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Juan C. García

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Social Activism
« on: November 08, 2018, 04:50:59 AM »
Focusing on what has happened…

I started contact with Neven in May or June 2012 and I was shocked with the ASI drop on August, after the Great Arctic Cyclone. I was also impressed by the 2012 PIOMAS Volume graph made by Wipneus. So, when on the first months of 2013 appeared cracks on the ASI, well, several of us were concern of what could happen that year. Finally, 2013 was a good year for the ice and 2014 was even better. It had passed 6 years since 2012 and the collapse has not happened.

Or it has happened?  :o

On extent, the ASI has not even able to break the 2007 record, not to mention the 2012 record. So, there are some people saying that 2012 is an outlier and even 2007 will be difficult to break. But I don’t like extent! Yes, it is important to measure the effect of the Arctic Ocean albedo. But to measure the ASI drop, I am convinced that we should use volume, even if it is harder to measure than extent.

So, what do I see on volume?

First, volume on 2007 has been broken several times. On volume, 2007 is the ninth lowest on record! And even that September 2012 is still the lowest, the difference between 2012 with 2010-2011 and 2016-17 is not that big.

But on the other hand, while 2012 has not been broken, the decadal average show us that we
have a very different Arctic. By example, look at Aug-Oct average on a decadal basis.  The 1990-99 average of 93.6% changed to 68.5% on 2000-09 and to 39.5% on 2010-18.

So, do we need a catastrophe to prove a catastrophe? From my point of view, the catastrophe has already happened. The 39.5% ice that we have on 2010-18, versus the 1979-2000 baseline, is climate change, not just one year, not weather change.

My point is that with what has already happened, we should not be waiting for another bad year. We should be doing social activism. Expressing that there is no time to waste on banal discussions.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2018, 05:16:53 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

etienne

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Re: Social Activism
« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2018, 03:06:39 PM »
In this topic : https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2431.0.html (Extinction Rebellion), I was wondering what should be asked by activists.

I suggested this shortlist because I believe that the number of required items should never be more than 3 :
- CO2 Tax
- Same technical standards everywhere (for example regarding MPG, sulfur in gasoline and diesel, chemicals for agriculture, trash management...).
- Supporting the developpment of renewable energies

The second point is not diretly related to Climate Change, but I believe that Climate is not the only issue when talking about extinction.



Juan C. García

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Re: Social Activism
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2018, 07:05:50 PM »
Hi Etienne.

I must make a list myself.

In a way, I was not sure to call it Social Activism, because it can sound that I want to generate riots. It could happen, as the consequences of climate change increase. But should we wait until that to happen? There are several books now, devoted to climate change wars. My point is that we should try to avoid the consequences of climate change, rather to continue just analyzing facts but not being active on promoting solutions.

I put “Social Activism” as a topic in “Policy and solutions”. But from my point of view, “Social Activism” should be at the same level of “Policy and solutions” with the difference that we will have active people on those subjects. There could be already three topics on it. The ones that you mention.

But there are a lot more. For example, I have been discussing “Mexico City urban development” for several decades. An I relate it to greenhouse gas emissions. A lot of traffic in the cities, and a lot of corruption on urban development. I see that urban development corruption is the reason behind “it is forbidden to say ‘climate change’ on Florida government employees”. Should we accept to continue to avoid talking about climate change in Florida? Or will someone on this Forum will like to do a fight on that subject.

There are also subjects that could be very positive. Can we have a new public transportation system in Mexico City? If I bring the subject, could I have international support?
That is what I am looking to do, with a group of topics that we should call “Social activism”.

So the question is: Will Neven agree to open a "Social activism" subject, on "AGW in general" an accept that the Forum will have people active, looking to avoid a strong climate change?
« Last Edit: November 08, 2018, 08:04:13 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

etienne

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Re: Social Activism
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2018, 09:16:17 PM »
Many good ideas. I don't have much time now but just want to say that I believe that Social Activism needs a place in the forum.
From non violence trainings, I learned that there always has to be a balance between what is done (for this forum, discuss AGW), what is done to improve the situation (Policy and solutions, Walking the walk, and maybe "Social Activism") and how the public is informed of what's happening (or would "Social Activism" be here ? or is this the forum itself ?).
I don't have a problem with the existing structure, just that the limit between Policy and Solutions, Walking the walk and Social Activism are not very clear. It's not an issue for me because the number of topics and of users is limited.
The problem with a topic like Social Activism is that everybody does it locally, and there is not so much to discuss. In my case, I take sometimes information from the forum to use it locally, but there is nothing specific in what I do that would need to be published here, or I do it in "Walking the walk".
 

Juan C. García

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Re: Social Activism
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2018, 04:36:58 AM »
“Walking the walk” is solutions on the individual level.

“Policy and solutions” is what is happening on the world in general.

“Social activism” is that there is someone trying to make a specific change on society. If you believe that you have the power to make a change on the government actions, by example, and you become committed to promote that change, then you are becoming a social activist.

There could be many examples. For instance, I did not like the IPCC definition: "Nearly ice-free conditions is when sea ice extent is less than 1 million km2 for at least five consecutive years", so I made a poll expressing my disagreement:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1559.msg77843.html#msg77843

That was just discussing the facts. But I was very close to invite the members on the Forum to not accept that definition and write e-mails to the scientists involved on the IPCC Arctic Sea Ice subject. If I made that action, then I would introduce a social activism on this Forum.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 05:20:55 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.