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Pmt111500

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #350 on: July 27, 2020, 08:57:00 PM »
This onion classic should be played everytime someone claims US is a democracy.

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #351 on: July 28, 2020, 12:54:15 AM »
When half of the country is publicly demonized for supporting the President, you cannot rely on polling. I think that those who believe Biden has a chance of winning are in for a rude awakening in November and the same delusions that led to the 2016 loss have led to the Biden candidacy and its inevitable failure.

Pmt111500

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #352 on: July 28, 2020, 07:42:34 AM »
When half of the country is publicly demonized for supporting the President, you cannot rely on polling. I think that those who believe Biden has a chance of winning are in for a rude awakening in November and the same delusions that led to the 2016 loss have led to the Biden candidacy and its inevitable failure.

Yes, I try to continuously emphazise the depth of the republican lies, but most democrats think the election system works ok.
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The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #353 on: July 29, 2020, 01:29:57 PM »
When half of the country is publicly demonized for supporting the President, you cannot rely on polling. I think that those who believe Biden has a chance of winning are in for a rude awakening in November and the same delusions that led to the 2016 loss have led to the Biden candidacy and its inevitable failure.

I think Biden has two things going for him that Clinton did not.  One, people have been embarrassed with the way Trump treats other people, and would prefer someone who acts “presidential.”  Secondly, he is likable.

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #354 on: July 29, 2020, 01:40:31 PM »
Really, does it make much difference which one wins? If you chart the economy, crime, abortions, GHG emissions, military deaths, or any other countable issue over the last 75 years, would you be able to tell whether the POTUS was Republican or Democrat at any particular time? Are we just choosing between Twiddledum and Twiddledee?
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blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #355 on: July 29, 2020, 01:58:15 PM »
There are a lot of things the Dems would do better than the Reps.

They are not fascistic. They don't deploy the GeStaPo in US cities. No Dem would tell people that there is alien DNA in vaccines. They don't hype Q-anon conspiracies in the mainstream media.

These are only things happened today. If you look at what happened this week, month, year, you'll find a million reasons where they would actually make a difference.

Yes, Dems are also conservative fucks i hate to the core. But they are at least not batshit crazy.

How is it this has to be pointed out to anyone? How bizarre do things have to get before people notice?
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wili

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #356 on: July 29, 2020, 03:02:23 PM »
Wal, Biden also seems to connect better with the working class than HRC did.

But he really does need to have a stronger message than 'I'm not that other guy'

And just to add two more to the nearly endless list of batshit crazy and dangerous things Repugs regularly do that Dems never have (to my knowledge):

hype an anti-malarial drug to cure a disease in the midst of an epidemic of that disease, tho it has no known curative properties for it;

deny the overwhelming science of AGW....
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #357 on: July 29, 2020, 03:39:48 PM »
b, if there were a third party candidate who matched your political philosophy would you vote for him? This would be voting for the “best” candidate and sending a message to the Dems. It would also make a Trump re-election more likely.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #358 on: July 29, 2020, 03:51:58 PM »
In my country, there are 2 parties that have a big enough overlap with my political views (Die Linke & Die Partei).

In the US though, with its undemocratic two-party system, it would be political suicide for me to vote for my ideology. Because it would be indirectly a vote for Trump, and therefore a vote for fascism. And i am very much anti-fascism.

So yes, i would vote Biden in 2020 even if there was a party that represented my views.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #359 on: July 29, 2020, 04:06:15 PM »
Thank you, b. In 2012 there was a third party candidate who ran on Right to Life that I was tempted to vote for, but I voted for Romney.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #360 on: July 29, 2020, 04:17:54 PM »
Welcome, Tom. :)

BTW, your vote for trump last time didn't do for you what you wanted. Maybe consider looking at the whole picture this time around. There are other issues than the one that is so dear to your heart with way bigger implications for literally every living being on the planet.
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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #361 on: July 29, 2020, 04:27:41 PM »
Wal, Biden also seems to connect better with the working class than HRC did.

But he really does need to have a stronger message than 'I'm not that other guy'


Agreed.  So far, that seems to be his entire message.  However, it was the working class that helped put Trump in the white house, and that might be enough.  He only won by a few votes in some key states.  Still the comparison with 2016 are uncanny.  People are saying it is his to lose.  Sound familiar?

Although, I think the virus lockdown is helping him; the less he [Biden] talks, the better.

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #362 on: July 29, 2020, 05:26:42 PM »
How do things work in your country, b? If there are ten parties that each get ten percent of the vote, who wins?
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #363 on: July 29, 2020, 05:29:24 PM »
Welcome, Tom. :)

BTW, your vote for trump last time didn't do for you what you wanted. Maybe consider looking at the whole picture this time around. There are other issues than the one that is so dear to your heart with way bigger implications for literally every living being on the planet.
That is why I would vote for a third party candidate if there were a prolife one running now. But I guess I will be stuck with the GOP.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #364 on: July 29, 2020, 05:42:49 PM »
How do things work in your country, b? If there are ten parties that each get ten percent of the vote, who wins?

They would have to negotiate a coalition. In your example, you would have a 6 parties coalition. If they fail to build a coalition, another round of voting would take place.

I will be stuck with the GOP.

You are not. You are conned into believing that. By the most stupid and despicable con-man there is mind you. You are insulting your intelligence, Tom.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #365 on: July 29, 2020, 05:59:05 PM »
b, I know Biden will not be prolife. If a million Americans a year were dying of heatstroke AGW would be the deciding issue. If a million Americans a year were dying of COVID that would be the deciding issue. But a million Americans a year are dying of abortion. Tell me what candidate I should vote for then.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #366 on: July 29, 2020, 06:30:56 PM »
PM, Tom!
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wili

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #367 on: July 29, 2020, 07:18:44 PM »
It is sad to see how much Tom and his ilk are being utterly manipulated by one emotional issue, and don't seem to be able to realize it.

Their failure is sealing the fate of America (though the demise of its never-robust democracy has been a long time coming).
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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #368 on: July 29, 2020, 08:56:28 PM »
It is sad to see how much Tom and his ilk are being utterly manipulated by one emotional issue, and don't seem to be able to realize it.

There appears to be an equal number being manipulated by the same emotional issue on the other side of the argument.  Do you feel that they are unable to realize it also.  I applaud Tom for sticky to his ideals.  That is not often seen in this day and age.

Pmt111500

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #369 on: July 30, 2020, 07:00:00 AM »
Ah, it's the 'raped women must carry to the term', argument that Tom supports. But with good luck a republican father may shoot the prospective father of the daughter's child.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2020, 07:38:09 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #370 on: July 30, 2020, 07:46:48 AM »
Folks, as much as we all have something to say on this hot-button issue (trust me I do too and it buggers me to no end), please respect Neven's wishes and common sense and avoid debating this on the ASIF.

Pmt111500

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #371 on: July 30, 2020, 10:19:06 AM »
Okay, the incel-politics of republicans is a delicate issue here, like their psyche.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #372 on: July 30, 2020, 10:47:49 AM »
Pmt, i agree. It's a problem!

Don't make any unfounded assumptions about members though. Don't fall into the scapegoating trap yourself. It's what we fight, not what we do.

Play the ball, not the man.
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The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #373 on: July 30, 2020, 04:24:37 PM »
This is an issue that has no compromising solution.  Hence, I will agree with Neven and heed his request.

Freegrass

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #374 on: July 30, 2020, 06:27:29 PM »
Trump just killed mister 999 Herman Cain. Going to a superspreader rally without a mask was probably not a good idea...

And in the meantime, Trump promotes someone else's Pizza at the same time the Herman Cain news came in...  :-\
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Pmt111500

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #375 on: July 30, 2020, 06:33:45 PM »
Looks like some gamblers still believe there will be elections in the US this year. I think they should put up options of no elections due Covid emergency, due civil insurgency, whatever. They could give quite good odds on that and accept a presidential bid, so absolutely no rigging of bets could happen.
https://www.unibet.eu/betting/sports/filter/politics

Looks like I was only 4 days early, before this was casually mentioned by Drumpf. Maybe now they could set up a betting pool for this option?
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The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #376 on: July 30, 2020, 06:43:12 PM »
Trump just killed mister 999 Herman Cain. Going to a superspreader rally without a mask was probably not a good idea...

And in the meantime, Trump promotes someone else's Pizza at the same time the Herman Cain news came in...  :-\

Travelling around the country without a mask was probably not a good idea.  Blaming someone else for his death, is even worse.

Paddy

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #377 on: July 30, 2020, 06:43:32 PM »
b, I know Biden will not be prolife. If a million Americans a year were dying of heatstroke AGW would be the deciding issue. If a million Americans a year were dying of COVID that would be the deciding issue. But a million Americans a year are dying of abortion. Tell me what candidate I should vote for then.

Well, depending on state, there may be the option of voting Kanye. 

What a choice between him and Trump, if this is your number one issue... and incidentally, if it is your number one issue, you may want to be aware that some of his policies, allegedly designed to prevent abortions, have the paradoxical effect of increasing abortion numbers by reducing access to contraception.  https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/internationaldevelopment/2019/01/16/trumps-reinstatement-and-expansion-of-the-global-gag-rule-has-harmful-effects-for-women-men-and-children/

blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #378 on: July 30, 2020, 06:57:53 PM »
have the paradoxical effect of increasing abortion numbers by reducing access to contraception

My point exactly. :)

Anyway, further talking about abortion may be held in private, Paddy. Thanks for your understanding.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #379 on: July 30, 2020, 11:31:41 PM »
The Justice Department’s militarized police force is expanding to Cleveland, Detroit, and Milwaukee — which just happen to be “Cities in the swing states of Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin,” David Gura of NBC News pointed out Wednesday, after DOJ announced the pivot
https://twitter.com/davidgura/status/1288496670607646720

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/operation-legend-expanded-cleveland-detroit-and-milwaukee
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #380 on: July 31, 2020, 12:44:24 AM »
https://www.gocomics.com/overthehedge/2020/07/29

RJ: Who's gonna win the election
Tree: At the least, a semi-intelligent, functioning human
RJ: So not...
Tree: Bingo.
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Neven

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #381 on: July 31, 2020, 12:54:34 AM »
I particularly like the second halves of CJ Hopkins' columns:

Quote
No, credit where credit is due to GloboCap. At this point, not only the United States, but countries throughout the global capitalist empire, are in such a state of mass hysteria, and so hopelessly politically polarized, that hardly anyone can see the textbook color revolution that is being executed, openly, right in front of our faces.

Or … OK, actually, most Trump supporters see it, but most of them, like Trump himself, have mistaken Antifa, Black Lives Matter, and the Democratic Party and their voters for the enemy, when they are merely pawns in GloboCap’s game. Most liberals and leftists cannot see it at all … literally, as in they cannot perceive it. Like Dolores in the HBO Westworld series, “it doesn’t look like anything” to them. They actually believe they are fighting fascism, that Donald Trump, a narcissistic, word-salad-spewing, former game show host, is literally the Return of Adolf Hitler, and that somehow (presumably with the help of Putin) he has staged the current civil unrest, like the Nazis staged the Reichstag fire! (The New York Times will never tire of that one, nor will their liberal and leftist readers, who have been doing battle with an endless series of imaginary Hitlers since … well, since Hitler.)

I’ve been repeating it my columns for the last four years, and I’m going to repeat it once again. What we are experiencing is not the “return of fascism.” It is the global capitalist empire restoring order, putting down the populist insurgency that took them by surprise in 2016. The White Black Nationalist Color Revolution, the fake apocalyptic plague, all the insanity of 2020 … it has been in the pipeline all along. It has been since the moment Trump won the election. No, it is not about Trump, the man. It has never been about Trump, the man, no more than the Obama presidency was ever about Obama, the man. GloboCap needs to crush Donald Trump (and moreover, to make an example of him) not because he is a threat to the empire (he isn’t), but because he became a symbol of populist resistance to global capitalism and its increasingly aggressive “woke” ideology. It is this populist resistance to its ideology that GloboCap is determined to crush, no matter how much social chaos and destruction it unleashes in the process.

In one of my essays from last October, Trumpenstein Must Be Destroyed, I made this prediction about the year ahead:

“2020 is for all the marbles. The global capitalist ruling classes either crush this ongoing populist insurgency or God knows where we go from here. Try to see it through their eyes for a moment. Picture four more years of Trump … second-term Trump … Trump unleashed. Do you really believe they’re going to let that happen, that they are going to permit this populist insurgency to continue for another four years? They are not. What they are going to do is use all their power to destroy the monster, not Trump the man, but Trump the symbol. They are going to drown us in impeachment minutiae, drip, drip, drip, for the next twelve months. The liberal corporate media are going to go full-Goebbels. They are going to whip up so much mass hysteria that people won’t be able to think. They are going to pit us one against the other, and force us onto one or the other side of a simulated conflict (Democracy versus the Putin-Nazis) to keep us from perceiving the actual conflict (Global Capitalism versus Populism). They are going to bring us to the brink of civil war …”

OK, I didn’t see the fake plague coming, but, otherwise, how’s my prediction holding up?

First half can be read here: The White Black Nationalist Color Revolution
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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #382 on: July 31, 2020, 07:10:32 AM »
Colour revolution coming home in monochrome.

I like consentfactory, dont always agree, but hopkins writes better than many.

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #383 on: July 31, 2020, 08:16:26 AM »
If you think lefties calling the POTUS a fascist is an exaggeration, you are either not familiar with what the word means, or you are not familiar with the history.

It's not lefties calling him that. It's everyone rooted in reality.

Even ultra-conservative like this one can see it:

Federalist Society co-founder calls Trump's tweet about delaying election "fascistic"

Link >> https://www.axios.com/federalist-society-trump-tweet-election-fascistic-e2aefd4a-1688-44f2-a26a-fea63374beaa.html
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sidd

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #384 on: July 31, 2020, 09:12:52 AM »
Re: Trump, fascist

Oh, absolutely. Every colour revolution attempts to overthrow a fascist.

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #385 on: July 31, 2020, 09:51:19 AM »
If you think lefties calling the POTUS a fascist is an exaggeration, you are either not familiar with what the word means, or you are not familiar with the history.

It's not lefties calling him that. It's everyone rooted in reality.

Read it again:

Quote
I’ve been repeating it my columns for the last four years, and I’m going to repeat it once again. What we are experiencing is not the “return of fascism.” It is the global capitalist empire restoring order, putting down the populist insurgency that took them by surprise in 2016. The White Black Nationalist Color Revolution, the fake apocalyptic plague, all the insanity of 2020 … it has been in the pipeline all along. It has been since the moment Trump won the election. No, it is not about Trump, the man. It has never been about Trump, the man, no more than the Obama presidency was ever about Obama, the man. GloboCap needs to crush Donald Trump (and moreover, to make an example of him) not because he is a threat to the empire (he isn’t), but because he became a symbol of populist resistance to global capitalism and its increasingly aggressive “woke” ideology. It is this populist resistance to its ideology that GloboCap is determined to crush, no matter how much social chaos and destruction it unleashes in the process.
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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #386 on: July 31, 2020, 10:28:19 AM »
Yes, Neven, i understands your point. You think it's all fake. No one's fears are rational. People should line up to die for the economy. The economic downturn is only a function of the MSM hyping us all up. People don't die from Covid, but because they are irresponsible fucks who happen to eat the wrong things. The old and sick deserve to die, they would have died anyway. Yady yady yada...
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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #387 on: July 31, 2020, 10:55:50 AM »
I can't quite figure out why one must insist the pandemic is fake in order to prove that bad political things are being done, some on the pandemic's name, some while denying the pandemic. If not for the pandemic, something else would have come up. Why deny the science of the pandemic to make a political point?
Never mind, guess it's the wrong thread.

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #388 on: July 31, 2020, 12:22:40 PM »
I can't quite figure out why one must insist the pandemic is fake in order to prove that bad political things are being done, some on the pandemic's name, some while denying the pandemic. If not for the pandemic, something else would have come up. Why deny the science of the pandemic to make a political point?
Never mind, guess it's the wrong thread.
As far as I can see, Neven's hypothesis is not that the pandemic is fake, but that powerful figures in the shadows are whipping up a lot of unnecessary hysteria over it, to regain control over a populace that are starting to wake up to the lies. That could well be true - there's some evidence in favour of it - but there are other explanations.

The simplest is that Bad News Sells - the media are eager to put the worst face on it, to get the extra sales and clicks. And politicians go along with it because they have to be seen to be concerned about each and every death. If they said "it seems to be settling down to less than one death in a thousand, and mostly the old and sick - the useless ones" they'd be lynched.
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The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #389 on: July 31, 2020, 01:39:49 PM »
I can't quite figure out why one must insist the pandemic is fake in order to prove that bad political things are being done, some on the pandemic's name, some while denying the pandemic. If not for the pandemic, something else would have come up. Why deny the science of the pandemic to make a political point?
Never mind, guess it's the wrong thread.
As far as I can see, Neven's hypothesis is not that the pandemic is fake, but that powerful figures in the shadows are whipping up a lot of unnecessary hysteria over it, to regain control over a populace that are starting to wake up to the lies. That could well be true - there's some evidence in favour of it - but there are other explanations.

The simplest is that Bad News Sells - the media are eager to put the worst face on it, to get the extra sales and clicks. And politicians go along with it because they have to be seen to be concerned about each and every death. If they said "it seems to be settling down to less than one death in a thousand, and mostly the old and sick - the useless ones" they'd be lynched.

Both explanations are plausible, even likely.

blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #390 on: July 31, 2020, 06:53:28 PM »
Important Twitter thread. Please read!

Quote
Today Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo unveiled the real nightmare scenario for the 2020 election—and the question of what Trump has legal authority to do has nothing to do with it. I hope you'll read on and retweet—as what I'm describing here is what America is heading for.

Autocracies aren't born in rule of law. They're not even primarily born in violence. Rather they arise *despite* rule of law—often on the strength of a benighted populism, in fact just the sort of populist movement Trump is building now over false fears of a "rigged" election.

The question isn't whether Trump has legal authority to move Election Day and thereby extend his presidency—he doesn't—but a different question: what happens if he just declares that he *does* have this power? And what if he can do so with a false *veneer* of legal legitimacy?

By October 31, Trump's decision not to combat COVID-19 (indeed to worsen the pandemic with every one of his words, actions, and decisions not to act), coupled with an incipient flu season, is likely to send America's COVID-19 data—infections, deaths—into its horrifying nadir.

Meanwhile, Trump has put a crony who's likely a witness in an ongoing federal criminal probe—a man who's a peer of perjurers (and worse) Michael Cohen, Elliott Broidy and Gordon Sondland—in charge of the United States Postal Service. Already, this crony is destroying the USPS.

If, on October 30, COVID-19 is cresting—as it likely will be—and the USPS is less able to deliver mail properly than at any point in recent history, as seems likely (and on Trump's end intentional), Trump's self-manufactured "case" for a national emergency will be at its apex.

Today, Mike Pompeo told us Trump lackey Barr—who has never refused the president anything, who appears to be a Trump co-conspirator in the Ukraine scandal, and who has already shown a penchant for violating the law—gets to decide if Trump can announce a change in Election Day.

Note that each time I use the anodyne euphemism "change in Election Day," what I'm describing is in fact apocalyptic—an artificial extension of the Trump presidency corresponding with the end of American democracy and the beginning of Trump's reign as America's first autocrat.

Barr has already instructed OLC (the Office of Legal Counsel) to produce opinions that violate all existing law (for that matter, we saw that during the prior GOP administration, Bush's, as to torture). Barr can get the OLC to crush a CIA whistleblower—or change Election Day.

I ask anyone reading this to simply play out the following hypothetical—the one I offer in the next tweet—which is "hypothetical" only insomuch as it takes everything we know about Trump, Pompeo, Barr, COVID-19, and the USPS *right now* and projects it 90 days into the future:

On October 30, Trump announces, with an OLC opinion "granting" him this power in hand, that he is moving the 2020 presidential election 120 days, after which time he will review the nation's ability to safely and securely conduct an election. He announces it via tweet and TV.

Understand that this would be illegal—and wouldn't change election day. But that wouldn't be the point. The point would be to *convince Trump voters not to vote*.

You may have to read the preceding sentence multiple times—it's counterintuitive unless you're a metamodernist.

This thread isn't on metamodernism. All you need to know is that on the day in June 2015 Trump announced his candidacy, I published a HuffPost essay declaring that what made Trump dangerous was his ability to manipulate reality (in a way theorists connect to "metamodernism").

The way to win an unwinnable election, using the sort of powerful reframing of events a certain way of thinking Trump instinctively (not intelligently or responsibly) employs, is not to turn out your voters... but *declare the election invalid once your voters don't show up*.

The purpose of the pre-election Trump announcement I am hypothesizing here would not be to help Trump *win* the 2020 election, but to convince so many Trump voters *not to vote* that the results of the election favor Biden by *so much* the election looks wholly illegitimate.

Imagine a scenario in which, with 3 branches of government—executive, judicial, legislative—you have the executive branch declaring the election was moved, the judicial branch (as yet) silent, and the legislative branch in chaos because no one in the GOP knows what to say/do.

By convincing his voters to stay home—because he's "moved the election"—Trump will have caused every GOP member of Congress to *lose their reelection*, *forcing* them to back his play and say that the election was delayed and therefore Biden didn't actually win on November 3.

The result: an executive branch that says the election was invalid; half the legislative branch (the GOP half) saying the election was invalid; election results that *look* invalid (as Biden has won by 50+ points); and a judicial branch that hasn't—and can't—say anything yet.

In that circumstance, what does "rule of law" even mean? You have a separation of powers issue—a conflict between branches of government—that the Supreme Court *must* hear, and because it's the most complex case ever heard by SCOTUS in US history, it's impossible to expedite.

The mere fact that Trump would have enacted this constitutional crisis just 96 hours pre-election means SCOTUS *can't* speak on it pre-election, and the complexity of the case would throw into chaos *all* state election deadlines. Which is basically the point of Trump's plot.

All Trump needs in this scenario is a) SCOTUS to move at its usual glacial pace, and b) GOP-run states (states with GOP secretaries of state running their elections) to *refuse to certify election results* or *choose electors* until the Supreme Court has acted on the issue.

I'm not even sure *Trump* would be the plaintiff in this case—as he and his GOP allies in Congress (and GOP secretaries of state) would so adamantly declare the election results invalid they might wait to make the *Democrats* sue in federal court, making them look desperate.

And how magnanimous Trump will be! He and his GOP allies will offer to *negotiate* with Democrats in lieu of them filing a federal suit. Trump will say, "We have to wait until this invisible plague is under control. That's *all* anyone is asking here." It'll sound persuasive!

Know what'll make it *more* persuasive? Election results so insane-looking—Biden 82%, Trump 15%—they'll make Egypt's el-Sisi blush. Biden will be half-inclined to *agree* with Trump on a do-over—knowing his term as an "illegitimate monarch" may be marked by historic violence.

Right now I need everyone in media; everyone on "legal Twitter"; everyone who's a professional political analyst to comment on this thread—or on your own feeds, it doesn't matter—explaining why this Trump plan wouldn't work. Why it isn't *exactly* what he's setting us up for.

Understand that I didn't develop this thread out of some fever dream. All I did was take statements and actions by Trump, Barr, and Pompeo; the current status of COVID-19 and the USPS (and who controls each); and the way of thinking Trump has exhibited *since June 2015*.

PS/ I understand—and empathize with, as a lawyer—those who reply, "Nah, he ceases to be POTUS on January 20th at noon."

Again, that's the view that *law* determines if a coup is successful, not the brute force of populism and logistics—the logic undergirding Trump's actions now.

In the scenario I've described, yes, the law would suggest Biden—having won the election 82% to 15%; with less than 270 electoral votes; and with all GOP politicians and all GOP secretaries of state and most GOP voters saying he won a fake election—is the president. So what?

What would in mean—in that scenario—for someone to be "president"? And that's the question the five ultra-conservative justices of the Supreme Court would have to decide, probably on a timeline so glacial it couldn't be concluded effectively until early January 2021 at best.

More importantly, that's the question *Democrats* would have to decide—and would probably be deciding in the midst of historic Republican protests and threats of violence all across the country. Would *Democrats* consider it their best move to accept that election "victory"?

We learned in January '20 that impeachments are about politics, not law—though they're supposed to adhere to rule of law. In January '21 we may learn *elections* are *also* about politics, not law. What happens if Dems must allow a do-over to preserve the peace of our Union?

This scenario works for Trump even if early voting depresses Biden's win to (say) 62% to 36%. It may even work without Barr aboard. It may work if the "don't vote" effort is homegrown, inspired and supported by Trump but not demanded by him. The premise itself is the thing.

The solution here is for America to publicly discuss this scenario *now*—and invalidate it. GOP politicians must agree to abide by the election results even if Trump convinces his voters not to show up. Barr must state clearly that Trump cannot legally "move" election day.

Constitutional law experts must play out how SCOTUS would act. Election law experts must do scenario-planning on how misconduct by GOP secretaries of state could be thwarted. Dems must educate Republicans on who's POTUS on January 20 if SCOTUS is still working on a ruling.

Democrats must announce now that there'll be no "do-over" election—and anyone who opts not to vote is making a decision they must *live by*. Emergency assistance must be provided to USPS. Social media should deem Trump tweets on moving election day "election interference."

It's amazing to see responses saying "the military wouldn't allow it" or "Pelosi would be POTUS." Again, this sort of coup happens through *politics, rhetoric, and the reframing of reality with GOP pol/voter support*—it has nothing to do with law, violence or the military.

Link >> https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1288882406536228866
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

The Walrus

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #391 on: July 31, 2020, 07:35:29 PM »
While Trump is not beyond such actions, I think he would be more subtle.  He has already declared a national emergency dur to Covid.  He has control over the military, borders, and the post office.  One of all of these (and others) could be used to covertly control the outcome of the election.  Just look how several governors have responded to the primary elections.  Anything is possible.  I think an illegitimate election would be the last resort, and a very precarious ploy.

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #392 on: July 31, 2020, 10:33:33 PM »
Orange has often stated his admiration of autocrats. He has already stated on national television that he may not accept  election results. We will just have to see. I am scared and angry. He has already declared the law does not apply to him.

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #393 on: July 31, 2020, 10:38:46 PM »
Orange is many things but one of them is not subtle IMO.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #394 on: August 01, 2020, 12:35:11 AM »
B_,
SCOTUS regularly acts on emergency appeals within hours. 

The federal court system could easily respond to a constitutional crisis within 3 days.  Something like:
  • Trump declaration on Sunday,
  • lawsuit brought to federal court within 1 hour,
  • judge ruling within 1 hour (yes, on Sunday),
  • appeal within minutes,
  • appeals court ruling on Monday morning,
  • appeal to SCOTUS, and
  • SCOTUS ruling Monday afternoon.
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Pmt111500

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #395 on: August 01, 2020, 03:25:25 AM »
Orange has often stated his admiration of autocrats. He has already stated on national television that he may not accept  election results. We will just have to see. I am scared and angry. He has already declared the law does not apply to him.
US - Land of freedom and liberty, and politically appointed judges.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #396 on: August 01, 2020, 12:22:26 PM »
Political Legitimacy Dies in 2020
https://www.aier.org/article/political-legitimacy-dies-in-2020/
Quote
Because of the pandemic, many states are switching primarily to mail-in voting even though experiences with recent primaries were a disaster. In New York City, officials are still struggling to count mail-in ballots from the June primary. Up to 20% of ballots “were declared invalid before even being opened, based on mistakes with their exterior envelopes,” the Washington Post noted, thanks largely to missing postmarks or signatures. In Wisconsin, more than 20,000 “primary ballots were thrown out because voters missed at least one line on the form, rendering them invalid.”

Some states are mailing ballots to all the names on the voting lists, providing thousands of dead people the chance to vote from the grave. President Trump claims that the shift to mail-in voting could result in “the most corrupt vote in our nation’s history.” Trump is often wrong on issues but even a New York Daily News article tagged the recent primary results a “dumpster fire.” Delayed election results and potentially millions of disputed ballots could minimize support for whoever is designated the next president.
Quote
What happens if Trump continues to repel many if not most potential voters, and then Biden comes across in the presidential debates as clueless and doddering as did Special Counsel Robert Mueller in a congressional hearing last July? How many Americans will feel forced to choose between a scoundrel and an idiot?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #397 on: August 01, 2020, 12:45:02 PM »
Imagine being a country and you can't figure out elections...

Edit: Even better: Imagine you are POTUS and people support you for not being able to figure out elections.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2020, 01:00:11 PM by blumenkraft »
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sidd

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #398 on: August 08, 2020, 08:02:56 AM »
Ground game: Republicans come knocking, Democrats stay home

"Donald Trump’s campaign says it knocked on over 1 million doors in the past week alone."

"Biden’s campaign says it knocked on zero. "

"Biden and the Democratic National Committee aren’t sending volunteers or staffers to talk with voters at home"

"Trump and the Republican National Committee, in contrast, started deploying mask-wearing field staffers and volunteers to the streets in June ... claims more than a million doors a week"

“From now to Election Day, voters may only see one campaign at their doors,”

"Reminding voters to fill out their ballot and then collecting them — or “ballot catching," as some field organizers call it — is one of the most critical programs on any campaign, although laws on it vary by state. "

"The decision to forgo door-knocking is part of a larger gamble that voters will give Biden credit for taking the coronavirus more seriously than Trump."

"The dueling approaches are apparent in down-ballot races as well"

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/04/trump-joe-biden-campaign-door-knockers-391454

sidd


blumenkraft

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Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #399 on: August 08, 2020, 03:18:40 PM »
Joe Biden NEEDS To Stop Talking

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