through the Arctic we have direct, easy access to all of them.

C) No fault lines, volcanos, and well North of the Yellowstone Super volcano

D) It’s away from the equator’s most repressive heat, humidity or EXTREME monsoonal-like rains and inland-well away from ocean generated superstorms

E) Should offer some reprieve from extreme temps at least in winter

F) It is ideally located in the area requiring the most cleanup (the overly industrial and urbanized U.S. and Canadian North East.  From these sources--recovering and recycling every screw and nail--it can be the source of many if not most all materials we will needfor our own manufacturing needs

G) Is at the widest part of the continent... protected by mountains on the western side and would be well away even from the most northerly Atlantic super storms, yet also the shortest distance between both coasts.

H) Avoids ocean tsunamis whether they be from mountain collapse or asteroid impact.

I) Is more North and West of most all of the nuclear power plants or Strategic targets of a World War.  Extreme radiation will engulf the whole world but at least its not within the path of most of the fallout!

J) South central Canada is close to massive industries and existing infrastructure which will make it far easier to build such a massive and complex outpost than some remote island.

K) Offers gradually tapering off land and plateaus which can help ease industries access to the seas as the ocean rises and where plenty of safe ground exists for many people.

L) Conceivably possible to link both Asia and North America over the Bearing Straight which would facilitate shipping of resources thus a land route is possible, not just air and sea.

M) Dangers to be considered are permafrost melt... Space launches will be a bit harder from this northern latitude... Would help to be outside of any potential ozone holes... Since it is always the front between hot and cold weather fronts that generate the most extreme rainfall... we may find that rain bombs migrate further and further north???  Is to the west of the Hudson Bay which will likely be a consistent home of a low pressure zone forcing storms into Eastern Canada.

Locations to DEFINITELY Avoid
I’d be absolutely against any such last-stand facilities in places like New Zealand/Tazmania or even Australia!  Basically, any small island nation can be overrun by a single storm, would be cut off from sea and air travel because of the extreme waves and coastal winds, and doesn’t nearly have the same resources as found on entire continents... I feel that when all the ice is gone in the North, it will be a mad house in the Southern Hemisphere as all the heat barrels down to attack the world’s last remaining ice! Massive flooding and extreme winds are happening even today from a Southern jet that looks worse than the Northern Jetstream.  These areas are FAR away from resources, are not able to help or clean up the rest of the planet... And if you look at CO2 migration where even the Antarctic is only 10% what the northern hemisphere is, you can similarly deduce it would not escape the quick migration of extreme radiation... Especially when we have more North/South air flow and a crossing of the equator by the jet streams! These areas are too small, too remote for a final stand. The raging seas will make any shipping supplies impossible...

The North Sea and Baffin Bay will be the coldest places on earth from Greenland melt runoff... places where the extreme heat and cold frontal systems will form your most raging super storms!

<edit: Removed the ALL-CAPS from the title; N.>

[Eco-Author]

 ANY 'thin' location such as Japan, New Zealand, Great Britain, Italy and the tip of South America are inherently vulnerable as one event can sink the whole country from coast to coast. Not only is Central America part of the ring of fire with quakes and extremely powerful volcanos, we have Super Storms brewing in this new climate that will WASH AWAY, any coastal or river-bordering town or city! Algae blooms will one day engulf all of the Gulf of Mexico already with record large toxic dead zones and not only is Mexico off limited to any land travelers that wish to remain alive, Central America is home to the world's most ruthless gangs!

Along the lines of thinking 'Thin' locations are vulnerable to a single super storm, we also see that in such nations and New Zealand, that there are really only TWO North/South routes on the entire south island... with an expected 18,000 landslides during the next alpine fault rupture, we see that such a extraordinarly remote location can easily get itself cut off with no hopes of help from the outside world...

Remember too, that Airtravel in the times leading up to collapse will almost CERTAINLY be the first element of the modern world to go belly up... In other words... if you are HOPING to sail off to your remote hideaway by airtravel come the time of collapse, you are very unlikely to get to such locations most especially ones as far away from humanity as NZ/Austrailia and South America are...

[Eco-Author]

I also advise MOST Strongly against the idea that 'RUNNING AWAY' will get you ANYWHERE....  This meme reached 6500 views last week on fb and although a bit exaggerated lists out ALLL the threats you won't survive on your own.  Only a massed UNITED effort will work to truly face the dangers that we face!

So let me get this straight,

You plan to survive:
1) The RAGING Uncontrolled meltdown of 900 civil and military nuclear reactors
2) 1200 WASTE STORAGE COOLING POND FIRES
3) Any additional radiation WWIII mixes in during the collapse
4) Continued SUPERFUND contamination
5) The leakage or every Mercury, HAZMAT, Chemical, oil, gas Rail Car, Tank Farm, Tanker ship, gas tank, home, industrial site, and well-head.
6) 10,000,000 Strong wild dog packs
7) One million Strong wild bore packs
A HEAVILLY Armed/Frantic/panicking/Hungry population off their meds
9) WMD armed military and gang remnants
10) Record cold winter lows due to the flushing out of arctic tundra air south by a 'warm air invasion' of the North
11) No medical care where even the scrape of a rusty nail can kill you
12) Endlessly compounding diseases and pandemic outbreak common without sanitation and around death
13) Roads impassably entangled with downed lines and fallen trees
14) forests ravaged by 300 million people who can barely keep their BBQ going without burning down the forests.
15) Fully contaminated water supply

In a stick-built home w/ just you and your family?? If you do not unite within facilities ROBUST enough to handle the radiation, disasters, and gunfire with industrial abilities 100X that of today to clean it all back up, you will not see the year out!!

All the OTHER Stuff we need to worry about:

A San Andreas M8.2 earthquake is now geologically considered over a hundred years past due.

The U.S./Cascadia North West subduction-fault expected to generate a M9.4 and mega/ocean-wide tsunamis is considered likely “at any time.”

The central U.S. New Madrid fault system capable of back-to-back M8.0’s is geologically approaching its window of activity with less than 100 years to go...
A triple-junction fault exists under DOWNTOWN Tokyo where a M7.3-M8.0 is expected at any time and is a fault now known to be 10km shallower than the city was designed for.

A newly discovered LOCKED subduction fault right along the coast of the North Island of New Zealand is expected to generate an M8.2-8.4 quake and tsunami when it finally ruptures.

Istanbul, Turkey--a city of 20 million--is over the last remaining section of a fault-line yet to rupture and is expected to generate up to an 8.0 quake at any time.
On the Canary Islands, the La Palma’s shield volcano, which could create (and historically does) a mega/ocean-wide tsunamis next time it erupts, is now in its average window of activity.

A similar volcanically-induced Tsunamis is also possible in the Western Pacific where Iwo Jima--whose summit has grown 20m since 1945 due to a building magma chamber--could potentially cause a tsunami wiping out Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo... some of the most populated cities on Earth.

The entire southern flank of the big island of Hawaii is slumping and threatening a 100-foot ocean-wide tsunami along every pacific shoreline. Seventy such past landslide events have happened in the Hawaiian chain in the last 20 million years.
The western-Atlantic coastal-shelf off the eastern-seaboard of the U.S. has a long history of landslide events and there are cracks along the edge which also threatening an ocean-wide tsunami.

The Yellowstone Super Volcano is within it’s own 600K time-frame window of eruptions and presently stirring with quake swarms.

Italy’s Campi Flegrei smaller Super Volcano--said to have likely wiped out the Neanderthal--on the boarder of Naples and as densely populated as Hong Kong--is not only stirring but modeled to be on the doorstep of a degassing eruption event at any time. Mt. Vesuvius--directly South of Naples is also decades past due for an eruption.

The Apoyeque volcano in Nicaragua typically produces some of the largest explosions on Earth every 2,000 years and has just entered its average window of possible activity.

Literally dozens of other possible smaller volcanic eruptions are possibly and easily capable of periodic year-long global winters and blackout conditions greatly reducing the effectiveness of solar. Iceland is now said to be entering its own 150-year cycle of increased activity with potentially devastating effects on Europe.

Looming in the background of possible events as we all know are killer asteroids impacts to consider with a near repeat of the 1907 Tunguska event happening again almost exactly 100 years later also in Siberia, Russia. Even asteroids just 30m in diameter can super-heat and explode in the atmosphere with the strength to wipe out the largest cities, not to mention the tsunamis they’d generate if one were to hit an ocean.

[Eco-Author]

In this paper (https://www.facebook.com/notes/chris-eldridge/climate-action-a-disaster-planners-perspective/10155988846959420/) I argue the need to look WELL BEYOND just the dangers of climate change!  If we are having to indeed rebuild all of society from scratch in the safest locations possible, these are all the 'other' considerations you need to take into account.  Also listed out are recommendations such as nullifying all patents, and making electric cars not only with emergency home generator abilities, but also to have a micro mail boxed sized turbine that can burn ANY fuel so that you are not out of luck with the GRID is totally destroyed in disasters such as Hurricane Michael.   

[Reallybigbunny]

Here in New Zealand... We'll just keep digging ourselves out while we can.

[Eco-Author]

The key to First 'surviving' the wave of collapse capable superstorms/quakes/volcanos/war.... is THEN to be in a position that your industries are up to the challenge of BUILDING all the Ultra-advanced CO2 extraction plants (as many as there are McDonnald's in this world)/air and water filtration systems/recycling centers/Nuclear power plant clean up/Terraforming equipment that will be needed en-mass for the next several centuries to clean the world back up!  This is ALSO what makes Ultra-remote locations silly.... There just is not the natural resources and infrastructure to build such a MASSIVE/protected industrial base on some remote island... Central Canada on the other hand is Dead center of an already existing massive infrastructure with the northern most rail lines connecting to all other industrial centers... This is vital not only to build such a massive undertaking in the first step, but is in ideal position to clean it all up quickly.

[Eco-Author]

I add this final photo hoping to encourage thoughts of HOW do we effectively clean up a burnt out/possibly submerged nuclear reactor?  It is 'JUST' an example of the scale of equipment that might one day be even far larger to 'scoop up' a reactor in one scoop to perhaps take it to some tomb somewhere. 


The other photo is the tomb built over Chernobyl which is the size of a stadium.  People who argue that 'Chernobyl' is now somehow safe or that the effects of nuclear disasters aren't as long lived, need to realize the Hurculean effort it took to make that area of the world as safe as it can be... UNLESS you are repeatedly able to build such structures (in a world that can barely cope with one nuclear disaster at a time - possibly forced to cope with as many as 2,000 at once) you will need far more effective shelters than a simple homestead or a grouping there of!!!

[Eco-Author]

Setting out to redesign a LAST STAND OUTPOST, we first must also realize that the city centric model of this industrial age went out with the advent of electricity Not to mention new CNC and 3D printing technology!  We needn't think like the days of old that you need "CITIES" to have substantial industry!  This below example is of a turbo prop that can be made even in the shops and basemenst of an apartment complex and offer 1/4th of the efficiency that we see needed in this coming age of CO2 reduction.  This engine has 12 major parts... the engine it replaced had ===> 855 <=== FURTHERMORE 1/3rd of the parts can be 3D printed and composites and CNC machining are things we can also do in our own garages!  Thus, WORKING FROM HOME H O M E is the number one key to reducing our overly vulnerable and transportation dependent infrastructure that we couldn't hope to maintain even in ideal conditions (i.e. the state of US roads and Bridges etc.)

We need to realize that much like LED Tv's, turbo props and so on... new technology is often VERY SIMPLE and easy to make - only requiring a society based on a well dispersed/fully-funded home based industry that does well to insulate us from the likes of War (DISPERSAL) or pandemics (being fully quarenteenable without the need for outside interaction) which are threats all themselves!  ULTRA-Self Sufficiency is the KEY to nearly any disaster, war, pandemic, or economic collapse you can think of!

[Eco-Author]

Central Canada can support one of the FASTEST, most ROBUST buildups in the world because--counting the Hudson bay--is one of the shortest paths between ports on both main oceans, right in the heart of the industrial hemisphere!  North and WEST of nearly all NH reactors..., has a plateau-like high ground ideal to build on above sea level rise and mass flooding (provided you don't build along rivers), and well away from active scizmic and volcanic regions along the west coast.  Being away from the ocean you'll NEVER have the ALL Feared FIRE HOSE effect like Florence/Harvey... Protected by the rockey mountains themselves from atmospheric rivers of the Pacific... Being FAR away from the coasts behind mountains can be a major key!!!  Lots of resources in those mountains to help support mass recovery equipment and even though starting to get polouted, has some of the cleanest waters in the NH

[Archimid]

It may be that fall and winter snow in the American NH might get a few nasty surprises. As the globe warms, there will be more water in the air and that water may become unprecedented snowstorms.

I think the only last stand strategic location without vulnerabilities is under the ground. We've lived in caves many times before in our evolutionary history.

[Eco-Author]

It may be that fall and winter snow in the American NH might get a few nasty surprises. As the globe warms, there will be more water in the air and that water may become unprecedented snowstorms.

You make an excellent point we don't consider nearly enough!  We don't associate snow with GW but I started writing about this also due to what.... Five NOR EASTERS in the NE US in 2018 not to mention the BEAST FROM THE EAST London Saw with the Jet stream traveling 8,000 miles in reverse from FAR eastern Siberia to London.  Erie PA not far from me also got 5-FEET of snow in like one week.... What.... WTF happens if we hit seven feet, or 20'  You could collapse an entire region and destroy every single building with that kind of snow PERMANENTLY!!!   BIG Problems - I'll even throw in we similarly have to worry about EXTREME HAIL given the CAPE readings we've been seeing over 7K - bound to get worse!

Hope we can agree that just cause 'canada' gets a lot of snow doesn't mean that the SOUTHERN hemisphere is excluded.  Have you watched the Southern Jet this year?  It was often worse (Rosby waves) and BACKWARDS FLOWS) than the Northern hemisphere in 2018.

Lol... after the beast from the east, I commented on fb WTF would happen if we got hit with a harvey sized snow storm?  OMFG! 

More to the point perhaps of your reason for bringing this up is that the homes I call for such as the sci-fi version of what I typically design below.... NOTHING can touch this.... 40' of snow or ash... Bring-it-on!!  BTW... given such snow, disasters... hail potential we face, working at home is a major advantage!

[Eco-Author]

I think the only last stand strategic location without vulnerabilities is under the ground. We've lived in caves many times before in our evolutionary history.

Hey... if you don't mind I'd like to take some time to address this... so please bare with me!  First of all I am very worried about underground structures.... Much like how submariners worry about FIRE and FLOOD, so too must anything underground!  If you do make it absolutely water tight, the structure actually will want to float thus breaking all the sewer lines etc...  whatever... you definitely don't want it to lift up and resettle crooked for example.  You also don't really gain much, in fact you loose a GREAT DEAL of potential and defensive abilities...  You still have to filter potentially radioactive air from outside, you constantly need power to heat your building, constant dehumidification and you need to be above ground anyway for things like truck docs, garage bays, helicopter hangers.... Deployment for your hikers and bikers.... All my buildings have say TWO underground levels and like 10-14 above. 

People don't realize that 'BUNKERS' for WWIII are highly unnecessary... As long as you weren't in the narrow 10-degree wind-driven ash fall out, you are basically SAFE form a modern 300kt blast within say 8 miles... pull out the lawn chair and watch the fire works basically!  I have supporting docs on this if needed but not only aren't nuclear bombs as destructive as people think outright... I think in a realistic modern exchange you'd only see 3-10 sites nuked as it only takes that many to collapse a nation ie. Silicon valley... Norfolk VA...  NYC..  Panama Canal...

What happens after that and the collapse it causes is the big concern.  In the buildings I show and design you can survive a nuclear blast withing 2,000 meters.... Soviet missile trains could survive it within 1,000m and silos themselves I think are rated at a 10-50 meter strike survivability.... This is why they have to be so accurate... even the concrete 'stand' they tested the first A bomb on is still standing and that was only what, 3-feet wide?! 

Its a misplaced psychology about bunkers and the UTTER FOLLY can be seen in the OUTRAGIOUSLY HUMEROUS DRAWING BELOW.. Lol. 

[Eco-Author]

I write about this topic a lot... Likely the most important research ALL of humanity can do in this late hour is try to find the best places to make our Last Stand on a dying world. Seems many hail these South Pacific areas as the promise land, but I'm VERY concerned this is far from true. Prior to my last two months of study, ...just following climate trends alone, one can easily see how climate change, raging storms, and high heat are actually effecting the SOUTH PACIFIC even more than the rest of the planet... As we speak NZ is about to get hit yet again with another major rain event and seems to flood every few months?. As the ice disappears in the North, it is my fear, all the HEAT will have no option but to head South... raging battles against the world's last remaining ice. Floods have greatly effected much of Australia not to mention their share of HEAT WAVES and droughts. Recently, however, I've learned that the entire South Island of New Zealand is now exactly due for the regularly occurring (almost like clockwork every 300 years) of a major 8.4 quake along the alpine fault system that spans all of the South Island and branches into the north... Along the NORTH Island.. a newly discovered SUBDUCTION fault--the WORST KIND--threatens a Japanese 2011-sized rupture and tsunami right in the Wellington area effecting ALL of the North Island and much of the south. I've learned also that one of the world's most deadly SUPER VOLCANO caldrans is in Northern NZ and OMG... one of their largest northern cities is built on an active volcanic field littered with the reminence of 50 one-off volcanoes with an active magma chamber below and more on the way.... There is a recently discovered SUPER PLUME of magma covering a third of the entire south pacific that undercuts some of the this island... Land slides and plate slips... Typhoons and tsunamis make this the LAST choice even discounting future warming!

I worry very much that anyone heading there are only going to cut themselves off from any possible help or resupply when these big events hit. ANY effort to hide from nuclear radiation as the world collapse would be advised to look at CO2 levels in the Antarctic noticing that even though all the industry is in the north, CO2 for the South pole is--last I checked--only 5% below the global average: indicating just how much radiation is likely to spread after collapse! Recently noticing the jet stream is now consistently over these areas and likely about to bring even more storms... and more rain! As bad as the Northern Jet Stream looks, I'd have to say of late, the Southern Hemisphere Jet is even worse...

For all the effort people put in to avoid a panicing population running wild after the first sign of a collapse, I'd have to argue that this is unlikely to last more than a few months. Individually NO PLACE would be safe... but with the right designs we could live on the moon if we wanted. As a disaster planner, it is my job not to "hide from" or "shoot at" people lucky enough to survive the first stroke of midnight, but to help them... Not seeing them as something to be afraid of, but our last remaining hope to pull ourselves back together long enough to clean up this world before we drag down everything but ameba with us for millions of years to come.

Also shown in the photos below is an Austrailian quake map, the OCEAN WIDE 100' tsunami the Hawaiian slump could generate, and the super plume under about a third of the south pacific ocean including the northern part of NZ

[Eco-Author]

HUMANITY is unlikely to act (let alone act correctly) based on global warming alone... But if you tell them they can address ALL disasters at once...

[Archimid]

Humanity will act to the threat like any other animal would, unaware and unprepared. We had the advantage of science and economics and could have mounted a much more human response, but fear got the best of us, so we will default to animal reactions like building walls when we should building and reinforcing our bridges.

[Eco-Author]

South American Ataconda desert on the border with Bolivia I belive has a super volcano that some peg as the most likely of all super volcanos to go off next... No shortage of quakes in Chilli and two nuke plants in Argentina

[Eco-Author]

See time mark 11 min. for the clockwork like regularity for massive quakes along the Alpine fault!

[Eco-Author]

Many of the remote places--such as NZ and The tip of south America--are so, I don't think people have considered that one of the first things to collapse is civil aviation... In the mad dash of the final hours prior to a collapse [even if there is still time] people won't just be able to casually board an airliner to go zooming off to some supposed safe haven. 

I'm also a bit in awe how we see so many scientists seeking some survival onclave to 'hide from and FIGHT OFF' the people lucky enough to survive.... I mean aren't we supposed to be the ones that 'STICK UP FOR' and TRY TO PROTECT anyone we can, much like paramedics?  It can be seen as the ultimate FUCK YOU to the world to be secretly planning your getaway and not doing all we can to save everyone we can.  This is where I think the ball drops for climate scientists as... Instead of proposing SOLUTIONS as GRAVE as our situation, we instead propose things like Voting... Carbon Tax... …. a shift to green energy which even under an apolo sinario would take decades.... and still not account for all the other dangers like sea level rise etc.   


Is it just me or do we see the same sort of DENIAL we accuse climate denials of in the denial of mega quakes, tsunamis like the Hawaiian slump.... You're problem is in only focusing in one problem when there are at least 12 that can END US far quicker than the climate

[SteveMDFP]

See time mark 11 min. for the clockwork like regularity for massive quakes along the Alpine fault! 

Fascinating video.  Sort of seismo-archeology, illuminating current risk.
Seems an 8+ magnitude quake is due in the Southern Alps area any year now.

[Eco-Author]

See time mark 11 min. for the clockwork like regularity for massive quakes along the Alpine fault! 

Fascinating video.  Sort of seismo-archeology, illuminating current risk.
Seems an 8+ magnitude quake is due in the Southern Alps area any year now.

The Alpine fault is a slip fault... when it goes I remember hearing something on the order of 18,000 landslides are expected across the south island.  With only two north south routes, the math isn't that hard. 


The situation on the North ISland is no better, and in fact far worse.  The subduction fault off the East coast is said to be able to generate a 2011-Japan-level Tsunami and quake...  The last two lectures (time mark 1:33) talk about this:

[Eco-Author]

People worry I think a bit too much about Yellowstone... Perhaps not enough?  But one thing is for sure that most don't realize is that there are like a half a dozen other supervolcanos and this person pegs the one in Chili (ataconda desert which just had a 6.2 quake this morning), as the most likely to erupt next. 

[Eco-Author]

1) 100-ft Tsunami across every coast of the Pacific (multiple sources)

2) 150-ft Tsunami across every coast of the Atlantic (multiple sources)

3) WWIII-VI

4) Global Pandemic

5) 8.0 quake 10km shallower under Tokyo than was designed for (TOTAL LOSS OF CITY)

6) Asteroid impact

7) VEI7+ Volcanic event 1-5yrs without summer (happened three times in 1800s

1859-Level Solar Storm event... Shorting out every major electronic device?!! Something to keep in mind when pushing for solar

Editing in progress... Eight potential disasters far worse than climate change.  Not at all denying what abrupt climate change can be like... in fact I probably think the effects are far worse than most such as rain bombs on Greenland washing vast chunks of ice out to see....  Yet, we face so much more!  All of these together call for far more of a change than just carbon taxes...  The earth can't even sustain the continual rebuild of the modern world every 100 years as it is so YEAH... everything already has to be rebuilt so now is the time to get it right!

[oren]

Most of these things are distractions. Their annual probability is quite low, while climate change will hit us for a certainty in the next few decades, almost guaranteeing civilizational collapse by 2100 or sooner.
The only thing that could precede it (or actually go hand in hand with it, stemming from dwindling resources and hastening collapse) is WWIII.
And I strongly doubt human civilization survives enough to make WWIV-VI as you implied.
As the saying goes, I don't know what weapons will be used in WWIII, but for a certainty WWIV will be fought with stone spears.

[Pikk_Ax]

Personally I'm going with the permaculture garden in west-central British Columbia as far away from large groups of people as practicable and not on route to anywhere anyone is likely to want to go.
Here's why:
I think permaculture explains itself, a food forest/garden maximizing resiliency over productivity and just built to be as big and strong as it can and to last as long as it can.
The stick shack homestead will have as many back-up water supplies and fuel/power supplies as possible and the land will have to be managed strongly at the outset to make the environment as inhospitable to forest fires as possible.(fire breaks/fuel removed,etc.)

Here's where it get's too weird for some people...
I think that this is one of the best spots not because it offers the best chance for survival of the coming abrupt climate destabilization but because it offers one of the longer chances of surviving it with a higher standard of living come the end.
(No one, self included, is surviving much less rebuilding anything post Biosphere collapse)
No large life forms are going to long-term survive and abrupt global climate destabilization.
Large scale ecosystem collapse is what is coming with abrupt climate change.
Total ecosystem collapse.
Without any disaster in particular Humankind has already caused the beginning of the 6th Mass extinction which is eliminating the flora and fauna faster that any of the other Mass Extinctions.
Throw in abrupt climate destabilization and that accelerates even faster.
So one day, and it looks like that day is coming soon, maybe in a couple years... Someone with a big red button is going to see the world food productivity has decreased once again, and food shortages are getting worse and there's no improvement in sight 'cause all the reefs are dying and the forests burning and the methane bubbling and the Arctic sea ice disappearing may have set it all off.
I think the Big Red Button will probably be a global pandemic that drastically reduces the world population without immediately destroying the biosphere thereby leaving more resources for the remaining chosen people.(In theory)
There's more than one BRB out there, so keep your eyes open and ear to the ground and watch for the next exciting adventures in "Sea ice area and extent data" and "20xx freezing/melting season"
In our lifetimes we will get to be part of the end of our history.
(Don't bother trying to convince me that humanity can be saved, the idea is trite and way more unrealistic than even my most paranoid rantings)

The above is my opinion on Critical last stand strategic location considerations.
Supporting facts are wildly disseminated and known.
Paranoid theories are entirely home grown.

[Eco-Author]

Most of these things are distractions. Their annual probability is quite low, while climate change will hit us for a certainty in the next few decades, almost guaranteeing civilizational collapse by 2100 or sooner.
The only thing that could precede it (or actually go hand in hand with it, stemming from dwindling resources and hastening collapse) is WWIII.
And I strongly doubt human civilization survives enough to make WWIV-VI as you implied.
As the saying goes, I don't know what weapons will be used in WWIII, but for a certainty WWIV will be fought with stone spears.

Oren... Most Definitely agree this list comes off that way.  It's raw and unsupported and--like asteroids--does come off as distraction.  I'm pretty sure we can all agree that society is a house-of-cards Ready to collapse on its own basically, and this is not a listing of estranged events like you see on some 'Discovery' channel docs including the likes of GAMA Ray Bursts... and I'm not even talking about VEI8 Super volcanoes, which you'll get no argument from me they are indeed exceedingly rare.  Overall, what I've been hoping such lists help you guys with is to make your point more strongly.  For example, If we were to argue we need to abandon all coastal cities because of sea level rise w/ what.... an atmospheric CO2 content already indicative of 15m higher sea level?.... than it only STRENGTHENS your argument to say "We need to avoid coastal cities because of: Sea level rise, Tsunamis, Toxic Algae blooms, Stalled-out Super storms (ie Michael and Harvey), and toxic inland flooding runoff... basically the beach is the last place on earth you'd want to be even as things are right now..... 

I think my list above also needs more context and I think doing so will further prove my point oren,

1) Tusnamis (even possible in the Mediterainian) have happened three times in the last 14 years and if the 2011 Mag 9.0 quake generated even a wave 5m higher.... we all might have been trying to contact our relatives wondering where to gather to face the end... If the quake was twice as close to land... let alone under Tokyo, I believe 6 Nuclear disasters (not just one) and the total collapse of Japan (tied into ever western engineering project) would have led to the disaster we hope to avoid... Just ONE event, seven years ago....

2) Landslide Tusnamis (which I was refering to) have only happened twice to my knowledge in the last 50 years... Once washing over a reservoir in Italy and once in some feord in Alaska.  They DO HAPPEN.... In the last three months, three reports came out saying how much more common they are, listing Ones that happen in the North Sea, off the coast of Italy and portugal.  Hawaii has had 70 such events in the last 20 million years... the photo below shows all the recorded undersea land slides just off my own North East U.S. coast.

WWIII-IV I agree, is generally a reference to doomsday but hear again, let me add context.  We EVVVER have a WWII scale conventional war again--easily possible if the West is foolish enough to attack Iran who can close off the persion gulf with a mere artilery piece--and you'lll indeed collapse the world... All I'm saying is that the usual references to ALL OUT thermonuclear war isn't what I was refering to and indeed, even if ICBMs were used it is my expert opinion that only a handful (3-10) would ever be used as that is all it takes to collapse a nation.  It is a falacy that people think EVERY weapon would be used... 2/3rds of the weapons are just backups for each other... 1/2 are tactical (10kt or smaller) used on the battle field... and you only need three targets such as the panama canal, norfolk va, and NYC to collapse the US and end global shipping basically. 

To me it is rather unscientific to write off pandemics as distraction.... I think the average past frequency is once every hundred years and with global aviation...?  Cities will be ground zero for most any war, economic collapse and pandemics and should be considered the relics of the past they indeed are... The mere advent of electricty was itself enough to break the 'city-centric' view of industrialization, not to mention CNC macining or 3D printing.

[Eco-Author]

Don't even need SUPER VOLACNOES to end the world... Here are a list of the top ten in recent history that most of which could have ended us... How do you plan to reconcile the opposing needs to prepare for volcanic events vs. Extreme climate change?  Volcanic blackout conditions greatly limit solar output alone! 

[Eco-Author]

Asteroid impacts like volcanoes, come in all sizes and I was not referring to the Yukatan dinosaur killer of 65 million years ago which I'll give you are unlikely.  What I was referring to are the Tunguska event of 1907 which leveled 70 miles of forests and the one that happened just recently almost exactly 100 years after Tunguska and also in Eastern Siberia.  We now know that a mere 30-meter wide asteroid can superheat and explode in the atmosphere causing a massive shockwave.  This is now the SECOND in 100 years... explode over a major city and we could collapse the economy of a nation!  We've also learned many important things about near earth asteroids such as there being thousands... and highly eliptical orbiting ones come in with ZERO warning and far faster from the outer solar system. EVEN a small body hitting an ocean at 34,000km per hour could itself kick up a wave across all shorelines of the entire pacific!

[Eco-Author]

How do you plan to reconcile the differences between the threats of volcanoes and Global Warming?

[Eco-Author]

Trying to argue the dangers of climate change without being diligent to include equally or more sever Volcanic, quake, pandemic, war, economic and Tsunami threats (three + in the last 14 years with over two dozen eventual sources now known) will get this world NOWARE!!!

[Tor Bejnar]

I presume "NOWARE" is a child of "beware" and "no where".  Curious concept, for sure: "Beware of there being no where to hide!"

Climate change is affecting the Earth vaguely like a very large meteorite or massive volcanism, i.e., the whole Earth, and for a very long time (centuries).  Earthquakes, volcanoes (as we've know them these past many centuries), fires and hurricanes (etc.) may affect an area intensely, but whose effects mostly 'go away' after a year or two.  Plus, climate change (as we know it today) is entirely caused by human activity.

So unlike hurricanes where you can flee Florida, or earthquakes where you can flee California, or meteorites which you cannot flee (but approximately one person in modern history has been killed by one falling), climate change is the real Frankenstein: beware of there being no where to hide!

[Eco-Author]

Tor, I hear what you are saying but two points I'll make is that A) If the Fukushima tidal wave was just a few meters higher, or twice as close to land (if not under Tokyo itself) we ALLL might have been trying to contact our families wondering where to meet to face the end.  The world has not seen a big quake under a mega city but it will happen and many are long overdue... This one aspect... Say the complete loss of Tokyo would have not only collapsed Japan, but likely most all western civilization inticately tied to Japan for its components and products.  What if Hurricane Harvey hit NYC or Michael hit Miami as a cat 5???  the vulnerability to the economy if a far greater risk to these all to common events and Yess… we've not seen a significan erution or quake under a major city but one volcanic burp from Iceland or a volcanic year without summer as happened twice recently in the 1800's and its so long world! 

Secondly, From my general understanding climate change has already become unstoppable... Doesn't CO2 last for centuries in the atmosphere??  do you really think we can wind that down in even 100 years???  The whole part about my postings is not that we avoid addressing climate change, but that we finally INCLUDE all the other dangers just as if NOT MORE deadly.  As for not having a place to hide... with our tech we can survive anything when done right.  58,000% jumps in performance and efficiency are easily possible with a from scratch approach.  These facilities easily could survive a nuclear blast at 1,000m!

[Eco-Author]

This post is a bit old but shows a decided fundamental lacking in all of society... True and absolute security and safety is a required need at the heart of our species.  WE are undercutting societies potential by at least 58,000%... doesn't that mean anything to anyone?  for what is possible, I see the world as nothing more than an extention of the 17th century... we were likely even more secure back then??  What happens in the hundreds of years to come if ISIS gets ahold of a bomb or two or a dozen??  This is 1940's tech and bio weapons are even more dangerous with the head of the Atomic Buliton warning us of designer viruses in the century ahead! 

In a nut shell, you can't just target one aspect of our vulnerability and forget the DOZEN or so others which often have conflicting needs... The world itself is in a DIRE need for an overhaul and without this, no effort to tamp down CO2 (which will realistically require as many Co2 extraction plants as there are McDonnald's in this world) will save us.  Why is this page so OPPPPPOSSSED to prudent planning?

[GoSouthYoungins]

Yes, modern society is a rube goldberg machine with very long supply lines. This wouldn't be a bad thing, except that we have eliminated all previous (read: most robust) versions of EVERYTHING since they are deemed archaic and a waste of time/money.

Hardly anyone knows how to do hardly anything in its entirety. Labor has been commoditized to an absurd level. This (IMO) is why people are so stupid these days and believe things that are so clearly false. Growing/storing/cooking food from seed to meal OR breeding animals OR building a structure from simple materials teach holistic truths. Humans evolved knowing these truths and it was the balance to our calculating brain. Now, pretty much everyone in modern society is clueless to the underlying nature of reality.

(Also with this comes a confused sense of time. As opposed to long term generational thinking, people now are focused almost solely on their own lifetime. When people stop planting trees for shade they will never be able to sit it, society erodes to the fragile vacuousness we see around us today. The good news and the bad news is that it won't last long.)

[GoSouthYoungins]

Eastern slopes of the Southern Andes is by far the most strategic location for THE DOOM.

(About what I said regarding how screwed up the world is... The infograph below provides the glass half full interpretation, which shouldn't be ignored.)

[Eco-Author]

Eastern slopes of the Southern Andes is by far the most strategic location for THE DOOM.

SERIOUSLY... the "ANDES"... One of the most volcanic and earthquake prone areas of the world???  To me that is trading one form of denial for another.  Who is even going to be able to reach such a remote/distant place in the early days of collapse as the very first thing to shut down is international air travel.  The Southern jet has also proven to be just as unstable as the norther one and when talking about any thin landmass... I.e. Japan, Italy, Great Britain, NZ... you run the risk of getting the entire area and all roads closed off coast to coast just from a single storm.  By running away so far, you've also doomed humanity by being so distant that you cannot help the world recover.  For the massive industries we'll need to clean up the planet, we need to have our last stand outpost near to where it is supposed to help... where the infrastructure already exists to built it a 100X better and with a 1,000 times more abilities than some remote village so that we can save as many as we can.  Is this the place that I've heared 'thousands' of scollars have signed on to go??  As the Co2 concentrations in Antartica clearly show, you cannot escape the radiation of meltdowns.  Co2 is typically only a few percent less in the south than the north even though there are far fewer industries showing just how much what happens in the North effects the south too.

[Eco-Author]

Yes, modern society is a rube goldberg machine with very long supply lines. This wouldn't be a bad thing, except that we have eliminated all previous (read: most robust) versions of EVERYTHING since they are deemed archaic and a waste of time/money.

Hardly anyone knows how to do hardly anything in its entirety. Labor has been commoditized to an absurd level. This (IMO) is why people are so stupid these days and believe things that are so clearly false. Growing/storing/cooking food from seed to meal OR breeding animals OR building a structure from simple materials teach holistic truths. Humans evolved knowing these truths and it was the balance to our calculating brain. Now, pretty much everyone in modern society is clueless to the underlying nature of reality.

(Also with this comes a confused sense of time. As opposed to long term generational thinking, people now are focused almost solely on their own lifetime. When people stop planting trees for shade they will never be able to sit it, society erodes to the fragile vacuousness we see around us today. The good news and the bad news is that it won't last long.)

Just the way EMPIRE loves it... "US" dependent on their businesses for EVERYTHING!  Society is in fact structured to make us even more dependent.  the Self-sufficient Castles of old were Not make obsolute by the cannon.... but by the Elite who didn't want islands of self-sufficiency existing in their kingdoms!

[NeilT]

When I was in the Army we used to be taught IA's.  Or otherwise known as Immediate Actions.  The Immediate Action on sensing a Nuclear Explosion was to turn away from the flash, fall to the ground and drag as much of your kit under you as possible.

We, being Squaddies, had an alternate IA.  Stick your head between your legs and kiss your Ass goodbye.  Which, we firmly believed, was as likely to result in the same end as the one we were being taught.

Honestly subject this to a risk analysis.  There are 7.6bn people on this world. Which means that no matter where you go and no matter how safe you think it is, there will be at least 6.6 bn people trying to kill you and take it away from you so that they can survive.

Unless you factor in defence in the sustainability factor, you can forget it.  Never mind the fact that a planet, which has decided that we are the biggest issue to it's survival, is going to fairly thoroughly get rid of us.

There are two ways to survive GW.

1. Leave the planet and start again in a strict controlled environment
2. Don't cause the problem in the first place.

Given that no more than a few million would be able to take option 1, option 2 is the most likely recourse to survive AGW.

Having reasoned that out, then you have to come to the conclusion that the "critical last stand" is here, now and this site is leading the charge.

So carry on leading and, perhaps, one day, we'll win.

Failing that you can do the Squaddies Alternate IA for a Nuclear explosion.  Any bit of land will do, no need to be picky.....

[El Cid]

thumbs up, NeilT!

[Eco-Author]

Unless you factor in defence in the sustainability factor, you can forget it. 

Most of the people here I'd fathom would rather run away to the ends of the earth to avoid the chaos of the masses rather than even speak the word DEFENSE.  As per the postings above, my homes would not only survive a modern war, they are an intregal part of national defense, DISPERSING and SECURING industrial centers to where we live... not conglomerated en-mass in cities.  One can easily argue that even modern militaries themselves need the support of local communities in order to survive the concept of "the closed battlefield" full of drones and long range submunitions that place any mobile force at risk. 

Though it will hardly be 6.6 billion people you have to fight off, in true collapse even a gang of 50 heavily armed/semi-trained individuals is all it would take to lay waste to the HOMESTEAD DENIAL group living in stick built homes pretending their isolation protects them.  In modern times a single naval frigate and NH90 stealth helicopter could create a situation on par with Pearl Harbor.  WE are indeed way to volunerable which MUST be considered in ANY plan for the future!

[kassy]

I still think it must be option 2.

There was an article a while back about futurist who was hired for a private talk with some millionaires. He assumed it was about tech stocks or something like that but it wasn´t.

The people who can afford their own islands plus whatever palace/bunker hybrid they want to build there and have an army of guards to keep people out had a nagging problem... how would they keep their guards from murdering them?

Article is linked somewhere on the forum probably in Places becoming less liveable thread.

[Eco-Author]

The people who can afford their own islands plus whatever palace/bunker hybrid they want to build there and have an army of guards to keep people out had a nagging problem... how would they keep their guards from murdering them?

Article is linked somewhere on the forum probably in Places becoming less liveable thread.

Apologize if I guess wrong but are you in turn arguing for no defense???  "Armies are made up of the people that make up society and equally benefit from the wealth (or lack there of within).  Provided there are no crimes against humanity going on, I'd guarantee they'd defend us and themselves in the process.  If you note from the photos the homes are as safe as a bank vault requiring a ===>  TANK  <=== just to wake me out of bed... not a mere drunkard throwing a wine bottle through my window as would be the case in an undefended homestead group.  As also shown in the photo there are 75mm automated naval guns on the roof making every individual home a near insermountable obstical. Every building numbering thousands like this, who all join in a line to secure the roads and rail from even remote snipers and drones, add to each others mutual defense. 

NOTE: It has long been predicted in religion that during the prophesized times of collapse, it will be EVERYONE - Even your own family who will be at each other's throats so if your worry is security forces taking over you miss the human nature to turn on and devour itself it such times... I can only forsee being so prepared you don't even notice the collapse as being the key to even this unthought of level of worry.   

This robust durability has multiple benefits as it's not just impervious to armies, but quakes, fires, tornados, extreme hail and the like! 

[Bernard]

Having reasoned that out, then you have to come to the conclusion that the "critical last stand" is here, now ...

Well stated, Neil. This is one boat, and we are all on board.

[kassy]

Eco-Author i was restating the ´the "critical last stand" is here, now´ with an example.

I did miss (or dismiss) the 75mm guns. There is also a picture of a Star Trek bridge. Is the starship (Intripid class?) included too?

 

[Eco-Author]

I did miss (or dismiss) the 75mm guns. There is also a picture of a Star Trek bridge. Is the starship (Intripid class?) included too?

For lack of anything equivalent, I use sci fi to highlight what has become rather humdrum... makes people take a second look and can add gravity.  That particular photo may symbolize the top brase getting together in a no win sinario with a plan... And, yes... I've always compared my self-sufficient designs to ships like the QE2 which has astonishing tech and low impact undernieth the surface. 

I'll give a couple examples of the use of sci fi to help add gravity in a second, but why would you discount something just cause its military?  I hope that does not include helicopters and other vehicles that are so important.  The military itself needs to be housed this way and essentially can fund the whole operation

[Eco-Author]

The conflicting requirements of preparing for volcanic events [Years without summer] and solar energy.  Wind Power is not only also vulnerable to extreme Ice storms such as what happened in Canada, but one of the primary anticipated side effects of global Warming itself... A SLOWER JETSTREAM which not only can die out altogether making most surface winds negligable, but shift patterns to far different locations away from wind farms. Turbines used in the sea may also suffer from a stalling out of ocean currents which is already sighted as happening just last year. I'm not a fan of nuclear, but given the potential for years long volcanic blackout conditions I'm recommending the study of Micro reactors that you can 'TRUCK OUT' if there are problems! Canada had blackout conditions just last year from all the wildfires!

Overall, we need to have the ABSOLUTE most efficient civilization and use as many sources of power as we can dream up... Including capturing energy from elevators, waste energy from one industry that can be used for other things etc...

[Eco-Author]

Completion of a ten year project over what is now an 18-month lockdown/self-isolation:

[Eco-Author]

Detailed Blow-up View of the alternating highway directions shown above... The main point is not to have individual cities or communities that require their own roads... Simply pick your most important/Strategic routes and build between the highway you already fully need!  Doing so eliminates the need for bridges over roads, stop signs/red lights of any kind in ALLL of society.  This "From Scratch" approach will be vital as we finally realize that every city and town bordering on the world's rivers and coast lines can not be sustained due to mega floods!  The EARTH cannot even sustain modern society as it is, let alone to have to rebuild every piece of it every 50-150 years.  San Francisco alone has some 75,000 miles of underground utilities... Try repairing all that after a quake during a pandemic and/or economic crisis.