Voting in the Georgia runoff elections is underway. Democrats need to win both seats to forge a 50-50 tie, with Harris being the tie-breaking vote. Both races are close, and the Democrats do have a chance. However, history is not on their side for the following reasons.
1. Republican voters tend to cast their ballots at a higher rate in runoff elections and non-presidential elections than Democrats.
2. Republican candidates for each seat received more votes in November than the corresponding Democratic candidates. None received more than 50%, so a runoff ensued.
3. Republican candidates for the Senate fared bettered than Trump in the 7 closest races (AZ, GA, IA, MN, MI, NC, and TX), by almost 1%. Biden won Georgia by a mere 0.2%.
4. The few polls in the race show a slight lead for both Democratic candidates, but the polls in the general election showed a 1% greater advantage for Biden than the actual outcome. Eight of the 12 Senate polls in the week before the November election gave Ossoff (D) the advantage, by an average 0f 1.5% (Perdue received 1.8% more votes).
The one advantage for the Democrats is Trump. He cannot keep his mouth shut, and recent remarks have only resulted in energizing Democratic voters. Should be an interesting night.
