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sidd

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #300 on: April 18, 2020, 08:03:37 AM »
Kruse at politico on Trump:

"Trump has built an astonishingly consistent record of surviving crises, of dodging the comeuppance everyone assumes is coming his way, and then turning seeming calamity into his next great opportunity—and emerging not just intact but emboldened."

"Trump’s aghast critics see a president backed into a corner, desperate and unmanned, in a frantic, final freefall. But people who’ve watched him for years, who’ve witnessed the dizzying pivots, the great escapes, the gobsmacking victories in the face of arguably more unforgiving audiences than American voters—what they see is Trump deploying tools and tactics that have worked before and could work again. "

"Because the contest at hand is not only between Trump and the ravages of Covid-19, or Trump and “Democrat” governors, or Trump and any of the reporters spread out in the seats in the briefing room these evenings at the White House. All of it is part of the larger war for Trump between the numbers and the narrative."

"he’s pretty darn media-savvy, and he’s working this right now almost brilliantly to the extent that he realizes the value of putting himself out there every day"

"He’s spinning this every day now: 2 million would have died if it wasn’t for me"

"Attention can be good or bad, but a central gambit of the life of Trump is that that’s actually not true. That it’s all good. That attention is power. That if you’re watching, he’s winning."

" “Americans are suckers for a good story,” he said. “Donald Trump is going to give ‘em a good story.” "

" Don’t believe Trump can win? “Talk to President Hillary Clinton,” "

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/17/donald-trump-escape-crisis-bankruptcy-coronavirus-casino-trumpology-183513

I've been watching Trump since the 80s when he was just another brash young new york tax cheat. Fascination of the horrible, i suppose. His rise tells more about society than himself. If you're watching, he's winning.

sidd

kassy

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #301 on: April 18, 2020, 01:06:37 PM »
re 299: you could argue he other way if you would think about the supreme court?

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Neven

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #302 on: April 18, 2020, 03:00:08 PM »
Let's hope the Green party doesn't take it away again from the Democrats like they did in 2016. Ironically, that would be very bad for the climate if Trump got reelected with the help from the Green Party...

Except that Jill Stein took more votes away from Trump than Clinton, and that a lot of people who voted for Stein, would've stayed at home otherwise.

But even if what you say, is true, this means that if the Green Party is that powerful, maybe the Democratic nominee would be wise to try and win their votes by offering them something? They can't, because concentrated wealth comes first.

Talking about irony.
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The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #303 on: April 18, 2020, 04:03:21 PM »
If i was a US voter, voting third party might be the way i would go.

If you really want to generate leverage, a third party needs to have substantial support (15-20% at least). Dems and Reps both must be scared loosing too many votes this way. This is the only way you get them to listen.

The downside with this approach is that it might (likely will) help the orange fascist to get reelected.
The Tea Party completely changed the GOP, so what you need is a very progressive congress. Voting third party is a wasted vote. I do think a third party will decide the election. Most likely the Libertarian party. I think they will get a lot of votes from disgruntled republicans who can't vote for a Democrat.

Let's hope the Green party doesn't take it away again from the Democrats like they did in 2016. Ironically, that would be very bad for the climate if Trump got reelected with the help from the Green Party...

The Green Party had very little effect on the election.  The only state that Clinton had a good chance to win without Jill Stein in the race would have been Michigan.  Two other states were decided by less than the total number of votes cast for the Green Party.  The Green vote would need to split 87/13 in favor of Clinton, for her to win Wisconsin, and 95/5 to win Pennsylvania.  I seriously doubt that Clinton could possibly have won that great of a share of the Green vote.  The Libertarian party candidate, Gary Johnson, received three times the number of vote as Jill Stein, and had a greater effect on the outcome.  If you add all the Libertarian votes to Trump, and all the Green votes to Clinton, Trump would win the popular vote!  As I stated earlier, if the Libertarian voters had not gotten cold feet, and switched over to Trump at the last minute, Clinton would be president now.

Freegrass

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #304 on: April 18, 2020, 06:41:08 PM »
Let's hope the Green party doesn't take it away again from the Democrats like they did in 2016. Ironically, that would be very bad for the climate if Trump got reelected with the help from the Green Party...

Except that Jill Stein took more votes away from Trump than Clinton, and that a lot of people who voted for Stein, would've stayed at home otherwise.

But even if what you say, is true, this means that if the Green Party is that powerful, maybe the Democratic nominee would be wise to try and win their votes by offering them something? They can't, because concentrated wealth comes first.

Talking about irony.
You're arguing politics in a binary vote...

You're either with us, or against us... Remember that one?

All those who went out to vote in 2016 for the Green party hated Hillary so much that they lost sight of the consequences of a Trump presidency...

I vote extreme left, for the Belgian marxists party PVDA. But in my heart I'm a social liberal. Basic income for all and small government. But Belgium isn't America... We don't have a two party system here.

Should there be a more party system in America? HELL YEAH! But that's not todays fight...

What American progressives need now is a progressive congress. The president has always been a puppet, so vote for the right puppet masters!
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #305 on: April 18, 2020, 06:46:49 PM »
Basic income for all and small government.

Those are contradictory, mate. :P

Quote
Should there be a more party system in America? HELL YEAH! But that's not todays fight...

I tend to agree (at least i was until recently), but what's the timeline and strategy? What's the leverage?

Freegrass

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #306 on: April 18, 2020, 07:04:02 PM »
If i was a US voter, voting third party might be the way i would go.

If you really want to generate leverage, a third party needs to have substantial support (15-20% at least). Dems and Reps both must be scared loosing too many votes this way. This is the only way you get them to listen.

The downside with this approach is that it might (likely will) help the orange fascist to get reelected.
The Tea Party completely changed the GOP, so what you need is a very progressive congress. Voting third party is a wasted vote. I do think a third party will decide the election. Most likely the Libertarian party. I think they will get a lot of votes from disgruntled republicans who can't vote for a Democrat.

Let's hope the Green party doesn't take it away again from the Democrats like they did in 2016. Ironically, that would be very bad for the climate if Trump got reelected with the help from the Green Party...

The Green Party had very little effect on the election.  The only state that Clinton had a good chance to win without Jill Stein in the race would have been Michigan.  Two other states were decided by less than the total number of votes cast for the Green Party.  The Green vote would need to split 87/13 in favor of Clinton, for her to win Wisconsin, and 95/5 to win Pennsylvania.  I seriously doubt that Clinton could possibly have won that great of a share of the Green vote.  The Libertarian party candidate, Gary Johnson, received three times the number of vote as Jill Stein, and had a greater effect on the outcome.  If you add all the Libertarian votes to Trump, and all the Green votes to Clinton, Trump would win the popular vote!  As I stated earlier, if the Libertarian voters had not gotten cold feet, and switched over to Trump at the last minute, Clinton would be president now.
I don't want to relitigate the last elections. Smarter people than me wrote heaps of books about that.

I think the Libertarian party will play a key role in this years elections. More so than the Green party, because the trouble is on the right! Those who can't vote for Trump, or a democrat, will vote Libertarian, and IMHO that will be the birth of a viable third party in America.

You'll have the extreme right wing fascists - like we had here for a long time in Europe - voting for the Trump party, and "moderates" voting for the libertarian party. This leaves the door open for the Democratic party to become more progressive.

The Green party would kill that dream...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #307 on: April 18, 2020, 07:17:44 PM »
Basic income for all and small government.
Those are contradictory, mate. :P
Not really. In Belgium we have unemployment money, pensions, disability, sick leave, and so many more payments. All those will disappear with basic income. You could get rid of the entire administration that keeps track of all those unemployed or sick people. You just give people money, good (mental)healthcare, and education. For anything else, people will be free from government oversight.

But now we're going OT again...  ;)
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

wili

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #308 on: April 18, 2020, 08:12:55 PM »
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/the-gop-has-become-a-death-cult/

GOP has become a death cult

American conservatism—the so-called “culture of life”—worships annihilation.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #309 on: April 22, 2020, 06:31:24 PM »
So, the GOP is overtaking the Dems on the left by airing the 'Pelosi ice-cream' ad.

The DNC is overtaking the GOP on the right by airing the 'scapegoat China' ad.

And a conservative group is airing anti Trump ads, endorsing Joe Biden.

This might seem Kafkaesque at the first look. Looking at Biden's policies though, this makes total sense. The US can still have its structural racism, its libertarian economy, its oligarchy with a more likable face. Little will change with Biden, but he at least doesn't speak the silent parts out loud all the time.

Doh!

Pmt111500

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #310 on: April 23, 2020, 05:17:36 AM »
Well, stealing a Kenyan Nursery Song is par on course in US Elections


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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #311 on: April 23, 2020, 12:42:21 PM »
Pmt111500

That's another entry in my "Evolution of the Lion Sleeps Tonight" post back on the Good Music thread!
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 12:55:40 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #312 on: May 01, 2020, 06:27:53 PM »
An interesting development is occurring with the IBD/TIPP polling.  Biden and Trump are in a dead heat.  Many may not remember, but this is the same poll that showed Clinton and Trump in a dead heat on the eve of the 2016 election.  A month ago, this same poll had Biden ahead by 6 points. 

Ken Feldman

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #313 on: May 01, 2020, 08:50:05 PM »
The shape of the stimulus package to recover from the recession would probably be very different if the GOP holds the White House and Senate than if the Democrats can take those offices.  Consider whether the government decides to invest in renewables or instead nationalize (I'm sorry, take an equity interest in) oil companies.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/25/joe-biden-green-stimulus-207848

Quote
Biden wants a new stimulus 'a hell of a lot bigger' than $2 trillion

In an interview, the 2020 candidate courts the progressive left by calling for a huge, new green infrastructure bill—while hammering banks, and Trump.

Joe Biden wants a more progressive approach to economic stimulus legislation than Washington has taken so far, including much stricter oversight of the Trump administration, much tougher conditions on business bailouts and long-term investments in infrastructure and climate that have so far been largely absent from congressional debates.

Quote
Still, Biden suggested that after four rounds of legislation designed primarily to stanch the economic bleeding, the next round should include more forward-looking investments that could help the economy start to recover and grow once the virus is contained. He suggested a “trillion-dollar infrastructure program that can be implemented really rapidly,” as well as “dealing with environmental things that create good-paying jobs.”

Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have suggested that “green stimulus” would be a nonstarter with Republicans, but Biden said investments in light rail, clean drinking water, and half a million electric vehicle chargers on the nation’s highways could help retool the economy for the future.

sidd

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #314 on: June 03, 2020, 06:37:13 AM »
Biden on the Grand Canyon: (this is not the onion)

" consultants have suggested that an enormous virtual version of their candidate for president could be projected over the Grand Canyon."

"exclusive musical content from some of the biggest musical artists in the game at these, driving eyeballs"

“Give America a giant avatar of President Obama introducing another avatar of Joe Biden while they stand amidst a digital rendering of America through the ages,”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/joe-biden-fortnite-hologram-democratic-convention-grand-canyon-travis-scott-a9510001.html

sidd

Pmt111500

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #315 on: June 03, 2020, 10:26:11 PM »
Trump is so going to win this election. Pouring tear gas over non-voting demonstrators is of no consequence.

Phoenix

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #316 on: June 11, 2020, 05:05:39 PM »
Latest election outlook per RCP.

Biden +8.1 nationally

Dems 214-190 in the House w/ 31 tossups.

GOP 49-46 in the Senate w/ 5 tossups (in case of 50/50 split, VP determines which party gets the chairmanships)

Biden is cruising, this election is all about Trump and a few key senate races in Montana, Michigan, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Maine.

Like Biden, Democrats lead by 8 points nationally. The only way the GOP maintains power is through the byzantine Senate quasi-apartheid system. States w/ less than 1M people get the same representation as California with ~ 40M people.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #317 on: June 12, 2020, 06:55:21 PM »
270towin has somewhat similar with Republicans 50, Democrats 46, and 4 tossups in the Senate.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/

While you may argue with the system, it was designed to prevent states like California from having too much influence.

Phoenix

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #318 on: June 14, 2020, 07:06:22 PM »
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/502623-ernst-challenger-leads-by-three-points-in-tight-iowa-senate-race

The Iowa senate seat is surprisingly competitive in a state Trump carried easily in 2016. The Democratic challenger is leading by 3 points in this poll.

The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #319 on: June 15, 2020, 12:54:36 AM »
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/502623-ernst-challenger-leads-by-three-points-in-tight-iowa-senate-race

The Iowa senate seat is surprisingly competitive in a state Trump carried easily in 2016. The Democratic challenger is leading by 3 points in this poll.

It is not surprising at all.  Obama carried Iowa in both elections by 9% and 6%.  Iowa was split in the previous two elections, supporting Bush in '04 and Gore in 200, but both were by less than 1%.  Clinton won Iowa in both his elections and Dukakis carried the state in 1988.  Overall, Democrats won the state six out of the past elections, even though Democrats only won the presidential in four of those elections.  During the past eight elections, Iowa has supported the Democratic candidate by an average of 4%.  Therefore, a 3% Democratic lead seems right in line with the averages.

Phoenix

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #320 on: June 15, 2020, 09:15:21 AM »
In the 270towin analysis that you shared above Walrus, this Iowa  seat is counted among the 50 projected to go to the GOP.

So. perhaps a Democrat leading this race is a surprise to somebody.

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #321 on: June 15, 2020, 03:41:26 PM »
I think the polls are showing a temporary bump for Democrats, as there is a huge virus crisis and civil unrest under a GOP administration. As the COVID restrictions break (for better or worse) and the protests subside, I think the GOP will get their lead back.
A single seed in the right place can sprout an entire forest.

The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #322 on: June 15, 2020, 09:03:13 PM »
In the 270towin analysis that you shared above Walrus, this Iowa  seat is counted among the 50 projected to go to the GOP.

So. perhaps a Democrat leading this race is a surprise to somebody.

Yes, but basing it solely on Trump's performance in 2016 seems a little short-sighted.

Freegrass

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #323 on: June 15, 2020, 10:08:37 PM »
Trump is so going to win this election. Pouring tear gas over non-voting demonstrators is of no consequence.
I'm not sure if you're serious, or just joking, but that's my fear as well... I already wrote this in the Biden thread, that there's one thing that gives me hope. Trump fucks up just about anything he tries to do. Last time he tried to lose, and he won. Now he's actually trying to win...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Freegrass

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #324 on: June 21, 2020, 02:01:48 AM »
Hardly any people showing up for the buffoon's rally.  ;D
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

interstitial

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #325 on: June 21, 2020, 04:14:47 PM »

Hardly any people showing up for the buffoon's rally.  ;D

The buffoon's is sad because he wasn't re energized by the crowd. ;D  I hope he suffers a record defeat.

blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #326 on: June 21, 2020, 04:27:41 PM »
No, it was crowded there indoors (the one you should avoid because of the deadly pandemic going around). Only the outdoor venue (the one you should definitely prefer because of the mentioned deadly pandemic) was empty. Ah, and for what i saw, no one was wearing a mask - goes without saying i guess.

Death cult! I bet you can get rich when you sell them the Kool-Aid for a hundred bucks. They want it so bad.

kassy

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #327 on: June 21, 2020, 06:53:40 PM »
Tik-Tok users and K-Pop fans were behind the smaller than expected numbers at US President Donald Trump's first campaign rally in months, social media users have claimed.

Mr Trump's campaign manager had blamed "radical" protesters and the media.

But political strategist Steve Schmidt said teenagers across the US ordered tickets without intending to turn up to ensure there would be empty seats.

The campaign had reported at least one million ticket requests for the event.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53129524
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blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #328 on: June 21, 2020, 06:56:48 PM »
The troll got trolled! Beautiful. 🖤

Phoenix

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #329 on: June 21, 2020, 07:10:51 PM »
The Kentucky primary will be a fiasco. They have cut polling locations from 3700 to 200 and have one location to serve an area of Louisville which serves 616,000 residents. That location is home to half the black voters in the state of Kentucky and we have a competitive black candidate in the Democratic senate primary....Charles Booker.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kentucky-cuts-polling-locations-angry-mob-long-lines-georgia-election-day-disaster-confusion-a9577501.html

This is so fu^%ed.

 >:( >:(

SteveMDFP

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #330 on: June 21, 2020, 07:15:46 PM »
Tik-Tok users and K-Pop fans were behind the smaller than expected numbers at US President Donald Trump's first campaign rally in months, social media users have claimed.

Mr Trump's campaign manager had blamed "radical" protesters and the media.

But political strategist Steve Schmidt said teenagers across the US ordered tickets without intending to turn up to ensure there would be empty seats.

The campaign had reported at least one million ticket requests for the event.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53129524
Twitter:

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"And I would have more followers show up, if it weren't for you meddling kids"
#TrumpMeltdown #tiktokteens #TulsaFlop



Freegrass

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #331 on: June 22, 2020, 01:47:13 AM »
Yes it's true that Tik-Tok users and others were responsible for fooling that orange idiot into thinking he would have a big crowd. But hard core supporters would have still shown up if they really wanted to see him. The fact that so few did show up had more to do with SARSII and the deflation of his campaign I think. People just weren't ready to die for that buffoon. Only the biggest idiots showed up, and even they weren't impressed with his performance. The atmosphere wasn't what it used to be... He's done! Especially when people that showed up for his rally start dying...

But now he's really becoming dangerous... What will he do to turn the tide? War is always an option...
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Phoenix

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #332 on: July 18, 2020, 11:10:15 PM »
Surging Democrats expand Senate targets to GOP states

https://apnews.com/269c5a18f098ec93e8a63fc460a78e0d

(excerpts from article for your efficient review...the article inexplicably does not mention the Senate races in Colorado and Maine which are GOP held seats. Maine is a coin flip and Colorado should be a lean toward the Democrat. The characterization of Arizona as a "difficult fight" is IMO, an understatement. It is a likely flip from R to D at this point.)

Democrats have at least a puncher’s chance..... in Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky and South Carolina.

They have an even shot at ousting GOP Sen. Steve Daines in Montana.... and long-shot hopes of retaining their most endangered senator, Doug Jones of Alabama.

Republican incumbents face legitimate challenges for two Senate seats in Georgia and difficult fights in Arizona and North Carolina.

Iowa GOP Sen. Joni Ernst faces a tough Democratic opponent in businesswoman Theresa Greenfield, while Republican Sen. John Cornyn is on alert against a Texas upset.


(Summary....the Senate is up for grabs. GOP has 53 seats at the moment and they likely regain the Alabama seat. That means the Dems need 4 pickups + a Biden win to demote McConnell. Dems favored to flip in AZ and CO. Tossups (6) in NC, GA (2), IA, ME, MT. If those split evenly, it's 51-49 Democrats. 53 would provide an important buffer as Democrats Manchin and Sinema are pretty unreliable).

blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #333 on: July 24, 2020, 07:58:03 PM »
Donald Trump is Drastically Underperforming His KEY Groups From 2016


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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #334 on: July 26, 2020, 11:27:44 AM »
A Bipartisan Group Secretly Gathered to Game Out a Contested Trump-Biden Election. It Wasn’t Pretty
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/25/nation/bipartisan-group-secretly-gathered-game-out-contested-trump-biden-election-it-wasnt-pretty/?outputType=amp

WASHINGTON — On the second Friday in June, a group of political operatives, former government and military officials, and academics quietly convened online for what became a disturbing exercise in the fragility of American democracy.

The group, which included Democrats and Republicans, gathered to game out possible results of the November election, grappling with questions that seem less far-fetched by the day: What if President Trump refuses to concede a loss, as he publicly hinted recently he might do? How far could he go to preserve his power? And what if Democrats refuse to give in?

“All of our scenarios ended in both street-level violence and political impasse,” said Rosa Brooks, a Georgetown law professor and former Defense Department official who co-organized the group known as the Transition Integrity Project. She described what they found in bleak terms: “The law is essentially ... it’s almost helpless against a president who’s willing to ignore it.”

Using a role-playing game that is a fixture of military and national security planning, the group envisioned a dark 11 weeks between Election Day and Inauguration Day, one in which Trump and his Republican allies used every apparatus of government — the Postal Service, state lawmakers, the Justice Department, federal agents, and the military — to hold onto power, and Democrats took to the courts and the streets to try to stop it.

... “He doesn’t have to win the election,” said Nils Gilman, a historian who leads research at a think tank called the Berggruen Institute and was an organizer of the exercise. “He just has to create a plausible narrative that he didn’t lose.”

It is a fear that has been stoked by the president himself, who has repeatedly warned, without offering evidence, of widespread fraud involving mail-in ballots — which voters are likely to use at unprecedented levels because the pandemic has made in-person voting a potential health risk — to cast doubt on the results of November’s election.

“I think mail-in voting is going to rig the election, I really do,” he told Fox News’ Chris Wallace last Sunday. When asked if he would accept the election results, he said: “I’ll have to see.”

Former vice president Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has taken to issuing foreboding warnings of his own. “This president is going to try to indirectly steal the election by arguing that mail-in ballots don’t work — they’re not real, they’re not fair,” he said at a fund-raiser on Thursday night. He has also mused publicly about Trump having to be escorted, forcibly if need be, from the White House.

That happened in one of the four scenarios the Transition Integrity Project gamed out, according to summaries of the exercises provided to The Boston Globe. But constitutional experts — and the game play — was less focused on the possibility of a cinematic, militarized intervention on Inauguration Day, which is a possibility many still consider remote, than the room the Constitution appears to leave for a disastrous and difficult transition if the incumbent does not accept a loss.

“When we started talking about this we got a lot of reactions — oh, you guys are so paranoid, don’t be ridiculous, this isn’t going to happen,” Brooks said.

Two things have happened since then: Trump has displayed increased willingness to challenge mail-in ballots, and his administration has deployed federal forces to quell protests in front of the White House and in Portland, Ore., and has threatened to do so in other cities.

“That has really shaken people,” Brooks said. “What was really a fringe idea has now become an anxiety that’s pretty widely shared.”

Brooks, Gilman, and others recruited a slate of players including a former swing state governor, a former White House chief of staff, and a former head of the Department of Homeland Security. They invited both Democrats and Republicans who they knew had concerns about Trump’s comments on the election; nearly 80 people in all were involved. The Republicans were described by participants as “never Trump” or “not Trump Republicans.”

They played using the so-called Chatham House Rules — in which participants can discuss what was said, but not who was there.

The game was elaborate. The participants took on the roles of the Trump campaign, the Biden campaign, relevant government officials, and the media —generally, Democrats played Democrats and Republicans played Republicans — and used a 10-sided die to determine whether a team succeeded in its attempted moves. The games are not meant to be predictive; rather, they are supposed to give people a sense of possible consequences in complex scenarios.

Each scenario involved a different election outcome: An unclear result on Election Day that looked increasingly like a Biden win as more ballots were counted; a clear Biden win in the popular vote and the Electoral College; an Electoral College win for Trump with Biden winning the popular vote by 5 percentage points; and a narrow Electoral College and popular vote victory for Biden.

In the scenarios, the team playing the Trump campaign often questioned the legitimacy of mail-in ballots, which often boosted Biden as they came in — shutting down post offices, pursuing litigation, and using right-wing media to amplify narratives about a stolen election.

To some participants, the game was a stark reminder of the power of incumbency.

“The more demonstrations there were, the more demands for recounts, the more legal challenges there were, the more funerals for democracy were held, the more Trump came across as the candidate of stability,” said Edward Luce, the US editor of the Financial Times, who played the role of a mainstream media reporter during one of the simulations. “Possession is nine-tenths of the law.”

In multiple scenarios, officials on both sides homed in on narrowly decided swing states with divided governments, such Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida, hoping to persuade officials there to essentially send two different results to Congress. If a state’s election is disputed, a legislature controlled by one party and governor of another each could send competing slates of electors backing their party’s candidate.

Both sides turned out massive street protests that Trump sought to control — in one scenario he invoked the Insurrection Act, which allows the president to use military forces to quell unrest. The scenario that began with a narrow Biden win ended with Trump refusing to leave the White House, burning government documents, and having to be escorted out by the Secret Service. (The team playing Biden in that scenario, meanwhile, sought to patch things up with Republicans by appointing moderate Republican governors, including Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, to Cabinet positions.)

The scenario that produced the most contentious dynamics, however, was the one in which Trump won the Electoral College — and thus, the election — but Biden won the popular vote by 5 percentage points. Biden’s team retracted his Election Night concession, fueled by Democrats angry at losing yet another election despite capturing the popular vote, as happened in 2000 and 2016. In the mock election, Trump sought to divide Democrats — at one point giving an interview to The Intercept, a left-leaning news outlet, saying Senator Bernie Sanders would have won if Democrats had nominated him. Meanwhile, Biden’s team sought to encourage large Western states to secede unless pro-Democracy reforms were made.

That scenario seemed highly far-fetched, but it envisioned a situation in which both sides may have incentives to contest the election.

“There is a narrative among activists in both parties that the loss must be illegitimate,” he said.

According to the Constitution, the presidency ends at noon on Jan. 20, at which point the newly inaugurated president becomes the commander in chief.

The games, ultimately, were designed to explore how difficult it could be to get there.

“The Constitution really has been a workable document in many respects because we have had people who more or less adhered to a code of conduct,” said retired Army Colonel Larry Wilkerson, a Republican and former chief of staff to Colin Powell who participated in games as an observer. “That seems to no longer to be the case. That changes everything.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Pmt111500

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #335 on: July 26, 2020, 03:06:08 PM »
Looks like some gamblers still believe there will be elections in the US this year. I think they should put up options of no elections due Covid emergency, due civil insurgency, whatever. They could give quite good odds on that and accept a presidential bid, so absolutely no rigging of bets could happen.
https://www.unibet.eu/betting/sports/filter/politics

blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #336 on: July 26, 2020, 03:55:44 PM »
Pmt, the pandemic is giving the filthy fascist a lot of possibilities to curb voter turnout and opens ways to manipulate. This is why i think there will be an election.

Just not a democratic one.

The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #337 on: July 26, 2020, 07:56:59 PM »
No election?  Keep Trump indefinitely?  No, there will be an election come November.  Nothing in the past; wars, unrest, depression, or pandemics have stopped them in the past.  The constitution stipulates than an election must be held.  The Elections have become increasingly fairer over the centuries, so I doubt this one will not be.  Mail-in voting will be no less fraudulent than current absentee balloting, even though there are those who believe this does not exist.  In-person turnout will likely drop dramatically, so results may not be known until well after election night.

blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #338 on: July 26, 2020, 08:15:35 PM »
The Elections have become increasingly fairer over the centuries

Gerrymandering, electoral college, voter suppression, closing voting places in black communities, elections on weekdays, voting machines instead of pencil and paper, etc, etc, etc.

The US is not democratic, never has been!

The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #339 on: July 26, 2020, 08:48:22 PM »

The US is not democratic, never has been!

Correct.  It is a Republic, whereby the populous elect representatives, who are supposed to repress them.  Instead they represent themselves.

Still.  It is better today that in previous times.

blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #340 on: July 26, 2020, 08:52:02 PM »
Instead they represent themselves.

Right, Walrus, forgot the most important point in my list: Corruption!

Quote
Still.  It is better today that in previous times.

Yeah, even women and black people are now allowed to vote. WOW!

Sorry for the snark, but i can't see progress, no matter how hard i look for it.

The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #341 on: July 26, 2020, 09:02:26 PM »
Instead they represent themselves.

Right, Walrus, forgot the most important point in my list: Corruption!

Quote
Still.  It is better today that in previous times.

Yeah, even women and black people are now allowed to vote. WOW!

Sorry for the snark, but i can't see progress, no matter how hard i look for it.

Well, at least you acknowledge that there is corruption.  There are many who disavow any fraud in the election system at all.  However, previous fraud was much worse.  Jim Crow laws prevented many
Blacks from voting for decades.  Gerrymandering and got buying has always existed.  What had disappeared is the political machines that ran many of the large cities.  Instances of pre-marked ballots, voter intimidation, and the infamous “cemetery” vote were widespread.  Without fraud, LBJ would have never gotten out if Texas.

blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #342 on: July 26, 2020, 09:18:28 PM »
Well, at least you acknowledge that there is corruption

Well, of course, i do! :)

This is why i was such a passionate Bernie supporter. I was of the opinion that a non-corrupt guy would be one of the first steps towards progress. The electorate opted for corruption BAU.

Sad! No progress possible.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #343 on: July 26, 2020, 09:40:09 PM »

The US is not democratic, never has been!

Correct.  It is a Republic, whereby the populous elect representatives, who are supposed to repress them.  Instead they represent themselves.

Still.  It is better today that in previous times.
Freudian slip, that, Walrus? "repress" them?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #344 on: July 26, 2020, 09:45:05 PM »
lol

vox_mundi

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #345 on: July 26, 2020, 11:34:43 PM »
Trump Is Putting On a Show in Portland
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/07/trump-putting-show-portland/167203/



The president is deploying the kind of performative authoritarianism that Vladimir Putin pioneered.

The very idea seems, on the face of it, sheer madness. In Portland, Oregon, federal security officers dressed for combat—wearing jungle-camouflage uniforms with unclear markings, carrying heavy weapons, using batons and tear gas—are patrolling the streets, making random arrests, throwing people into unmarked vans.

Unsurprisingly, these troops are making rudimentary mistakes. Instead of working with local leaders, they have antagonized them. Instead of coaxing people to go home, their behavior has caused more people to come out onto the streets. Instead of calming the situation, they are infuriating people. They have escalated the violence. They have made the situation worse.

... Welcome to the world of performative authoritarianism, a form of politics that reached new heights of sophistication in Russia over the past decade and has now arrived in the United States. Unlike 20th-century authoritarianism, this 21st-century, postmodern influence campaign does not require the creation of a total police state. Nor does it require complete control of information, or mass arrests. It can be carried out, instead, with a few media outlets and a few carefully targeted arrests.

... The chaos in Portland is not an accident. The chaos is the point.

The chaos is also a tactic, and now it will be put to use. Now that it has been deliberately escalated, the violence will provide pictures, footage, video clips, and other material for Trump’s media supporters, and eventually for his campaign advertisements. On Fox News, Sean Hannity has already denounced Portland as a “war zone.” Tucker Carlson has spoken of protesters as “mobs” who keep liberal Democrats in power. The next stage will implicate Joe Biden in this same story: The president’s aides have told journalists that Biden, if he wins, will “allow left-wing fascists to destroy America.” Protesters, mobs, chaos, fascists, the left, the “Dems”, Biden—they’re all one narrative. The Trump administration will show people pictures of its uniformed troops pushing back against them, restoring order with a strong hand. And it will use the kind of language that appeals to that part of the population that prizes safety over all else.

Students of modern dictatorship will find these tactics wearily familiar. Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Trump admires, has deployed performative authoritarianism, alongside other tools, in order to keep himself in power for many years now. ... Russian state television showed scenes of violence over and over again—scenes that Putin himself had helped create, first by encouraging the former Ukrainian president to shoot at demonstrators, and then by invading the country. He sent troops in unmarked uniforms—the infamous “little green men”—into Crimea and eventually eastern Ukraine to “dominate” the situation, to use Trump’s own word for his tactics in Portland. Or at least that was the way it was meant to look on TV.

... Just this week, Trump’s official Facebook page published an advertisement purporting to show yet another scene of American urban violence. The slogan reads public safety vs chaos & violence, and the ad contrasts a photograph of a somber, concerned Trump with another showing demonstrators pummeling a police officer. But the latter image was not taken in Portland. Sourced from the internet, it was taken in … Ukraine. In 2014. In the ad, which is attributed to Evangelicals for Trump, the insignia on the officer’s shoulder includes a Ukrainian Orthodox cross.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53500610


The Big Lie


Image of protesters in Kyiv, Ukraine taken on Feb.18, 2014

--------------------------------

Trump Is Determined to Split the Country in Two
https://www.defenseone.com/politics/2020/07/trump-determined-split-country-two/167209/
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 01:24:10 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #346 on: July 26, 2020, 11:59:10 PM »
From Office of Strategic Services: Hitler's Psychological Profile: pg. 46
https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP78-02646R000600240001-5.pdf

His Primary Rules Were:

Quote
- Never allow the public to cool off;

- Never admit a fault or wrong;

- Never concede that there may be some good in your enemy;

- Never leave room for alternatives;

- Never accept blame;

- Concentrate on one enemy at a time and blame him for everything that goes wrong;

- People will believe a big lie sooner than a little one; and

- If you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it.

Sound familiar?
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 01:28:01 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #347 on: July 27, 2020, 03:15:45 PM »
VM, do you think those last two rules (about lying) are correct?
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vox_mundi

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #348 on: July 27, 2020, 05:31:44 PM »
VM, do you think those last two rules (about lying) are correct?
Disambiguation?

1. ...are they correct? (Did I copy the correct info from the OSS report?) Yes

2. ... are they correct? (Do people/governments lie?) Yes ... Pop-quiz ... Which is true? Iraq had WMD or We invaded Iraq for oil?

3. ... are they correct?  (Does it work?) Yes. See above.

4. ... are they correct?  (Do I think it is the right path to follow?) No! It is the path to perdition.

-------------------------------------

A big lie (German: große Lüge) is a propaganda technique. The expression was coined by Adolf Hitler, when he dictated his 1925 book Mein Kampf, about the use of a lie so "colossal" that no one would believe that someone "could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously".

Quote
... All this was inspired by the principle—which is quite true within itself—that in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods.

  It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying.

— Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, vol. I, ch. X
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 05:41:26 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Florifulgurator

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #349 on: July 27, 2020, 08:02:39 PM »

The US is not democratic, never has been!

Correct.  It is a Republic, whereby the populous elect representatives, who are supposed to repress them.  Instead they represent themselves.

Still.  It is better today that in previous times.
Freudian slip, that, Walrus? "repress" them?
Methinks not. It is something mostly unconscious: Pretty please repress us, so we can complain! Pain makes us feel alive! (More tax cuts for the rich! Universal heathcare is for welfare queens! Etc. etc.) Thus many vote for sadopopulists.



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