Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Elections 2020 USA  (Read 36544 times)

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6414
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2386
  • Likes Given: 2031
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #700 on: October 28, 2020, 12:52:57 PM »
I am afraid a combination of 3 (Biden wins clearly after a few days) and 6 (Trump refuses to step down and calls on SCOTUS) will happen. And that is the good scenario, in the bad one Trump wins clearly.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3906
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 640
  • Likes Given: 377
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #701 on: October 28, 2020, 01:26:02 PM »
3 is likely, but Trump winning a landslide is the least likely (I won’t say impossible for anything anymore, however).
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3719
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 653
  • Likes Given: 436
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #702 on: October 28, 2020, 02:51:35 PM »
Residents of Puerto Rico Will Vote 'Yes' or 'No' on Statehood
Quote
  • It’s the sixth time in history in which residents of Puerto Rico will be asked about the island’s relationship with the United States.
  • This time, it’s a simple yes or no question: “Should Puerto Rico be admitted immediately into the Union as a State?”
But different politicos have different opinions about how to proceed...

The requirements are:
Quote
  • The proposed state votes on the matter.
  • The proposed state officially petitions Congress for Statehood.
  • The proposed state must make sure it is following the constitution for its government.
  • Both the Senate and the House vote with a majority to accept the state.
  • The president signs the bill.
I think the third item might take a while - it may require a separate commonwealth vote, but I'm not certain.
At statehood, they would immediately get 2 senators (appointed by the governor until the next federal election - at that election, one would be elected to a 2 or 4 year term and the other a 4 or 6 year term, to be part of different 'classes' and to mesh with the existing '1/3 up for election each federal election' rule) and about 5 seats in the House of Representatives (to be elected in special elections, per districts designed in accordance with the new state constitution).  Also at statehood, the citizens would start accruing a federal income tax liability.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3906
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 640
  • Likes Given: 377
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #703 on: October 28, 2020, 05:34:54 PM »
Any chance of state-ifying the District of Columbia, Tor?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4356
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2471
  • Likes Given: 334
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #704 on: October 28, 2020, 08:41:31 PM »
Election 2020 Chatter On Twitter Busy With Bots, Conspiracy Theorists, Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-election-chatter-twitter-busy-bots.html


USC scientists analyzed tweets from June 20 to Sept. 9, 2020, and found that right-leaning bots were responsible for 20% of the tweets on certain conspiracy theories, including QAnon, so-called "gate" conspiracies, as well as misinformation about COVID-19.

Bots and conspiracy theorists have infested the Twitter chatter around the upcoming U.S. presidential election, USC researchers have found.

Looking at more than 240 million election-related tweets, the study found that thousands of automated accounts, known as bots, had posted tweets about President Donald Trump, his Democratic opponent former Vice President Joe Biden and both their campaigns.

Most of these bots were promoting right-leaning political conspiracies like QAnon. Even though the bots are believed to have been responsible for a few million of the tweets, they likely reached hundreds of thousands of Twitter users.

... "I think the most important finding here is that bots exacerbate the consumption of content within the same political chamber, so it increases the effect of echo chambers or the salience of those tweets."

The bots were identified by Botometer, a machine learning-based tool developed by USC and University of Indiana scientists to identify likely bots based on their tweeting behavior and several other characteristics.

Throughout their analysis, the research team identified significant differences between bots and humans and the type of election content they tweet and retweet on the social media platform.

Highlights of the study included:

Right-leaning accounts significantly outnumbered their left-leaning counterparts by 4-to-1 among bots and by 2-to-1 among humans.

Users that shared or retweeted news from right-leaning media platforms were almost 12 times more likely to share conspiracy narratives than users that shared or retweeted content from left-leaning media (25% vs. 2%).

The conspiracy theories that the researchers traced in tweets included the far-right conspiracy QAnon, as well as conspiracies such as "pizzagate."

They also studied which users were likely to share politically biased COVID-19 conspiracy narratives about the origins of the coronavirus or unsupported claims about treatments for the disease.

About 13% of all users sharing conspiracy narratives were suspected bots. The proportion of users tweeting about QAnon were most concentrated in certain states: Alaska, Idaho, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana and Oklahoma.

Just 4% of the bots shared news from left-leaning and centrist media outlets, including The Washington Post, The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, ABC News, BBC, CNN and others.

About 20% of users that shared content from right-leaning media (e.g. Breitbart, OANN and Infowars) were likely bots.

... "In short, the state of social media manipulation during the 2020 election is no better than it was in 2016. We are very concerned by the proliferation of bots used to spread political conspiracies and the widespread appeal that those conspiracy narratives seem to have on the platform," Ferrara said. "The combination of automated disinformation and distortion on social media continue to threaten the integrity of U.S. elections."

https://news.usc.edu/177963/election-2020-twitter-social-media-bots-foreign-interference-usc-study/
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

The Walrus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 780
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #705 on: October 28, 2020, 10:31:50 PM »
I seriously doubt that either candidate will win in a landslide.  The last landslide was Reagan in 1984, and he did that by a 59%-41% margin.  All indications are that this election will be much closer. 

#3 looks like the most likely scenario, but I suspect that enough votes will be counted by Friday after the election to determine a winner.  Each state must certify the votes.  This will not take months, as each state has a set date, between 1 and 5 weeks after the election to certify the results.  This must be done so that the electors can cast their ballots on Dec. 14.  Should a state not certify results in time, and their electors do not vote, the total falls short of 538.  If enough states do not submit electoral votes, the decision goes to the house.  The speaker of the house taking over is highly unlikely, as the current House itself would choose the president.  This would favor Trump. 

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3719
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 653
  • Likes Given: 436
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #706 on: October 29, 2020, 02:44:34 PM »
Yes, nobody is predicting an 18 point landslide this election, uhhh, except PRRI.  Half that would still be a landslide, though.  Yesterday's polls:
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

The Walrus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 780
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #707 on: October 29, 2020, 03:30:35 PM »
That would be similar to the 1988 and 2008 elections.  Nobody is calling the Bush or Obama victories landslides though.

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 502
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #708 on: October 29, 2020, 04:41:13 PM »
Suddenly the polls appear to be tightening. LOL.

Trump is going to win in a 300+ EV blowout, if not 350+, I think his EC margin of victory will be much higher than in 2016, although the margin of popular vote may remain roughly the same.

Biden doubled down on the Hillary strategy... he has energized turnout in all the states that he will not flip. Again, lol.

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3803
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #709 on: October 29, 2020, 06:33:23 PM »
A nice warm day to

- vote?
- stop people voting?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3719
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 653
  • Likes Given: 436
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #710 on: October 29, 2020, 09:11:29 PM »
That would be similar to the 1988 and 2008 elections.  Nobody is calling the Bush or Obama victories landslides though.
Bush over Dukakis 1988:   7.8 points   -   CNN called this a mini-landslide
Obama over McCain 2008:  7.5 points   -   a landslide election only in Dixville Notch and Harts Location, NH

Question:  Is 9.3 or 10.3  "close" to 7.8?

More on early-results precincts: Dixville Notch, Harts Location and Millsfield, NH 

Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3719
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 653
  • Likes Given: 436
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #711 on: October 29, 2020, 09:33:26 PM »
Forecast rain via NOAA


Nothing over 1/4" (60 mm) predicted in 2 days (Nov 2 & 3, basically) except for small parts of Oregon, Washington (state), Maine and Massachusetts, and probably some snow in Alaska (Nov 1 forecast) in the southern panhandle.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

The Walrus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 780
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #712 on: October 29, 2020, 10:22:41 PM »
That would be similar to the 1988 and 2008 elections.  Nobody is calling the Bush or Obama victories landslides though.
Bush over Dukakis 1988:   7.8 points   -   CNN called this a mini-landslide
Obama over McCain 2008:  7.5 points   -   a landslide election only in Dixville Notch and Harts Location, NH

Question:  Is 9.3 or 10.3  "close" to 7.8?

More on early-results precincts: Dixville Notch, Harts Location and Millsfield, NH

This is what I love.  One thread calling an 8-or victory a landslide, which frostking over on the poll spread thread says that an 8 pt victory in the popular vote could result in a loss in the electoral vote.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4356
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2471
  • Likes Given: 334
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #713 on: October 30, 2020, 01:15:20 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

be cause

  • Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1424
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 621
  • Likes Given: 478
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #714 on: October 30, 2020, 10:46:18 AM »
Forecast rain via NOAA


Nothing over 1/4" (60 mm) predicted in 2 days (Nov 2 & 3, basically) except for small parts of Oregon, Washington (state), Maine and Massachusetts, and probably some snow in Alaska (Nov 1 forecast) in the southern panhandle.


  lol .. if we can't mention the election in weather threads , surely we can't allow weather to get a mention in the election threads ... b.c.  ;D
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 502
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #715 on: October 30, 2020, 03:20:04 PM »
1) I think this is a re-alignment election with historically high turnout, it may be the highest turnout in history as a % of the US (not its eligible voter pop but maybe that too). 

2) There is also a pandemic ongoing.

3) Therefore the polls are going to be essentially meaningless.

4) Early voting is showing a major Biden enthusiasm gap in Florida, with R turnout already almost closing the deficit. In the 2018 gubernatorial election, which the Rs won, they went into the election with a 230K deficit and still won. They are currently at a 150K deficit and there are still days before the election, this has dropped from 300K a week+ ago.

5) Ohio is clearly going red. Ohio has historically been the best indicator for the US as a whole.

6) While polls are saying one thing, the situation in OH and FL, IMO, indicates that Trump is on track to win in an electoral college blow-out, due to both historically high turnout, and the pandemic.

I could easily be wrong, btw.

The Walrus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 780
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #716 on: October 30, 2020, 05:20:20 PM »
1) I think this is a re-alignment election with historically high turnout, it may be the highest turnout in history as a % of the US (not its eligible voter pop but maybe that too). 

2) There is also a pandemic ongoing.

3) Therefore the polls are going to be essentially meaningless.

4) Early voting is showing a major Biden enthusiasm gap in Florida, with R turnout already almost closing the deficit. In the 2018 gubernatorial election, which the Rs won, they went into the election with a 230K deficit and still won. They are currently at a 150K deficit and there are still days before the election, this has dropped from 300K a week+ ago.

5) Ohio is clearly going red. Ohio has historically been the best indicator for the US as a whole.

6) While polls are saying one thing, the situation in OH and FL, IMO, indicates that Trump is on track to win in an electoral college blow-out, due to both historically high turnout, and the pandemic.

I could easily be wrong, btw.

I suspect that Trump will win Ohio and Florida.  He will probably win Iowa, Arizona, and NC.  But, unless he wins Pennsylvania or two or the smaller states that are close, Biden will prevail in the electoral college.  My prediction is Biden 279 and Trump 259.  Very close, and we may not know for certain until well after the election, especially if Pennsylvania is close.

wehappyfew

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 119
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #717 on: October 30, 2020, 06:12:05 PM »
My analysis/predictions follow almost exactly along with bbr's above:

1. This is a re-alignment election, or a continuation of the inexorable demographic trends that were interrupted by Trump's improbable EC squeaker.
 - White non-university voters declining
 - Minority voters continuing towards outright majority combined with GOP's total rejection of these voters (Hispanic males being the only minor exception)
 - Younger voters mobilized by climate change (finally!)

2. Pandemic - adding an extra bit of revulsion for Trump that is driving turnout enthusiasm higher among Dems than would normally be expected for a bland white guy like Biden. Depressing GOP votes among the elderly, who are horrified at Trumps pandemic response (killing off your voting base - not a smart stable genius strategery).

3. Polls were close in 2016, within margin of error; pollsters adjusted their models to account for the errors; these adjustments are overcompensating, and missing the youth enthusiasm above. So the polls will turn out to be wrong in the other direction this time.

4. Florida is full of Floriduh Man! Always expect some gross ratfuckery there.

5. Ohio is going red, NC going blue, GA and AZ going purple, even KS, IA and TX starting the process towards purple. Continuing the trend, like VA and CO going from red to purple to blue. Once AZ, NC, and GA are solid blue, and TX is purple, there is no path for GOP to win the Presidency in the next few decades.

6. Electoral college blowout, but not quite as big as Reagan's, for Biden. Along with the largest ever popular vote margin (but almost certainly not the highest percentage margin).

7. Possible EC win by Trump with largest popular vote loss? Not at all likely. This is not 2016.

8. Election day violence by Proud Boys standing by?... very little, but extensive media coverage of any that does occur. Post election violence by GOP judiciary and DOJ attempting to disrupt the counting of all the votes? Yes, lots of it. Hopefully futile due to the large margins making it obvious that Trump lost big.

Its not often I agree so much with bbr, except for that one tiny bit at the end.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4356
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2471
  • Likes Given: 334
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #718 on: October 30, 2020, 08:14:35 PM »
Swing-State Voters Face Major Mail Delays In Returning Ballots On Time, USPS Data Shows
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/30/postal-service-absentee-ballots-2020-election/?outputType=amp

Absentee ballots are taking longer to reach election offices in key swing states than in the rest of the country, new data shows, as the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) rushes to deliver votes ahead of strict state deadlines.

Over the past five days, the on-time rate for ballots in 17 postal districts representing 10 battleground states and 151 electoral votes was 89.1 percent — 5.9 percentage points lower than the national average. By that measure, more than 1 in 10 ballots are arriving outside the Postal Service’s one-to-three-day delivery window for first-class mail.

Those delays loom large over the election: 28 states will not accept ballots that arrive after Election Day, even if they are postmarked before. Continued snags in the mail system could invalidate tens of thousands of ballots across the country and could factor into whether President Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden captures crucial battleground states and, ultimately, the White House.

In Michigan, for example, the Detroit postal district — which includes some of the state’s largest concentrations of Black voters, who are crucial to Biden’s campaign — had delivered only 72.8 percent of ballots on time over the past five days, according to Postal Service data filed in U.S. District Court of the District of Columbia. In the Greater Michigan district, which represents the rest of the state, 84.3 percent of ballots arrived to election officials on time.

The Postal Service’s data accounts only for mail pieces the agency successfully identified as ballots and does not include “first mile” and “last mile” handling steps, which add time to delivery. Advocates and postal experts say the agency, under normal circumstances, should have an on-time score of 97 percent for ballots.

Minnesota Is Urging Voters To Return Ballots In Person After A New Court Decision
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4356
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2471
  • Likes Given: 334
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #719 on: October 30, 2020, 08:29:26 PM »
Narcissists are Drawn to Leadership Theories
https://phys.org/news/2020-10-narcissists-drawn-leadership-theories.html

UQ School of Psychology researchers examined the extent to which a leader's narcissism was associated with their endorsement of, and motivation to learn about, leadership theories.

Dr. Nik Steffens said the findings build on previous research showing leadership was an activity that appeals to, and boosts, people's inflated sense of self.

"The more narcissistic individuals are, the more they endorse various theories of leadership and the more they want to learn about them," Dr. Steffens said.

"This in turn suggests that what motivates some people to engage with leadership theory is more a personal concern for the self than a social concern for the greater good. Our findings chime with an emerging body of work which suggests that narcissists desire to be the center of attention and that one way in which they are able to feed this ambition is by striving for positions of responsibility and power over others. It would appear that those who have self-serving tendencies not only have an elevated motivation to lead and exert their influence but are also those who are most keen to learn about contemporary theories of leadership."

"Theories of leadership tend to celebrate what makes individuals superior to others and propose that it is this superiority that allows organizations and societies to flourish," Professor Haslam said.

"One consequence of this is that most prevailing leadership theories appeal directly to leaders' narcissism. In a time where there are low levels of public trust in corporate and political leaders this is an arresting finding, as it suggests that rather than leadership and leadership theory being the solution to our current woes, they may actually be their cause. If the people who are drawn to the study of leadership are primarily interested in looking after themselves, we should not be surprised if they use their learning to do precisely this."

Niklas K. Steffens et al. The narcissistic appeal of leadership theories., American Psychologist (2020)
https://doi.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Famp0000738

--------------------------------

Donald Trump's Ex-wife Once Said Trump Kept a Book of Hitler's Speeches by His Bed
https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trumps-ex-wife-once-said-he-kept-a-book-of-hitlers-speeches-by-his-bed-2015-8?amp

In a 1990 interview, Mr Trump’s then wife Ivana, said her husband owned a copy of “My New Order” – a printed collection of the Nazi leader’s speeches.

The billionaire businessman admitted to owning Nazi leader's 'Mein Kampf' but said he had never read speeches.

... Ms Brenner suggested the Trump, who was suffering difficulties with his business at the time, may have been looking for inspiration in Hitler's "genius for propaganda" and the way he spun military defeats as great victories.

https://archive.vanityfair.com/article/share/e515a2cd-a51b-4f83-8d61-6ebb9a104e0a
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4356
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2471
  • Likes Given: 334
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #720 on: October 30, 2020, 09:29:06 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4356
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2471
  • Likes Given: 334
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #721 on: October 31, 2020, 02:48:04 PM »
Experts See Substantial Danger to Democratic Stability Around 2020 Election
https://www.rochester.edu/newscenter/bright-line-watch-2020-election-democratic-stability-459792/



On the eve of the November 3 election, Bright Line Watch—the political science research project of faculty at the University of Rochester, the University of Chicago, and Dartmouth College—finds that experts are concerned about substantial risks to the legitimacy of the election, including potential problems in the casting and counting of votes, the Electoral College, and in the resolution of electoral disputes.

Meanwhile, among the US public surveyed, a majority of those who support Trump—as well as a plurality of those who oppose him—believe voter fraud to be far more prevalent than the evidence shows.

These are among the findings of the watchdog group's latest (October 2020) surveys.

http://brightlinewatch.org/american-democracy-on-the-eve-of-the-2020-election/

"It's really disconcerting that the myth of voter fraud is so broadly accepted," says Gretchen Helmke, professor of political science at Rochester and one of the founders of Bright Line Watch. "There is absolutely no systematic evidence to support any of the various claims made about widespread voter fraud, yet more than three quarters of Trump supporters continue to believe that this is a real danger, as do more than 20 percent of Trump opponents."

Helmke says that this myth has long been used as a pretext for laws that suppress votes. "In the short run," she adds, "it also potentially allows Trump to sow doubt and chaos about any election results that do not go his way."

Key findings
  • The experts anticipate a flood of online misinformation and potentially destabilizing rhetoric from President Trump during and after November 3.
  • The experts see substantial risks of scenarios that could threaten the election, including potential problems in the casting and counting of votes, the Electoral College, and in the resolution of electoral disputes.
  • The experts rate President Trump's statement that the 2020 election should be delayed and his refusal to commit to a peaceful transfer of power as the most important and abnormal of the 169 events they have rated over the course of his presidency.
  • Americans are generally confident their votes will be counted as intended at the local level and as voters intend in their states, but somewhat less confident in the process at the national level.
  • Only 44 percent of Trump supporters say they would regard a Biden victory as legitimate and only 34 percent of Trump opponents said they would view a Trump victory as legitimate.
  • Both supporters and opponents of President Trump recognize that the election result may not be clear on November 3. Majorities of both groups say they are prepared to recognize outcomes that differ from the initial count on election night as legitimate.
  • Trump's supporters and opponents have starkly different beliefs about the prevalence of voter fraud in US elections.
  • Most Americans, regardless of political affiliation, reject the use of violence to advance political goals, but substantial minorities are willing to condone violence and incivility.
  • Americans' confidence that their government protects them from political violence and guarantees their right to peaceful protest has declined since March.

The result of their survey of the American public shows a clear partisan divide over the allegation of possible voter fraud: the percentage of Americans who believe that thousands of each type of illegal votes are cast in elections ranges from 41 to 50 percent overall. However, it never rises above 29 percent among those who disapprove of President Trump, whereas the percentages range from 67 percent (voting more than once) to 78 percent (non-US citizens voting or stealing or tampering with ballots) among Americans who approve of Trump.

2020 election nightmare scenarios

The scenarios rated as most likely concern potential problems on Election Day, such as widespread false claims on social media about the integrity of the election, and misleading reports about long lines and delays at the polls.

The experts also ranked near the top several items directly related to President Trump—that he would decry as false an anticipated "blue shift" as mail-in ballots are counted and instead insist that the initial totals on election night were correct; that he would encourage violence and intimidation during voting or ballot counting; and that he would refuse to concede the 2020 election after having been declared to have lost by the Associated Press.

Bright Line Watch's experts also predicted that the disqualification of mail-in ballots will surpass 5 percent in at least one state, that early vote counts, which are expected to underrepresent mail ballots, will lean Republican, and that at least one candidate will declare victory before the Associated Press regards the outcome as sealed.

"Our experts rate President Trump's discussion of delaying the election and refusal to commit to the peaceful transfer of power as the most important and abnormal of his presidency," says Brendan Nyhan, professor of government at Dartmouth College, and one of the founders of Bright Line Watch. "This finding reinforces the need for concern about democratic stability in this election and in the future."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 502
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #722 on: October 31, 2020, 03:58:15 PM »
Democrats' lead in FL early voting is down to 107K. It was 150K yesterday.

Pennsylvania's registration shift has also been dramatic but this is not reflected in the early voting. I think Trump will win by about 300K votes in PA based on the shift from 2012->2016->2020.

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 502
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #723 on: October 31, 2020, 04:01:30 PM »
538's model is very dishonest. Look what happens when you put actualities in. Trump has a 3/5 chance at winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

If Trump gets TX FL OH and PA, which is likely IMO, he has an 84% chance of winning.

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 502
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #724 on: October 31, 2020, 04:35:58 PM »
Also, you can further see how the bad data in deep red states is ruining Nate's model when you check off the deep red states for Trump. If Trump holds ME-2 which appears LIKELY beyond those six states mentioned, he has an 84% chance of winning.

He won ME-2 by 10.29% in 2016, btw. So there would have to be a remarkable shift in ME-2 for him to lose this election, in my opinion. This is the actual bellweather electoral college vote.

In Maine, Hillary won 35% of the Democratic Caucus vote in 2016, while Biden won 33% of the D primary vote this year. Make of that what you will, Hillary only won the entire state by 2.96% back in 2016.

If Biden's performance vis a vis Hillary is an indicator (33.4% vs. 35.49%), there is a legitimate chance the entirety of Maine flips. If Maine flips, NH is probably also going to go to Trump (79%), NV (68%), PA (92%), WI (63%), MI (59%), MN (56%).

Furthermore, if Maine is indicative of wins in those states, that then also translates into T victory chances of 55% in Colorado, 45% in New Mexico, 35% in VA, and 22% in Oregon. If CO flips T, NM has a 61% chance of going for T, and if NM flips T, Trump has a 53% chance of winning in VA and a 47% chance of winning in Oregon.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 05:24:30 PM by bbr2315 »

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6414
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2386
  • Likes Given: 2031
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #725 on: October 31, 2020, 06:12:40 PM »
You could be right, but I hope you're wrong. In any case I wonder if you will revisit these predictions after the election?

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 502
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #726 on: October 31, 2020, 06:14:31 PM »
You could be right, but I hope you're wrong. In any case I wonder if you will revisit these predictions after the election?
I will! Very interested to see what happens. To be clear I am not voting, I am interested first and foremost as an observer of actualities and trends re: elections.

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 502
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #727 on: October 31, 2020, 08:35:50 PM »
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=National&demo=Voter%20Score&demo_val=Never%20Voted&demo2=Party%20Score%20Rollup

I am using the modeled data here and nothing more. Vs. 2016 at the same time / D share of vote / 2016 outcome / would it flip in 20 w current votes in?

AZ: 46.5% (+4.6%) / 3.54% to T, (could flip Biden but I don't think it will) / 20 = +1.06%B
GA: 42.0% (+1.0%) / 5.13% to T (no flip, stays T) 20 = +4.13% T
FL: 46.4% (-1.9%) / 1.2% to T (no flip, stays T) 20 = +3.1% T
ME: 56.3% (-2.7%) / 10.29% to T (no flip, stays T) 20 = +12.99% T
MI: 42.3% (+4.1%)  / .23% to T (can flip Biden) 20 = +3.9% B
MN: 45.8% (-3.9%) / 1.52% to H (can flip T) = +2.48% T
NC: 47.6% (-5.2%) / 3.66% to T (no flip, stays T) = +8.66% T
NV: 45.9% (-5.9%) / 2.42% to H (can flip T) = +3.48% T
OH: 40.7% (-6.7%) / 8.13% to T (no flip, stays T) = +14.83% T
PA: 63% (+20%) / .72% to T (bad data) = +19.28% B / excluding due to low numbers
TX: 38.9% (-1.4%) / 8.99% to T (no flip, stays T) =  +10.39%T
VA: 48.0% (-3.2%) / 5.32% to T (could flip, but probably stays Biden) = +2.12%B
WI: 39.6% (-8.7%) / .77% to T (no flip, stays T) = +9.44%T

The PA turnout is low. The other results are pretty consistent. Based on this data, it looks like NV, ME, and MN might flip to Trump and Michigan could flip to Biden. PA looks to be trending Biden but I'm wary on the data there, as mentioned, as it is a major outlier. I think AZ is not going to flip Biden and the recent data is heavily R.

Now, let's include the states where the margin is 5 points or higher WITH the data. Based on these, there is a 97% chance Trump wins the election. Those states are TX, WI, FL, OH, NC, and ME-2.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2020, 08:55:20 PM by bbr2315 »

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 502
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #728 on: October 31, 2020, 08:58:23 PM »
There is also something to be said for the major significant trend in the states with huge turnout + modeled party, and its relevance to the states that do not yet have turnout, as the states already in do have some predictive capability re: those that are not.

If WI, TX, NC, FL, OH, and ME-2 are red, the probabilities for the other swing states are...

AZ: 89%
PA: 88%
NV: 68%
NH: 59%
MN: 57%
MI: 55%
ME: 47%
CO: 21%
NM: 20%
VA: 12%
OR: 8%

Sebastian Jones

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 426
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 107
  • Likes Given: 98
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #729 on: October 31, 2020, 09:00:09 PM »
You could be right, but I hope you're wrong. In any case I wonder if you will revisit these predictions after the election?
BBR's Trump blow out win predictions are, I hope, as accurate as his predictions of an impending glaciation centred in Quebec/Labrador.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3719
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 653
  • Likes Given: 436
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #730 on: October 31, 2020, 09:20:17 PM »
Weather forecast (whether I get banned for it or not  8))

Maine and Massachusetts are removed from 1/4" (60 mm) of rain territory during Tuesday's voting.  Now it's down to parts of Washington, Oregon, New York and Vermont - and no question how Senate and Presidential elections will go in those states.  No heavy snow on election day in Alaska, apparently [select Alaska, precip. amt. and scroll to Nov. 3 on the top drop-down boxes and slider].  It will only be 'really cold' (below -5C) in Alaska and parts of northern Maine & New Hampshire in the morning, and above freezing in the afternoon nearly everywhere in the contiguous states.  The cold snap in the upper mid west will barely affect MN, WI and MI.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3253
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 586
  • Likes Given: 390
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #731 on: October 31, 2020, 10:46:05 PM »
Biden leads in Michigan and Wisconsin as campaign ends

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-wisconsin-arizona-north-carolina/index.html

Cops pepper-spray voters marching to the polls in North Carolina — including a 5-year-old girl

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/watch-cops-pepper-spray-voters-marching-to-the-polls-in-north-carolina-including-a-5-year-old-girl/

No voting suppression there  /sark  >:(
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4356
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2471
  • Likes Given: 334
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #732 on: October 31, 2020, 10:52:40 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3719
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 653
  • Likes Given: 436
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #733 on: October 31, 2020, 11:06:11 PM »
About 18 hours left to vote in the 'spread between Trump and Biden' poll.  Remember to refine any guess or prediction in the comments.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3309.msg290432.html#msg290432
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

be cause

  • Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1424
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 621
  • Likes Given: 478
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #734 on: October 31, 2020, 11:22:46 PM »
just bet myself there'd be 42 votes .. and of course there was ... :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

wehappyfew

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 119
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #735 on: November 01, 2020, 02:14:03 AM »
Thank you, bbr for your table of predictions. It takes courage to put hard numbers on predictions like that.

This will be an excellent opportunity for either you, or nearly everyone else (those predicting a Biden blowout) to re-examine our priors after the results come in.

If it is a Biden blowout, will you accept the results as valid? ... or will you blame it on fraudulent voting, a vast conspiracy to distort the true vote totals, etc... as Trump has insinuated?




bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 502
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #736 on: November 01, 2020, 02:31:46 AM »
Thank you, bbr for your table of predictions. It takes courage to put hard numbers on predictions like that.

This will be an excellent opportunity for either you, or nearly everyone else (those predicting a Biden blowout) to re-examine our priors after the results come in.

If it is a Biden blowout, will you accept the results as valid? ... or will you blame it on fraudulent voting, a vast conspiracy to distort the true vote totals, etc... as Trump has insinuated?
I would accept them as valid, like I said, I am not voting.

There is polling data coming out tonight that is very alarming for Biden re: Iowa and Wisconsin. The Des Moines Register has him up by as much or more than 2016 and Iowa is a bellweather for similar demographics in the rest of the Rust Belt.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3253
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 586
  • Likes Given: 390
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #737 on: November 01, 2020, 04:14:46 AM »
With so many ballots already cast (2/3 of 2016 total ballots already nationally) and margin of error and 5% not willing to say...these last minute polls don't really tell us much.

I see no recent poll indicating that Biden is behind there. But again, even if there were such, it would have little significance with so many already having voted.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 502
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #738 on: November 01, 2020, 04:34:23 AM »
With so many ballots already cast (2/3 of 2016 total ballots already nationally) and margin of error and 5% not willing to say...these last minute polls don't really tell us much.

I see no recent poll indicating that Biden is behind there. But again, even if there were such, it would have little significance with so many already having voted.
Modeled D proportion of vote is down 4.9% vs. 2016 at this time according to --

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/?view_type=National&demo=Voter%20Score&demo_val=Never%20Voted&demo2=Party%20Score%20Rollup

Take that for what you will, but registered Ds =/= Biden votes, 2020 is a continuation of the realignment that began in 2012 and accelerated in 2016.

https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2017/10/24/16524034/2016-realignment-midwest

The hubris of those on this Forum to assume that the white working class will not back Trump even more enthusiastically when they have been called nothing but deplorable, and when D governors have launched attacks on their very way of life since the start of COVID. Maybe I'm wrong, but there was about a 10-point general swing in this demo in 2016 towards T, and I'd be surprised if this was not equaled or surpassed in 2020 when all is said and done (and this time the collapse in D support may also spread to Black and Latino voters, if recent polling is indicative).

bbr2315

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 502
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #739 on: November 01, 2020, 05:00:41 AM »
The collapse in D support is evident in the votes coming in from the deeper blue states of recent.

state / 2020 D support change vs 2016 / 2020 R support change vs 2016 / net change / 2016 diff / 2020 diff /  turnout vs 2016

CO: -1.6% / +.8% / +2.4% to T / +4.91% to H = +1.51% to Biden (86.8% of 16 turnout in)
IL: -8.6% / +4.8% / +13.4% to T / +17.07% to H = +3.6% Biden (52.8%)
MD: -2.4% / +2.2% / +4.6% to T / +26.42% to H = +21.82% to Biden (62.7%)
NM: -2.7% / +1.7% / +4.4% to T / +8.22% to H = +3.82% to Biden (86.7%)
NV: -5.7% / +5.9% / +11.8% to T / +2.42% to H = +9.38% to Trump (90.8%)
WA: -2.3% / +5.9% / +8.2% to T / +16.23% to H = +8% Biden (92.4%)


There are also states trending towards Biden or neutral ish.

CA:+7.2% / -7.9% / +15.1% to B / +30.11% to H = +45.21% to Biden (65.7%)
NJ: +2.2% / -1.5% / +3.7% to B / + 14.1% to H = +17.8% to Biden (76.6%)
VT: +3.6% / +1.3% / +2.3% to B / +25.96% to H = +28.26% to Biden (74.1%)

Of the states with 90%+ turnout in here, the projected lead by Trump is about 10% greater than it was in 2016.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3906
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 640
  • Likes Given: 377
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #740 on: November 01, 2020, 12:26:12 PM »
Voting in advance:
PRO: Escape long lines of potential covid patients.
     If something happens to you you get your vote in (I once missed an election because I was in the hospital with pneumonia).
CON: You can't change your vote when your candidate is caught in a sex scandal involving half a ton of dry ice and 50 live aardvarks.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

The Walrus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 780
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 106
  • Likes Given: 62
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #741 on: November 01, 2020, 01:16:50 PM »
538's model is very dishonest. Look what happens when you put actualities in. Trump has a 3/5 chance at winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

If Trump gets TX FL OH and PA, which is likely IMO, he has an 84% chance of winning.

I would be extremely surprised if he did not win TX and OH.  He won them handily in 2016.  FL and PA are key.  Trump must win both to have a chance.  That still puts him just short.  He needs NC and IA, which are both more likely.  That would still leave him one state short.  He then needs either AZ, WI, MI, MN, NV, or NH.  MI is out and WI is looking rather blue. 

Al in all, I think the election will be very close.  We may not know for a day or so afterwards.  I am still sticking with my previous prediction of Biden by virtue of winning PA.

Paddy

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 710
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #742 on: November 01, 2020, 01:26:42 PM »
Voting in advance:
PRO: Escape long lines of potential covid patients.
     If something happens to you you get your vote in (I once missed an election because I was in the hospital with pneumonia).
CON: You can't change your vote when your candidate is caught in a sex scandal involving half a ton of dry ice and 50 live aardvarks.

Further con: there's a risk, as seen in Texas, that some people may be so unscrupulous as to seek ways to bin your vote.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3906
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 640
  • Likes Given: 377
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #743 on: November 01, 2020, 01:30:43 PM »
Coincidentally, that time in the hospital also features a three day power failure in my town...
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4356
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2471
  • Likes Given: 334
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #744 on: November 01, 2020, 10:34:54 PM »
Trump Plans to Declare Victory Before Election is Called - Reports
https://www.axios.com/trump-claim-election-victory-ballots-97eb12b9-5e35-402f-9ea3-0ccfb47f613f.html

Axios, citing three anonymous sources, is reporting that Donald Trump plans to ignore the actual results of the election and declare victory if the early results show him “ahead."

That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.

... Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks, describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he has won.

For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.


Why it matters: Trump's team is preparing to falsely claim that mail-in ballots counted after Nov. 3 — a legitimate count expected to favor Democrats — are evidence of election fraud.

Trump's team is preparing to claim baselessly that if that process changes the outcome in Pennsylvania from the picture on election night, then Democrats would have "stolen" the election.

Trump's advisers have been laying the groundwork for this strategy for weeks, but this is the first account of Trump explicitly discussing his election night intentions.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/31/red-mirage-trump-election-scenario-victory
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

RikW

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 237
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #745 on: November 02, 2020, 08:34:56 AM »
To be honest, I don't have the feeling the USA is a democracy anymore;

1. The more money you have, the more people you can influence, thus the result isn't the will of the people, but the will of the small group of democrats and/or republicans

2. A real democracy should make sure as much as possible eligable voters should be able to vote; Your employer should be forced to give you free hours to vote, you should have more than enough polling stations, so queues aren't too long, there should be an easy, simple system without requiring lots of action of voters to register themself to vote.

Ktb

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 127
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #746 on: November 02, 2020, 09:19:13 AM »
To be honest, I don't have the feeling the USA is a democracy anymore;

According to the World Democracy Index, the US is a flawed democracy; not a full democracy.

I would place the US in the Hybrid Regime as the US currently has a government that applies pressure on political opponents, non-independent judiciaries, widespread corruption, harassment and pressure placed on the media, anaemic rule of law, underdeveloped political culture, and low levels of participation in politics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index
I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.
- Ishmael

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3906
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 640
  • Likes Given: 377
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #747 on: November 02, 2020, 01:42:03 PM »
More from Mike Snyder. While he is somewhat unreliable, I think he has a couple good points this time, and might be right.

Either way, this election will be the biggest emotional blow that America has suffered in decades
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/either-way-this-election-will-be-the-biggest-emotional-blow-that-america-has-suffered-in-decades
Quote
If Trump is able to pull off another miracle, it will crush Democrats emotionally like no other presidential election we have ever seen.

But if Trump is not able to pull off another miracle, it will crush Republicans emotionally like no other presidential election we have ever seen.

Either way, this is going to be a devastating emotional blow for tens of millions of Americans, and the emotional fallout will last for years.

If you are on the winning side in this election, there will definitely be a temptation to rub it in the faces of those that have lost.

But that temptation must be resisted, because that is not the proper response.

There are going to be people that you know that are deeply, deeply hurting, and they are going to need love and compassion to get through the grieving process.

If we are ever going to be united as a country ever again, we have got to learn to love those that we deeply disagree with.

2 huge reasons why Joe Biden could lose that hardly anyone is talking about
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/2-huge-reasons-why-joe-biden-could-lose-that-hardly-anyone-is-talking-about
Quote
When it is all over, the Biden campaign may look back and see that they had millions of additional voters that actually wanted to vote for their candidate.  But in order to count, any votes must follow proper procedure and they must be delivered on time.

If Trump wins, I believe that the reasons I have discussed in this article are likely to be the deciding factor, and most of the talking heads on television will never even realize what happened.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

RikW

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 237
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #748 on: November 02, 2020, 04:19:00 PM »
Just saw this video and to me it show why every American who says they are a free country and a democracy, but is unwilling to change the system is a liar.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/opinion/elections-foreign-voter-reaction.html

ritter

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 550
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Elections 2020 USA
« Reply #749 on: November 02, 2020, 06:40:59 PM »
I unenthusiastically voted Biden a couple of weeks ago. I can't stand Trump, but Biden is on the soggy side of milquetoast.

While I can't put any numbers to it, I believe Trump will win the EC count and narrow the popular vote from 2016. I fear that promising a mask mandate to the swing states will backfire. I fear that closing with gun restrictions will backfire. I fear that Dems hopes for early voting will backfire. I fear that the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016. I fear that the Trump rallies are an indication of enthusiasm that is sorely lacking in the Biden camp. I fear that not a whole lot of younger progressives will bother to show to vote for another old rich white guy. I fear that those most directly impacted by the Covid hits to the economy (the poor) won't turn out in significant numbers for Biden. I fear enough of the black voter and Hispanic voter base has had it with the Dems.

Lots of fear and very little faith Biden can pull this off, despite the ongoing media onslaught to the contrary. Hopefully, we'll know sooner rather than later. Either way, I expect some significant turmoil.