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Juan C. García

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Ocean temperatures
« on: October 31, 2018, 11:28:59 PM »
I did not find this topic. I am not an expert, but it is important to have it.

Quote
Startling new research finds large buildup of heat in the oceans, suggesting a faster rate of global warming.

Over the past quarter-century, Earth’s oceans have retained 60 percent more heat each year than scientists previously had thought, said Laure Resplandy, a geoscientist at Princeton University who led the startling study published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/31/startling-new-research-finds-large-buildup-heat-oceans-suggesting-faster-rate-global-warming/

Quote
The new research does not measure the ocean’s temperature directly. Rather, it measures the volume of gases, specifically oxygen and carbon dioxide, that have escaped the ocean in recent decades and headed into the atmosphere as it heats up. The method offered scientists a reliable indicator of ocean temperature change because it reflects a fundamental behavior of a liquid when heated.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2018, 11:40:16 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Hefaistos

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2018, 09:05:14 AM »
This is a really important research paper with enormous policy implications. Because of the increased heat already stored in the ocean, the maximum emissions that the world can produce while still avoiding a warming of two degrees Celsius would have to be reduced by 25 percent.

“I feel like this is a triumph of Earth-system science. That we could get confirmation from atmospheric gases of ocean heat content is extraordinary,” said Joellen Russell, a professor and oceanographer at the University of Arizona. “You’ve got the A team here on this paper.”

Open access at:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8.epdf?referrer_access_token=CaC3iFrPBg-kkAuZwE4xxtRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PPM6F5Tw--xUcDaVyo5KYP7_G9gTDd9jkXQCGLmYVcdiHz9wkwN0E6N2nDZlq4WDQgItGi5ylVScf0yzGnaEVfvjiMb4AD29fhh3xQR3z_DrC_cMrTVL7ZhdR6IhWWEdbaBw61pmJWfJX3nlJ6qnYm0eEGF290YDw0L29Qu1D0Zo3ti9EtUV0eTqh8Y9w5-oUx2QwN2d9ZfvrbV8VI76Jac_wGy8vU0HDJC8kZsxCODUxL-v0-LWQnBluUpq-qsDVGV_FnsfWBY3t9eDW5Z4-YAmGWsK7U9CqUBkBPZgcWuym47_1VtxT74CJE_Bl65D2JD9IkLxfX80W9RBKrmEExeZfoxsqBGM592131t1to5g%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com

crandles

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2018, 01:13:23 PM »
Quote
A higher ΔOHC will also affect the equilibrium climate sensitivity,
recently estimated at between +1.5 K and +4.5 K if CO2 is doubled1.
This estimated range reflects a decrease in the lower bound from 2 K to
1.5 K owing to downward revision of the aerosol cooling effect (in the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment
Report, as compared with the Fourth Assessment Report)1,24, but
relied on a low ΔOHC value (0.80 × 1022 J yr−1
 for 1993–2010).
An upward revision of the ocean heat gain by +0.5 × 1022 J yr−1 (to
1.30 × 1022 J yr−1  from 0.80 × 1022 J yr−1 ) would push up the lower
bound of the equilibrium climate sensitivity from 1.5 K back to 2.0 K
(stronger warming expected for given emissions), thereby reducing
maximum allowable cumulative CO2 emissions by 25% to stay within
the 2 °C global warming target (see Methods).

I wondered if this meant that it mainly affected the lower bound rather than all points on the pdf being pushed up.

James Annan is quick to respond:

Quote
I think they are just focusing on the lower bound as it provides a strong constraint on what we'd need to do to stay under 1.5 or 2C. Their revision will affect the upper bound too. Longer post coming!

and that longer post is at
https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2018/11/01/that-new-ocean-heat-content-estimate/

Pmt111500

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Re: ocean's heat intake larger than formerly believed
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2018, 05:19:41 PM »
and this would be why Sea Ice decrease has surpassed the earlier projections. Can't say I'm surprised but it's nice to have this measured since some idiots on government-level go into extremes in their obtuseness denying crystal clear science.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 05:51:41 PM by Pmt111500 »
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2018, 07:45:32 PM »
So what does this mean for the measurements by NOAA (which are used by vast numbers of scientists)? e.g. attached graphs
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crandles

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2018, 08:24:49 PM »
Paper is at
http://sci-hub.tw/10.1038/s41586-018-0651-8

For ocean heat content implications, Fig 1 seems the relevant graph:


Rod

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2018, 06:04:24 AM »
So what does this mean for the measurements by NOAA (which are used by vast numbers of scientists)? e.g. attached graphs

The measurements are still the measurements and the data points are good.  The authors of the new paper simply argue that there are not enough data points to use them to generate graphs like the ones you have posted. 

They have developed a new methodology which they claim is more representative of the ocean conditions as a whole. 

The paper is very interesting.  But, the methodology is new and untested, and as time goes by other scientists will likely find fault with some of the assumptions they have made. 

The take home message is that the oceans are storing a lot of excess heat, and it is very likely more than the previous estimates.  This is one more very important study that shows we are running out of time to get carbon emissions under control. 

Juan C. García

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2018, 11:58:54 PM »
A document to read:

IUCN: International Union for Conservation of Nature
Explaining Ocean Warming: Causes, scale, effects and consequences
Edited by D. Laffoley and J. M. Baxter
September 2016


https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/2016-046_0.pdf
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

kassy

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2019, 01:11:02 PM »
Parts of the ocean are still cooling, study suggests

Jan. 4 (UPI) -- Most of the world's oceans are responding to global warming, but new research suggests there are still pockets of the deep ocean where ancient cooling processes continue to play out.

Scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Harvard University determined the deep Pacific Ocean is still responding to the 16th century's Little Ice Age.

...

When researchers compared the datasets from the expeditions separated by more than a century, they found surface layers have warmed, as expected, but layers beginning roughly 1.2 miles beneath the surface have cooled.

"The close correspondence between the predictions and observed trends gave us confidence that this is a real phenomenon," said lead study author Jake Gebbie, a physical oceanographer at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

The new findings, detailed in the journal Science, suggest the ocean absorbed as much as 30 percent less heat than previously estimated.

https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2019/01/04/Parts-of-the-ocean-are-still-cooling-study-suggests/7631546621230/

These findings imply that variations in surface climate that predate the onset of modern warming still influence how much the climate is heating up today.  Previous estimates of how much heat the Earth had absorbed during the last century assumed an ocean that started out in equilibrium at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. But Gebbie and Huybers estimate that the deep Pacific cooling trend leads to a downward revision of heat absorbed over the 20th century by about 30 percent.

"Part of the heat needed to bring the ocean into equilibrium with an atmosphere having more greenhouse gases was apparently already present in the deep Pacific,” said Huybers.

https://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2019/01/long-memory-of-pacific-ocean

Juan C. García

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2019, 06:51:18 PM »
Thank you for the information, Kassy.  :)

I have suspicion on this study. I am not sure if it is related, but in the Hardvard link says: "This research was funded by the James E. and Barbara V. Moltz Fellowship and National Science Foundation grants OCE-1357121 and OCE-1558939". There is a James E. Moltz and Barbara Moltz living in Florida. James E. Moltz belongs to the Republican Party. Maybe I am not right making this relation, but at this time, I don't trust Republicans.

https://publicdatadigger.com/FL/vero-beach/46th-ave/123008998/James-Moltz

Edit:
Just suspicious on the conclusion: "Gebbie and Huybers estimate that the deep Pacific cooling trend leads to a downward revision of heat absorbed over the 20th century by about 30 percent." On the other hand, I hope they are right.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2019, 07:16:28 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

vox_mundi

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2019, 08:37:58 PM »
Although I agree that grants should be inspected for strings attached, i can't automatically discount research based on where the dollars came from.

My bigger issue with this research is it's reliance on comparing modern digital data with known error ranges and min/max analog underwater thermometer readings from a century ago.
Quote
... Between 1872 and 1876, scientists lowered thermometers deep into the ocean from the three-masted wooden sailing ship HMS Challenger. In the 90s, scientists with the World Ocean Circulation Experiment collected ocean temperature data from across the globe.

"We screened this historical data for outliers and considered a variety of corrections associated with pressure effects on the thermometer and stretching of the hemp rope used for lowering thermometers," said Huybers.
Their conclusions suggest a degree of certainty that exceeds the significant figures in their datasets.
Quote
... The researchers used the data from both projects to build a computer model meant to mimic the circulation of water in the Pacific Ocean over the past century and a half.

The model showed that the Pacific Ocean cooled over the course of the 20th century at depths of 1.8 to 2.6 kilometers. The amount is still not precise, but the researchers suggest it is most likely between 0.02 and 0.08° C.   
How precise and accurate were Cook's thermometer reading? +/-0.5°C?  0.1°C? 
... 0.01°C? I kinda doubt it.
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mitch

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2019, 09:19:49 PM »
Roemmich et al (2012; Nature Climate Change 1 April) give the precision of challenger thermometers to 0.1 F (0.06 C).  The cooling is at the edge of the observations. However, it matches the model prediction of a long lag time for cooling in the Pacific.

Wherestheice

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2019, 11:10:51 PM »
Yay back to BAU
"When the ice goes..... F***

Wherestheice

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2019, 11:17:21 PM »
There is other research that seems to disagree

https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/disrupting-deep-ocean-warming-reaches-abyss
https://oceanbites.org/is-the-deep-ocean-warming-too/

I have a hard time buying the claim that the deep ocean is still warming
"When the ice goes..... F***

Juan C. García

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #14 on: January 06, 2019, 12:04:03 AM »
Although I agree that grants should be inspected for strings attached, i can't automatically discount research based on where the dollars came from.
[/i]

I agree. It was the conclusion of the study what make me suspicious.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #15 on: January 06, 2019, 11:19:14 AM »
I wouldn't be surprised if some part of the deep ocean was still responding to a surface signal from hundreds of years ago. I seem to recall that it takes 1500 years to cycle the meridional overturning circulation, though perhaps that only applies to the Atlantic.
However, if that is indeed the case, this should also be supported by Argo data. I am susprised at the reliance on problematic data when accurate data should be available for a number of years. This is admittedly far from my area of expertise (if such even exists), so - what am I missing here?

Juan C. García

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #16 on: January 06, 2019, 05:05:49 PM »
On a second thought, I think that my comments were too fast and careless. So I want to excuse myself to put in doubt the intentions of the study of Gebbie and Huybers and the intentions of the James E. and Barbara V. Moltz Fellowship and National Science Foundation.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

kassy

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #17 on: January 06, 2019, 05:47:37 PM »
Some good points by Vox_Mundi and oren.

I have a hard time seeing how the 30% reduction in absorbed heat works.

We know that the mixing of waters takes place on long time scales so that there is deep water that is cooling could be. But 0.05 is a small number and 30% feels big but i guess it´s an artefact of ocean heat modelling?

Basically all that water is below the surface so it is not really involved in absorbing current or last century heat?


mitch

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #18 on: January 06, 2019, 05:47:54 PM »
There seems to be confusion about what the Gebbie and Huybers paper said. First, Atlantic deep circulation takes a few hundred years to complete, and Pacific deep circulation takes more like a thousand years.  The Atlantic circulation is warming up because it is surface water derived, and average deep ocean temperature is going up. However, the Pacific abyss is still cooling off on average because of the lag time in deep Pacific circulation. This cooling reduces the net amount of heat stored below 2000 m.

Incidentally, fellowships are usually given to students/post docs from endowments set up at the university. The donors typically have no ability to decide who gets them.


Tigertown

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #19 on: January 07, 2019, 01:25:53 AM »
You all might find a tidbit or two in this old thread: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1612.0.html

Juan C. García

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #20 on: January 07, 2019, 12:52:34 PM »
You all might find a tidbit or two in this old thread: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1612.0.html
Thank you for this link, Tigertown.
Surely I looked for the subject in Science, but I didn't look for it in Consequences. Maybe Neven can put them together.
I like it more in Science. As we can see, there is debate of how much the Oceans have been warming.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #21 on: January 07, 2019, 05:27:20 PM »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #22 on: January 07, 2019, 05:38:33 PM »
An another one…  ;). The same, just one post:

A Met Office report on Argo/OHC has just been published at:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2016/argo-observing-the-oceans

Some edited highlights:
Quote
During the whole of the 20th century around 0.5 million shipboard observations were collected, in contrast the Argo array is delivering around 120,000 new profiles each year and by November 2012 Argo had collected its millionth profile. The increase in the number of ocean profiles measured over the last 15 years, due to Argo, is shown in Figure 3, which also shows the significant increase in the amount of available salinity data.
UK Met Office Report on Ocean Heat Content
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1473.0.html
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

jai mitchell

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #23 on: January 12, 2019, 03:54:01 AM »
I wondered if this meant that it mainly affected the lower bound rather than all points on the pdf being pushed up.

James Annan is quick to respond:

Quote
I think they are just focusing on the lower bound as it provides a strong constraint on what we'd need to do to stay under 1.5 or 2C. Their revision will affect the upper bound too. Longer post coming!

and that longer post is at
https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2018/11/01/that-new-ocean-heat-content-estimate/

The post shows that the higher bounds are also raised by this analysis, however it must be noted that this higher bound is not constrained by future modeled climate system responses (changes in albedo, cloud regimes, tropical forest desiccation, etc.)

The lower AND upper constraints of the PAST climate sensitivity that these studies show are all based entirely on the uncertainty of negative forcing (cooling) currently being produced by aerosols.  Higher the aerosol effect, the greater the sensitivity.

I have posted this before to show a recent paper's results

Faero = -0.9 W/m^2 (at least)

Source: Mauritsen/Pincus 2017 
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3357
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are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Juan C. García

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #24 on: January 12, 2019, 05:37:54 AM »
How fast are the oceans warming?
Lijing Cheng1, John Abraham2, Zeke Hausfather3, Kevin E. Trenberth4

Back to the 93%:
Quote
About 93% of the energy imbalance accumulates in the ocean as increased ocean heat content (OHC).
Quote
These recent observation-based OHC estimates show highly consistent changes since the late 1950s (see the figure). The warming is larger over the 1971–2010 period than reported in AR5. The OHC trend for the upper 2000 m in AR5 ranged from 0.20 to 0.32 W m−2 during this period (4). The three more contemporary estimates that cover the same time period suggest a warming rate of 0.36 ± 0.05 (6), 0.37 ± 0.04 (10), and 0.39 ± 0.09 (2) W m−2.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6423/128
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

charles_oil

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #25 on: January 13, 2019, 01:08:17 AM »
An easier read on the subject:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/10/world/ocean-warming-faster/index.html

World's oceans absorbing 60% more heat than we thought, study says

The world's oceans are warming at an accelerated rate and are much warmer than scientists thought -- and things could get a lot worse if nothing is done to stop climate change, according to a new study.

The data, published in Thursday's edition of the journal Science, shows that the oceans have experienced consistent changes since the late 1950s and have gotten a lot warmer since the 1960s. The oceans are heating up much faster than scientists calculated in the UN assessment of climate change released in 2014. ..............

Paper referenced:
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/363/6423/128.full.pdf

Wherestheice

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #26 on: January 13, 2019, 02:05:39 AM »
The 60% number was updated and the update shows its about 40-50%, not 60%. Just wanted to point that out.
"When the ice goes..... F***

kassy

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #27 on: January 16, 2019, 12:36:16 PM »
Record-breaking ocean temperatures point to trends of global warming
2018 continues record global ocean warming

An international team, released the 2018 ocean heat content observations in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences on January 16, 2019. The newly available observations show that the year 2018 is the hottest year ever recorded for the global ocean, as evident in its highest ocean heat content since 1950s in the upper 2000m.

Compared to the average value that was measured 1981 - 2010, the 2018 ocean heat anomaly is approximately 19.67 x 1022 Joules, a unit measure for heat. This heat increase in 2018 relative to 2017 is ~388 times more than the total electricity generation by China in 2017, and ~ 100 million times more than the Hiroshima bomb of heat. The years 2017, 2015, 2016 and 2014 came in just after 2018 in order of decreasing ocean heat content. The values are based on an ocean temperature analysis product conducted by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) at Chinese Academy of Sciences.

and more on:
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-01/ioap-rbo011119.php

Juan C. García

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #28 on: January 16, 2019, 05:34:10 PM »
Record-breaking ocean temperatures point to trends of global warming
2018 continues record global ocean warming
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-01/ioap-rbo011119.php

Thank you Kassy.

It is interesting that we still have the North Atlantic Cold Blob that is the result of oceans melting the Greenland ice sheets (green circle added).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2019, 06:12:18 PM »
I had a look to see what NOAA had to say about ocean heat. Attached.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Juan C. García

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #30 on: February 08, 2019, 11:45:51 PM »
Some studies that we already know, but a good article for the general public:

Quote
"Earth’s oceans are routinely breaking heat récords"

2018 was the hottest year ever recorded in the planet's oceans, and climate models have been accurately predicting their warming.
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/02/earths-oceans-are-routinely-breaking-heat-records/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #31 on: March 04, 2019, 07:57:58 PM »
Oceans getting warmer is one thing, but heatwaves multiplying is somewhat more scary

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/04/heatwaves-sweeping-oceans-like-wildfires-scientists-reveal

Heatwaves sweeping oceans ‘like wildfires’, scientists reveal
Extreme temperatures destroy kelp, seagrass and corals – with alarming impacts for humanity

Quote
The research found heatwaves are becoming more frequent, prolonged and severe, with the number of heatwave days tripling in the last couple of years studied. In the longer term, the number of heatwave days jumped by more than 50% in the 30 years to 2016, compared with the period of 1925 to 1954.

As heatwaves have increased, kelp forests, seagrass meadows and coral reefs have been lost. These foundation species are critical to life in the ocean. They provide shelter and food to many others, but have been hit on coasts from California to Australia to Spain.

“You have heatwave-induced wildfires that take out huge areas of forest, but this is happening underwater as well,” said Dan Smale at the Marine Biological Association in Plymouth, UK, who led the research published in Nature Climate Change. “You see the kelp and seagrasses dying in front of you. Within weeks or months they are just gone, along hundreds of kilometres of coastline.”
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dnem

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #32 on: March 04, 2019, 09:05:37 PM »
Does that figure imply that El Nino is becoming more frequent?

gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #33 on: March 04, 2019, 09:39:12 PM »
Does that figure imply that El Nino is becoming more frequent?
Not necessarily, but the graph in the article implies that the effect of an El Nino is increasing.
Also, the graph implies that ocean heatwaves frequency gradually increasing in non El Nino years.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #34 on: March 04, 2019, 09:51:34 PM »
And global ocean heat content updated...

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/index.html

Note how much heat heading below 700 metres.
Also note how 0-100 metres getting a bit warm.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Ocean temperatures
« Reply #35 on: March 07, 2019, 04:59:49 PM »
Warming Accelerating in South Pacific Ocean Bottom Waters
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-deep-robots-south-pacific-ocean.html

New research analyzing data from deep-diving ocean robots and research cruises shows that the coldest, near-bottom South Pacific waters originating from Antarctica are warming three times faster than they were in the 1990s.

... The ship-based data show that deep ocean temperatures rose an average rate of 1-thousandth of a degree Celsius per year between the 1990s and the 2000s and that rate doubled to 2-thousandths of a degree per year between the 2000s and the 2010s. The Deep Argo floats reveal a tripling of the initial warming rate to 3-thousandths of a degree per year over the past four-plus years.

This warming rate of near-bottom temperatures is only a fraction of that of the surface ocean, but is striking for an area of the ocean long considered more stable.

Sarah G. Purkey et al. Unabated Bottom Water Warming and Freshening in the South Pacific Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (2019).

Quote
... Warming is consistently found across all sections and their occupations within each basin, demonstrating the abyssal warming is monotonic, basin‐wide, and multi‐decadal.

Gregory C. Johnson et al. Deep Argo quantifies bottom water warming rates in the Southwest Pacific Basin, Geophysical Research Letters (2019).
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