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Will the 'old' ice that recently entered Nares Strait get to Baffin Bay before new 'old' ice enters the Strait?

Yes: the arch around the Lincoln Sea Polynya will hold
4 (28.6%)
No: the arch around the Lincoln Sea Polynya will break (soon)
8 (57.1%)
No: an arch will form in or near Kane Basin before this ice gets to Baffin Bay
1 (7.1%)
Maybe so: southern bridge holds circled bits, but northern bridge saves the day
1 (7.1%)

Total Members Voted: 14

Voting closed: March 05, 2019, 05:04:30 PM

Author Topic: Old ice moving through Nares Strait  (Read 4023 times)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #50 on: March 14, 2019, 02:39:25 PM »
Good catch, B_.  That screen print, by the way, is from DMI Sentinel March 13 image.  Unless that crack mends, there will be lots of mobile ice in the Lincoln Sea that will eventually reach Nares Strait.  D Day Ice, however, move slightly northward between the 12th and 13th.

Meanwhile in the Kane Basin, here is an mp4 from DMI's 2019-03-06 to 2019-03-13 (sans the 7th) Sentinel images showing Slowpoke moving a little between the 6th and 9th, but not at all since then.  Matched Pair, which shows up in this part of Kane Basin on the 9th (and separated from each other on the 10th just west of the NW corner of Slowpoke) didn't move much between 12th and 13th.

Is an ice bridge forming in Kane Basin now that there are no 'bull dozers' plowing their way through the thin, weeks-old ice?  If so, will this save the race for another month (or three) (presuming an ice bridge in Kane Basin will stop import of ice at the north end of Nares Strait)?
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #51 on: March 14, 2019, 03:30:21 PM »
Houston, we have a problem:  I was about to enter an "[Edit: xxx]" to the first post about some of the terminology used in that first post, but reading what I'd written, the details were pretty clear, and that I specified "the circled bits" (now called Remnants and Matched Pair), and not "all old thick ice now (on 1st) mobile in Nares Strait" (and the actual question referred to ice "recently entered Nares Strait" which reasonably could exclude Slowpoke, especially after using the term "circled bits").  Our situation is that Slowpoke took over the drag position (from "cowboy who rides at the tail end of a cattle drive").  In running commentary, I've assumed if Slowpoke was the only 'old thick ice' left in Kane Basin when the first part of D Day Ice (or other Lincoln Sea thick ice) entered the Strait, then the "Yes" vote would not be a winner.  But the first post that defines terms clearly only cares about 'the circled bits', so I think Slowpoke is just a distraction.

Of course, if the still identifiable parts of Matched Pair get stuck too, it won't matter, and Houston can go back to watching SpaceX.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #52 on: March 14, 2019, 05:30:14 PM »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #53 on: March 14, 2019, 05:50:20 PM »
Interesting, B_, the crack does appear mended (but we'll see if it stays stuck).   D Day Ice, on the other hand, inched southwards about 2 km between the 13th and 14th. DMI Sentinel images.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #54 on: March 15, 2019, 12:27:54 PM »
Minor breakups from the arch today.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #55 on: March 15, 2019, 02:18:38 PM »
The Canadian side of Kane Basin is still flowing at the surface, but the two parts of Matched Pair are suck in fast ice, as is Slowpoke (comparing 13th and 14th DMI images).
« Last Edit: March 16, 2019, 03:19:33 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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uniquorn

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #56 on: March 16, 2019, 01:37:14 PM »
Some cloud today but (mostly) new ice is flowing along the western edge down to the remnants. There might be a bit of a logjam near there but it's tricky to see on worldview.
I'm happy for slowpoke to be an interested bystander in all this. D-Day slipped its shackles, newbie changed its mind and edged back.
Worldview-viirsbt15n, mar15-16   https://go.nasa.gov/2Hp99Aw

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #57 on: March 18, 2019, 08:17:40 PM »
D Day Ice (in Lincoln Sea) has moved about 20 km closer to Nares Strait between March 17 and 18, and has about 20 km to go.  Tomorrow?

Down south, Remnants has passed its goal line (congratulations for doing your part in this "Poohsticks" competition), but Matched Pair remains stuck in 'the middle' of Kane Basin.  Images from DMI.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #58 on: March 19, 2019, 07:16:00 AM »
Today we see further minor breakups from the arch.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #59 on: March 19, 2019, 03:49:10 PM »
Well, I'll be …
Slowpoke and the Matched Pair are on the move again, comparing two March 18 DMI Sentinel images.  Also, you can see Remnants go from 'having crossed the finish line' to 'out of the picture'.  (The older of the two images in this mp4 has the same source as the image posted yesterday, so you can identify named floes from that image.)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #60 on: March 20, 2019, 04:19:18 PM »
The results are in.

The question was, "Will the 'old' ice that recently entered Nares Strait get to Baffin Bay before new 'old' ice enters the Strait?"  In the first post, the details of the question were fleshed out, identifying certain "circled bits of 'old' ice" as being 'one' of the contestants; once broken up, these were later labeled "Remnants" and "Matched Pair".  Some qualifying 'old' ice broke off the Lincoln Polynya arch about March 3rd and was labeled "D Day Ice".

Remnants crossed into Baffin Bay before D Day Ice crossed into Nares Strait, but Marched Pair didn't.

Therefore, I declare those who voted "No: the arch around the Lincoln Sea Polynya will break (soon)" the winners.  (I'm not one of them.)

In the DMI Sentinel images dated 2019-03-19 (screen prints thereof included below), D Day Ice is circled as are the two parts of Matched Pair.

The race was close, until the Matched Pair got stuck in temporarily fast ice (then released yesterday).  It was exciting when D Day Ice was blown northwards within the Lincoln Sea for a couple days.  And we had a nice distraction with "Slowpoke", until I realized it wasn't in the competition (also temporarily stuck in fast ice and subsequently released).

To anybody who wants to track D Day Ice, and its relation to the very recently mobilized "North Rim Floes", I suggest you (we) do so in the Nares Strait thread (as at least one person missed our presence there).
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #61 on: March 20, 2019, 04:49:38 PM »
I voted "No: the arch around the Lincoln Sea Polynya will break (soon)". I have to admit, i didn't think that one little piece of ice would make this true. My assumption at the time was there would be a major breakup.

Thanks so much, Tor, for this thread, that was fun!  ;D
(and no, this is not 'rooting' for a fast decline of sea ice as it was intended in another thread recently  ::) )

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #62 on: March 20, 2019, 05:43:23 PM »
Quote
My assumption at the time was there would be a major breakup.
Of course, As you noted, there almost was.

Quote
I ... didn't think that one little piece of ice would make [my no vote] true.
The "No" clarification you voted for in the first post included (emphasis added)
  • Quote
    the Lincoln Polynya arch breaks soon enough so that at least one floe of thick ice (much older than the two-week old ice currently in the polynya) enters Nares S. before the circled bits pass beyond Smith Sound
So, congratulations!
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #63 on: March 25, 2019, 07:25:24 PM »
Epilogue:  Matched Pair (circled) have crossed their finishing line, and Slowpoke-the-Distraction (or at least most of it - with a yellow dot) is not far behind in Smith Sound (as of yesterday's DMI Sentinel image, of which a screen print can be seen below).  At the other end of Nares Strait, the Lincoln Sea Polynya's arch 'totally' collapsed, Lincoln Sea is 'full' of old ice floes, and the North Rim Floes crossed into the Strait (and are near Petermann Fjord as of yesterday).
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uniquorn

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Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« Reply #64 on: March 25, 2019, 07:47:19 PM »
Thank you Tor for a pleasant distraction from what looks like being a gloomy melting season.
(despondent rather than overcast)