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Stephan

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Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« on: October 03, 2019, 03:46:44 PM »
NOAA has opened a new site within its website https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_n2o/

It shows the actual [delayed by four months] concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O) and it seems to be updated once a month (like the trends in CH4 site)
May 2019:     331.7 ppb
May 2018:     330.7 ppb
Last updated: September 18, 2019
____________
The website also includes the annual averages and the annual increase rates:
The annual increase rate May 2019 of 1.0 ppb is slightly below the 2018 average increase (1.17 ppb).
The average increase rate of 2001-2009 was 0.74 ppb.
The average increase rate of 2010-2018 was 0.98 ppb.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2019, 06:21:26 PM »
After having downloaded and processed the data I show you the measured values and the 12-month running mean (upper picture) and the derivative of the 12-month running mean (expressed as increase rate, lower picture). Interestingly the increase rate seems to change in waves with a frequency of several years. I have no clue where this behaviour comes from. Does anyone have a clue?
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kassy

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2019, 07:10:16 PM »
Interesting.

And no clue about the pattern but maybe we just don´t have enough years?

Nearly two third is natural but i don´t think we have a good list of relative contributions.

Most of the N2O emitted into the atmosphere, from natural and anthropogenic sources, is produced by microorganisms such as bacteria and fungi in soils and oceans.[97] Soils under natural vegetation are an important source of nitrous oxide, accounting for 60% of all naturally produced emissions. Other natural sources include the oceans (35%) and atmospheric chemical reactions (5%)

I think it will be quite a bit of work to explain the pattern (if it is real).

And the simple explanation might be ongoing warming promoting more emissions from soil and oceans over time while longer term patterns like ENSO and many others messing up the graph. 


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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2019, 10:34:52 PM »
The average value for June 2019 is available now:
June 2019:     331.8 ppb
June 2018:     330.7 ppb
Last updated: October 05, 2019
Annual increase a tiny bit higher than in May...

N2O has a 298-fold effect as GHG than CO2. The the June 2019 CO2 equivalent of 332 ppb N2O is 99 ppm, around a quarter of the CO2 effect and therefore not negligible.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2019, 10:41:31 PM by Stephan »
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2019, 09:15:39 PM »
The July averages are available:
July 2019:     331.9 ppb
July 2018:     330.7 ppb
Last updated: November 05, 2019
Annual increase of 1.2 ppb is a tiny bit higher than in June...
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kassy

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2019, 07:14:41 PM »
Amazing what you can do with actual measurements.  :o

Nitrogen fertilizers are incredibly efficient, but they make climate change a lot worse

...

Conventional analysis of N2O emissions from human activities are estimated from various indirect sources. This include country-by-country reporting, global nitrogen fertilizer production, the areal extent of nitrogen-fixing crops and the use of manure fertilizers.

Our study instead used actual atmospheric concentrations of N2O from dozens of monitoring stations all over the world. We then used atmospheric modeling that explains how air masses move across and between continents to infer the expected emissions of specific regions.

We found global N2O emissions have increased over the past two decades and the fastest growth has been since 2009. China and Brazil are two countries that stand out. This is associated with a spectacular increase in the use of nitrogen fertilizers and the expansion of nitrogen-fixing crops such as soybean.

We also found the emissions reported for those two countries, based on a methodology developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are significantly lower than those inferred from N2O levels in the atmosphere over those regions.

This mismatch seems to arise from the fact that emissions in those regions are proportionally higher than the use of nitrogen fertilizers and manure. This is a departure from the linear relationship used to report emissions by most countries.

There appears to be a level of nitrogen past which plants can no longer effectively use it. Once that threshold is passed in croplands, N2O emissions grow exponentially.

...

all future emission scenarios consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement require N2O emissions to stop growing and, in most cases, to decline—between 10% and 30% by mid-century.

Interestingly, emissions from the U.S. and Europe have not grown for over two decades, yet crop yields across these regions increased or remained steady.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-nitrogen-fertilizers-incredibly-efficient-climate.html
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2019, 08:38:57 PM »
As for CO2 and CH4 also the N2O concentration information was updated:

August 2019:     331.9 ppb
August 2018:     330.9 ppb
Last updated: December 05, 2019

This is an annual increase of 1.0 ppb, roughly the same value as in the last months.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2019, 01:00:09 AM »
Where is the new N2O coming from?
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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2019, 08:03:14 AM »
Tom, please read kassy's post directly above. I think you'll find answers there. Why didn't you check it out yourself via Google or realclimate etc?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #9 on: December 16, 2019, 12:24:50 PM »
Oh, it’s fertilizers. Sorry.
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nanning

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2019, 08:54:13 AM »
This link to a COP25 interview by pietkuip also mentions large NOx emissions from Utqiaġvik (Barrow), Alaska.

According to Peter Carter (interview at COP25), the Barrow data indicate emissions from methane hydrates:
https://youtu.be/oa13KrOvE2s?t=1182
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2020, 04:57:46 PM »
The monthly average of September 2019 is available:

September 2019:     332.0 ppb
September 2018:     331.1 ppb
Last updated: January 05, 2020

This is an annual increase of 0.9 ppb, slightly less as in the last months.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #12 on: February 08, 2020, 10:57:40 PM »
The global average mean of N2O for October 2019 has been published by NOAA:

October 2019:     332.1 ppb
October 2018:     331.3 ppb
Last updated: February 05, 2020

The annual increase is 0.8 ppb. It is clearly at the lower end of the range.
I set Jan 2001 = 100 as index. October 2019 has 105.0 - comparable to the increase in methane concentration.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2020, 08:37:26 PM »
An update is available for N2O as well.

November 2019:     332.3 ppb
November 2018:     331.5 ppb
Last updated: March 05, 2020

This value represents a CO2 eq. of 87.7 ppm.

The annual increase is 0.8 ppb. It is clearly at the lower end of the range.
I set Jan 2001 = 100 as index. November 2019 has 105.1 - comparable to the increase in methane concentration.
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kassy

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #14 on: March 24, 2020, 12:52:49 PM »
A Plant in Florida Emits Quantities of a Greenhouse Gas Nearly 300 Times More Potent Than Carbon Dioxide

Ascend’s sprawling chemical complex north of Pensacola releases nitrous oxide into the atmosphere equivalent to the emissions from 2.1 million cars per year.

The plant, owned by Houston-based Ascend Performance Materials, makes adipic acid, one of two main ingredients for nylon 6,6, a strong, durable plastic used in everything from stockings to carpeting, seat belts and air bags.

...

N2O, is nearly 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas. N2O emissions totaling 33,046 metric tons from the plant in 2018, the most recent year for which data is available, equal the annual greenhouse gas emissions of 2.1 million automobiles

The plant, a subsidiary of SK Capital Partners, a private equity firm that says it generates $9 billion in annual revenue, is the largest point source of nitrous oxide emissions in the country. Its number one ranking as a nitrous oxide polluter illustrates how companies often choose to leave untouched greenhouse gas emissions they aren't required by law to abate, even when proven systems exist to eliminate those emissions. In the case of nitrous oxide emissions, DuPont and its global competitors, alarmed by N2O's potency as a greenhouse gas, joined forces almost 30 years ago and developed technologies to abate virtually all of their pollution.

...

Nitrous oxide stays in the atmosphere for 114 years, longer than a human lifetime, yet shorter than the centuries that carbon dioxide can remain in the atmosphere. 

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/23032020/plant-florida-emits-vast-quantities-greenhouse-gas-nearly-300-times-more-potent-carbon

This is so preventable.

Technically his could be solved today if people wanted too.

We need some global rules for N20 and SF6 (it also has a category for use which has tech solutions so they just need to be non optional).
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TerryM

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #15 on: March 24, 2020, 07:00:30 PM »
^^
Ramen


Perhaps as condition for reopening after CV19 has run its course, a pollution solution might be integrated into any available loan or grant package.
Terry

kassy

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #16 on: March 24, 2020, 07:06:10 PM »
Not conditional, it´s a must for our kids. There is no immunity for climate change.
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nanning

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #17 on: March 25, 2020, 04:10:34 AM »
^^
Ramen!
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2020, 08:52:34 PM »
An update is available for N2O as well.

December 2019:     332.3 ppb
December 2018:     331.5 ppb
Last updated: April 05, 2020

The 2019 average is thus 331.9 ppb, 1.0 ppb above the 2018 average.

This value represents a CO2 eq. of 87.8 ppm.

The annual increase is 0.7 ppb. It is clearly at the lower end of the range, but not unprecedented.
I set Jan 2001 = 100 as index. December 2019 has 105.1 - comparable to the increase in methane concentration.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2020, 10:28:30 PM »
It is the fifth of the new month and so the average values of the "NOAA gases" are available.
Here is the value of N2O:

January 2020:     332.5 ppb
January 2019:     331.8 ppb
Last updated: May 05, 2020

This value represents a CO2 eq. of 87.8 ppm.

The annual increase is 0.7 ppb. It is clearly at the lower end of the range, but not unprecedented.
I set Jan 2001 = 100 as index. January 2020 has 105.1 - comparable to the increase in methane concentration.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #20 on: June 05, 2020, 09:30:13 PM »
It is the fifth of the new month and so the average values of the "NOAA gases" are available.
Here is the value of N2O:

February 2020:     332.6 ppb
February 2019:     331.8 ppb
Last updated: June 05, 2020

The annual increase of 0.8 ppb remains in the lower half of the increase rates of the last years.

I set an index = 100 to the average of 1980 [301.1 ppb]. February 2020 has a relative value of 110.5 compared to 1980.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #21 on: July 06, 2020, 09:08:57 PM »
It is the fifth of the new month and so the average values of the "NOAA gases" are available.
Here is the value of N2O:

March 2020:     332.8 ppb
March 2019:     331.7 ppb
Last updated: July 05, 2020

The annual increase of 1.1 ppb has risen back to the values we were used to in the last years.

I set an index = 100 to the average of 1980 [301.1 ppb]. March 2020 has a relative value of 110.5 compared to 1980.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #22 on: August 06, 2020, 07:31:35 PM »
It is the fifth of the new month and so the average values of the "NOAA gases" are available.
Here is the value of N2O:

April 2020:     332.7 ppb
April 2019:     331.6 ppb
Last updated: August 05, 2020

The annual increase of 1.1 ppb is identical to March 2020.

I set an index = 100 to the average of 1980 [301.1 ppb]. April 2020 has a relative value of 110.5 compared to 1980.

Attached a graph of the development of atmospheric N2O since around 1980. Please not that prior to 2000 only two values per year exist - therefore the annual cycling is not visible in that part of the graph.
Slight exponential behaviour - please compare the values with the linear trend line.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2020, 08:39:25 PM »
Finally, the latest NOAA monthly average for N2O.

May 2020:     332.8 ppb
May 2019:     331.6 ppb
Last updated: September 05, 2020

The annual increase is 1.2 ppb. This is higher than the annual increase of most of the last years.

I set an index = 100 to the average of 1980 [301.1 ppb]. May 2020 has a relative value of 110.5 compared to 1980.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #24 on: October 06, 2020, 08:32:08 PM »
The latest NOAA monthly average for N2O is available.

June 2020:     332.9 ppb
June 2019:     331.7 ppb
Last updated: October 05, 2020

The annual increase is 1.2 ppb. This is higher than the annual increase of most of the last years.

I set an index = 100 to the average of 1980 [301.1 ppb]. June 2020 has a relative value of 110.6 compared to 1980.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2020, 07:17:36 PM »
Finally, the latest NOAA monthly average for N2O.

July 2020:     333.1 ppb
July 2019:     331.9 ppb
Last updated: November 05, 2020

The annual increase is 1.2 ppb. This is higher than the annual increase of most of the last years.

I set an index = 100 to the average of 1980 [301.1 ppb]. July 2020 has a relative value of 110.6 compared to 1980.

See attached graph. Please note the slightly exponential behaviour of the N2O concentration.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #26 on: December 08, 2020, 09:43:35 PM »
The latest NOAA monthly average for N2O has been published.

August 2020:     333.2 ppb
August 2019:     331.9 ppb
Last updated: December 05, 2020

The annual increase is 1.3 ppb. This is higher than the annual increase of most of the last years.

I set an index = 100 to the average of 1980 [301.1 ppb]. August 2020 has a relative value of 110.7 compared to 1980.
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kassy

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #27 on: December 09, 2020, 09:27:25 PM »
These days it is also a consumer drug. Just can´t get over how insane that is.
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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #28 on: December 10, 2020, 12:22:18 PM »
You mean like laughing gas? I had that once at the dentist. Thought I was on an alien planet, spiral galaxy above my head, while a giant caterpillar alien attacked my mouth. Afterwards I laughed my head off.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #29 on: January 12, 2021, 10:28:48 PM »
The latest NOAA monthly average for N2O has been published.

September 2020:     333.3 ppb
September 2019:     331.9 ppb
Last updated: January 05, 2021

The annual increase is 1.4 ppb. This is (tied with some other months in 2015 and 2019) the highest ever recorded increase since measurements started and wayyy above the 10 y average of 1.00 ppb/a.

I set an index = 100 to the average of 1980 [301.1 ppb]. September 2020 has a relative value of 110.7 compared to 1980.
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Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #30 on: February 05, 2021, 09:02:42 PM »
Here are the latest N2O values from NOAA.

October 2020:     333.4 ppb
October 2019:     332.1 ppb
October 2010:     323.5 ppb
Last updated: February 05, 2021

The annual increase of 1.3 ppb is higher than average (0.99 ppb/a in the last decade).

I set an index = 100 to the average of 1980 [301.1 ppb]. October 2020 has a relative value of 110.7 compared to 1980.
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crandles

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #31 on: February 15, 2021, 08:24:39 PM »
Nitrous Oxide in 2020.

I was looking at the N2O trend at the Barrow Observatory and noticed the 2020 figures followed a much straighter trend than the more wavy trend of previous years.
Mona Loa is similar, South pole looks like its been doing this for the last 2 years.

Is it due to better equipment / methodology or is there another reason for the tighter data sets?

Appreciate it someone can point me in the right direction.

Image would appear to be from
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=SPO&program=ccgg&type=ts
(choose Nitrous oxide (N2O) from drop down box, optionally select radial buttion "some" and years then click submit.)

eg South Pole station data


2019 and 2020 looks very smooth
2017 and 2018 very noisy
earlier in between for noise

Barrow possibly following similar but maybe not quite as clear a pattern but with noisy period being 2018 and 2019

« Last Edit: February 15, 2021, 08:41:32 PM by crandles »

Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #32 on: February 15, 2021, 09:58:56 PM »
I have no idea about the different "smootheness" of the data. This difference is not explained on the website. But it seems that some years are less scattered than others.
What they say is that only the blue spots are representative. Green crosses may represent poorly mixed air masses influenced by local or regional anthropogenic sources or strong local biospheric sources or sinks. The values in orange are preliminary and may be subject to further change after re-analyses and re-calibrations. The fact that they are preliminary does not mean they will be less smooth after re-analysis.
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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #33 on: February 15, 2021, 11:24:52 PM »
It's easier to see just how much smoother it got if you only plot the most recent few years. Looking around for any information about what is happening, I did find this recent paper—unfortunately it's behind Nature's bloody paywall:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2780-0

Here's the most recent four years of N2O from Barrow:

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #34 on: February 16, 2021, 12:14:11 AM »
Thank you for reposting here crandles

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #35 on: February 16, 2021, 02:28:59 AM »
I think I've found the reason. The NOAA's GMD has a new  MAGGIC-3 system  for measuring discrete flask-air  samples.  Precisions have improved from  ~ 0.4 ppb to ~ 0.05  ppb.

See second page of the latest newsletter

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/newsletters/newsletter_2020.pdf

kassy

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #36 on: February 24, 2021, 07:11:45 PM »
This research might be useful if we need to change the trend:

Synthesis of a rare metal complex of nitrous oxide opens new vistas for the degradation of a potent greenhouse gas

Like its chemical relative carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and the dominant ozone-depleting substance. Strategies for limiting its emissions and its catalytic decomposition with metals are being developed. A study indicates that nitrous oxide can bind to metals similarly to carbon dioxide, which helps to design new complexes with even stronger bonding. This could allow the use of nitrous oxide in synthetic chemistry.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210222124602.htm
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #37 on: February 24, 2021, 09:54:16 PM »
This is the direct link to the article in Angewandte Chemie: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/anie.202011301
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

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Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« Reply #38 on: March 05, 2021, 08:02:39 PM »
It is the 5th of a new month, time for NOAA to publish the latest monthly average of several GHG.

November 2020:     333.6 ppb
November 2019:     332.3 ppb
November 2010:     323.7 ppb
Last updated: March 05, 2021

The annual increase of 1.3 ppb is higher than average (1.00 ppb/a in the last decade).

I set an index = 100 to the average of 1980 [301.1 ppb]. November 2020 has a relative value of 110.8 compared to 1980.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change