Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Midterm American elections 2022  (Read 630 times)

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4386
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 632
  • Likes Given: 613
Midterm American elections 2022
« on: December 23, 2020, 03:40:24 AM »
My understanding is that when the White House changes Party, the new Party always loses seats in Congress and maybe State Houses. Is this true?
Anyway, discuss the next national ordeal here.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

The Walrus

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1014
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 84
  • Likes Given: 119
Re: Midterm American elections 2022
« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2020, 02:13:48 PM »
My understanding is that when the White House changes Party, the new Party always loses seats in Congress and maybe State Houses. Is this true?
Anyway, discuss the next national ordeal here.

Yes, this is true, and not just when the White House changes party.  The party that wins the Presidency almost always loses seats in the midterm elections. Over the past 5 midterm elections in which a Democrat sat in the White House, the Democrats lost an average of 28 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate.  For Republicans, it was 15 seats in the House, and 2 in the Senate.  The Senate is much more variable, as it depends on which Senators are up for re-election that year.  There are a few exceptions.  In both 1998 (Clinton) and 2002 (Bush), the party in power gained seats in both houses.  That is not the norm, as the only other year that the party in power won seats in the House during a midterm election was 1934! 

Most recently, during the first midterm in the Obama presidency, the Democrats lost 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats.  In 2018, the Republicans lost 41 House seats, but gained 2 Senate seats (only 9 of the 35 seats up for election were Republican held, and many of the Democratic seats were in states that Trump carried).  Therefore, expect the Republicans to gain seats in both chambers in 2022.

Sciguy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1674
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 201
  • Likes Given: 163
Re: Midterm American elections 2022
« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2020, 06:24:52 PM »
A google seach leads to a Wikipedia article that answers your question.  Try it and post your answer.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4386
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 632
  • Likes Given: 613
Re: Midterm American elections 2022
« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2020, 07:52:25 PM »
Thanks, Ken.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election
Quote
Midterm elections are sometimes regarded as a referendum on the sitting president's and/or incumbent party's performance.[5][6]
The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections[7]: since World War II the President's party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House, and an average of four seats in the Senate.
Moreover, since direct public midterm elections were introduced, in only seven of those (under presidents Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Donald Trump) has the President's party gained seats in the House or the Senate, and of those only two (1934, Franklin D. Roosevelt and 2002, George W. Bush) have seen the President's party gain seats in both houses.

And also from Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_elections

Also, https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20221108T00&p0=417&font=cursive
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 612
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Midterm American elections 2022
« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2020, 11:08:55 PM »
This is good:

https://www.rawstory.com/radical-centrism/

Quote
...A rational observer might assume that the victory of a reactionary psychopath who upended all normative assumptions about politics would have introduced a little humility and introspection into the [Democratic] centrist consensus. That observer had best not hold her breath.

Biden hasn't even taken the oath of office, and the centrist crew, including Obama and Biden himself, are blaming the left for Democratic losses in the Senate, House and state legislatures, citing the activist call to "defund the police" as the primary reason for the party's poor down-ballot performance. There is no data to support this conclusion. If anything, the available evidence actually suggests that candidates with progressive positions outperformed the so-called moderates.

Lack of evidence has never stopped the centrists before. Now they've reached a point where information is an unnecessary impediment to their effort to overwhelm all legitimate political or ideological debate with a mélange of platitudes and bromides...

The RAND Corporation — hardly an advocate of socialism or Marxism — recently reported that from 1975 to 2018, the top 1 percent, taking advantage of tax policies, corporate welfare and other built-in benefits, took in $47 trillion — that's trillion, with 12 zeroes – that otherwise would have been distributed among the bottom 90 percent...

But the whole thing is great (and it's clearly opinion, so please spare me any comments about how this site is 'biased'...)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."