Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking

[Steven]

There was a similar poll last year.  I'm curious if the currently relatively high extent affects people's expectations.

Note that the bins are overlapping.

Previous years' JAXA extent for 31 December:

rank  year     extent [million km2]
1       2017     11.90
2       2016     12.10
3       2010     12.19
4       2015     12.27
5       2013     12.34
6       2012     12.43
7       2014     12.47
8       2008     12.49
9       2009     12.54
10     2004     12.56
11     2006     12.58
12     2005     12.59
13     2007     12.66
14     2011     12.68
15     2003     12.94



Current conditions: extent is pretty high at the moment due to the early freezing of Hudson and Baffin Bay.  Hudson Bay shouldn't play a role for the year-end extent (as it's always frozen by the end of December), but perhaps it could suggest early freezing of Labrador Sea and Gulf of St. Lawrence.  On the Pacific side of the Arctic, sea surface temperatures in both the Bering and Okhotsk Sea seem to be pretty high for the time of year, which may delay the freeze in those regions.

[Neven]

Good idea. Thanks for this poll, Steven. I'll go for 3-5.

[litesong]

I'll go for 3-5.

Since Neven criticized me for dwelling on the present 12 year low TSI, I'll pick 4-7.

[Stephan]

I think the JAXA extent at the end of this year will be around 12.5 M km² which is in the bin 4-7 that I clicked.

[Brigantine]

2nd or 3rd.

After checking out this post from last freezing season's thread... 2017 already had no ice in the Bering or Okhotsk, and I expect (based on pure guesswork and hunches) up to maybe 2.5 Icelands more ice in Labrador and Barents than at that point in the 2017 season, thus 12.15 i.e. 3rd.

Maybe I would change it slightly if I knew what the Gulf of St Lawrence looked like on 2017-12-31.

[gerontocrat]

2nd or 3rd.
Maybe I would change it slightly if I knew what the Gulf of St Lawrence looked like on 2017-12-31.

St Lawrence gain does not get going until January. Note mask change end oct & end nov.

[Klondike Kat]

4-7.  Close between this and the next bin, but this is slightly wider.

[Phil42]

To help deciding, here's the "Juan-Table" of 31^st December 2017. I should really read the first post in the future.

2018 has currently a 793'651 km² higher extent than 2017, ranked 13^th.

Since I think that mostly all of the relevant remaining ice formation until the end of this year will be in Baffin, Hudson Bay and Chuckchi (where I don't expect too many surprises), my prediction is that 2018 will be around the 2010's average by the time this year concludes, ranking 4-7 as well.

[gerontocrat]

To make it more difficult to decide .....

on 19th October,
- freeze was 1.003 million km2 less than average (last 10 years), and
- extent was 0.855 million km2 less than the 2010's average.

On 22 November,
- freeze was 0.454 million km2 greater than average (last 10 years), and
- extent was 0.619 million km2 greater than the 2010's average, |(and a mere 84k less than the 2000's average).

On average, on 31st December 80% of extent gain will be done. On 22nd November it was 54%, i.e. on average another circa 2.5 million km2 of extent gain from now to then.

So far this freezing season has been a bit odd. I will wait to see if things settle down a bit.

[litesong]

Gee.... I picked a bin with no votes (4-7). But now bin(4-7) has lots of votes. All this voting is making me second guess myself. 

[Paddy]

I was torn between 3-5 and 4-7, and ulyimstely wrnt for the latter, partly since the former is relatively narrow in  numerical terms (greater than 12.10 and less than 12.34, vs greater than 12.19 and less than 12.47). Honestly, though, I'd not be too surprised by anything between 11.9 and 12.6.

[oren]

I went for a 6-10 vote, but purely on a hunch and with no regional analysis. I get the feeling the lack of winds from the south will continue, helping the ice grow.

[binntho]

I went for a 6-10 vote, but purely on a hunch and with no regional analysis. I get the feeling the lack of winds from the south will continue, helping the ice grow.

Well I stuck my neck out earlier and to be consistent I voted for the first bin, 1-2. This is mostly because I expect that warm southerly winds will reassert themselves, and looking at the forecasts this might happen as early as this coming week on the Atlantic front and the following week on the Pacific front. In the meantime the Canadian cold seems to be about to get a sound kicking, first with an above zero southerly into the southern Hudson Bay, and later with a large and well above average warm mass from the east.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA daily extent increase 23 November just 42k, NSIDC daily extent down by 20k (just to confuse things).

[litesong]

I was torn between 3-5 and 4-7....

TTOORRNNNN BETWEEN TWO LOVERS..........

[litesong]

.....the lack of winds from the south will continue.....

......warm southerly winds will reassert themselves......

Everybody hold their wet fingers in the air...... we'll figger this all out.

[gerontocrat]

I went for a 6-10 vote, but purely on a hunch and with no regional analysis. I get the feeling the lack of winds from the south will continue, helping the ice grow.

"no regional analysis"

To ensure confusion reigns, I have put area graphs for all seas (except those which are already full-up ice) on the 2018 sea ice area and extent thread.

Perhaps I will do it again on December 7th.

[oren]

I went for a 6-10 vote, but purely on a hunch and with no regional analysis. I get the feeling the lack of winds from the south will continue, helping the ice grow.

"no regional analysis"

To ensure confusion reigns, I have put area graphs for all seas (except those which are already full-up ice) on the 2018 sea ice area and extent thread.

Perhaps I will do it again on December 7th.

Thanks for that. Admittedly, my favorite source is Wipneus' regional AMSR2 charts. But what I meant was looking at which seas are normally in growth mode by Dec 31st, which are already full (Hudson) and which still empty. Your charts certainly help clarify confusion, rather than enhance it.

[gerontocrat]

To continue this series of posts intended to cause confusion, I produced a couple of tables giving possible outcomes of JAXA extent as at 31 12 2018.

They are, of course, amazingly accurate, and can be totally relied upon.

Essentially, these scenarios aim at 12.5 million km2, 9th in the table.

[gerontocrat]

I voted 6 to 10.
I would like to change my vote to 2 or 3, but I can't.

The reason is the attached tables, caused by very low extent gain for the last 12 days, and
The attached temp anomaly map that suggests below average extent gain may continue for a few days more.

[Neven]

I voted 6 to 10.
I would like to change my vote to 2 or 3, but I can't.

I've edited the poll. You have two days left to change your vote.

[echoughton]

Where is the poll and exactly what is the poll? Is there a charge?

[echoughton]

FOUND IT! Voted 4-7 right in the middle...like me 

[gerontocrat]

I voted 6 to 10.
I would like to change my vote to 2 or 3, but I can't.

I've edited the poll. You have two days left to change your vote.

Thanks, Neven

[oren]

I feel stupid to do so, but anyway decided to change from 6-10 to 4-7.

[binntho]

Well I'm sticking with number one (and it seems I'm not the only one!). The weather changes in the Atlantic have not been as definite as I expected and the Pacific side is probably not going to hold much longer, but none of the other still-freezing seas are showing any inclination towards gearing up and even HB might be a tad late and not reach 100% until January.

[Juan C. García]

Good idea. Thanks for this poll, Steven. I'll go for 3-5.

+1

[gerontocrat]

Last Post on Jaxa Extent as at 31/12/2018 until 1st Jan (JAXA and/or hangover permitting)

Very low extent gain in December changed things again. IF extent gain from now is average, year end extent will be 12.1 million km2, third lowest, just above 2017 and just below 2010.

Now some suggest that after a period (of nearly 2 weeks) of very low extent gain there must be a bounce back.

Others might say that this 2 weeks of low gain was simply the bounce back from a similar length of very high gains, so no reason to expect above average gains.

Others might say it is simply a crapshoot.
_____________________________________________________

crapshoot
/ˈkrapʃuːt/Submit
nounNORTH AMERICAN
a game of craps.
INFORMAL
a risky or uncertain matter.
"skiing here can be a bit of a crapshoot at any time"

[litesong]

Others might say it is simply a crapshoot.

Our amateur softball team was playing a tournament in Reno. Not a gambler, I never paid attention to the slots while back&forth to baseball games. Once tho, I saw the team softball wives playing the one-armed bandits. The manager's wife began hitting very little jackpots, while feeding a particular machine one silver at a time. Eventually, she ran out of money & left the machine. I thought about getting a hundred silvers & feeding it 3 silvers at a time. But I had games to get to, so didn't. Later, one of the wives said a guy took over the machine for 24 hours...... & cleared $1200. Oh, well. 

[litesong]

I feel stupid to do so, but anyway decided to change from 6-10 to 4-7.

Does that mean I should leave 4-7? I can't make good money if everyone else is sitting on 4-7. You say, this isn't Las Vegas?

[Steven]

The poll is closed.  Distribution of the votes:





For comparison, here is a screenshot that I took on Monday 3 December:



Quite some changes in the last few days...

[Stephan]

I prefer not to change my opinion, therefore I didn't change my vote (like I also didn't in the poll about the JAXA extent minimum for Sept. 2018).

[gerontocrat]

With 21 days to go, this is what Dec 31 extent is looking like at the moment, based on previous years' extent gains.

[jdallen]

With 21 days to go, this is what Dec 31 extent is looking like at the moment, based on previous years' extent gains.

I'm going to be *way* off.  On a hunch, I choose the 8-14 bucket, thinking we might actually have been seeing a stable polar vortex set up.  That would have protected the Arctic from storms - keeping out latent heat as well as permitting more direct radiative loss.

Sadly (for both me and the ice), my hunch was wrong....

[gerontocrat]

With 21 days to go, this is what Dec 31 extent is looking like at the moment, based on previous years' extent gains.

I'm going to be *way* off.  On a hunch, I choose the 8-14 bucket, thinking we might actually have been seeing a stable polar vortex set up.  That would have protected the Arctic from storms - keeping out latent heat as well as permitting more direct radiative loss.

Sadly (for both me and the ice), my hunch was wrong....

An awful lot can happen in 21 days

[charles_oil]

I voted 2-3, then regretted it but couldn't change, then when I could change -I thought I would hang on ... now who knows !  Will leave the dice where they fell at the start!

[gerontocrat]

With just 10 days to go, this is what Dec 31 extent is looking like at the moment, based on previous years' extent gains.

The average result is 12.15 million km2, 3rd lowest, with a range from 11.93 to 12.32 million km2.

[Neven]

Exciting! JAXA is 4th now, so that's where I want it to stay (I voted 3-5). But somehow I think it will end up 2nd.

[be cause]

still happy with my 2-3 . b.c.

[magnamentis]

still happy with my 2-3 . b.c.

+1, same slot

[jdallen]

The cold weather I was betting on based on an intuitive hunch did not arrive.  My 8-14th finish is now so far out of the money as to be laughable.

[litesong]

My 8-14th finish is now so far out of the money as to be laughable.

At least you'll make money as a comedian!

[gerontocrat]

With just 4 days to go, and currently at 3rd, here is a last look at what might happen. It is all rather tight.

Irt looks like just 3 other years apart from 2018 to consider, 2010, 2016, and 2017. Here is a table that looks at what happened in the last 4 days of those years.

Daily Change              date/year     2010   2016          2017         Average 28/12/18    90,581     102,319    -21,026     57,698 29/12/18    80,738     148,454     49,880     67,945 30/12/18    88,696     58,932     19,218     46,295 31/12/18    47,843     11,384     84,001     23,275 gretaer / less than 2018 as at 27 Dec 2018                          +37,439        -70,433    -82,700

If extent gain is average, at 31/12/18 2018 end up as 2nd (see attached table). With very low extent gain, 1st, and with high gain, 4th.

[binntho]

I would think that 2nd place is quite likely, but it's going to be tough getting below 2017 for first place!

[Alison]

Nice to have a quite likely chance of getting it right for a change!

[gerontocrat]

31st Dec 2018 extent was at position No 3 -  12,164,925 km2.

It would have been 2nd but for extent gain of 293 k in the last 3 days, twice the average.

[binntho]

Ah well - would have voted for 1st place if available, but voted 1-2. Close, but no cigar.

So now I'm waiting in nail-biting tension for the maximum, which I foolishly predicted would be the lowest ever ...

[oren]

Fool me voted 6-10 and then changed to 4-7 to no avail.
Volatility is a bitch...

[Alison]

Smug me voted 2 or 3 so I can start the year on a high note - having said that, I think this is the first time in a decade of following the arctic story I’ve got close with a poll such as this

[charles_oil]

Yay - success at last !   Failed to change when I would / should have and amazingly 2-3 came good.